The Stock Market thread

[Lathum]

Ha!

Roblox is up 12% or about $9 after hours. I was able to get some at $67. Trying to decide if I hold it or sell for a quick profit.

[Edward64]

Futures are up strong. Nasdaq +1.90, S&P +.74% and Dow +.30%.

RBLX is a $45B company on first day. I don't remember the specifics of the Dot Com boom but feel there is a lot of froth right now. Someone tell me why "this time it's different".

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Ha!

Roblox is up 12% or about $9 after hours. I was able to get some at $67. Trying to decide if I hold it or sell for a quick profit.

Bastard.

[Fidatelo]

I couldn't get in on RBLX as my trading app didn't seem to show it until late in the day, and by then the price was already around $70/share. Not sure I like it at those levels. I'll sit on the side for a bit and see where it goes from here.


The GME drop yesterday was insanity. I sold 1 of my whopping 3 shares at $325 just to take some profit. Then not long after I see it drop and hit the first halt, and it was clear the game was afoot, so I literally said "fuck these guys" and put in a buy order to get my share back (yes, my hilarious single-share moves are not exactly sending any signals, but whatever). It executed at $291, and then I watched it fall another $100 with my mouth agape.


I'm not sure what today and tomorrow hold in store, but it should be interesting to say the least.

[Lathum]

I have about 3K worth of Roblox. Trying to resist selling it and buying 10-15 shares of GME and hoping it goes crazy again.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have about 3K worth of Roblox. Trying to resist selling it and buying 10-15 shares of GME and hoping it goes crazy again.

GME was on sale again this morning (in theory, triggering the short sale rule). Less so now

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

GME was on sale again this morning. Less so now

Pretty obvious manipulation by whales on our side after the initial retail buying to push it down below 238.5 and get it placed on SSR for both all of today and all of tomorrow... doesn't prevent them from using shorting to try and contain it, but it does make it much harder, and I think it prevents them from doing the same thing they did yesterday. Then whoever is on our side just pushed buy volume to get it back to "green" for the day. Seem content to let it consolidate there for now, not sure when they'll make the next push but I'd bet they make it run over $300 today - not sure if they'll attempt to top the $350 wall today or wait for tomorrow, but that seems to be the line the shorts really, really fear. (January drop was also from $356 to ~$180 - $350 seems to be the mark where huge shenanigans occur, so I'm not sure if that means the first margin call domino would happen just beyond that or what, but it is a pattern now.)

[NobodyHere]

I need to take my next stimulus check and just throw it into GME

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I need to take my next stimulus check and just throw it into GME

May I suggest BMBL is a better long term bet?

Up +10.9% today, I'm back in the black.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Edward64

May I suggest BMBL is a better long term bet?

Up +10.9% today, I'm back in the black.

Bitcoin might be the best long term bet.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Pretty obvious manipulation by whales on our side after the initial retail buying to push it down below 238.5 and get it placed on SSR for both all of today and all of tomorrow... doesn't prevent them from using shorting to try and contain it, but it does make it much harder, and I think it prevents them from doing the same thing they did yesterday. Then whoever is on our side just pushed buy volume to get it back to "green" for the day. Seem content to let it consolidate there for now, not sure when they'll make the next push but I'd bet they make it run over $300 today - not sure if they'll attempt to top the $350 wall today or wait for tomorrow, but that seems to be the line the shorts really, really fear. (January drop was also from $356 to ~$180 - $350 seems to be the mark where huge shenanigans occur, so I'm not sure if that means the first margin call domino would happen just beyond that or what, but it is a pattern now.)

Hand up, I was wrong (again)... not about the whales on "our" side (Vanguard/BlackRock,etc) driving it down to 238 then driving buy volume back to 280, but about their future plans. I understand why they don't want eyes on what's happening, I understand why they'd rather slowly bleed Citadel etc, but I really don't understand why they don't want to put 1/10th of a percent of their buy power into GME for a minute & jump it.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

May I suggest BMBL is a better long term bet?

Up +10.9% today, I'm back in the black.

That app's interface doesn't even work... I've been on it for years & never had a match!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Racer

Bitcoin might be the best long term bet.

I definitely believe digital currency is the future (e.g. China is going to make it happen).

I'm not convinced cryptos are though. I do have a small position in GBTC (a bitcoin "trust", whatever that means). It's been doing well but high fees.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

That app's interface doesn't even work... I've been on it for years & never had a match!

I think that means it is working

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I definitely believe digital currency is the future (e.g. China is going to make it happen).

I'm not convinced cryptos are though. I do have a small position in GBTC (a bitcoin "trust", whatever that means). It's been doing well but high fees.

I doubt Bitcoin ever becomes a widely used currency. Something can't become a currency if most people who own it see it as something that will appreciate in value the longer they hold it.

What I think it has a good chance of doing is becoming preferred store of value comparable to gold. Gold's market cap is about 10x to 11x that of Bitcoin's currently so I think it has a lot of room to grow still. It also helps when people like Elon Musk get behind Bitcoin. I think it gives it more legitimacy.

[Lathum]

Going to apologize in advance to anyone who has GME. I bought 10 shares pre market hoping it goes up early and I can make a quick profit.

that means it will tank completely.

[sterlingice]

Lathum: "$10 on black!"

I guess this goes along with the meme "Sir, this is a casino"

SI

[AlexB]

Might be worth a read for some

Why the GameStop story is far from over

[wustin]

Quite possibly the biggest scam of all time. Retail sitting on shares not making money thinking they will get a big pay day while these institutions continue to make billions from the stock volatility going up and down.

[wustin]

dola

my portfolio has taken a hit the last month (it's down over 25% right now) had I just took the risk and liquidated most of my positions at losses and took the GME bait when it was around $120-125 I would be up a lot of money. Hell when Ryan Cohen tweeted that stupid ice cream cone and the price jumped up to $145-150 I should've fomo'd in there.

[Edward64]

I'm slightly down YTD and that is with 401k contributions (so down even more without). I shifted from dividend growers to more tech focused mutual funds/ETFs so paying that price right now.

APPL has been a disappointment this year so far.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by wustin

Quite possibly the biggest scam of all time. Retail sitting on shares not making money thinking they will get a big pay day while these institutions continue to make billions from the stock volatility going up and down.

Originally Posted by wustin

dola

my portfolio has taken a hit the last month (it's down over 25% right now) had I just took the risk and liquidated most of my positions at losses and took the GME bait when it was around $120-125 I would be up a lot of money. Hell when Ryan Cohen tweeted that stupid ice cream cone and the price jumped up to $145-150 I should've fomo'd in there.

LoL this seems a little schizophrenic and angry...

It's a risky play (very much so at current prices vs the $40-50 range I initially got in at), but it's an asymmetrical investment where the upside is 10x or more in the next couple weeks & the downside is a stock that would still be a decent long term play at half it's value. I have a stop loss set on some shares at a point I make 2x my initial investment (in less than a month), and I'm not counting my unrealized gains as real money, but they're already more than the 401k from my current employer despite 2 years of full matching contributions.

The true scam is HF's trying to short viable companies into bankruptcy because when they short them into bankruptcy they not only don't need to cover their shorts but they also don't even need to pay taxes on the profit because they technically cover the position. A true scam is someone betting against a company, then just creating fake shares to avoid any losses, until there's 3x the entire float of the company allegedly in people's hands. I'm not sorry they finally got caught with their hand in the cookie jar for something they've been doing for decades now that also contributed to the 2008 crash, I'm not sure they'll actually be called to account for this one or they will be able to sweep it under the rug with help from a toothless SEC and a compliant media, but the idea that this is a scam or that people like me are being completely misled and will lose $$$ here is a joke. It's tough to get accurate data, but the latest shows that institutions own 167% of the shares that are supposed to be available - and that doesn't even count retail holders. Of course other parts of Wall Street are the ones who will make most of the $$$ here - and it should be telling that BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley aren't closing their positions and in some cases (MS) they've been buying millions more shares - but it sure seems to be making $$$ for me so far, and if it helps expose some of the more corrupt practices and possibly takes down one of the most corrupt entities in Citadel I'm all for that too! (Though yes I do worry a lot of the diamond hand cultists will be caught bag holding in the end, but frankly that's not my problem, and if anything that actually gives me some peace of mind that this stock won't bottom out down to the levels it probably should go until Ryan Cohen etc start making more concrete changes, but will instead stay comfortably in the 3 figures.)

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm slightly down YTD and that is with 401k contributions (so down even more without). I shifted from dividend growers to more tech focused mutual funds/ETFs so paying that price right now.

APPL has been a disappointment this year so far.

So Fidelity approved me for options trading... I'm gonna do some more DD, but I think I'll dip my toe in the water with a 125c on AAPL, just not sure if I want to go for a riskier short term play ($158 for a 3/26 125c) or put more $$$ down on what I feel is a much safer play ($825 for a 7/16 125c). Leaning towards the short term one because I feel like stimmy checks are going to re-inflate the market again & Apple stock always runs up pre-earnings because of their high dividend, plus you have some of the TA stuff I'm trying to learn where it looks like a MACD crossover is about to happen. (J/k I don't know what that means yet.)

Either way, I'm too excited not to try it, but I'm also very aware that Rule #1 of Options Trading is that if you don't lose half your portfolio in the first month you're ahead of the game!

[sterlingice]

Just a moron who started reading about them a couple weeks ago but it seems like newbies should stick with calls only and not puts. Calls, you're just out the call price if you screw up but puts can really leave you hosed.

SI

[sabotai]

Bitcoin over $60k today for the first time and Ethereum is close to its all-time high as well.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Just a moron who started reading about them a couple weeks ago but it seems like newbies should stick with calls only and not puts. Calls, you're just out the call price if you screw up but puts can really leave you hosed.

SI

Selling/Writing Naked Puts yes (infinite loss potential, same as shorting), but they don't (and shouldn't!) let me do that. Buying Puts is the same as Buying Calls - if I Buy a 3/19 Put on AMC at $11.50 I'd be paying $157 up front, but I have no downside risk past that. (And that is a steep price because of the high IV - I'd basically need AMC to drop below $10 sometime next week to make that profitable, or at least down into the mid-10's by EoD Monday so I could turn around and sell the contract back for a small margin.)

Cash Covered Puts aren't terrible though - take a high IV stock like AMC, find a price you'd be happy to own it at (I'll use $7 for this example), and then I get $8 basically for free, with my biggest possible downside being having to spend $700 to buy 100 shares Friday if it's at or below that price. Now that's not exactly a WSB type play (and I actually don't even know if Fidelity will require me to set aside the cash, or if I could just liquidate other positions Friday if I need the $700), but while 1.13% return doesn't sound sexy, compounded 52x that's >100% RoR.

Covered Calls are another low risk lower reward play. You do need 100 shares of the stock to play, so let's take a low priced stock like Nokia, trading at $4.22 right now. It's one that's fine for the long term (they suck at phones which people associate them with, but they're really good at 5G infrastructure) and I could easily get up to 100 shares, but doesn't have explosive potential, and outside of getting caught up in the January memestonk hype (it's not a meme stock or a high short interest one) it also doesn't move - it basically trades between $3.80-$4.30. But I like it as a long term play even though I don't expect it to rise much this week. So if I put my $422 worth of stock up as collateral (and I can't sell it during the week) I'll again get $8 up front, I have zero downside risk (from the contract - the stock itself could still drop, but I've already decided I'll hold the stock regardless), but it does cap my upside. If the stock price runs up to $6.00 this week I'll only make $36 ($8+$28 for $4.22-$4.50) instead of $178, but I'm content trading the upside for grinding out $8 guaranteed. Which again, doesn't sound like much, but compounded over a year that's 278%.

Options definitely can be dangerous, and they're more known for moonshot YOLO's right now, but there seem to be a lot of safe(r) bets that could work even in a risk-averse portfolio if you understand them. Even with my Nokia example, if I like them that much as a longer term play I could buy a $4.50 1/21/22 option for $61 right now (and that was probably like $40 2 days ago when it was trading at $3.90) instead of buying 14 shares, and if it runs up to $6 at literally any point between now & then I could sell for >100% profit, whereas my 14 shares would've only made me $25ish, or like 40% profit. It's basically a leverage play without using margin or risking disaster.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Also, my daughter sold off her remaining HL shared at 6.60, missing the absolute high by only a few pennies. Maybe she's a savant.

We're now into electric trucks, via DPHC, effectively the old Lordstown Assembly plant in Ohio being converted to new use.

Well, a few months later, this company is back in the news... they're the latest target of a shady short-selling operation aptly called Hindenburg Research, apparently a handful of assholes who short a stock then spread rumors about them to sink the price. Cool cool.

Fun reads on teh twitterz if you have the stomach for it:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%24RIDE&src=typed_query

I already have one tranche, and missed my chance to sell pretty high... I'm now back to roughly where I started. (As is my daughter) Thinking about getting back in today and double-barreling it.

[QuikSand]

$RIDE closed at 14.78 after flopping on Thursday/Friday after the Hindenburg hitjob. Seems like an opportunity for a short squeeze... no real GME upside, I don't think, but a chance to double up seems in play, for sure, if the company is legit. (Depends on whom you ask)

[QuikSand]

$RIDE up to over $16 today, solid +8% bounce back. They are going to issue formal responses to the Hindenburg allegations this week.

Sounds like the central argument is their publication of pre-orders (of their electric trucks) from various companies... Hindenburg says it's misleading since they are not binding orders; Lordstown says of course they're not, duh. (Paraphrased)

[BishopMVP]

Hindenburg is definitely shady and times their press releases to profit off the drops, but some of their DD is on point - Nikola being the most obvious example.

[Edward64]

BMBL up 6+% today. TSLA and ARKK up 1.7+%. And my bell weather stock APPL up 2.45%.

Nice, good day for the markets.

[sterlingice]

A fun sideshow alongside the tournament will be watching what happens with GME today. Could be something, could be nothing. Expecting crazy short attack. Not sure what the whole "quad witching" thing will do. I have to think HFs may even want to make it go boring since some of the DD has pointed to 3/19 as /the day/ for the MOASS (though that's seeming unlikely because that DD is well known). Over at r/GME, two of the three biggest names there got banned and/or hacked, trying to shut down the daily chart watching thread, among others.

SI

[NobodyHere]

What's DD and MOASS stand for?

[sterlingice]

DD = "Due Diligence" - basically research that falls somewhere between legit market due diligence and wall street fan fiction

MOASS = "Mother of All Short Squeezes" - that's the theoretical event that GME people are waiting for; the theory is that the previous couple of highs were just gamma squeezes leading up to a giant short squeeze (because HFs shorted more than 100% of all shares and they still have yet to cover)

SI

[NobodyHere]

Is it public knowledge how many GME shares are being shorted right now and when they have to give the stocks back?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Is it public knowledge how many GME shares are being shorted right now and when they have to give the stocks back?

Long story short, no. Short interest is supposed to be reported every 2 weeks, but there are ways to hide it by shorting ETF's, buying Puts, or just straight up lying because the fines are laughably low. Truthfully no one even knows how many shares are "owned" because no one has to report numbers outside of quarterly 13F's (or monthly if it's a change by people who hold more than 5-10% of a company's stock).

Originally Posted by sterlingice

A fun sideshow alongside the tournament will be watching what happens with GME today. Could be something, could be nothing. Expecting crazy short attack. Not sure what the whole "quad witching" thing will do. I have to think HFs may even want to make it go boring since some of the DD has pointed to 3/19 as /the day/ for the MOASS (though that's seeming unlikely because that DD is well known). Over at r/GME, two of the three biggest names there got banned and/or hacked, trying to shut down the daily chart watching thread, among others.

If I wagered I'd put $$$ on boring sideways trading into a fight for $200, but I hope I'm wrong! Only definitive time I'm banking on is the 5pm Tuesday earnings call when GME/Cohen can publicly talk instead of dropping bread crumbs. Definitely interesting that the two highest profile charting people were both reported and temporarily banned, also interesting that CNBC's feed of the congressional hearing specifically cuts out the 20 minutes when Citadel was being discussed in a negative light, but there's nothing to see here, they're totally covered & out, move along.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

If I wagered I'd put $$$ on boring sideways trading into a fight for $200, but I hope I'm wrong! Only definitive time I'm banking on is the 5pm Tuesday earnings call when GME/Cohen can publicly talk instead of dropping bread crumbs. Definitely interesting that the two highest profile charting people were both reported and temporarily banned, also interesting that CNBC's feed of the congressional hearing specifically cuts out the 20 minutes when Citadel was being discussed in a negative light, but there's nothing to see here, they're totally covered & out, move along.

Welp, I was wrong This is why I don't gamble on stocks, only bet on sure things like GME... and if this thing crosses $230 look out.

Btw, this seems bad for the market as a whole Federal Reserve to End Emergency Capital Relief for Big Banks - WSJ

[albionmoonlight]

[sovereignstar v2]

Is that a WSB moderator lol

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Welp, I was wrong This is why I don't gamble on stocks, only bet on sure things like GME... and if this thing crosses $230 look out.

I'm gonna go ahead and try to double reverse jinx this by saying see I told you it was just gonna be a fight over a $200 strike in the end!

(Also I don't care much about AMC, got some money & got out, but that's acting like a penny stock today and looks like a huge fight looming over whether it'll finish above $14.00.)

[sterlingice]

Yeah - what the hell was up with AMC today? That was funky and with some really high volume

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yeah - what the hell was up with AMC today? That was funky and with some really high volume

SI

Idk, I'm sure that's entirely normal market movement and nothing to see here. 143m volume & a 4m share buy wall at $13.93 in the last minute haha. Oh well, someone also spent tens of millions to make sure GME closed >$200, unlike AMC it did, & DFV seemed happy about it, on to Tuesday's earning's call!

[Edward64]

Welp, 60 days into a Biden administration and I can honestly say the market didn't turn out the way I thought. I assumed a good jump overall with good news on vaccination, more predictable president, Yellen etc.

[sterlingice]

GME lol

"Go home, you're drunk"

SI

[Edward64]

Yeah, hoping for a nice bump this week for TSLA (but who knows) and that'll help my ARKK holdings which has been sucking.

Tesla Inc.’s quarterly sales zoomed past expectations, leading one analyst to call them a “drop the mic” number despite earlier Wall Street worries about chip and parts shortages that have plagued the auto industry.

Tesla TSLA, -0.93% “yet again defied the skeptics and bears,” Dan Ives with Wedbush said in a note Friday.

The strength in the quarter was driven by Model 3 and Model Y sales, he said. Wall Street had braced for the impact of shortages on Tesla sales, making the above-expectations sales “a massive homerun in the eyes of the bulls,” Ives said.

[Flasch186]

I have a lot of people around me socially nd professionally who think we're right around the corner from uncontrolled unfettered inflation and they don't know how it gets wrangled without substantial tapering and interest rate hikes to smother the fire.

[Edward64]

Yeah, I read market (especially tech) has been sucking, and one major concern is inflation. I've read that the Fed's top fear is inflation and so they watch it pretty carefully.

Somewhat unpredictable is what will $2T (or $2.5T) of jobs/infrastructure plus another future $2T will impact inflation. Beats me.

Fed officials said they anticipate inflation of 2.4% by the end of this year — up from the 1.8% inflation rate they predicted in December. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, inflation is expected to be 2.2%.

For most of the last decade, inflation has fallen short of the Fed's 2% target. Prices of some goods are likely to jump more than that this year, especially when compared to the early months of the pandemic when prices were depressed. But Fed officials say any increase is likely to be temporary, and not a sign that runaway inflation is at hand. By 2022, inflation is expected to fall back to 2%.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I have a lot of people around me socially nd professionally who think we're right around the corner from uncontrolled unfettered inflation and they don't know how it gets wrangled without substantial tapering and interest rate hikes to smother the fire.

Inflation has been pretty bad for the last few years, especially last year, but it's somehow not included in the number of formulas out there tabulating it. Housing has skyrocketed in so many places, sure. But all sorts of everyday household items have gone up substantially in recent history.

SI

[JPhillips]

Inflation is about 2% and interest rates are near zero. Runaway inflation isn't a concern.

[Brian Swartz]

Yep. It hasn't been above 2.5% since 2011. Recent years are not at all what bad inflation looks like.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Inflation has been pretty bad for the last few years, especially last year, but it's somehow not included in the number of formulas out there tabulating it.

What are you basing this on? The consumer price index includes a wide variety of areas.