Werewolf LXXV - Rise of the Great Old Ones -Students Win!!!!

[hoopsguy]

Axxon, take your time to make the right call. I initially tried to leave some confusion over the seer in the thread, but it was pretty clear both from the PM and from Alan's posts + vote that the wolves are not confused as to the identity of the seer.

I'm still not looking to draw them a map to my role, if I can avoid doing so.

[hoopsguy]

Vote count:

Alan - Hoops (894), Racer (724), KWhit (779)
Racer - Alan (702), RendeR (741)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

No, it is me being a little paranoid about the direction your posts are taking. I know we are getting a wolf when you are lynched. I'm hoping you have any role besides cunning because that would muddle things up for tomorrow.

If you were really worried about this as a possibility, you would offer your own self up to be lynched to prove your story. Since obviously if I was this great role you are trying to tell everyone that I am , and I show up as a villager when I die, it would only get the seer killed.. Since your supposed role that you claim to have only seems to have any power when the seer is alive, wouldn't you want to sacrifice yourself to prove your story?

You obviously aren't willing to do so, and this is your chance to try to kill me.. so that is why you haven't offered that to the masses.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Axxon, take your time to make the right call. I initially tried to leave some confusion over the seer in the thread, but it was pretty clear both from the PM and from Alan's posts + vote that the wolves are not confused as to the identity of the seer.

I'm still not looking to draw them a map to my role, if I can avoid doing so.

Translated: Axxon, take your time to make the right call. I initially tried to confuse you in the thread, but it became pretty clear from Alan's reveal that he knew who attacked him.

[oliegirl]

Gah...not sure what to think. I'd really like to know more about Hoops role and how it is he knows all this when he's not the seer. But, I understand that giving that info at this point could be really really bad...so the question is, do I trust Hoops enough to take his word on Alan being a wolf?

Do we have an updated vote count?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If you were really worried about this as a possibility, you would offer your own self up to be lynched to prove your story. Since obviously if I was this great role you are trying to tell everyone that I am , and I show up as a villager when I die, it would only get the seer killed.. Since your supposed role that you claim to have only seems to have any power when the seer is alive, wouldn't you want to sacrifice yourself to prove your story?

You obviously aren't willing to do so, and this is your chance to try to kill me.. so that is why you haven't offered that to the masses.

My thought is that same as yours, Alan. Voting hoops seems like the best play.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[EagleFan]

This has turned out to be an interesting morning. I don't know who to trust at this point (sort of) but will take my best crack at this as we basically have two scenerios:

1) hoops it telling the truth. If this is the case we are suddenly in better shape than we thought as we now have a growing CoT. If he is telling the truth it clears up a major question that I had about my role and certain limitations I was given but has also given me reason to doubt my results. This also gives some voting history to pour over to see where alan was voting and if anyone was voting with him. We also need to protect racer that this point, as best we can.

2) hoops is lying. Timing does seem odd that he would cme right out with this. Why would he out himself and racer to the wolves when he could have tried to influence the vote in other ways without an outrght reveal and only reveal if needed? If there was an attack on alan that was defended, or blocked, why would he come out and fake reveal? We are down three right now. A fake reveal to get ahead of the game may sacrifice two wolves but if one is the brutal it could be a 3-2 exchange (if they get night kills the next two nights). This seems like a lot to give up unless alan has a vital role that the wolves need to eliminate.



Neither play seems like a great play IMHO. I guess there is also a third:

3) All three are wolves and sacrificing alan (brutal) would appear to put two wolves right in the middle of everyone's CoT. If that is the case the game could be easily manipulated as they would have an early lead on us and be the ones calling the shots as any other seer reveals would be treated as fake by the masses.



The only problem that I have with believing hoops is that it would seem to be too coordinated of a plan and that would involve outside communication. To my knowledge it has always been wolves with outside communication unless specified differently (but I have played only a handful of games).



Damn, overthinking has confused me even more. Options 1 and 2 are very straight forward which means we chose one side to believe today and of that's wrong we go after the other side. Option 3 adds a lot of grey area. One simple statement about alan and hoops being on the same side, and the response today basically saying "see, they're not" is what makes option 3 a little more viable.

[Axxon]

One more thing is bothering me.

I did have something pretty odd that I received a PM about last night, and to no suprise it came from the person who was probably one of my most distrusted people on my list. I assume it was some form of mental attack that I fought off. Oddly enough, it wasn't Hoopsguy who did it, but instead it was Racer. My PM said that he knows that I knew he tried to invade my thoughts as well.

If we are to believe that Alan T outed the seer then we need to believe that the seer can PM wolves and worse, the wolves know this so it kinda makes it a crappy role since it didn't really hurt him and it outed him for sure.

I'd say either Alan T is lying about the PM and you jumped the gun in thinking he'd outed the seer ( if we believe you ) or Alan T was telling the truth about the PM.

That brings me around to the Bearer of the Necronomicon. Anyone who would bear that book in the Mythos would clearly trend towards madness and not be someone I'd trust. It strikes me as believable that he'd have a psychic connection to the wolves; think souped up sorcerer, one that can PM them so they don't kill him.

I guess, that PM may make hoops a liar but in my book it doesn't clear Alan either since that sounds like a reasonable power for that role.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If you were really worried about this as a possibility, you would offer your own self up to be lynched to prove your story. Since obviously if I was this great role you are trying to tell everyone that I am , and I show up as a villager when I die, it would only get the seer killed.. Since your supposed role that you claim to have only seems to have any power when the seer is alive, wouldn't you want to sacrifice yourself to prove your story?

You obviously aren't willing to do so, and this is your chance to try to kill me.. so that is why you haven't offered that to the masses.

This is one of your worst posts of the day. Offer myself up to prove you are a wolf? People may decide to go in that direction with their votes, but why would I offer to do that when I'm 100% vouching that you are a wolf?

I would take the approach that I am taking - kill Alan, come back for me if he shows up as a villager. In the unlikely event that you are the cunning wolf I'll go down next and then people will see two villagers dead. But I think it is 90% likely that you die as the wolf you are and that we move along with the remainder of the game, free from this distraction.

[KWhit]

I don't know what to believe about Hoops, but it seems to me that it's an easy play to at worst get a 1-1 or maybe even a 2-1 wolf/villager lynch trade-off which is awesome for us.

It doesn't make sense for Hoops to come out and accuse Alan for no good reason if Hoops is a wolf and Alan a villager. There is no scenario that I can come up with that makes that a good play for Hoops to make.

So something else is going on.

And the most plausible explanation is that AlanT is a wolf and we should vote for him.

[Telle]

Where's all this "cunning wolf" stuff coming from?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This is one of your worst posts of the day. Offer myself up to prove you are a wolf? People may decide to go in that direction with their votes, but why would I offer to do that when I'm 100% vouching that you are a wolf?

I would take the approach that I am taking - kill Alan, come back for me if he shows up as a villager. In the unlikely event that you are the cunning wolf I'll go down next and then people will see two villagers dead. But I think it is 90% likely that you die as the wolf you are and that we move along with the remainder of the game, free from this distraction.

But that is what I have been saying all along, I have no problem with people killing me, finding out that I am a villager and then going after Racer next as you appear to trying to protect him. You're the one who keeps trying to muddy the waters with talk of what to do when I turn up as a villager or a way to figure out the next step once everyone sees that i am good.

I am only pointing out the flaw in your logic where you obviously are not concerned about it since you know the truth that I am good already. It just is obvious to everyone else in cases like this where your actions speak louder than your words. It is important for everyone when encountering someone like you (whom has self-admitedly talked your way out of many lynches as an exposed wolf), that they make sure to see what your actions are moreso than just your words.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Telle

Where's all this "cunning wolf" stuff coming from?

Hoops threw it out as what the future explanation will be when I turn up good at this lynch.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hoops threw it out as what the future explanation will be when I turn up good at this lynch.

Ahh. I don't think I've ever even seen a game with a cunning wolf. Just seems odd to bring it up when we don't even know the wolf roles.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I don't know what to believe about Hoops, but it seems to me that it's an easy play to at worst get a 1-1 or maybe even a 2-1 wolf/villager lynch trade-off which is awesome for us.

It doesn't make sense for Hoops to come out and accuse Alan for no good reason if Hoops is a wolf and Alan a villager. There is no scenario that I can come up with that makes that a good play for Hoops to make.

So something else is going on.

And the most plausible explanation is that AlanT is a wolf and we should vote for him.

I can't tell you what thoughts are going through Hoops's mind right now but I am assuming the following:

1) Hoops knows he is often an early seer scan and likely will be outed anyways soon
2) Hoops found that an attack on me failed and is concerned that I can't be night killed
3) Hoops makes a story up to try to get me killed in a 1 for 1 swap that would take out a villager that posts alot and one that they couldn't kill plus only cost them a wolf who likely would be outed in the first few days anyways.
4) Hoops realizes wrongly that I actually knew who attacked me and had to come up with a new story

[KWhit]

What could be happening here is that Hoops and Alan are both wolves.

1) Racer scans Alan and Alan knows he's outed. He PMs the other wolves to tell them the bad news.
2) The wolves decide to make the best of the situation and try to get Hoops into a CoT by having him dream up a role that doesn't exist and be the one to out Alan.

So, even if we lynch Alan and he turns out to be a wolf, we can't just blindly assume that Hoops is good.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not concerned about "Alan is a villager" scenarios because there are none.

KWhit understands the situation properly. Pass is either overthinking it or deliberately trying to muddy the waters. I'm not sure what Telle is doing and I'm wondering when RendeR is coming back to reply to my post where we were going to work together to build trust.

Telle, the "cunning wolf" stuff probably isn't worth worrying too much about ... Alan is now using this as a distraction to the core of the issue.



Either Alan is lying or I am lying - it is up to the rest of you to figure out who.

Everything else is just a distraction from this fundamental point.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

But that is what I have been saying all along, I have no problem with people killing me, finding out that I am a villager and then going after Racer next as you appear to trying to protect him. You're the one who keeps trying to muddy the waters with talk of what to do when I turn up as a villager or a way to figure out the next step once everyone sees that i am good.

I am only pointing out the flaw in your logic where you obviously are not concerned about it since you know the truth that I am good already. It just is obvious to everyone else in cases like this where your actions speak louder than your words. It is important for everyone when encountering someone like you (whom has self-admitedly talked your way out of many lynches as an exposed wolf), that they make sure to see what your actions are moreso than just your words.

That's why I think a vote for hoops is a good compromise. Hoops is worried about Alan turning up villager, which would make us go after Racer. So why not vote hoops today; hoops good = Alan tomorrow, hoops bad == Racer tomorrow?

[hoopsguy]

So now Alan can't be night-killed. Yep, wolves usually can't night-kill their own. More distractions from the fundamental point in my last post.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Telle, the "cunning wolf" stuff probably isn't worth worrying too much about ... Alan is now using this as a distraction to the core of the issue.

How am I using that as a distraction, when you were the one suggesting it???

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So now Alan can't be night-killed. Yep, wolves usually can't night-kill their own. More distractions from the fundamental point in my last post.

Did Racer just trip on the way in or something I guess?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's why I think a vote for hoops is a good compromise. Hoops is worried about Alan turning up villager, which would make us go after Racer. So why not vote hoops today; hoops good = Alan tomorrow, hoops bad == Racer tomorrow?

I could get on board with this. It also works in the case where we're looking at two wolves fighting and trying to put one (hoops) into a CoT.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

...I'm wondering when RendeR is coming back to reply to my post where we were going to work together to build trust.

He has tennis this morning. He should be back around 2pm when he gets to work.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's why I think a vote for hoops is a good compromise. Hoops is worried about Alan turning up villager, which would make us go after Racer. So why not vote hoops today; hoops good = Alan tomorrow, hoops bad == Racer tomorrow?

Because you give yourself zero opportunity to get a wolf the first time under this scenario.

I'm 100% on the same team as Racer and the opposite team as Alan. I won't dispute this in the least and it doesn't sound like Alan is either. So you can go this route if you don't believe my version of events. But you are losing a day.

If you are a villager who is thinking about believing Alan in this case then you are just being greedy - he isn't able to offer up two wolves. But Racer and I are able to offer up one wolf - Alan. It is a good start in a game where we have fallen behind early. Don't put us one day further behind by chasing Alan's version of events where he gives you two wolves and can't be night-killed. You'll be able to rectify it a day later, but you'll be sacrificing a villager role in the process (either me or Racer).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

How am I using that as a distraction, when you were the one suggesting it???

By continuing to bring up what was a somewhat paranoid musing on my part. You are tapping into this as a means to distract people from the issue that it really is "you versus me" today.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's why I think a vote for hoops is a good compromise. Hoops is worried about Alan turning up villager, which would make us go after Racer. So why not vote hoops today; hoops good = Alan tomorrow, hoops bad == Racer tomorrow?

But we pretty much get a 2 for 1 scenario if Hoops is lying. We lynch AlanT today, if he is good, then we lynch Hoops tomorrow and it would seem that Racer is a wolf too and we can lynch him the next day. All of that seems unlikely, but if true, hell, I'll take it!

I believe it's more likely that AlanT is a wolf, so we go after him today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because you give yourself zero opportunity to get a wolf the first time under this scenario.

I agree, but it gives ourselves zero chance of getting burned by a strange wolf role.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because you give yourself zero opportunity to get a wolf the first time under this scenario.

I'm 100% on the same team as Racer and the opposite team as Alan. I won't dispute this in the least and it doesn't sound like Alan is either. So you can go this route if you don't believe my version of events. But you are losing a day.

Racer has not confirmed this, BTW, so we don't know this for sure. It's possible that you and Alan are both wolves.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I agree, but it gives ourselves zero chance of getting burned by a strange wolf role.

What kind of strange wolf role are you envisioning?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

By continuing to bring up what was a somewhat paranoid musing on my part. You are tapping into this as a means to distract people from the issue that it really is "you versus me" today.

Aren't you the one that is continuing to bring it up by saying things like this? All I am doing is responding. It wasn't my idea, I just responded to say how crazy you are being and hoping that no one actually believes all of the sensational stories that you are providing as your explanations. You started off by suggesting that people vote with what seems the simplest explanation, and once you and everyone realized that my explanation was actually the simplest you suddenly left that approach.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Racer has not confirmed this, BTW, so we don't know this for sure. It's possible that you and Alan are both wolves.

I'm pretty sure to the point of 99.9% that they are both on the same team if it helps things here I don't see any other way how Racer can fail to kill me and Hoopsguy magically know about it before Racer even logs in during the morning.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What kind of strange wolf role are you envisioning?

The one hoops mentioned -- he's worried that Alan is a wolf who will turn up villager on death. If that's the case, then after lynching Alan, we'd lynch Racer tomorrow -- which, if hoops is telling the truth, is bad for the village.

[oliegirl]

Deadline isn't until 9 pm tonight, right????

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm pretty sure to the point of 99.9% that they are both on the same team if it helps things here I don't see any other way how Racer can fail to kill me and Hoopsguy magically know about it before Racer even logs in during the morning.

Well... You're the only one who has said that he tried to kill you (I think). I think another possibility is that he seer-scanned you.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Deadline isn't until 9 pm tonight, right????

I believe so, yes

[hoopsguy]

Ugh - the simplest explanation is that two villagers, one of whom is the seer, caught a wolf last night who was a likely target for a scan.

You aren't counter-claiming seer here, but instead now claiming you can't be night-killed. That is definitely less likely than you were scanned and bad.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, your argument is predicated on the idea that both Racer and I are wolves. There is no way that I would give up two wolves (including me) to get one villager in a game where we are up 3-0. Potentially more than that if there was a conversion last night.
That is about as simple as I can make it.

Blood on the floor lends me to think attack rather than conversion.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Well... You're the only one who has said that he tried to kill you (I think). I think another possibility is that he seer-scanned you.

If by possibility you mean absolutely what happened, then this is correct.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The one hoops mentioned -- he's worried that Alan is a wolf who will turn up villager on death. If that's the case, then after lynching Alan, we'd lynch Racer tomorrow -- which, if hoops is telling the truth, is bad for the village.

No way we lynch Racer tomorrow, IMO. If Alan turns up good, we lynch Hoops tomorrow.

It's very clear to me that if Alan is good, Hoops is bad.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Well... You're the only one who has said that he tried to kill you (I think). I think another possibility is that he seer-scanned you.

Ok, if you believe Hoops's story then fine, but either way Hoops knew the result of the night action before Racer logged in. I can confirm that it was Racer who attacked me from my PM.. so the only logical correlation to me is they both get the same night pm. Obviously from both of their actions today, it is pretty obvious even without Racer admitting it that Hoops did get the same PM as him. Doesn't really matter who's story you believe (hoops or mine), I think all of the evidence shows Racer and Hoops both are on the same team.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

Blood on the floor lends me to think attack rather than conversion.

I would be ecstatic if there was a failed attack last night on the same night that a wolf was scanned. But I don't have a way of knowing this.

[KWhit]

I'm out for a bit while I attend a couple of meetings but will be back online in an hour or so....

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by KWhit

No way we lynch Racer tomorrow, IMO. If Alan turns up good, we lynch Hoops tomorrow.

It's very clear to me that if Alan is good, Hoops is bad.

Give this man a cigar.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Blood on the floor lends me to think attack rather than conversion.

Really? Don't people lose blood when becoming werewolves? Or is that just vampires?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Blood on the floor lends me to think attack rather than conversion.

Thank you! I guess I didn't think about re-reading the official day post from Schmidty as I had information from my PM and then came on here to see Hoops lie about me...

Hopefully this helps people see that I might just be telling the truth after all.

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Another night has passed, and you actually see some rays of sunshine streaming through the unbreakable windows, but it does little to lighten the mood after the events of the past two days.

After the death of the Jackal the first night, you fear the worst. Grimly, you search the Library, but find no bodies. You do, however, find a large pool of fresh blood in the basement.

Confused panic ensues. What the hell is going on?

Day 3 has begun. The deadline is at 9 p.m. EST

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ok, if you believe Hoops's story then fine, but either way Hoops knew the result of the night action before Racer logged in. I can confirm that it was Racer who attacked me from my PM.. so the only logical correlation to me is they both get the same night pm. Obviously from both of their actions today, it is pretty obvious even without Racer admitting it that Hoops did get the same PM as him. Doesn't really matter who's story you believe (hoops or mine), I think all of the evidence shows Racer and Hoops both are on the same team.

I strongly disagree. If you and Hoops are both wolves, it would be very easy for you to tell Hoops in PM that Racer scanned you. Hoops and Racer DO NOT have to be on the same team.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I would be ecstatic if there was a failed attack last night on the same night that a wolf was scanned. But I don't have a way of knowing this.

You know as well as I do that there was a failed attack last night!

[EagleFan]

I am really concerned with the all are wolves theory now. The more the either or arguemnt is being pushed the more I wonder about that. Maybe overthinking though.

Some things I don't get (please correct me if I am wrong and missed something trying to catch up with this):

1) alan is a cunning wolf idea: I thought when this happens it's that they scan as good, not that they come up good when killed.

2) alan can't be night killed? hoops acts shocked by this possibility but it happened in the last game I was in so it is still a possibility

3) hoops has some unknown role: he freely outs the seer but can't tell us what he is?

4) alan survived the attack: what ability do you have to survive the attack? what is your role? if you were attacked why not put the cards on the table at this point.

5) either alan or hoops: Whenever someone tries to push that belief I tend to question both


I liked the first two nights voting a little better when my vote choice was made for me: save my own ass


What if racer is the seer and both alan and hoops are wolves? If we believe hoops and lynch alan we may have a wolf in our CoT. If that is the case I would be all for a scan of hoops. If we lynch hoops we go after racer next and end up lynching the seer for the wolves so they don't have to worry about getting through BG. This puts alan back up for lynching and that tells me that he may be the brutal in this case.


There are suddenly a lot of ways to look at this one.

[Alan T]

ok, away for a few minutes to get some lunch while Hoopsguy is coming up with a story to try to explain my blood all over the floor.

[hoopsguy]

Eagle, I'm just surprised it took Alan as long as it did to make the "I can't be killed at night" claim. I'm not shocked by the claim.

Again, fundamental question - do you believe Alan or me? Make up your minds and vote accordingly. Everything else is sleight of hand.