Werewolf LVI: Beneath the Iron Cross - GAME OVER, VILLAGERS WIN!

[Antmeister]

And oliegirl, whenever you can, please scan Chief Rum. I don't know what's the deal with him.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

And oliegirl, whenever you can, please scan Chief Rum. I don't know what's the deal with him.

Beat ya there pal

[Barkeep49]

BTW, I didn't mention this, and it is kind of self serving, but I think ollie is playing a good game. I respect each of the people she's chosen to scan, her philosophy for doing so, and I think she revealed in the right way, trying to be subtle at first, but not waiting too long to make sure we didn't get sidetracked.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Beat ya there pal

That's ridiculous.

[RealDeal]

Ain't doing it. Maybe tomorrow, not today.

Both the distraction argument and the fool/seer argument make no sense to me. Render is only a distraction because we are letting outselves get distracted. It's self-fulfilling logic: "well, player x is under suspicion, so might as well kill him because he's distracting us."

If you believe he's a wolf, then lynch him, but if you believe he isn't, the fact that he's a "distraction" is a awful reason to lynch him.

And as far as the fool/seer, the fool/seer could scan Ant tonight and get the same shot of discovering which they are.

The million dollar question is do you think Hoops would tell you who another wolf is? If you believe Render is the most likely wolf on the board, by all means vote for him. But if you don't, then the other reasons don't hold water.

Right now I think Ant is a more likely wolf than Render. I just don't believe that Hoops told us who the wolf is.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

Ain't doing it. Maybe tomorrow, not today.

Both the distraction argument and the fool/seer argument make no sense to me. Render is only a distraction because we are letting outselves get distracted. It's self-fulfilling logic: "well, player x is under suspicion, so might as well kill him because he's distracting us."

If you believe he's a wolf, then lynch him, but if you believe he isn't, the fact that he's a "distraction" is a awful reason to lynch him.

And as far as the fool/seer, the fool/seer could scan Ant tonight and get the same shot of discovering which they are.

The million dollar question is do you think Hoops would tell you who another wolf is? If you believe Render is the most likely wolf on the board, by all means vote for him. But if you don't, then the other reasons don't hold water.

Right now I think Ant is a more likely wolf than Render. I just don't believe that Hoops told us who the wolf is.

So what's the arguement that points to me?

[Lorena]

Dammit I got sucked in. I'm the "guest" lurking

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

The other time I blew up was when I revealed myself on Day 1 in the WW40k game as a villager who could not be wolf killed, and the villagers lynched me day 1. It still angers me to think about it, because it was such a horrible play. I don't really feel bad about that one either, in retrospect. If people are playing that badly, they should be screamed at a little.

I was pretty furious about that, too, and I wasn't even the one getting lynched. There were some smart people who played really stupidly that day.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

The million dollar question is do you think Hoops would tell you who another wolf is?

Yes. Undoubtly. Without a reservation. Hoops has come VERY VERY close to selling out other wolves when I've played as a wolf with him. I think he could have finally pulled the trigger. I'm not certain he did, but it's in his repertoire. I would be FAR more skeptical with just about any other Alpha wolf.

If you believe Render is the most likely wolf on the board, by all means vote for him. But if you don't, then the other reasons don't hold water.

And since I do trust hoops, I think that Render has the greatest probability of being a wolf.

But perhaps you don't trust hoops at all; fair enough, I've certainly seen a side of him you haven't, and if the positions were reversed I'd be skeptical as well. Let's look at the other factor, who has been cleared. Render is not on that list. Even if there wasn't the hoops thing he would deserve scrutiny today now that we have a COT. You like, I know, when villagers share info. Well we've got quite a bit of villager generated info out there now. Render is, mathematically, just as good a random choice (based on cleared list) as anyone else.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

BTW, I didn't mention this, and it is kind of self serving, but I think ollie is playing a good game. I respect each of the people she's chosen to scan, her philosophy for doing so, and I think she revealed in the right way, trying to be subtle at first, but not waiting too long to make sure we didn't get sidetracked.

Awww, thanks BK!

But...it's Olie, not Ollie I'm not a skater girl...

[saldana]

Originally Posted by path12

I remember that. Classic meltdown. I woulda been pissed too, even though I think I was one of the people who voted for you then.....

i remember it too, because i was the one that led the charge...i had, however, forgotten it was RealDeal that i got lynched.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Dammit I got sucked in. I'm the "guest" lurking

Busted!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

i remember it too, because i was the one that led the charge...i had, however, forgotten it was RealDeal that i got lynched.

I believe that I did not vote for RealDeal that day, and that is what ended up causing the next day disaster involving Saldana and my scan of him in that game!

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

In light of Oliegirl's information, it appears hoops was telling the truth there, doesn't it?

What difference does that make? I didn't say he lied about every single thing, the best falshoods are couched in truths. I said you can't TRUST him, I never said he was a fool and would lie about everything. *edited snarky remark*

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

My possible vote for RendeR is maybe weighted 50% on the vibe I got from him Day 1, 25% on his Day One vote (with Wolf Eagle Fan and others for Villager St. Cronin) and 25% on what hoops said. I agree that blindly going on

I can forgive the first reason, the second is inexperience, St. Cronin and I go back and forth on day one votes almost every game. My normal statement is: Vote St. Cronin, he's a wolf, and even when he isn't, he IS. The last bit I simply cannot acept, its stupid. You cannot EVER trust what is fed to you by a known and condemned wolf. At best if you do its humerous, at worst its just ignorant.

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Wow. I wish I had been around more today.

Render: You said there was no reason for anyone to think you're a wolf except that hoops said so. You're right. There's not. Just as there was no reason for anyone to think hoops was a wolf except NTN said so. Fact is hoops did say so.

And this is what is so infuriating, you have absolutely no good reason to trust anything hoops said, yet you're going to base a lynch on him fingering me as his teamate? its just stupid BK, sorry but I'm not pulling punches on this one. if you vote for me based on hoops picking me out its just plain stupid, bad play, period.

And my point is I shouldn't BE a distraction, the fact is we shouldn't even be having this conversation, I oughta be pretty trustworthy seeing the source of the accusation was the alpha wolf. I honestly cannot comprehend your position, its mindfracking bogling.

Originally Posted by ArlingtonColt

I also remember reading that Hoops wolf reveal would come out pissed off fighting... which matches what RendeR is doing... although I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same thing (with less profanity)

So... RendeR who do you propose we change our votes too? What evidence have you seen? BK in my mind has been cleared... My CoT = Myself, Olie, BK, NTN

Based on Olie's(a trusted person) vote, I'll go with her and vote Antmeister until something more concrete comes along.

Originally Posted by RealDeal

I've blown up twice in WW games. Once was the infamous game with blade where I felt like, in conjunction with his actions in a couple of other games, he was intentionally playing half-ass or trying to screw up his own team. I probably was wrong about that after seeing more and more of blade's style, but I don't really feel that bad about it even now.

The other time I blew up was when I revealed myself on Day 1 in the WW40k game as a villager who could not be wolf killed, and the villagers lynched me day 1. It still angers me to think about it, because it was such a horrible play. I don't really feel bad about that one either, in retrospect. If people are playing that badly, they should be screamed at a little.

IMO, if you just get mad simply because someone thinks you're a wolf, then it's inappropriate. If you are angry because villagers seem to be purposely sabotaging the team effort or playing in an utterly incompetent manner, I'm all for it.

To me, the most memorable games in WW history are some of the ones where there were some fireworks. I enjoy the spectacle of it. But I'm the type of guy who enjoys brawls in baseball and basketball, and ostentacious endzone celebrations in football, too.

Thank You again RD, I appreciate being understood at least, instead of peremptorily assumed guilty because I get pised off.

Originally Posted by oliegirl

He came back as Villager...which means one of two things:

He's an unroled villager, or he's a wolf.

I am just not comfortable voting for someone based off of Hoops accusation...I think that is a bad path to go down.

If there is a bodyguard still out there, I hope he protects me tonight b/c I'm sure I'll be a target.

Actually, you're not much of a target anymore are you? you've revealed about all the roles that could be out there, not much left for you to uncover in any way.

Originally Posted by RealDeal

The only thing on Render is that Hoops said he was a wolf.

I cannot bring myself to vote for Render at this point simply because, if he is a villager, I don't want to see 2 more pages after the game is over of Hoops bragging about how brilliant he is for being a revealed wolf and getting a villager killed. If Render is a wolf, we'll get him eventually, but I'm not going to let Hoops dupe me.

I heart RealDeal, a voice of sense and reason in an underground military facility full of insanity.

[ntndeacon]

Vote RendeR

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Beat ya there pal

i beat both of you about 25 posts ago!!

[ntndeacon]

I don't feel too bad about this. Even if we are wrong about him being a wolf, at worse we are killing an unnamed villager, and if we get lucky perhaps kill off a unholy mark.

I realize this is a little cavilier and could end up biting us in the rear. I do assume if RendeR is a wolf we have 2 left not one though.

[ArlingtonColt]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

So let's see, Hoops gets lynched and either

A) NTN tells the truth, Hoops is a non-Wolfling Wolf and we're stoked
B) NTN tells the truth, Hoops is the Wolfling Wolf and we're confused
C) NTN lied and he's lynched next and we're stoked

I'll take my chances.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

From what I saw on the game in the other forum, jeheinz is going to be a fun first-time player.

I was thinking hoops might pick jeheinz because of this quote.... but he was one of the first people to go after hoops when the NTN reveal happened.

I don't like how RendeR starts off day 2 with a vote on me RIGHT off the bat.. without explaination... and then after the NTN reveal he "leaves" and doesn't change his vote. Its all on page 8 if you want to go back and have a look. Looks to me like his gravy train he was trying to start on me got foiled by ntn so he was going to strategize with his wolfie buddies.

[Barkeep49]

And this is what is so infuriating, you have absolutely no good reason to trust anything hoops said, yet you're going to base a lynch on him fingering me as his teamate? its just stupid BK, sorry but I'm not pulling punches on this one. if you vote for me based on hoops picking me out its just plain stupid, bad play, period.

I don't like being called stupid when I have explained several times why I do have a good reason to trust hoops: I have talked to him a lot, both as mutual observers of games, as mutual villagers after games, and as wolves during games. See post 809 for further information on this.

[Barkeep49]

AC: Are you suggesting we should look at jheinz?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Dammit I got sucked in. I'm the "guest" lurking

I was bummed you dropped out.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

I was bummed you dropped out.

Me too, though I always end up feeling bad since she's so hard on herself about her play which is normally no better or worse than the rest of us.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't like being called stupid when I have explained several times why I do have a good reason to trust hoops: I have talked to him a lot, both as mutual observers of games, as mutual villagers after games, and as wolves during games. See post 809 for further information on this.

Perhaps I'm not being clear enough here and I'll state the obvious.


Hoopsguy KNOWS this about you. Do you think for one instant he wouldn't use it to his advantage?

Lets go to the tried and true Occams razor process:

What is more the simplest choice is probably the right one, so tell me, IS the alpha wolf outing a teamate the simplest option? Or does it make more sense that the alpha would target someone he knows to be a villager, who he also knows to be a regular target of suspicion (I still don' know WHY I get this) and names that person to focus our attention away from the pther wolf(s)?

Which of those options is the more likely scenario, exculding your personal bias to trust everything hoopsguy feeds you. If you didn't have that gut instint to trust him, which would make more sense to you?

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

AC: Are you suggesting we should look at jheinz?

Well you are not on the other end of it. Werewolf puts her in bad moods.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by path12

I was bummed you dropped out.

Well that was brilliant. Quoted the wrong thing.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Well you are not on the other end of it. Werewolf puts her in bad moods.

It isn't doing much for mine lately either.

[RendeR]

AC: My day 2 vote for you was actually following Real Deal's lead. It was time to get ready for work and I even posted that I needed to re-evaluate my vote right after that point because I saw then the reveal ntn made about hoops.

Nothing real suspicious in that vote, just crossing posts and having to go to work delayed my updating it right away.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

It isn't doing much for mine lately either.

Werewolf is all about injustice. You're gonna get killed or lynched unfairly most of the time.

Besides, a plain villager shouldn't get upset about taking one for the team. At least you're not costing a role. Unless you're the seer. Then you should be pissed.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Well you are not on the other end of it. Werewolf puts her in bad moods.

That would be a problem. But hey, not for me!

I thought she was as good a player as any of the rest of us.

[path12]

I'm bringing this back to revise a bit.

Originally Posted by path12

OK, I'll bite (so to speak). I'm hoops, and I'm the Alpha. Who do I choose and why?

Assumption #1: I am not going to survive the game. Being a prime conversation driver, and also one of the better players here, I'm going to get scanned early.

Assumption #2: There are others in the game who number 1 applies to, though to a far lesser extent. I want to be careful about picking those people.

Assumption #3: However, I do not think it's fair to pick just folks who won't be around or have a very limited presence. It doesn't meet my scale of 'fairness', plus I believe that in order to win wolves need to be around to pay attention and bounce strategies off one another.

Assumption #4: Since I do believe I'm going to die early in this game, I do want one experienced person I trust to help the other wolves......but only one.

Now then to look at the player list:

1. path12 -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate.
2. hoopsguy -- I AM ALPHA!!!1!1!! (CONFIRMED -- DEAD)
3. saldana -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate.
4. PurdueBrad -- Newer player, active, been suspected early lately, prob pass.
(DEAD, SEER/FOOL)
5. ArlingtonColt -- Newer player, not as active, possible but unlikely.
6. st.cronin -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate. Recent wolf. (DEAD VILLAGER)
7. RendeR -- Playing well, involved in thread, not so exp that 2/4 apply. Very possible. (NAMED BY HOOPS)
8. jeheinz72 -- First game, seems like would be involved. Very possible.
9. oliegirl -- Newer player, fairly active, very possible. (INQUISITIVE)
10. DaddyTorgo -- Experienced, active, unpredictable. Very possible. (HERBALIST)
11. Antmeister -- Newer player, not as active, possible but unlikely.
12. Chief Rum -- Assumptions 2 and 4 apply, possible candidate. Recent wolf.
13. EagleFan -- Jumping in feet first, active and doing well. I'd pick him. (BRUTAL WOLF)
14. RealDeal -- Hasn't been around for awhile, but skilled player. Perfect pick also.
15. ntndeacon -- Experienced, keeps thoughts close to vest. Very possible. (WITNESS)
16. Barkeep49 -- Always suspect, plus 2 and 4 apply. Either a definite because people won't expect it or definitely not. (HOLY MARK?)
17. Passacaglia -- Experienced, rather have on my side than not. Very possible. (DEAD)

So in looking at it this way, my top five options as hoops are: RealDeal, EagleFan, jeheinz72, Passacaglia, RendeR. Plus one of the path/sal/stc/CR/BK group.

[path12]

Crap, another meeting before I can add my thoughts. Back in awhile.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

Werewolf is all about injustice. You're gonna get killed or lynched unfairly most of the time.

Besides, a plain villager shouldn't get upset about taking one for the team. At least you're not costing a role. Unless you're the seer. Then you should be pissed.

I can handle getting lynched in a normal sense, but this situation is just rediculous, If pepole were bandwagoning on me as a day-1 style "lets lynch someone, anyone, really" type thing I could accept it, but being pointed out by a known entity and having the wolf and well known ACE manipulator at that, and having people blindly trust it..thats just...infuriating.

Its terrible WW play to be perfectly honest. You have to think that if they're right, then Hoops made what I would see as a really unethical play to oust his team and end the game early, which goes against the game itself. So even barring blind man-love (sorry bk, couldn't resist) that point should tell you that he's lied about fingering me.

Its not that I mind the lynching so much, but I just can't abide foolishness. Looking at the facts we have, the fact that hoops named me should have us looking at others at least for a day or two before assuming I'm actually evil.

The frustration of KNOWING that I'm not the wolf and watching this freakish adoration of hoopsguy lead to my death, well, yeah, I got upset. What can you do, its the way the game works.

[RendeR]

Can someone clarify why we've eliminated the unholy mark from BK? It obviously comes down to holy/unholy mark for him, but why wouldn't it be the unholy mark?

It reads as a villager until he is attacked. Its a wolf role yes, but until conversion he IS a villager. So Olie's read on him would still show up villager w/role, or am I just really confused? Did I miss where she specifically stated this somewhere?

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Can someone clarify why we've eliminated the unholy mark from BK? It obviously comes down to holy/unholy mark for him, but why wouldn't it be the unholy mark?

It reads as a villager until he is attacked. Its a wolf role yes, but until conversion he IS a villager. So Olie's read on him would still show up villager w/role, or am I just really confused? Did I miss where she specifically stated this somewhere?

From what I understand, she can only read villager roles. The Unholy Mark is a werewolf role and she wouldn't be able to read that.

[RendeR]

Re-reading that post path, the first group(RealDeal, EagleFan, jeheinz72, Passacaglia, RendeR) comes down to me, real Deal and jeHeinz, *I* Knowing that I am a villager, and realizing that Real Deal wouldn't be defending my position if he were a wolf (he'd let you lynch me in that case) That leaves Jeheinz from the first listing.

he's also been adamant to lynch me as well, no matter the arguments brought up for him.

From the latter group:
path/sal/stc/CR/BK

Cronin is dead, We seem to have removed BK from the suspect list so that leaves path saldana and rummy. Of those three, I honestly have no clue. Path always plays the helpful villager, so I can never tell with him, rumy said he'd be gone a lot this week so I can't just base anything on his absence, however that was known going in and hoops could have played upon that fact. Saldana, I got nothing there. I can't read her at all....


just my thoughts.

[Antmeister]

This is what I found in the ancient lorebook. Let me dust it off for you. I found it in the vault's library. Here, this is what it mentions about this symbol they call the Inquisitive.

Inquisitive - You are an Inquisitive Villager. Each night, you may choose to find out the Role of one player. You will only discover Villager roles. Werewolves will only appear as Villagers to you. The Fool will appear as a Seer.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

From what I understand, she can only read villager roles. The Unholy Mark is a werewolf role and she wouldn't be able to read that.

See this is where I'm hoping for a little clarification from neon, Because of the way the role works, He IS a villager until converted, so souldn't she be able to read the unholy mark on him?

Can i get a clarification NC? Can the inquisitive read the unholy mark on a villager or since that mark is wolfly, would she se nothing at all on that player?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Re-reading that post path, the first group(RealDeal, EagleFan, jeheinz72, Passacaglia, RendeR) comes down to me, real Deal and jeHeinz, *I* Knowing that I am a villager, and realizing that Real Deal wouldn't be defending my position if he were a wolf (he'd let you lynch me in that case)

Actually I find the opposite can be true. THe wolves know 100% who is a wolf and who is not, so on an issue like this they will often take the unpopular view so that they can go "see I knew it" and hopefully build some trust that way. If you are indeed a villager, there's not a whole lot of downside to a wolf defending you.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

This is what I found in the ancient lorebook. Let me dust it off for you. I found it in the vault's library. Here, this is what it mentions about this symbol they call the Inquisitive.

yeah you're probably right on that, and since she did say she saw a role its almost gotta be the holy mark.I guess that'll have to do me for now. Thanks for the help.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Perhaps I'm not being clear enough here and I'll state the obvious.


Hoopsguy KNOWS this about you. Do you think for one instant he wouldn't use it to his advantage?

He knows that about me. But he also knows that people would instinctively not trust a wolf. He said as much. You could entirely argue, as you have been, that hoops naming you means you're clearly a villager and some people are going to believe it. While hoops might have been able to predict that I would trust what he said, and could be using that against me, I don't think he'd be able to read others as well and wouldn't really know if I would be able to convince a majority to my point a view.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Actually I find the opposite can be true. THe wolves know 100% who is a wolf and who is not, so on an issue like this they will often take the unpopular view so that they can go "see I knew it" and hopefully build some trust that way. If you are indeed a villager, there's not a whole lot of downside to a wolf defending you.

I suppose I can see that. Not sure I like the "someone defending me" as the unpopular viewpoint

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

He knows that about me. But he also knows that people would instinctively not trust a wolf. He said as much. You could entirely argue, as you have been, that hoops naming you means you're clearly a villager and some people are going to believe it. While hoops might have been able to predict that I would trust what he said, and could be using that against me, I don't think he'd be able to read others as well and wouldn't really know if I would be able to convince a majority to my point a view.

Actually you are very good at gathering supporters. Whether you realize it or not.I think he knows this and played you on this one.

I KNOW I'm a villager, I can't prove it without killing myself in the big scary box. So All I can do is keep focus on the fact that the best play is to never trust what a wolf feeds you.

If you lynch me you learn absolutely nothing, nothing at all, its a wasted day and that, THAT, is exactly what hoops is playin for. Time or his teamates.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I suppose I can see that. Not sure I like the "someone defending me" as the unpopular viewpoint

. One point I forgot there is that while I think a wolf could defend you, if you are a villager, I don't see defending you as being more wolfish.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

That leaves Jeheinz from the first listing.

he's also been adamant to lynch me as well, no matter the arguments brought up for him.

1. We both know it's a bigger leap of faith that hoops would pick some dolt off the street (aka me) to be a Wolf than it is that he would double-bluff and provide the actual wolf game

2. If you read his response to my inquiring why he thought I'd be a fun first time player, he said it's either I'm being a good active wolf or whiffing badly as a villager in the other game of mine he was watching. Guess what, I was a villager in that game he saw (the only other one I've ever played). Not exactly a ringing endorsement to be picked. So yeah, go ahead and lead some charge against me. But I'm a villager. Plain and simple. You want to talk about feeling dumb the next day, people certainly would if they lynched me next.

3. What arguments? Ok, throw aside the Hoops naming thing. Let's pretend that's not effecting my decision at all at this point (which I admit, it's effecting less and less). That still leaves the -initial- vibe I got and the vote from Day One which still seems fishy to me. So I do have some reasons.

4. I see some people are going Ant right now. Can someone detail for me the case against? It's been splattered in multiple posts and I must not be getting the full jist, since I don't see it.

[oliegirl]

BK scanned as the Holy Mark...he's immune to Werewolf Attacks.

[Barkeep49]

jeheinz72: He thought you'd be a good player to play with because he read the game on other board you participated in. I could certainly see him choosing you as an UTR type because of that.

[RealDeal]

There isn't any real case against Ant. We have some info that eliminates a few people, and then we are guessing on the rest.

I voted for Ant because (i) I think Hoops fingering Render means that Render is not a wolf, (ii) pure gut instinct on Ant, and (iii) the voting appears to be coalescing mostly as Render and Ant, so since I feel strongly that Hoops is yanking our chain, I voted for Ant as that is the only meaningful person to vote for other than Render right now.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

jeheinz72: He thought you'd be a good player to play with because he read the game on other board you participated in. I could certainly see him choosing you as an UTR type because of that.

That seems like a risky play for him to make, but you all would know better than I, though I can assure you, he didn't choose this game in which to try it.

I'm innocent. Don't really know how else to dispute that logic. If people want to take that flimsy logic as a reason to lynch me, that's fine, but you'd only be hurting the village and you'd still have the issue of if Hoops is full of crap or not hovering over the talk.

[oliegirl]

Anyone know what the vote count is now?

[ntndeacon]

I think some of the votes for Ant is from his possible misunderstanding of my role. That seemed to draw looks his way. (And to be honest, I was sorely tempted to go that way as well.)