10-27-2009, 04:58 PM | #851 | |
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Quote:
First off, FYI Schmidty revealed that there are (were) a total of 4 wolves, so there are 3 and a cultist remaining. Two, why in particular do you call out MartinD? He voted for PB day 1 but when it was a 4-4 tie on D2 he voted for Abe. He hasn't posted much so there's not a lot to go on there. I'm just curious why you would single him out when there appear to be others with more suspicious voting history. |
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10-27-2009, 05:04 PM | #852 |
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Alright, we all know how great my instincts have been this game, but I want to explore something. There is no way, IMHO, that Hoops puts such an early vote on Abe if he were a wolf, too much of a risk, particularly for the cunning.
That said, I want to look at vote #1 on me as well as the person that asked me, sort of out of the blue, if I was enslutted. I purposely shared no information to see what would happen when I said nothing. That said, for now: vote JAG |
10-27-2009, 05:08 PM | #853 |
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Righht on the number I said 2 left if hoops was a wolf. I did not mean that to be as confusing as it was. I had not mentioned the cultist for no reason what so ever. We win even if he is alive and the wolves are all dead, right? So if we found him, great! But wolf hunting is more important.
I called out Martin because of his quiet nature. So it is exactly that he hasn't posted much that I looked his way. mind you I am not advocating voting him today. He is someone we should not just let waltz too much further without being challenged. |
10-27-2009, 05:08 PM | #854 |
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Votes as of Post #852:
Hoops 3 - Lathum (774), RA (801), JAG (826) CW 2 - Hoops (777), NTN (849) NTN 2 - Lerri (778), CW (841) JAG 1 - PB (852) |
10-27-2009, 05:08 PM | #855 |
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Anyone have a vote count?
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10-27-2009, 05:08 PM | #856 |
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heh, thanks JAG
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10-27-2009, 05:20 PM | #857 |
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I am not ready to vote hoops yet, although I would describe myself as an "interested observer" at the moment. He is a candidate I will take a closer look at once I get home.
But I want to get a vote in now, in case I can't get home in time or just run short on time. I was heavy after ntn yesterday, but in light of the Abe lynch and looking at how things developed, I am a little more comfortable with him being a villager now. To the eye looking without context, one would presume ntn's Abe vote yesterday was self-defense, but actually, he was one of the first three to vote on Abe, when candidates were still being established, and he himself had not yet received a vote. This doesn't clear him, but it moves my opinion of him a little more toward trusted. Which brings me to the exact opposite--ntn's Day 1 paramour, RA. he himself has noted how poorly his votes come off. His introduction of ntn as a candidate when Abe was on the verge of a runaway just does not come off well. When you combine that with moving away from ABe late on Day One, and the various vote changes, it's a rather wolfish combination. I am not going to vote fifth candidate at this point, but if there is enough interest between now and the deadline, I would certainly strongly consider Raiders Army. Sticking to the candidates at hand, if I am not yet going to vote hoops, and I am not inclined at the moment to vote ntn, I am going to vote CW. But it's more a vote of attrition--I'm not confident that the evidence here in enough to hang him, and also the primary person backing the argument is hoops. Sorry, PB, on JAG--I'll look more closely at him later. But I view it as a throwaway right now, until I see some more analysis put into a JAG vote. I will review this vote further when I get home later tonight. VOTE COFFEE WARLORD
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10-27-2009, 05:24 PM | #858 |
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This is tough.
hoops votes Abe early day 1. I wouldn't think a fellow wolf would give the cunning their first vote when he could've put it anywhere else, but it definitely could be a ploy to gain trust later if Abe ever went down, and there was no indication that Abe was going to be thrust into the lead. Day 2 he ties Abe up with NTN at 4, so that lowers my distrust slightly. CW, on the other hand, unvotes KWhit day 1 to tie Abe and PB at 6. Would a fellow wolf do that to the cunning? I have a very hard time believing so. There was no certainty that Abe was going down, and as we saw soon after PB revealed, people were very willing to move off Abe (most of which were likely villagers). But then on day 2 he votes to put NTN up over Abe 4-3. I'm not liking the way KWhit looks. Between his vote to put PB up day 1 and his meaningless vote day 2 he's on the radar. NTN unvotes RA to put PB up 6-4 day one, then unvotes PB after his reveal and votes for Telle. Day 2 he votes Abe early as a self defense measure, but I'm starting to think its possible we had wolf v wolf yesterday. I think finding out NTN's allegiance would be useful. Still thinking about where I want to go with this vote. |
10-27-2009, 05:28 PM | #859 |
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Looking at RA:
Votes NTN early day 1. Switches to put PB up over Abe 8-6 right before PB's reveal (looks bad). Switches to Abe after the reveal, putting him up 8-5 (wolf deciding Abe was done or just moving to the other candidate?). And then he also moves from Abe to Telle with the wave of people doing so. He's certainly under suspicion. |
10-27-2009, 05:29 PM | #860 | |
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Yup, herein is my problem with a CW vote. I am on there right now to keep it closer and because I don't want to push hoops too far along without further thought. But I don't see that move on Abe on Day One either. And Day Two combined with Day One doesn't scream guilt to me, so much as "doesn't know what Abe is". The circumstances/vote count called for me to put a placeholder vote on CW for now. But I am really thinking I am not going to be staying there. I'm not against a KWhit vote either. Jackal, what are your thoughts on what I was saying about RA?
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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10-27-2009, 05:30 PM | #861 |
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Just posted about RA, CR, take a look.
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10-27-2009, 05:30 PM | #862 | |
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Quote:
Heh, asked and answered.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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10-27-2009, 05:31 PM | #863 |
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Stop cross-posting me!
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10-27-2009, 05:31 PM | #864 |
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I forgot to include day 2 in my look at RA, he votes NTN to make it 3-1 Abe over NTN. Preventing a runaway or giving Abe a shot?
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10-27-2009, 05:34 PM | #865 |
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10-27-2009, 05:43 PM | #866 | |
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Quote:
You think CW looks better tying Abe-PB at 6-6 (and eventually helping to save Abe with a late switch) than RA looks bringing Abe to 8-5 (and eventually moving his vote off of Abe when it was less clear that Abe would avoid being lynched)? I'm not sure I agree with that. |
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10-27-2009, 05:44 PM | #867 |
High School Varsity
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Apologies for not posting more - have been finding it difficult to muster much enthusiasm for this game (through no fault of anyone involved in the game other than me). I suspect that I may take a bit of time off from WW after this one...
Today's been more about a lack of time, though - had something on after work today so was home late. I've been in the thread for a while since I got home, but have been doing a few other things - am just about caught up now. |
10-27-2009, 05:50 PM | #868 |
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OK, pouting over. I've likely got an hour or so in the thread now, and maybe 15-20 minutes later this evening when my kid has her bath. So if there is anything that people want to talk about with my play I'm happy to field those questions.
I guess maybe there is a lesson to be learned that after I left the thread some other people started picking up votes ... maybe sticking around and partaking in the conversation is not all that effective a way to "win" and doing the "quiet" thing is a more effective strategy? I really do not like drawing that conclusion because I don't think the game is particularly entertaining if the majority of players pursue that kind of "optimum" strategy. Oh well, back at it now. I do apologize unconditionally for letting off some steam earlier in the thread. |
10-27-2009, 05:51 PM | #869 | |
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I haven't compared people at all.. |
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10-27-2009, 05:52 PM | #870 | |
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And furthermore, I said that CW doing that makes me lean towards him not being a wolf. Read my posts. |
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10-27-2009, 05:52 PM | #871 |
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Ah, disregard that last post.
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10-27-2009, 05:53 PM | #872 |
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I'm not sure what you are saying, JAG, to be honest.
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10-27-2009, 05:54 PM | #873 |
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CW voting for Abe to put it at 6-6 definitely looks good for him. RA voting to put Abe up 8-5 does not necessarily look good for him, since it was post-PB reveal.
How are you saying RA looks better there? |
10-27-2009, 05:58 PM | #874 |
Coordinator
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Definitely correct me if I'm not following you here, JAG, I need to make an informed vote.
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10-27-2009, 06:05 PM | #875 |
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Looks like a possible 3-way contest today, with hoops, ntndeacon and Coffee Warlord in the frame...
Given that hoops and ntn are in the frame, I don't think that CW is the right way to go at this point - have more suspicion of hoops and ntn, and think that the village learns more by lynching either of those two. ntn's post earlier raised a few warning flags with me (and that has nothing to do with him pointing the finger in my direction, as that part of his post is perfectly justified, IMHO). VOTE NTNDEACON |
10-27-2009, 06:10 PM | #876 |
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Martin, why would you rate CW as less suspicious than me? Are you rating D1 votes as more significant than D2? Do you think that we had wolf-vs-wolf yesterday?
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10-27-2009, 06:14 PM | #877 |
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10-27-2009, 06:16 PM | #878 |
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How are you reading this, EF?
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10-27-2009, 06:21 PM | #879 |
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Hoops, I realize you might not want to answer this question, but it may be imperative to your survival. Do you have a role? I think you may have hinted something earlier, but I don't want to over read something.
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10-27-2009, 06:32 PM | #880 |
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GE, I have not hinted at any role because I don't have one other than the usual party guest.
As a semi-related point, I would prefer not to have a conversation about the contents of the vanilla villager PM. I do not know if they are unique or not but if they are not it can be a very slippery slope to building "unfair" trust. |
10-27-2009, 06:35 PM | #881 | |
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Quote:
Have another look at the post with my vote - my choice isn't really based on vote patterns, but what I think that we learn from lynching a particular individual. I don't think we (as the village) learn as much from Coffee Warlord as we do from either you or ntndeacon. Based on my current feelings, it would not come as a surprise if we had wolf versus wolf yesterday. Of course, my feelings could be completely wrong... |
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10-27-2009, 06:37 PM | #882 |
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So do you learn more from lynching me relative to CW because I post more? If not, then why?
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10-27-2009, 06:38 PM | #883 |
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There's a fine line to be drawn between voting for someone you think you'll learn the most from over voting for someone you think has the biggest chance to be a wolf. Careful there, that's not necessarily gonna help the village.
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10-27-2009, 06:47 PM | #884 |
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Hmm. 3-way tie with PB on JAG and 4 of us left to vote.
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10-27-2009, 06:49 PM | #885 |
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10-27-2009, 06:52 PM | #886 |
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Looking over things a bit now to see what I am missing, I have to be missing something.
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10-27-2009, 06:59 PM | #887 |
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Even though I sat down, had a few scooby snacks and thought about KWhit's odd behavior I just couldn't get myself to vote that way at the moment.
There is only one vote that makes sense to me at this time... but I'm going to wait just a little while longer. |
10-27-2009, 07:07 PM | #888 |
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OK, hopefully back for a few minutes in about an hour ...
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10-27-2009, 07:12 PM | #889 |
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Any read on Lathum?
For some reason I had a better feel for him earlier. Now I look back over his votes and "they no look so good". |
10-27-2009, 07:15 PM | #890 | ||
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Quote:
Quote:
As stated previously, I think that my Day 1 voting shouldn't be under question. I've explained myself (almost) ad nauseum. However, if you look at my Day 1 and Day 2 votes combined, then I think you have something there. All that being said, I still believed on Day 2 that Abe was okay and that going in that direction wasn't the wisest thing. Sometimes when you're playing the game you can be wrong, you know? (Then again, I was wrong on at least one vote of two so what do I know...) |
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10-27-2009, 07:17 PM | #891 |
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RA, I know you've explained how you viewed your votes, but we get to make our own judgements, as well.
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10-27-2009, 07:18 PM | #892 |
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I'm going to have to log for the night soon. I don't have a great feeling about voting for hoops, so I will move my vote to ntn. This may lynch me tomorrow (or tonight for all I know), but I've voted for him Day 1, 2, and now 3.
UNVOTE HOOPSGUY VOTE NTNDEACON |
10-27-2009, 07:19 PM | #893 | |
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Day 1 is tough, lots of movement. CR/EF/CR early, then votes Abe to bring it to 6-5 PB over Abe, then switched to Danny and leaves it there until the end. Then places the first vote on Abe day 2. I think that's enough to give him a pass for today, but we can take another look later. |
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10-27-2009, 07:20 PM | #894 |
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10-27-2009, 07:23 PM | #895 |
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I'll move both to avoid a joke and to make my vote relevant.
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10-27-2009, 07:25 PM | #896 |
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joke should have been followed with "of a tie"
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10-27-2009, 07:30 PM | #897 |
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I don't understand why you guys are voting for Coffee Warlord. I was voting for him yesterday when I thought Abe was a villager, but today it doesn't make sense, IMO. He put a vote on Abe to tie it with PB at 6 votes each on day one. That is enough right there to give him a pass for today, IMO.
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10-27-2009, 07:32 PM | #898 | |
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I agree. I won't be voting for CW today. |
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10-27-2009, 07:32 PM | #899 |
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I also think that Hoops' day 2 vote for Abe that tied it up makes him a less than ideal candidate tonight.
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10-27-2009, 07:34 PM | #900 | |
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Quote:
You have to imagine there was a wolf on Abe somewhere in there, but I agree, it's making me lean away from Hoops. Which really leaves us with NTN, and I do think it's very possible we were wolf v wolf yesterday, and we would learn a fair amount by knowing what side NTN is on. I may be leaning in that direction. |
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