Front Office Football Central  

Go Back   Front Office Football Central > Main Forums > Off Topic
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read Statistics

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 04-29-2024, 05:10 PM   #851
Bobble
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: High and outside
Quote:
Originally Posted by Passacaglia View Post
I'm starting to become more okay with the Penix pick, but I still can't get past the hubris of "we don't plan to be drafting in the top 20 anytime soon" -- okay, 2018 is the last time you haven't drafted in the top 20, and you've done it six years in a row since, so I'm not sure I understand the confidence here.

As a Lions fan who has a lot of confidence in our front office (it feels weird just writing that), I'm trying to gage how I would feel if Brad and Dan did this. I still don't think I could get behind it. I didn't love it when the Lions took Hendon Hooker IN THE 3RD to do just about what the Falcons are doing here. Draft an older prospect QB to groom for the possible future. I get that Cousins is way older than Goff so that the Falcon's horizon is a lot closer but I still cannot see this as a smart use of resources.
Bobble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 05:15 PM   #852
weegeebored
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Even if you believe the ATL spin stories about why they drafted Penix, how do you draft a guy with four known serious injuries? Is he magically going to become less injury-prone as he gets older? One or two injuries you might attribute to bad luck -- might. But four...that we know of? If a team wanted to take a flier on him in the 3rd or 4th round, ok. But at 1.8?? Makes.Zero.Sense.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln

Last edited by weegeebored : 04-29-2024 at 05:16 PM.
weegeebored is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 05:28 PM   #853
Swaggs
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Passacaglia View Post
I'm starting to become more okay with the Penix pick, but I still can't get past the hubris of "we don't plan to be drafting in the top 20 anytime soon" -- okay, 2018 is the last time you haven't drafted in the top 20, and you've done it six years in a row since, so I'm not sure I understand the confidence here.

Kind of funny, but I was looking up the history of #8 overall picks to see how they have fared over the years and the Falcons have actually had that pick for three straight years now (Penix, Bijan last year, and Drake London in 2022) and have had it 4 times in the past 10 years (Vic Beasley in 2015). Overall, they have picked pretty decently compared to some of the other #8s.

Statmuse List: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/8th...icks-nfl-draft
__________________
DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!!
The RWBL
Are you reading In The Bleachers?
Swaggs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 07:04 PM   #854
Swaggs
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Steelers are apparently close to acquiring a “big time playmaker” that is supposedly a WR. The hope is that it may be Aiyuk or Debo from the 49ers, who both supposedly want paid, but I feel like the more likely option will be Tyler Boyd as a FA or Courtland Sutton from Denver, who seems crazy overpaid for his production. Really hoping it isn’t Sutton.
__________________
DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!!
The RWBL
Are you reading In The Bleachers?
Swaggs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 07:06 PM   #855
Swaggs
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Sorry, it was a “significant playmaker.”
__________________
DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!!
The RWBL
Are you reading In The Bleachers?
Swaggs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 08:12 PM   #856
Thomkal
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaggs View Post
Steelers are apparently close to acquiring a “big time playmaker” that is supposedly a WR. The hope is that it may be Aiyuk or Debo from the 49ers, who both supposedly want paid, but I feel like the more likely option will be Tyler Boyd as a FA or Courtland Sutton from Denver, who seems crazy overpaid for his production. Really hoping it isn’t Sutton.


Niners did draft a WR...
__________________
Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion!
10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time!
Thomkal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 08:48 PM   #857
Passacaglia
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
Quote:
Originally Posted by weegeebored View Post
Even if you believe the ATL spin stories about why they drafted Penix, how do you draft a guy with four known serious injuries? Is he magically going to become less injury-prone as he gets older? One or two injuries you might attribute to bad luck -- might. But four...that we know of? If a team wanted to take a flier on him in the 3rd or 4th round, ok. But at 1.8?? Makes.Zero.Sense.

Can't get hurt in games you don't play.

Rumors are that the Falcons are looking to do even more to avoid injury to Penix by stuffing him in a protective box while he's on the sideline.

Passacaglia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 09:02 PM   #858
Atocep
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
The reason the Falcons picking Penix is completely indefensible is because of the value of the rookie contract, which I think QS mentioned earlier. If he sits for 2 years, as planned, you get 1 year to see him play before you have to make a decision on the 5th year option. At that point he's no longer cheap. That 5th year is discounted, but no longer the insane value that comes with having a rookie 1st round qb during those first 4 years.

Also, keep in mind that if they release Cousins after 2 years they're eating $35 million in dead cap space. That is lost value against the cap because of Penix. With that in mind, at no point during his contract is he going to be cheap and playing for you.

If he's anything less than a really good/great QB that you don't hesitate to sign to an extension then it's a disaster. Not a bad pick. A disaster.
Atocep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 10:22 PM   #859
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
dude will break like a pinata. But I'll be around to sweep up all the sweet sweet candy.

Seriously can't wait til he busts and Cousins sinks. I mean this WILL affect Cousins mentally. He needs to have his agent find him another team.
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2024, 10:37 PM   #860
weegeebored
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by Passacaglia View Post
Can't get hurt in games you don't play.
Yeah...that's what happens when you have the training staff give feedback in the draft room. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
weegeebored is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 06:52 AM   #861
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
dude will break like a pinata. But I'll be around to sweep up all the sweet sweet candy.

Seriously can't wait til he busts and Cousins sinks. I mean this WILL affect Cousins mentally. He needs to have his agent find him another team.

Why would you root for a great kid to bust?
Lathum is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 08:19 AM   #862
Bobble
College Prospect
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: High and outside
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
The reason the Falcons picking Penix is completely indefensible is because of the value of the rookie contract, which I think QS mentioned earlier. If he sits for 2 years, as planned, you get 1 year to see him play before you have to make a decision on the 5th year option. At that point he's no longer cheap. That 5th year is discounted, but no longer the insane value that comes with having a rookie 1st round qb during those first 4 years.

Also, keep in mind that if they release Cousins after 2 years they're eating $35 million in dead cap space. That is lost value against the cap because of Penix. With that in mind, at no point during his contract is he going to be cheap and playing for you.

If he's anything less than a really good/great QB that you don't hesitate to sign to an extension then it's a disaster. Not a bad pick. A disaster.

All true. The other part of the argument is that "we'll never pick this high again so we won't be able to get a QB of this caliber." Even assuming you're correct on Penix's caliber AND correct that you are a top 10 team that can't really trade up from the back of the first round to get one of the top few rookie QBs (which I'm not sure is true), you can't tell me that you have no avenue to acquire a good QB. You just did it to get Cousins and you're telling me that he makes you this top team right now. < confused shrug/WTF emoji >
Bobble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 11:30 AM   #863
miami_fan
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Land O Lakes FL
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Why would you root for a great kid to bust?

To punish the Falcons for not picking a defensive player that they need?
__________________
"The blind soldier fought for me in this war. The least I can do now is fight for him. I have eyes. He hasn’t. I have a voice on the radio, he hasn’t. I was born a white man. And until a colored man is a full citizen, like me, I haven’t the leisure to enjoy the freedom that colored man risked his life to maintain for me. I don’t own what I have until he owns an equal share of it. Until somebody beats me and blinds me, I am in his debt."- Orson Welles August 11, 1946
miami_fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 05:03 PM   #864
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
I will not feel sorry for guys making millions to play a game
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 05:05 PM   #865
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
But yeah it's more about making fun of the falcons than anything.

they deserve all the hate they are getting.

Penix, meh...I don't think he can survive the NFL with all those major injuries that happened just at the college level. But he'll make some money and then be a backup somewhere.

So like why aren't they getting rid of astroturf yet since the wave of coddling the players from injuries seems to be all the rage.
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 06:10 PM   #866
dubb93
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
But yeah it's more about making fun of the falcons than anything.

they deserve all the hate they are getting.

Penix, meh...I don't think he can survive the NFL with all those major injuries that happened just at the college level. But he'll make some money and then be a backup somewhere.

So like why aren't they getting rid of astroturf yet since the wave of coddling the players from injuries seems to be all the rage.

It’s easy to write off Penix as being injury prone but let’s see how you hold up playing in the big 10 with Indiana’s line protecting you and Indiana’s skill position players trying to make plays for you.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
dubb93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 06:26 PM   #867
thesloppy
Pro Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: PDX
Tell your old man to drag Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes!
__________________
Last edited by thesloppy : Today at 05:35 PM.
thesloppy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 07:12 PM   #868
weegeebored
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by dubb93 View Post
It’s easy to write off Penix as being injury prone but let’s see how you hold up playing in the big 10 with Indiana’s line protecting you and Indiana’s skill position players trying to make plays for you.
What's the injury history for other Indiana QBs playing behind similar lines with similar skill players? And extend that stat out to QBs on other teams with similar lines and skill players? Do all of them have four season-ending injuries? The majority? Some? None??? Personally I don't care about ATL one way or the other, but making that move is stupid on so many levels. The only way the stink from this draft pick is removed is if Penix turns into a stud. Then I would just wonder why the Falcons paid Cousins. And why they waited 2(?) years to make Penix a starter.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln

Last edited by weegeebored : 04-30-2024 at 07:13 PM.
weegeebored is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 07:36 PM   #869
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesloppy View Post
Tell your old man to drag Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes!

Pppppppppppppppppppppppp I did a spittake at that. WELL DONE

Last edited by CrimsonFox : 04-30-2024 at 07:36 PM.
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 07:50 PM   #870
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
The Bengals have named their new Offensive Line "Cincinnati Skyline".
They got 3 6'8" 340+ guys now

A new WR and 2 new TEs plus some defense.

However, Something bothers me about Mims in my head. Like why he only started 8 games. Does he have an attitude issue? Like only will play on thursdays or something?


Will he last a whole season?

Last edited by CrimsonFox : 04-30-2024 at 07:50 PM.
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 08:06 PM   #871
GrantDawg
World Champion Mis-speller
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
He was playing behind upper classmen that are also now in the NFL, and then he had a severe ankle sprain that required surgery once he got the starting job. Can he hold up? That's a question. He is so big and so athletic that it's got to be tough on his legs.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
GrantDawg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2024, 09:07 PM   #872
NobodyHere
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
The Bengals have named their new Offensive Line "Cincinnati Skyline".

I want some chili now.
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney"
NobodyHere is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 08:07 AM   #873
albionmoonlight
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrantDawg View Post
He was playing behind upper classmen that are also now in the NFL, and then he had a severe ankle sprain that required surgery once he got the starting job. Can he hold up? That's a question. He is so big and so athletic that it's got to be tough on his legs.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I wonder if Terron Armstead is a good comp. His size and athleticism make him an all-pro level LT when he is healthy. But the human body isn't really designed to be that big and athletic, and he's always fighting one injury or another.
albionmoonlight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 08:38 AM   #874
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
After a lengthy back-and-forth with friends offline about the ATL Penix pick, I think I have come around to a new place on it.

The central question is really just about the QB position in the modern NFL. It's obviously important, pretty clearly the most important single position anywhere in major professional sports, and arguably dictates team success in an overwhelming fashion overall. Buying into this logic further and further toward the extreme side can send you into directions that start to seem irrational. (We've seen this debate in miniature in the last decade or two as merely good-enough starters sometimes get market-setting contracts, and more recently as we rethink what the QB market properly looks like as a % of the overall team salary cap...and maybe that needle hasn't even come to rest quite yet, looking at you Mr. Mahomes)

So, IFF you buy that "QB = nearly everything" then much of the logic that would sensibly apply to any another position just might go out the window. Continue to heckle the Raiders for targeting the standout TE after just acquiring a top TE last year, as an imperfect but current example - that's fine, TE isn't what determines the whole story. But, if QB is indeed basically what drives NFL success, then you basically take you shot any time you believe there's a solid chance of landing a top QB, period. Meaning that yes, even if you have made a financial commitment to a current veteran starter for the 2-3 years ahead, you still go ahead and draft a new guy if your scouting convinces you he may well be the real deal. If he is the real deal, even if it takes 2-3 years to see that and you will have missed out on getting value from him as a young/cheap starter, you could either walk into a high level still-young starter late in his rookie contract (a la Jordan Love) or you could perhaps parlay that promising young guy into a Browns-for-Watson overpayment from a QB-starved franchise elsewhere and reap back more draft capital than you expended initially.

I don't think I buy this overall, but... I think it's at least a coherent way to get yourself to "Falcons drafting Penix there was okay, or even smart." It's because QB is just so off-the-charts different that the normal logic and rules just can't apply to the process of acquiring a possible star there.
QuikSand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 08:43 AM   #875
dubb93
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by weegeebored View Post
What's the injury history for other Indiana QBs playing behind similar lines with similar skill players? And extend that stat out to QBs on other teams with similar lines and skill players? Do all of them have four season-ending injuries? The majority? Some? None??? Personally I don't care about ATL one way or the other, but making that move is stupid on so many levels. The only way the stink from this draft pick is removed is if Penix turns into a stud. Then I would just wonder why the Falcons paid Cousins. And why they waited 2(?) years to make Penix a starter.

Penix last season there was 2021. In 2022 Dexter Williams blew his knee out and missed 2023. In 2023 IU rotated QBs but Brenden Sorsby did get a shoulder injury against Penn State.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by McSweeny
Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
dubb93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 11:04 AM   #876
Kodos
Resident Alien
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Our line hasn’t been great. One of Penix’s injuries came as he ran untouched out of bounds. Just a fluky injury.
Kodos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 11:30 AM   #877
bhlloy
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
After a lengthy back-and-forth with friends offline about the ATL Penix pick, I think I have come around to a new place on it.

The central question is really just about the QB position in the modern NFL. It's obviously important, pretty clearly the most important single position anywhere in major professional sports, and arguably dictates team success in an overwhelming fashion overall. Buying into this logic further and further toward the extreme side can send you into directions that start to seem irrational. (We've seen this debate in miniature in the last decade or two as merely good-enough starters sometimes get market-setting contracts, and more recently as we rethink what the QB market properly looks like as a % of the overall team salary cap...and maybe that needle hasn't even come to rest quite yet, looking at you Mr. Mahomes)

So, IFF you buy that "QB = nearly everything" then much of the logic that would sensibly apply to any another position just might go out the window. Continue to heckle the Raiders for targeting the standout TE after just acquiring a top TE last year, as an imperfect but current example - that's fine, TE isn't what determines the whole story. But, if QB is indeed basically what drives NFL success, then you basically take you shot any time you believe there's a solid chance of landing a top QB, period. Meaning that yes, even if you have made a financial commitment to a current veteran starter for the 2-3 years ahead, you still go ahead and draft a new guy if your scouting convinces you he may well be the real deal. If he is the real deal, even if it takes 2-3 years to see that and you will have missed out on getting value from him as a young/cheap starter, you could either walk into a high level still-young starter late in his rookie contract (a la Jordan Love) or you could perhaps parlay that promising young guy into a Browns-for-Watson overpayment from a QB-starved franchise elsewhere and reap back more draft capital than you expended initially.

I don't think I buy this overall, but... I think it's at least a coherent way to get yourself to "Falcons drafting Penix there was okay, or even smart." It's because QB is just so off-the-charts different that the normal logic and rules just can't apply to the process of acquiring a possible star there.

This has major "person who had their face eaten by leopard after voting for the face eating leopard party tries to justify said vote" level of leaps of logic in it IMO. I think it's far more likely the Falcons are just genuinely rudderless or have convinced themselves they are smarter than they really are.

If you are getting an elite QB prospect in the top 3, I can see the logic (even though good luck holding that QB room together for 2 years). Or if it's a late first round pick where the chances of getting a very good starter at another position are somewhere less than 50/50, that also probably makes a bit of sense (the Jordan Love scenario). The 8th overall pick on a guy who really had a 2nd/3rd round grade on him for various reasons and will also be in his mid 20's before he sees the field and you actually see if he can play NFL football, yeah I'm just not seeing it. If they'd done it with Drake Maye at the #3 overall, I still would think it was stupid but I think you'd have more chance of convincing myself there was something in that logic.
bhlloy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 11:42 AM   #878
JPhillips
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
What are the odds that the 4th QB taken is going to be a star?

Will Levis
Matt Corral
Justin Fields
Jordan Love
Drew Locke
Josh Rosen
DeShone Kizer
Christian Hackenberg
Sean Mannion
Derek Carr
Matt Barkley
Brandon Weeden
Christian Ponder
Colt McCoy

Not a strong list since 2010.
__________________
To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers
JPhillips is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 12:08 PM   #879
QuikSand
lolzcat
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
QuikSand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 12:12 PM   #880
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
Continue to heckle the Raiders for targeting the standout TE after just acquiring a top TE last year, as an imperfect but current example - that's fine, TE isn't what determines the whole story.

Oh that's a good one! Let's make fun of the Raiders now!
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 12:13 PM   #881
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post

I thought that said Mila Kunis at first....and I STILL say HOT!
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 12:13 PM   #882
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips View Post
What are the odds that the 4th QB taken is going to be a star?

Will Levis
Matt Corral
Justin Fields
Jordan Love
Drew Locke
Josh Rosen
DeShone Kizer
Christian Hackenberg
Sean Mannion
Derek Carr
Matt Barkley
Brandon Weeden
Christian Ponder
Colt McCoy

Not a strong list since 2010.

During the draft they were talking about pick 99 being a hot commodity because of the previous 99s.
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 02:02 PM   #883
Thomkal
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips View Post
What are the odds that the 4th QB taken is going to be a star?

Will Levis
Matt Corral
Justin Fields
Jordan Love
Drew Locke
Josh Rosen
DeShone Kizer
Christian Hackenberg
Sean Mannion
Derek Carr
Matt Barkley
Brandon Weeden
Christian Ponder
Colt McCoy

Not a strong list since 2010.


OOF! That's a whole lot of mostly suck.
__________________
Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion!
10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time!
Thomkal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 03:13 PM   #884
Qwikshot
Pro Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: ...down the gravity well
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
After a lengthy back-and-forth with friends offline about the ATL Penix pick, I think I have come around to a new place on it.

The central question is really just about the QB position in the modern NFL. It's obviously important, pretty clearly the most important single position anywhere in major professional sports, and arguably dictates team success in an overwhelming fashion overall. Buying into this logic further and further toward the extreme side can send you into directions that start to seem irrational. (We've seen this debate in miniature in the last decade or two as merely good-enough starters sometimes get market-setting contracts, and more recently as we rethink what the QB market properly looks like as a % of the overall team salary cap...and maybe that needle hasn't even come to rest quite yet, looking at you Mr. Mahomes)

So, IFF you buy that "QB = nearly everything" then much of the logic that would sensibly apply to any another position just might go out the window. Continue to heckle the Raiders for targeting the standout TE after just acquiring a top TE last year, as an imperfect but current example - that's fine, TE isn't what determines the whole story. But, if QB is indeed basically what drives NFL success, then you basically take you shot any time you believe there's a solid chance of landing a top QB, period. Meaning that yes, even if you have made a financial commitment to a current veteran starter for the 2-3 years ahead, you still go ahead and draft a new guy if your scouting convinces you he may well be the real deal. If he is the real deal, even if it takes 2-3 years to see that and you will have missed out on getting value from him as a young/cheap starter, you could either walk into a high level still-young starter late in his rookie contract (a la Jordan Love) or you could perhaps parlay that promising young guy into a Browns-for-Watson overpayment from a QB-starved franchise elsewhere and reap back more draft capital than you expended initially.

I don't think I buy this overall, but... I think it's at least a coherent way to get yourself to "Falcons drafting Penix there was okay, or even smart." It's because QB is just so off-the-charts different that the normal logic and rules just can't apply to the process of acquiring a possible star there.

I'm not going to be surprised if at some point the NFL and the player's union equate QB as a special position that is almost separate from other players in regards to the cap. It is the most crucial position for success. The average to good quarterbacks keep you competitive; the best can get you a championship.

Truth is the draft is a crapshoot, all players are variables. Some may be better but there are so many extra factors to success and just because your draft is a success (what is that 2 starters maybe, 1 superstar, or several role players).

I think when critics are evaluating a draft on whether it is successful it's looking at output which is impossible until seasons later; rather they are evaluting on whether the draft strategy made sense.

The Eagles had a weak secondary; they drafted two highly regarded CBs. They also grabbed 7 other players and nabbed 3 draft picks for next year. The strategy makes sense therefore they are graded high. But they graded high last year and Jalen Carter wore down and Nolan Smith barely saw the field. So for output, not a great 2023 draft but the strategy made sense.

To me, the critics are confusing output (perceived or otherwise) grading rather than did the drafting strategy make sense (the Raiders drafting Bowers when they have a good TE; could've traded down and gotten more picks or the Falcons drafting Penix when they got Cousins).

This QB critque was prevalent when the Eagles drafted Hurts when they had Wentz. There was much criticism in Philly but present day, no complaints.
__________________
"General Woundwort's body was never found. It could be that he still lives his fierce life somewhere else, but from that day on, mother rabbits would tell their kittens that if they did not do as they were told, the General would get them. Such was Woundwort's monument, and perhaps it would not have displeased him." Watership Down, Richard Adams
Qwikshot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 03:32 PM   #885
GrantDawg
World Champion Mis-speller
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy View Post
I think it's far more likely the Falcons are just genuinely rudderless or have convinced themselves they are smarter than they really are.
They definitely think they are outsmarting everyone else. That trade up to the top of the second to get a player rated for the third round tells you that. We just got rid of a coach that had that "smarter than everyone else" attitude just to have a new regime that seem to have that attitude. I can't tell you how thrilled I am. This off-season went from hopefully optimistic to completely cringey really fast.
GrantDawg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 03:33 PM   #886
bhlloy
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Quote:
Originally Posted by Qwikshot View Post

This QB critque was prevalent when the Eagles drafted Hurts when they had Wentz. There was much criticism in Philly but present day, no complaints.

Drafting a QB with the 53rd overall pick as a potential replacement for somebody coming to the end of their rookie deal who already had a ton of question marks around his play and ability to stay healthy is really nothing like drafting a QB with the 8th overall pick as a potential replacement for a guy you gave $100m guaranteed a couple of months previously.

And that’s not even starting to consider the question marks over the player they took.

Last edited by bhlloy : 05-01-2024 at 03:33 PM.
bhlloy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 04:05 PM   #887
Passacaglia
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy View Post
Drafting a QB with the 53rd overall pick as a potential replacement for somebody coming to the end of their rookie deal who already had a ton of question marks around his play and ability to stay healthy is really nothing like drafting a QB with the 8th overall pick as a potential replacement for a guy you gave $100m guaranteed a couple of months previously.

And that’s not even starting to consider the question marks over the player they took.

Well, it kinda is...
Passacaglia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 06:01 PM   #888
bhlloy
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
It’s not because I’m talking about Wentz in the first but you’ve highlighted. If the Falcons feel the same in 2024 about Kirk Cousins that the Eagles felt about Carson Wentz in 2019, they probably should have not given him $100m guaranteed?
bhlloy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 06:42 PM   #889
Passacaglia
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
Ah, I see what you're saying.
Passacaglia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 06:51 PM   #890
Qwikshot
Pro Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: ...down the gravity well
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy View Post
It’s not because I’m talking about Wentz in the first but you’ve highlighted. If the Falcons feel the same in 2024 about Kirk Cousins that the Eagles felt about Carson Wentz in 2019, they probably should have not given him $100m guaranteed?

Sorry, I wasn't saying it was apples to apples. It was more like that was the last time I think there was surprise at a QB drafted.

I think Wentz got an extension in 2019. (4 years 128 million). Hurts was drafted 2020.
__________________
"General Woundwort's body was never found. It could be that he still lives his fierce life somewhere else, but from that day on, mother rabbits would tell their kittens that if they did not do as they were told, the General would get them. Such was Woundwort's monument, and perhaps it would not have displeased him." Watership Down, Richard Adams
Qwikshot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 10:28 PM   #891
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
The NFL is suing the University of Houston for using new powder blue jerseys.
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2024, 11:45 PM   #893
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Speaking of busting predictions...

Major Outlet Picks Amarius Mims as One of Most Likely 2024 AFC Draft Picks to Bust
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2024, 09:17 PM   #894
flere-imsaho
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand View Post
After a lengthy back-and-forth with friends offline about the ATL Penix pick, I think I have come around to a new place on it.

I came here tonight to post something similar after marinating on the question for a few days.

But first of all, there are definitely some things about this situation that the Falcons mishandled. Mina Kimes' point on draft night about the value of rookie contracts remains a good one especially if they plan to have him sit as long as they said they might (which I don't actually believe, see below).

Secondly, the way they handled it with Cousins was not great, arguably even worse than what the Packers did with both Favre and Rodgers. The whole "we're fine letting him sit for 3-4 years" definitely smacks of trying to walk something back after realizing they had pissed off Cousins.

If Cousins sucks or gets injured (something they clearly anticipated given that all the guaranteed money is in the first two years of his deal) then they have a Plan B that, in theory at least, can step in and not have them scraping the bottom of the barrel again (questioning whether they can adequately judge QB talent is a whole separate discussion). If Cousins declines after two years, same as above but they're still getting value from the contract. And if Cousins is good for four years, well then maybe they can flip Penix for some picks or at least he didn't cost them that much money or honestly no one will care by that point (the last point is very, very important to the GM's job security).

Now, where they failed was in not finding a better way to message it with Cousins. I don't know Cousins, so I don't know how he'd take being told that Penix is Cousins insurance. But there has to be a better way to message the choice than the way that they did it. Keeping your QB happy is literally part of their job.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhlloy View Post
If you are getting an elite QB prospect in the top 3, I can see the logic (even though good luck holding that QB room together for 2 years). Or if it's a late first round pick where the chances of getting a very good starter at another position are somewhere less than 50/50, that also probably makes a bit of sense (the Jordan Love scenario). The 8th overall pick on a guy who really had a 2nd/3rd round grade on him for various reasons and will also be in his mid 20's before he sees the field and you actually see if he can play NFL football, yeah I'm just not seeing it. If they'd done it with Drake Maye at the #3 overall, I still would think it was stupid but I think you'd have more chance of convincing myself there was something in that logic.

To echo some of the stuff that QS wrote, the fact of the matter is that, as we have discussed upthread and in previous threads, it is a) very difficult to obtain a good-to-elite QB and b) having a good-to-elite QB has become pretty much a requirement to getting to the postseason and potentially doing well in the postseason.

The number of QBs who can lift an average team or below-average offensive unit (with a competent defensive unit) into the playoffs is probably in the single digits. The number of QBs who can do the same when paired with a stellar OC or HC operating as an OC (e.g. McVay or McDaniel) is also in the single digits.

When I did my tiering exercise, you basically get through, generously, 16 QBs before you get to the "fuck it, start tanking" tier.

So I think that if you're a team that's drafting and has a need for a QB either now or potentially in the next few years (see the Favre & Rodgers situations), and you come across a candidate that you think has the chance to be competent-to-good (with caveats of course around teams' ability to judge talent) you should just take him, regardless of draft position. The position is simply that important.

Anyway, I'm probably super wrong, but I've spent far too much time thinking about this on my commute and so you all get to be the beneficiaries of that lol.
flere-imsaho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2024, 10:22 PM   #895
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Was just reading about the Rasheed Rice suspension. Was he drinking or high? Cause that's the only reason I can see why he will be suspended.
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2024, 10:48 PM   #896
RainMaker
Hall Of Famer
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
Was just reading about the Rasheed Rice suspension. Was he drinking or high? Cause that's the only reason I can see why he will be suspended.

He does have a lot of charges from the crash. Looks like 8 in total and some are serious. Appears he was going close to 120 and caused a big wreck that hurt a lot of people. Then he fled the scene.

Maybe after the Ruggs incident, the NFL is tired of it and wants to send a message.
RainMaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2024, 12:47 AM   #897
CrimsonFox
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker View Post
He does have a lot of charges from the crash. Looks like 8 in total and some are serious. Appears he was going close to 120 and caused a big wreck that hurt a lot of people. Then he fled the scene.

Maybe after the Ruggs incident, the NFL is tired of it and wants to send a message.

okay F him then.

I DID see that it was a pile up partially caused by him and that a lot of people were hurt but I didn't see the other details.

And oh wow that Ruggs case is sad
Ex-Raiders WR Henry Ruggs III sentenced 3 to 10 years for fatal DUI - ESPN
CrimsonFox is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2024, 10:14 AM   #898
flere-imsaho
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker View Post
Appears he was going close to 120 and caused a big wreck that hurt a lot of people. Then he fled the scene.

Check, check, check - someone who does all three, here, needs to be doing some serious time, even without a discussion of being on substances.
flere-imsaho is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2024, 11:45 AM   #899
molson
General Manager
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
It's always been annoying to me that leaving the scene of an accident is a lesser crime than DUI, so it makes complete logical sense to flee the scene if you're drunk or high, even if you know you're probably going to be caught eventually.
molson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2024, 12:48 PM   #900
GrantDawg
World Champion Mis-speller
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
Quote:
Originally Posted by molson View Post
It's always been annoying to me that leaving the scene of an accident is a lesser crime than DUI, so it makes complete logical sense to flee the scene if you're drunk or high, even if you know you're probably going to be caught eventually.
This. "Leaving a scene of an accident with injuries" should carry the same consequences as a third DUI.
GrantDawg is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:21 PM.



Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.