WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN - Page 17

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 07:52 PM

dzilla -
saldana - EF, sndvls
dubb - lathum, mauboy
mauboy -
autumn - grammaticus
mckerney - narcizo, autumn, hoops, mrbug, commo, dzilla
jackal - saldana
lathum - dubb, jackal, danny, RA
mrbug - CF, mckerney

Raiders Army · 10-04-2011, 07:52 PM

FWIW, we do have a 20% chance that the lightbringer will not die if cleansed.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

dzilla, if you are roled, why would you draw so much attention to yourself by moving off on the tie so early?

FWIW that is exactly where I like to play when I am roled. My reasoning is it makes me extremely unlikely to be NK'ed and I can always reveal to avoid a lynch.

Danny · 10-04-2011, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think you guys are misunderstanding me. I'm not saying those people are wolves, or that they have to be wolves. I'm saying, just like we look at say second voters early in a day, or last minute switches, looking at the first movers after a reveal can be illuminating. That's all. I like to keep track of who it is, as it can be one more piece in the pile of circumstantial evidence.

I still completely disagree. I think it simply shows who was reading the thread first. My vote wasn't on Dzilla, but if it was I would have switched off ASAP after his reveal if it was.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I am strongly considering a switch back to Autumn

lol, this isn't old enough news for you? Every game I make a bunch of thoughts out loud about what might or might not be wolf behavior, then people start jumping on me for thinking out loud. I could write a script to play WW for me.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I still completely disagree. I think it simply shows who was reading the thread first. My vote wasn't on Dzilla, but if it was I would have switched off ASAP after his reveal if it was.

Yup. A wolf will always be caught in that lie eventually. Unless it is on the verge of the deadline you move your vote. You move your vote regardless on D1. No way the wolf who fake reveals on D1 makes it to the end of the game.

SnDvls · 10-04-2011, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think you guys are misunderstanding me. I'm not saying those people are wolves, or that they have to be wolves. I'm saying, just like we look at say second voters early in a day, or last minute switches, looking at the first movers after a reveal can be illuminating. That's all. I like to keep track of who it is, as it can be one more piece in the pile of circumstantial evidence.

I look at it as someone who was caught up in the thread. I was a whole page behind when the reveal happened but invoted right away then finished reading so I guess just because I was behind I get a pass then?

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

lol, this isn't old enough news for you? Every game I make a bunch of thoughts out loud about what might or might not be wolf behavior, then people start jumping on me for thinking out loud. I could write a script to play WW for me.

Hey, I think I was in this script last game.

mauchow · 10-04-2011, 07:56 PM

unvote dubbs

Not sure I'm going to hop on the autumn bandwagon at the moment... I think the logic sounded better at first but now he's just trying to backpedal a little.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I still completely disagree. I think it simply shows who was reading the thread first. My vote wasn't on Dzilla, but if it was I would have switched off ASAP after his reveal if it was.

In a world with only villagers, it would show that absolutely. In a world with wolves, it is also slightly skewed by the needs of the wolves to look like good villagers. A good villager is one who makes sure roled villagers don't get killed, ASAP. So among good villagers, villagers who are in thread at the time, early moves will usually also include wolves who are in thread at the time. A wolf is never going to hang around in thread and not move off a reveal, is basically my point.

Grammaticus · 10-04-2011, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

FWIW that is exactly where I like to play when I am roled. My reasoning is it makes me extremely unlikely to be NK'ed and I can always reveal to avoid a lynch.

I think you are a pretty risky player and I guess that is one of the reasons you are pretty good at subversion. But most people with a powerful role like that try not to pull attention on them. Unless they are just like that in general.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

dzilla, if you are roled, why would you draw so much attention to yourself by moving off on the tie so early?

well in his defense he did not know ntn was a wolf. how could he? As for moving off a tie, I see nothing wrong with that. That was just unlucky it came up like that.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Hey, I think I was in this script last game.

How does it feel to know you were playing against a bot?

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Just waiting on the undead hand to smack you

is it YOUR undead hand? HmmmmMMMMM?

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

How does it feel to know you were playing against a bot?

so autumn, when you move do the 47 other bots all move the same direction?

Grammaticus · 10-04-2011, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

well in his defense he did not know ntn was a wolf. how could he? As for moving off a tie, I see nothing wrong with that. That was just unlucky it came up like that.

I guess if he was a wolf also. That is the whole point. Now with the reveal, not so much.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:02 PM

I've considered in the past doing a "FOFC Werewolf" Werewolf game, where the roles are all people who play here. Clearly my ability would be to spout nonsense and distract the village.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:03 PM

But that's the whole point. He isn't a wolf. And you're asking him now after knowing that is all.

saldana · 10-04-2011, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

In a world with only villagers, it would show that absolutely. In a world with wolves, it is also slightly skewed by the needs of the wolves to look like good villagers. A good villager is one who makes sure roled villagers don't get killed, ASAP. So among good villagers, villagers who are in thread at the time, early moves will usually also include wolves who are in thread at the time. A wolf is never going to hang around in thread and not move off a reveal, is basically my point.

neither is a villager!

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I've considered in the past doing a "FOFC Werewolf" Werewolf game, where the roles are all people who play here. Clearly my ability would be to spout nonsense and distract the village.

And don't forget the rule: If Crimson Fox is in the game, he MUST vote for you.

unvote Bug
vote Autumn

Grammaticus · 10-04-2011, 08:04 PM

Yeah, I don't really know anything about his style, so thinking things through.

saldana · 10-04-2011, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I've considered in the past doing a "FOFC Werewolf" Werewolf game, where the roles are all people who play here. Clearly my ability would be to spout nonsense and distract the village.

OOC, i already own the rights to this idea...there is a thread somewhere where i just randomly start posting the role descriptions...it was pretty funny if i may say so myself.

hoopsguy · 10-04-2011, 08:07 PM

I actually side with Autumn on his "wolves move off faster" because they are playing with complete info in terms of wolf/villager and thus are more rapid to "believe" a reveal. Villagers, who don't know anything basically, are more likely to question in thread or digest the reveal internally before moving off the player.

Certainly not 100% true, but I think there is something to what Autumn suggested.

And, if I was a cruel man, I would now move my vote to Autumn just to jerk his chain a little bit.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 08:09 PM

I think some people who are doing a bunch of analysis need to tune it to day 2. We have a bunch of good analysis so far but it is more geared for the back half of the game. Alot of the moves people are being fingered as wolves for simply don't work on D1. You may expect a wolf to make that move on D4/5/6+, but keep in mind yesterday was D1 and we are running under the theory there were only 2 wolves and multiple chances @ conversions.

Think about it like this. Do you link yourself to that wolf on D1? If not what do you do? I burn him. I distance myself from him as much as possible. On D4/5/6/7 do I do this? Maybe, probably not so much. But yesterday was D1. As a village we need to put this all in perspective.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

OOC, i already own the rights to this idea...there is a thread somewhere where i just randomly start posting the role descriptions...it was pretty funny if i may say so myself.

You can send the fine to my address.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

I think some people who are doing a bunch of analysis need to tune it to day 2. We have a bunch of good analysis so far but it is more geared for the back half of the game. Alot of the moves people are being fingered as wolves for simply don't work on D1. You may expect a wolf to make that move on D4/5/6+, but keep in mind yesterday was D1 and we are running under the theory there were only 2 wolves and multiple chances @ conversions.

Think about it like this. Do you link yourself to that wolf on D1? If not what do you do? I burn him. I distance myself from him as much as possible. On D4/5/6/7 do I do this? Maybe, probably not so much. But yesterday was D1. As a village we need to put this all in perspective.

Sitting back and doing nothing would be a good alternative to burning him as well. I think anyone voting for someone who they think attempted to protect NtN yesterday needs to put the reasons why they are making that vote into the above perspective. Would you have made that move on D1 with only 2 wolves and multiple chances @ conversion going forward?

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I actually side with Autumn on his "wolves move off faster" because they are playing with complete info in terms of wolf/villager and thus are more rapid to "believe" a reveal. Villagers, who don't know anything basically, are more likely to question in thread or digest the reveal internally before moving off the player.

Certainly not 100% true, but I think there is something to what Autumn suggested.

And, if I was a cruel man, I would now move my vote to Autumn just to jerk his chain a little bit.

Thanks for getting what I mean. Yes, a villager might chew over a reveal, try to decide if it's fake. A wolf doesn't generally dare do that.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:13 PM

Incidently dubb, I am not running under the assumption that there were only 2 wolves at the start.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Sitting back and doing nothing would be a good alternative to burning him as well. I think anyone voting for someone who they think attempted to protect NtN yesterday needs to put the reasons why they are making that vote into the above perspective. Would you have made that move on D1 with only 2 wolves and multiple chances @ conversion going forward?

Well, the alternative is to pick from the 20 other people who did nothing related to the lynching of NTN? I agree, percentages say the other wolves weren't really involved in it, but then that gives us absolutely nothing to base a vote on.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Incidently dubb, I am not running under the assumption that there were only 2 wolves at the start.

Well that would be a change from last time. Incidentally last game was heading towards a wolf victory and Abe seems to have gimped the villager a little more this time than last(can't item pass to roles).

Talking about game balance/mechanics here. The game was won by the wolves up to the point where it was blown up. We can also see in the rules the village had powers taken away from it. While it is possible the wolves were given greater numbers here I doubt it. I would guess that the wolves were infact down graded is powers as well. Most likely conversion mechanics.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, the alternative is to pick from the 20 other people who did nothing related to the lynching of NTN? I agree, percentages say the other wolves weren't really involved in it, but then that gives us absolutely nothing to base a vote on.

Well at the end of the day you can either play the percentages or vote based on gut. I do a little bit of both and as you have admitted you can't be doing both right now if.......

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Well that would be a change from last time. Incidentally last game was heading towards a wolf victory and Abe seems to have gimped the villager a little more this time than last(can't item pass to roles).

Talking about game balance/mechanics here. The game was won by the wolves up to the point where it was blown up. We can also see in the rules the village had powers taken away from it. While it is possible the wolves were given greater numbers here I doubt it. I would guess that the wolves were infact down graded is powers as well. Most likely conversion mechanics.

I think there are more villager roles, no?

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I actually side with Autumn on his "wolves move off faster" because they are playing with complete info in terms of wolf/villager and thus are more rapid to "believe" a reveal. Villagers, who don't know anything basically, are more likely to question in thread or digest the reveal internally before moving off the player.

Certainly not 100% true, but I think there is something to what Autumn suggested.

And, if I was a cruel man, I would now move my vote to Autumn just to jerk his chain a little bit.

I do think, however, that there are many players that are more laid back about this and just don't work that way. Just sit there and digest info or log in and forget they are logged in or just don't want to move until they know where they want to go. I don't understand it either but I've seen people not act and not post for many reasons.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think there are more villager roles, no?

By 2 but I'm pretty sure The Tinkerer was a private role last time around. The Lifegiver is powerful however.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Thanks for getting what I mean. Yes, a villager might chew over a reveal, try to decide if it's fake. A wolf doesn't generally dare do that.

Why do you keep hinting that you are a wolf?

Every page you have a post that has a word in it related to eating.

Or are you just hungry...

mckerney · 10-04-2011, 08:21 PM

I'm the martyr so I guess it's my role to die rather that someone with an important role so it's not too bad if the vote holds and I'm lynched here. I would rather we find a wolf today though.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:21 PM

Can the lifegiver resurrect a roled player? I'm sure they probably could.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Why do you keep hinting that you are a wolf?

Every page you have a post that has a word in it related to eating.

Or are you just hungry...

lol, I didn't even do that on purpose. I was afraid to say something about the chain knowing you'd jump on it too!

I am hungry. I just ate an apple.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm the martyr so I guess it's my role to die rather that someone with an important role so it's not too bad if the vote holds and I'm lynched here. I would rather we find a wolf today though.

Well currently you are doing your job. Ha haaaaaaaaaaa ...is this thing on?...

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Can the lifegiver resurrect a roled player? I'm sure they probably could.

I'm basically 100% positive he can.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:23 PM

unvote autumn

That vote was a joke post anyway but I'm rethinking. Maybe everyone should reveal and then we can vote.

Lathum · 10-04-2011, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I must have misread his comment. Still voting for you though, something doesn't sit right with me about your knee jerk reaction to immedeatly vote me back

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

That's fine. We can play this out. I will stay the same as well. Between your vote with no reasoning yesterday, your cryptic roled comments yesterday(yet here you still are), and your refusal to admit you were wrong today I would say you are as good a candidate as any today as well.

Werewolf should be a study in how people see the things they want to see. I clearly admitted I misread hoops comments, yet Dubb claims I didn't.

Just in case I wasn't clear enough though...

Dear Dubb

I fully admit I was incorrect in my reading of and subsequent agreement of Hoopguys comments. I apologize for any inconvenience it may have caused. See the thing is work has been very busy lately and I can often only skim over threads. I work for an insurance company and there has been a lot of rain in the Seattle area, so I must dedicate more time to my tasks at work and less time to werewolf. It has made me a far less attentive player, but unfortunately sacrifices must be made. I am truly sorry and as soon as my son goes to bed tonight and my wife gets home ( she has a late work meeting) I will head to the nearest chapel to confess my wrong doings, don't worry, I will probably only have to say ten hail marys and a few our fathers. I hope that will suffice as to me admitting just how very wrong I was, and again, my sincerest apologies for not properly addressing this sooner.

Sincerely

Lathum

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:24 PM

Damn, we're turning up roles left and right.

And just so people can amuse themselves by beating me with my own words...

unvote mckerney
vote the jackal

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:24 PM

LOL lathum that is awesome.

CrimsonFox · 10-04-2011, 08:24 PM

Thank you autumn, you were being timed!

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Werewolf should be a study in how people see the things they want to see. I clearly admitted I misread hoops comments, yet Dubb claims I didn't.

Just in case I wasn't clear enough though...

Dear Dubb

I fully admit I was incorrect in my reading of and subsequent agreement of Hoopguys comments. I apologize for any inconvenience it may have caused. See the thing is work has been very busy lately and I can often only skim over threads. I work for an insurance company and there has been a lot of rain in the Seattle area, so I must dedicate more time to my tasks at work and less time to werewolf. It has made me a far less attentive player, but unfortunately sacrifices must be made. I am truly sorry and as soon as my son goes to bed tonight and my wife gets home ( she has a late work meeting) I will head to the nearest chapel to confess my wrong doings, don't worry, I will probably only have to say ten hail marys and a few our fathers. I hope that will suffice as to me admitting just how very wrong I was, and again, my sincerest apologies for not properly addressing this sooner.

Sincerely

Lathum

This is 100% different than I imagined my Dubb/Lathum showdown, but it is also the best thing ever.

dubb93 · 10-04-2011, 08:25 PM

I refuse to accept apologies.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:26 PM

I'm moving to Jackal just because he was the other person on my list that has any votes. I don't really have a lot of time to ponder it right now, but hoefully will.

Autumn · 10-04-2011, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

I refuse to accept apologies.

This however, I totally expected. ;-)

hoopsguy · 10-04-2011, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

I refuse to accept apologies.

This is closer to what I expected to see if a Lathum/Dubb showdown came to pass

10-04-2011, 07:52 PM	#801
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	dzilla - saldana - EF, sndvls dubb - lathum, mauboy mauboy - autumn - grammaticus mckerney - narcizo, autumn, hoops, mrbug, commo, dzilla jackal - saldana lathum - dubb, jackal, danny, RA mrbug - CF, mckerney

10-04-2011, 07:52 PM	#802
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	FWIW, we do have a 20% chance that the lightbringer will not die if cleansed.

10-04-2011, 07:56 PM	#809
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	unvote dubbs Not sure I'm going to hop on the autumn bandwagon at the moment... I think the logic sounded better at first but now he's just trying to backpedal a little.

10-04-2011, 08:02 PM	#817
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I've considered in the past doing a "FOFC Werewolf" Werewolf game, where the roles are all people who play here. Clearly my ability would be to spout nonsense and distract the village.

10-04-2011, 08:03 PM	#818
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	But that's the whole point. He isn't a wolf. And you're asking him now after knowing that is all.

10-04-2011, 08:04 PM	#821
Grammaticus Pro Rookie Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Tennessee	Yeah, I don't really know anything about his style, so thinking things through.

10-04-2011, 08:07 PM	#823
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I actually side with Autumn on his "wolves move off faster" because they are playing with complete info in terms of wolf/villager and thus are more rapid to "believe" a reveal. Villagers, who don't know anything basically, are more likely to question in thread or digest the reveal internally before moving off the player. Certainly not 100% true, but I think there is something to what Autumn suggested. And, if I was a cruel man, I would now move my vote to Autumn just to jerk his chain a little bit.

10-04-2011, 08:13 PM	#828
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Incidently dubb, I am not running under the assumption that there were only 2 wolves at the start.

10-04-2011, 08:21 PM	#836
mckerney Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	I'm the martyr so I guess it's my role to die rather that someone with an important role so it's not too bad if the vote holds and I'm lynched here. I would rather we find a wolf today though.

10-04-2011, 08:21 PM	#837
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Can the lifegiver resurrect a roled player? I'm sure they probably could.

10-04-2011, 08:23 PM	#841
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	unvote autumn That vote was a joke post anyway but I'm rethinking. Maybe everyone should reveal and then we can vote.

10-04-2011, 08:24 PM	#843
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Damn, we're turning up roles left and right. And just so people can amuse themselves by beating me with my own words... unvote mckerney vote the jackal

10-04-2011, 08:24 PM	#844
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	LOL lathum that is awesome.

10-04-2011, 08:24 PM	#845
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Thank you autumn, you were being timed!

10-04-2011, 08:26 PM	#848
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I'm moving to Jackal just because he was the other person on my list that has any votes. I don't really have a lot of time to ponder it right now, but hoefully will.

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