POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Atocep

If a person that would otherwise vote Dem decides to not vote for a Dem candidate that is effectively a vote for the other party and vice versa.

This is sports team mentality, but from the blue side. I’ve voted in 5 presidential elections and I’ve voted blue 3 times and red twice. Everyone should reject sports team mentality. That is one of the big reasons we are where we are at now.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

Since you're going to post this 90 times.....
Name one elected federal judge.
Have you heard of Steve Bannon, Roger Stone or Stephen Miller?
If you're going to post idiotic conspiracy theories from craphole twitter, at least post some names or something? Why isn't Obama behind Biden's presidency? Is he not extreme or left minder enough?

Conspiracy…

They literally held the debate in June rather than Sep/Oct. Far out in advance of the election (first time ever) in order to at least have the option to replace him which they are literally talking about right now on CNN, MSNBC, and The NY Times (if those are okay sources for you). They did it for what reason if not for the health concerns? Just because?

He’s clearly suffered either from one or more TIA events (which are somewhat recoverable from) or he straight up has cognitive decline which would trigger the White House doctor to have him see a neurologist.
(Just like us regular folks do for our parents when they have these sorts of noticeable warning signs.)

Yes, we can only speculate (conspire?) about how that went as I believe the President is protected by medical privacy laws and is under no obligation to tell the public but meh, who cares right?

[RainMaker]

I think they had it early because his poll numbers were in the shitter and they hoped it would give him a boost.

His campaign has been run poorly although it's tough when your candidate has dementia. Also when party leadership likely finds it beneficial for Republicans to re-take the White House so they don't really care.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Conspiracy…

They literally held the debate in June rather than Sep/Oct. Far out in advance of the election (first time ever) in order to at least have the option to replace him which they are literally talking about right now on CNN, MSNBC, and The NY Times (if those are okay sources for you). They did it for what reason if not for the health concerns? Just because?

He’s clearly suffered either from one or more TIA events (which are somewhat recoverable from) or he straight up has cognitive decline which would trigger the White House doctor to have him see a neurologist.
(Just like us regular folks do for our parents when they have these sorts of noticeable warning signs.)

Yes, we can only speculate (conspire?) about how that went as I believe the President is protected by medical privacy laws and is under no obligation to tell the public but meh, who cares right?

I said stop with the conspiracy theories. Not one thing you said makes any sense at all. You aren't a doctor, I don't care what you think. Do you think trump is suffering from any mental decline or any disease, doc? Go speculate somewhere else. Some very fine people are saying bullshit. Why would Biden do a debate early if he knew he was going to fail?. It's rhetorical, no need to respond.

[Saul Goode]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

New CBS News poll

41% of Democrats and 80% of Independents say Joe Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as President

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) June 30, 2024

Chicken little, you forgot about the good poll, which doesn't matter.


Today's YouGov/CBS Poll:

Should Biden stay in the race? YES, 55%-45%

Should TRUMP stay in the race?
NO, 54-46%

[Danny]

Trump numbers just dont really matter. Hes getting his votes regardless. Biden has to get more votes. And he doesn't appear capable of that. He will likely only go down as we get closer. A replacement may start a bit lower but actually has a chance to go up and win

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by dubb93

This is sports team mentality, but from the blue side. I’ve voted in 5 presidential elections and I’ve voted blue 3 times and red twice. Everyone should reject sports team mentality. That is one of the big reasons we are where we are at now.

Voting 3rd party in a 2 party system is a wasted vote, regardless of what rational those who do so want to use. Those are the mostly the people I'm looking at. If you feel the other party's candidate is better in a particular election there's nothing wrong with that.

I was mostly speaking of the mindset of not voting or voting 3rd party. It's not a circular reasoning fallacy, which was kind of what was being implied.

[Atocep]

The funny thing is, Trump has shown more mental decline than Biden on the campaign trail. He's had multiple short circuits, can't name people, mixes people up, etc. He had a good day (for him) at the debate and Biden didn't so most aren't paying attention to the words Trump was actually saying, most of which didn't make any sense or had no meaning.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

I said stop with the conspiracy theories. Not one thing you said makes any sense at all. You aren't a doctor, I don't care what you think. Do you think trump is suffering from any mental decline or any disease, doc? Go speculate somewhere else. Some very fine people are saying bullshit. Why would Biden do a debate early if he knew he was going to fail?. It's rhetorical, no need to respond.

I am not a fan of the medical diagnosis everyone wants to make, but it has been speculated on several credible sites they scheduled it so far in advance for this very scenerio.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The funny thing is, Trump has shown more mental decline than Biden on the campaign trail. He's had multiple short circuits, can't name people, mixes people up, etc. He had a good day (for him) at the debate and Biden didn't so most aren't paying attention to the words Trump was actually saying, most of which didn't make any sense or had no meaning.

This is true but it doesnt matter. Trump could go up there in nothing but his underwear and answer every question by talking about the mating habits of sea creatures and his supporters will applaud and vote for him.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Danny

This is true but it doesnt matter. Trump could go up there in nothing but his underwear and answer every question by talking about the mating habits of sea creatures and his supporters will applaud and vote for him.

Compared to the option there's really not much rational choice.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The funny thing is, Trump has shown more mental decline than Biden on the campaign trail. He's had multiple short circuits, can't name people, mixes people up, etc. He had a good day (for him) at the debate and Biden didn't so most aren't paying attention to the words Trump was actually saying, most of which didn't make any sense or had no meaning.

I don't buy at all that "Biden lost the debate," frankly. Trump lied almost constantly. Being wrong is literally the only way you can lose a debate.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

Go speculate somewhere else.

For the most part, I do.

In any event, since you called me a doctor (Im not), if your mother or father showed signs of mental decline, I would strongly encourage you to have them see a neurologist. There’s nothing to be ashamed of and it wouldn’t hurt. Don’t ignore the signs because you aren’t qualified to treat it.

[RainMaker]

Taking the threat of fascism seriously.

Camp David: Biden family spent morning not having a summit but in hair and makeup for a shoot with Annie Leibovitz, Vogue photog who shot Biden/Obama/Clinton in March then suggested doing something informal with the Bidens. Family suggested this week, bc Hunter & family in town.

— Katie Rogers (@katierogers) June 30, 2024

[Edward64]

Looks like they did a lot of discussions this weekend and came up with a strategy.

Just a moment...

Based on our weekend conversations with top officials and advisers, here's the Biden survival strategy:

1. Dismiss "bedwetting."
2. Squeeze polls for juice.
3. Warn of chaos.
4. Limit dissent
5. Keep elected leaders close.
6. Get the donor class to chill
7. Prove vitality.
8. Ignore/engage the media.

Below is what Joe's team is hoping for. Sure, if below happens, I can maybe see it work out. In the markets, it's called "pricing to perfection", there's a lot of if's & maybe's. In the meantime, there's going to be continued angst, turmoil, second guessing etc. for the next 2 months.

What's next: Biden's kitchen cabinet sees a recipe for a narrow victory that includes a grand-slam speech at the Democratic convention in Chicago + a strong showing in the next second debate + positive economic news in the fall (maybe a Fed rate cut).

Apparently, Joe is keeping the prep team. That's ridiculous. Joe is too nice. At least bring in some fresh faces (Carville?) who can provide an outsider pov on the Sep prep. (And for God's sake Joe, learn to close your mouth while Trump is talking so you don't look like a senile Grandpa).

Some Biden friends and family blamed longtime aides who had prepped Biden. They complained about everything from data-heavy answers to his makeup to his briefing on camera angles.

But the president smoothed it over: He called former chief of staff Ron Klain, who led the team, and one of the things they talked about was that neither he nor the family blames the prep.

[Jas_lov]

He needs to do townhalls, interviews, take questions with the media. Get out there interacting with voters like when he went to the Waffle House. All of this within the hours of 10-4 of course.

[Ksyrup]

First headline I see - "Biden's family reportedly tells him to stay in presidential race as blame shifts to advisors."

Of course.

[QuikSand]

I have been really intrigued by the #NeverTrump wing of the old GOP since 2016, and Tim Miller is among the most lucid among them for my money.

hxxps://substack.com/home/post/p-146154328

(sorry the actual link broke the forum)

I am not sold that replacing Biden in some subterfuge is a viable plan, but I pretty much endorse him here. Stop pretending he's just great.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

He needs to do townhalls, interviews, take questions with the media. Get out there interacting with voters like when he went to the Waffle House. All of this within the hours of 10-4 of course.

He isn't able to and thats the problem

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I have been really intrigued by the #NeverTrump wing of the old GOP since 2016, and Tim Miller is among the most lucid among them for my money.

hxxps://substack.com/home/post/p-146154328

(sorry the actual link broke the forum)

I am not sold that replacing Biden in some subterfuge is a viable plan, but I pretty much endorse him here. Stop pretending he's just great.

Not arguing against Tim's premise, but I will say that I added a study note for "Gish Gallop" MONTHS ago (Brandolini's Law, too).

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

He needs to do townhalls, interviews, take questions with the media. Get out there interacting with voters like when he went to the Waffle House. All of this within the hours of 10-4 of course.

are there any Denny's left?

[Saul Goode]

Pelosi: Some health experts think Trump has dementia | CNN Politics

Some very fine people say trump has dementia!

[Danny]

Barring a Trump medical emegency I think Trump vs Biden is over.

[JPhillips]

The GOP might as well just hand the country over to Orban and be done with it.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Saul Goode

Pelosi: Some health experts think Trump has dementia | CNN Politics

Some very fine people say trump has dementia!

He probably does but it doesnt matter. The same rules just dont apply to him. Seriously its like some of you have never read or talked to a trump supporter. He is like jesus to them.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Danny

He probably does but it doesnt matter. The same rules just dont apply to him. Seriously its like some of you have never read or talked to a trump supporter. He is like jesus to them.

A woman I know at my gym, who I actually like as a person is one of them. She shared texts with me between her and a friend the day after the debate, with exultations such as "Go Donnie Go" and "Yes, Big Daddy T"

Are you fucking kidding me? And she knows I detest Trump and am not much fonder of Biden, but she was giddy since she thought that debate handed "Big Daddy T" the election. He can do no wrong with his base.

[CrimsonFox]

Still funny still appropriate

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

He probably does but it doesnt matter. The same rules just dont apply to him. Seriously its like some of you have never read or talked to a trump supporter. He is like jesus to them.

I know right? No one cared about Mitch blanking out several times.

All reps get a pass from problems or bad behavior. But you stain one dress and it's trail this trial that

[Edward64]

I accept that Presidents should have immunity for official stuff, makes sense to me. But is there good precedence or case law that lower courts or SCOTUS can determine if an action/act is ‘official’.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Danny

He probably does but it doesnt matter. The same rules just dont apply to him. Seriously its like some of you have never read or talked to a trump supporter. He is like jesus to them.

Trump is incredibly unpopular and would be beaten by anyone who wasn't halfway in the grave. I don't understand why people keep trying to make Trump out to be some popular politician. If the Democrats gave a shit, he wouldn't even be a factor.

[JPhillips]

Trump is not incredibly unpopular and he's currently polling above any Dem. What's his absolute floor, 60-65 million votes and 235 electoral votes?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump is not incredibly unpopular and he's currently polling above any Dem. What's his absolute floor, 60-65 million votes and 235 electoral votes?

This is unpopular. Any semi-competent politician would beat him.

Donald Trump : Favorability Polls | FiveThirtyEight

[JPhillips]

He's still polling 1-3 points ahead of everyone named.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

He's still polling 1-3 points ahead of everyone named.

I would hope he would be polling better than people who most of the country don't know and haven't spent hundreds of millions on a campaign. The fact people are 1-3 points behind Trump with no campaign is a sign of how weak Trump is.

I know you got burned by riding hard for Biden but this is just cope. Trump is a deeply unpopular candidate who has seen his handpicked candidates lose over and over in important swing states.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Trump is incredibly unpopular and would be beaten by anyone who wasn't halfway in the grave. I don't understand why people keep trying to make Trump out to be some popular politician. If the Democrats gave a shit, he wouldn't even be a factor.

The aspect your missing is how popular and beloved he is by that 40+%. He is extremely popular and revered with a huge portion of this country.

[Ksyrup]

Considering we've already seen Act I and are well-versed in the kind of person he is, I'd say he's polling about 25-30% above where any candidate should be. On those terms, he's incredibly popular. He's a known quantity and still polling as if he's a run-of-the-mill candidate running against a flawed incumbent.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I accept that Presidents should have immunity for official stuff, makes sense to me. But is there good precedence or case law that lower courts or SCOTUS can determine if an action/act is ‘official’.

See, even that statement is over-broad. There are somethings a President can do that others cannot, but there has always been legal limits to the Presidential powers. What I can't figure out is does this ruling really mean there is no legal limit to what a President can do in his "official capacity?" I mean, it is illegal for President to use the military as a police force under the Posse Comitatus act. If a President has complete immunity, couldn't he order the military to say shut down New York during the election? He is the Commander and Chief, so that would be under his official powers. I mean, they have already gave the example of having Seal Team Six assassinate a political rival. How is commanding the military into action not an official power? And if it is, what exactly are the limits?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Danny

The aspect your missing is how popular and beloved he is by that 40+%. He is extremely popular and revered with a huge portion of this country.

And those that dislike him are concentrated a handful of Blue States. Trump probably will lose the actual vote count, but he could still win the electoral college by a landslide.

[Edward64]

Well, if they don't have a good definition (or precedence or case law) for "official", then they better get one ... definitions matter

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Danny

The aspect your missing is how popular and beloved he is by that 40+%. He is extremely popular and revered with a huge portion of this country.

And lost by 74 electoral points to a historically bad politician.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

And those that dislike him are concentrated a handful of Blue States. Trump probably will lose the actual vote count, but he could still win the electoral college by a landslide.

This is just not true. He lost PA, MI, MN, AZ, NV, and even fucking Georgia in 2020. Some of those states weren't particularly close. And Trump has run his handpicked candidates in those states and they all got trounced.

I swear 2016 has screwed with everyone's perception. Trump's only victory was over one of the worst Presidential candidates in history and every election after that has been a disaster for him and his sycophants.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

And those that dislike him are concentrated a handful of Blue States. Trump probably will lose the actual vote count, but he could still win the electoral college by a landslide.

you're ignoring the part where trump's candidates are losing a LOT of elctions lately every single time. Conservative media loves to ignore/spin that

[JPhillips]

What a time to be alive when everyone is an historically bad politician.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

What a time to be alive when everyone is an historically bad politician.

Really going to argue that Hillary was a good politician?

[albionmoonlight]

Trump, personally, has always outperformed his polls.
MAGA, without Trump, has underperformed polls.
Trump hasn't been on a ballot since J6.
Trump hasn't been on a ballot since Dobbs.
Trump is polling well enough to win right now.
There are rumors of some pretty serious dysfunction in the GOP ground game.
Biden is a weaker candidate than 4 years ago when it was close.
Trump does not seem all there compared to 4 years ago.
Both guys are old enough that there could be a medical incident in the next 5 months.
Trump has to be sentenced in NY, and he tends to react poorly to stress.

Basically, I have no idea what's going to happen.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

What a time to be alive when everyone is an historically bad politician.

Fuck Taft!

[GrantDawg]

Btw, the idea of a floor challenge for Biden is not happening. They are going to officially nominate him well before convention by "virtual roll call" mid-July. They are having to so that because of shenanigans in Ohio, if they wait till the convention, he wouldn't have been on the ballot there.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Lathum]

Trump got more votes than any incumbent ever. I wouldn’t call a guy who got 74 million votes unpopular. Polarizing is a better word.

[RainMaker]

Losing New Hampshire would mean Biden has to take either Nevada, Arizona, or Georgia which he is down big in. Also kind of surprised how low RFK Jr is in this poll. I'd figure NH out of all states would be one he did a little better than normal.




[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Btw, the idea of a floor challenge for Biden is not happening. They are going to officially nominate him well before convention by "virtual roll call" mid-July. They are having to so that because of shenanigans in Ohio, if they wait till the convention, he wouldn't have been on the ballot there.

Ohio fixed that last month. It's not necessary.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...all-rcna154752