WW CXLVI: Portal GAME OVER - Test8

[JAG]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I think, as Narc said, we'd be hard-pressed to vote someone like Simbo or MV today. We just gain nothing useful if they are vanilla. I like the options of Autumn and JAG at this point, although I need to look back a little more.

Why me PF?

[PackerFanatic]

No particular reason. You seemed to bury your votes early and were the 2nd vote on DV yesterday. I think looking at the group of DV voters is probably our best bet today and you're as good a bet as the rest of them at this point, honestly

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm saying a wolf might try to look like a good guy. The wolves know I'm not one of them, so they may try to hide in a landslide, or alternately make sure they don't end up on me so they can say "well, I didn't kill a villager, you guys did."

This has traditionally been one of my favorite wolf moves. Frustration over it not working in one game even caused me to base a whole ruleset around rewarding players who made good decisions with their voting.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Day 2: The common votes for The Jackal are Hoops, GoldenEagle, Tyketime, and Raiders Army. Bhlloy also came in with the vote-deciding switcheroo at the last minute. If I had to bet, those are the five wolves, right there.

Originally Posted by britrock88

Yeah. 5 against 12 now.

Britrock, a few times you've mentioned this is your first game, yet in these two quoted posts you're speaking with certainty about there being five wolves, yet I don't recall anyone talking about wolf:villager ratios. Can you explain why you're so sure of this?

[bhlloy]

Autumn has a point here guys. If he was DV's night one scan, why no day 2 vote and why no reveal?

I think autumn is a fine candidate as I suspected him before DV was killed and Im not necessarily opposed to to him going down today. I just don't see it as some obvious runaway. Barring the possibility that DV wasn't playing deer by the rule book (which appears to be the case as he let himself get lynched without a reveal)

[bhlloy]

Seer not deer. Damn you autocorrect

Although its entirely possible he was playing with deer as well. No judge

[Autumn]

That could explain why he forgot to show up and reveal.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

No particular reason. You seemed to bury your votes early and were the 2nd vote on DV yesterday. I think looking at the group of DV voters is probably our best bet today and you're as good a bet as the rest of them at this point, honestly

As good a bet as the rest of them, yet you singled me out in particular. Why do you feel the group of DV voters is better than, say, the group of Jackal voters, seeing as both were found to be villagers? Your comment about burying votes early is interesting too, seeing as your voting record includes the first vote on Autumn day 1, the second vote on Jackal day 2, and the second vote on RA day 3.

[tyketime]

Home for lunch.

Unofficial Vote Totals

Autumn (6) : Simbo(744), Barkeep(751), Ragone(756), MarcV(764), Julio (782), KWhit(788)

Simbo (1): Tyketime (754)

Mckerney (1): bhlloy(787)

Packerfanatic (1): Autumn (795)

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by JAG

As good a bet as the rest of them, yet you singled me out in particular. Why do you feel the group of DV voters is better than, say, the group of Jackal voters, seeing as both were found to be villagers? Your comment about burying votes early is interesting too, seeing as your voting record includes the first vote on Autumn day 1, the second vote on Jackal day 2, and the second vote on RA day 3.

And you'll notice I didn't say my record was pristine either

[bhlloy]

I still don't feel warm and fuzzy about PF either for the record. Think he was a far better choice than DV yesterday. If he's the one to get behind so we can at least have a second option today I'm all for that, although I'd like to see McKerney sweat it out even more. That sounded a little wrong

[tyketime]

Obviously the group doesn't subscribe to the theory that the quieter ones are worth placing a vote or two on. That's cool - just a pet peeve of mine. And besides, he has been more active today. So I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.

UNVOTE SIMBO.

Originally Posted by Autumn

All I can tell you guys is that Darth definitely did not scan me. I can see where you'd draw the conclusion, and it's not a bad percentage play to go with to vote me given how little other information we have. But at least pay attention to who jumps on the bandwagon, as well as who tries to have be the good guy by not voting the guy he knows is a villager.

Autumn - I guess I'm a little confused here. Sounds like you are condemning those that vote for you from this point on as well as those who don't. Seems to me that's kinda having it both ways, right? Or did I misunderstand your point?

[Julio Riddols]

Unvote Autumn

Vote McKerney

I feel better about voting mckerney than I do autumn at this point.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Seems to me we've got a couple ways to go. Either focus in on common Jackal & Darth voters, or the couple of players NOT helping us out at all (here's to you Simbo). Any of you have a preference?

So if we've nixed the quiet votes for now, I guess we look at the voting records. Based on the common Jackal & Darth voters, I see three names:

KWhit
Autumn
Goldeneagle

[JAG]

I wouldn't give GE as much negative weighting for his self-defense vote.

[tyketime]

True enough. Sometimes the votes are less revealing without proper context.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Autumn - I guess I'm a little confused here. Sounds like you are condemning those that vote for you from this point on as well as those who don't. Seems to me that's kinda having it both ways, right? Or did I misunderstand your point?

Well, this is Werewolf. Condeming 99% of the participants is part of the game!

Obviously there will be lots of villagers who vote for me because it makes sense, and villagers who will not vote for me because they don't want a landslide. And until, or if, I am lynched, the village will be looking at voters to see if anyone is going to save me, thinking the're going to catch a wolf.

I just want to highlight that, since I know there are no wolves trying to save me, the only thing the village can get out of lynching me is looking for where wolves hide thier votes when there's a runaway on a villager. It's hard to distinguish those from actual villagers, of course, but maybe someone will get something out of it.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by JAG

Britrock, a few times you've mentioned this is your first game, yet in these two quoted posts you're speaking with certainty about there being five wolves, yet I don't recall anyone talking about wolf:villager ratios. Can you explain why you're so sure of this?

This is a pretty good catch JAG. Britrock?

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Because I'm a villager. If he had scanned me he wouldn't have voted me.

Thats possible I suppose, do bear in mind however I'm a newbie and tbh have no real idea what a Seer is - from the sounds of things they're basically a mine detector for bad guys able to scan someone, I presume once per day by the sounds of things.

Autumn is suggesting that the Seer basically hit 'cold' continually - in which case he was voting as blind as anyone else and happened to vote for Autumn.

The problem is that he voted for the same person twice, thats not the act of someone who isn't sure imho - thats the voting of someone who knows something ...

[bhlloy]

Except on the first day Marc, he couldn't have known anything. And if he did scan his day 1 vote (which is a common play) and found Autumn to be Wolfy, why not vote for him on day 2 or just reveal at that point?

I guess it's believable that he didn't scan Autumn until day 2, and thought he would try to get another day in before a reveal. It's possible, but not how I would play as a seer.

[bhlloy]

And again I'm not arguing against Autumn per se. I think there's a pretty good chance he does come up wolf

I am arguing against a runaway however. We learn very little from that and maybe one of the other guys we are discussing is a wolf as well.

[GoldenEagle]

I think a vote for PF could give us more information about Autmun. That is twice now that he has tried to create voting friction between himself and PF with very little chance of it catching on.

If the wolves figure Autumn is bound to get lynched anyway, then voting for other wolves would be a good way to hide it. If Autumn figures he is not going to get lynched, then it is a good place to hide a vote and create some doubt if one of them gets nabbed.

There is also the chance that Autum is a villager who just senses that PF is a wolf.

All that adds up to where I am putting my vote today, at least for the time being. Subject to change as always.

VOTE PACKER FANATIC

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by JAG

Britrock, a few times you've mentioned this is your first game, yet in these two quoted posts you're speaking with certainty about there being five wolves, yet I don't recall anyone talking about wolf:villager ratios. Can you explain why you're so sure of this?

Yeah this was the reason for my question to Britrock before. I've been kind of assuming five wolves based of experience on these boards but I think there's a lot of places where 5 would be seen as a bit high. I don't think it's a certainty though - which made me wonder if Brit knows there's five and slipped up by saying it so matter-of-factly. I didn't vote because I was waiting on an answer from Brit.

There's also the stuff Bhlloy pointed out about Britrock waiting and waiting before making the day two vote until Bhlloy shifted his vote allowing Brit to put in a meaningless vote on Raiders. Even if you assume Raiders is villager a wolf wouldn't want to put themselves in the position of being seen as the one to lynch a villager by making the decisive vote. Got to give Brit some leeway as a rookie villager might not want to make that decision either but still.

[bhlloy]

Yeah I'm giving him a pass as a first time player, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see him as an inexperienced wolf either.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Excellent. You have now voted for another tester who we have sealed in a glass cube on a moving platform. Everyone wave to him. See how he waves back. He is so happy he has won, he is screaming for joy. Please put on your protective sunglasses and stand away from the edge as Darth Vilus now will ride the slow descent into the surrounding flames. Do not inhale the fumes although you can do with his ashes as you will. Ah there they are now! Oh that tasted so good. So, so good that tester.



The platform comes to a stop. All that is left of DV amid the ash is a nametag from his orange jumpsuit that reads "Chell". DV was CHELL, the SEER. He was an excellent tester on the side of good.

Damn, I go away for a day, and this happens? Blah.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Very unusual for Passa to miss a vote. In fact he's normally a lot more active as well.

Can't help but feel that all this is going to kill us in the end.

Yeah, sorry about that! I didn't think about how my day and evening were both going to be taken up. I had an hour and a half in between my two events, but that was mostly taken up with driving and eating, and I didn't want to do a drive-by vote when I wouldn't have really known what was going on.

[Narcizo]

Cutting to the chase the only time I'll be happy with a runaway vote is when a seer has come out and outed a wolf. I think the case against Autumn is decent even if I'm not getting a wolf vibe off of him.

The choices to avoid a runaway vote look like Packer or Mckerney. I'm not getting the case against mckerney particularly the meta-gamey nature for arguing that he had to come in as a replacement for a wolf. I see the logic in the case that Autumn made against Packer yesterday so I think I'll be going a-there. I'm also trying to avoid the grand-unifying theory but Packer made his RA vote when Britrock seemed to be getting some heat.

Vote Packers

[Narcizo]

Vote count as of #827 - building on tyke's count.

Autumn (5) : Simbo(744), Barkeep(751), Ragone(756), MarcV(764), KWhit(788)

Mckerney (2): bhlloy(787), Julio Riddols (813)

Packerfanatic (3): Autumn (795), GoldenEagle (822), Nacizo (827)

[bhlloy]

I'll make the switch then. I like PF just as much as I like Autumn for this one

Unvote McKerney
Vote PF

[bhlloy]

I will add that I get a distinct feeling that Julio has done a lot of piggybacking onto relatively safe votes this game, although its just from recollection

[PackerFanatic]

Looks like I need to save myself a bit, and I did like the Autumn theory to begin with.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Narcizo]

Someone talk to me about something. I feel like everybody is pretty suspicious but at the same time I don't really have much of an idea about where to go with this. You've got the likes of Passa, Simbo and MV disappearing and the dearth of voting information and I've got to go soon.

I still think Raiders and GoldenEagle are villagers. That means we were villager-villager every day. I wish I could interpret Darth's votes as indicative of a negative scan of Autumn but it wouldn't surprise me if it's just Darth being Darth. I'm starting to think that Packer has been a bit off this game so I guess I'm happy enough with my vote but it feels like we should have more to go on on day four.

[Passacaglia]

Narc, I'm around. Busy and feeling not-quite-caught-up, but around.

[JAG]

I think it's pretty likely RA is a villager, not quite as sure about GE but I feel reasonably ok about him.

[Passacaglia]

Do you mean Autumn instead of Raiders, Narc?

[Narcizo]

All I'd say is that people seem to be looking at people who have voted Darth and/or Jackal. That's understandable but actually turns out to be completely meaningless if the competition were also villagers. You're just looking at people because they had the misfortune to land on the winning side. I think you need to look at the context of the vote. And, erm, stuff.

With these confused words I bid you adieu.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Do you mean Autumn instead of Raiders, Narc?

When?

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Someone talk to me about something. I feel like everybody is pretty suspicious but at the same time I don't really have much of an idea about where to go with this. You've got the likes of Passa, Simbo and MV disappearing and the dearth of voting information and I've got to go soon.

I still think Raiders and GoldenEagle are villagers. That means we were villager-villager every day. I wish I could interpret Darth's votes as indicative of a negative scan of Autumn but it wouldn't surprise me if it's just Darth being Darth. I'm starting to think that Packer has been a bit off this game so I guess I'm happy enough with my vote but it feels like we should have more to go on on day four.

It's what I get for taking so many games off...trying to get back into the swing of things and actually contribute...as much as I can

[Narcizo]

Ah! No. I'm not as sure about Autumn as Raiders, ironically. I was looking at my vote tallies and seeing who the close-run seconds are.

I'm a bit dubious of people experienced enough to know better pushing a landslide on Autumn whether Autumn is a wolf or villager. But I don't have to time to try and argue against KWhit now to be honest. I'm a bit upset that this seems to have turned into a 2-horse race so soon as well. In fact that seems to have been a problem day two and three as well.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

When?

Wha?

[Narcizo]

Meh! Night all.

[PackerFanatic]

It doesn't help no one seems to be on much before 5-ish CST - at least that is how it seems to me. A lot of vote-and-dash going on

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ah! No. I'm not as sure about Autumn as Raiders, ironically. I was looking at my vote tallies and seeing who the close-run seconds are.

I'm a bit dubious of people experienced enough to know better pushing a landslide on Autumn whether Autumn is a wolf or villager. But I don't have to time to try and argue against KWhit now to be honest. I'm a bit upset that this seems to have turned into a 2-horse race so soon as well. In fact that seems to have been a problem day two and three as well.

I'm down. But what's your thinking that makes you think we're villager-villager now, anyway? I generally think that people who are getting lots of votes are more likely to be villagers, but the way this has gone, with Autumn leaping out in front, then people coming in "to make it a race" makes me wonder about him. That said, I don't want to vote him, since, well, I want to make it a race.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm down. But what's your thinking that makes you think we're villager-villager now, anyway? I generally think that people who are getting lots of votes are more likely to be villagers, but the way this has gone, with Autumn leaping out in front, then people coming in "to make it a race" makes me wonder about him. That said, I don't want to vote him, since, well, I want to make it a race.

Yeah, as long as "make it a race" doesn't turn into "surprise winner" a little dissension is fine with me... But I feel like Autumn is the right lynch today. I actually thought PackerFanatic made some pretty good points in the short times I was on earlier, but I can see the logic behind votes for him if people think he's acting a little "off".

[KWhit]

I wouldn't mind seeing it be a legitimate 2-horse race either. I just think that DV's posts and votes for Autumn mean 1 of 2 things.

1) Autumn is a wolf
2) DV played the seer really badly

I'm hoping that it is #1 and frankly, I think we need to find out tonight what Autumn's deal is. I also think the wolves are smart enough to know that Autumn's gonna get lynched - likely tonight tomorrow night. If Autumn is actually a wolf, I don't think any other wolves would be caught dead trying to save him since he'd likely continue to be a vote-getter every night from now on. It's the ONLY information our seer possibly communicated to us. We have to follow up on it, IMO.

[PackerFanatic]

To be fair to DV, he did say he wasn't going to be around when he posted his vote yesterday and he had no votes on him at the time. It would have been foolish to say anything at that time.

[PackerFanatic]

dola - I am saying that even if Autumn turns out to be a villager...which I think would be pretty surprising at this point.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

To be fair to DV, he did say he wasn't going to be around when he posted his vote yesterday and he had no votes on him at the time. It would have been foolish to say anything at that time.

It would have been foolish for him to claim, but I don't know why you'd vote for someone two days in a row as the seer unless you had a result, knowing that if the worst happens the trail of breadcrumbs you leave is going to someone you don't have anything on.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I wouldn't mind seeing it be a legitimate 2-horse race either. I just think that DV's posts and votes for Autumn mean 1 of 2 things.

1) Autumn is a wolf
2) DV played the seer really badly

I'm hoping that it is #1 and frankly, I think we need to find out tonight what Autumn's deal is. I also think the wolves are smart enough to know that Autumn's gonna get lynched - likely tonight tomorrow night. If Autumn is actually a wolf, I don't think any other wolves would be caught dead trying to save him since he'd likely continue to be a vote-getter every night from now on. It's the ONLY information our seer possibly communicated to us. We have to follow up on it, IMO.

We *have* to? Why? What will it tell us other than whether or not Autumn is a wolf?

[Passacaglia]

Sorry, reading fail on the rest of your post. I get it.