Werewolf XCVII - Labyrinth II (GAME OVER - COMMONERS WIN!)

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i think we need a new chart

I'm working on it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think generally the brutal wolf's kill can't be BG-blocked.

By that I mean, it's down to the bg/wolves chessmatch only if we don't kill the brutal -- if we kill the brutal, the seer is just dead no matter what.

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm - Mr. 'Caglia raises an interesting point there. Although there is no guarentee it would buy us another day - Thomkal could still get eaten at night. But it's something to consider.

And yes, we kill Tyrith only if NFG is good of course. Just like we kill RendeR only if Abe is good.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

By that I mean, it's down to the bg/wolves chessmatch only if we don't kill the brutal -- if we kill the brutal, the seer is just dead no matter what.

[DaddyTorgo]

yeah I got what you meant Pass - must say I hadn't considered that. Either way I think we're...2-3 days tops away from ending this thing.

[Thomkal]

So here's where we stand with reveals and role claims:

I. Lathum - blown up by the inferno device night 1 - Ancient of Earth
II. dubb93 - lynched day 1/returned day 2 - Phoenix
III. RendeR-claimed to be protected by the Paladin
IV. ntndeacon-claimed to be Inferno Hunter
V. Autumn-lynched day 2-Nightcrawler
VII. Schmidty-revealed as the Mongol Warrior/removed from the game
VIII. JAG-claiming to be Nightcrawler-is now a known wolf
IX. hoopsguy-claims to be a Telepath
X. lerriuqs-viewed as good from a scan from Martin-has claimed Theseus II (maybe)
XI. Danny-claims to be a telepath
XII. Barkeep49-claims to be Dr. Jekyll/Mr Hyde
XV. MartinD-killed by the wolves-Nostradamus-views as good by Thomkal
XVI. Thomkal-claims to be Mentok, the Mind Taker-the seer
XVII. Passacaglia-claims to be the Minotaur
XVIII. DaddyTorgo-claims to be a Telepath

Unknown Roles:

III. RendeR-claimed to be protected by the Paladin
VI. Abe Sargent
X. lerriuqs-viewed as good from a scan from Martin-claims to be Theseus II (maybe)
XIII. Chief Rum-viewed as good by Thomkal
XIV. Tyrith-claims to be Loki
XIX. nfg22-claims to be Loki

[Thomkal]

Reading through my chart here, I want to throw something out there-I'm assuming JAG is a wolf thanks to his face off with Autumn, but we should keep in mind is the possibility that he is really is Loki or another role that might have had contact with the wolves and cooked this plan up. I find it unlikely that this is the case, but we should consider it just in case.

[Thomkal]

Hey JAG, speak up-who are you really?

[dubb93]

Vote Jag

[DaddyTorgo]

but if JAG was loki then we'd have 3 people claiming to be loki.

and if loki is helping the wolves we want him out of our hair anyways

[hoopsguy]

If someone wanted to counter the Theseus claim they could have done so by now or at least voted on him to rebut his claim. I'm guessing that he is who he says he is.

Ditto the Dr. Jekyl claim from BK.

FBI guy and Paladin are the unclaimed roles.

JAG is one of Wind, Fire, Ice - we'll find out soon enough.

So basically it is
1. JAG
2. Tyrith/NFG
3. Abe/Render

#3 - means that the bad guys attacked themselves on either N1 or N2. Which one makes more sense to you? By the N1 phase we already had a strong start on the COT, but it was blown wide open by N2.

I think that our bad guys are going to be JAG, NFG, and Abe. I'll try to firm up my guesses on these with some thread review, but I'm not all that inclined to post the results of that research since it might help the bad guys narrow down the last remaining roles if they are not super-obvious.

[DaddyTorgo]

I wouldn't worry about it Hoops. I think we have it well enough in hand that posting that is just going to give the bad guys narrow down the last roles.

I'd expect they have their "kill list" pretty well planned out at this point anyways though. And they are somewhat constrained in going after the unknowns because that lowers the pool of potential people whom they could be. Like is it really worth taking out the Paladin if you expose another wolf by virtue of that? I'd have to assume that the smart play for them is trying to get rid of the seer and then eating through the CoT and just hoping they don't run into the BG.

[DaddyTorgo]

"just going to HELP the" not "give the"

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think that our bad guys are going to be JAG, NFG, and Abe. I'll try to firm up my guesses on these with some thread review, but I'm not all that inclined to post the results of that research since it might help the bad guys narrow down the last remaining roles if they are not super-obvious.

On the other hand, by not posting anything until later, don't you run the risk of getting killed before we get to vote on those guys?

[hoopsguy]

I hardly think that I'm a high profile target here.

FBI agent is pretty obvious.

Paladin - if I'm a betting man then I'm guessing that RendeR stayed home with his guard on N1 because he knows he is good ... that seems to be the way many people play the BG role. It definitely seems more likely than Abe ending up guarding RendeR the ancient.

Loki role - worry for tomorrow, but if we are able to leave that as our last wolf we are in pretty good shape.

[Danny]

I pinned the same three as Hoops did and probably for much the same reasons which I am also keeping quiet for now. I'm debating if it might be best just to get it out there though.

[DaddyTorgo]

is there any possible way that path could be a wolf? do the wolves say that minotaur eats wolf? otherwise maybe he's a wolf claiming to be the minotaur and one of the others who we think is a wolf is actually the minotaur and that's how they hope to draw this out?

obviously if the rules don't allow this i'm just insane, but the paranoia wheels in my head were just spinning overtime for a minute so i thought i'd throw that out there

[DaddyTorgo]

errr i said path and i meant pass. silly me

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I hardly think that I'm a high profile target here.

FBI agent is pretty obvious.

Paladin - if I'm a betting man then I'm guessing that RendeR stayed home with his guard on N1 because he knows he is good ... that seems to be the way many people play the BG role. It definitely seems more likely than Abe ending up guarding RendeR the ancient.

Loki role - worry for tomorrow, but if we are able to leave that as our last wolf we are in pretty good shape.

And there it is, this is exactly what I see as well. Render is the BG, there was no reason for someone else as the BG to protect Render night 1. And there has been no dispute/confirmation from anyone else as the BG which would have caught a wolf or cleared two people.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay wow - plenty of typos in my first line

is there any possibility that PASS could be a wolf? Do the RULES say that minotaur eats wolf?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

is there any possible way that path could be a wolf? do the wolves say that minotaur eats wolf? otherwise maybe he's a wolf claiming to be the minotaur and one of the others who we think is a wolf is actually the minotaur and that's how they hope to draw this out?

obviously if the rules don't allow this i'm just insane, but the paranoia wheels in my head were just spinning overtime for a minute so i thought i'd throw that out there

I'd say somewhat possible, but we would know that soon enough and honestly, after we kill off the wolves we should just lynch Pass everyday (who can't be killed) so as to not lose a villager who is trying to get to the middle.

[Danny]

When I say possible, the only way is if the real minotaur was someone like Abe who simply wanted to not help the village. But again, not likely.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, if we think that JAG = brutal and we are sure enough about our logic then we could go another direction. But we would be giving up a sure thing for a target I consider a smidge less certain.

I think this game is going to stretch into early next week without a whole heck of a lot of drama unless something hinky happens with the map.

D3 (today) - kill 2nd wolf
D4 (Friday) - kill 3rd wolf
D5 (Monday) - I'm guessing we get wolf #4 here but maybe it goes to
D6 (Tuesday) - game over by this point at latest

If we are playing a 9x9 grid, with two moves per day, and no direct path to middle, then I wonder if there is even enough time for someone to get to the center while eluding the Minotaur?

[Danny]

And as to the cunning discussion, there is no cunning wolf. This is not a game of hidden mechanics and it is not listed in the roles. I also happen to know that Jackal hates cunning wolves.

[DaddyTorgo]

that was just my "pie in the sky" paranoid moment for this game is all. i doubt it frankly.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

okay wow - plenty of typos in my first line

is there any possibility that PASS could be a wolf? Do the RULES say that minotaur eats wolf?

No. Yes.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If we are playing a 9x9 grid, with two moves per day, and no direct path to middle, then I wonder if there is even enough time for someone to get to the center while eluding the Minotaur?

Do you mean an 18x18 grid? 9x9 seems pretty small.

[Danny]

I'm alright with changing up the lynch order. We have Jag as a for sure wolf, but I think our logic will end up correct. I am ok with a NFG lynch because I would want to lynch Loki right after the wolves were found anyway just to be safe.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Danny

And there it is, this is exactly what I see as well. Render is the BG, there was no reason for someone else as the BG to protect Render night 1. And there has been no dispute/confirmation from anyone else as the BG which would have caught a wolf or cleared two people.

I agree Danny, I thought it odd the wolves would go after Render, and wondered if he was just protecting himself. I think if someone else was the Paladin they would have come out by now despite their role. I mean it gives us another wolf if Render is not the Paladin-one that we can vote for now instead of the suspected brutal JAG.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Do you mean an 18x18 grid? 9x9 seems pretty small.

How big was Abe's grid in Dungeon? I didn't play that one so I'm bad with the details on it.

Although I haven't had anyone in my space yet it certainly seems that people are encountering one another. I don't think that would be happening in an 18x18 grid with any kind of frequency.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

How big was Abe's grid in Dungeon? I didn't play that one so I'm bad with the details on it.

Although I haven't had anyone in my space yet it certainly seems that people are encountering one another. I don't think that would be happening in an 18x18 grid with any kind of frequency.

I'm not sure if he ever gave out the map. But a 9x9 grid means that if you're at an edge (not a corner), you'd be at the center in 4 moves, with maybe an extra move or two for some turns. That's 3 days, and is crazy. 18x18 does seem too big, but I just thought that's what you meant instead of 9x9 (that you were thinking of 9 as the distance from center to edge, not from edge to edge).

[hoopsguy]

I think it would be pretty bad luck for Render to not be the Paladin and not have been picked up on a 50% scan.

We'll either have a 100% scan or a 50% scan (or both) tomorrow to add onto what we already know. With that in mind, we really should have this one nailed down very quickly.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure if he ever gave out the map. But a 9x9 grid means that if you're at an edge (not a corner), you'd be at the center in 4 moves, with maybe an extra move or two for some turns. That's 3 days, and is crazy. 18x18 does seem too big, but I just thought that's what you meant instead of 9x9 (that you were thinking of 9 as the distance from center to edge, not from edge to edge).

Well, I'm guessing that there are no direct paths, that traps slow people up, and that backtracking would need to take place. I'm inclined to think that we are looking at no bigger than 12x12 but I guess that remains one of the few mysteries at this point.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

How big was Abe's grid in Dungeon? I didn't play that one so I'm bad with the details on it.

Although I haven't had anyone in my space yet it certainly seems that people are encountering one another. I don't think that would be happening in an 18x18 grid with any kind of frequency.

Mine was 13x13

My ride arrives in a couple o fminutes and I'll be out for a long time.

[RendeR]

Hoops and Danny are absolutely correct.

I am the Paladin, I protected myself night 1 because I really didn't see anyone else as sure enough of a thing to protect them instead of me. I was attacked by the Ancient of Ice and my shield protected me.

I protected someone else last night and there was no attempt on that person. (not going to say who right now)

Good puzzling guys.

Our wolves seem pretty 0bvious at this point, we might as well get all the roles out and just shitcan the wolves over the next 3 days and end this thing.

[RendeR]

Vote JAG

[Thomkal]

hey Paladin!

Okay Chief Rum I think its okay to claim your role now. As in its the last one left anyway.

[Thomkal]

okay then does this mean we should go for Abe tonight instead of JAG to try to avoid the brutal wolf? Do we feel that confident in everyone's roles now?

[hoopsguy]

UNVOTE JAG
VOTE ABE

I'm willing to give this a go.

[Danny]

Me too

Unvote Jag
Vote Abe

[Passacaglia]

Same here.


UNVOTE NFG22
VOTE ABE SARGENT

[Danny]

chief should vote for nfg and then attempt to scan him and then assuming we don't hit the brutal hopefully one of CR/Thomkal gets a scan and then we know for sure who to hit out of nfg/tyrith.

[Tyrith]

Makes sense to me.

UNVOTE NFG
VOTE ABE

[RendeR]

Why not

UNVOTE JAG

VOTE ABE

[The Jackal]

JAG 7 (nfg 662, BK 679, DT 704, Abe 722, ntn 783, Thomkal 788, dubb 809)
Abe 5 (hoops 839, Danny 840, Pass 841, Tyrith 843, RendeR 844)

[Tyrith]

Missing CR and JAG, looks like?

[The Jackal]

And lerriuqs.

[Tyrith]

Ah, good ol' backwards squirrel.

[Tyrith]

Gone till after lynch, most likely.

[Danny]

I'm out until after lynch, hopefully some more switches to Abe, but don't let this be a tie.