WW LII -- Clue (SOCIALITES WIN)

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

No.

This would have been really good to know in the rules. It had a bearing on 10+ pages of discussion.

[st.cronin]

2nd game in a row lynched day 2 as a villager. Sigh.

[st.cronin]

Clues: Murder was not committed in the attic, nor with the hammer or poison.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

This would have been really good to know in the rules. It had a bearing on 10+ pages of discussion.

It was in the rules.

[Passacaglia]

Each wolf submits a kill by naming the socialite he or she wants to kill, and a room to look for that person in.

The murderer chooses one socialite to kill per night, and does not need to find them in a certain room.

From the rules.

[Passacaglia]

Oh, and we've got deadline!

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

It was in the rules.

I see that it infers that they can only kill socialites. I guess I just assumed they could kill whomever they chose since everyone is assumed to be a socialite until proven otherwise.

and BK, why the heck didn't you mention this if it was that clear to you? I'm stubborn and all but if someone had pointed this out it would have removed a large portion of my ranting on and on for two days.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I see that it infers that they can only kill socialites. I guess I just assumed they could kill whomever they chose since everyone is assumed to be a socialite until proven otherwise.

and BK, why the heck didn't you mention this if it was that clear to you? I'm stubborn and all but if someone had pointed this out it would have removed a large portion of my ranting on and on for two days.

To be honest, I thought it was far different than what you were going at. You were going at the idea of whether the wolves and the murderer want to help each other, which I think is left unresolved by the rules. I tend to think so, but it seemed to me you were getting at a different point since their not directly being able to harm each other didn't mean that they are going to be helpful to each other.

[Barkeep49]

Not to mention I vowed to keep a lower profile on Days 1 and 2 and was already being called a fool by you on another matter. Didn't see the value in starting in on a different area.

[Passacaglia]

VOTE COUNT

Barkeep49 1-- st.cronin (584)
path12 1 -- RendeR (694)
saldana 3-- Alan T (606), LoneStarGirl (658), ntndeacon (776)
st.cronin 10 -- Crim (510), oliegirl (579), Barkeep49 (591), saldana (598), Neon_Chaos (682), SnDvls (759), Telle (769), Chief Rum (775), DaddyTorgo (778), path12 (782)
No Lynch 1 -- Swaggs (662)

The clues seem to be in, and in the minds of most, they point to st.cronin. The socialites gather together, making up their minds, and decide for the first time to lynch a member of their party, the shady-looking, uncooperative, st.cronin. They use a variety of weapons laying around to beat him to death. Looking through his belongings, they find a bloody hammer. It appears he used this to kill Mr. Boddy! Examining the hammer further, it appears to have come from the attic. st.cronin killed Mr. Boddy with the Hammer in the Attic! Feeling good about yourselves, you gather all your things and get ready to go, only to hear a blood-curdling scream. You run to the Kitchen, where you find that oliegirl has been eaten by wolves. A disgusting sight. Looking through her belongings, you find all sorts of military paraphernalia, mostly relating to the Far East. oliegirl was Col. Mustard!

Apologies to st.cronin for giving him such a tough time. I thought his victory conditions were difficult, but I didn't think he would have so much trouble just staying alive. But hey, it's my first game, and sometimes people just don't do what you expect them to (I mean, come on, some of them even willfully ignored the rules of the game ). Anyway, from this point on, Mr. Green does not need to submit a scan, and all you need to submit to me each night is a room to stay in.

PMs coming out shortly.

[RendeR]

My apologies.

[Passacaglia]

By the way, my apology was not meant to railroad discussion -- I'd love to discuss the finer points of the game, but hopefully we all can put it off until the game is over!

[st.cronin]

Pulling for the wolves from here on out. Good luck, guys.

[ntndeacon]

Looks like it is the old good news bad news story there.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I'm relieved to see that the murderer is out of the way so we can focus on a team victory.

I am NOT relieved, however, to see that they hit upon the BG. I didn't have OG on my radar at all for a role and so if that was intuition on the wolves part that was a well done kill.

We've now had two nights of just one kill each night. Do we think that means that they're doing the coverage attack or are targeting 3 people and have just hit 1 each night?

[oliegirl]

Couldn't you have at least given me a nice bloodless death somehow so I'd look pretty at my funeral???

Good luck villagers!!!!

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok I'm relieved to see that the murderer is out of the way so we can focus on a team victory.

I am NOT relieved, however, to see that they hit upon the BG. I didn't have OG on my radar at all for a role and so if that was intuition on the wolves part that was a well done kill.

We've now had two nights of just one kill each night. Do we think that means that they're doing the coverage attack or are targeting 3 people and have just hit 1 each night?

There were two kills the first night.

[RendeR]

I think he means by the wolves, we can assume one of the first night kills was cronin.

[Telle]

And it's almost a 50/50 chance that they get a named socialite verses an unnamed socialite.. so it's not THAT impressive that they managed to get Col. Mustard.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Telle

There were two kills the first night.

true but only one by the wolves. Lathum was killed by cronin.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I think he means by the wolves, we can assume one of the first night kills was cronin.

Oh, yeah, that makes sense. Forgive me, I'm not thinking too clearly atm.

[RendeR]

Yeah its just bad freaking luck that they nailed the BG.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

List of players:

1. Lathum -- killed by the murderer Night 1, Socialite

this is what post one says

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Clues: Murder was not committed in the attic, nor with the hammer or poison.

LOL funny stuff here

[Passacaglia]

PMs have been sent out. Of course, now that the murderer is dead, I didn't bother to send out clues. Day 3 ends Friday, 6 PM Eastern.

I'm not sure how much I'll be on this evening. I got a job offer today, so I'm going out to celebrate!

[SnDvls]

dola - there is also no advantage for Ms. Peacock to remain nameless either, but I'll let that player come out if they so choose.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

PMs have been sent out. Of course, now that the murderer is dead, I didn't bother to send out clues. Day 3 ends Friday, 6 PM Eastern.

I'm not sure how much I'll be on this evening. I got a job offer today, so I'm going out to celebrate!

Congrats on the offer!.

[Neon_Chaos]

I'm assuming that ollie was hit because she was hinting an attack at me.

I noticed that.

It's time for the wolfhunt to begin.

[Neon_Chaos]

dola

I meant, hinting on voting for me. Which would lead to pointing the finger at me, lynching me today.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

PMs have been sent out. Of course, now that the murderer is dead, I didn't bother to send out clues. Day 3 ends Friday, 6 PM Eastern.

I'm not sure how much I'll be on this evening. I got a job offer today, so I'm going out to celebrate!

Congrats!

[saldana]

hopefully now that cronin came up dirty, that should show you all that i am just another nameless socialite...i know it has been discussed that the wolves should have killed the murderer, but i never really thought that made alot of sense...they need the ratio, and the murderer would get them closer to it, so his kills were helping them. i gave the last clue to hang him, which i do concede, was when it was only a three horse race left, but i did give the last nail in the coffin

with that, i have nothing but the duplicate clue to go on for tomorrow, so

vote alan t

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

dola - there is also no advantage for Ms. Peacock to remain nameless either, but I'll let that player come out if they so choose.

Actually, there is. The wolves still don't know who that person is, so if they vote for them in a lynch, we'll have a pretty good idea who they are. If anyone votes for Peacock, they are either a wolf or a named socialite. And hopefulyl Miss Scarlett wouldn't let us lynch a named socialite.

[Neon_Chaos]

This is the scenario I'm talking about with regards to Ms. Scarlett.

15 players left.

3 villagers dead

1 skilled villager dead

1 bad guy dead

Which leaves

5 skilled villagers alive.

If Scarlett were to reveal herself and the 4 other remaining skilled villagers (without revealing roles), that's five innocent people whose votes everyone can rally on.

A villager then names Peacock correctly, and Peacock reveals herself to confirm that the villager is saying the truth. That makes it 6 votes.

There are probably 3-4 wolves, correct?

The seer could probably name people who aren't wolves to add to the confirmed villagers.

I'm sure someone can do the math of how effective this strategy might work.

We'll have 6 confirmed good guys, the seer will probably add a couple more. Then we'll have about 7-8 people to choose from to lynch each night.

The wolves can try to spead their night kills, giving them the chance to hit more people at a smaller attempt %... but basically, we can win this one.

Can anyone point out if there's a flaw in my reasoning?

[Neon_Chaos]

oops, that's supposed to say 2 unskilled villagers dead up top.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by saldana

hopefully now that cronin came up dirty, that should show you all that i am just another nameless socialite...i know it has been discussed that the wolves should have killed the murderer, but i never really thought that made alot of sense...they need the ratio, and the murderer would get them closer to it, so his kills were helping them. i gave the last clue to hang him, which i do concede, was when it was only a three horse race left, but i did give the last nail in the coffin

with that, i have nothing but the duplicate clue to go on for tomorrow, so

vote alan t

nice. another Pleasant Valley Sunday and all that. Guess I was just one-game off about Cronin being bad.

as far as tomorrow, nothing has changed in my mind from before. I think we go saldana then alan.

VOTE SALDANA

[Neon_Chaos]

If Scarlett were to reveal herlsef and the named socialites (seeing as how the murderer is out of the question, sure the wolves will try to get a 1/5 chance to hit the seer after the reveal), I would gladly name Peacock.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

This is the scenario I'm talking about with regards to Ms. Scarlett.

15 players left.

3 villagers dead

1 skilled villager dead

1 bad guy dead

Which leaves

5 skilled villagers alive.

If Scarlett were to reveal herself and the 4 other remaining skilled villagers (without revealing roles), that's five innocent people whose votes everyone can rally on.

A villager then names Peacock correctly, and Peacock reveals herself to confirm that the villager is saying the truth. That makes it 6 votes.

There are probably 3-4 wolves, correct?

The seer could probably name people who aren't wolves to add to the confirmed villagers.

I'm sure someone can do the math of how effective this strategy might work.

We'll have 6 confirmed good guys, the seer will probably add a couple more. Then we'll have about 7-8 people to choose from to lynch each night.

The wolves can try to spead their night kills, giving them the chance to hit more people at a smaller attempt %... but basically, we can win this one.

Can anyone point out if there's a flaw in my reasoning?

seems fairly sound to me? but i'm a bit woozy from my 2 mile hike home.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

If Scarlett were to reveal herlsef and the named socialites (seeing as how the murderer is out of the question, sure the wolves will try to get a 1/5 chance to hit the seer after the reveal), I would gladly name Peacock.

How come you get to be the one to name Peacock??

[Neon_Chaos]

Other than to protect the Seer and Mrs. White, there is no valid reason for Scarlett to remain hidden with her info. The wolves will try to kill the seer, but the seer could give the info beforehand. Mrs. White is in no danger at all, and would probably gladly reveal her role, and then night-kill one of the unconfirmed, just to trim down the unconfirmed list.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Telle

How come you get to be the one to name Peacock??

You want to name her after Scarlett reveals? Go ahead. I'm going to be voting in line with whoever Scarlett reveals to be the good guys anyway. That'll make 7 legit good guys in my book.

[Neon_Chaos]

The biggie here is that the good guys have to commit to a solid unwavering vote. Regardless if we hit a villager, because it's the only way we can separate the wolves from the villagers among the unconfirmed.

[Alan T]

Just got home. Glad I was right about Cronin pretty much all along. I am guessing that it is pretty likely that the seer scanned either Saldana or I last night. I'm not going to tell the seer how to play his role, but dont worry about coming out to save me if you scanned me..

The way I think we play this is everyone either lynches Saldana or myself. Dont make it run away , keep it close. We'll see if the wolves try to save their own or not. If you all decide to lynch me, my death will make it clear who to go for tommorrow. If you all decide to lynch Saldana, then you'll know I am telling the truth.

I think either way you have a sure wolf here between the two of us, a seer reveal only saves one day but with no Bodyguard it condemns them to death.. So I personally think you shouldn't come out to save me or condemn Saldana, just let people vote where they will and we'll have something to go on hopefully tommorrow.

[Neon_Chaos]

Come to think of it... the wolves now have a hard time, since the murderer is dead and the chase is now on them.

They should have tried to protect st. cronin early on, if at all, to prevent this kind of scenario from shaping up.

[Chief Rum]

I'll have to mull that one over before giving it a thumbs up myself, not that I can stop it if I feel otherwise. My main hesitation is that you advocate the revelation of the seer as well, and without the BG, that means the seer will die tonight. Then we don't have anymore help in narrowing down the list of potential wolves, except for what your plan does.

[Barkeep49]

Neon: I'm not sure about that proposal as it would mean the wolves would be able to have a much higher percentage of finding Plum (their seer).

HOWEVER, I would suggest that perhaps Green wants to come forward as I don't think he'd be a threat to the wolves and then we'd have two people in the COT (Peacock and Green).

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm down with this plan. Seems to make sense from a numbers standpoint. Especially with the wolves only having a "chance" at a kill now. Just waiting for someone else to get the party started.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just got home. Glad I was right about Cronin pretty much all along. I am guessing that it is pretty likely that the seer scanned either Saldana or I last night. I'm not going to tell the seer how to play his role, but dont worry about coming out to save me if you scanned me..

The way I think we play this is everyone either lynches Saldana or myself. Dont make it run away , keep it close. We'll see if the wolves try to save their own or not. If you all decide to lynch me, my death will make it clear who to go for tommorrow. If you all decide to lynch Saldana, then you'll know I am telling the truth.

I think either way you have a sure wolf here between the two of us, a seer reveal only saves one day but with no Bodyguard it condemns them to death.. So I personally think you shouldn't come out to save me or condemn Saldana, just let people vote where they will and we'll have something to go on hopefully tommorrow.

i say we wipe the slate clean between saldana and you. we're not hunting the murderer anymore. we need to get us some wolves.

[Neon_Chaos]

Scarlett, if you're out there. This all lies on your decision.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'll have to mull that one over before giving it a thumbs up myself, not that I can stop it if I feel otherwise. My main hesitation is that you advocate the revelation of the seer as well, and without the BG, that means the seer will die tonight. Then we don't have anymore help in narrowing down the list of potential wolves, except for what your plan does.

but combined with the lack of certainty of a wolf kill and the high #'s of trust that should bring us, we ought to be fine to find the last whatever...3 wolves (especially as we feel we have a good lead with the alan/saldana thing)

[DaddyTorgo]

neon - we know we're not hunting the murderer anymore. But one of them 2 is unquestionably a wolf