POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by wustin

Kasich, Jeb, and Rubio sure fared well against this year's two non-establishment candidates.

The tea party would really have to the move the goalposts to claim a win with Trump.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Every time Rainmaker says the liberal media isn't covering a story, I turn on the TV or go to a news website to see them covering exactly that story.

When the story broke on the 22nd, almost no one was covering it. Even Wikileaks made a joke about CNN and CBS having it nowhere on their site at the time.

WikiLeaks on Twitter: "Broadcasters so far implicanted in #DNCLeaks: MSNBC, CBS
Broadcasters so far not covering #DNCLeaks: MSNBC, CBS"

The only reason it's gotten more publicity now is that Wasserman-Shultz stepped down after immense pressure from Sanders supporters.

And even now the story has been spun to be about a dumb conspiracy theory that Russia has masterminded the whole thing.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The tea party would really have to the move the goalposts to claim a win with Trump.

I will absolutely promise you that there is an enormous crossover between those who would have been called "supportive of the tea party movement" in some poll and those who are most enthusiastically backing Trump now. Yuge crossover.

That goes back to the whole "Tea Party" (as an even loosely organized entity) vs "tea party" as more of a label for a concept. The latter was always a much larger number than the former.

[Ben E Lou]

CNN/ORC Poll just released.


Trump 44%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

[Ben E Lou]

I know, I know. "CONVENTION BOUNCE!!!!!1"

But from THAT dumpster fire of a convention????

[Ben E Lou]

More details are coming out of that poll. 68% of those polled said HRC is not honest and trustworthy. The CNN commentator was just asked by Cuomo "have we EVER seen numbers that high for untrustworthy???" He quipped "Sure. August of 1974!"

[Coffee Warlord]

Wait, 32% of people believes she IS honest and trustworthy?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Wait, 32% of people believes she IS honest and trustworthy?

[wustin]

Log In - The New York Times

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Wait, 32% of people believes she IS honest and trustworthy?

Kool-aid drinkers

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou;:popcorn: 3111272

CNN/ORC Poll just released.


Trump 44%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

I was naive enough to take #NeverTrump GOPers at their word when they said they didn't want him to be president.

I now realize (should have been obvious) that as soon as it became D v R, they would do everything in their power to make him president.

[JonInMiddleGA]

On Facebook, I cautioned days ago about anyone taking any poll too seriously over the next month. Convention bumps are a common thing, historically most of them balance themselves out. A solid performance at the RNC gets back a few people who were claiming "oh I'll just vote for Hilary". Then the DNC delivers some of the Bernie-ites back to HRC.

{shrug}

[JPhillips]

And nothing matters that much until after Labor Day.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Still, just for fun, look a little deeper at the results to see what happened.

Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

So Trump goes +15 with independents while Hillary goes -6, Johnson -7 ... and Stein -6? The unaccounted for portion (other candidates? undecided?) more than doubles, going from 3% to now 7%.

[Brian Swartz]

I like how the poll showed an even split between those who say it made them more/less likely to vote Trump ... and then resulted in a significant shift toward Trump regardless. Reminds of a West Wing episode where Toby wants to talk to the 15%(or some such figure) of people who stated both that they thought spending on foreign aid was too high, yet at the same time didn't want it cut

[JPhillips]

Most polls have a higher number of Trump supporters than of people that think he's qualified to be president.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I like how the poll showed an even split between those who say it made them more/less likely to vote Trump ... and then resulted in a significant shift toward Trump regardless.

I did a doubletake on that initially & then I figured it out.

The "less likely" were the crowd that figured "okay, -1 is less than 0, so ... ".
The more likely included some that crossed from probably not to okay yeah I guess.

After reading it a couple of times I realized that the numbers looked funny but could actually have a simple explanation.

[JonInMiddleGA]

fwiw, LA Times and Morning Consult polls also now show Trump in the lead, but smaller convention bumps of about 3% (I think LA Times actually had him leading in the poll previous, same margin, just with fewer undecided or 3rd party leans)

[Ben E Lou]

CNN is saying that the Trump bump is the largest since 2000--when both of them had 8-point convention bumps.

[Ben E Lou]

Dola:

I guess what I'm saying is that with the extremely high visibility of these two candidates, I'm surprised that there's any significant bump. Trump and Clinton are who they are. America "knows" them. They're not going to reinvent themselves in four days.

[JPhillips]

But there are a lot of undecided and third party responders. Those people will likely flip around several times.

[JPhillips]

Great to see progressives make it clear that Bernie isn't pure enough for Bernie supporters.

[tarcone]

Bernies revolution was a farce. Otherwise, he would continue on with it. 74 years old with little left in life to accomplish and he shows no stones. He bitched for a year about the system being rigged. Finds out its true and rolls over and will endorse HRC.

What a puss.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But there are a lot of undecided and third party responders. Those people will likely flip around several times.

See though, that's one of the things that makes me wonder how much of the bump is real.

On paper, it looks like CNN suggested that some voters flipped, post-convention, from Stein to Trump? Okay, would someone care to introduce me to a few of those folks, 'cause that's a variant I don't know that I've ever encountered in the wild.

I mean, it's not as though the convention suddenly gave a soft supporter of Stein some new revelations that leaned them into Trump's camp.

Now, I suppose, there IS a longer sequence that could account for the math.
That would go with more voters switching from Clinton-->Trump than HRC's net loss, then voters moving from Stein-->Clinton making up for some of HRC's losses (cause, maybe, those Stein voters decided he was a more viable threat & they shifted to Nevertrump & figured Hillary was the best option)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

CNN is saying that the Trump bump is the largest since 2000--when both of them had 8-point convention bumps.

The L.A. Times version of the new poll & new story (re: their poll, not CNN's) noted something that I referenced earlier: the last post-convention bump of size that actually stuck was Clinton 1992.

[OldGiants]

My hope is that Tim Kaine becomes President a LOT sooner than Hilary and the DNC is planning on.

The day after the inauguration would not be too soon.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by OldGiants

My hope is that Tim Kaine becomes President a LOT sooner than Hilary and the DNC is planning on.

The day after the inauguration would not be too soon.

and that, imo, would be the best scenario, assuming Congress stays Republican.

I actually would not be surprised if health issues derail Clinton and/or Trump.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

I actually would not be surprised if health issues derail Clinton and/or Trump.

Lead Poisoning?

I kid...

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Bernies revolution was a farce. Otherwise, he would continue on with it. 74 years old with little left in life to accomplish and he shows no stones. He bitched for a year about the system being rigged. Finds out its true and rolls over and will endorse HRC.

What a puss.

Or he thinks getting half done is better than a Trump presidency.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Or he thinks getting half done is better than a Trump presidency.

Exactly. A Trump presidency would be the worst thing that could happen for the progressive movement.

Bernie hasn't just suddenly sold out. He actually understands what needs to happen in order to keep the progressive ideas moving forward.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Bernies revolution was a farce. Otherwise, he would continue on with it. 74 years old with little left in life to accomplish and he shows no stones. He bitched for a year about the system being rigged. Finds out its true and rolls over and will endorse HRC.

What a puss.

Maybe he doesn't want Trump to be President?

[JPhillips]

Kasich is a pussy for not closing the convention in Cleveland.

Bush is a pussy for not fighting Trump.

Christie is a pussy for
well, Christie is a pussy.

[wustin]

Apparently DNC built a nice blue wall to keep out people with dissenting opinions.

Also they were taking away Bernie signs threatening to revoke credentials.

[albionmoonlight]

I agree that, in general, pre-convention polls are not that meaningful.

But my whole theory of the election was that a large section of the public does not find Trump acceptable and would never agree to vote for him.

That is demonstrably not true. It's a real race.

[wustin]

PHOTOS: DNC erects four-mile eight-foot tall fence around Philly convention site - The American MirrorThe American Mirror

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by wustin

Apparently DNC built a nice blue wall to keep out people with dissenting opinions.

Also they were taking away Bernie signs threatening to revoke credentials.

Good. Those people are being stupid. They worked so hard to get their liberal platform and rather than work to get it implemented with Hillary they'd rather see none of it get done with Trump? Makes no sense.

[JPhillips]

The city of Cleveland has drawn a 3.3 square mile zone around the site of the Republican National Convention, banishing any public gatherings in that area.

I imagine you're faux outraged at this as well.

[tarcone]

You are happy that there was a wall built and voices were quieted? Really?

Think like us or shut the f*ck up.

[tarcone]

Yep. And you guys wonder why Trump has a shot. Its elitist crap from both sides that are pissing off the little guy. Trump has spoken to them. He has pushed the right buttons.

Why did the RNC have a 3.3 sq mile no gathering zone? And the DNC build s a wall.

Stupid.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I imagine you're faux outraged at this as well.

Both conventions can and should be mocked. Just because I'm mocking the DNC doesn't mean the RNC shouldn't of been criticized and made fun of as well (which it has).

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tarcone

You are happy that there was a wall built and voices were quieted? Really?

Think like us or shut the f*ck up.

Welcome to the fight. I've been bitching about free speech zones since the Bush years.

The issue here, though, is an outrage when one side does it, but apathy when a different side does the exact same thing.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Yep. And you guys wonder why Trump has a shot. Its elitist crap from both sides that are pissing off the little guy. Trump has spoken to them. He has pushed the right buttons.

Why did the RNC have a 3.3 sq mile no gathering zone? And the DNC build s a wall.

Stupid.

You do realize that Trump's team agreed to the wall in Cleveland, right?

[wustin]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Good. Those people are being stupid. They worked so hard to get their liberal platform and rather than work to get it implemented with Hillary they'd rather see none of it get done with Trump? Makes no sense.

I've said this before about Bernie supporters, it's not about republicans vs democrats anymore. Perhaps the older (and more conservative) democrats see it that way but that's not how millenials see it.

[albionmoonlight]

The conventions are made for TV events in which the parties try to make the case for why their candidates should be elected.

Why in goodness' name would they not do everything in their power to bar protesters and others trying to ruin the show?

If Microsoft is holding a launch event for the new Xbox, should they open up the stage to a bunch of Sony fanboys?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by wustin

I've said this before about Bernie supporters, it's not about republicans vs democrats anymore. Perhaps the older (and more conservative) democrats see it that way but that's not how millenials see it.

are-millennials-lazy-entitled-narcissists

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Yep. And you guys wonder why Trump has a shot. Its elitist crap from both sides that are pissing off the little guy. Trump has spoken to them. He has pushed the right buttons.

Yep, by giving cooperate bailouts and promising huge tax breaks for the rich Trump is speaking to the little man.

Maybe it's his 71% mostly false, false, or pants on fire rating from politifact that speaks to the little man.

Originally Posted by tarcone

And the DNC build s a wall.

A much cheaper wall than Trump's.

[tarcone]

I guess you look at it in one of 2 ways. Give money to corporations or jack up the Federal government. Its sad those are the only 2 choices we get now.

And if you really dont believe that Trump is speaking the little guys language, you need to look around. Go to a rural area. go to a blue collar area. They are sucking up what Trump is feeding them.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

You do realize that Trump's team agreed to the wall in Cleveland, right?

I have no doubt.

[cuervo72]

He may well be speaking that language. I think the feeling by many of us though is that he's selling snake oil.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

He may well be speaking that language. I think the feeling by many of us though is that he's selling snake oil.

And you may be right.

But I think the buyers think they got a raw deal the last 8 years.