Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Just finished presentation and getting ready to roll into a 4pm mtg. A couple of quick thoughts:

1. Hells Yes!

2. Thank goodness I wasn't around. How the heck did I get served up as an appetizer again?

3. So wait... I'm still being considered a wolf? I'll provide more details later, but I've had wolves snapping on me both days...

4. Hells Yes!

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Just finished presentation and getting ready to roll into a 4pm mtg. A couple of quick thoughts:

1. Hells Yes!

2. Thank goodness I wasn't around. How the heck did I get served up as an appetizer again?

3. So wait... I'm still being considered a wolf? I'll provide more details later, but I've had wolves snapping on me both days...

4. Hells Yes!

If you're referring to my post I don't think you are, was just brain storming reason why Jeff may not have wanted to switch. I will definitely look at those who voted for you today rather than you.

[Autumn]

CF, there's a later post where I added in all the vote totals. If you could do the colors there instead that would be awesome. If not I'll try to do that tonight.

[Narcizo]

I didn't really think DV was a wolf and I didn't really think tyke was a wolf. That's why I had difficulty picking either. Then again I didn't think Jeff was a wolf either.

I've been playing really badly all game long and I have other problems I have to take care of so I'm not going to be able to be very active from now. Which is very likely a blessing for the villager cause. Given that the only thing I think I can do is reveal so that you guys don't have to factor me into the equation of being a wolf (which you definitely should do without a reveal).

I'm Don Corleone. I know it's an "unnecessary" reveal but I think it's the only thing I can do to help the villager cause. Ok, if I get whacked you lose two villager count and it helps narrow down on the seer somewhat but it feels like this is the best play I can make for the village given my situation, and should help you get a better grip on finding the traitors.

[CrimsonFox]

Stealing Autumns post and coloring it.

Originally Posted by Narcizo
Day One

EF votes Saldana 120 (1)
Narcizo votes Mckerney 122 (1) (Saldana 1, McK 1)
J23 votes Chief Rum 132 (1) (Saldana 1, McK 1, Chief 1)
JAG votes Mckerney 148 (2) (McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
Lathum votes tyketime 153 (1) (McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1, Tyke 1)
Autumn votes tyketime 160 (2) (McK 2, Tyke 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
bhlloy votes mauboy1 161 (1) (McK 2, Tyke 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1, Mauboy 1)
jeff061 votes mauboy1 170 (2) (Mck 2, Tyke 2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mauboy1 votes tyketime 176 (3) (Tyke 3, McK2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mckerney votes tyketime 178 (4) (Tyke 4, Mck2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
narcizo unvotes mckerney (1)
narcizo votes mauboy1 (3) (Tyke 4, Mauboy 3, Mck1, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
autumn unvotes tyketime 184 (3)
autumn votes mckerney 185 (2) (Tyke 3, Mauboy 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
tyketime votes mauboy 193 (4) (Mauboy 4, Tyke 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mckerney unvotes tyketime 194 (2)
mckerney votes mauboy 194 (5) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 2, McK2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
chief votes tyketime (3) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
J23 unvotes chief rum (0)
J23 votes tyketime (4) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 4, McK 2, Saldana 1)
saldana votes mauboy (6) (Mauboy 6, Tyke 4, McK 2, Saldana 1)
martind votes mckerney (3) (Mauboy 6, Tyke 4, McK 3, Saldana 1)
zinto votes mauboy (7) (Mauboy 7, Tyke 4, McK 3, Saldana 1)

Day Two

Zinto votes Jeff (242) 1
CrimsonFox votes Tyke (289) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1)
Tyke votes CrimsonFox (290) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1, CF 1)
Eaglefan voted Saldana (294) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1, CF 1, Saldana 1)
Darth Vilus voted Tyke (295) 2 (Tyke 2, Jeff 1, CF 1, Saldana 1)
Narcizo voted Sal (298) 2 (Tyke 2, Saldana 2, Jeff 1, CF 1)
Danny voted Tyke (315) 3 (Tyke 3, Saldana 2, Jeff 1, CF 1)
Jackal voted Jeff (316) 2 (Tyke 3, Saldana 2, Jeff 2, CF 1)
Bhlloy voted CrimsonFox (317) 2 (3 Tyke, 2 CF, 2 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
McKerney voted Jeff (322) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Autumn voted CrimsonFox (336) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
Jeff voted Tyke (338) 4 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
JAG voted CrimsonFox (341) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Lathum voted CrimsonFox (347) 5 (5 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Tyke unvoted CrimsonFox (354) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
CrimsonFox unvoted tyke (381) 3 (4 CF, 3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Saldana voted tyke (384) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
JAG unvoted CrimsonFox (391) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy unvoted CrimsonFox (400) 2 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy voted Saldana (400) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
J23 voted Jeff (427) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
Lathum unvotes CrimsonFox (444) 1 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 1 CF)
Lathum votes Saldana (444) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 1 CF)
Jeff unvotes Tyke (453) 3 (4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Jeff votes Sal (453) 5 (5 Saldana, 4 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
CrimsonFox votes Jeff (462) 5 (5 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
MartinD votes Jeff (463) 6 (6 Jeff, 5 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Tyke votes Sal (479) 6 (6 Jeff, 6 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
McKerney unvotes jeff (482) 5
McKerney votes Sal (482) 7 (7 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
JAG votes Jeff (495) 6 (7 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Autumn unvotes CrimsonFox (501) 0
Autumn votes saldana (501) 8 (8 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I didn't really think DV was a wolf and I didn't really think tyke was a wolf. That's why I had difficulty picking either. Then again I didn't think Jeff was a wolf either.

I've been playing really badly all game long and I have other problems I have to take care of so I'm not going to be able to be very active from now. Which is very likely a blessing for the villager cause. Given that the only thing I think I can do is reveal so that you guys don't have to factor me into the equation of being a wolf (which you definitely should do without a reveal).

I'm Don Corleone. I know it's an "unnecessary" reveal but I think it's the only thing I can do to help the villager cause. Ok, if I get whacked you lose two villager count and it helps narrow down on the seer somewhat but it feels like this is the best play I can make for the village given my situation, and should help you get a better grip on finding the traitors.

Nonsense, I think you're playing a very good game. Hopefully you can still log in to vote tomorrow.

[CrimsonFox]

Did mckerney reveal before? I thought I read something about that skimming this morning. What post number too?

[JAG]

I'll say this about Autumn. The first couple days don't look very good, but he was on Jeff before I revealed about the gun/canoli, although he voted for the unknown Tyke instead of DV (I can't complain too much because I wasn't on the right player either). I've seen fairly eye-to-eye with him on most of his thought process.

Interesting reveal by Narcizo. Assuming no one counters it, and that's pretty likely because as a wolf it would be a death sentence to fake reveal as a duke, that takes away a decent suspect I had going into today.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'd probably vote for me on vote history, so I don't have any defense there. I think I said yesterday that lynching me wouldn't be the worst move we could make, I'm Appollonia so I'm basically a vanilla villager now. I had no idea mauboy was Michael Corleone, one of the restrictions on PMs was that they weren't allowed at the beginning of the game and I'm not sure when it would have been allowed.

Post 696 CF.

[The Jackal]

Autumn fits into the same mechanic i mentioned about bhlloy on day 1. They both put a second vote on a candidate after the first vote are both known wolves.

[JAG]

[nitpick]Danny still needs to be blue[/nitpick]

[CrimsonFox]

[laziness] Do it yourself. [/laziness]

[Autumn]

No, I think that's a good reveal, Narcizo. The duke is more useful as a revealing mechanic than actually changing the lynch. And given that you were in the conversation for voting that helps a lot.

[JAG]

I honestly don't mind, but it's way too much effort on the phone.

First glance at D2 and D3 is that Zinto and Jackal voted for wolves both days, so not that I was overly down on either, but that gives them a trust boost.

[CrimsonFox]

hehe I'm just kidding. It really isn't necessary for one mistake.

[MartinD]

Didn't see a final Day 3 count, so have put one together based on the last one posted (by Pass at 762):

Darth Vilus -- 6 -- EagleFan (682) The Jackal (705) tyketime (746) J23 (748) Zinto (764) Narcizo (791)
bhlloy -- 1 -- CrimsonFox (560)
tyketime -- 4 -- Darth Vilus (633) Autumn (758) bhlloy (761) MartinD (796)
Narcizo -- 2 -- JAG (681) mckerney (732)
JAG -- 1 -- jeff061 (719)

[Autumn]

A lot of good looking votes there day 2, at first glance. It was close enough that I wouldn't think the wolves would have given up hope on the cause at any point. My vote at the end obviously doesn't look good now, though I think I've been clear all game about putting a 2 vote lead in to avoid ties. McKerney's vote there looks bad too, but again, ties.

[Autumn]

Darth's vote on Tyke looks good for Tyke right now, that's about all we can get from Darth dying. He missed the vote on day 1. I haven't looked at today's voting.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by JAG

I honestly don't mind, but it's way too much effort on the phone.

First glance at D2 and D3 is that Zinto and Jackal voted for wolves both days, so not that I was overly down on either, but that gives them a trust boost.

Add J23 to that, missed him by accident.

[CrimsonFox]

Perhaps two of the three of them are Fredo/Moe.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I didn't really think DV was a wolf and I didn't really think tyke was a wolf. That's why I had difficulty picking either. Then again I didn't think Jeff was a wolf either.

I've been playing really badly all game long and I have other problems I have to take care of so I'm not going to be able to be very active from now. Which is very likely a blessing for the villager cause. Given that the only thing I think I can do is reveal so that you guys don't have to factor me into the equation of being a wolf (which you definitely should do without a reveal).

Before I get into other stuff, for what it's worth, everyone has bad games. Chief Rum had an awesome game in the Vegas game and followed it up with an uneven effort the following one (some might call it worse than that). Considering this is your first game back, I think you can be more than forgiven for missing on a couple reads. With your reveal, I can say I'm sorry I went after you and glad to know you're good going forward.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Unvote Darth

Vote Jag

I don't know if Jag is a wolf. I only know I am. He wants to unilaterally kill a villager(I realize this is more clear cut for me). If he is lynched a villager(perhaps 2) is definitely saved and a wolf is potentially lynched.

I honestly can't think of a better scenario for us if he is gung-ho about using his item.

Best Freudian slip of the game!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Best Freudian slip of the game!

Wow! HOw did we miss this! This game is easier than I thought. The wolves just give themselves up!

[JAG]

With 7 of 7 dead players all having roles and a couple others having revealed unchallenged as certain roles, I'm going to assume this is a 100% role game with everyone having a role as listed in the rules. That means for sure we have at least two more traitors to catch (Sollozzo and Barzini) and possibly even a 6th if there's another good/traitor role that is on the traitors' side. Even if there is a 6th traitor (which would mean a starting ratio of 17:6 with the good guys that count double), I don't think it's worth chasing that until we have nailed the two sure wolves (for those that were around last game, same argument for not going after the cunning until that was the last wolf left). Looking at the remaining players other than myself:

Reveals:
Narcizo (revealed as Don Corleone)
mckerney (revealed as Apollina, not worth being a candidate until other wolves are dispatched)

Good voting history:
J23 (D2 + D3 voted wolf)
The Jackal (D2 + D3 voted wolf)
Zinto (D2 + D3 voted wolf)
EF (D1+D2 votes for villager, but voted for two wolves D3)

This is a rather unusually high number of good voters for this point in the game, so it's possible the wolves got tricky with their voting, but barring other information, I don't see any as a good vote for today.

Good votes D2, uncertain votes D3 (pending tyke's allegiance)
CrimsonFox (feather in his cap that Lathum and other unknowns tried to vote him up when jeff (wolf) was a candidate, his D3 singleton vote is a bit out there, but if tyke is a villager, you would think a wolf would put a vote there)
MartinD (I feel decent that we saw something similar)

I could listen to a case against them, but it would take a decent bit to convince me over the next three.

Best candidates for today (IMO)
Autumn (only decent vote was for Jeff at the start of D3. Looks worse if tyke is bad.)
tyketime (made the vote 3-1 DV over him on D3 when he could've voted Narcizo is the only saving grace in his voting, the D2 voting looks particularly bad. Whether he is a wolf or not, no other lynch will reveal as much information as his will. That's what happens when you're in the running three days in a row though, doesn't necessarily mean he's guilty)
bhlloy (his D2 voting mirrors tyke's, which isn't a good thing. Only decent vote is like Autumn, his opening vote D3 on Jeff prior to my gun/canoli reveal).

Lastly, I don't want to put too much credence in a long ago post by Lathum, but I want to bring it up again:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not ready to jump all over the Mau voters yet. The fact of it is you will get scrutiny for going elsewhere with your vote and having it be "meaningless" so you are damned if you do and damned if you dont. I'm willing to give credit and a pass to someone like Sal who at least went out on a limb D1 and didn't bury his vote.

So from this post, it sounds like he wants to steer towards looking at unknowns (at the time, this was Danny, CF, Jackal, and DV) and away from mau voters. If you take him as having an agenda with that comment, that means he wanted to steer towards unknowns where there was one known wolf, one known villager, and two leaning towards villager (25% wolf) and away from the 7 mau voters. That would make sense if there were 2+ wolves on mau (2 would be 29%, 3 would be 43%). Looking at the mau voters, we have:

bhlloy
jeff (known wolf)
narcizo (revealed villager)
tyketime
mckerney (revealed neutral)
saldana (confirmed villager)
zinto

Interesting that two of my top three targets are present there. One of those two is likely where I'm going today, again barring further info.

[JAG]

I'll put together D3 vote flow in the morning if no one else has done it by then.

[J23]

Thanks for the analysis JAG. I don't expect to have as much time tomorrow to be in the thread as I had today, so trying to look at some stuff tonight.

[tyketime]

This is what I came up with:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Stealing Autumns post and coloring it.

Originally Posted by Narcizo
Day One

EF votes Saldana 120 (1)
Narcizo votes Mckerney 122 (1) (Saldana 1, McK 1)
J23 votes Chief Rum 132 (1) (Saldana 1, McK 1, Chief 1)
JAG votes Mckerney 148 (2) (McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
Lathum votes tyketime 153 (1) (McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1, Tyke 1)
Autumn votes tyketime 160 (2) (McK 2, Tyke 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
bhlloy votes mauboy1 161 (1) (McK 2, Tyke 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1, Mauboy 1)
jeff061 votes mauboy1 170 (2) (Mck 2, Tyke 2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mauboy1 votes tyketime 176 (3) (Tyke 3, McK2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mckerney votes tyketime 178 (4) (Tyke 4, Mck2, Mauboy 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
narcizo unvotes mckerney (1)
narcizo votes mauboy1 (3) (Tyke 4, Mauboy 3, Mck1, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
autumn unvotes tyketime 184 (3)
autumn votes mckerney 185 (2) (Tyke 3, Mauboy 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
tyketime votes mauboy 193 (4) (Mauboy 4, Tyke 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
mckerney unvotes tyketime 194 (2)
mckerney votes mauboy 194 (5) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 2, McK2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
chief votes tyketime (3) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)
J23 unvotes chief rum (0)
J23 votes tyketime (4) (Mauboy 5, Tyke 4, McK 2, Saldana 1)
saldana votes mauboy (6) (Mauboy 6, Tyke 4, McK 2, Saldana 1)
martind votes mckerney (3) (Mauboy 6, Tyke 4, McK 3, Saldana 1)
zinto votes mauboy (7) (Mauboy 7, Tyke 4, McK 3, Saldana 1)

Day Two

Zinto votes Jeff (242) 1
CrimsonFox votes Tyke (289) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1)
Tyke votes CrimsonFox (290) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1, CF 1)
Eaglefan voted Saldana (294) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1, CF 1, Saldana 1)
Darth Vilus voted Tyke (295) 2 (Tyke 2, Jeff 1, CF 1, Saldana 1)
Narcizo voted Sal (298) 2 (Tyke 2, Saldana 2, Jeff 1, CF 1)
Danny voted Tyke (315) 3 (Tyke 3, Saldana 2, Jeff 1, CF 1)
Jackal voted Jeff (316) 2 (Tyke 3, Saldana 2, Jeff 2, CF 1)
Bhlloy voted CrimsonFox (317) 2 (3 Tyke, 2 CF, 2 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
McKerney voted Jeff (322) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Autumn voted CrimsonFox (336) 3 (3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
Jeff voted Tyke (338) 4 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 CF, 2 Saldana)
JAG voted CrimsonFox (341) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Lathum voted CrimsonFox (347) 5 (5 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Tyke unvoted CrimsonFox (354) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
CrimsonFox unvoted tyke (381) 3 (4 CF, 3 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Saldana voted tyke (384) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
JAG unvoted CrimsonFox (391) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 CF, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy unvoted CrimsonFox (400) 2 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 CF, 2 Saldana)
Bhlloy voted Saldana (400) 3 (4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
J23 voted Jeff (427) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 2 CF)
Lathum unvotes CrimsonFox (444) 1 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 3 Saldana, 1 CF)
Lathum votes Saldana (444) 4 (4 Tyke, 4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 1 CF)
Jeff unvotes Tyke (453) 3 (4 Jeff, 4 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Jeff votes Sal (453) 5 (5 Saldana, 4 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
CrimsonFox votes Jeff (462) 5 (5 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
MartinD votes Jeff (463) 6 (6 Jeff, 5 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Tyke votes Sal (479) 6 (6 Jeff, 6 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
McKerney unvotes jeff (482) 5
McKerney votes Sal (482) 7 (7 Saldana, 5 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
JAG votes Jeff (495) 6 (7 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)
Autumn unvotes CrimsonFox (501) 0
Autumn votes saldana (501) 8 (8 Saldana, 6 Jeff, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)

Day Three

EF votes Jeff (545) 1 [Jeff 1]
J23 votes DarthVilus (553) 1 [Jeff 1, DarthVilus 1]
CrimsonFox votes Bhlloy (560) 1 [Jeff 1, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]
Bhlloy votes Jeff (591) 2 [Jeff 2, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]
Autumn votes Jeff (601) 3 [Jeff 3, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]
JAG reveals plan to use items and kill Jeff
DarthVilus votes tyketime (633) 1 [Jeff 3, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1]
MartinD votes Jeff (638) 4 [Jeff 4, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1]
J23 unvotes DarthVilus (667) 0
JAG confirms plan to use items and kill Jeff (678)
JAG votes Narcizo (681) 1 [Jeff 4, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, Narcizo 1]
EF unvotes Jeff (682) 2
EF votes DarthVilus (682) 1 [Jeff 2, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, Narcizo 1]
Jeff votes DarthVilus (689) 2 [Jeff 2, DarthVilus 2, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, Narcizo 1]
Autumn unvotes Jeff (689) 1
Bhlloy unvotes Jeff (691) 0
TheJackal votes DarthVilus (705) 3 [DarthVilus 3, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, Narcizo 1]
Jeff unvotes DarthVilus (719) 2
Jeff votes JAG (719) 1 [DarthVilus 2, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, Narcizo 1, JAG 1]
Mckerney votes Narcizo (732) 2 [DarthVilus 2, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, JAG 1]
Tyketime votes DarthVilus (746) 3 [DarthVilus 3, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, JAG 1]
J23 votes DarthVilus (748) 4 [DarthVilus 4, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, JAG 1]
Autumn votes Tyketime (758) 2 [DarthVilus 4, Narcizo 2, Tyketime 2, Bhlloy 1, JAG 1]
MartinD unvotes Jeff (760)
Bhlloy votes Tyketime (761) 3 [DarthVilus 4, Tyketime 3, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, JAG 1]
Zinto votes DarthVilus (764) 5 [DarthVilus 5, Tyketime 3, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, JAG 1]
Narcizo votes DarthVilus (791) 6 [DarthVilus 6, Tyketime 3, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, JAG 1]
MartinD votes Tyketime (796) 4 [DarthVilus 6, Tyketime 4, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, JAG 1]

[tyketime]

First of all - great analysis JAG! Thanks for putting that together.

Since I appear to be in the spotlight again, I will address the points you bring up regarding my vote history:

Day One
tyketime votes mauboy 193 (4) (Mauboy 4, Tyke 3, McK 2, Saldana 1, Chief 1)

As I said in my post, the two who piled on were Mauboy & Mckerney. Less than an hour before the deadline, I'm more concerned with pushing a candidate ahead of me instead of bringing a third into a tie situation. So I voted (wrongly as it turns out) Mauboy.

Day Two
Tyke votes CrimsonFox (290) 1 (Jeff 1, Tyke 1, CF 1)
Tyke unvoted CrimsonFox (354) 4 (4 CF, 4 Tyke, 3 Jeff, 2 Saldana)
Tyke votes Sal (479) 6 (6 Jeff, 6 Saldana, 3 Tyke, 1 CF)

To counter my late vote on Day One, I opted to vote earlier on Day 2. I gave my reasoning in the thread on why I picked CF out of the four non-voters. But as CF started to calm down, I unvoted him putting me back into a tie with him (and notice known wolf Jeff was only one vote down). As a wolf, would I have now put two suspected wolves in jeopardy?

My late vote was again a defensive vote to push a second candidate to make it less possible for any double-votes to throw me to the gallows. Admittedly, I could have voted Jeff (now known wolf). But he was scrambling as the top vote-getter, and had just unvoted me 20 posts or so previous. I feared me putting a vote on him would have triggered him to cast his vote back on me.

Day Three
Tyketime votes DarthVilus (746) 3 [DarthVilus 3, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, JAG 1]

Well I cast a crucial 3rd vote on DarthVilus (now known wolf) to put him in the lead. I felt good about that vote and didn't move off of it. So this is clearly the best of my three votes. And as you say, I could have picked Narcizo (suspected villager with revealed role) to have tipped him ahead of DarthVilus.

[tyketime]

J23 votes DarthVilus (748) 4 [DarthVilus 4, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, Tyketime 1, JAG 1]
Autumn votes Tyketime (758) 2 [DarthVilus 4, Narcizo 2, Tyketime 2, Bhlloy 1, JAG 1]
MartinD unvotes Jeff (760)
Bhlloy votes Tyketime (761) 3 [DarthVilus 4, Tyketime 3, Narcizo 2, Bhlloy 1, JAG 1]

This voting sequence I find interesting and will need to look into further. Autumn & Bhlloy both push me back into contention against a now known wolf. And those two names happen to appear as the other two Best Candidates.

[MartinD]

This is the only chance I'm going to have to post before deadline today - will be working late, and am going to a golf club meeting pretty much straight from work - so I don't have time for much in the way of analysis.

Even though he has revealed as a neutral, I don't like mckerney's votes over the last couple of days - part of the late switch that lynched saldana over jeff061 on Day 2, and voted for Narcizo on Day 3 (not sure if he was on around deadline, but if he was, it seems a little strange that he didn't move his vote onto one of the main two candidates, as it seems to me that there could be a bit of 'hiding his vote' going on).

VOTE MCKERNEY

[CrimsonFox]

Some day 3 analysis based on posts and chatter (with notes)

#545 - EF on the beginning of day three implicating both Jeff and Darth, two wolves. ++EF villager

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I see there was a traitor nailed today, which is great news, though we lost two in the process. I doubt that I will have much time to participate in this game with the deadline as it is.
Voting now to start the conversation rolling and as a place holder. I will check back in and change it if anything comes up that would change my mind about that. I would be surprised if that were to happen though, or totally reading things incorrectly.
At this point it's between jeff and darth in my mind.
vote jeff061

#553 - J23 Voting DV before anyone else when Jeff is already the prime suspect. This seems very villager on someone with other things going for him.+j23 villager

Originally Posted by J23

Those are actually the two names that I wanted to look at as well.
Lathum's vote for Saldana rather than for Jeff brings up some questions.
As for DV, no-show for day1 and a drive-by vote on day2 (as I pointed out earlier about him and Danny, though Danny ended up as a villager).
I'll start the ball rolling on the other
vote DV

#569 - Autumn - Suggesting tyke having motive in Danny's killing. "Feels better" about Darth; wolf+

Originally Posted by Autumn

I suppose the other thing about Danny is that his vote was left on Tyketime, so killing a Tyke voter leaves us more in the dark about Jeff/Saldana voters. That makes me feel better about Darth, as the wolves wouldn't have wanted to leave him on an island there.
A vote history will be useful, as I'm not sure what the vote was at when Lathum moved.

#574 - Autumn placing a little doubt on "Jeff being the only candidate" and placing "wolf vibe" on mckerney

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, Jeff certainly seems the primary suspect after looking at the votes. He and Lathum manage to swing the vote to Saldana, especially if Lathum had a double vote. Nothing ironclad enough to make him our only candidate, but he certainly should be in the running.

Also on my radar is Mckerney. I didn't really like the way he used my logic to validate his move to Saldana. That's the kind of things wolves do to keep the blame from sticking to them. I think there was someone else who did that too, I'll have to read back.

#591 - bhlloy with a vote on Jeff. everybody's already looking at Jeff being guilty. "only remaining loose end" although he may have been talking about the previous day and Jeff being a consideration, but he's far from the only loose end.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Well, it's pretty clear to me where I think I'm going with today's vote. Other than myself, this guy is the only remaining loose end from the first day's voting. I don't really see any reason not to do this today.

Vote Jeff

#598 - DV Jumping on the anti-tyke bandwagon +tyke villager

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

Alright guys, I'll adress whatever questions you have. The reason I've been so quiet is because the deadline absoloutely blows for me. I like to be an active player, it makes the game more fun for me. Whether I'm a vanilla, wolf, seer, duke etc. I always like to be active. The only way i'm quiet or miss deadlines is because of outside circumstances (mostly work and school). Even if it was my day off (like today, that's why i'm talking) id still miss deadline because I get out of school at 11am which is the exact same time as deadline. I don't have a phone with internet so the only time i can log on is when i'm at home. So that's why I'm especially quitet this time.
Now for Tyke
I already explained why i voted you, you were in contention for the lynch day 1 and then when that was over you tried to shift attention to the people weren't around and missed deadline. A very strange deadline that we're not used to by the way. You said that it was to get them to be more active but that just sounded like a throw away reason to me. Then when we did start showing up you were giving us heat for the way that we started playing (mostly for voting you). This just seems really inconsistent to me to be honest. You're miffed at peoople not playing and then attack them when they do. I still think there's a really strong chance that you're a wolf, the only things that you have going for you IMO is that you voted lathum and are pretty active in accusing people, i doubt a wolf would do that so early on.

#601 - Right before JAG gun reveal and the second Jeff vote. There is "runaway Jeff" talk before this.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I've got a series of inklings, but the best thing I have to go on right now is Jeff. We had a lot of vote movement earlier today, the end result involving moving away from Jeff, with the assistance of Lathum. It could be just random, that Lathum picked one villager over another. But there was enough movement that I'm curious to see what will happen if he's in the mix again.
VOTE JEFF061

[CrimsonFox]

Analysis: The JAG reveal thru the mckerney reveal


#602 - JAG - His first reveal that he has gun and canoli and that he most likely will use it to kill Jeff.

#621 mckerney - Under no pressure reveals canoli pass.

Originally Posted by mckerney

I was the one who passed you the canoli last night.

#633 DV - voting tyke instead of jeff. Looks good for tyke. Not good to bring up tyke again if he were a wolf and plenty of candidates could get the rap after jeff goes down.+tyke villager

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

Well I'm going to call it a night guys, i have some schoolwork to finish.
Vote tyketime
For the reasons that I've already given and the fact that I don't want it to be a runaway, those don't really tell us that much. if JAG wants to kill jeff there really isn't anything we can do about it (other then telling him not too) and it would be more beneficial for us to look at other candidates if Jeff will be killed anyway.
If JAG decides not to then it's best to just let the lynch go the way it will go.

Weird unvote for j23 on dv. But he did start it.

Originally Posted by J23

unvote DV

Given that I think either DV or Jackal is Clemenza, I'm going to do that for now.

#682 EF changes from jeff to DV, making #2. This is after j23's vote. DV isn't on anyone's huge radar and a second vote on ANYONE is serious when it could start a run. +Eaglefan villager

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Glad I didn't close the browser yet. Probably the last chance that I get to post before this evening (unless I can sneak away at some point). I'll go with my second option.
unvote jeff
vote Darth Vilus

#684 INteresting that jeff implicated DV.

Originally Posted by jeff061

And as I stated prior to Eagle switching votes, I was leaning towards DV. I just didn't think someone on the block should be the one to lead the charge. Rings hollow.

#687 Jeff Voting DV. Perhaps knows he's dead and wants to clear a wolf. He keeps mentioning EF as the reason for his vote. Perhaps there is dissension in the wolf group.

Originally Posted by jeff061

Yeah, but EF had named(voted I think) me in the same post. Overlooked you I guess. So hell, let's make it official.
Darth Vilus

#690-691 Autumn and bhlloy unvote jeff but do not revote.
No explanation from Autumn, bhlloy pontificates about Darth, Martin, and mckerney. One known wolf and one revealed probable villager plus an unknown. This is actually somewhat villager behavior.

[CrimsonFox]

Analysis: The mckerney reveal and after


#696 mckerney - the reveal

Zinto makes several posts being reluctant about the gun plan and doesn't vote at all. Mostly a discussion with Jeff semiarguing about why it might or might not bge a good idea. In it he suggests that Jeff will win by a large margin anyway. (Not sure if Zinto was the first person to say that.) Also Zinto doesn't vote on the entire page. (Not sure who else disliked gun plan)

#727 Autumn's Voting analysis - Whether or not Jeff is a wolf, he proposes that Mckerney, JAG, and Tyke in the "suspicious wolf" category

Originally Posted by Autumn

Let's get this back up on the current page. I've added the vote counts for day 2, I'll try to do day 1 at some point.

Looking at day 2, if Jeff is a wolf I think that paints J23 and CF and Martin well, paints McKerney poorly. JAG gets a mixed review, he votes CF earlier in the day at a crucial juncture, but then votes Jeff back up towards the end.

If Jeff is a villager, day 2's not too handy unless Tyketime is bad. If Tyke is a wolf, Jeff looks good with his vote.

#746 Tyke - vote 3 on DV

Originally Posted by tyketime

Well - I said earlier I wasn't thrilled with DV playing the drive-by game. And he's dinged me very early twice using the same reason each time. I don't like putting a vote out there and not being able to reconsider as the deadline approaches, but I'm afraid work has intervened today.

VOTE DARTH VILUS

I'm around for 10-15 minutes, and then I'm off to the conference room. If someone has a better idea, I'm listening...

#748 J23 with vote 4. NOt sure why he unvoted before.

#751-2 - Autumn saying "If tyke = bad, then autumn = bad" plus implicating a tie between lathum and tyke.
#752: Autumn "if jeff is bad, narc looks bad. plus making a link between jeff and bhlloy
#756 - Autumn "If jeff is bad, there could be a link between Lathum and Tyke"
#758 Autumn votes tyke

#761 - bhlloy follows Autumn onto tyke
#764 - ZInto votes Darth instead of tyke making it 5-3 instead of 4-4 +villager Zinto

[CrimsonFox]

I've already said it but I've got a spidey sense about Autumn at the moment. Two instances made me feel weird. First when he voted for me during my "rampage". He had a slightly unusual explanation. Then after things cooled off on me when people were fairly convinced I wasn't a good candidate, he stayed on me the rest of the day.

The second was when he voted for saldana he did so in a matter of fact way saying "I'm here to stop shenanigans" and make sure no ties. It somewhat came across to me as "I'm absolutely making sure saldana can not be saved and here's my trademark villager excuse."

My other analysis above may seem skewed against Autumn but as I already had doubts, I wanted to look at people and what they say and who they say it about and in what circumstances.

Ergo...

VOTE AUTUMN

[CrimsonFox]

Please look to see if you see anything else from analysis but I obviously feel 100% sure JAG is a villager.
mckerney revealed the canoli and that he was a good/bad role. So for today I feel good about him. I really think he could only be a wolf if there are 6 wolves.

j23's day 1 jump off of chief rum started my good feeling about him and his voting has been pretty solid outside the stutterstep on DV.

tyke I have felt good about since day 2 and especially with DV and Lathum voting for him all over the place.

EF I feel really good about with his DV/jeff split.

ZInto has been a complete unknown until he sealed DV's fate yesterday.

bhhloy's first two days of voting are horrible. day 3 he was an unknown. Might be targetted by own wolf brothers.

Martin - I know nothing about. Both his and blloy's votes on tyke are suspicious. Martin's being the last could very well be trying to boost tyke to a tie with darth via voting bonuses or blind hope. His vote on mckerney now puzzles me. I'm leaning toward a martin wolf over a bhlloy wolf because of that.

[CrimsonFox]

apologies for long long posts
(whether or not they make sense)

[JAG]

Great stuff tyke and Crimson. CF, one other thing I would say about Zinto is that he introduced Jeff as a candidate D2 right off the bat, which is a plus for him.

Also another thing I had thought of, if you look at even the people I list as most suspicious, pretty much everyone has something decent vote-wise they can point to, so we have proof we have some wolf on wolf voting that's been going on.

[CrimsonFox]

After last two games I'm SURE of it. Everyone wants to outwolf tyke from two games ago and cougarfreak from last game.

[CrimsonFox]

That's why I'm not looking at votes, but at posts. and WHEN and HOW they vote. I haven't gone back to day one and two doing that really. JAG, feel free to contradict or expand on anything I"ve said.

[CrimsonFox]

But the thing is JAG, would wolves vote for wolves when they don't NEED to vote for wolves? Especially Darth. Darth wasn't a HUGE candidate. (ask his wife *rimshot* ) There were other candidates like tyke and Narcizo. WOuld a wolf place a somewhat damning vote on Darth when they already knew they were going to likely lose Jeff?

[JAG]

Funny you should say that, I was just looking at this sequence:

EF votes Jeff (545) 1 [Jeff 1]
J23 votes DarthVilus (553) 1 [Jeff 1, DarthVilus 1]
CrimsonFox votes Bhlloy (560) 1 [Jeff 1, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]
Bhlloy votes Jeff (591) 2 [Jeff 2, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]
Autumn votes Jeff (601) 3 [Jeff 3, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]

After DV and Bhlloy get votes, Bhlloy and Autumn quickly up Jeff to 3. Maybe an effort to buy some trust with Jeff dying and get attention away from DV?

Also, how many times during the day did Jeff say we should vote to lynch him instead of using the gun to kill him? That makes that sequence even more interesting to me.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

But the thing is JAG, would wolves vote for wolves when they don't NEED to vote for wolves? Especially Darth. Darth wasn't a HUGE candidate. (ask his wife *rimshot* ) There were other candidates like tyke and Narcizo. WOuld a wolf place a somewhat damning vote on Darth when they already knew they were going to likely lose Jeff?

Also, in light of this, what do you think about Martin's D2 vote on Jeff? At the time it moved Jeff ahead of saldana 6-5 (or if you assume him to be a wolf, he would've known it was a tie with Lathum's vote counting double on sal).

[CrimsonFox]

Are you saying Martin as a wolf helped kill JEff on day 2 along with Saldana?

[CrimsonFox]

And I don't know if you can say "would have known Lathum's vote counts double". Hell it's hard enough in this game to keep deadlines, let alone remember who all double-votes. The wolves MAY have organized and reminded each other what special powers they had but we as a village haven't really taken double votes into account until after we know they die.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JAG

Funny you should say that, I was just looking at this sequence:

EF votes Jeff (545) 1 [Jeff 1]
J23 votes DarthVilus (553) 1 [Jeff 1, DarthVilus 1]
CrimsonFox votes Bhlloy (560) 1 [Jeff 1, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]
Bhlloy votes Jeff (591) 2 [Jeff 2, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]
Autumn votes Jeff (601) 3 [Jeff 3, DarthVilus 1, Bhlloy 1]

After DV and Bhlloy get votes, Bhlloy and Autumn quickly up Jeff to 3. Maybe an effort to buy some trust with Jeff dying and get attention away from DV?

Now that you mention it, I DID have a little bit of a headturn on this day when I voted for bhlloy and I think he didn't even mention it and voted for Jeff. That seemed odd to me.

[bhlloy]

Obviously, I'm completely damned by my voting record so far (which has been terrible) but the one thing I'd say for yesterday is that there is no way the wolves leave three of their own just sitting on tyketime. In fact all I see in the movement to tyketime is some solid analysis (more on that below). Narcizo would have been a much better target for the wolves to vote up as he already had two votes and DV could have switched onto him.

Go back and look at the reasons for voting tyke yesterday. I really think they are villager reasons and not just a wolf looking for another candidate to put up against DV (because Narc would have been the better play anyway). We were basically in a situation yesterday where if Jeff turned up good, Lathum's voting history looked really, really bad for Tyke. If Jeff had turned up good, it would be a no brainer to look at Tyke today. Obviously the fact that Jeff was wolfy explains a lot of Lathum's voting and it looks a lot better for tyke. I'm reasonably confident of tyke as villager today,but that wasn't the case yesterday.

I don't have any explanation for yesterday really other than the wolves just completely screwed up in saving Darth. I wonder if we only have 1 wolf left rather than the 2 we are assuming and they just aren't in a position to move the votes around to save themselves any more?

As for who to vote for instead of me, I'm completely lost. The players I feel the worst about are MartinD and Zinto but both have key votes on wolves the last couple of days. Zinto put DV completely over the top and also had the first on Jeff on day 2, and MartinD had a key vote to put Jeff back ahead on day 2. Autumn obviously has the worst voting record apart from me but I just don't get a wolf vibe from him. I'm aware how bad that sounds but that's just the vibe I get. Push comes to shove I'm probably voting for Autumn but I wouldn't feel confident about it like I did with Tyke yesterday.

[CrimsonFox]

Ah here's the sequence. He DID mention it but look:

Here I am voting for him:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

After our little spat today, I feel pretty good about tyketime, especially with the Lathum vote on him. For now I've made up my mind, which may change tomorrow.

I like my thought before that one of the first four saldana voters is a wolf.
One of them was also:
The first person to vote for mauboy day AND the first person to jump on the tyketime train to vote against me today.

VOTE bhlloy

Here is his reaction:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If you are a villager, why would I jump off you to go onto Saldana?

Here are the two of us poking holes in his answer.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

This is a good point. THanks for addressing it. A possibility is that I no longer mattered at that point. Two people had just unvoted me (a reverse run...a walk, if you will) and it seemed that others might. I only had 3 people on me including you. (although Lathum was one of them). But since saldana is a villager too, one villager is good as another.

You wouldn't vote for jeff if both of you were wolves at that point. But if jeff is a villager, it does you no harm to move to saldana.

So any situation, the jump to villager sal is possible. but this was just based on the votes I saw. Now that Narcizo has posted the whole voting patterns I may see something else.

Originally Posted by JAG

At that point it seemed like there could be momentum off CF as I gad unvoted him. If you are a wolf, you knew Lathum was going to switch and you could be assured of more votes ending up on sal than CF, which would be significant if Jeff is a wolf. If Jeff is a villager, then obviously it doesn't look bad or good.

Here is him not answering either of us and voting Jeff:

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Well, it's pretty clear to me where I think I'm going with today's vote. Other than myself, this guy is the only remaining loose end from the first day's voting. I don't really see any reason not to do this today.

Vote Jeff

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Now that you mention it, I DID have a little bit of a headturn on this day when I voted for bhlloy and I think he didn't even mention it and voted for Jeff. That seemed odd to me.

Why would that be funny? If I'm a wolf, wouldn't I actually defend myself?

As for the original premise, JAG hadn't even mentioned killing Jeff when I voted for him. JAG first mentions it in #602. So the "wolf buying trust for someone who they knew was going to die anyway" argument doesn't really fly as at this point, everybody thought Jeff was just a regular candidate for lynch here. This actually makes me trust Autumn a little more as well TBH.

[bhlloy]

Are we sure about McKerney's reveal? Votes to push mauboy ahead day 1. Breaks a tie between sal and jeff (known wolf) on day 2. And ties up Narc (who I can't see any reason to even suspect is wolf) and DV (known wolf) on day 3 after Jeff moves off DV.

I mean the reveal is a hugely ballsy move for any wolf to make. I don't know if I can believe a wolf would make that move. On the other hand - the voting record is as bad as it gets. I'm wondering if there's any way for a wolf/wolves to figure out that Apollonia wasn't in the game (with the Day 1 deaths) and that it would be a safe reveal to make?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Are we sure about McKerney's reveal? Votes to push mauboy ahead day 1. Breaks a tie between sal and jeff (known wolf) on day 2. And ties up Narc (who I can't see any reason to even suspect is wolf) and DV (known wolf) on day 3 after Jeff moves off DV.

I mean the reveal is a hugely ballsy move for any wolf to make. I don't know if I can believe a wolf would make that move. On the other hand - the voting record is as bad as it gets. I'm wondering if there's any way for a wolf/wolves to figure out that Apollonia wasn't in the game (with the Day 1 deaths) and that it would be a safe reveal to make?

From the rules:

Depending on size, not all roles will be in the game. The traitors will know which roles are in the game.

However, considering there are 19 roles and 19 players, I'm leaning towards all roles being in the game. If mckerney fake-revealed as Apollina, there would be no reason for a villager not to come forward with that information by now. So I stand by, if you think mckerney is a wolf, then you think there are 6 wolves. And even if you think there were that many, it doesn't make sense to chase the neutrals when there are two more pure traitors out there.