The Biden Presidency - 2020

[cartman]

One of the most openly corrupt politicians in the country might finally be facing the music. The Texas AG Ken Paxton has had 20 impeachment articles filed against him by the Texas House. Debate starts on them tomorrow at 1pm Central.

[Edward64]

Nice, another 4 days to play with.

Treasury says it won’t run out money until at least June 5, buying time for debt ceiling talks

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cartman

One of the most openly corrupt politicians in the country might finally be facing the music. The Texas AG Ken Paxton has had 20 impeachment articles filed against him by the Texas House. Debate starts on them tomorrow at 1pm Central.

Saw something about how they were burning papers in a dumpster outside the office and he was soliciting donations recently from people charged with crimes for reduced sentences. Law and order party!

[RainMaker]

Well it appears Paxton's wife is in the Texas Senate and gets to be part of the jury for her husband's impeachment. You might think that's good for him, but one of the accusations is he had an affair with a staffer in another Senator's office!

[Ksyrup]

Only the best people.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Well it appears Paxton's wife is in the Texas Senate and gets to be part of the jury for her husband's impeachment. You might think that's good for him, but one of the accusations is he had an affair with a staffer in another Senator's office!

Man everything is bigger in Texas, including the scandals.

[Thomkal]

I saw he tweeted something about impeaching him would overturn the results of a free and fair election which is pretty ironic since he never said that about Biden's win

[Brian Swartz]

Apparently for the first time in at least 20 years, personal credit card debt did not decline over the first quarter of the year. Usually of course that happens as people pay off their Christmas charges etc. It was basically flat instead.

That is probably not a good economic sign.

[Atocep]

Paxton impeached. He's a moron if he doesn't just resign because this wasn't close. 121-yes to 23-no

With Texas law he's immediately removed from office and awaits the Senate vote.

[GrantDawg]

Did his wife vote for impeachment?

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[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Did his wife vote for impeachment?

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From my understanding, she is in the Senate, and would vote after his trial there. I do wonder what she will vote on the charge that he had an affair and gave her a job so they could be close to one another.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Paxton impeached. He's a moron if he doesn't just resign because this wasn't close. 121-yes to 23-no

With Texas law he's immediately removed from office and awaits the Senate vote.

There's a school of thought that the only mistake Nixon made was resigning.

You fight until they drag you out--especially if you want to keep your base of political support.

[albionmoonlight]

Deal in principle reached on debt ceiling.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Deal in principle reached on debt ceiling.

It's going to be interesting to see how the vote splits on this. You're going to have a lot of people on both sides unhappy.

[GrantDawg]

It not nearly as bad as I expected if it is what is reported. The question is can it pass?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It not nearly as bad as I expected if it is what is reported. The question is can it pass?

Sounds like the dems caved the most on the work requirements. Nothing sounded too crazy, but I haven't seen much in the way of details.

Early opinions seem to be that the GOP hardliners are not happy at all.

[GrantDawg]

The GOP right and the Dems left were never going yo be happy on any compromise. That's why I wonder if it can get a majority in the House or passed the filibuster in the Senate.

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[Lathum]

So will this lead to a no confidence vote of McCarthy?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So will this lead to a no confidence vote of McCarthy?

I think the biggest problem for anyone that wants a vote on McCarthy is the fact that no one else wants to try to lead team crazy.

[Lathum]

I mean....Just....wow

Burchett: I voted to shut the government down under Trump and I’ll do it under Biden
Acosta: This is not government shutdown. This is a default.
Burchett: It’s not a default, it’s a delay. if you can’t pay it off this week, we pay it off next week pic.twitter.com/De7l1yozJ3

— Acyn (@Acyn) May 27, 2023

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The GOP right and the Dems left were never going yo be happy on any compromise. That's why I wonder if it can get a majority in the House or passed the filibuster in the Senate.

This is true.

But congrats to Joe & McCarthy for getting this far at least. My guess is there'll be some last minute finagling, but there's enough compromise for both sides to declare victory and get it pushed through. The $80B for the IRS has been claw backed some (to help pay for the other stuff) but I've not seen any definitive $ yet.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Sounds like the dems caved the most on the work requirements. Nothing sounded too crazy, but I haven't seen much in the way of details.

Early opinions seem to be that the GOP hardliners are not happy at all.

Went from age 49 to 54 on SNAP for work requirements, and expires in 2030. Vets and homeless are exempted

[Lathum]

The gross thing is Joe and the Dems fought like hell for Vets yet the GOP will still claim they are the party of the military and most vets will vote republican.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The gross thing is Joe and the Dems fought like hell for Vets yet the GOP will still claim they are the party of the military and most vets will vote republican.

They never do, and it makes no sense. Republicans stand in the way of military benefits and quality of life improves for soldiers at every turn, but some how they are the "pro-defense" party. Why? Because they write blank checks to their military contractor buddies? It is amazing to me how some of the poorest people in this country will bend over backwards to make billionaires even richer.

[miami_fan]

Old man alert!

We have been here before guys.

Obama agreed to spending cuts to end the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. Here's what happened next | CNN Politics

Let's see if we actually want these cuts when they are supposed to happen.

[BYU 14]

You know it's just brinkmanship with these guys, the GOP is great at creating fear of catastrophe, then quietly acquiescing when they think no one is looking.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

You know it's just brinkmanship with these guys, the GOP is great at creating fear of catastrophe, then quietly acquiescing when they think no one is looking.

Which is why DeSantis continuing to fight Disney was/is so weird.

Give a big press conference about fighting Woke Disney.

Then, a few months later, when no one is really paying attention, give Disney what it wants. No hard feelings, etc.

I guess credit to him for really meaning it.

[albionmoonlight]

Biden accuser Tara Reade is apparently in Russia now.

[Atocep]

Dan Bishop plans to trigger the vote process to oust McCarthy, but I don't see it going anywhere. As I said before, no one else wants that job.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Dan Bishop plans to trigger the vote process to oust McCarthy, but I don't see it going anywhere. As I said before, no one else wants that job.

I doubt he'll even trigger the vote.

This is just waving the threat stick around so he can get some attention and some favor down the line from the GOP establishment.

Very very politics as ususal.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Can the House run without a Speaker?

I know that it could not start without a Speaker.

But would, like, the seniormost Rep become acting speaker or something?

[BYU 14]

They would just get less done than they do now, as low as that bar is

[GrantDawg]

I'm pretty sure when there is no speaker then by rule that can be the only business of the House. They can basically set rules and schedules around the Speaker vote, but they can't introduce legislation.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I doubt he'll even trigger the vote.

This is just waving the threat stick around so he can get some attention and some favor down the line from the GOP establishment.

Very very politics as ususal.

I could see them doing that after the debt thing is passed. If he did it now, you have a split screen of the economy in a free fall next to the GOP having their 27th vote on a new Speakership. There's bad optics, and then there's shooting yourself in the dick on national TV.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm pretty sure when there is no speaker then by rule that can be the only business of the House. They can basically set rules and schedules around the Speaker vote, but they can't introduce legislation.

I believe this is correct And getting that vote together will likely take months with the different cliques or crazy in the GOP trying to get it done.

[GrantDawg]

Lol. The CBO says the added work requirements to SNAP actually adds to deficit. It will actually cost way more to enforce than any savings. The cruelty is the point.

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[albionmoonlight]

The HFC are firebrands.

They are like the people on leftist twitter who argue that if President Biden would just liberal harder, then he'd force Mitch McConnell to agree to everything the Democrats want.

It's the same thing. The HFC wants everything they want and to give nothing in return. Which is fun to say.

McCarthy had to actually make a deal, so he had to actually give and take with the WH. It is unrealistic to say that if he'd just MAGAd harder, then Biden would have given him everything he wanted.

So the bill will pass. And then there will be lots of talk of a discharge petition. But nothing will get filed because on some level they have to know that they are better positioned with McCarthy as Speaker giving them a huge megaphone but able to actually legislate when needed.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Lol. The CBO says the added work requirements to SNAP actually adds to deficit. It will actually cost way more to enforce than any savings. The cruelty is the point.

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It's not really any different from the required drug tests red states were implementing. They get so obsessed with catching the people they think are cheating the system that they don't care about the cost. They just don't want someone getting someone they feel they don't deserve for free.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The HFC are firebrands.

They are like the people on leftist twitter who argue that if President Biden would just liberal harder, then he'd force Mitch McConnell to agree to everything the Democrats want.

It's the same thing. The HFC wants everything they want and to give nothing in return. Which is fun to say.

McCarthy had to actually make a deal, so he had to actually give and take with the WH. It is unrealistic to say that if he'd just MAGAd harder, then Biden would have given him everything he wanted.

So the bill will pass. And then there will be lots of talk of a discharge petition. But nothing will get filed because on some level they have to know that they are better positioned with McCarthy as Speaker giving them a huge megaphone but able to actually legislate when needed.

Yep, when you have a split government in this political climate, there really aren't going to be any clear cut winners. It's accepting a compromise that you can stomach.

Biden has done an excellent job, for the most part, handling things without trying to expand executive power. There are faults you can find and things you may not agree with, but "why hasn't he done XXXX far left thing" isn't a legit complaint. One of the furthest left things he's done on his own is partially wiping out student debt, which is very likely getting shot down by the supreme court. Yet, he was constantly knocked for not doing it quick enough and then not wiping out more debt.

What it comes down to is the same thing that's been said for the past few election cycles. If the progressives want a more progressive government then they need to treat every single election like it's the most important of their lifetimes.

[Brian Swartz]

The only real alternative is to accept that no actual policy gets enacted/changed, go full bully pulpit, and then when the other side votes everything down you campaign on getting more representation in the next Congress. Neither way works great in practice - nothing does in a divided government as noted - but the whole bit of politics being the art of the possible definitely comes into play. You might keep the base by refusing to compromise, but you'll lose the middle and the base typically isn't enough to win.

Originally Posted by bronconick

There's bad optics, and then there's shooting yourself in the dick on national TV.

I'm not 100% sure they aren't dumb enough to do that. I agree with you it probably doesn't happen, but these days I put very little into the 'that will never happen' basket. Ever since Trump was elected in '16, I've just basically been in 'the sky - or sewer if you prefer - is the limit. Almost nothing is beyond the realm of possibility'.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Lol. The CBO says the added work requirements to SNAP actually adds to deficit. It will actually cost way more to enforce than any savings. The cruelty is the point.

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To your point

But CBO’s score presents a potential problem for McCarthy. The work requirements provisions in the package would boost enrollment in the food stamps program by 78,000 people in an average month when fully implemented, as well as increase spending by $2.1 billion over the decade.

But taken as a whole, I'm okay with it. If true without any changes in the future, a pretty good compromise overall $1.5T > $2.1B.

According to a Congressional Budget Office analysis released Tuesday night, the bill would reduce budget deficits by $1.5 trillion over a decade. By contrast, the debt limit legislation passed by House Republicans in late April would have cut deficits by $4.8 trillion, according to the agency.

[Ksyrup]

I see that one of the debt ceiling compromises is that student loan payments will resume by late August.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I see that one of the debt ceiling compromises is that student loan payments will resume by late August.

Gotta free up the money for another farmers, who hate socialism, bail out.

[Edward64]

Welcome, the more the merrier

Chris Christie to announce GOP presidential campaign next week

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Welcome, the more the merrier

Okay, all of the non-Trump candidates will need to draw straws to see who gets to run. We need to concentrate the not-Trump opposition to one single candidate. No clown car.

[Lathum]

They wont. They are all banking on him either not running because of legal troubles, or his legal troubles disqualifying him in the eyes of enough voters that they end up picking up enough pieces.

What will actually happen is his zealots couldn't care less about his legal troubles and he will secure the nomination with 38% of the vote.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Welcome, the more the merrier

I'd love to get into the mind of the 2023 primary voter who is excited by this announcement.

"I don't like Trump or DeSantis or Haley or Scott or Pence or Hutchinson. But, man, Christie really brings something to the table!"

[Atocep]

I really think some of these people, like Christie, think they can peel the non-maga GOP away and beat Trump.

I think it's doable, but it's really trying to thread the needle. You have to essentially get the few remaining moderate Republicans and most or all of the evangelicals. The problem there is if you split those votes at all Trump wins easily.

As crazy as it sounds, I think Pence could have been the one to pull it off but he needed to go on the offensive against Trump really early and spill the tea.

[albionmoonlight]

I get why Christie is running. What's the joke? What does every governor and senator see when they look in the mirror? A president.

I'm just trying to picture the voter who would look at this field and decide on Christie. And I'm having trouble doing it.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I get why Christie is running. What's the joke? What does every governor and senator see when they look in the mirror? A president.

I'm just trying to picture the voter who would look at this field and decide on Christie. And I'm having trouble doing it.

Someone that hasn't followed anything politically in the past decade?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Someone that hasn't followed anything politically in the past decade?

He's locked up the just-woke-up-from-a-coma market, LOL.