POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

There's a lot of just assuming that if Biden drops out the replacement would do better that I don't think is justified. It's possible that would happen, but IMO it's more likely that the chaos which would result favors Trump. It's certainly something we have no frame of reference for, since it hasn't ever happened in presidential politics in America.

Agreed. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be worth trying. I think Biden is very much a long-shot now. Anyone else would be as well, but at least they might have something other than "I'm not Trump" to energize people about.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I still say this goes back to 2020. Choosing Biden then largely was choosing Biden now. They are one and the same decision.

No it wasn't. I think there was a reasonable assumption then that he was not going to run again if he won. There was definitely a wink and a nod from his campaign at the time, and based on his age it only seemed logical that he wouldn't. He wasn't my choice then, but there was some good argument at the time that he was exactly what we needed for that election (established, stable, known, respected), but his decline mentally and physically, especially in the last year, makes him a liability now.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

The very fact that people are increasingly concerned about Biden's mental state points to the idea that he could just be wrong about this. We can't say on the one hand 'Biden can no longer handle the job mentally' and also say 'He obviously knows he's not the best choice and should step down'. Either he is being affected by mental decline, or he isn't.

No it doesn't. He can be in mental decline (which he obviously is) and not be a gibbering idiot incapable of reasonable thought. That he no longer has the mental acuity to continue in one of the most demanding jobs on earth doesn't mean he isn't capable of self-assessment. I think it is way more likely that it just hubris. You have to have a giant ego to believe you could handle that job in the first place.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Pritzker is a bad candidate on the national stage, Whitmer needs a full cycle to build her name, and Shaprio is less known than the other 2. Newsome has his issues, but would likely be the best candidate without the last name Obama to put forward this late.

Shapiro and Whitmer easily won races against a Trump candidate in states Biden has to win. I think either one would carry Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan which is all the Dems need. They have 4 months to make their case and unlike Biden, they can make the rounds giving interviews and giving speeches.

They can't do worse than Biden. And the problem with Biden is he is destroying the Democratic base of voters which will be difficult to recover from in 2028 and beyond.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Shapiro and Whitmer easily won races against a Trump candidate in states Biden has to win. I think either one would carry Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan which is all the Dems need. They have 4 months to make their case and unlike Biden, they can make the rounds giving interviews and giving speeches.

They can't do worse than Biden. And the problem with Biden is he is destroying the Democratic base of voters which will be difficult to recover from in 2028 and beyond.

I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it out to be. It's not showing up in polling.

Dem polling shows there's more support for Biden remaining the nominee. Only 29% of dems polled since the debate are for replacing him. Independents are split, but someone more to the left than Biden risks alienating them. Only 30% of black voters polled are for replacing him.

Access to this page has been denied

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it out to be. It's not showing up in polling.

Dem polling shows there's more support for Biden remaining the nominee. Only 29% of dems polled since the debate are for replacing him. Independents are split, but someone more to the left than Biden risks alienating them. Only 30% of black voters polled are for replacing him.

Access to this page has been denied

If half of independents and a third of your own party think you should step down, you're a pretty shitty candidate.

And even if you are just viewing it from an electoral lens, do you really think it is good for the country to have a guy with huge cognitive issues in office for another 4 years? Seems pretty bad for the country.

[JPhillips]

There are not huge cognitive issues. This is you being purposefully disingenuous yet again.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

x.com

This poll shows not much difference depending on the candidate.

Also, the two demographics there has been concern about Biden losing are minorities and pro-Palestinian youth voters. I fail to see how passing over Harris for three white Zionists (probably moreso than Biden) accomplishes anything in that area.

You simply can't pass over the black VP for a white guy and expect it not to matter. No Dem can win without heavy support from black women.

[RainMaker]

You can do whatever it takes to win. And no one gives a shit about Kamala.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

There are not huge cognitive issues. This is you being purposefully disingenuous yet again.

This may be true in fact, but I've had several people in casual conversation (hiardresser, neighbor, co-worker) all say Biden looked, sounded and acted like he was somewhat debilitated.

Not many people know what it takes to run the country, but everyone has an older relative who you have to watch out for and keep from harming themselves because they don't know any better. That's the vibe Biden gave off on Thursday, and it'll be damn near impossible to recover from it.

[Danny]

He may not have huge cognitive issues. Hes probably fine to sit on the couch, watch the game with and have some intelligent conversation, but he does not appear mentally fit to be president another four years.

[RainMaker]

Kind of an ominous story. Maybe he will do what's best and drop out.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ess-rcna159591

[Lathum]

If it truly is a family decision and they tell him he should stay in the race I firmly believe they are more like the power hungry family the right paints them as than I would have believed.

[Saul Goode]

Who fucking cares about a debate? This is the most ridiculous news cycle I've ever seen. I'm mentioned what Trump did during the debate that should immediately disqualify him from ever holding office again, don't forget the crimes!

I got a compromise, make Obama VP and we can have 4 more years of Barry, I'm down like a clown, charlie Brown. Just to let you know the ridiculous hit pieces are coming out, Joe Biden’s Childhood Neighbor: ‘It’s Time To Go’.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That happened while Biden was President. He had no way of stopping it and doesn't seem to really care to help those in red states anyway on the issue. Unless 3 conservative judges step down AND Biden was able to get new justices confirmed, it won't change in the next 4 years.

I'm sorry, but none of that is remotely true. You need to hold the trifecta, pres,house & senate. You need 50 senators willing to nuke the filibuster, you have 48ish right now. (murkowski is waffling on sides ATM, she could be 49) You pass legislation telling the extreme court to go fuck itself on abortion, regulation and really any crazy right wing mumbo jumbo. Don't forget bri...tipping judges!

[Brian Swartz]

Congress can't pass legislation telling the Court to do that. That's not how it works.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Congress can't pass legislation telling the Court to do that. That's not how it works.

Yes, that is how it works.
Overriding judicial decisions, while always an important tool in Congress’s legislative toolbox, has fallen by the wayside over the last two decades.

Congress repeatedly changed the size of the court for political ends and revoked the court’s ability to review a case

When Congress introduced more bills that would limit the court’s power, the court struck down fewer laws

Even where the court has ruled on constitutional grounds, there is often much room left to legislate the boundaries,

Overrides can be passed, These statutory overrides offer a road map for progressives left paralyzed by the court’s new composition

should not lose sight of Congress’s power to temper or reverse existing court decisions.


One key way that Congress can regulate federal courts is by establishing the scope of their
jurisdiction.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

Who fucking cares about a debate? This is the most ridiculous news cycle I've ever seen. I'm mentioned what Trump did during the debate that should immediately disqualify him from ever holding office again, don't forget the crimes!

I got a compromise, make Obama VP and we can have 4 more years of Barry, I'm down like a clown, charlie Brown. Just to let you know the ridiculous hit pieces are coming out, Joe Biden’s Childhood Neighbor: ‘It’s Time To Go’.

If you don't think the debate reinforcing what peoples biggest concern about Biden has been for the last year you aren't paying attention.

He wasn't just bad, he was an absolute disaster.

[Brian Swartz]

If you change the size of the court, the other side changes it again when they are in power and you've effectively removed one of the three co-equal branches of government. The court simply rules however the current side in power makes them rule, and if they won't do it on their own, you add enough justices until they do.

There is a natural back-and-forth when SCOTUS thinks Congress has overstepped and Congress disagrees, but ultimately the court has the power to say when that has happened and again, without that, the court can no longer serve it's purpose.

Most of what has happened to the court is in fact Congress's fault, with the increasing politicization (it was always there, but not to the same degree) over the past 40 years of how appointments are handled. This is not a SCOTUS issue, it is a Congressional issue, which ultimately comes back to it being an electorate issue.

When the goal becomes to win the political game at absolutely any cost, you've already destroyed the value of any victory you might achieve.

Congress has zero power to 'reverse existing court decisions'.

[Saul Goode]

It always amazes me how little the average person knows about politics. I find it hilarious you think the supreme Court are a bunch of kings issuing decrees.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Congress has zero power to 'reverse existing court decisions'.

They can pass abortion protections which nullifies Dobbs. The Democrats just hasn't found it important.

And I think it's fine to expand the court. Even if both sides do it, it makes every Justice less powerful which is a good thing. Especially since you can just buy them.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think that, and they aren't. There is however, a reason why they have oversight over Congress and, aside from impeachments, not the other way around after they've made decisions.

Originally Posted by Rainmaker

And I think it's fine to expand the court. Even if both sides do it, it makes every Justice less powerful which is a good thing. Especially since you can just buy them.

Might as well just absolish the court if you're going to do that. There's no point in going through the pro forma exercise of keeping it around if you're just going to pretend it doesn't exist in practice anyway.

[Dutch]

Saw this on X and checked ChatGPT to verify.

Election Year First Debate Date
2024 June 27, 2024
2020 September 29, 2020
2016 September 26, 2016
2012 October 3, 2012
2008 September 26, 2008
2004 September 30, 2004
2000 October 3, 2000
1996 October 6, 1996

The Democrats knew what was up and needed a date ASAP to get the machine fired up as soon as possible. It’s the right call, Biden hasn’t been in charge and if the DNC wins again, at least they’ll have somebody in office that can be in the actual executive branch and it’s not run by a bunch of unelected extreme left minders.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If you don't think the debate reinforcing what peoples biggest concern about Biden has been for the last year you aren't paying attention.

He wasn't just bad, he was an absolute disaster.

Id never vote Trumpso ill be voting for Biden regardless but as someone who is fairly liberal, id have strongly considered a moderate non MAGA republican over Biden this election given his current state. (Of course with no teump, its probably been some other maga nut id never vote for anyway)

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't think that, and they aren't. There is however, a reason why they have oversight over Congress and, aside from impeachments, not the other way around after they've made decisions.

Might as well just absolish the court if you're going to do that. There's no point in going through the pro forma exercise of keeping it around if you're just going to pretend it doesn't exist in practice anyway.

It's the job of Congress to be oversight for the court too. The Judicial branch does not have complete and total power. Checks and balances work both ways.

There's no point in pretending the courts are anything but a way for wealthy people to buy their way around laws. You don't have to keep up this charade about them being some honorable branch of government that ieeps the otuer branches in check. Clarence will let you dump nuclear waste into the water supply if you take him to Tahiti for a weekend getaway.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Congress has zero power to 'reverse existing court decisions'.

I guess if you say it, it makes it true?
Access to this page has been denied
oh for christ sake,
Five times Congress overrode the Supreme Court



They can pass legislation overriding a decision. I don't know what else you want.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

When the goal becomes to win the political game at absolutely any cost, you've already destroyed the value of any victory you might achieve.

Again, not true at all. You can now legally brib...tip judges, destroy regulations, really whatever the extreme king court wants to do. It's a zero-sum game. They have the control now and get to make up whatever asinine rules the con judges can be paid off for.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

Id never vote Trumpso ill be voting for Biden regardless but as someone who is fairly liberal, id have strongly considered a moderate non MAGA republican over Biden this election given his current state. (Of course with no teump, its probably been some other maga nut id never vote for anyway)

any republican that would get through would NOT AT ALL be a moderate.

[RainMaker]

Another post debate poll. Wonder if some of these are coming out internally and that's why Biden is having a family discussion.

#New General Election Poll

�� Trump 45% (+5)
�� Biden 40%
�� Kennedy 10%

One of the most 2020 accurate pollsters

Atlas Intel A+ - 1634 RV - 6/28

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 30, 2024

[Dutch]

Saw this on X and checked ChatGPT to verify.

Election Year First Debate Date
2024 June 27, 2024
2020 September 29, 2020
2016 September 26, 2016
2012 October 3, 2012
2008 September 26, 2008
2004 September 30, 2004
2000 October 3, 2000
1996 October 6, 1996

The Democrats knew what was up and needed a date ASAP to get the machine fired up as soon as possible. It’s the right call, Biden hasn’t been in charge and if the DNC wins again, at least they’ll have somebody in office that can be in the actual executive branch and it’s not run by a bunch of unelected extreme left minders.

[JPhillips]

RFK Jr. is such a clown. After being an independent, flirting with the Libertarians, and showing interest in being Trump's VP, now he says he'd like to be the Dem nom if Biden steps down.

[Ksyrup]

Latest CBS poll on the candidates' mental/cognitive health to serve as President:

Biden 27/72
Trump 50/49

Perception is reality and in what was already a razor-close or losing position for Biden, this is fatal for his campaign.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

RFK Jr. is such a clown. After being an independent, flirting with the Libertarians, and showing interest in being Trump's VP, now he says he'd like to be the Dem nom if Biden steps down.

He probably wins if that is the case. He would get my vote.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

He probably wins if that is the case. He would get my vote.

I wouldn’t vote for RFK Jr if he was running unopposed.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Saw this on X and checked ChatGPT to verify.

Election Year First Debate Date
2024 June 27, 2024
2020 September 29, 2020
2016 September 26, 2016
2012 October 3, 2012
2008 September 26, 2008
2004 September 30, 2004
2000 October 3, 2000
1996 October 6, 1996

The Democrats knew what was up and needed a date ASAP to get the machine fired up as soon as possible. It’s the right call, Biden hasn’t been in charge and if the DNC wins again, at least they’ll have somebody in office that can be in the actual executive branch and it’s not run by a bunch of unelected extreme left minders.

Since you're going to post this 90 times.....
Name one elected federal judge.
Have you heard of Steve Bannon, Roger Stone or Stephen Miller?
If you're going to post idiotic conspiracy theories from craphole twitter, at least post some names or something? Why isn't Obama behind Biden's presidency? Is he not extreme or left minder enough?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I wouldn’t vote for RFK Jr if he was running unopposed.

He is WAY better than Trump. It isn't even close. And yes, I realize that is saying something.

I have researched project 2025. I am a firm believer a Trump presidency would fundamentally change our nation in ways we will not recover from.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by Lathum

He is WAY better than Trump. It isn't even close. And yes, I realize that is saying something.

I have researched project 2025. I am a firm believer a Trump presidency would fundamentally change our nation in ways we will not recover from.

In an election of 2 and only 2 people, you would vote against Trump.
Let's say the other person running against Trump is old, you would still vote against Trump?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

In an election of 2 and only 2 people, you would vote against Trump.
Let's say the other person running against Trump is old, you would still vote against Trump?

I would vote a corpse over Trump.

If you're asking if Biden has my vote he does and nothing will change that assuming he is the candidate.

That being said I think he loses if he is, but I thought that before the debate

[Edward64]

I've read some articles on RFK. He really does not seem out of the norm (certainly not as much as Trump) other than his anti-vax views, and even that he is arguably more rational than Trump.

reuters.com
Who is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and why is he running for president? | AP News

For those that think he is worse than Trump as a whole, I am interested in understanding your POV. Because, if it was between RFK and Trump, I would vote RFK from what I've read.

[dubb93]

He’s the liar you don’t know and at any time could leach onto any conspiracy theory he sees fit. He’s as dangerous or more so, because while Trump mostly talks RFK acts on his crazy views. And his crazy views go much further than just vaccines he’s a conspiracy theorist through and through.

It’s pretty telling that even his family denounces him.

hxxps://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/10/10/rfk-jr-launches-independent-2024-run-here-are-all-the-conspiracies-he-promotes-from-vaccines-to-mass-shootings/

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by dubb93

He’s the liar you don’t know and at any time could leach onto any conspiracy theory he sees fit. He’s as dangerous or more so, because while Trump mostly talks RFK acts on his crazy views. And his crazy views go much further than just vaccines he’s a conspiracy theorist through and through.

It’s pretty telling that even his family denounces him.

hxxps://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/10/10/rfk-jr-launches-independent-2024-run-here-are-all-the-conspiracies-he-promotes-from-vaccines-to-mass-shootings/

He has all the bad qualities of Trump, and then some.

[Atocep]

RFK Jr isn't even comparable to Trump. You can take someone with worse qualities and beliefs than Trump, but Trump has a following willing to bend the knee and complete his agenda. There isn't another politician out there with that following and that's what makes him dangerous.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

because while Trump mostly talks RFK acts on his crazy views.

/

This kind of thinking regarding Trump is very dangerous and flawed. In 2016 he never thought he would win and came in with no plan. He still had people like Kelly, Bolton, etc..who would tell him no. This time around he will 100% surround himself with people who have bad intentions and will be 100% yes men. They also spent a lot of time to pack the courts.

Yes Trump will have stupid ideas like immigrant fight club, etc...and while we all spend time talking about that shit Miller will be removing the Department of Ed and Laura Loomer will be gutting the free press.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This kind of thinking regarding Trump is very dangerous and flawed. In 2016 he never thought he would win and came in with no plan. He still had people like Kelly, Bolton, etc..who would tell him no. This time around he will 100% surround himself with people who have bad intentions and will be 100% yes men. They also spent a lot of time to pack the courts.

Yes Trump will have stupid ideas like immigrant fight club, etc...and while we all spend time talking about that shit Miller will be removing the Department of Ed and Laura Loomer will be gutting the free press.

So the best answer you can come up with is RFK Jr? We are doomed.

[dubb93]

I never said I would vote for Trump either. I’m just saying if the docket is Trump-RFK I see the same guy on the ballot twice. I’ll just stay at home.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

So the best answer you can come up with is RFK Jr? We are doomed.

I literally never said that.

I was very clear. I am voting for Biden. If RFK was to replace Biden on the dem ticket he would get my vote, as would anyone else the dems run out there.

My point is as wacky as RFK is Trump is far more a threat.

I would love for the same family members endorsing Biden over RFK who they would endorse in an RFK-Trump race.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I never said I would vote for Trump either. I’m just saying if the docket is Trump-RFK I see the same guy on the ballot twice. I’ll just stay at home.

Then thats a vote for Trump, because his people aren't staying home.

[timmynausea]

The betting odds have Biden at a 19% chance of winning as of June 30th. Seems bad. (Edit to add: Trump is at a 54.3% chance of victory, so Biden's number is influenced by the idea that he could drop out. Still alarming to me to see that.)

2024 U.S. President

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Then thats a vote for Trump, because his people aren't staying home.

Shouldn't not voting for Trump be a vote for Biden by this logic?

[Danny]

Id say that counts a half vote either way

[RainMaker]

New CBS News poll

41% of Democrats and 80% of Independents say Joe Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as President

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) June 30, 2024

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Shouldn't not voting for Trump be a vote for Biden by this logic?

No because the support for Trump is so baked in

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Shouldn't not voting for Trump be a vote for Biden by this logic?

If a person that would otherwise vote Dem decides to not vote for a Dem candidate that is effectively a vote for the other party and vice versa.