2024 NFL Offseason, Free Agency, and Draft Talk

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Seems like a move you make with a QB who has 1-2 years left and you're drafting their replacement. But Cousins just signed a 4 year deal with tons in guaranteed money. The team is in win now mode. Just seems like a really bad use of resources.

But it's really structured as a two year deal, with all the guaranteed money up front. And like I said, Cousins is a 36 year-old (by start of season) quarterback coming off Achilles surgery. He's slated to be the third oldest starting QB this season. I don't think you plan on him being your starter come 2026. And they don't plan on drafting this high again in the next two years. So I don't hate the process.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

But it's really structured as a two year deal, with all the guaranteed money up front. And like I said, Cousins is a 36 year-old (by start of season) quarterback coming off Achilles surgery. He's slated to be the third oldest starting QB this season. I don't think you plan on him being your starter come 2026. And they don't plan on drafting this high again in the next two years. So I don't hate the process.

The problem is you pay a dude 100 mil guaranteed you are in win now mode. Instead of drafting a piece that can help him win now you take his replacement. It makes zero sense.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The problem is you pay a dude 100 mil guaranteed you are in win now mode. Instead of drafting a piece that can help him win now you take his replacement. It makes zero sense.

I’d agree with most of this but the REAL problem is that there was a legit top tier WR prospect sitting there and the Falcons passed on that and instead will trot out an island of misfit toys at WR2 and WR3 this season. If Odunze isn’t available I have less issues with the move.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If I am Cousins and see Odunze on the board and instead my team takes my replacement I would be hella pissed.

Originally Posted by dubb93

I’d agree with most of this but the REAL problem is that there was a legit top tier WR prospect sitting there and the Falcons passed on that and instead will trot out an island of misfit toys at WR2 and WR3 this season. If Odunze isn’t available I have less issues with the move.

Said this yesterday...

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I just don't understand the trade picks and win now mentality combined with the get a future QB mentality. They could have kept their pick and gotten Byron Murphy if they were set on a DT.

If they were going to pick a DL in the first round, it would have been Latu or Turner. They weren't set on DT, they were set on Penix. It is clear the only thing that might have moved them off Penix is if maybe another of the top three QB's were avaible. In the second round, they obviously had Orhorhoro as best avaible, mostly because he looks like a Grady Jarrett style line up anywhere on the line guy.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Said this yesterday...

And I said yesterday, Odunze probably wasn't high on their list because he was too much like what they already have from the old regime, and they need more speedsters.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

But it's really structured as a two year deal, with all the guaranteed money up front. And like I said, Cousins is a 36 year-old (by start of season) quarterback coming off Achilles surgery. He's slated to be the third oldest starting QB this season. I don't think you plan on him being your starter come 2026. And they don't plan on drafting this high again in the next two years. So I don't hate the process.

I agree it is a two year deal, but if they were trying to go the "Love" route, they could have used a lower first round pick next year after a good playoff run this year for a QB to sit until Cousins is ready to leave/retire. They instead are claiming to be "all in" to win while burning a high-value pick on player you are hoping to not see the field in the next two to three years. A player that is a guy who should be starting now, not a 21 year old that could benefit from some growth like Love was.

In was a bad move no matter how you color it, unless they somehow win the Super Bowl in the next two years. That wasn't that likely to begin with, but this made it even less likely.

[Atocep]

Tarcone instantly becomes a Bears fan.

[QuikSand]

Dolphins trade up to select... a very fast running back. LOL

[weegeebored]

This draft may work out for the Bears, but I am still not a fan of Poles. A project OT in the 3rd and a punter in the 4th? Yeah, Gill sucks but I don't understand the pick. There will be UDFA punters available.

[Atocep]

I like the tackle pick. They don't really need a starter next year so getting a high ceiling guy that can sit makes sense. There's honestly not a lot in this draft after the 2nd/3rd. This is a very shallow draft.

The punter pick is meh. It's the range some were projecting him to go in and, as you said, Gill sucks. I guess in a shallow draft you're at least getting someone that will contribute this season.

[weegeebored]

I find it difficult to believe that there isn't a value player drafted after the Bears took the punter. It's not as if other teams are throwing up their hands in disgust at the lack of later round talent and just randomly choosing a guy. I would even argue that a punter has less value for the Bears now as the offense should be much better and will need to rely less on their punter. It seems that for every good move that Poles makes he has a corresponding head scratcher.

[weegeebored]

The Bears trade back into the draft to nab Kansas edge rusher Austin Booker. Gave up a 2025 fourth. I feel much better now.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

As they made the trade with the Cardinals (i think), I fully support this trade.

hahaha nice

[CrimsonFox]

wait so they're just picking now? willy nilly? free?

everytime I think I'm caught up, I then don't understand what's going on

[CrimsonFox]

so what all this end of round compensatory garbage and special picks?

[CrimsonFox]

SPENCER RATTLER IS A SAINT!

[Ksyrup]

It's been deleted, but the Raiders actually posted a "speed kills" tweet for some dude they drafted.

[molson]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

wait so they're just picking now? willy nilly? free?

everytime I think I'm caught up, I then don't understand what's going on

Pay attention, someone might pick you or I and then we have to start packing up the station wagon.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Dolphins trade up to select... a very fast running back. LOL

I don’t follow college football so pretty much all of these names are new to me, but based on numbers, Dolphins seem to have beaten the curve in the draft?

They have picked 5 of the top 100 prospects on NFL.com in the first 184 picks.

Whether they are the right positions is another argument, but they seem to have drafted well on the face of it?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

Pay attention, someone might pick you or I and then we have to start packing up the station wagon.

"You're an Atlanta Falcon"

Given the way they've drafted, that feels like a real possibility lol

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

"You're an Atlanta Falcon"

Given the way they've drafted, that feels like a real possibility lol

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by AlexB

I don’t follow college football so pretty much all of these names are new to me, but based on numbers, Dolphins seem to have beaten the curve in the draft?

They have picked 5 of the top 100 prospects on NFL.com in the first 184 picks.

Whether they are the right positions is another argument, but they seem to have drafted well on the face of it?

they just got a steal in round 6 with Malik Washington. How he slid so far I have no idea

[CrimsonFox]

geez....Tom Brady was a late 6th round pick....just wow

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

Everyone: Playing first year quarterbacks is a disservice to the player and teams should give them time to develop on the bench for a year to two without rushing them into games.

Also everyone: What is Atlanta doing drafting a quarterback who they plan on sitting for a few years?

Count me among those who don't hate the process. There were people that were critical of the Chiefs in 2017 when they gave up assets to move up and take their quarterback of the future when they already had a Pro Bowl quarterback on their roster. People were saying they should have improved the defense instead. How did that work out?

Unfortunately, there is really only one way to build a winning team in today's NFL and that's hitting on a superstar quarterback. Every QB that a team drafts is basically like a lottery ticket and you need to hit on one of these tickets if you want to be competitive year after year with a shot at winning Super Bowls. While the addition of Cousins means the Falcons should be a playoff team over the next few years, I don't think anyone sees him as a superstar quarterback.

So if a team really believes they have found their future superstar quarterback, then I don't think there is anything wrong with taking him in that spot, even if you already just signed another guy (who happens to be 36 years old coming off a torn Achilles) for the next few years. Whether Penix is that guy is another question altogether.

I don't agree with most of the ideological absolutes in your post. However, if those absolutes are indeed true then I don't see anything wrong with the process either.

[molson]

Originally Posted by AlexB

I don’t follow college football so pretty much all of these names are new to me, but based on numbers, Dolphins seem to have beaten the curve in the draft?

They have picked 5 of the top 100 prospects on NFL.com in the first 184 picks.

Whether they are the right positions is another argument, but they seem to have drafted well on the face of it?

The big NFL draft secret is, nobody has actually heard of any of these people (at least after the first round), they just compare what actually happens to ESPN mock drafts and NFL.com rankings. So basically a 10-year old could run a team's draft and score an A+ media evaluation ranking just by strictly following those.

I don't believe for a second that anyone has any clue which Big 10 offensive lineman will be better in the NFL. If it's your full time job for a few months on a team, maybe you can improve your odds some.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

In was a bad move no matter how you color it, unless they somehow win the Super Bowl in the next two years. That wasn't that likely to begin with, but this made it even less likely.

The Chiefs were coming off the third best record in the NFL and could have grabbed Marshawn Lattimore when they were in desperate need of a cornerback. Instead, they chose a developmental QB. Was picking Mahomes there a bad move? They didn't win the Super Bowl in either of the next two seasons and picking Mahomes over someone that could have helped right away certainly negatively impacted their immediate chances.

Let's be honest, the Falcons weren't going to be winning the Super Bowl the next two seasons even if they picked another player there. If Kirk Cousins were to win the Super Bowl, he would be the oldest starting QB to do it in the past 50 years not named Brady, Manning (who was awful that year) or Elway.

So if they are absolutely in love with a player and think they've found their franchise quarterback for the next 10 years, do they:

a. Despite having just signed a 36-year-old starting QB coming off Achilles surgery to a big money deal for the next two years, still pick who they believe is their future franchise QB and let him sit and learn for a year or two; or

b. Pass on the guy and then just pray that they find a guy who they fall equally in love with next year (a class that is supposed to be thin on elite QB talent), while (ideally for them) drafting in the mid-20's?

Also, what suggests the Falcons are "all in"? Just because they signed the highest profile FA QB for the next 2 years? Was this a Super Bowl team last year if only they had a better quarterback? Did they make any other signings indicating they are "all in"?

Basically, there should be two types of teams in the NFL. Those with their long-term franchise QB and those looking to find their long term franchise QB. If you are the latter and think you've found him, then you absolutely have to pick him.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

Also, what suggests the Falcons are "all in"?

The owner, for one.

from one of the TV sports guys (who had talked to the 81 year old owner)

Falcons owner Arthur Blank wanted a succession plan to Kirk Cousins - They are win now mode and don't plan on drafting in the top-20 anytime soon

This is consistent with Blank's previous public comments.

It's also what makes the pick even more glaringly idiotic.

They either wasted a draft pick or they wasted $100m+ on Cousins.

Either way, there's nothing about the move that's a) rationally defensible or b) an indication that anyone in Atlanta has the slightest fucking clue what the hell they're doing

[CrimsonFox]

so how about that Canadian, eh?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

The Chiefs were coming off the third best record in the NFL and could have grabbed Marshawn Lattimore when they were in desperate need of a cornerback. Instead, they chose a developmental QB. Was picking Mahomes there a bad move? They didn't win the Super Bowl in either of the next two seasons and picking Mahomes over someone that could have helped right away certainly negatively impacted their immediate chances.

You answered your own question. It is the same as comparing what the Falcons did to what the Packers did. When you are already a top team, spending draft capital on the future makes sense. When you are a bad club trying to turn the corner, spending a top ten draft pick on someone you don't want to play for 2-4 years is idiotic.

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

Let's be honest, the Falcons weren't going to be winning the Super Bowl the next two seasons even if they picked another player there. If Kirk Cousins were to win the Super Bowl, he would be the oldest starting QB to do it in the past 50 years not named Brady, Manning (who was awful that year) or Elway.

So? Does that mnean it is impossible? Can't be because you just listed three guys who have done it. Something doesn't happen until it does. They didn't sign Cousins to a huge contract to lose.

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

So if they are absolutely in love with a player and think they've found their franchise quarterback for the next 10 years, do they:

But it is not for the "next ten years" because he will not play (hopefully) next year, or the next year, and if Cousins continues to do well the next.....
And then he might, maybe, be a decent quarterback. Or he might, maybe, be a complete bust. The chances of him being a bust are much higher than any other position the Falcons could have taken in that spot. And any other position they could have taken there would contribute to make this team better right now, not hopefully maybe someday. When you have been 7-10 for two years in a row and even worse before that you have to keep improving the team for now. Not maybe hopefully have something in the future.



The Chiefs were a good team that knew Smith wasn't planning on playing much longer. The Packers where a good team that drafted their succession plan on an older quarterback that ended up causing them all sorts of problems afterward. The Falcons are still trying to get to that good team. That's why they spent a huge chunk of money on Cousins to get them over the top. But then instead of helping him, they gave him a big middle finger and drafted his replacement before he took a snap. Stupid, moronic, idiotic move.

[CrimsonFox]

we'll see fontenot on the street soon.

[Edward64]

2 new Hogs in the NFL. Slim pickings.

Kicker to the Jags
OL to the Rams

[SirFozzie]

ESPN actually did a really good job breaking down why this is such a head scratcher

The Falcons made a massive mistake in the first round and have created a mess

The no-question most shocking selection of the first round was the Falcons' pick of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall. And it's not because eighth was a lot sooner than most projections had Penix going.

The reason this pick shocked the NFL was because, just six weeks earlier, the Falcons signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract that includes $100 million in guaranteed money. Dropping the proven Cousins into an offense equipped with young stars at wide receiver, tight end and running back felt like the move of a team intending to contend right away, which would lead a reasonable person to believe that team would use the eighth pick on a player (maybe an edge rusher?) who could help the 2024 roster.

Cousins' agent, Mike McCartney, made it clear Thursday night that Cousins was shocked and disappointed by the selection and didn't see it coming. Cousins is the kind of guy who likely will make the best of it, but it still feels like a sudden departure from what the Falcons' plan was six weeks ago. And I think it's fair for Cousins -- and frankly everyone else -- to feel like this could end up being a difficult situation for the Falcons' roster and coaching staff.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Let me be clear right away: The criticism has nothing to do with my, your or the Falcons' evaluation of Penix as a player and prospect. That is irrelevant to this discussion. Penix could turn out to be a star, and frankly, I hope he does. This is about the draft and the Falcons' apparent misunderstanding of its true under-discussed purpose.

In spite of all the time that teams, fans and media spend on scouting the draft, in the end, it is not about scouting. It's about value and resource allocation. In a salary cap league, teams that want to sign and keep their star players as they get more expensive absolutely must get significant contributions from drafted players while they're on their rookie contracts. This is the main reason the Chiefs have continued to win Super Bowls while dishing out huge contracts to Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The Falcons have created a situation in which they cannot possibly get maximum value out of both Cousins' contract and Penix's rookie contract, though.

First off, their combined cash spent on Cousins and Penix in 2024 alone should come out to around $76.8 million when you factor in their respective signing bonuses and salaries. From there, the possible outcomes include the following:

Cousins plays well enough and wins enough to justify the contract the Falcons gave him in free agency. He starts every game in 2024 and 2025. By the end of the 2025 season, Atlanta has paid Cousins $90 million and Penix around $15 million. With only a $10 million 2026 roster bonus left on the guarantees, the Falcons could then release or trade the 37-year-old Cousins and incur a $25 million dead-money charge on their 2026 cap. Penix will be 26 without an NFL start, and the Falcons will get one season to evaluate him as a starter before deciding on his fifth-year option.

Cousins plays the entire 2024 season, but for whatever reason, the Falcons decide next spring that Penix is ready to start in 2025. They could keep Cousins as Penix's backup, but $27.5 million is a lot of money for a backup. Cutting Cousins at this point would result in a $65 million dead-money cap charge. Trading him would cause a $37.5 million dead-money hit. And Atlanta would have paid him $62.5 million for one season.

Cousins gets injured or struggles to come back from his Achilles injury and Penix is thrown into the starter's role after an offseason in which he didn't get starter's reps. This might not be a bad outcome, football-wise, if Penix is pro-ready as his résumé indicates. But if he were to succeed in this situation, it would put the Falcons in a very challenging spot in terms of what to do with Cousins and his contract.

Cousins struggles, leading the fan base (and perhaps the locker room) to want to see the high draft pick play. Whatever the coaching staff decides in this scenario is tough on both of these players (and perhaps, again, the locker room).

Penix could turn out to be great, but that's not the point. The Falcons mismanaged their resources. There's no way for them to get maximum value from both Cousins' deal and Penix's rookie deal. As a result, their roster won't be as good in the coming years as it could have been -- no matter how well or how much either one of them plays.

[GrantDawg]

Penix could turn out to be great, but that's not the point. The Falcons mismanaged their resources. There's no way for them to get maximum value from both Cousins' deal and Penix's rookie deal. As a result, their roster won't be as good in the coming years as it could have been -- no matter how well or how much either one of them plays.

This is it exactly. The Cousin signing is fine, or the Penix pick is fine. Both is nonsense.

[CrimsonFox]

Bottom Line: You just shelled out big bucks for a QB....now get him an offensive weapon he can use, a lineman to protect him, or a Defensive monster to get him the ball

THEN COusins has a better chance to be worth all that money you just gave him

[Edward64]

Who would have thought the Falcons would be the big talking point from the draft.

FWIW let’s come back in 2-3 years and see how Penix works out.

[CrimsonFox]

I'm already past reading about that...I'm on to things like
What happens to the rookies drafted now? What happens to those not drafted? Is it a freeforall? Will these draftees get cut? What happened to all the draftees from the last 5 years? Are they still on rosters?

There are articles for all of the above

[CrimsonFox]

Okay Bengals, I give up. Why would you draft 2 tight ends?

[Ksyrup]

Keon Coleman apparently did a comedy routine at his Bills press conference.

[albionmoonlight]

[Swaggs]

I don’t know much about his personality or character, but I’ve always felt kind of bad for Rattler. I know there’s been some reports that he wasn’t a great teammate early on (and apparently was immature in a documentary about him during high school).

I followed him some as a B12 fan and he seemed as if he was the heir apparent to Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts in Lincoln Riley’s offense, lost 2 games (both by one score) his first season going 9-2 during the Covid season, started 2021 as one of the faces of college football and started 6-0 without dominating, but got benched mid-season for not crushing people for what we now know was a generational talent in Caleb Williams. Oklahoma ended up losing two games that year anyway because their defense was uncommonly poor (by their standards), but Rattler’s 2020 season was arguably as good as Williams’ Heisman year (less yards passing and rushing, but higher passer rating, yards per attempt, and completion pct).

Just kind of wild how he lost his job (15-2 as a starter with pretty outstanding stats) and fell so far. I doubt he’ll ever be a starter, but hopefully has a decent career.

[CrimsonFox]

wow some of these teams went all out taking undrafted rookies. while others didn't seem to care. Looking at YOU atlanta. I mean since atl didn't get a ton of offensive help in the draft you'd think they would be all over it with free prospects.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

wow some of these teams went all out taking undrafted rookies. while others didn't seem to care. Looking at YOU atlanta. I mean since atl didn't get a ton of offensive help in the draft you'd think they would be all over it with free prospects.

Not really unusual. Some teams are always ahead of others, sometimes it's a matter of negotiations (UDFAs can receive multiple offers to pick & choose from). Other times it's a matter of agreements being reached that just aren't announced as quickly as others.

[GrantDawg]

The Falcons don't have a lot of roster spots on the offensive side of the ball right now. They had a spending spree in the off-season on wide receivers, many of whom are 4-5th type starters. Lots of them special team specialist, that would be the type of guy you would be looking for in UDFA. Still, they have signed 2 WR. How many more exactly were you expecting?

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Not really unusual. Some teams are always ahead of others, sometimes it's a matter of negotiations (UDFAs can receive multiple offers to pick & choose from). Other times it's a matter of agreements being reached that just aren't announced as quickly as others.

huh...nice thanks

I was wondering how the UD people worked. Didn't know if they could go to multiple camps or what. So they get lots of offers and can choose? huh. Guess that means that everyone wants to go to popular teams and/or where they like

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Guess that means that everyone wants to go to popular teams and/or where they like

Or where they think they might actually have a chance to make the roster.

[CrimsonFox]

So do any of you guys go to any rookie camps? I assume they sell tickets to it

[Swaggs]

I loved the Steelers draft. Looks like to OL starters in the 1st and 2nd and potential starters at WR and LB with the two 3rd rounders, without having to trade up. The pro is that the two linemen and the LB seem like they were great value, but all three had injury histories.

The unfortunate thing is that AFC North Rivals drafted very well, too. I thought the Bengals did really well in making their team more physical. Mims is going to be really good as a RT and I think those two DL that they got will be solid for years. And the Ravens always seem to have enough wisdom and depth to take BPA and backfill when they lose guys to free agency. They look like they got an immediate contributor in Wiggins and then four other guys that will probably sit and play special teams for a year or two and then be ready to be solid to above average starters down the road. At least the Browns are still paying for the Watson deal.

[JPhillips]

I saw one guy say the four best AFC drafts were Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals.

The AFC North is just brutal.

[Passacaglia]

I'm starting to become more okay with the Penix pick, but I still can't get past the hubris of "we don't plan to be drafting in the top 20 anytime soon" -- okay, 2018 is the last time you haven't drafted in the top 20, and you've done it six years in a row since, so I'm not sure I understand the confidence here.