WW LII -- Clue (SOCIALITES WIN)

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Neon: I'm not sure about that proposal as it would mean the wolves would be able to have a much higher percentage of finding Plum (their seer).

HOWEVER, I would suggest that perhaps Green wants to come forward as I don't think he'd be a threat to the wolves and then we'd have two people in the COT (Peacock and Green).

The seer isn't as unexpendable now as in other games. He actually could add more to the CoT when Scarlett reveals. We have a HUGE numbers advantage, and the chance to trim down the suspect list to about half the game population on day 3.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Come to think of it... the wolves now have a hard time, since the murderer is dead and the chase is now on them.

They should have tried to protect st. cronin early on, if at all, to prevent this kind of scenario from shaping up.

I'd agree. If I have time I'm going to try and see who might have defended cronin.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just got home. Glad I was right about Cronin pretty much all along. I am guessing that it is pretty likely that the seer scanned either Saldana or I last night. I'm not going to tell the seer how to play his role, but dont worry about coming out to save me if you scanned me..

The way I think we play this is everyone either lynches Saldana or myself. Dont make it run away , keep it close. We'll see if the wolves try to save their own or not. If you all decide to lynch me, my death will make it clear who to go for tommorrow. If you all decide to lynch Saldana, then you'll know I am telling the truth.

I think either way you have a sure wolf here between the two of us, a seer reveal only saves one day but with no Bodyguard it condemns them to death.. So I personally think you shouldn't come out to save me or condemn Saldana, just let people vote where they will and we'll have something to go on hopefully tommorrow.

I would advocate a conditional order by Mrs. White. "If the lynch victim turns out to be a villager, kill other lynch candidate" sorta order. Then we take care of both of you in one day (if the lynchee ends up a villager), or we keep the villager among you alive if we lynch the wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm so serene...I've got a TV in every room.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

i say we wipe the slate clean between saldana and you. we're not hunting the murderer anymore. we need to get us some wolves.

I don't understand what you mean.. Saldana lied about his initial PM. Why would he do that if he was a villager, unless he just wasnt playing with the team? I can only think of wolf here.. if we're hunting a wolf, the villagers have to assume one of us is.. I can't see any possible alternate plan other than killing one and then the other if he turns up villager.

I personally would love to not die in this game, so would hope people lynch him, but my point is I think right now its best to keep it close, see if the wolves try to save their own, and not put the seer at danger just yet. When Saldana dies, the wolves will have even more of a handicap to overcome in the night kills.. We dont need to panic, just play it slow and patient and we'll win h ere.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

but combined with the lack of certainty of a wolf kill and the high #'s of trust that should bring us, we ought to be fine to find the last whatever...3 wolves (especially as we feel we have a good lead with the alan/saldana thing)

The seer could stay hidden, that's his perogative. Not reveal his role, and just scan the people not in the trust list, and then reveal when he's trimmed the list down even more.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would advocate a conditional order by Mrs. White. "If the lynch victim turns out to be a villager, kill other lynch candidate" sorta order. Then we take care of both of you in one day (if the lynchee ends up a villager), or we keep the villager among you alive if we lynch the wolf.

Yeah, if Pass allows that it wouldn't be bad.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

i say we wipe the slate clean between saldana and you. we're not hunting the murderer anymore. we need to get us some wolves.

Umm, no. One of them lied. Regardless of the reason, that needs to be checked out.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would advocate a conditional order by Mrs. White. "If the lynch victim turns out to be a villager, kill other lynch candidate" sorta order. Then we take care of both of you in one day (if the lynchee ends up a villager), or we keep the villager among you alive if we lynch the wolf.

i say Scarlett do her reveal, maybe Alan T and/or Saldana are skilled socialites, and then go from there.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

You want to name her after Scarlett reveals? Go ahead. I'm going to be voting in line with whoever Scarlett reveals to be the good guys anyway. That'll make 7 legit good guys in my book.

I would be happy to

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Umm, no. One of them lied. Regardless of the reason, that needs to be checked out.

Because there's a reason to lie in this game. I'm not saying either is good or bad, but lets wait if Scarlett does her reveal, and move then.

[DaddyTorgo]

no fans of primates here?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Because there's a reason to lie in this game. I'm not saying either is good or bad, but lets wait if Scarlett does her reveal, and move then.

Well, obviously if information Scarlett reveals shows one or the other to be good, then that changes things. But in and of itself, no way in heck do we disregard that one of them lied.

Until we know they lied for a "good" reason, we assume they lied for a bad one; i.e. they're a wolf.

Frankly, I am stunned you want to just look past it.

[Telle]

You know.. I've got a theory.. hmmmmmmmm.

VOTE ALAN T

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Telle

You know.. I've got a theory.. hmmmmmmmm.

VOTE ALAN T

care to elaborate?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Telle

You know.. I've got a theory.. hmmmmmmmm.

VOTE ALAN T

Yeah, suggesting you have a theory and not following up with anything but a vote is pretty much a good way to get yourself lynched.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, obviously if information Scarlett reveals shows one or the other to be good, then that changes things. But in and of itself, no way in heck do we disregard that one of them lied.

Until we know they lied for a "good" reason, we assume they lied for a bad one; i.e. they're a wolf.

Frankly, I am stunned you want to just look past it.

I said we wait. Then we move.

If Scarlett does her reveal, and then shows that neither is part of the CoT, then we can confidently vote one or the other based on how we percieve them.

[saldana]

yes it would save my ass, but why not let me name mrs peacock, and save you all the trouble of lynching me tomorrow.

as a boring as socialite, i would be able to do it with no problem

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, suggesting you have a theory and not following up with anything but a vote is pretty much a good way to get yourself lynched.

I don't care too much to be honest at this point. yesterday I was willing to give myself up in a 1 for 1 to get Cronin, so if we can get 2 bad people with my death, then I will consider that a minor victory for me in this game

(Sorry had to get a dig in there, it was all in fun though!)

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, suggesting you have a theory and not following up with anything but a vote is pretty much a good way to get yourself lynched.

Yeah, I know.. but I can't explain it yet. If I'm wrong about Alan then my theory is crap and I'll tell you what I was thinking.

[Barkeep49]

*NOTE: I started writing this post 20 minutes ago and info might have changed since then*
I believe in those who reveal first, so I'll go with Alan.

I do wonder why the lie and why specifically DT. Any thoughts about why, whether it was Alan or saldana did the lying about DT?

Vote saldana

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

*NOTE: I started writing this post 20 minutes ago and info might have changed since then*
I believe in those who reveal first, so I'll go with Alan.

I do wonder why the lie and why specifically DT. Any thoughts about why, whether it was Alan or saldana did the lying about DT?

Vote saldana

My theory is in relation to that.. and thus my vote for Alan.

[Barkeep49]

Telle I don't get why you don't just share your theory? I mean even if it doesn't indicate Alan or saldana being guilty it makes sure it's out there in case you get targeted, as the wolves seem to be unafraid of targeting somewhat random people.

[RendeR]

There is no good reason for Mr. Green and Mrs. peacock to be revealed.

If Saldana can reveal peacock, let him clear himself. then the focus lands on Alan.

Mr Green can reveal without incident and a CoT can be begun with those two and move from there.

Plum must remain hidden as should scarlett until at least 1 wolf is found.

[RendeR]

err, there is no good reason for them NOT to be revealed...damned typo...

[RendeR]

Mrs. White should hold off on using her 1 kill at this point, perhaps until at least tomorrow night. if we can narrow things down a bit more we should have this game wrapped up fairly quickly.

[DaddyTorgo]

dunno if it will help your theory or what telle...but I'm Mr. Green.

[RendeR]

Somehow i knew that. not sure why, but in the back of my head I knew you had a major role.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

dunno if it will help your theory or what telle...but I'm Mr. Green.

It's irrelevant to my theory.. but at least now I can move you from "probably good" to "known good" in my spreadsheet

[Telle]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Somehow i knew that. not sure why, but in the back of my head I knew you had a major role.

My note regarding that.. "alluded to being a named socialite? (645)"

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Somehow i knew that. not sure why, but in the back of my head I knew you had a major role.

that's why I was trying to back you off path too RendeR. Because I got 2 scans in last night, on ntndeacon and on path, so I knew neither one was the murderer.

one or both could still be wolves though.

and that's of course why I was driving the whole viewing-thing. I might have hung back on driving it a little, but it became clear that if I could control it so to speak, and get the information all together, we'd be able to narrow it down real quickly to where I wouldn't have to worry about my safety

[DaddyTorgo]

and that is of course why I have no idea who peacock is

[RendeR]

*nods* you did good.

[DaddyTorgo]

thanks. I know I was only half-a-seer in this game, but it's the first time i've had any seer powers and not totally screwed them up.

[LoneStarGirl]

My pm to Pass tonight had a player in the attic with the hammer...I just didn't put st cronin... although I wanted to.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

My pm to Pass tonight had a player in the attic with the hammer...I just didn't put st cronin... although I wanted to.

Thats hilarious...so did mine.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

My pm to Pass tonight had a player in the attic with the hammer...I just didn't put st cronin... although I wanted to.

damm. You shoulda. That woulda been hot

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by RendeR

There is no good reason for Mr. Green and Mrs. peacock to be revealed.

If Saldana can reveal peacock, let him clear himself. then the focus lands on Alan.

Mr Green can reveal without incident and a CoT can be begun with those two and move from there.

Plum must remain hidden as should scarlett until at least 1 wolf is found.

And have us grasping at straws and theories while the wolves mop us up, when we could have a confirmed 6 legit villagers and start from there?

Scarlett revealing would be the most logical move, so we can paint the wolves into a corner.

[RendeR]

Well it wouldn't have won anything, but it woulda been hella funny.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Telle

Yeah, I know.. but I can't explain it yet. If I'm wrong about Alan then my theory is crap and I'll tell you what I was thinking.

Isn't your theory what it is no matter how Alan turns out? Why judge the theory after the fact? Why not throw it out there now, and see if anyone else sees your logic in it? It would be much better than just letting that vote sit.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

And have us grasping at straws and theories while the wolves mop us up, when we could have a confirmed 6 legit villagers and start from there?

Scarlett revealing would be the most logical move, so we can paint the wolves into a corner.

No neon, scarlett revealing gets our seer killed and limits the villagers. Don't try and grab the whole bag in one shot. Green and peacock are a good starting point, and people they can trust will add to that. Hopefully after another day we'll bag us a wolf and then I think the numbers would make it safe for us to let scarlett reveal and then we really roll.

I'm basing this on there being at LEAST 3 wolves out there. If there are only 2, we could go ahead with your idea right now, but I can't see there being so few. I'm worried their may be 4.

[Telle]

How does Scarlett's reveal get the seer killed? She wouldn't say WHICH character a person was, just that they were a "named socialite".

[RendeR]

15 players left

IMO at least 3 wolves, leaving 12

5 of those 12 are primaries

7 random nameless socialites


It makes sense that we could make a go of it, but what happens when our day 3 or 4 lynches just kill nameless ones? now we're getting closer to a wolf win and by then they may well have our seer.

Lets get 1 wolf, then I think the numbers work.

[RendeR]

It makes it a 1 in 5 shot instead of a 1 in 12, not great odds.

[Telle]

5 named socialites + 1 unamed (who names peacock) + 1 unamed (scanned by seer, assuming 50% chance of seer scanning an unnamed on each night) = 7 people in CoT. That seems like a damn good thing to me.

[Telle]

And if there are three wolves, it would take them four days to whittle that CoT down to where they couldn't be outvoted. And I would HOPE that we would catch at least one of them by then.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

It makes it a 1 in 5 shot instead of a 1 in 12, not great odds.

Hmm, but it would give us a proven CoT of five. Do you think there are five wolves left? Those five alone could put the wolves to bed. Toss on the nameless villagers who will recognize Peacock among the five, and they will be voting with us, too.

No, I'm leaning more toward Neon's thinking on this, maybe with the seer holding back for a day first before revealing.

[Telle]

And that's ROCK SOLID circle of trust too.. not just a "I feel pretty good about these guys" thing.

[Barkeep49]

I'm not convinced that the wolves can't name Peacock.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by RendeR

It makes it a 1 in 5 shot instead of a 1 in 12, not great odds.

That's the odds of the wolf getting the seer. Who, is not as unexpendable when we practically have an uber-seer role in Scarlett who can clear five people in one go.

Yeah, and if peacock is named correctly, that's 6 legit vilagers. 9 unnamed.

If there are 3 wolves, that's

3/9 shot of lynching a wolf, rather than 3/15.

I would risk them finding the seer at 1/5 odds, if we can get a wolf with a 1/3 chance.

That's a 33% chance to lynch a wolf on day 3.

I would take that. Most definitely.