Survivor: New Helsing Tribal Thread

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think this sort of dry run gives us some definite conclusions as to what sort of approach makes more sense.

[SnDvls]

my strategy was to bid high on the largest one, but not too high to lose all my points. Then hit a 3rd or 4th high one and then go strong in the middle.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Alan, Excel to board should come out perfectly if you have the WYSIWYG editor, now that HTML is turned on.

I am a little limited to my options. I am bouncing off of a proxy server in England to connect here. Fofc is blocked at my work Luckily I do corporate networking so know the secret ways to get out

[Mr. Wednesday]

To whit, Alan's and my "spread 'em out and win with quantity, not quality" approach seems to fail miserably.

Alan, I'd like to see you analyze only in groups of four. Your final has six.

[Alan T]

Well I finished next to last, so my strategy obviously doesnt work too well with multiple teams Gramm and Sndvls both were pretty close to even, Lathum did well as well but not quite to the level of the other two.

Pass, you and I can be company at the bottom of the heap

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

To whit, Alan's and my "spread 'em out and win with quantity, not quality" approach seems to fail miserably.

Alan, I'd like to see you analyze only in groups of four. Your final has six.

Ok give me a few min. I just have to delete out collumns, but need to do something real quick for work.

[Passacaglia]

Alan, if we're at the bottom, can you take us out and run it with just 4? Since there are 4 tribes, that would be the best test.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Pass, that was what I was getting after, that running with six might distort things a little bit. Given the strategies that won even with the full group, though, I wouldn't think that the overall strategy changes, only perhaps the details.

[Grammaticus]

Looks like we had a few variations on strategy. It would definately look different with just four teams though. I was interested to see who did the spread formation versus stacked.

Interesting, I put $2 on the big one, just to beat out anyone that laid a 1 on it. If Sndvls had not weighed in with big points, that strategy kind of works. I was thinking everyone might stay away from the highest total and 5 of the 6 did just that.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Pass, that was what I was getting after, that running with six might distort things a little bit. Given the strategies that won even with the full group, though, I wouldn't think that the overall strategy changes, only perhaps the details.

Yeah -- I saw your post after I made mine!

[SnDvls]

taking out Alan & Pass I get

SnDvls @ 89
Lathum @ 82
Gram @ 63
Mr W @ 43

[Mr. Wednesday]

Gramm, yeah, I'm expecting some of the strategy thinking (and overthinking) to revolve around that. Ultimately, it's a bit of a Fezzini vs. Roberts problem.

[SnDvls]

if we could get 6 (values 20-14) that would give us 100 points

[SnDvls]

do a bid of
9
3
6
5
4
2
on those in our sheet and we get them all

[Alan T]

Alan		47	0	60.333
Pass		54	0	55.333
Lathum		82	82	0
Gramm		94	63	0
Mr.W		0	43	52.333
Snd		0	89	109

People with 0's wernt in those runs. I'll do a few more mixing people up some more.

[Alan T]

A larger sample.

Alan		47	0	60.333	43	0
Pass		54	0	55.333	0	32
Lathum		82	82	0	82	82
Gramm		94	63	0	63	127
Mr.W		0	43	52.333	0	36
Snd		0	89	109	89	0

[Alan T]

I think thats about the broadest range of samples we need. Lathum always scores the same 82. Lathum also never finished first once.

Sndvls won all three rounds he was in.
Grammaticus had the largest single turn score with 127, however whenever sndvls was in the game, Gramm always finished third.

[SnDvls]

here's the breakdown I was talking about in my last two posts, bid before letter/name.

we would get 100 points if we won them all. there is only 179 points in all the other places left. in our 6 person test these were the winning bids or better in one case.

A. Greater Werewolvia - 33
$2 B. Middle Werewolvia - 14
$9 C. Lesser Werewolvia - 20
D. Fleabit Cove - 11
E. Dogbonia - 10
F. Dog Ear - 12
$4 G. Homidia - 15
$5 H. Lupinia - 16
I. Garouvia - 25
$6 J. North Canis - 17
$3 K. Lake Wolfsbane - 18
L. South Canis - 29
M. Lower Fang - 23
N. Upper Fang -21
O. Alpovia - 13

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

do a bid of
9
3
6
5
4
2
on those in our sheet and we get them all

I can put these into our sheet, which ones did we want to bid these on? I could put this bid up in each of the scenerios of 4 and see how it does.

[Lathum]

so do we go with sndvls bids flat out or do we tweak them?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

here's the breakdown I was talking about in my last two posts, bid before letter/name.

we would get 100 points if we won them all. there is only 179 points in all the other places left. in our 6 person test these were the winning bids or better in one case.

A. Greater Werewolvia - 33
$2 B. Middle Werewolvia - 14
$9 C. Lesser Werewolvia - 20
D. Fleabit Cove - 11
E. Dogbonia - 10
F. Dog Ear - 12
$4 G. Homidia - 15
$5 H. Lupinia - 16
I. Garouvia - 25
$6 J. North Canis - 17
$3 K. Lake Wolfsbane - 18
L. South Canis - 29
M. Lower Fang - 23
N. Upper Fang -21
O. Alpovia - 13

Give me a minute, and I can run these numbers in the spreadsheet too for you

[Grammaticus]

If you cascade your points in the order below, you can probably nail all of the bids. At eighteen poins on average per win, you would get about 90 points and a likely win. Pretty close to SnDvls approach. But I think hw wastes points at 9 and risks losing at 3 and 2. Of course if one person beats you out, you are down to 72 points using averages.

7
7
6
5
4

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Give me a minute, and I can run these numbers in the spreadsheet too for you

H & J should be flip floped on bid amounts

[Lathum]

i think 9 is to high a well for hw

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

H & J should be flip floped on bid amounts

never mind it was correct the first time ...sorry

[Alan T]

I don't think the new numbers are as good as your original bid Sndvls:

Alan		47	0	60.333	43	0	0	51.333
Pass		54	0	55.333	0	32	0	80.333
Lathum		82	82	0	82	82	70.75	0
Gramm		94	63	0	63	127	61.25	0
Mr.W		0	43	52.333	0	36	0	52.333
Snd		0	89	109	89	0	80.75	0
NEW		0	0	0	0	0	64.25	118

[Alan T]

the new numbers crush Mr.W, Pass and I in the comparison. but when it went up vs lathum, gram and sndvls, it finished next to last with Sndvls once again winning.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

If you cascade your points in the order below, you can probably nail all of the bids. At eighteen poins on average per win, you would get about 90 points and a likely win. Pretty close to SnDvls approach. But I think hw wastes points at 9 and risks losing at 3 and 2. Of course if one person beats you out, you are down to 72 points using averages.

7
7
6
5
4

I can run this one too if you want, just need to know which ones these values go on.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't think the new numbers are as good as your original bid Sndvls:

I was more looking at them as a whole of all our bids not to replace any per say but if we get hit with ties on any of the modified bids that's where the modified one's kill us.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I can run this one too if you want, just need to know which ones these values go on.

plug them in to go with the 20-14 point values

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I was more looking at them as a whole of all our bids not to replace any per say but if we get hit with ties on any of the modified bids that's where the modified one's kill us.

Well I just think it says something that out of 7 simulations your bids were in 4 of them and won every single time. There are two goals here, 1 is to win, but 2 is to not finish last so we dont have to go to tribal council.

I would rather stick with a plan that seems to have running success that might not win, but is never going to give us low numbers. Right now your plan followed second by Lathum's gives us the best chance at that of what has been tossed out.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

plug them in to go with the 20-14 point values

With highest values on the 20, and lowest on the 14? Or directly as posted ?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

With highest values on the 20, and lowest on the 14? Or directly as posted ?

I already ran it,
it only get's us 57.5 points and last place

so never mind

my original gut picks seem to be the best...I'm over analyzing them now

[Alan T]

I am going to head home. I'll check in a bit later, but I think I like Sndvls picks right now the most. I'm game with what everyone wants to do, but I mainly don't want to finish last place. Finishing first is just bonus. See you all tonight.

[Lathum]

I'm good with sndvls picks. The point was to see what would work best and I think we found that out

[SnDvls]

who is going to submit the bids to BK? I probally won't be on to do it FYI

[Passacaglia]

We can submit them anytime if we're set.

cronin kind of ruined our flow by saying they submitted their bid already. Now we should all know not to just post it.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We can submit them anytime if we're set.

cronin kind of ruined our flow by saying they submitted their bid already. Now we should all know not to just post it.

Ya that and Alan talking about our MIT problems with me being on...no biggie not sure who if anyone would have bought it anyhow...it's was a good thought to start the day though.

[Lathum]

my thoughts exactly

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Ya that and Alan talking about our MIT problems with me being on...no biggie not sure who if anyone would have bought it anyhow...it's was a good thought to start the day though.

I don't think the MIT reference really hurt anything. I think we can still do it -- several hours later, who will remember, anyway?

[Alan T]

I dont personally think the MIT thing influences anything if its staged as sndvls getting mixed up where to send it.

I think St.cronin's comment is more troublesome as believability now depends on thinking that sndvls didnt see that comment.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I dont personally think the MIT thing influences anything if its staged as sndvls getting mixed up where to send it.

I think St.cronin's comment is more troublesome as believability now depends on thinking that sndvls didnt see that comment.

who knows...I wasn't placing blame either BTW just a general comment incase offense was taken none was intended.

if you all think it can still be passed through I can do it.

[Passacaglia]

I still think we might as well. Even if no one believe it, it will be funny.

[Alan T]

Doesnt matter to me either way. I dont know that anyone would have believed it in the first place, so yeah can probably still be funny

And no offense taken Sndvls, I wasnt upset

[Mr. Wednesday]

If we're going to post anything fake, we should make sure that someone trying to beat it doesn't luck into something that beats our real submission.

[Grammaticus]

I say pull the play action, it will cause confusion, at least.

[Grammaticus]

I say we go with the following..It will probably be guaranteed to not get last place and will likely net us the full 94 points, which would get first place

Well today you all will be asking yourselves something similar. Each tribe is being allocated $29. Your goal as a tribe is to get the most points. There are 15 "places" you can bid on with different points. Those places are
….A. Greater Werewolvia – 33
….B. Middle Werewolvia - 14
….C. Lesser Werewolvia – 20
….D. Fleabit Cove – 11
….E. Dogbonia - 10
….F. Dog Ear – 12
$4.G. Homidia – 15
$5.H. Lupinia – 16
$7.I. Garouvia – 25
$6.J. North Canis – 17
….K. Lake Wolfsbane – 18
….L. South Canis – 29
….M. Lower Fang - 23
$7.N. Upper Fang –21
….O. Alpovia – 13


I think we are putting too much direct stock in our sample. The four teams will pick different than we did. I think we can determine there is a high chance someone will go for a shotgun spread approach and that most of the others will still spread it out a bit.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

last number is my bid

A. Greater Werewolvia 7
C. Lesser Werewolvia 6
G. Homidia 4
H. Lupinia 5
I. Garouvia 7

here's my real bids

and here's the fake one's

Originally Posted by SnDvls

we still doing the fake bid in the "general" thread?

if so I'm more than up to doing it

something like this

NOTE: these aren't my real picks just for Ss&Gs here.

Barkeep - Helsing's bids are
$5 for Lesser Werewolvia
$5 for Fleabit Cove
$2 for Dogbonia
$2 for Dog Ear
$2 for Garouvia
$1 for North Canis
$1 for Lake Wolfsbane
$10 for South Canis
$1 for Alpovia

thoughts?

[SnDvls]

only 2 are the same and one would be my "real" bids from the fake one.

[Grammaticus]

Actually, this may be a little better on ensuring a strong point spread and the total points would net you a likely victory at 89 points.

Well today you all will be asking yourselves something similar. Each tribe is being allocated $29. Your goal as a tribe is to get the most points. There are 15 "places" you can bid on with different points. Those places are
….A. Greater Werewolvia – 33
….B. Middle Werewolvia - 14
….C. Lesser Werewolvia – 20
….D. Fleabit Cove – 11
$4.E. Dogbonia - 10
….F. Dog Ear – 12
….G. Homidia – 15
$5.H. Lupinia – 16
$7.I. Garouvia – 25
$6.J. North Canis – 17
….K. Lake Wolfsbane – 18
….L. South Canis – 29
….M. Lower Fang - 23
$7.N. Upper Fang –21
….O. Alpovia – 13