WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The more I think about it, the more this rankles me.

Cronin are you REALLY suggesting we should just keep our info to ourselves and if we die take it down with us? You really don't think that through multiple scans we can gather an accurate aggregate picture of not only how accurate individuals are, but also which sides players are on?

Barkeep, I agree that we need to get the information out there, but I noted fairly early on that we might want to ration our information a little bit to avoid making it too easy for the wolves. I'm not saying I have any particular ideas (and short of a specific plan that everyone agrees with, full disclosure is best), but I don't think cronin's crazy to be raising the idea.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.

I'm pretty good with stats and I have to say that I can't think of an easy way of doing this.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Barkeep, I agree that we need to get the information out there, but I noted fairly early on that we might want to ration our information a little bit to avoid making it too easy for the wolves. I'm not saying I have any particular ideas (and short of a specific plan that everyone agrees with, full disclosure is best), but I don't think cronin's crazy to be raising the idea.

If I thought he were crazy I'd have ignored it or voted for him rather than engage him. I don't think he's crazy, but I do think it's a bad idea.

[Pumpy Tudors]

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.

I say this because I really don't want "no lynch" to win. We have to take somebody out tonight, just to get some information.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

I'd recomment doing the math through correctly before making decisions based on it. On average, we're about 50% accurate, although there will be large swings. At this point, it's a little surprising that anyone would come up with all four scans as anything, seer or wolf. I haven't tried to work out whether the odds favor the scans all being right or all being wrong, but at this point, our scans are mainly useful for a) figuring who can spot wolves and who can't, and b) leaving a scan trail for use later in the game.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Actually I was assuming even less than that, 33% accuracy (to play it safe with the numbers)

There's nothing "safe" about assuming 33% accuracy, since 67% inaccuracy is really equivalent to 67% accuracy, only inverted. The safe choice is to assume that everyone's around 50%.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.

The reason this is so hard is that we don't know who is a wolf and who is not. It could be that as few as 1 person got their scan right or as many as 12 got it right (assuming 4 wolves). So the odds are somewhere between 5% and 60%.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I'd recomment doing the math through correctly before making decisions based on it. On average, we're about 50% accurate, although there will be large swings. At this point, it's a little surprising that anyone would come up with all four scans as anything, seer or wolf. I haven't tried to work out whether the odds favor the scans all being right or all being wrong, but at this point, our scans are mainly useful for a) figuring who can spot wolves and who can't, and b) leaving a scan trail for use later in the game.

There's only a 1/16 chance that everyone gets it right or wrong so about a 1/8 that 4 people viewing one person all come up with the same scan.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The advantage the village has to staying quiet: potentially the teacher's pet and class clown live an extra day or more. Hypothetically, if we lose one tonight and one tomorrow night, we are pretty much fucked. Am I wrong?

Yes, you're wrong that we're pretty much fucked if we lose them. We are reasonably likely to have several other high-accuracy (but imperfect) seers. The wolves will be going after all of them, but it's going to be until day 3 or day 4 when they can really start to home in on those roles, and by then we'll have a decent base of information.

Along those lines, I think we should have some discussion about the extent to which we want to repeat scanning of people. Repeat scans give more information about accuracy, but at the expense of better coverage for the more accurate seers.

[st.cronin]

I'm actually starting to think that people aren't being forthcoming - no n-0 wolf scans, 4 villager scans on BK. I wonder if some villagers aren't playing the disinformation game..

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The reason this is so hard is that we don't know who is a wolf and who is not. It could be that as few as 1 person got their scan right or as many as 12 got it right (assuming 4 wolves). So the odds are somewhere between 5% and 60%.

This is wrong. 3 is the minimum number of people who could have had a correct scan last night. So the range is 15-60 percent chance of getting the teacher's pet or class clown.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Yes, you're wrong that we're pretty much fucked if we lose them. We are reasonably likely to have several other high-accuracy (but imperfect) seers. The wolves will be going after all of them, but it's going to be until day 3 or day 4 when they can really start to home in on those roles, and by then we'll have a decent base of information.

Along those lines, I think we should have some discussion about the extent to which we want to repeat scanning of people. Repeat scans give more information about accuracy, but at the expense of better coverage for the more accurate seers.

I think accuracy has to be the name of the game early on.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't like SnDvls, who has played in enough games on FOFC to know better, voting No Lynch Day 2.

I can see you point if it was day 3 or after, but it's day 2!!! we have no solid info to go one and this at least gives the Teacher's Pet a fighting chance to get in another view...heck even the Class Clown can help us at this point.

This isn't a typical WW game where the seer 1) knows their role and 2) can announce it without having doubt once they've done several scans.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math.

It depends on what, exactly, we got out of N0.

Based purely on a single night of scans, they basically have no firm info; anybody who was right could be the Teacher's Pet, and anybody who was wrong could be the Fool.

As we add nights onto that, their odds of picking those two out rise, but I think they're going to need to be really lucky to get both of them early.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm actually starting to think that people aren't being forthcoming - no n-0 wolf scans, 4 villager scans on BK. I wonder if some villagers aren't playing the disinformation game..

Well if they are we could be really sin screwed in a couple of different ways (if they're the class clown/teacher's pet or if they have scans in common with those players).

To give one example: let's say I'm a regular villager. Let's say I scan you and find you're a wolf. I lie and post that you're a villager. The next day you get lynched. I then appear to be less accurate than I really am, thus diminishing my credibility. This problem is only compounded if I turn out to be the cc/tp.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I can see you point if it was day 3 or after, but it's day 2!!! we have no solid info to go one and this at least gives the Teacher's Pet a fighting chance to get in another view...heck even the Class Clown can help us at this point.

This isn't a typical WW game where the seer 1) knows their role and 2) can announce it without having doubt once they've done several scans.

We're not going to have a better idea of the accuracy of our information tomorrow, we're just going to have more information. The longer we wait to start finding out about the accuracy of our information, the worse it is.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think accuracy has to be the name of the game early on.

The thing is, though, let's assume (for the sake of argument) that I'm 10% accurate. I had my one good read on Passacaglia on night 0, and now I keep scanning him. By day 4, it will be pretty obvious to the wolves that I'm low accuracy and thus high risk, so they kill me. At that point, the survivors have to lynch Passacaglia to figure out how accurate I was, and when they find he's just a villager, there has been ZERO value derived from my scans.

We have to have balance. I'm not going to scan Passacaglia again tonight.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

There's nothing "safe" about assuming 33% accuracy, since 67% inaccuracy is really equivalent to 67% accuracy, only inverted. The safe choice is to assume that everyone's around 50%.

But it depends what you are using the number for.
Like I said, I'm not using that 80% confidence level to make an actual decision about vote or not-vote BK. I'm just using it to put him in the pile of people that aren't the best logical choice right now.

Get what I'm saying?

I mean yeah, I wouldn't stake my life on those numbers, but for that purpose, it's fine.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well if they are we could be really sin screwed in a couple of different ways (if they're the class clown/teacher's pet or if they have scans in common with those players).

To give one example: let's say I'm a regular villager. Let's say I scan you and find you're a wolf. I lie and post that you're a villager. The next day you get lynched. I then appear to be less accurate than I really am, thus diminishing my credibility. This problem is only compounded if I turn out to be the cc/tp.

If I assume you're a villager, isn't it highly likely that one of the players scanning you is the teacher's pet?

[jeheinz72]

Just to have it for posterity's sake, Night 1

Clap scanned twice, 1 good, 1 bad
Pass scanned twice, 2 bad
Lathum scanned five times, 3 bad, 2 good
BK scanned 4 times, all 4 good
Chief Rum scanned twice, 2 good
nfg scanned once, 1 bad
DC scanned once, 1 bad
RendeR scanned once, 1 good

People with "true" scans

MikeVic, St. Cronin, jeheinz72: 1


Take all of this with a grain of salt, but I think it's going to be information that's helpful to keep a running tally of

[jeheinz72]

For the record, I'm completely eliminating factoring in any N0 results. Something is definitely weird with what happened there. So take the 2nd section as just an addendum for now, those are all "true" scans but were N0 scans.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Since I am most likely going dow at this point, I have one request kill Lathum tommorow when I come up clean. As of now I know I am clean. Lathum is getting the masses behind me over two words I said. Whatever, tommorow you will see.

Vote Lathum

I didn't even vote for you

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

OK. Seriously. I have one scan on me, and from an unreliable source none the less. Lathum has 3 scans saying wolf, which looks good to me. He then convinces all of you, somehow that I am a wolf, so we all jump on that bandwagon. Can someone please layout why I am a wolf?

Please show me where I have done any convincing today you are a wolf?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.

This statement right here is why I said I was screwed this morning.

Mob mentality

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Just to have it for posterity's sake, Night 1

Clap scanned twice, 1 good, 1 bad
Pass scanned twice, 2 bad
Lathum scanned five times, 3 bad, 2 good
BK scanned 4 times, all 4 good
Chief Rum scanned twice, 2 good
nfg scanned once, 1 bad
DC scanned once, 1 bad
RendeR scanned once, 1 good

People with "true" scans

MikeVic, St. Cronin, jeheinz72: 1


Take all of this with a grain of salt, but I think it's going to be information that's helpful to keep a running tally of

What do you mean by "true" scans?

[st.cronin]

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

Exactly. Allegedly all 3 of us scanned Grey and got a result that he was Good and he ended up Good.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

ok, I get it. Thanks.

[Lathum]

Well, MikeVic scanned Grey and he came up good. He also scanned nfg22 and claims nfg came up wolf. If we want info on how accurate someone is that could be a good place to start.

Since I have to go to class in a little while and may be out until the deadline

UNVOTE DODGERCHICK
VOTE NFG22

I still think DC is guilty but this is somewhat of a self preservation move, all be it early.

[Lathum]

Oh, and I find it an odd coincidence that even though there are votes for Pass and no lynch that DC and nfg22 are alligning to vote for me.

Are they worried I may be onto something?

[st.cronin]

Replace MikeVic with st.cronin and nfg22 with Passacaglia and you have the same exact argument.

[st.cronin]

dola, I'm a lot more suspicious of Pass and Barkeep than any of Lathum, nfg, and Dodgerchick.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think he means confirmed, those three players all claimed to have scanned grey.

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Replace MikeVic with st.cronin and nfg22 with Passacaglia and you have the same exact argument.

I agree, but DC linked herself to nfg22 when she defended him day 1. I think from a pure WW aspect we find out more by lynching one of them.

I am fine if Pass is lynched since there were 2 positive wolf scans on him last night. Plus I know it has no bearing, but he has been a wolf alot lately and these things seem to go in streaks.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola, I'm a lot more suspicious of Pass and Barkeep than any of Lathum, nfg, and Dodgerchick.

You feel pass and I are linked or are suspicous of us separately?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

I am as leery as anybody of using n-0 results, I was just trying to clarify somebody else's argument.

[Lathum]

anyone have a vote count?

[MikeVic]

I scanned clap, not nfg.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

You feel pass and I are linked or are suspicous of us separately?

Not linked. Day 1 Pass was pinging my radar for reasons I can't explain. 2/3 of his scans last night came back wolf.

As for you, I am actually hoping you are a wolf - otherwise I think we lose the teacher's pet tonight. Or, another possibility is that one of the wolves has an ability to distort scans in some way. I guess I'm just a little weirded out by your scan results last night.

[Lathum]

Current vote total as of post #747:

nfg22 5 -- Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628) MikeVic (757) Clap (769)Lathum (830)
No Lynch 3 -- mauboy1(733), The Jackal(736) Sndvls (762)
Lathum 3 -- Dodgerchick(800) nfg22 (787) Barkeep (791)
Chief Rum 1 -- Passacaglia(636)
Dodgerchick 1 -- Jheinze (764)
Passacaglia 2 -- ntndeacon(738) StCronin (770)

No vote: RendeR, Chief Rum, saldana, oliegirl, Mr. Wednesday

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

For some reason, I don't really think Lathum's a wolf, but if that's the direction we're headed in, I guess I'll have to think about changing my vote.

Pumpy, right now the person you scanned as a wolf is in the lead. If you feel I am a better candidate then by all means change your vote, but don't change it just because other people are.

Like I said, I don't think it's a coincidence DC and nfg22 are alligning against me when they could easily have both voted for Pass.

[Lathum]

I also find it interesting that all 3 votes for me came in the span of 13 posts.

[Lathum]

OK, I am off to my last class, not sure what else I can say. Hopefully I will be able to get on before the deadline in case I need to try and save myself.

[st.cronin]

There's still 5 people haven't voted, so this could go a lot of different ways.

[RendeR]

This one is tough, there are 2 front runners and then there is the person that raises my hackles. I dunno who to vote for.

Do i vote lathum in the hopes of keeping the vote close and seeing if someone rushes to his rescue?

Do I vote NFG and basicaly hammer the nail in his coffin?

Do I vote Passacaglia because every time I read his posts my spidey-sense go BOING!??

I hate early votes.

More later.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

Agreed olie, I even added that disclaimer in the next post.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

that would leave a huge trail and why the risk? a positive scan won't really hust you.



It is pretty improbable, but not impossible that all 4 scans are wrong.

But isn't it almost as improbable that all 4 scans are right?

[jeheinz72]

Well I'm off, my vote stays on DC for today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

I changed my mind on that as I fleshed out the ruleset a bit further. It's mentioned somewhere later in the thread, but to clarify:

Neither the Teacher's Pet or Class Clown are aware of their identity. All they know is that they are students.

Thanks for letting us know!