The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[Thomkal]

Yeah this judge doesn't fool around-hope he lets her sit in jail for a night or two

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A young Trump supporter was kicked out of Trump's victory celebration after he posted a picture of himself and Alina Habba at the party.

Earlier that day Habba had told a judge she was sick and needed to take precautions after a covid exposure so the trial was postponed. I can't wait to hear what the judge says about this.

I saw it was a staffer.

[Lathum]

Navarro gets 4 months. I’m sure he’ll be on the bannnon timeline.

[Schmidty]

I was listening to NPR this morning, as I do most mornings, and noticed something. They never seem to refer to Biden’s policies and decisions as Biden’s policies and decisions. They refer to it as the “Biden Administration’s” policies and decisions. Then I was thinking back to Obama and Trump and from what I remember, media of all types didn’t do the same thing nearly as often.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Would love it if she just drops out and doesn't endorse him, but she will likely kiss the ring anyway. between tim scott and her, not sure which has been more humiliated more. it would be great if both were out of SC politics along with graham

And McMaster, and Mace, and Timmons... alas...

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Navarro gets 4 months. I’m sure he’ll be on the bannnon timeline.

defense tried to say he had accepted responsibility for his crime and should get a reduction in time when he has never to date accepted any responsibilty for what he did. And he won't have biden to pardon him. hope they can use this as a guideline when bannon gets sentenced for this.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

And McMaster, and Mace, and Timmons... alas...

yeah sadly we have a lot of MAGA lunatics here in SC

[Atocep]

Trump mad Haley won't conceded and is pushing the RNC to just name him the nominee is on brand, funny, and ironic at the same time.

[RainMaker]

It's kind of insane that no reporters are asking Trump or Haley about their connections to Boeing.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's kind of insane that no reporters are asking Trump or Haley about their connections to Boeing.

Do you think it would make a difference or matter to anyone?

[flere-imsaho]

Outside of a few select outlets, the 4th estate is dead. No one's going to ask questions that would threaten their access.

[Atocep]

After seeing Trump on the campaign trail the past couple weeks I'm 100% with Joe Scarborough that Trump's team is keeping him away from the debate stage to hide his decline. He's lost a few steps from 2015-16.

Confusing Haley with Pelosi is the most obvious case and one that's not easy to explain away like they have with the Obama/Biden mixups. He's definitely slurring his words more often and sometimes struggles to speak. He's not as bad as they make Biden out to be, but he's definitely not the same guy that entered the white house.

[Edward64]

Interesting thought process. I don't agree with his chances but I'd be happy if there was a "real" third party threat to actually win the presidency. But probably won't really be a real threat but more of just hurting Joe more than Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/28/polit...els/index.html

Sen. Joe Manchin says he “absolutely” can see himself as president.

Privately, the West Virginia Democrat has told people that a Joe Biden health scare or a Donald Trump conviction could give him an opening to run as an independent this year.

In public, during stops in states such as New Hampshire, South Carolina and Georgia, Manchin says he believes there’s a role for him as a national icon in the “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate” middle, comparable with the role Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders plays for the progressive left.

[miami_fan]

The U.S. will never have just a "real" third party. We have seen it is much easier to just take over one of the existing parties with a coalition of single issue voters. If there ever was a decision to move beyond D's and R's, I think it is much more likely that we have four or five "real" parties in addition to those two parties based on those single issues.

[albionmoonlight]

I saw a game-theory explanation of why the US system does not allow a third party to thrive long term. I forget the ins and outs, but the short of it is that it is always more rational to divide into two groups. Even when you have an issue like slavery that temporarily creates a new party, you quickly end up back with two survivors.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: I think that at this point, Haley's best bet is to just keep attacking Trump gloves off style. If she's got the Koch money behind her, she can keep going as long as she likes. And her only chance is if he basically becomes incapacitated, and considering how he's responding to her, there's a better chance of that if she keeps being one of his stressors.

[JPhillips]

She does have the potential of leading the post-MAGA GOP after a Trump loss, but to do that she has to be courageous enough to never endorse and I doubt she'll hold out.

[GrantDawg]

Interesting interview from Penn Jillette on why he is no longer a Libertarian and his view of Trump.
https://www.cracked.com/amp/article_...t-all-out.html

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Interesting interview from Penn Jillette on why he is no longer a Libertarian and his view of Trump.
https://www.cracked.com/amp/article_...t-all-out.html

His observation that Trump has never made or laughed at a joke and tying a sense of humor to empathy is interesting.

[GrantDawg]

Thought so as well. It is believable.

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[Lathum]

WOW…thought I’d never be typing this out in my life but here we are….Colin Cowherd is out here dropping truth bombs about Taylor Swift and calling out her haters in a very worthwhile 4 minute segment on @TheHerd today �� pic.twitter.com/rEFafzBSA6

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) January 30, 2024

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Atocep

After seeing Trump on the campaign trail the past couple weeks I'm 100% with Joe Scarborough that Trump's team is keeping him away from the debate stage to hide his decline. He's lost a few steps from 2015-16.

Confusing Haley with Pelosi is the most obvious case and one that's not easy to explain away like they have with the Obama/Biden mixups. He's definitely slurring his words more often and sometimes struggles to speak. He's not as bad as they make Biden out to be, but he's definitely not the same guy that entered the white house.

At least Trump isn't having Mitch McConnell-level freeze-ups yet.

[molson]

If we get debates in the general election they're going to be bonkers.

[GrantDawg]

I can't stand Cowherd, but this time he is dead on. Unfortunately I don't believe that is his real opinion. I don't think he has real opinions. He just puts out whatver will piss people off the most to drive clicks/gain attention. Cowherd, Skip Bayless, Stephen A Smith, I would rather listen to static than any of those morons.

[RainMaker]

#NEW @MorningConsult / Bloomberg News Poll:

WISCONSIN
Trump 49% (+5)
Biden 44%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 47% (+5)
Biden 42%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 48% (+3)
Biden 45%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 49% (+10)
Biden 39%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 49% (+8)
Biden 41%
.
NEVADA…

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 31, 2024

[albionmoonlight]

You should go to predictit, bet on Trump, and double your money: PredictIt

[Thomkal]

i'll see your polls and raise you Rainmaker;


https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1752800977587929236


in other words too close to tell if there's a trend or not

[molson]

Get your bets in before Taylor Swift makes her endorsement.

[Lathum]

I think as it becomes a more binary choice between the two, people are just going to find the constant crazy of a Trump presidency too exhausting.

[GrantDawg]

It isn't going to be binary. I don't think Robert Kennedy is going to pull 20%+ like he is in some polls, but he is going to hit close to 5%. Maybe a little more. With these margins, it will be significant.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

i'll see your polls and raise you Rainmaker;

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1752800977587929236

in other words too close to tell if there's a trend or not

I've seen some stats folks talk about how Trump winning the popular vote and Biden winning the EC is a distinct possibility. Honestly, that would be the funniest outcome.

[RainMaker]

I'm very curious to see where RFK ends up. He's been pretty quiet and running a baffling campaign. But polls have shown he hurts Trump more than Biden.

[Lathum]

Fair point on RFK but I feel like he would get a lot of never trumper types. I think very few Ds or Is vote him.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by molson

Get your bets in before Taylor Swift makes her endorsement.

If Taylor Swift were to enter the race i bet she would get more than a few electoral votes.

BTW she turns 35 this year.

[Kodos]

Erm...

[GrantDawg]

"Fair point on RFK but I feel like he would get a lot of never trumper types. I think very few Ds or Is vote him."
It seems like the polls agree, but the Trump financial supporters don't. Tim Mellon, who has given $20 million to Trump's Super Pac just gave $15 million to RFK Jr. Super Pac. All of his money is coming from the Right.

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[RainMaker]

Mellon is a moron trust fund baby. A lot of those folks just throw away money on garbage candidates because they are inherently dumb.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I've seen some stats folks talk about how Trump winning the popular vote and Biden winning the EC is a distinct possibility. Honestly, that would be the funniest outcome.

That would be damn scary for this country if after everything Trump has put it through since leaving office, more people would vote for him.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

That would be damn scary for this country if after everything Trump has put it through since leaving office, more people would vote for him.

There's actually another path to the "winning the popular vote": his vote total could be lower than 4 yrs ago BUT Biden's could be even more lower.

I'm not predicting that outcome mind you (I'm convinced he has no chance of winning, due to the "Hillary effect"), just tossing as a possible path

[GrantDawg]

This is some cynical but probably good political strategy right here. Adam Schiff is running ads claiming that Steve Garvey, a far-right Republican, is a "leading candidate" in attempt to boost him in the race. He is actually fighting for second with Katie Porter, and Schiff doesn't want to face Porter in a run-off. He would kill Garvey head-to-head. Personally I was disappointed Schiff ran. I was hoping Katie would breeze into the Senate. Heck, I would love to make her and her white-board President and Vice President.

Among the two leading candidates for U.S. Senate — there are two very different visions for California.

Watch our latest ad ⤵︎ pic.twitter.com/mCm6LT1P3o

— Adam Schiff (@AdamSchiff) February 1, 2024

[JonInMiddleGA]

Holy crap, that IS "that" Steve Garvey.

I'd completely forgotten he was in politics now.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Holy crap, that IS "that" Steve Garvey.

I'd completely forgotten he was in politics now.

No kidding. I was surprised as well.

[JPhillips]

Sure seems like the GOP is moving to an agreement that states have a right to secede.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

There's actually another path to the "winning the popular vote": his vote total could be lower than 4 yrs ago BUT Biden's could be even more lower.

I'm not predicting that outcome mind you (I'm convinced he has no chance of winning, due to the "Hillary effect"), just tossing as a possible path

This seems to be the analysis I've seen. That both Trump and Biden would receive less votes and voter turnout will be down considerably. Biden would see his margins in blue states like California, New York, and Illinois shrink significantly. It's not enough to put any of those states remotely in play, but even a couple percentage point shift in a high-population state is a lot toward the popular vote tally.

There's also a belief that he'll lose Nevada due to demographic shifts. And Michigan is in deep trouble due to its high Arab population.

[GrantDawg]

January gets another job report way above what was expected, nearly twice as high as projections. Wages are up 4.5% over last year as well. With consumer confidence also getting higher and higher, it is no surprise that polls are trending back toward Biden.

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[Lathum]

I think the GOP has realized going after Hunter is a losing proposition. I haven't heard a peep about him lately. It's all about the border now.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think the GOP has realized going after Hunter is a losing proposition. I haven't heard a peep about him lately. It's all about the border now.

Yep. Brown people bad. It’s the standard GOP boogeyman ploy

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think the GOP has realized going after Hunter is a losing proposition. I haven't heard a peep about him lately. It's all about the border now.

They have so few things to campaign on now that the economy is good, abortion rights are more important to women voters than they expected, and they can't find one real impeachable thing on hunter and joe. So its down to the border and making up stuff about how horrible it is. i even saw recent chatter on putting a wall on our northern border too so those dangerous Canadians can't get in.

[molson]

Gas has been collapsing in price around me. Things seem a lot better at the grocery store too. Those kinds of things are probably the most important factors in this election if they continue.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by molson

Gas has been collapsing in price around me. Things seem a lot better at the grocery store too. Those kinds of things are probably the most important factors in this election if they continue.

I wish I could say the same. Gas was around the $2.70 range and now it's back over $3 bucks.