Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Well to be fair, if steals happen before kills, it could be a steal and a kill by two different people. I am not going to surmise the likelihood of that.

Back to this point, the likelihood of that is exactly what I calculated. The probability of Vaimes choosing to steal from Chief, who had an item and also was NK'd in the same night, assuming he had no prior knowledge that Chief had an item or was going to be NK'd is precisely 0.9%.

So, either something happened that was 0.9% likely to happen. OR Vaimes did have prior knowledge that Chief had an item, was going to be NK'd, or both.

[Grover]

[Vaimes]

It's totally the 0.9%.

(A friend wanted to get lunch so my response will be delayed.)

[cheekimonk]

How about this:

1) Likelihood that Vaimes does what he did with no knowledge at all: 0.9%
2) Likelihood that Vaimes does what he did with knowledge that Chief was going to be NK'd, but NOT knowledge that Chief had any item...much less the Warder's Cloak (assuming 3 Darks...if it's 4 the probability is even worse): 37.5% (note: that's only the probability of him accidentally snagging an item)
3) Likelihood that Vaimes does what he did with knowledge that Chief was going to be NK'd and knowledge that Chief was the Warder: 100% (obviously...with prior knowledge of all successful outcomes the probability of having a successful outcome is 100%)

[Vaimes]

You arguing probability is very annoying because all I can really say to it is "you're wrong." Like there is literally no arguing against numbers being numbers.

It's a very cheap way to push a lynch, since you're arguing that the more likely outcome must be what happened, which is false.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

It's totally the 0.9%.

(A friend wanted to get lunch so my response will be delayed.)

Fair enough. Then we can base our vote on something 0.9% likely (you're Light and the Dark got very, very, very lucky), or 99.1 likely (you're Dark and had prior knowledge from fellow Darks that Chief, the Warder, was going to be NK'd). I've decided my vote.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

You arguing probability is very annoying because all I can really say to it is "you're wrong." Like there is literally no arguing against numbers being numbers.

It's a very cheap way to push a lynch, since you're arguing that the more likely outcome must be what happened, which is false.

"Luck is statistics taken personally." - Penn Jillette

Numbers can be annoying. I would, however, argue that this is as far from a "cheap" way to push a lynch as possible. I didn't have to sit down and crunch those numbers. But I did, so we have probabilities for you and whatever arguments can be presented today for other candidates.

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

First, why are you deflecting the fact that it was Vaimes who stole from Chief? We know that. And I've demonstrated to everyone the odds that Chief would both have an item AND be NK'd.

Where have I deflected that? I've never claimed he didn't.

[EagleFan]

[path12]

For this to work means that he needed to have two actions at night, or coordinated with another wolf in order to steal, then kill Chief.

Two actions a night seems unbalanced for bad guys who already have advantage by knowing who they are.

Also, this then means that there was some knowledge that Chief was a warder. I may have missed him disclosing that but can't imagine why he would do so. So the wolves have a seer too?

I'm skeptical because we can't afford another Grover. You very well could be right and it is hard to argue against those numbers. I'd love to see some other folks jump in here to see what they think.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Where have I deflected that? I've never claimed he didn't.

I didn't say you claimed he didn't. I said you deflected from that fact:

Originally Posted by path12

Are you saying that only Aiel's can steal? I don't think that is true because if I searched the person who has the Horn I would get it, which is stealing and I am Illian.

Vaimes said he was Aiel and that he stole the Warder's Cloak from Chief. Changing the argument into "other people could have done" what Vaimes already admitted he did is deflecting. It's a standard debate tactic and is used in courtrooms around the world every day: cast doubt on something tangentially related to the facts to lure a long argument that will ultimately cause some to conclude "if there's doubt about that, then there's doubt about the facts" when, of course, there is not.

I gave you the odds of Vaimes, and only Vaimes, doing what he has admitted, and we know, he did. Not an Aiel. Not an Illian. Not any specific item. The probability that Vaimes, specifically, could do, specifically, what he did by luck (lucky for the Dark, of course) is 0.9%.

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

I didn't say you claimed he didn't. I said you deflected from that fact:

Now I don't think of that as a deflection, I think of that as a data point. Because if you search, I search, Vaimes searches (steals, whatever) whether it is once per game or every night the point was that there is a whole lotta searchin'/stealin' possible and SOME of it has to connect. That's all.

[Vaimes]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

How many hands of poker had you played in your life? Now how many games of this particular flavor of WW? I'm very angry that you got so super lucky. So angry, I'm voting that you serve the Dark.

The club meets once a week, and at that point I had been going for a couple months. I tended to either lose really early or make it to like third place before succumbing to defeat. The club leaders tried to educate me on how to play better, but their explanations bored me and I didn't really listen to them.

Well, of this flavor, never. I'm not at all familiar with it. But I am somewhat familiar with semi-open setups.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

For this to work means that he needed to have two actions at night, or coordinated with another wolf in order to steal, then kill Chief.

Two actions a night seems unbalanced for bad guys who already have advantage by knowing who they are.

Also, this then means that there was some knowledge that Chief was a warder. I may have missed him disclosing that but can't imagine why he would do so. So the wolves have a seer too?

First, are you debating whether wolves coordinate their actions (i.e., one steals from the known target - which would happen before the NK - and the wolves then NK Chief)?

Second, sure the bad guys have an advantage. But, assuming Vaimes is Dark, they also have an Aiel who must use his one-time ability in this game or lose it. At worst, they didn't know Chief was the Warder and Vaimes was only using his ability so anything Chief might have been carrying didn't go with him to the grave. Which brings me to...

Lastly, this does NOT mean that there was some knowledge that Chief was the Warder. The 0.9% was calculated based ONLY on Vaimes stealing from someone with an item (ANY item) who was also NK'd in the same night action. He could have known Chief was a warder, but the numbers are bad enough just assuming any item was nabbed.

[path12]

You and I can go around and around here. I'm not saying your theory is wrong, I'm only saying that from my experience lots of weird things can happen in a complicated ruleset and that a small chance is still a chance.

We'll see what happens. But again, I'd love to see what others think. It's pretty clear where we are.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Grover

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Whole lotta zombies eating popcorn around here.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Now I don't think of that as a deflection, I think of that as a data point. Because if you search, I search, Vaimes searches (steals, whatever) whether it is once per game or every night the point was that there is a whole lotta searchin'/stealin' possible and SOME of it has to connect. That's all.

And all of those independent actions have their own probabilities (because of the fact that they are independent). And, because they are independent, I can calculate only the probability that Vaimes did precisely what he actually did: 0.9%. Do you want me to calculate the odds that you could have searched Chief for the Horn on the same night he was NK'd (again, assuming you had no outside knowledge)? I can, but why? That's not what happened. What did, in fact, happen had a 0.9% chance of happening. Leading the discussion into hypotheticals rather than the actual events is, ipso facto, deflecting. The only question is why the deflection is occurring given the party being accused. In a courtroom, it's because the deflector is being paid to deflect. Here? Not sure, but it doesn't make me feel better about you being Light.

[Vaimes]

Some insight on how I came to posses the whatever cloak:

I saw Grover's wagon growing until it basically everyone was voting him except Raven and myself. I saw Chief Rum suddenly vote Zirco, and since I thought he was voting for Grover before, I thought maybe he was jumping off the wagon to avoid being interrogated the next Day, as it's very apparent the majority of the scumteam was on the Grover bandwagon. So I checked him! Which actually really sucks, because it's basically my fault we lost two townies in one Night. And now I'm in this position where cheekimonk is basically arguing that I have to be lynched, which is really bad because it's likely that we either lose if we mislynch toDay or toMorrow, and. Yeah.

I am not new to mafia. I have played many games across four sites over the course of a little over a year. If I were going to steal from the NK target, I would keep that shit to myself. At that point, the only way I could possibly look guilty is if a townie stole from me and saw I had Chief Rum's cloak. Like, seriously.

If I'm going to be lynched, at least do it because I've been really scummy for xyz reasons, and not because a bunch of numbers told you to. You're going to be really embarrassed if you mislynch two townies based on how lucky they were with their roles.

[timmae]

Checking in.. Read up on the action from last night and this morning. Sifting through the back and forth. I lean good on cheeki and his tone seems honest. Not sure what that means for vaimes actions/claims. It does seem possible to have multiple items.

I am yellow ajah and am 100% village. I suspect one of you may have additional seer ability and may have figured that out N1. The other ajah (please confirm my thought that there is exactly 1 of each color ajah) is the blue ajah. I did a reread but did not see any major hints dropped early. Hopefully those that have knowledge of the books ( cheeks, martin and CW I think) can provide insight into what powers the blue ajah has. When we find the blue ajah we will know who our black ajah is. If we have one black ajah and only one of each color then blue is our evil. I protected myself N1, chief N2 and Coffee N3.

I can protect either cheeki or myself tonight. My guess is that the other will be NK'd.

Cheeki, you can pass the item to me to hold or hold onto it. I will protect whomever has the object. I think it is best to keep the wolves guessing as to who may be protected so don't state what you are doing.

I am looking for discussion on how to proceed here as the gameplay options may present other possibilities. I am in and out until lynch time but should be on for sure around lynch.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

I had suspicions of Vaimes. Given the really fortuitous nature of his steal from Chief - it has to be the Warder's Cloak - and that we Aiel can only target one person the entire game as a one-time ability (which amplifies Vaimes luck of snatching an item from Chief the night he is NK'd) I have no choice but to suspect even more that he is Dark. If he is, this could trigger the Dark attempting a counter-run on me (and likely a NK, even though I've burned my ability), but it's down to the nitty-gritty so I have to risk it...

vote Vaimes

I've been thinking about this and Vaimes' story this morning, and I'm really torn. Both Cheeki's and Vaimes' stories are credible, even more credible than Grover's maybe. After sniffing down this trail all night, I'm going to side with Cheeki to get on the board this morning.

vote Vaimes

[Vaimes]

Unvote
Vote: Coffee Warlord

[path12]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

toDay or toMorrow, and. Yeah.

BTW cheekimonk, the capitalizing of letters in the middle of words is where I was wondering about a code.

[Vaimes]

I picked that up from fontisian to distinguish between game Days and IRL days.

[Vaimes]

Given that the Days here are basically the same as regular days, I guess it isn't necessary. Just a force of habit.

[Glengoyne]

Man when you take eight or ten minutes to finish a post, a lot can happen.

I was just about to post that the statues are very powerful weapons in the hands of channelers. They will make them very powerful. But I'm also starting to think that the light vs dark channeler mix is going to be pretty close to 50/50 at this point so anyone laying claim to being an Aes Sedai is likely being truthful, but will also be even money to be a wolf.

The disposition of the statue tonight is going to be big.

[Chief Rum]

I wonder what happened!!

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

the whatever cloak

Really? Part of your attempt to argue innocence is, "Whatever cloak. Some cloak that I stole. I know it gives me powers because it takes two bullets to kill me, but if it's the Warder's Cloak that's a complete surprise to me. I just thought it was pretty. It's not labeled 'Warder's Cloak' anywhere...just a tag that says 'HAND WASH ONLY'."

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Coffee Warlord [2] - Raven (737), Vaimes (821)
Vaimes [2] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820)

[Vaimes]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Really? Part of your attempt to argue innocence is, "Whatever cloak. Some cloak that I stole. I know it gives me powers because it takes two bullets to kill me, but if it's the Warder's Cloak that's a complete surprise to me. I just thought it was pretty. It's not labeled 'Warder's Cloak' anywhere...just a tag that says 'HAND WASH ONLY'."

Now you're just trying to force me into a scummy box hole when I'm clearly triangular.

I just couldn't be bothered to look up the actual name. Warden Cloak? Warden Cloak. There.

[Vaimes]

WARDER'S.

Ugh.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Man when you take eight or ten minutes to finish a post, a lot can happen.

I was just about to post that the statues are very powerful weapons in the hands of channelers. They will make them very powerful. But I'm also starting to think that the light vs dark channeler mix is going to be pretty close to 50/50 at this point so anyone laying claim to being an Aes Sedai is likely being truthful, but will also be even money to be a wolf.

The disposition of the statue tonight is going to be big.

Yep. I know. The only channeler that has come forward thus far is timmae.

[cheekimonk]

It is an option for me to sit on it so as not to take the risk. I'm obviously not going to announce my decision here. I'll have to take everyone's counsel and make my own choice via PM tonight.

[path12]

Originally Posted by timmae

Checking in.. Read up on the action from last night and this morning. Sifting through the back and forth. I lean good on cheeki and his tone seems honest. Not sure what that means for vaimes actions/claims. It does seem possible to have multiple items.

I am yellow ajah and am 100% village. I suspect one of you may have additional seer ability and may have figured that out N1. The other ajah (please confirm my thought that there is exactly 1 of each color ajah) is the blue ajah. I did a reread but did not see any major hints dropped early. Hopefully those that have knowledge of the books ( cheeks, martin and CW I think) can provide insight into what powers the blue ajah has. When we find the blue ajah we will know who our black ajah is. If we have one black ajah and only one of each color then blue is our evil. I protected myself N1, chief N2 and Coffee N3.

I can protect either cheeki or myself tonight. My guess is that the other will be NK'd.

Cheeki, you can pass the item to me to hold or hold onto it. I will protect whomever has the object. I think it is best to keep the wolves guessing as to who may be protected so don't state what you are doing.

I am looking for discussion on how to proceed here as the gameplay options may present other possibilities. I am in and out until lynch time but should be on for sure around lynch.

Something about this reveal smells to me. Not sure what yet.

VOTE TIMMAE

[timmae]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

It is an option for me to sit on it so as not to take the risk. I'm obviously not going to announce my decision here. I'll have to take everyone's counsel and make my own choice via PM tonight.

Correct. If I receive the item my protect will be me. If I don't receive the item I'll protect you. Either way my guess is the item will survive and the other person will be NK'd. Then it is down to 6-2 or 5-3 if we get evil during lynch. 5-3 or 4-4 if we screw up the lynch. It occurs to me that this could be a bad play as you could be evil but not much else to go on at this point.

[Coffee Warlord]

Well, that's a lot of posts since lunch.

[Coffee Warlord]

How the hell do I have two votes? Stop being dumb, Vaimes.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by path12

Something about this reveal smells to me. Not sure what yet.

VOTE TIMMAE

Pretty much zero chance of timmae being a wolf unless someone counter claims this.

Even from the rules description, Yellow Ajah == Bodyguard. No way in hell do they make the bodyguard a wolf.

[Coffee Warlord]

Right now, I'm feeling Zinto, path12, and Vaimes as wolfies.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm going to repost this, since it got zero discussion. I'm also adding extra greens for people who, barring a flat out counter-claim, should not be wolves. (And myself, because I'm just an awesome guy).

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Two people not voting that day sucks ass, I might add. But, since we have a whole one freakin' day to go by, I'm going by that day.

If we believe timmae, the top 4 vote getters are ALL villagers. If we assume a usual wolf spread on day one, some candidates become very clear - Vaimes, Zinto, Path.

I don't know what to make of brit & Narc. They've been awfully quiet, I have no read on either. That said, I cannot believe more than one, MAYBE two wolves were on EF at the end - it's usually better to spread the voting love.

[Vaimes]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

How the hell do I have two votes? Stop being dumb, Vaimes.

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Right now, I'm feeling Zinto, path12, and Vaimes as wolfies.

Nah, I think I'm good.

Why are you singling me out and not mentioning Raven's vote?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Pretty much zero chance of timmae being a wolf unless someone counter claims this.

Even from the rules description, Yellow Ajah == Bodyguard. No way in hell do they make the bodyguard a wolf.

I'm waiting to see if there is a counter and will move if there isn't. But first he asks for help from the Blue Ajah and then later in the same paragraph says that the Blue must be evil and that just struck me weird.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

Nah, I think I'm good.

Why are you singling me out and not mentioning Raven's vote?

Because Raven has been batshit insane and has loved targeting me the whole game.

YOU, however, have every reason in the world to NOT vote me, considering there's far more suspicious people out there - unless you're evil.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I'm going to repost this, since it got zero discussion. I'm also adding extra greens for people who, barring a flat out counter-claim, should not be wolves. (And myself, because I'm just an awesome guy).

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Two people not voting that day sucks ass, I might add. But, since we have a whole one freakin' day to go by, I'm going by that day.

If we believe timmae, the top 4 vote getters are ALL villagers. If we assume a usual wolf spread on day one, some candidates become very clear - Vaimes, Zinto, Path.

I don't know what to make of brit & Narc. They've been awfully quiet, I have no read on either. That said, I cannot believe more than one, MAYBE two wolves were on EF at the end - it's usually better to spread the voting love.

BTW, I've no problem with being suspect (everyone is) but if you're putting me on the list because of a Day 1 vote it is a stretch.

If it's because I'm devil's advocating wolf theories I'm cool with that. But it would be way easier for me to keep my mouth shut at this point in the game if I was bad (which, for the record, I am not).

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Man when you take eight or ten minutes to finish a post, a lot can happen.

WTF? Yesterday he said something like "When you take 15 minutes to post, a lot can happen".

Very odd.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Because Raven has been batshit insane and has loved targeting me the whole game.

YOU, however, have every reason in the world to NOT vote me, considering there's far more suspicious people out there - unless you're evil.

Over dramatic much? I've mentioned you in the past, but today is the first day I've voted for you.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by path12

BTW, I've no problem with being suspect (everyone is) but if you're putting me on the list because of a Day 1 vote it is a stretch.

If it's because I'm devil's advocating wolf theories I'm cool with that. But it would be way easier for me to keep my mouth shut at this point in the game if I was bad (which, for the record, I am not).

Sadly, that's the only day where our voting records mean anything right now. The last two days have been a complete waste for analyzing votes. It's the only thing I have to go off of.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Warder's Cloak

Much of a Warder's ability comes from his bond with his Aes Sedai, but of use also is his cloak. Woven with color-changing cloth, this makes the warder very difficult to spot, and so difficult to attack.

Sounds to me like the Cloak would make The Warder (Chief) not reveal his role if scanned. Need to address how this plays into the cheeki vs Vaimes situation.

[Vaimes]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Because Raven has been batshit insane and has loved targeting me the whole game.

YOU, however, have every reason in the world to NOT vote me, considering there's far more suspicious people out there - unless you're evil.

"Anyone who votes for me is evil."

Okay. What are my reasons for not voting you, and who is Way More Suspicious than you?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Raven

Over dramatic much? I've mentioned you in the past, but today is the first day I've voted for you.

Dramatic? I have not yet begun to be dramatic! I'll show you dramatic!

...

I got nothing.

That said, I swear, every other post I see you make has been a comment about how you have a bad feeling about me. That's what I'm referring to.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Sadly, that's the only day where our voting records mean anything right now. The last two days have been a complete waste for analyzing votes. It's the only thing I have to go off of.

Fair, but then you need to take the green off yourself.