Werewolf LXIII - Fall of the Elementals (Game Over - Avatars Win!)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I agree with trusting Lathum and would encourage anyone with a protection power to go to him this evening.

i agree with this srtagey

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

Dola, I'd still like to know who attacked me night 1 also. And what I'd really love to see is that someone else besides me tried to scan hoops at some point.

Again, I'm fine with being scanned. But I've had my actions confirmed on two nights (Night 1 and Night 3) by two different players - SnDvls and Lathum. I think that should count for something when you are trying to work through who is the most likely Avatar in our midst.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, were you the one who took out Saldana yesterday?

[Swaggs]

Man... the Central deadline keeps messing with my head.

I was on the phone and afraid I wouldn't be able to catch up in time to make a useful vote.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Swaggs, were you the one who took out Saldana yesterday?

No comment.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Again, I'm fine with being scanned. But I've had my actions confirmed on two nights (Night 1 and Night 3) by two different players - SnDvls and Lathum. I think that should count for something when you are trying to work through who is the most likely Avatar in our midst.

I understand that. But the fact that nobody else has even talked about scanning you after day 1 just boggles my mind from a meta-standpoint.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Man... the Central deadline keeps messing with my head.

I was on the phone and afraid I wouldn't be able to catch up in time to make a useful vote.

you have over an hour

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

you have over an hour

Yeah... I realized that a few minutes ago.

[hoopsguy]

Trust lists, from highest to least:
Hoopsguy - duh
Lathum - vouched by Schmidty
Jonathan - vouched by another player (Heinz). Would be dangerous for one Avatar to vouch for another early in game, too much time for it to go badly
Mr W - I don't think Clap was setting up a showdown with another Avatar
Swaggs - if Cronin is an Elemental then I think Swaggs is as well. I also got the impression that Clap wanted FUD around Swaggs
Cronin - playing cards very close to vest, but would have been hard to orchestrate his duke on Day 2 the way it went down
Path - provided info on powers being altered that has been confirmed by Cronin
Heinz - has vouched for another player, but that is about it

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

I understand that. But the fact that nobody else has even talked about scanning you after day 1 just boggles my mind from a meta-standpoint.

Again, it would be convenient for me to have the vouch as an Elemental that would come from a scan. I'm all for it. But I don't get to choose that action, so I'm not sure how else to respond to this.

[path12]

OK, I gotta run. I'll check back when I get a chance.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin - playing cards very close to vest, but would have been hard to orchestrate his duke on Day 2 the way it went down

Notwithstanding SnDvls possible duking, cronin was actually in a good position (for an avatar) where he could duke the vote to someone else and not look suspicious in doing so. Dunno that I'd read anything either way on the way that vote turned out.

[hoopsguy]

For the people who are here, how do you feel about my trust list - disregarding your place on it? Who do you have higher/lower and why?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Notwithstanding SnDvls possible duking, cronin was actually in a good position (for an avatar) where he could duke the vote to someone else and not look suspicious in doing so. Dunno that I'd read anything either way on the way that vote turned out.

Right, I read through the Day 2 stuff looking to see if they tried to orchestrate so he could get to Duke the vote. But it was pretty damn chaotic at the end - that didn't have the look of a team of people trying to get the duke in order to build trust for their guy.

[Swaggs]

What do you mean by FUD?

[hoopsguy]

Also on Cronin, he had an early vote on Clap Day 2 and then pulled it later. That got me suspicious, as did the result of the duking. But he then came out gunning for Clap on Day 3 and never deviated when there certainly could have been opportunities to do so.

If he is playing as an Avatar, then he had to feel very good about their position to be able to sacrifice a player on Day 3 to take that route.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

What do you mean by FUD?

Fear
Uncertainty
Doubt

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also on Cronin, he had an early vote on Clap Day 2 and then pulled it later. That got me suspicious, as did the result of the duking. But he then came out gunning for Clap on Day 3 and never deviated when there certainly could have been opportunities to do so.

If he is playing as an Avatar, then he had to feel very good about their position to be able to sacrifice a player on Day 3 to take that route.

Good catch, and that substantially raises cronin in my estimation.

[Swaggs]

Well then... I certainly don't agree with you about Cronin. I don't see why him being an avatar or elemental saves or damns me. And, I certainly don't see me having any ties to Clap--I honestly thought he was pretty UTR for much of the game, until he kind of hung himself and got called on yesterday.

My trust list is me, kind of Lathum, and kind of JE. I think Heinz clearing him, makes it pretty likely that JE is good, regardless of Heinz's ties (ie: if Heinz was an avatar, he would know what JE is and may have just been pandering).

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't feel super-strongly about heinz, but I'm not sure I'll be unbusy around deadline and I need to get a vote in.

VOTE jeheinz72

[Swaggs]

Do you guys think there are any other humans out there?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Well then... I certainly don't agree with you about Cronin. I don't see why him being an avatar or elemental saves or damns me. And, I certainly don't see me having any ties to Clap--I honestly thought he was pretty UTR for much of the game, until he kind of hung himself and got called on yesterday.

My trust list is me, kind of Lathum, and kind of JE. I think Heinz clearing him, makes it pretty likely that JE is good, regardless of Heinz's ties (ie: if Heinz was an avatar, he would know what JE is and may have just been pandering).

Actually, I think you are right to call the linkage into question as I re-evaluate it.

I was originally thinking that if Cronin was good, then you were picking between two good guys - Cronin and SnDvls - at the deadline. No incentive to switch as an Avatar, just let the dumb villagers eat their own and stay out of the way.

However, if Cronin was an Avatar then you could have switched the vote to him at the last minute and let him use the Duke. He gets some credit for being an Elemental, based on a traditional WW role, and you moved the vote to the Avatar who could protect himself (Cronin) instead of the Avatar who couldn't (Clap).

However, I forgot that SnDvls had indicated he was the Duke and that you were going to be his target. So you were definitely incented to not have him voted off the island on that day. Thus my linkage theory is damaged to the point of not using going forward.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Do you guys think there are any other humans out there?

i doubt it

[hoopsguy]

Vote feels a little too easy on Heinz, but I think he and Path are the two best options and I don't think we are going to get a move on Path at this point. Frankly, I'm not sure that I want one as I don't feel strongly about one versus the other.

I just wish our candidate was around to have some discussion about his actions and his overall record this game.

VOTE JEHEINZ

[Swaggs]

I hate to pile on, but I don't see much else to go on. I'm really hoping we get some people scanned and cleared tonight, but right now no one is really off-limits for me, aside from maybe Lathum and JE.

Vote jeheinz

[Coffee Warlord]

Mr W 1
Jeheinz 5

[hoopsguy]

And the deadline comes meekly. Hope for the best here.

Jonathan - I'm hoping you are available for more commentary on Monday. I would say the same thing to Heinz if he does end up dodging this lynch through some power.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Gotta say that the unopposed run on Heinz leaves me wondering if we've got the right guy.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Gotta say that the unopposed run on Heinz leaves me wondering if we've got the right guy.

who would you expect to oppose it?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Fair point, particularly if he turns out to be the last avatar.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, which I'd be mildly surprised if he is. I think we more likely were opposed by three avatars than two.

[Coffee Warlord]

All quiet on the front today, as you gather around the altar one more time. A gigantic Rhino appears behind you, staring down jeheinz, who appears in the center of the atlar. The Rhino looks at jeheinz. Jeheinz looks at the Rhino.

And one very fast, very big, very ugly Rhino charges into jeheinz at full tilt launching his battered body hundreds of yards into the air, finally landing with a satisfying crunch. The Rhino canters over, takes a bite out of heinz's leg, and vanishes, taking the corpse with him.

jeheinz was an Elemental.

Gravity 1, Elementals 0.

[claphamsa]

GO TEAM GO!

[hoopsguy]

I'll be interested in asking Heinz after the game if he had scheduling issues with weekend play. Maybe we would have gone another direction if he had been here to tell us what he did on Night 3, for example.

Oh well, lets see what the night term brings.

[Lathum]

hmmm, Could Path and Cronin both be Avatars?

[Swaggs]

Well, that was kind of a stab in the dark, but I was still hoping we would have nailed one.

I'm not so sure that there isn't just one more Avatar and one more human.

I'm curious (if there is anyone left), for those that have been able to act as a seer, did you get notification that your scan was an elemental or just that they were not avatars?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll be interested in asking Heinz after the game if he had scheduling issues with weekend play. Maybe we would have gone another direction if he had been here to tell us what he did on Night 3, for example.

Oh well, lets see what the night term brings.

FWIW hes never on on the weekend! I bet he didnt even know there was play during the weekend!

back to being dead

[hoopsguy]

Clap - Cronin (557), JE (584), Lathum (681), MrW (708), Schmidty (728)
MrW - Hoops (617), Heinz (621), Clap (707), Path (724)
The now-dead Saldana - Swaggs (569)

Final votes from Day 3:
MrW voters:
Heinz - dead Elemental
Clap - dead Avatar
Hoops
Path

I'm sure both of us will be around tomorrow so you guys can make it a him-or-me. Path, be ready for that argument because I'm absolutely going to be gunning for you.

If you aren't an Avatar, that would mean they made zero effort to save their own. I don't buy that at all.

[Lathum]

I gotta be honest I am at a complete loss right now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

At this point, the only people I trust with any degree of certainty are Lathum and JE, since both got vouches from known elementals. I think at least one and possibly two out of cronin, hoops, and path are avatars.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and with Lathum, it helps that he switched off of me and onto clap on day 3.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, my cronin, hoops, path group erroneously omitted Swaggs.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Final votes from Day 3:
MrW voters:
Heinz - dead Elemental
Clap - dead Avatar
Hoops
Path

I'm sure both of us will be around tomorrow so you guys can make it a him-or-me. Path, be ready for that argument because I'm absolutely going to be gunning for you.

If you aren't an Avatar, that would mean they made zero effort to save their own. I don't buy that at all.

If we suppose, arguendo, that Swaggs is an avatar, perhaps the failure to make a late move to rescue clap goes along with the failure to move the vote off a now-dead player.

I'm not trying to argue Swaggs as an avatar, but I don't think the possibility can be excluded. The bad guys don't always play perfectly, sometimes things come up and they don't get something done by the deadline.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Quad dola, my action is in, and in either directing it appropriately or, in the alternative, directing it inappropriately, the fate of the game may be decided.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Quintuple dola, assuming I survive the night, I will explicitly state what action I took when I check in again.

[jeheinz72]

Crap, really bad timing for me to not be able to get on over the weekend. I'll take the heat for it, with me not on I can see where you guys would pile on.

Go Elementals!

[hoopsguy]

Hoping our moderator makes an appearance soon, as I had some stuff going on last night that I want to be able to discuss.

[hoopsguy]

Actually, we are now past the deadline so I think I should be safe in discussing it out in the open.

I had a night action last night and went to visit our good buddy Path. Hope that works out for Team Elemental in that:
1.) I picked an Avatar
2.) No one else messed with me to stop me from my purpose

[hoopsguy]

And I just got a PM with the results from my Night action. I suppose the right thing to do is to wait for results to go up before discussing anything further.

[Coffee Warlord]

A night of dark fortunes for some. You gather to find the charred remains of Mr. Wednesday, complete with a happy Rhino sitting next to it, roasting marshmellows. The now dead Elemental is yet another of your bretheren to fall in this horrid battle.

And before the Rhino scampers off, he looks up, calls for his buddy the Trout, and runs off. We be under the Sign of the Trout.