Werewolf CLX - Atlantic City - GAME OVER

[britrock88]

What I meant to say about the seer scan is that I welcome that rather than an NK as a method of finding out my role. If I could get you guys to believe that I'm a villager without the need for verification, though, we could use both the NK AND the seer scan more productively.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Narc, for your records, I bought the dating service, though Jackal beat me to the punch in announcing that.

Ah I missed that. I was worried it made you a lover but I doubt Jackal would have outed it in that case. I suspect a seer scan might show you as a wolf whatever you allegiance - I guess we could hope that the bent cop was used on DT by the Vegas mob.

I'd rather kill Brit than scan him for this reason but I think there's better candidates out there.

[The Jackal]

Ive made my opinion on murrayy quite clear, and am fine with him as a NK target

[Narcizo]

Meh! I would have bid properly and got the wolf-killer dude if I knew there was going to be this much time to give orders.

[Autumn]

Nine minutes left to bet.

[Autumn]

Monday morning in Atlantic City. A lot of crushed hopes and cold reality. Empty bank accounts and sore heads.

You all wake and head into your daily routine. you grab the paper of course. No deaths or beatings in the city last night. Maybe you're doing something right. you can't help but think there's still trouble in this city though.

[Autumn]

Day Five has begun. Services will be listed shortly.

[JAG]

Alrighty then.

[The Jackal]

Huh. Did the wolves win the BG?

[Autumn]

Here's what the city has to offer you today. Bids are due by 9 pm EST.

DAY FIVE SERVICES FOR HIRE

Mick "Stones" McGee - Hired muscle for the guy who wants some protection
Donna Black Investigations - When you need somebody checked out
Cookie's Ladies - Send somebody a "friend" to entertain them through the night
Sandy Back Messenger Service - When you need to send a message fast
Casino2Casino Wire Transfer - When you want to send a buck to a friend
Freddie von Maur, Casino Manager - having a friend in the House pays off

BLACK MARKET SERVICES - HIRE AT YOUR OWN RISK
The Money Hole - money lending for the desperate gambler
Joe "Creaky" Reitzler, hitman - they say that Creaky will make a guy disappear for you
"Stumpy" Jones, thug - this guy delivers a lesson with his fists, one it takes a while to recover from
Mikhail Vavilov, arms dealer - he'll sell you something for a last resort

[Autumn]

Let me know if I've forgotten anything.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Huh. Did the wolves win the BG?

Coffee only had the normal scaredy-pants-of-wolves hitman. So if he put in his order that means murra5y is a baddy.

vote murra5y

That's another day's wash then.

[Narcizo]

I guess I'm jumping the gun and should really wait to hear for Coffee. But like I was saying I'd be surprised if murra5y isn't a wolf.

[The Jackal]

Ah, that makes sense.

vote murrayyyyy

[Narcizo]

Of course there's nothing to say that the wolves didn't buy the bodyguard and protect murra5y. That would be, interesting. Wonder what Coffee would be told if that was the case.

[The Jackal]

I'm also curious to know if there was anymore story backlash if indeed a villager tried to use the NK on a wolf for the second time.

[Narcizo]

Given the business with Coffee doing the mob a "favour" by hiring the hitman do we guess that the village is best off not hiring the black market chaps?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Given the business with Coffee doing the mob a "favour" by hiring the hitman do we guess that the village is best off not hiring the black market chaps?

I wouldn't say that. For one, we don't know how significant a favor is vs. taking the night kill from them. Two, it encourages them to put in crappy $2 bids and doesn't force them to use resources.

Just waiting to hear from Coffee before putting a vote down on murra5y.

[path12]

I had the seer last night. Danny is mafia.

[path12]

Dola,

VOTE DANNY

[The Jackal]

Sweet, way to confirm.

[JAG]

Excellent. My analysis was worth a damn.

So assuming murra5y is also bad, which do we lynch first?

[The Jackal]

Yeah, let's wait to hear from CW, but I'm not sure. We aren't at the point where we'd try to avoid a brutal (still think brutal or conversion is a possibility if the village wins too many black market purchases).

[mauchow]

vote danny

Happy to change if need be.

[JAG]

A conversion in a game with six starting wolves would be pretty outrageous. I really hope it's not that.

[JAG]

If Danny and murra5y are on opposite teams and we have three wolves to a side, that fully clears the people who have been scanned, unless you believe a mobster on one team would clear a mobster on the other team (which I don't).

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

A conversion in a game with six starting wolves would be pretty outrageous. I really hope it's not that.

That's true.

[JAG]

Vote Danny

Guess I'll go with Danny. I feel pretty decently he's a font teammate but I'm less sure about that than that murra5y is a DT teammate. It's also possible murra5y didn't show up this weekend to get his bet in as I didn't see him post anything whereas Danny was around.

[The Jackal]

unvote murrayyyyy

vote danny

[Coffee Warlord]

Murray is a baddy. Hitman tried and failed.

Vote murrray

And I have a project at work to finish in 2 days, and it's brutal. So don't expect a ton from me.

[Chief Rum]

Vote murrayyyyy

Why murrayyyyy over Danny? Because I have a bet on murrayyyyy, lol.

Actually, let's face it, I'll bet a lot of us have bets on murrayyyyy. Shouldn't we lynch him today, get the bet benefit, and then all of us tomorrow get the bet benefit for Danny?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Vote murrayyyyy

Why murrayyyyy over Danny? Because I have a bet on murrayyyyy, lol.

Actually, let's face it, I'll bet a lot of us have bets on murrayyyyy. Shouldn't we lynch him today, get the bet benefit, and then all of us tomorrow get the bet benefit for Danny?

For sure murra5y's teammate has a bet on him too since Coffee announced he would NK him, so we guarantee putting money in one mobster's pocket. There's also the possibility the other team knew it as well since we have a couple unaccounted for NK's with no kills and an unaccounted for murra5y beating, presumably done by the mobster team opposite murra5y. path didn't announce who he would scan (or that he bought the seer, though I think people probably figured it out), so there's less guarantee the mobsters will profit from Danny's death. Combine that with my above points and I think I'd rather off Danny today and murra5y tomorrow.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ah. Danny's mob too. Heh.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

For sure murra5y's teammate has a bet on him too since Coffee announced he would NK him, so we guarantee putting money in one mobster's pocket. There's also the possibility the other team knew it as well since we have a couple unaccounted for NK's with no kills and an unaccounted for murra5y beating, presumably done by the mobster team opposite murra5y. path didn't announce who he would scan (or that he bought the seer, though I think people probably figured it out), so there's less guarantee the mobsters will profit from Danny's death. Combine that with my above points and I think I'd rather off Danny today and murra5y tomorrow.

Hmm... I'm sure you're right, actually. People would have left murrayyyyy out of their lynch bets because of what CW said. Unless they were dumb like me and put in their bets early on in the weekend and didn't think to change them after CW said what he was going to do.

I'll leave my vote on murrayyyyy for now since it personally benefits me, but obviously, this is a minor quibble if we get two mobsters out of it.

[path12]

Originally Posted by JAG

path didn't announce who he would scan (or that he bought the seer, though I think people probably figured it out), so there's less guarantee the mobsters will profit from Danny's death.

I wish path would have been smart enough to actually bet Danny even though he suspected him enough to scan. I have money on murrayyyyy instead.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I wish path would have been smart enough to actually bet Danny even though he suspected him enough to scan. I have money on murrayyyyy instead.

Well, at least I wasn't the only one.

[Coffee Warlord]

While I'm waiting on a person to get back to me...

FWIW, I've got money on murray as well. Bet on him and brit when I had originally decided not to use the kill order, and forgot about switching.

So, I'm biased as to the kill.

[Chief Rum]

I'm beginning to wonder if we all put money on murrayyyyy, no matter what was happening over the weekend.

[JAG]

If DV and Jackal bet murra5y as well, I'd be ok with switching even though I think if puts more in the mob's pockets.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

If DV and Jackal bet murra5y as well, I'd be ok with switching even though I think if puts more in the mob's pockets.

I'm on the fence there. I have a feeling that the money isn't likely to be an issue for the mob at this point, right? Don't they have other ways of getting cash?

But, yes, it's an obvious opportunity for them to get cash. Does it help us more if we get more cash out of it than they do? Maybe. Depends on how we use it.

I argued against putting money in the mob's hands at the start, but there were alot more mobsters then. Two are dead, and the third (whoever it will be) will be lynched before he can take advantage of it. So only three mafia could potentially benefit, and that's assuming they put bets on murrayyyyy.

I think I am talking myself into keeping my (self-serving) bet on murrayyyyy.

[JAG]

To play devil's advocate, if the mob is doing great with money, why are we winning so many services? You could argue we're getting really lucky or we've had some mobsters helping out in order to blend in I suppose, but I don't know.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

To play devil's advocate, if the mob is doing great with money, why are we winning so many services? You could argue we're getting really lucky or we've had some mobsters helping out in order to blend in I suppose, but I don't know.

Not sure, but I'll bet the one service bid allowed has a lot to do with it. They can't spread their cash around like in the Vegas game. If they go massively in on one bet (more money than anyone can expect to have), it would be kinda obvious right? Both to the village and the other mafia team.

My guess is that the mafia teams are playing conservatively on purpose to hide a bit (like you said, blending).

[mauchow]

What if murray is a villager who bought the bg and self protected?

Am I missing something that would make that unplausible?

Even if it means missing out on money I'd rather go with danny first for the sake of an absolute lynched mafia.

That's my two cents.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mauchow

What if murray is a villager who bought the bg and self protected?

Am I missing something that would make that unplausible?

Even if it means missing out on money I'd rather go with danny first for the sake of an absolute lynched mafia.

That's my two cents.

I think CW puts that to rest. He clearly got a message that murrayyyyy is a mobster (his hired hitman refused to kill murrayyyyy because he is mafia).

[Chief Rum]

Devil's advocate/Food For Thought:

Wasn't the crooked cop bought two days ago? It's entirely possible someone bought the crooked cop and then framed murrayyyyy, making murrayyyyy appear to be mafia when he isn't, hoping he would be scanned.

That might work on a seer, but I am not sure I would work on the hitman, too. Or how long that "evidence" would last (does it wear off in a day, and then murrayyyyy is a regular villager again?).

Like I said, just playing devil's advocate. That would take a good bit of planning and tremendously luck to pull that off. And for what benefit? If we lynch a villager murrayyyyy, do we then go after CW?

I say we face that when it comes to it. Occam's Razor. I'm sure murrayyyyy is who CW says he is.

[Chief Rum]

Should be not sure it would work on the hitman. My post doesn't make sense as written.

[britrock88]

Vote Danny

If the mafia knew they'd block murra5y's NK, they surely put bets on him so that they could profit from it. Voting Danny because the mafia probably didn't maneuver in a way that would allow it to profit from his demise.

[britrock88]

My only question is how much we trust a scan coming from path.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Devil's advocate/Food For Thought:

Wasn't the crooked cop bought two days ago? It's entirely possible someone bought the crooked cop and then framed murrayyyyy, making murrayyyyy appear to be mafia when he isn't, hoping he would be scanned.

That might work on a seer, but I am not sure I would work on the hitman, too. Or how long that "evidence" would last (does it wear off in a day, and then murrayyyyy is a regular villager again?).

Like I said, just playing devil's advocate. That would take a good bit of planning and tremendously luck to pull that off. And for what benefit? If we lynch a villager murrayyyyy, do we then go after CW?

I say we face that when it comes to it. Occam's Razor. I'm sure murrayyyyy is who CW says he is.

I am pretty sure in the Vegas game the crooked cop was a one day deal. It would be a bit over-powered if that wasn't the case, so I agree that's not too likely.

Originally Posted by britrock88

My only question is how much we trust a scan coming from path.

I feel pretty good about him not being on DT's side since he voted for him D3 vs. you and he also voted murra5y who is likely to be bad as well. Plus, I had serious mistrust for Danny before the scan so it's not a shocking result.

[Autumn]

Day 5 Voting

3 murra5y -------- narcizo (812), coffee warlord (830), chief rum (831)
5 Danny ---------- path12 (811), mauchow (824), JAG (828), the jackal (829), britrock88 (847)