2012-13 NBA Regular Season Thread, Feel the Heat

[Chief Rum]

Soapbox:

Attention, so called sports announcers/broadcasters who sometimes pretend they actually know the NBA: The Clippers have had a tough stretch of late because they are on a long road trip and missing both CP3 (10 games) and Blake (2 games). Stop writing them off as an early season wannabe. They'll be fine. Learn to actually pay attention to what is going on before opening your mouth.

And they're still 37-15.

End soapbox.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

I like his articles too. Feels like he offers a lot more insight and backs it up with data while still keeping a human element to it.

Yeah, I think he's been great at that balance... unlike, say, Kirk Goldsberry who has some very interesting info tucked away, and is pioneering certain things like his shot charts, but writes very poorly.

It is interesting that he mentions getting into as a Celtics blogger, but not really being a fan of theirs since he's gone national. Not that his Celtics coverage Are the Celtics Really This Good Without Rajon Rondo? - The Triangle Blog - Grantland isn't solid, but it's not any better than for other teams, and the blog that he came from did a more insightful piece Why Are The Celtics Playing Better Without Rajon Rondo? | Boston Celtics Basketball - Celtics news, rumors and analysis - CelticsHub.com on the same day.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Yeah, I think he's been great at that balance... unlike, say, Kirk Goldsberry who has some very interesting info tucked away, and is pioneering certain things like his shot charts, but writes very poorly.

I agree 100%. I am a very, very casual NBA fan (hardly ever actually watch games, but I like to follow it), and I find Lowe's articles enjoyable to read, but I can't be bothered with the Goldsberry stuff.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Soapbox:

Attention, so called sports announcers/broadcasters who sometimes pretend they actually know the NBA: The Clippers have had a tough stretch of late because they are on a long road trip and missing both CP3 (10 games) and Blake (2 games). Stop writing them off as an early season wannabe. They'll be fine. Learn to actually pay attention to what is going on before opening your mouth.

And they're still 37-15.

End soapbox.

Sorry Chief, but its the Clippers, they will never win

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

the celtics are A LOT better without rondo

[stevew]

Originally Posted by NorvTurnerOverdrive

the celtics are A LOT better without rondo

No, the sky is falling...time to trade and tear down!

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

ball movement. everyone's assertive. aggressive d. jeff green looks worth the money.

this is best thing that could have happened to the c's

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by NorvTurnerOverdrive

ball movement. everyone's assertive. aggressive d. jeff green looks worth the money.

this is best thing that could have happened to the c's

Well, you may want to hold off raising the banner just yet.

Since losing Rondo, the C's have only played one road game, and have only played one good team that wasn't hobbled by injury. So, really, one very good win and it was at home.

100-98 vs MIA (the good win)
99-81 vs SAC (SAC sucks)
97-84 vs ORL (ORL sucks)
106-104 vs BOS (good team but playing without CP3 and the second game of a B2B)
99-95 @ TOR (your one road game, TOR sucks)
116-95 vs LAL (LAL sucks this year and they don't have Pau)

I haven't watched much Celtics basketball during this stretch, so I don't really have any reason to doubt what you're saying about how they play without Rondo in the lineup. Plus, the C's were pretty horrible in a six game losing streak when they lost Rondo (a mix of good and bad matchups), so you may have something there. I'm just sayign we may want to wait a little longer before saying the Rondo-less Celtics are better than the Rondo-led Celtics.

[larrymcg421]

Celtics have won 6 in a row after losing 6 in a row. But they won 6 in a row before that 6 game losing streak. That streak included road wins at Atlanta and at New York. I definitely think it's too early to say they're better without Rondo.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Celtics have won 6 in a row after losing 6 in a row. But they won 6 in a row before that 6 game losing streak. That streak included road wins at Atlanta and at New York. I definitely think it's too early to say they're better without Rondo.

So the pattern says they're about to embark on a six game losing streak then?

[Chief Rum]

Should be a fun game tonight, Clips @ Heat.

It looks like the Clips could have all of CP3, Blake, Billups and Crawford back for tonight's game. They are all gametime decisions.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Should be a fun game tonight, Clips @ Heat.

It looks like the Clips could have all of CP3, Blake, Billups and Crawford back for tonight's game. They are all gametime decisions.

You may want to keep them away from the Heat. Wade, Bosh and Allen all have the flu with Allen likely out and Wade and Bosh being game time decisions.

[Danny]

This Lakers team is awful. I really hope the Kings can pick it up from their slow start and give me something to root for here over the next few months.

[stevew]

Lakers beat the Bobcats after all. Earl Clark has been a pleasant surprise. I think the Lakers will sneak in as the 7th or 8th seed. 1-2 of Utah, Houston, Portland and Golden State will fall apart.

[stevew]

Jeremy Evans, James White, Eric Bledsoe, Terrence Ross, Gerald Green and Kenneth Faried in the dunk contest.

[stevew]

Kyrie Irving, Steve Novak, Matt Bonner, Paul George, Stephon Curry and Ryan Anderson in the 3pt contest.

[whomario]

James Harden with 35/7/11 on 13-16 shooting

Interesting Steve Novak tidbit (which i think i alluded to before): He still has commited only 5 Turnovers all season. Yes, he never dribles or passes but that´s 5 Tos all season ! He´s now gone 20 games without even 1 TO, he also had 3 in his first 4 games and 2 in 43 games since then.

Has there ever been a player that embodied the "3 point specialist" more than Novak ?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by whomario

Has there ever been a player that embodied the "3 point specialist" more than Novak ?

Now that Brian Cardinal is retired I doubt it.

In '10-'11 Cardinal had one of the most remarkable seasons I've ever seen. He had 43 field goals. 42 of them were from 3. Every basket he made that season was assisted on.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by stevew

I think the Lakers will sneak in as the 7th or 8th seed. 1-2 of Utah, Houston, Portland and Golden State will fall apart.

If they can't win 5 of their next 7 I think they are dead. @ Mia, Pho, LAC, Bos, Port, @ Dal, @ Den. I think MIA and DEN are both loses (Denver is on no days rest. Also 2 of the 4 best home records.) Utah may fall if they trade away Jefferson but the Lakers need more help then depending on a trade hurting another team.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Celtics have won 6 in a row after losing 6 in a row. But they won 6 in a row before that 6 game losing streak. That streak included road wins at Atlanta and at New York. I definitely think it's too early to say they're better without Rondo.

The win @ NY was sans Rondo as well. Here's the thing, there's no question that this team was better with "playoff" Rondo (and probably needed that player to have a chance of beating multiple good teams in the playoffs), but that player only showed up when matched up against Westbrook, CP3, DRose, or the Heat. They're definitely a better regular season team without him. A 2-month injury to him would have been the best thing for him, Doc, and the team.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, you may want to hold off raising the banner just yet.

Na, to hell with it, let's just put up the banner. Is there some rule against that?

[stevew]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

If they can't win 5 of their next 7 I think they are dead. @ Mia, Pho, LAC, Bos, Port, @ Dal, @ Den. I think MIA and DEN are both loses (Denver is on no days rest. Also 2 of the 4 best home records.) Utah may fall if they trade away Jefferson but the Lakers need more help then depending on a trade hurting another team.

They are only like 3.5 games out still. They have 10 losses left before they are dead.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by stevew

They are only like 3.5 games out still. They have 10 losses left before they are dead.

Assuming that the Rockets and Jazz play under .500 ball. 9 losses with those teams playing .500 puts them in for sure without having to worry about a tie breaker. Then again you have to assume that 2 teams who have played above .500 won't continue to play above .500 the rest of the season. Houston has a stretch in Feb where they don't travel for 12 straight games I believe. If they come out of this 7 game stretch going 3-4 then go ahead and throw the dirt on them.

Dwight will be too "injured" to play and they don't have any depth to lose another player. Howard is the most overrated player there is in the NBA and the Lakers brass bought into it.

[whomario]

Nuggets with their 9th straight. I must admit i didn´t catch this at first either, but the so-so start for them can easily eplained by them playing a total of 10 (!) home games (out of 32 total) until the end of december. Now that this reversed (only 4 road games since the new year) they are on a roll and now stand at 33-18 overall.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by whomario

Nuggets with their 9th straight. I must admit i didn´t catch this at first either, but the so-so start for them can easily eplained by them playing a total of 10 (!) home games (out of 32 total) until the end of december. Now that this reversed (only 4 road games since the new year) they are on a roll and now stand at 33-18 overall.

Troy pointed out the tough early season schedule, I remember.

[stevew]

Cavs might sign Oden. I think it's worth the risk. Won't happen until after the deadline though, as the Cavs are going to try to steal some more players for free ala the grizzlies trade.

[nol]

Interesting question: who do you think will have the better NBA career from this point forward - Oden or Andrew Bynum? The fact that it's not a slam dunk to choose Bynum is probably illustrative of the Cavs' thinking on this deal, since they were considering going after Bynum with max money.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by whomario

Nuggets with their 9th straight. I must admit i didn´t catch this at first either, but the so-so start for them can easily eplained by them playing a total of 10 (!) home games (out of 32 total) until the end of december. Now that this reversed (only 4 road games since the new year) they are on a roll and now stand at 33-18 overall.

Yep, the early season schedule was beyond brutal. Not only were there tons of road games, there were a ton of back to backs on the road. Even though they have caught up in road vs. home games, they have still played 9 games on the road in backs to backs vs. only one at home (3-6 on the road, 1-0 at home thus far, with two more coming this week on the road)

The amazing thing about them hovering around .500 through that start is Ty Lawson and Gallinari were playing like garbage during the entire time. The home games have heated them up and things look good.

While I should be looking forward to the rest of the season, I'm still dreading it. Karl just has the most idiotic rotations I have ever seen. He has a fascination with small ball. Take last night in Cleveland. Koufas and McGee combine to go 11-15 (23 points), 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 blocked shots and 1 turnover in 35 minutes.

Neither player played in the last 8 minutes of the game. Of course, the Nuggets win, so everyone doesn't pay attention to the fact our center the last 8 minutes of the game was Faried.

Now, I love me some Faried. I think he's one of the ridiculously underrated players in this league. But he isn't a center and that's where he finishes about 50% of his games. I also love Andre Miller, but what happens over and over and over again is Karl decides Andre needs to play the entire fourth quarter or most of it. It kills the Nuggets in two ways:

1) Dre runs the offense 20-40% of the time which slows them WAY the hell down, which is not how the first unit should operate)

2) When Ty runs the offense during this time, Dre becomes a serious liability at a key offensive spot. Dre can't spot up for three. He's slow as mud in transition defense if Ty loses the ball, and he's useless as an offensive rebounder.

So, to sum it up, instead of having Ty, Iggy, Gallo, Faried and a 7 footer, we remove the 7 footer for Dre. We improve in ball handling slightly in exchange for getting worse at pace, rebounding (both offensive and defensive), interior defense, and shooting.

Great exchange there, huh? All of that said, just like I stated early in the year, they are a fun team to watch and they have a ridiculous amount of talent. The four guys who don't play on a nightly basis (Mozgov, Fournier, Hamilton and Randolph) would all be in the rotation for most NBA teams. Their athleticism allows them to stay with most teams, even when they aren't playing their best. (for example, they stayed within 8 points in a game at Portland this year when they didn't make a single shot from outside the painted area and went 0-22 from the three point line)

The problem is great coaches and teams will out scheme the Nuggets. Instead of having so many talented pieces that you simply can't out scheme them and have to work your ass off to beat them, you simply need to wait for Karl to throw the small ball lineup out there for 5 straight minutes and get back into a game.

One thing is for certain. . . if you have a bad defensive transition night against this team, you are screwed. (see Chicago earlier this week)

One last thing: The Nuggets have played the 4th toughest schedule in the league to this point. A lot of cup cakes coming up even with the home/road split playing itself out. They are in good shape for a top 4 seed.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by nol

Interesting question: who do you think will have the better NBA career from this point forward - Oden or Andrew Bynum? The fact that it's not a slam dunk to choose Bynum is probably illustrative of the Cavs' thinking on this deal, since they were considering going after Bynum with max money.

I dont see much evidence to think Oden will even have a NBA career at this point. I feel bad for him but realistically you have to think he will just get hurt again.

I guess I dont have the most faith in Bynum either and his durability but youd have to think he can settle in to a 20-26 minute player to keep him somewhat healthy.

[Groundhog]

The odds aren't good, but certainly it's worth the gamble at the right price.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

There may be a bit of Ewing theory potential here. The Celtics are much better on defense without Rondo in the lineup [albeit a small sample size] and they still need to get a smaller rotation down. They are equipped as well as they could be to absorb the loss. Losing a big man would be a lot worse. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Looking good so far even with the big man loss. Regardless of the outcome of the Denver game, getting down to a 9 man rotation has been great.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Looking good so far even with the big man loss. Regardless of the outcome of the Denver game, getting down to a 9 man rotation has been great.

Typically I think the Ewing Theory is BS for most players when it's brought up. This is one of the rare instances where I think there's something to it.

Rondo's defense isn't as good as it was early in his career and he's been living off of reputation the last couple of seasons. He also seems to be a guy that's obsessed with his assist totals and plays for stats in general. The other downside of having Rondo is he seems to be afraid to get to the free throw line since he isn't a very good free throw shooter for a guard. A guy that is as quick as he is and penetrates as easily as he does should be getting to the line at least twice as often as he does.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

Originally Posted by stevew

Cavs might sign Oden. I think it's worth the risk. Won't happen until after the deadline though, as the Cavs are going to try to steal some more players for free ala the grizzlies trade.

dude has one leg longer than the other. modern medicine is some crazy shit but i don't know that's something a brittle 7 footer can overcome

[stevew]

I'm not saying Oden will ever be anything more than 50 games or 1000 minutes per season, but I'm hoping we can strike gold like we did with Z. He was thought to be a lost cause. Ideally Oden can help close out games. It's not like we'd pay him anything more than pocket change. If you get nothing out of him it's a small risk

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

i read it was 2 year deal which at any price seems risky

[stevew]

Originally Posted by NorvTurnerOverdrive

i read it was 2 year deal which at any price seems risky

It's probably a 3 year deal with a team option on the third. I mean it's the NBA where throwing away 25% on the cap in shit players is not uncommon. I also read Oden was an alcoholic and possibly addicted to like Fentanyl. Anyways here's hoping he can turn his life around.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

Originally Posted by stevew

I also read Oden was an alcoholic and possibly addicted to like Fentanyl.

rock solid

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by NorvTurnerOverdrive

dude has one leg longer than the other. modern medicine is some crazy shit but i don't know that's something a brittle 7 footer can overcome

Let's first see how he does when someone tries rehabbing him with modern medicinal techniques - Greg Oden? Brandon Roy?: What!?! What Happened? « zigsports

Unless there's something about the exact specifics of the salary cap situation or the owner's budget I would absolutely take a flyer on Oden at like $5m/y for 2 years (if that is the true asking price). He wasn't a project like Hasheem Thabeet when he came out - he was a 7-footer with IQ and decent hands, and even at 20-25 minutes a night that's worth more than $5m. Even amongst the Kevin Durant fanboys who thought he would be a transcendent scorer (of which I like to count myself), it was a legit debate who should go #1. I would love it if the Celtics signed him (and rumor has it we're among the finalists with Cleveland and maybe LA.)

Originally Posted by Atocep

Typically I think the Ewing Theory is BS for most players when it's brought up. This is one of the rare instances where I think there's something to it.

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

We've actually had a better +/- with Rondo off the court than on, largely due to his lackadaisical nature on defense, but also due to his tendency at times to pass up very very good shots to try and get an assist. He's certainly a unique and fun player to watch, and we'll see if those numbers hold up during a longer-term absence, but Rondo is mercurial and enigmatic to say the least, and too often this season he wasn't playing his best.

That's what I posted the day his injury was announced, and I think it's telling there are 3 words that are basically code for Rondo wasn't giving 100%. It's kind of unbelievable given what kind of a town Boston is, especially seeing as KG is his teammate, but it's like people (starting with KG, Pierce, Doc and Ainge, but effectively extending to the city as a whole) collectively made a decision that he's such a petulant, sensitive (and let's not forget tough - he did go 2 OT's and 2 days with an ACL tear before mentioning it) guy who steps up for big games and the playoffs that we'll ignore the other 80% where he isn't.

It's still hard to say exactly what % of the problem was him, and what was on Doc, and what Doc knew was wrong but didn't show, but the most obvious reason our offense is better is because we bring the ball up court 2-3 seconds faster without Rondo, and initiate play #1 of a possession with 15 seconds on the shot clock instead of 9. It's a simple change, but in a league where a large percentage of games between good teams are decided in the final minute, having even 4-5 less rushed shots a game is a pretty big difference. I will say that my enjoyment and anticipation of Celtics games have gone up a lot without Rondo. And, no, I don't think we'll win without him and I'd love to have him in the 4th quarter of a potential game 7 vs Miami or Indiana, but I'm pretty sure no one's going to offer a blockbuster young star for Pierce or KG, so I'll be happy to watch this team go to war again this spring.

Curious what TroyF has to say. "Good" loss for Denver tonight as far as that can go... 2nd night of a back to back, had at least one really bad call they can point to (the review with 1 min left of I want to OT #2 where they gave it to the Celtics after it was obvious Jeff Green touched it last*), probably two hero three's by the Celtics (Green's and Pierce's), and I'll definitely agree that 8 of their 9 man rotation are ridiculously athletic (and even Andre Miller has some unbelievable finishes in traffic). Fun team.

* - It's 2013. If you're going to (repeatedly) stop the game to check calls, spend the $2000 to buy a 50-inch monitor. This isn't an NBA thing - it's football too, and happens at the pro and college level, but it's absurd in any televised athletic endeavor that the average fan at home or in a bar has a clearer picture than the refs.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

i guess if you can't lure fa's you gotta take chances but for 50 bucks i'll drive to gilbert's house and kick him in the balls. they'll save cap space and the outcome will be the same

[murrayyyyy]

Warriors to unveil jersey with sleeves - San Jose Mercury News

Either the article is wrong or something changed. I heard it was Feb 20th when they would play in a sleeved jersey with the Suns also having a new sleeved jersey.

Looks good on fit guys, fat guys may not like em.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Warriors to unveil jersey with sleeves - San Jose Mercury News

Either the article is wrong or something changed. I heard it was Feb 20th when they would play in a sleeved jersey with the Suns also having a new sleeved jersey.

Looks good on fit guys, fat guys may not like em.

Anyone remember the Unitard?



Anyways, Jersey's with sleeves...i wonder which person in the Warriors office thought of that?

[Groundhog]

Looks like a Golden State cycling team jersey.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Typically I think the Ewing Theory is BS for most players when it's brought up. This is one of the rare instances where I think there's something to it.

Rondo's defense isn't as good as it was early in his career and he's been living off of reputation the last couple of seasons. He also seems to be a guy that's obsessed with his assist totals and plays for stats in general. The other downside of having Rondo is he seems to be afraid to get to the free throw line since he isn't a very good free throw shooter for a guard. A guy that is as quick as he is and penetrates as easily as he does should be getting to the line at least twice as often as he does.

His advanced stats have been only a little above average this year. I agree he's been living off the superstar label when in reality he's been slightly above average.

So any talent drop-off may actually prove to be an increase if some players continue to step up.

[Groundhog]

There is no reason for Rondo not being a Tony Parker-like scorer other than his obsession with assists. He's made himself the one-dimensional Rodman of passing.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

There is no reason for Rondo not being a Tony Parker-like scorer other than his obsession with assists. He's made himself the one-dimensional Rodman of passing.

that´s underrating just how incredibly skilled and versatile a scorer Parker has become.
Iagree with the general sentiment, but Parker isn´t the realistic scenario.

Twolves with a win over Cleveland, Rubio continuing to look solid scoring the ball after that dismal start. Last 9 games : 13 ppg, 8 Apg, 44% from the field. Also continues to get to the line (actually leads all PGs in FTA/FGA)
I think he´ll be just fine as a scorer eventually.

[murrayyyyy]

And more good news out of LaLa land

Earl Clark was sent in this morning for an MRI for a sore right foot. Results pending.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by whomario

that´s underrating just how incredibly skilled and versatile a scorer Parker has become.
Iagree with the general sentiment, but Parker isn´t the realistic scenario.

Oh I definitely don't underestimate Parker's scoring ability... Ever since the Cavs-Spurs finals travesty I've been well aware of how good a scorer Parker can be.

Once he started being able to shoot those long 2s as well when the defender goes under the screen he just became almost impossible to stop.

All I mean is that with Rondo's quickness and ability to finish around the rim, he's a jumpshot away from being able to score at will too.

[nol]

It goes hand in hand with developing a jumper, but he'd also need to be a much better free throw shooter. If he stays at the 60 percent level, attacking the rim isn't a worthwhile proposition, in terms of both offensive efficiency and the increased physical toll.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by nol

It goes hand in hand with developing a jumper, but he'd also need to be a much better free throw shooter. If he stays at the 60 percent level, attacking the rim isn't a worthwhile proposition, in terms of both offensive efficiency and the increased physical toll.

Yes true, and look at Tony Parker's career stats. Dude was not a good FT shooter - maybe not Rondo-bad, but definitely below average for a guard. Took him some time, but he turned it around once the time spent working on his overall shooting touch began to pay off. The Celtics, especially moving forward to next season and beyond, need Rondo to show the same level of commitment to improving that side of his game. He's just not worth his money otherwise.

[stevew]

That knee injury to Nerlens Noel looks pretty serious. Hopefully that doesn't hurt his earning potential once he gets to leave the NCAA serfdom.

really good piece on Shaun Livingston up on Grantland.

On the career of Shaun Livingston, who survived one of the worst injuries in NBA history - Grantland