WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[Autumn]

This is an important vote, I'd love to see those people on non viable candidates move their votes and make their picks.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chubby

but to be clear, Lathum is tomorrow's fish to fry

Your tunnel vision is so bad it is actually making me laugh.

I have yet to play a game where someone claims to be so certain about something they are so wrong about, it is actually funny.

And any info I give the wolves helps them. I thought you would be a good choice for a wolf kill last night, so in case you were a villager I gave the item to you so we could trap one. I also figured if you were a wolf it may hurt you, so it was a win-win.

The fact no one else has come out and A. claimed having that item and B. claiming they gave it to you there is no reason to NOT believe me.

Not to mention as a wolf, there is no way I give that item to you.

[Lathum]

vote count?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by JAG

Day 2 Voting as of Post 793:
Danny 7 - Chubby (694), J23 (700), Autumn (706), Zinto (713), mauboy1 (714), hoopsguy (744), Barkeep49 (769)
Chubby 5 - Lathum (501), Darth Vilus (644), EagleFan (670), mckerney (675), Danny (777)
ntndeacon 2 - Narcizo (607), jeheinz72 (694)
Lathum 1 - Racer (782)
jeheinz72 1 - ntndeacon (787)

Quoted to put on current page, no additional vote changes since it was posted.

[MrBug708]

I'm unsold on either candidate. Or rather, I'm not sold one way or another

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is an important vote, I'd love to see those people on non viable candidates move their votes and make their picks.

I agree with this one thousand percent.

[Telle]

Is anybody else considering the option that both Chubby and Danny are telling the truth about who they are?

Earlier I was inclined to believe Danny, and I haven't seen much to change that. Considering Chubby's possibly misguided assessment of Lathum's statements yesterday, I'm not exactly confident about his ability to interpret things leading to proof that Danny is a wolf; but him being wrong on that doesn't mean that he's a lying wolf either.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I'm off to watch the USMNT. Will hopefully check back in at half (but am also baking cookies so those things might conflict).

[Telle]

vote ntndeacon

I'm not convinced that EITHER Chubby or Danny are wolves. So going with the next highest vote getter.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Telle

Is anybody else considering the option that both Chubby and Danny are telling the truth about who they are?

Earlier I was inclined to believe Danny, and I haven't seen much to change that. Considering Chubby's possibly misguided assessment of Lathum's statements yesterday, I'm not exactly confident about his ability to interpret things leading to proof that Danny is a wolf; but him being wrong on that doesn't mean that he's a lying wolf either.

Yeah, that's why I'm reluctant to put my vote on either one.

Unvote Lathum

Assuming there isn't a rule in place regarding not being able to pass an item between wolves, it would make sense to keep that item among the wolves it doesn't hurt (since it appears it only hurts one of them by the item's description).

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Telle

Is anybody else considering the option that both Chubby and Danny are telling the truth about who they are?

I'm considering it, though between the two I have less trust right now in Chubby and there's less risk in lynching him.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm considering it, though between the two I have less trust right now in Chubby and there's less risk in lynching him.

I actually trust Chubby a little more.. but agree there's less risk in lynching him. I think he's a little off his rocker though, but I don't think that means wolf.

[Lathum]

yikes, I almost just burned my house down.

Turned on the grill, cleaned it and put my sons burger on. Went into his room for a few minutes to play with him, come out ant there are 4 foot flames shooting up from it, the drip pan had caught fire.

Disconnected the tank and put it out. looks like I am using the flat top tonight.

[Telle]

Btw, just to be open and honest.. I had an item yesterday. Since I had no particular trust for anybody specifically, I let it get reassigned randomly.

[Lathum]

Lyniching Danny is such a poor play today. He is likely lying, but that will all come forward in a day or two.

[Racer]

By the way, is there a better third candidate then ntndeacon? Looking back he threw the first vote at Danny and never changed it.

I sort of believe Chubby is a villager though I'm not sure I really trust his instincts at this point. As far as Danny goes, I just feel like the downside is to great when I don't see what hurts in waiting to lynch him a few days from now.

[bhlloy]

Vote Chubby

I'm sorry but "I know x is a wolf and it's obvious but I'm not saying where or how it's obvious because it's helping the wolves" doesn't work for me. If it's that obvious then the wolves presumably know where they slipped up. It needs to be out in the open or I'm not buying it.

Plus I just can't get behind lynching somebody who has revealed. If it's a fake reveal, it will come out in the next few days. I don't like taking the chance that it's not, and it certainly feels like we are being pushed that way.

[Racer]

I guess

Vote ntndeacon

[bhlloy]

I'm very interested in hearing Thomkal's insight he was mentioning earlier, and whether that hurts or helps Chubby's case. But I'm very unlikely to vote for Danny today. It just doesn't feel like the right play.

[bhlloy]

I think if we don't lynch Danny or Chubby today, we're having the exact same conversation tomorrow. I don't know what could possibly come out in the meantime (except an ill advised NK maybe) that would change anything.

[Telle]

But the problem is that lynching Danny or Chubby doesn't answer anything about the other one anyways. So if we lynch one we could end up spending the next day just talking about the other one then. Not that much difference from if we don't lynch either.

[Autumn]

Telle, yes, I've considered that thought re: Chubby, after his misunderstanding of Lathum's remarks yesterday. I don't see where he could make a similar mistake here though so I feel confident with a vote on Danny.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm considering it, though between the two I have less trust right now in Chubby and there's less risk in lynching him.

I've had the opposite running through my head all afternoon. Something along the lines of it looking like Danny was going down early on and Chubby piles on the suspicion of his "reveal" to buy himself the ultimate trust token.

[Autumn]

I find Bhlloy's vote very interesting, making it 7-6 Danny-Chubby, when we know there is possibilities of vote manipulation from either villagers or wolves or both.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I think if we don't lynch Danny or Chubby today, we're having the exact same conversation tomorrow. I don't know what could possibly come out in the meantime (except an ill advised NK maybe) that would change anything.

The thing is though I think there's a pretty decent chance both of them are telling the truth.

[J23]

With how the vote got screwy yesterday, it's a mistake to not have the lead vote getter ahead by 2 votes. I firmly believe it should be Danny as the lead vote getter today, and hope that people move accordingly. I believe Chubby's story in regards to Danny completely. As for Lathum, I don't know because I have no idea what the item stuff was apparently, but I find it very odd that he doesn't want to say what the item is that he passed to Chubby.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Racer

The thing is though I think there's a pretty decent chance both of them are telling the truth.

I highly, highly doubt this.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I've had the opposite running through my head all afternoon. Something along the lines of it looking like Danny was going down early on and Chubby piles on the suspicion of his "reveal" to buy himself the ultimate trust token.

And this is good too, now bhlloy's making Chubby look bad if Danny turns out bad, instead of himself.

If I had to guess at the wolves right now I would say: Danny, Lathum, Barkeep, bhlloy and someone else.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Telle

But the problem is that lynching Danny or Chubby doesn't answer anything about the other one anyways. So if we lynch one we could end up spending the next day just talking about the other one then. Not that much difference from if we don't lynch either.

If we lynch Danny and he was telling the truth it we're still unsure about Chubby. If we lynch Chubby and he was telling the truth we should still learn the truth about Danny in the near future.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Telle

Btw, just to be open and honest.. I had an item yesterday. Since I had no particular trust for anybody specifically, I let it get reassigned randomly.

Do you care to say what it was? Or rather if it was misstletoe?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I want to know who Hoops is going to pass the misstletoe too

Is there a good reason to post it 40 minutes before deadline? That would give the wolves information for putting in their action. Trying to stop my pass, and forcing it to go random, might not be at the top of their "to do" list, but it is something they want and I would rather not give extra info.

I won't let it go random. I have an order in, and I'll post who that person is as close to the deadline as possible. I'm leaning towards afterwards, since that would prevent any kind of a conditional order based on who I might name in my post. But I'll take opinions on this now if people want to chime in.

[bhlloy]

That's good if you think I'd be stupid enough to make that vote as a wolf, knowing that Danny's fake reveal will be exposed at some point in the game (and probably in a little over 40 mins)

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by mckerney

If we lynch Danny and he was telling the truth it we're still unsure about Chubby. If we lynch Chubby and he was telling the truth we should still learn the truth about Danny in the near future.

My thoughts exactly here. Lynching somebody who has firmly revealed and has not been challenged makes absolutely no sense. It's a waste of a lynch.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Do you care to say what it was? Or rather if it was misstletoe?

It was not mistletoe. It was Thor's hammer.

[Autumn]

Hoops, just post it at 10:01, JAG won't be able to have a write up or anything done by then, but they wont' be able to change orders.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Is there a good reason to post it 40 minutes before deadline? That would give the wolves information for putting in their action. Trying to stop my pass, and forcing it to go random, might not be at the top of their "to do" list, but it is something they want and I would rather not give extra info.

I won't let it go random. I have an order in, and I'll post who that person is as close to the deadline as possible. I'm leaning towards afterwards, since that would prevent any kind of a conditional order based on who I might name in my post. But I'll take opinions on this now if people want to chime in.

FWIW, I plan on saying who I am passing the Gleipnir too at 10:01 just to make sure it's known. I see no reason not to say where it's going.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

And this is good too, now bhlloy's making Chubby look bad if Danny turns out bad, instead of himself.

If I had to guess at the wolves right now I would say: Danny, Lathum, Barkeep, bhlloy and someone else.

My list is pretty different, but it is so early that I'm not up for posting it yet. I want to see how this lynch turns out and go from there. Not my usual MO ... I usually blurt out trust/distrust lists quickly ... but I don't want to get too far ahead of myself with "if this then that" theories when we'll have answers within the next hour.

[Autumn]

That was a rather poor move, Telle, if you let it go random. So you have no idea who got it? Now we can no longer trace it unless a villager comes out tomorrow saying they had it. Better to pass something to somebody you pick randomly than to let JAG pick it randomly (assuming you don't know who it went to).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Hoops, just post it at 10:01, JAG won't be able to have a write up or anything done by then, but they wont' be able to change orders.

I probably won't be here right at that time - have to put my kid to bed - but I'm planning to post it as soon as I'm back in front of the PC.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This is why I passed my item to him, I think it could help against a wolf attack.

I also passed it to him prior to him putting on a tinfoil hat and going crazy on me.

okay here is my thinking on the whole Lathum passing an item to Chubby. This is in response to my comment that I was surprised that Chubby was not the nightkill victim after revealing information like he did. Lathum passed it to him he says in response to that post as well. That's why I was asking if anyone could see an earlier post where Chubby commented about J23 earlier than the one he did at 10pm, which is the lynch/nightkill/passing items deadline. So if Lathum did send it to Chubby in response to that 10pm comment by Chubby, he had to have done immediately after Chubby said it.

Instead he said he sent it before Chubby starting attacking him over the whole duke comment-this could not have happened given that Chubby's J23 comment came much later. Plus if Lathum did send it earlier, I see nothing in the items rules about being able to change your mind on who to send it to. He ended up voting twice for Chubby including his official vote of the day, and then again this morning. He clearly did not trust Chubby by the end of the day, and you don't send an item he thought would protect him from a wolf attack to someone who he now thinks may be a wolf-you change your order and send it to anyone but Chubby in fact.

The hole in my argument is that the wolves would not have had time to put in a nightkill order on Chubby since his comment was at the deadline too and I had forgotten that when I started thinking about Lathum's response to me.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Is there a good reason to post it 40 minutes before deadline? That would give the wolves information for putting in their action. Trying to stop my pass, and forcing it to go random, might not be at the top of their "to do" list, but it is something they want and I would rather not give extra info.

I won't let it go random. I have an order in, and I'll post who that person is as close to the deadline as possible. I'm leaning towards afterwards, since that would prevent any kind of a conditional order based on who I might name in my post. But I'll take opinions on this now if people want to chime in.

In case that person ends up dead.

[Autumn]

I forgot to return to that subject today. Mr.Bug, you believe that your mistletoe killed Dubb? As in you don't think there was a nightkill last night? How strongly do you believe that, and what do you know about how that works?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

yikes, I almost just burned my house down.

Turned on the grill, cleaned it and put my sons burger on. Went into his room for a few minutes to play with him, come out ant there are 4 foot flames shooting up from it, the drip pan had caught fire.

Disconnected the tank and put it out. looks like I am using the flat top tonight.

crap that's scary Lathum, thank the norse gods that you caught in time.

[hoopsguy]

I'm a little worried about a bunch of us targeting the same people for passing, but I don't really know how to manage that publicly without tipping off the wolves to target what they want.

If someone feels strongly that we need to coordinate passes, speak quickly as I've got about 10 minutes to cooperate. Otherwise, I've got my order in and can live with it.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I forgot to return to that subject today. Mr.Bug, you believe that your mistletoe killed Dubb? As in you don't think there was a nightkill last night? How strongly do you believe that, and what do you know about how that works?

I honestly have no idea, but it's supposedly kills the god's. I touched on it in an earlier post, but I'm curious as to how it ended up with Hoopsguy.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

In case that person ends up dead.

Then it goes random, not directly to wolves. Odds are with us on random, and moreso than they were at the start of the game given that the current score is (Dead) Villagers 1, (Dead) Wolves 0.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Autumn

And this is good too, now bhlloy's making Chubby look bad if Danny turns out bad, instead of himself.

If I had to guess at the wolves right now I would say: Danny, Lathum, Barkeep, bhlloy and someone else.

Lathum isn't giving me vibes. This has his strange/aggressive/goofy villager play like he had a few games ago. In my opinion, anyway.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I honestly have no idea, but it's supposedly kills the god's. I touched on it in an earlier post, but I'm curious as to how it ended up with Hoopsguy.

It could be that when dubb got night killed it got reassigned randomly to hoops.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I honestly have no idea, but it's supposedly kills the god's. I touched on it in an earlier post, but I'm curious as to how it ended up with Hoopsguy.

(channeling Ed Hochuli) BY RULE, if a player is killed with an item, it will be randomly assigned to another player.

The exact language can be found in the rules post, but I've swapped PMs with JAG to make sure I understand the passing logic today.

[MrBug708]

Looks like it...guess it was just quite a coincidence that both I and the wolves had a night action on Dubb