WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I agree, but DC linked herself to nfg22 when she defended him day 1. I think from a pure WW aspect we find out more by lynching one of them.

Lathum, you're putting a lot of stock into nothing.

Seriously.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

is there anyone who has not been scanned at all? I can certainly help get a duplicate scan in on them with you if there are any. I'm tired of Lathum getting all the attention

I posted a list of people who were not scanned N0 a while back. In fact, it was in reply to one of your posts.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Well with Path clarifying that neither the Teacher's Pet nor the Class Clown know their true roles I'm more inclined to vote no lynch so we don't eliminate a very useful role at this point. I think we should try and at least get one more day of data points either as a group or as individuals IMO

Or we can vote for one of the two people that we know is not either one.

Also, now that we know the teacher's pet doesn't know his identity, I'm putting a stop to my plan, which was to make sure nfg gets lynched tonight. Since Pumpy was so sure of his scan, I thought he was hinting to being the teacher's pet, but if he doesn't know, that theory is out the window.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Or we can vote for one of the two people that we know is not either one.

You made this argument before, and I still don't understand - with only one person's identity revealed, how can we be sure that anybody is neither the Pet nor the Fool?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy.

Sure, if I was voting for good-guys maybe that isn't enough, but I look at it right now as you'd be in the pile of "People I don't need to worry a ton about"

KnowwhatI'msayin'?

I'd like to see how you arrived at that "less than 20%" figure.

[RendeR]

One thing bothers me about all our assumptions. based on statistical probability, the average scanning ability SHOULD equal 50% for the entire group of us.

But since its rolled randomly, thats not necessarily true now is it?

What if the random rolls for our skill levels were all under 50%? Or all Over 50%? How the hell can we really build any type of theories when we just don't know?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Exactly. Allegedly all 3 of us scanned Grey and got a result that he was Good and he ended up Good.

I thought you were eliminating N0 scans?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I posted a list of people who were not scanned N0 a while back. In fact, it was in reply to one of your posts.

I meant after N1 pass, sorry.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OK, but you can't use this logic AND also say that we aren't going to give any credit to N0 scans. I'm not saying you, Cronin, are specifically one of the ones that said that b/c I'm kind of in a rush so I don't have time to go back and search for that post...but I remember someone said that we shouldn't "count" N0 scans at all. I'm just saying the logic can't go both ways...

No idea who to vote for at this point, but I agree that we have to lynch someone tonight.

Ah, I see olie's got my back. It was The Heinz who said he was eliminating N0 scans, then mentioned these "true" scans. I don't discount that the scans were good (I had already mentioned them a few pages ago), but I also didn't say anything about eliminating N0 scans.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

You made this argument before, and I still don't understand - with only one person's identity revealed, how can we be sure that anybody is neither the Pet nor the Fool?

You probably just tuned it out, since it involved N0 scans. Both CR and Mr. Wednesday scanned the same person N1 that they did N0, and their results were different.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You probably just tuned it out, since it involved N0 scans. Both CR and Mr. Wednesday scanned the same person N1 that they did N0, and their results were different.

Gotcha.

[Lorena]

Well, since we're discussing scans, wouldn't that be another reason to lynch Lathum, so we can have some idea of how it works? He's had the most scans of anyone out there.

For the record, I changed my mind and scanned Barkeep again just to see how this plays out.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

One thing bothers me about all our assumptions. based on statistical probability, the average scanning ability SHOULD equal 50% for the entire group of us.

But since its rolled randomly, thats not necessarily true now is it?

What if the random rolls for our skill levels were all under 50%? Or all Over 50%? How the hell can we really build any type of theories when we just don't know?

We're hoping to get an idea of someone's accuracy, through death. For example, we know that cronin, MikeVic, and The Heinz scanned grey. He came up good, and grey was good. So it's likely that their scans are higher.

Now as we get more data, we'll have a better base to build on. Tomorrow, some people might be 0/3 1/3 2/3 or 3/3, or in the case of CR and MW, they could be 1/4 2/4 or 3/4 -- the more data we get, the better our estimate of their skill will be.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I meant after N1 pass, sorry.

I don't have that on me -- but I figured you could use that as a base to figure out who's never been scanned. I think I posted a list of N1 scans somewhere, with the only scan missing being cronin's scan of me.

[oliegirl]

VOTE NFG22

I'm usually suspicious of Lathum, but I just don't see it right now...might come back to bite me in the ass, but for now, it makes a lot more sense to me to vote for NFG. I think he's made some mistakes, and if he is a wolf, they are common "rookie wolf" mistakes, the same ones I made the 1st (and only) time I was a wolf. I'm also suspicious of DC, but am willing to give her the beneift of the doubt right now.

[saldana]

i havent played with nfg before that i recall, so part of this is my own applied value to players, but a bigger part of it is the bit from yesterday...i have voted for (and led) lynches on day 2 based on alot less...i would have been equally as comfortable voting DC....the ridiculous graphic and outburst when no one had even voted for her yet was the kind of over the top reaction i have seen wolves pull bunches of times. (and even done myself)

vote nfg

[st.cronin]

7-4 nfg now.

[Lorena]

Soooooo..... everyone's voting nfg because.... what again?

I have a terrible way of getting my point across because no one seems to get what I'm saying. How many people scanned nfg? 1 person? how many people scanned barkeep? 4 people? how many people scanned lathum? was it 6? I mean if information is what we're going after, wouldn't it make sense to lynch the person who's had the most scans on them?

If we're lynching nfg because he made a "mistake", that's a very poor excuse, imo. I'm not defending the guy, i'm just saying if we want answers to the mechanics of how the scans work, we should look for alternative.

if nfg goes down and is a villager, what have learned? nothing.

[st.cronin]

Dunno if this is important, but the two players Pass pointed out as being "safe" votes haven't yet voted.

[nfg22]

Can someone show me what mistakes I made, so I know in the future how not to get caught? Oh wait. I forgot Im not a wolf. Seriously, what persay mistakes did I make? I used the words even though...that is all.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by saldana

i havent played with nfg before that i recall, so part of this is my own applied value to players, but a bigger part of it is the bit from yesterday...i have voted for (and led) lynches on day 2 based on alot less...i would have been equally as comfortable voting DC....the ridiculous graphic and outburst when no one had even voted for her yet was the kind of over the top reaction i have seen wolves pull bunches of times. (and even done myself)

vote nfg

yes, you lead the charget to get me lynched because I sent DT an IM as a reminder to vote.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

yes, you lead the charget to get me lynched because I sent DT an IM as a reminder to vote.

yeah, that was wolf-like behavior. lol


out 4 da night.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Soooooo..... everyone's voting nfg because.... what again?

I have a terrible way of getting my point across because no one seems to get what I'm saying. How many people scanned nfg? 1 person? how many people scanned barkeep? 4 people? how many people scanned lathum? was it 6? I mean if information is what we're going after, wouldn't it make sense to lynch the person who's had the most scans on them?

If we're lynching nfg because he made a "mistake", that's a very poor excuse, imo. I'm not defending the guy, i'm just saying if we want answers to the mechanics of how the scans work, we should look for alternative.

if nfg goes down and is a villager, what have learned? nothing.

bold is mine

if you arent defending him, what exactly do you call what it is you have been doing all day...someone has to get lynched...thats how this works

you havent provided any reason to vote for anyone else, or a legitimate reason NOT to vote for nfg...all you have said is you dont think our reasons are good enough....fine...i dont think your reasoning that my reasons arent good enough are good enough.

[st.cronin]

Saldana, I don't want to speak for DC, but her point about lynching somebody with more than one scan is certainly reasonable.

[nfg22]

Can I just say it now? You are all being duped and I will give four answers why.

1) Reasonably we want to figure out who is reliable. Lathum has the most votes, he provides the best opportunity.

2)We also want to vote for someone that has a few wolf votes. Yes, I know they arent reliable but if they are we just let one get away. Lathum has three wolf votes against him.

3) Not only am I not a wolf but I offered everyone to scan me. Lathum...umm...didnt.

4) Not only are you all voting against me, but it is because Lathum(the lead candidate) told you all to. Does anyone think he is biased?

I realize I am biased, but I also am right. Now if you vote for me, just promise you will kill him tommorow when you find my true identity pls thx.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

As for you, I am actually hoping you are a wolf - otherwise I think we lose the teacher's pet tonight. Or, another possibility is that one of the wolves has an ability to distort scans in some way. I guess I'm just a little weirded out by your scan results last night.

That's fine be weirded out. But your paranoia that we're going to lose the teacher's pet because of some masterstroke by the wolves does not seem grounded in reality. I'm not saying we won't lose the tp/cc but I'd assign it a lower probability than you (and probably substantially so).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

7-4 nfg now.

Who has 4? I see 3 for DC and 3 for Lathum.

[st.cronin]

You're right, Pass, my mistake. 3 each for DC and Lathum.

[st.cronin]

For the record, I think nfg makes a compelling defense. This vote does not seem likely to be helpful, in my estimation.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

For the record, I think nfg makes a compelling defense. This vote does not seem likely to be helpful, in my estimation.

Let's do it, bra.

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE LATHUM

[MikeVic]

The way I see it right now is:
-If nfg's lynch sticks and he ends up villager, I trust DC more and will pay close attention to Lathum.
-If nfg's lynch sticks and he comes back wolf, I don't trust DC.

[st.cronin]

In the case of a close vote, I'll throw my vote behind one of Pass, Lathum, or Barkeep.

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE LATHUM

[st.cronin]

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)
Lathum - 5 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882)
No Lynch - 3 - mauboy1(733), The Jackal(736), SnDvls (762)
Passacaglia - 1 - ntndeacon(738)
Dodgerchick - 1 - jeheinz72 (764)

No vote: RendeR, Chief Rum, Mr. Wednesday

[RendeR]

So I read this as 5-5 now?

[RendeR]

Doh, nevermind =)

[nfg22]

Pay close attention? When I turn up a villager you will pay close attention? Are you serious? Lathum has been dead set against me with no info other then as a scapegoat. Mike...What evidence does he have against me? one wolf vote. What do I have against him? 3 wolf votes....

[RendeR]

Let's make this closer and see what shakes out.


VOTE LATHUM

[Mr. Wednesday]

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

[nfg22]

Saldana, Claph....I cleared both of you...how are you still against me?

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

If they are wolf scans and I am a wolf...then why didnt I hop on board? You deny information by mere assumption that they are wolf scans...This is ridiculous. I hope you are sorry tonight at 10.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

That seems a bit hyperbolic.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Can I just say it now? You are all being duped and I will give four answers why.

1) Reasonably we want to figure out who is reliable. Lathum has the most votes, he provides the best opportunity.

2)We also want to vote for someone that has a few wolf votes. Yes, I know they arent reliable but if they are we just let one get away. Lathum has three wolf votes against him.

3) Not only am I not a wolf but I offered everyone to scan me. Lathum...umm...didnt.

4) Not only are you all voting against me, but it is because Lathum(the lead candidate) told you all to. Does anyone think he is biased?

I realize I am biased, but I also am right. Now if you vote for me, just promise you will kill him tommorow when you find my true identity pls thx.

1)this is not incorrect

2)this is not incorrect

3)he certainly did...numerous times...he offered himself, and offered zero resistance when he was placed on the "scan list"....you on the other hand, showed regret at the possibility of being scanned

4)no he didnt...he wanted people to vote for dodgerchick...the only reason he is voting for you is because no one wanted to follow him and more people were picking you without his, or anyone elses, encouragement.

nice defense...next time actually try having your facts straight....you keep saying you arent a wolf, but half-truths like this are the staples of wolves trying to get themselves off the hook

[saldana]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Pay close attention? When I turn up a villager you will pay close attention? Are you serious? Lathum has been dead set against me with no info other then as a scapegoat. Mike...What evidence does he have against me? one wolf vote. What do I have against him? 3 wolf votes....

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)
Lathum - 5 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882)


i will say it again...lots of other people were on you way before lathum was.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Wolf scans aren't evidence of anything.

They're no more valuable than villager scans, you mean? I can agree with that. But all the scans on Lathum have got to tell us something at the end of the day.

[nfg22]

Yeah...well why would I clear you and claph if I were a wolf?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Yeah...well why would I clear you and claph if I were a wolf?

Easy, to gain trust.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Yeah...well why would I clear you and claph if I were a wolf?

Wolves like to clear, or otherwise vouch for, villagers to:

a) gain the trust of the villager they're clearing
b) drop hints that they are the seer (in a game with just one seer)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by saldana

1)this is not incorrect

2)this is not incorrect

3)he certainly did...numerous times...he offered himself, and offered zero resistance when he was placed on the "scan list"....you on the other hand, showed regret at the possibility of being scanned

4)no he didnt...he wanted people to vote for dodgerchick...the only reason he is voting for you is because no one wanted to follow him and more people were picking you without his, or anyone elses, encouragement.

nice defense...next time actually try having your facts straight....you keep saying you arent a wolf, but half-truths like this are the staples of wolves trying to get themselves off the hook

Could you elaborate on 1 & 2?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Wolves like to clear, or otherwise vouch for, villagers to:

a) gain the trust of the villager they're clearing
b) drop hints that they are the seer (in a game with just one seer)

But dropping in people as a wolf has all sorts of advantages that clearing people don't have.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

They're no more valuable than villager scans, you mean? I can agree with that. But all the scans on Lathum have got to tell us something at the end of the day.

I agree with you there, my main concern is that I think Lathum's had a lot of positive contributions in the short time that this game has been underway, and I'm not thrilled about losing him. In particular, I don't like the way that he's been maneuvered into being the "best information" candidate. I don't know that there's anything untoward there, but there's good cover for it.