Werewolf XLVIII - The horror of sorcery hill (Game over)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't get how you can trust Swaggs, but not me or path.

path is one of the others, I still have this nagging sensation that you're playing a very devious game of data mining and night kill setups...its so open as to seem transparent, and thats what bothers me...

[Barkeep49]

Pass I don't know what I think of you, but I will say that if you are a wolf, then you've played an excellent game and I will likely say the same if you turn out to be a villager. So all in all good job!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

path is one of the others, I still have this nagging sensation that you're playing a very devious game of data mining and night kill setups...its so open as to seem transparent, and thats what bothers me...

I know that for a long time I put far more effort into my games as a wolf than as a villager. I don't think that's true anymore but this is an astute observation.

Still, I think we can do better than looking at Pass today, quite honestly. Actually, statistically speaking, we should have a high probability of finding a wolf (1 in 3).

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- And I'll add that if we don't get today right the game is virtually over as tomorrow it would be 4-3 and the villagers would have to be completely united to lynch a wolf.

[RendeR]

I agree that Pass proabably isn't my main thought today, but he's definitely not in my CoT asyet, its just a nagging feeling that he's playing us all like lutes on a sunday afternoon.

[Barkeep49]

I never realized lutes were played more easily on Sunday afternoons. Render can you play a lute for us? I would like that. You can wait until tomorrow if it's better for you.

[RendeR]

*strums a few bars of "parsley sage rosemary and thyme" and sings along softly*

[RendeR]

And I still have tails, 1 newt 1 lizard, if someone has a recipe that needs them.

[Barkeep49]

Thanks.

[Barkeep49]

I still have something in the plant area if someone needs it for their recipe.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why LSG?

Because she's upper half of my list and she had mold already.

[hoopsguy]

I'm planning on passing all three of my items
- unnamed potion
- mercury
- cactus bulb

to three different players over the course of today, unless someone indicates that they need one of these specifically.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Pass I don't know what I think of you, but I will say that if you are a wolf, then you've played an excellent game and I will likely say the same if you turn out to be a villager. So all in all good job!

I agree. I don't feel I'm playing a very good game because I'm really not reading things very clearly at all, but in this game I think you've got to just take a shot and trust some folks. Pass is one of them. If he's bad, then we've just discovered a helluva wolf. I'm willing to be wrong there.

[path12]

I have a recipe that calls for newt tail and vine that I'm willing to try. I'm just missing the ingredients.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, or others who may have knowledge of this, what happened with the potions from yesterday? Did you end up using them and gaining any kind of information from their application? Did you study them further and find out how they can be used?

If you passed them, I don't necessarily need to know where they ended up, but I'm hoping that we generate some kind of value from these items - today, if at all possible.

[Barkeep49]

Path what's the recipe?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Pass I don't know what I think of you, but I will say that if you are a wolf, then you've played an excellent game and I will likely say the same if you turn out to be a villager. So all in all good job!

Thanks. Of course, that's not what you said about me Day 1! Glad to hear I've picked it up since then.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

LSG -- Do you mean you have a remove poison spell?

yes, sorry, a remove poison spell

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Path what's the recipe?

The recipe calls just newt tail and vine.

[LoneStarGirl]

I still think our wolves are likely pass and hoops, and probably ardent or path

I still am very inclined to vote Hoopsguy

[Barkeep49]

path: I was asking what the recipe makes, I got that it only has two components to it.

[Passacaglia]

eternal bond potion

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

eternal bond potion

Ahh. Did we ever decide if this potion was a good idea or not?

[hoopsguy]

Have you learned what it does yet?

If it has a chance of linking two players a la "lovers" then pick two that you think are wolves and let's see what happens with a lynch of one of the two.

Best case - game totally swings with two wolves tied together, we have a 6-1 lead heading into night
Middle case - get one out of two, moves to 5-2 heading into night phase
Worst case - game ends today, 4-3 heading into night and no apparent method to stop them

All assumptions are based on 3 wolves, obviously.

[Chief Rum]

I was in the kitchen last night, and found nothing. Apparently it's just full of junk, and I couldn't possibly start making heads or tails of it. Of course, it said I might do better if I return. Not sure about that.

Anyway, Barkeep is right. We're up against it here. We don't have a wolf lynched or killed. We never had seers or bodyguards, at least not by role. So potions and spells are the only way we can do things that might reveal a wolf. So it's time to use what we got.

If you have a potion, drink it. Or if you think it's bad, throw it at someone. We need to see what happens, because the time to be cautious is gone.

I still have mushrooms and the recipe for Holy Water.

[Poli]

We've got to do something, that's for friggin sure.

[RendeR]

This is going make make me look bad, but:

Where are the potions from yesterday? Pass said something about still having one, but what happened to the other? Which ones were they and can the wolves use them against us?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Have you learned what it does yet?

If it has a chance of linking two players a la "lovers" then pick two that you think are wolves and let's see what happens with a lynch of one of the two.

Best case - game totally swings with two wolves tied together, we have a 6-1 lead heading into night
Middle case - get one out of two, moves to 5-2 heading into night phase
Worst case - game ends today, 4-3 heading into night and no apparent method to stop them

All assumptions are based on 3 wolves, obviously.

I'm OK with this kind of risk at this point, frankly, though if path is a wolf we're handing them the victory.

[ntndeacon]

I was in the library and recieved the recipe for another potion...
I think it might have already been discovered. uses peppers and mold

[ntndeacon]

also would not mind mushrooms and maybe a certain plant (that has been unmentioned as of yet.)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm OK with this kind of risk at this point, frankly, though if path is a wolf we're handing them the victory.

If that is the approach we are taking we could demand that he pass it to a player deemed more acceptable. Just not sure what kind of consensus we are likely to generate.

[Poli]

Frankly, the only person I really trust at this point is myself, but we've got to make a move or we're done for.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If that is the approach we are taking we could demand that he pass it to a player deemed more acceptable. Just not sure what kind of consensus we are likely to generate.

Actually I think we could gather consensus around Pass. If Pass was the one doing the bonding I would feel the best about it frankly, though it's of course possible that he's a wolf.

[Poli]

My only concern with either path or pass is I'm starting to wonder if they're both wolves, with someone like render or lsg mixed in.

[Poli]

I wish I had taken a chance and just mixed the mercury and flower and throw it at someone, anyone. I've felt worthless the whole stinking game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

My only concern with either path or pass is I'm starting to wonder if they're both wolves, with someone like render or lsg mixed in.

I think we can make a good case that any two people are wolves. But I trust Pass the most of anyone. If you're opposed to the plan because you can't trust anyone, I understand, but I'm ready for a little risk taking when we're so close to the precipice.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Pass I don't know what I think of you, but I will say that if you are a wolf, then you've played an excellent game and I will likely say the same if you turn out to be a villager. So all in all good job!

I wouldn't call it an excellent game. I've just managed to put myself in the driver's seat this game through getting recipes and items, but in doing so, I think I might have hampered the village's ability to actually bag some wolves.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think we can make a good case that any two people are wolves. But I trust Pass the most of anyone. If you're opposed to the plan because you can't trust anyone, I understand, but I'm ready for a little risk taking when we're so close to the precipice.

Let's do it then.

I'm out for an hour or two to mow the grass, yippee! Yeah, I'm actually excited to do it.

[hoopsguy]

I want to know what happened with the potions yesterday before moving ahead with this plan. Especially considering that:
1.) I proposed it with
2.) Full knowledge that I was likely to be one of the two picked and
3.) I'm not a wolf, so the other pick had better be right

[Passacaglia]

I can tell you about the holy water potion. I didn't know what to do with it yesterday -- do I pass it? If so, to whom? I trusted Swaggs and path, and ntn a little, but the wolves were equally likely to go after them. In the end, I decided to keep it, thinking the wolves would think I would pass it. Then a little while ago, I threw it at someone.

As for the other potion, last I knew, Swaggs had passed it to path. I think he still has it and knows how to use it (whatever that means). I'm not pressing him any more on that -- I feel comfortable leaving it up to him.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I was in the library and recieved the recipe for another potion...
I think it might have already been discovered. uses peppers and mold

Yes, I know that one.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Actually I think we could gather consensus around Pass. If Pass was the one doing the bonding I would feel the best about it frankly, though it's of course possible that he's a wolf.

I'm fine with letting Pass do it, though I think the whole plan sounds wolfish to me. They know we have no clue, or worse yet are thinking in wrong directions so why not try and end it right now by encouraging us to pick two wolves?

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Passacaglia]

Sorry for being dense here -- what are y'all having me do?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

As for the other potion, last I knew, Swaggs had passed it to path. I think he still has it and knows how to use it (whatever that means). I'm not pressing him any more on that -- I feel comfortable leaving it up to him.

I don't have any potions at all. I've got two recipes and an ingredient.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry for being dense here -- what are y'all having me do?

Make the bond potion and pick two wolves with it. Best case we're 6-1, worst we lose the game. We don't even know if the damn thing would be harmful to them or not though. It sounds fishy to me.

[Passacaglia]

Did you used to have a potion, path? I thought Swaggs had implied that he passed you one.

[Passacaglia]

I can try to pick two wolves, although that part of the game (you know, the important one where we actually get wolves) has really gotten away from me.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

I'm fine with letting Pass do it, though I think the whole plan sounds wolfish to me. They know we have no clue, or worse yet are thinking in wrong directions so why not try and end it right now by encouraging us to pick two wolves?

VOTE HOOPSGUY

Why would the wolves be in a rush to end it? They are in complete control.

They have three votes today (again, assuming 3) out of 9. We are going to need to be pretty consistent with our vote choice if we want to avoid a bad lynch.

Assuming that the potion works like this (again, speculation) and we have a villager pulling the trigger, our chances of getting at least one wolf in the mix are pretty good.

Eight player, three wolves (villager with potion would not include themself).
Chances of whiffing = 5/8 * 4/7 = 20/56 = 35.7%
Chances of whiffing, if I'm one of the two picked = 4/7 = 57.1%

Either way, I think it is better than our chances of hitting a vote, going against a potential three man team, if there isn't new info coming out.

I'm not going to be at all surprised to get votes today, but it is bad for the village. As long as I'm around, I'm going to try and win the game for the villagers.

[LoneStarGirl]

If anybody has peppers I would like to take it

NTN has a recipe for peppers and mold and if he isn't going to do anything with it, I would like it. I hate people just sitting around and waiting and think we need action. I agree with Chief that we need to do more with what we got

[RendeR]

Lets all remeber also that today doesn't END until tomorrow night at 10, not tonight at 10. Check the schedule in post #2!