2012 Presidential Campaign

[molson]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

Having said all that...even if the guy were president...none of this crap would get passed.

Or maybe it would if the Republicans had a slight majority in Congress - the Dems have seemed to imply that that they would never be "obstructionists" like the Republicans.

[JPhillips]

No, they've rightfully said they haven't been obstructionists to the degree of the current GOP. I would fully expect the Dems to filibuster everything now as well, unless they go spineless which is always a safe bet. Once norms get broken it's damn hard to go back. Our system relies on the minority party not taking advantage of every tactic that they could use. Look at the nomination fight over the Commerce secretary. The government can't function like that.

[lungs]

Surprised there's been no talk about the Herman Cain scandal here.... Did everybody expect this or something?

Does this seal it for Romney?

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by lungs

Surprised there's been no talk about the Herman Cain scandal here.... Did everybody expect this or something?

Clarence Thomas part II.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Clarence Thomas part II.

The common tactic is to attack the liberal media for this.

But doesn't the timing tell us that a Republican would be behind putting this out there?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by lungs

Does this seal it for Romney?

Doubt it, not to this point anyway.

Cain still has a double digit lead in South Carolina for example, with Gingrich closing the gap on Romney for 2nd.

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by lungs

Surprised there's been no talk about the Herman Cain scandal here.... Did everybody expect this or something?

Does this seal it for Romney?

Personally I think Cain is at the point where all the stuff will come out of the woodwork and bring him down - first the womanizing stuff, now the Wisconsin thing where his campaign manager ran an organization that may have breached a lot of campaign finance rules, etc. I expect there will be more in the future. It's one of the costs of having President be your first run for office - all of the stuff comes out at once.

[molson]

I think the fact that this is such big news is a good sign for Cain. I'm not sure anyone would care as much about Rick Santorum sexual harassment allegations. I wouldn't go as far as to say its a good thing for him, but it might not be a bad thing at all.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Notable perhaps: 48% of SC voters are with either Cain or Gingrich. Not exactly a sign that "womanizing" claims are really hurting a candidate a whole lot right now.

Poll from yesterday in SC actually shows Cain posting his highest numbers to date there.

If, as it seems reasonable to speculate, the issue was pushed by a primary opponent, I wonder if the effort may backfire. At this point, any candidate that gets negative press from the "mainstream media" might actually get a pushback equal or greater than any damage.

[JPhillips]

I've been shocked at how poorly Cain has managed this. His initial denials followed by many revisions makes him look terrible. I'd think a guy from the modern corporate world would understand how to handle this sort of thing. Now he's set himself up either having to release the confidentiality and let one of his accusers speak or keep the confidentiality and have the press speculate on what he's hiding.

I guess this is the price for not having a real campaign apparatus.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I loved this line on the controversy:

And it’s worth asking: it is at least possible that the scandal, and the resulting media attention, could help Cain more than it hurts him?

New York Times Maureen Dowd sure doesn’t think so. In her column today, she says that “Cain was never going to be the nominee.” He’s too uninformed, too wacky, and now too untrustworthy in his response to the allegations. In her words: “The Herminator was just a raffish passing fancy, like Mr. Wickham, a place for Republicans to store their affections while they try to overcome their aversion to Mitt Romney’s Mr. Darcy.”

Yeah, because if there’s one thing Republican primary voters take their cues from, it’s New York Times columnists making Jane Austen analogies.

Could Sex-Scandal Coverage Be Doing Herman Cain a Favor?

[Passacaglia]

I would love to hear Herman Cain's response to being compared to Wickham.

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I've been shocked at how poorly Cain has managed this. His initial denials followed by many revisions makes him look terrible. I'd think a guy from the modern corporate world would understand how to handle this sort of thing. Now he's set himself up either having to release the confidentiality and let one of his accusers speak or keep the confidentiality and have the press speculate on what he's hiding.

I guess this is the price for not having a real campaign apparatus.

The evolution of responses was pretty hilarious.

I'm pretty sure, though, that the release of confidentiality isn't up to Cain, but up to the National Restaurant Association.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I would love to hear Herman Cain's response to being compared to Wickham.

I think the odds that Herman Cain knows who Wickham is are... low. Also, as I recall, Wickham transferred his affections from Lizzie due to financial incentives, which come to think of it, is akin to Cain with his book tour (ie, not running for president - running for book tour).

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

I think the odds that Herman Cain knows who Wickham is are... low. Also, as I recall, Wickham transferred his affections from Lizzie due to financial incentives, which come to think of it, is akin to Cain with his book tour (ie, not running for president - running for book tour).

Why? Because he's a Republican? Because he's black? Because he's stupid? Just clarifying on what would cause you to believe that he doesn't read.

[RainMaker]

I contend that the Herman Cain campaign is an elaborate prank. A Borat-esque routine. Seriously, these are actual things his campaign has released.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ-WT...feature=relmfu

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Rizon

I'm pretty sure, though, that the release of confidentiality isn't up to Cain, but up to the National Restaurant Association.

Which, I believe, had a Romney supporter as its head immediately following Cain's departure.

Things that make you go hmm ...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Incidentally

Campaign officials said they experienced the most lucrative 24-hour stretch of the campaign as the scandal swirled, bringing in $400,000 in online and phone donations. The one-day take was more than the campaign's monthly average for donations.

edit to add: Let's remember folks, I'm not planning on voting for Cain in the primary. That I'm not inclined to use any of this against his candidacy in the least might, just might, suggest how irrelevant it may be to his chances.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by panerd

Why? Because he's a Republican? Because he's black? Because he's stupid? Just clarifying on what would cause you to believe that he doesn't read.

Jon Stewart told us so.

Jon Stewart Makes Racially Charged Joke at Herman Cain's Expense: He Doesn't 'Like to Read' | NewsBusters.org

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Jon Stewart told us so.

Jon Stewart Makes Racially Charged Joke at Herman Cain's Expense: He Doesn't 'Like to Read' | NewsBusters.org

Yeah I'm not a big politically correct guy but couldn't see any other meaning behind him not knowing Pride and Prejudice outside of being a "stupid" Republican or being black. Doesn't everyone have to read that in high school?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Which, I believe, had a Romney supporter as its head immediately following Cain's departure.

Things that make you go hmm ...

The most ridiculous part of this whole affair is the far right blaming the liberal media. This has GOP candidate written all over it, most likely Romney or a surrogate.

[I. J. Reilly]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The most ridiculous part of this whole affair is the far right blaming the liberal media. This has GOP candidate written all over it, most likely Romney or a surrogate.

Wouldn't Perry have the most to gain from this? And the fact that it didn't work makes it look even more like a Perry plan.

And I don't think the far right has that much trouble blaming the liberal media and Romney in the same breath.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

Doesn't everyone have to read that in high school?

I can assure that's not the case. I definitely didn't have to (class of '84) nor do I believe it's on my son's reading list at any point in high school (not that I've noticed anyway).

Going back as far as 1990, it was not on the top 10 works for high schoolers
Book-Length Works Taught in High School English Courses. ERIC Digest.

Now it's even less likely to appear, as its ilk are being replaced by more contemporary works, as noted in this article from the [i]CSM[i] back in 2007

For the most part, reading lists are still heavy on classics. But consider the differences between reading lists from the 1960s and those in the 1980s. Of the nine most commonly taught books in public high schools in 1963, only one (the 1938 play "Our Town") was written in the 20th century. By 1988, the 10 most commonly taught novels in public schools included four books from the 20th century: "The Great Gatsby" (1925), "Of Mice and Men" (1937), "Lord of the Flies" (1954), and "To Kill a Mockingbird" (1960).

But not all novels take a generation to catapult to required summer reading lists. Some new staples in summer reading lists: "Life of Pi" by Yann Martel, "The Kite Runner" by Khaled Hosseini, "Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time," by Mark Haddon, "Monster" by Walter Dean Myer, and "The Lovely Bones" by Alice Sebold.

I quote that since my own son's required reading will include at least 2 of those (Pi and Kite Runner) and has already knocked out a couple of the classics like Lord and Mockingbird in 7th & 8th grade.

[RainMaker]

Liberal media is blamed for everything. But it is funny seeing the race card played so heavily by people who decry it.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I can assure that's not the case. I definitely didn't have to (class of '84)

Nor did I ('91).

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by panerd

Why? Because he's a Republican? Because he's black? Because he's stupid? Just clarifying on what would cause you to believe that he doesn't read.

The last of those. Nothing in his actions suggests a guy who has any depth whatsoever. He's unprepared, he's proud of his ignorance, and revels in the same victimization that he mocks.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Nor did I ('91).

Dola, nor did I, class of 2000.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Liberal media is blamed for everything. But it is funny seeing the race card played so heavily by people who decry it.

Damned if I've been able to figure out some of the "they're just doing this because he's black" stuff I've seen.

Because he's the GOP front-runner I have no problem buying. Maybe a tangent to that is that a black GOP front-runner is considered a bigger threat I might buy, but that's a tangent at best.

One of the dumber things I've seen this week was along the lines of "Would the media have pushed this if Cain was white?" ... umm, duh, of course they would have (as long as he was an (R) anyway).

[Rizon]

Now the AP is reporting a 3rd sexual harassment against Cain (heard it on the radio at lunch).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

One of the dumber things I've seen this week was along the lines of "Would the media have pushed this if Cain was white?" ... umm, duh, of course they would have (as long as he was an (R) anyway).

Were Clinton and Edwards Republicans?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Rizon

Now the AP is reporting a 3rd sexual harassment against Cain (heard it on the radio at lunch).

Meh, now he's even with Clinton. Hurry up and elect him.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Were Clinton and Edwards Republicans?

I agree with Clinton but not with Edwards at all. The mainstream press stayed far away from that story for a long time. (including Fox news) They didn't like it that one of their own didn't break the story.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Were Clinton and Edwards Republicans?

Yeah...I'm of the opinion that its more along the lines of him being from the south than it is anything else. He may be stupid for all I know...but I don't think we see the same fixation on stupid candidates from northern states.

Perhaps because much of the national media is based in the north or DC area, there is an elitism at play that generally sees southerners as less intelligent to start with. Might not be "liberal" media per se but the premise is not uncommon.

I dont know...just a theory anyway.

[ISiddiqui]

Well Gary Hart was a Democrat from Colorado. I wonder if its more of a piling on when someone gets "national". It didn't matter when Cain was just a fringe candidate - but when his poll numbers are this high...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Were Clinton and Edwards Republicans?

Relatively speaking, Clinton at least, was a long damn time ago. Plus, wasn't the attention on Edwards personal life - other than the cost of his haircuts- really after the his politically relevancy was already down? I mean, he ended up on the ticket in'04 & withdrew from the '08 race before most of the allegations about his affairs really drew the attention of a lot of mainstream media (the National Enquirer broke the story in October 2007 though). Even as late as June '08 he was reportedly on the short list of VP possibilities though.

[JPhillips]

If Perry didn't leak it, his team is sure happy about it.

A Republican consultant in Oklahoma who has conducted polling for a Super PAC supporting Rick Perry claims that he personally witnessed Herman Cain harass one of his accusers. And — from what he saw at least — the case is no joke.

“I was the pollster at the National Restaurant Association when Herman Cain was head of it and I was around a couple of times when this happened and anyone who was involved with the NRA at the time, knew that this was gonna come up,” strategist Chris Wilson told local station KTOK in an interview on Wednesday.

According to Wilson, the main incident occurred at a DC-area restaurant and that “everybody was aware of it,” but that for legal reasons he can’t discuss the details. But he added that if Cain’s accuser comes forward — and one of the two woman who reportedly received a settlement has expressed interest in doing just that — her story won’t be pretty. “If she talks about it, I think it’ll be the end of his campaign,” he said.

“It was only a matter of time because so many people were aware of what took place, so many people were aware of her situation, the fact she left—-everybody knew with the campaign that this would eventually come up,” Wilson said.

Wilson’s firm, WPA Research, has conducted polling on behalf of Make Us Great Again, a Super PAC founded by Perry’s former chief of staff Mike Toomey that’s running ads in support of the Texas governor.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If Perry didn't leak it, his team is sure happy about it.

Since I seem to have about as much chance of winning the nomination as Perry does at this point, I wonder if they're shooting for Romney-Perry '12?

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Since I seem to have about as much chance of winning the nomination as Perry does at this point, I wonder if they're shooting for Romney-Perry '12?

That would shock me - Perry just flat out dislikes Romney, as that previous debate showed, and the feeling is mutual.

And you're really that skeptical about Perry? A polling cycle that shows Romney has a 25% ceiling in the GOP primary, where the GOP has run into not-romney's ranging from DONALD TRUMP! to Herman Cain, you think Perry's Texas cash won't keep him around long enough to at least have a shot?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Alabama radio host, citing unnamed sources close to Palin, says she's "reconsidering" POTUS race. Dr. Gina Loudon & Lee Davis chat about Sarah Palin possibly “reconsidering” « RuBegonia

538 on Twitter

[Crapshoot]

Nah, Palin is not coming back in. The fact that she would get her ass kicked again (in the GOP primary) means that all those lucrative offers of her as a "conservative" champion would dry up.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Relatively speaking, Clinton at least, was a long damn time ago. Plus, wasn't the attention on Edwards personal life - other than the cost of his haircuts- really after the his politically relevancy was already down? I mean, he ended up on the ticket in'04 & withdrew from the '08 race before most of the allegations about his affairs really drew the attention of a lot of mainstream media (the National Enquirer broke the story in October 2007 though). Even as late as June '08 he was reportedly on the short list of VP possibilities though.

Also, I'm pretty sure the sexual allegations against Bill Clinton were levelled after his second term began.

John Edwards dropped out of the '08 race in January and didn't really face media scrutiny until, like...August? I think after the DNC convention had already taken place.

This really is more akin to Clarence Thomas than to Bill Clinton, in that this stuff is coming to light while the candidate is still seeking his position. The allegations against Clinton may or may not have long-term ramifications for his legacy (whatever you consider that to be).

This is...a little different. Depending on how seriously the GOP electorate takes these charges, and how much verity is involved, it could impact Cain's political career. His best shot is for the Tea Party folk to ride the 'lamestream media' dismissal train and dominate turnout at the primaries/caucuses. I mean, that was always his path to the nomination anyway, but that base is going to be significantly more likely to overlook what they'll see as the press trying to destroy their man than the more moderate elements of the electorate would be.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Also, I'm pretty sure the sexual allegations against Bill Clinton were levelled after his second term began.

The impeachment was in December 1998 shortly before Christmas, so you're probably right there.

[Off Thread Topic] It's funny how some events in history are forever linked to significant life events. I will always know the timing of the impeachment without needing to look it up because it was the first Christmas of my marriage and we were spending Christmas with my wife's family, so we went to Columbus to see my family a weekend or two before Christmas. My dad ended up getting an infection and spending most of the time we were there in the hospital. I specifically recall watching the impeachment vote from his hospital room, and it's an indelible memory because it ended up being the last time I saw him. (He died fairly suddenly in January '99, early on the morning of the Falcons' Super Bowl appearance. Ol' Eugene's, um, "indiscretion" hit the radio news that morning while I was driving home.) [/Off Thread Topic]

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Also, I'm pretty sure the sexual allegations against Bill Clinton were levelled after his second term began.

If you're talking pure harrassment, maybe. But Gennifer Flowers was during the election, and the general take on Clinton was that he was a sleazebag (ie no specific allegations but certainly assumptions).

[Ben E Lou]

And I tend to agree with Jon on this point: IF Cain can successfully spin this as being some minor incident that happened a long time ago being brought up by the "establishment" politicians and kept in the headlines by the "establishment" media, it will be a win for him, at least in terms of the primaries.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

If you're talking pure harrassment, maybe. But Gennifer Flowers was during the election, and the general take on Clinton was that he was a sleazebag (ie no specific allegations but certainly assumptions).

This. The famous Barbara Walters interview with the Clintons was before the 1992 election.

[Ben E Lou]

I do find the comments about Cain being unintelligent as rather, um, unintelligent. Dude is a math/computers geek at his core, and pretty darned good at it. Cain is clearly ignorant on some matters, but he's no dummy. He's a smart guy--probably not as smart as Newt, but he's a long way from being Perry.

Last thought for now: part of me still thinks Cain's run is nothing more than a smart business move. He'll sell books, command fat speaking fees, perhaps get a much fatter talk show deal, and maybe be a go-to commentator for Fox when this is all said and done. His national recognition is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy up from what it was 9 months ago.

[stevew]

I need to see pix of any of these 3 women. Im guessing these chicks weren't 9/9/9 out of 10 in the looks department.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I do find the comments about Cain being unintelligent as rather, um, unintelligent. Dude is a math/computers geek at his core, and pretty darned good at it. Cain is clearly ignorant on some matters, but he's no dummy. He's a smart guy--probably not as smart as Newt, but he's a long way from being Perry.

Last thought for now: part of me still thinks Cain's run is nothing more than a smart business move. He'll sell books, command fat speaking fees, perhaps get a much fatter talk show deal, and maybe be a go-to commentator for Fox when this is all said and done. His national recognition is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy up from what it was 9 months ago.

I think he's just as shocked as anyone else that he's actually a frontrunner.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

This. The famous Barbara Walters interview with the Clinton's was before the 1992 election.

"Famous." I'm not sure I'd use that word. I wonder if it's as simple as the media ramping up its interest in the "sleaze factor" as the 90s progressed, but I strongly suspect that "Monica Lewisky" and "Paula Jones" are far more well known names than "Gennifer Flowers." I paid attention to the '92 election, but if pressed, I don't think I could have called Flowers by name.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think he's just as shocked as anyone else that he's actually a frontrunner.

Methinks you are grossly misunderestimating the ego of the average CEO. A guy like Cain doesn't run unless he thinks he can make a splash.