WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[hoopsguy]

OK, lets see if tomorrow goes a little better. I'm mildly surprised there were not deadline antics.

[Barkeep49]

I have:
Hoopsguy – Schmidty (575), Tyrith (696), Hoops (704), Jackal (728)
Tyrith – Pass (698), Chief Rum (758), path (780)
Jackal – Sndvls (701), Hoops (706), Mr. W (709), clap (743)
Chief Rum – Daddy T(763)

Anyone have a correction?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

my problem becasue of the timming... i need to put in a conditional scan NOW or in the next 15 min... because there are about 9 hours a day i am not on the interweb (lame i know) and they are the night in this game...

Why are you certain you won the scan? Did I miss something?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lol...

meh same dif...

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think it's interesting that there was nothing amiss at the deadline. I don't know if there's anything we can take from that.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Why are you certain you won the scan? Did I miss something?

not sure... but gotta be prepared in case i do!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Why are you certain you won the scan? Did I miss something?

I don't know that he is certain. He did mention a conditional order, after all.

[claphamsa]

who is around?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I need to go do dinner prep, but I'll check back in after another fifteen minutes or so.

[claphamsa]

its 10 PM? man you people habe some wierd jobs :P

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, lets see if tomorrow goes a little better. I'm mildly surprised there were not deadline antics.

Me too.

[hoopsguy]

Clap, if you scan me you'll find I'm a member of the Rich (barring a conversion this evening prior to your scan).

MrW should have the most money in the game among the Rich, if he is a good guy. As far as I know, he has not won a service, nor did the person that gave him money. Probably makes sense to look at him.

Alan is a guy that I think you want to know where he stands - good ally, bad guy I would like to see removed from the map.

And I'm suspicious of Passacaglia of orchestrating today with nominating Tyrith.

So, this time I've supplied a list instead of one name. I guess I would ask that if you do pick someone I suggest, that you don't automatically vote me if they end up dead. That kind of sucked.

[Barkeep49]

While calls and influence was peddled madly there simply wasn't any consensus about who should go and so no one faces that oh so awful fate of bankruptcy.

Sadly, people don't seem interested in services today as only two received any bids. The winning bids were:
35002 for the Thief
38500 for the Private Investigator.

Night PMs to be a bit as I need to calculate everything.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Clap, if you scan me you'll find I'm a member of the Rich (barring a conversion this evening prior to your scan).

MrW should have the most money in the game among the Rich, if he is a good guy. As far as I know, he has not won a service, nor did the person that gave him money. Probably makes sense to look at him.

Alan is a guy that I think you want to know where he stands - good ally, bad guy I would like to see removed from the map.

And I'm suspicious of Passacaglia of orchestrating today with nominating Tyrith.

So, this time I've supplied a list instead of one name. I guess I would ask that if you do pick someone I suggest, that you don't automatically vote me if they end up dead. That kind of sucked.

well i hope i win... cuz we need some help!

[claphamsa]

[claphamsa]

someone has more $$$ than me

night all!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Heeeenteresting.

[Barkeep49]

Oh dear. The auction house has made a mistake. A terrible, terrible mistake. It must now revise some of the bids:

The bodyguard went for 12500
And the Thief went for 40002

I got some last minute bids and didn't refresh my inbox before posting.

[hoopsguy]

Thief is now in play, which means that someone can be robbed at some point. I figure that people ought to make informed decisions tonight, and every night going forward.

On hand - Thief could choose to rob from here, FOB can't see it, but Cutthroats get this money by virtue of night kill

Bank - FOB sees it, Thief can choose to rob from here

CD - you can't spend it during day, can't give it away if up for bankrupcy, but it gains interest


Since the Thief only works one time, and is not bound to any given night, I think that CD/Bank are the better way to go for most of the Rich. I may or may not follow my own advice.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Thief is now in play, which means that someone can be robbed at some point. I figure that people ought to make informed decisions tonight, and every night going forward.

On hand - Thief could choose to rob from here, FOB can't see it, but Cutthroats get this money by virtue of night kill

Bank - FOB sees it, Thief can choose to rob from here

CD - you can't spend it during day, can't give it away if up for bankrupcy, but it gains interest


Since the Thief only works one time, and is not bound to any given night, I think that CD/Bank are the better way to go for most of the Rich. I may or may not follow my own advice.

Just to add to this, it looks like no one bid on the FOB.

[The Jackal]

Well, I think that's the best thing that could have happened, really. Sorry I wasn't posting more before the deadline, i got caught up in some things. I don't have any reason to suspect you hoops, I imagine there's a good chance we're both nice rich folks caught in a scrum. Plus, we get a little more money from our votes. What would people recommend about keeping money on hand/in the bank? Even split, what? Whatever's advantageous to us, I'd like to do.

[Barkeep49]

I love the word scrum. That is all.

[Tyrith]

*smacks head into the table repeatedly*

Why why why why WHY!

We are absolutely NOWHERE right now! At least if we kill hoops we have some information, even if it would be bad for ME! And if we kill jackal and get lucky we have SOMETHING! The money can live after the player, but if we don't barbecue some wolves soon we're not going to be able to establish a long term plan. As in most games a no lynch is the absolute worst case scenario. And for the second day in a row, this time much worse than the first, I don't like what path did. Jeez, this is very very very lame.

[Chief Rum]

Did hoops not move money anywhere? I thought he was going to do that if he was going to get lynched (and he has definitely been on the block).

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, no lynch is so optimal for this game compared to lynching villagers.

No lynch puts more pressure on the wolves when villagers get another 15K every day just by virtue of voting.

No lynch equals money staying in game. A villager up for lynch - I know this all too clearly after today - can't gift away their CD money. It is lost from the game.

More alive villagers = better chance of putting this game away at end of Day 4.

I'm all for breaking a few eggs most games, but I thought that this made a good amount of sense today. And, considering that I could have sniped either you or Jackal today, I think you have to take me at my word that I believe what I'm typing here.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Did hoops not move money anywhere? I thought he was going to do that if he was going to get lynched (and he has definitely been on the block).

Nope, I was never a clear-cut lynch so I kept it around in case I needed to save myself with an extra vote or three. Had I been down 5-1 or something like that I would have liquidated everything but my untouchable CDs.

[hoopsguy]

I was planning on calling it a night, but will stick around for 10-15 minutes of discussion if people want to do so.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, no lynch is so optimal for this game compared to lynching villagers.

No lynch puts more pressure on the wolves when villagers get another 15K every day just by virtue of voting.

No lynch equals money staying in game. A villager up for lynch - I know this all too clearly after today - can't gift away their CD money. It is lost from the game.

More alive villagers = better chance of putting this game away at end of Day 4.

I'm all for breaking a few eggs most games, but I thought that this made a good amount of sense today. And, considering that I could have sniped either you or Jackal today, I think you have to take me at my word that I believe what I'm typing here.

And damnit, you're right. And I hate it. But if you were bad you had no reason to not off me at 859 and trade your life for mine as a delaying tactic. But this puts a freaking lot of the eggs in the basket of winning day 5. And honestly, if we win this game day 5 without killing a wolf, blocking a kill, spending three days not getting a freaking seer scan, and spending a lot of money on services, the game's rule system is borked. So I'm not really counting on that possibility.

[Barkeep49]

I need to make a rules clarification. To end the game 60% of players must vote to end it in the same cycle. This was always my intent. I don't think it changes strategies too severely.

[Tyrith]

Hoops, what do you think about the people taht were around at the lynch today and didn't vote? By your logic I'm inclined to trust them a pretty fair amount.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I guess the question is how much money are the bad guy accumulating? How much are they spending on services? How much cash did they start with? How many people did they start with?

Agree that there are a lot of variables to work through. I don't rule out the rule system being "borked" either ... it can happen with a different style of game.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, I guess the question is how much money are the bad guy accumulating? How much are they spending on services? How much cash did they start with? How many people did they start with?

Agree that there are a lot of variables to work through. I don't rule out the rule system being "borked" either ... it can happen with a different style of game.

yeah, it's possible. But I'd like to assume that it's not and play like it...winning a busted game in a busted way really doesn't show anything, test us any, or provide that much fun. In a normal WW game we'd be way behind right now.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I've been thinking about that very topic. And after being cynical about Alan and his "block PM" thing all day long I got the feeling that the wolves were very risk-adverse at the end. Not being able to communicate seems like a pretty good reason for that caution. Even if they thought they might not be able to PM, I doubt they had a discussion in advance about a tie. So I think that is enough for me to nudge Alan back to neutral for now.

Other option is that one of other two people in the tie (you and Jackal) were a Cutthroat and they were worried I would snipe if provoked. I consider this a little less likely, but still a possibility.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i'm not one to seize on RL as a reason to vote someone, but alan just gave 2 different excuses as reasons for why he's leaving the thread till after deadline. Just thought i'd point that out...*shrugs*

Actually I updated my reason for not being away. Even in games when I have been a wolf, I don't ever lie about RL stuff. If you don't believe me then go here to see I'm not making it up: http://www.bb-bbcf.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=138 (and while there sign up to join our league!)

Anyhows, if you think I forced an entire league to wait two hours for a sim just to try to fool you in a werewolf game.. then well I don't know how to respond, just vote me I guess.

Anyways, we're having issues with one of our major FTP sites and it appears that I will be on and off the phone all evening and pulling an all nighter. Trying to catch up here when I can in the meanwhile.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Can I ask -- why Tyrith?

He had votes on him, and I was OK with leaving Jackal and hoops tied at that point. No other reason. I actually don't have much suspicion of Tyrith at all.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

And for the second day in a row, this time much worse than the first, I don't like what path did.

I can understand if you don't like me leaving the tie. We can disagree on whether that was the best approach or not (and I'm not sure that it was), but what was your problem with me the day before?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Actually I updated my reason for not being away. Even in games when I have been a wolf, I don't ever lie about RL stuff. If you don't believe me then go here to see I'm not making it up: http://www.bb-bbcf.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=138 (and while there sign up to join our league!)

Anyhows, if you think I forced an entire league to wait two hours for a sim just to try to fool you in a werewolf game.. then well I don't know how to respond, just vote me I guess.

Anyways, we're having issues with one of our major FTP sites and it appears that I will be on and off the phone all evening and pulling an all nighter. Trying to catch up here when I can in the meanwhile.

hope you know I wasn't trying to be a dick. just...grasping at straws really

[RendeR]

Arg, work interferes with my vote yet again. Sorry guys...

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

*smacks head into the table repeatedly*

Why why why why WHY!

We are absolutely NOWHERE right now! At least if we kill hoops we have some information, even if it would be bad for ME! And if we kill jackal and get lucky we have SOMETHING! The money can live after the player, but if we don't barbecue some wolves soon we're not going to be able to establish a long term plan. As in most games a no lynch is the absolute worst case scenario. And for the second day in a row, this time much worse than the first, I don't like what path did. Jeez, this is very very very lame.

I agree, we need to get some wolves, but lynching innocent rich folks, especially when we still probably don't know if our beneficiaries are trustworthy or not - it's not the best course of action. I'm willing to look at hoops more seriously tomorrow, though, if people truly believe him to be a cutthroat.

[The Jackal]

Just a warning, I won't be able to check the forums at work tomorrow, and I'm probably seeing a couple of buddies from out of town at night, so there may be a window in the afternoon when i can log on but I'll be away for most of the rest of it, don't think I'm ignoring any questions or gameplay.

[Alan T]

Barkeep, what is the plan for weekend play? It is appearing that I'm going to have a hectic day tommorrow, and my sister and her family arrive from canada tommorrow evening. I should be able to check in at some point during the day tommorrow, but this weekend I won't be on a ton.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I've been debating whether I should reveal this, and I think I will go ahead and do so lest I be killed in the night leaving the rest of you all wondering.

I'm the one who won the services of the thief, so if I should be killed, you won't need to worry about your bank account being emptied by the cutthroats — as I prefer to keep my non-invested money in the bank rather than on-hand, I thought it was extremely important that the cutthroats not get his services cheaply.

As of this writing I am not a cutthroat, but obviously that may not hold forever, so I cannot guarantee that the thief will remain "friendly".

[claphamsa]

who u gonna rob?

[Barkeep49]

You learned today that path was killed. It seems that he was walking and he strayed from the sidewalk. He had been warned never to stray off... the sidewalk and that was when the cutthroats did him in. At the reading of his will you learn that Pass stands to inherit his money.

Today's services up for bid are:
Friend at the Bank: Learn amounts all players have in the bank
Wiretapper: Receives 20% of all money from successful auction bids on Days 4 & 5.
Notary Public: May change the beneficiary on another player’s will (without their knowledge). Must be used by Night 6.
Financial Analyst: Will learn the total money of 1 player. Must be used night 4.


Weekend Plan is to have a normal day today. Have night actions due sometime Sunday morning, most likely around 10 or so, and then have an extended Day 5. If you won't be around anytime between Friday night and Sunday morning I will be happy to accept conditional orders today.

[Chief Rum]

Being that tonight is Friday night, there is a good chance that after work I will not be around before deadline. So I have to vote now.

I think it's been difficult so far for us to pinpoint wolves and we really need people to come out with services they won after the fact. Mr. Wednesday coming out with the Thief for instance--that makes me feel better about him (even though he still could be a wolf). It's galling to me that no seer has stepped forward. Hopefully today will be different.

I won the bodyguard service last night. I protected myself and no one disturbed me. I considered using protection for another veteran, but I didn't feel I could pick out which one should be protected (yes, path would have been a choice). I felt I was as good a potential target as anyone, so I protected myself.

Since we don't have much to go on, I must fall back on UTR play for now (unfortunately).

VOTE RENDER

[Alan T]

I had a hell of a night, only got 2 hours of sleep and today looks pretty brutal workwise because of this issue I have. I'll pop in and out during the day to see what people have to say about various things.

After thinking things through a bit, I don't have much interest in pushing Hoopsguy for a lynch any longer. I don't necessarily have a direction yet figured out how I want to go today though. Schmidty came out hardest pushing for Hoops yesterday, but his play was classic Schmidty, I didn't really feel much of a diversion from his normal line of play. Passacaglia seemed to push a bit on Sndvls first which didn't get alot of traction and then changed to Tyrith which was a bit odd to me, so I might look that way. The Jackal got alot of heat mostly for not being around which I'm not sure at this point is the best time to try to snipe UtR players or not...

The only other two really pinging me right now are Render who missed two votes even though he was around in the thread.. Perhaps I should go back and look at those votes to see if his missing the vote could have played an impact on who was lynched in a different way to help the cutthroats.. My fundamental thinking though is the money is very important to the cutthroats, so I can't imagine them missing one or even two votes on purpose and losing 30k that way.. Chief Rum came out really quick for Render despite it seems unlikely that a wolf would have missed votes.. And Chief was pushing hard for Hoops for a few days, I might go back his direction too..

Either way, I don't plan on voting Hoopsguy today.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Being that tonight is Friday night, there is a good chance that after work I will not be around before deadline. So I have to vote now.

I think it's been difficult so far for us to pinpoint wolves and we really need people to come out with services they won after the fact. Mr. Wednesday coming out with the Thief for instance--that makes me feel better about him (even though he still could be a wolf). It's galling to me that no seer has stepped forward. Hopefully today will be different.

I won the bodyguard service last night. I protected myself and no one disturbed me. I considered using protection for another veteran, but I didn't feel I could pick out which one should be protected (yes, path would have been a choice). I felt I was as good a potential target as anyone, so I protected myself.

Since we don't have much to go on, I must fall back on UTR play for now (unfortunately).

VOTE RENDER

DUDE!!! wtf? =)

[RendeR]

I'm going to put my vote in NOW so I don't miss it again.

Completely retaliatory =)

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Being that tonight is Friday night, there is a good chance that after work I will not be around before deadline. So I have to vote now.

I think it's been difficult so far for us to pinpoint wolves and we really need people to come out with services they won after the fact. Mr. Wednesday coming out with the Thief for instance--that makes me feel better about him (even though he still could be a wolf). It's galling to me that no seer has stepped forward. Hopefully today will be different.

I won the bodyguard service last night. I protected myself and no one disturbed me. I considered using protection for another veteran, but I didn't feel I could pick out which one should be protected (yes, path would have been a choice). I felt I was as good a potential target as anyone, so I protected myself.

Since we don't have much to go on, I must fall back on UTR play for now (unfortunately).

VOTE RENDER

Another thing that is buggging me about Chief Rum is here he says that hopefully today whoever got the seer service will step forward. Technically he says so far no seer has stepped forward but hopefully today that will be different. Why would you want the seer to come forward today? Whomever won the Private Investigator last night has it for last night and tonight.. Why would they out themselves today with no bodyguard to bid on today?

[hoopsguy]

OK, we've seen a kill every night up to this point. Does anyone think that there hasn't been at least one bribe by now? Going into last night both MrW and I - assuming we did not purchase services - should have had over 100K already. The rest of the Rich will be there in another day. This is the threshhold where it is financially correct for the Cutthroats to blackmail solely for economic reasons, to say nothing of secondary benefits of growing their ranks, having more vote influence, delaying end game, etc.

Do other people think that should enter into our line of thinking for today? I know that I'm still among the Rich - I haven't received an offer to accept/refuse - but I would say that this morning no matter what side I was on, right? And if we are bringing this into the discussion, how does it matter? If we don't have a seer scan to discuss (and I agree with Alan, although I had not caught that detail as I was a little bit distracted yesterday) then do we try to anticipate who would be bribe targets?

I'm really struggling to find the right context to view information in this game. I don't think that the structure of the game is the main reason for this - maybe a contributing factor in terms of voting patterns - but the lack of a Cutthroat lynch and publicly disclosed services makes this one a challenge so far.