NFL 2022 Offseason, Draft, Free Agency

[stevew]

The Pickett thing has to be Marino related. Like they weren't about to pass on another successful Pitt QB that lands in their lap. I'd have been down for Willis as a potential long term upside pick. Pickett is already 24 by the time the season starts.

[albionmoonlight]

Seems like NFL teams have gotten smarter.

10 years ago I think we would have seen panic trades up to grab these mediocre QBs.

[Ksyrup]

Pickett seems like the pick you make when you want to limit criticism if it doesn't work out. He's from Pitt, we know him better, etc. It's a perfect fit that just didn't work out.

Amazing that no RB or TE were taken in the 1st round.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Amazing that no RB or TE were taken in the 1st round.

If a playoff caliber team takes Kenneth Walker III sometime soon, he sure seems like a solid bet to rush for about 1200 yards and be the NFL RoY.

[Swaggs]

I’m trying to come around on Pickett. Seeing comps of Cousins and Carr isn’t the worst thing in the world and is probably a win at pick 20 and he is seemingly an upgrade at the position, which is what you want out of draft picks. It’s just hard to get real excited and dream about Super Bowls when the realistic, reasonable outcome is that your franchise QB (for the next 3-5 years, at least) is only going to be a Carr or Cousins type player.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Pickett seems like the pick you make when you want to limit criticism if it doesn't work out. He's from Pitt, we know him better, etc. It's a perfect fit that just didn't work out.

Good point. If it fails, fans will blame the player, not the team.

[JPhillips]

Baltimore did their thing of grabbing high ceiling guys that dropped, but they need more offensive weapons if they are going to compete in the AFC.

I think Pitt is largely fucked without Ben in the AFC and the small chance that Pickett is a franchise QB is probably worth the gamble. Who else are they going to get to compete with all of the QB talent in the conference?

I'm a big believer in maximizing the time under the QB rookie deal, so I'm not thrilled with the Bengals picking a safety to replace one of Bates/Bell next year. This might be the last year under Burrow's rookie deal and I would have preferred an impact player for this year. Although, Hill looks like a bargain pick with great production and RAS.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Baltimore did their thing of grabbing high ceiling guys that dropped, but they need more offensive weapons if they are going to compete in the AFC.

I think Pitt is largely fucked without Ben in the AFC and the small chance that Pickett is a franchise QB is probably worth the gamble. Who else are they going to get to compete with all of the QB talent in the conference?

I'm a big believer in maximizing the time under the QB rookie deal, so I'm not thrilled with the Bengals picking a safety to replace one of Bates/Bell next year. This might be the last year under Burrow's rookie deal and I would have preferred an impact player for this year. Although, Hill looks like a bargain pick with great production and RAS.

I don't know feel like the Steelers are fucked without Ben. You can make the case that they are, but he went from being a top 10 QB to a bottom 1/3rd QB over the past two years and they still went 21-11-1 during that time. They played the first place schedule last year and still made the playoffs. Their biggest losses are Ben (who was, good feelings aside, somewhere in the bottom 10 starting QBs last season and the season before), JuJu (who only played in 5 games last year and they lost 3 of them), and Joe Haden (who I think will be missed, but they chose to keep their other two top CBs, instead). I see them as a fringe playoff team this year if they get average QB play and their front 7 stays healthy (Watt completely missed two games and missed parts of several others and Stephon Tuitt did not play all season, reportedly because his brother passed away in an automobile accident). If Tuitt comes back healthy, their run defense should be a little better and it was absolutely awful last year. Their offensive line should also be a little better with some experience from younger guys and a few good-looking (on paper, at least) free agent signings.

I think the AFC North is generally pretty closely lumped together right now. I feel like the Ravens are coming to a fork in the road with Jackson, as he is going to get really expensive after this year and is giving out a lot of signs that he wants paid, first and foremost. I think he sky is the limit for Burrow and the Bengals the next few years, if he can stay healthy, but I'd expect to see them fall back a little this year with them playing the first place schedule and having more of a target on their backs. The Browns seemed poised to break out last year and then stumbled with the higher expectations. It would not surprise me if any team in the AFC North won 6 games or 11/12 games next season.

[tzach]

Cole Strange -- Belichick trying to pull a MalcPow

[albionmoonlight]

Olave's dad is fresh off getting a precious artifact stolen back from him by Indiana Jones pic.twitter.com/PVYvN8qbBe

— Kenjac (@JackKennedy) April 29, 2022

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

It would not surprise me if any team in the AFC North won 6 games or 11/12 games next season.

...you would not be surprised by the Bengals or Ravens going 6-11 this year? Seriously? Maybe some allohmon-colored glasses in effect?

[stevew]

I just remembered that Picketts only got a 17 on the Wonderlic and it just made me want to puke again.

(all the yinzers will call him Picketts, it's just the way)

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by stevew

I just remembered that Picketts only got a 17 on the Wonderlic and it just made me want to puke again.

(all the yinzers will call him Picketts, it's just the way)

Dan Marino only got a 16!

[albionmoonlight]

Maybe Pitt's not that good of a college?

[albionmoonlight]

dola: I think that Pittsburgh is handing the post-Ben era just right. Sign Trubisky to 2 years with a $5,000,000 signing bonus. And then draft Pickett at 20 instead of panic trading up for him.

Those are both low cost lottery tickets. If neither works out, then you are out the 20th pick. That's not nothing, but it also isn't like blowing a top-five pick or giving up future assets or committing long-term money to anyone.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I don't know feel like the Steelers are fucked without Ben. You can make the case that they are, but he went from being a top 10 QB to a bottom 1/3rd QB over the past two years and they still went 21-11-1 during that time. They played the first place schedule last year and still made the playoffs. Their biggest losses are Ben (who was, good feelings aside, somewhere in the bottom 10 starting QBs last season and the season before), JuJu (who only played in 5 games last year and they lost 3 of them), and Joe Haden (who I think will be missed, but they chose to keep their other two top CBs, instead). I see them as a fringe playoff team this year if they get average QB play and their front 7 stays healthy (Watt completely missed two games and missed parts of several others and Stephon Tuitt did not play all season, reportedly because his brother passed away in an automobile accident). If Tuitt comes back healthy, their run defense should be a little better and it was absolutely awful last year. Their offensive line should also be a little better with some experience from younger guys and a few good-looking (on paper, at least) free agent signings.

I think the AFC North is generally pretty closely lumped together right now. I feel like the Ravens are coming to a fork in the road with Jackson, as he is going to get really expensive after this year and is giving out a lot of signs that he wants paid, first and foremost. I think he sky is the limit for Burrow and the Bengals the next few years, if he can stay healthy, but I'd expect to see them fall back a little this year with them playing the first place schedule and having more of a target on their backs. The Browns seemed poised to break out last year and then stumbled with the higher expectations. It would not surprise me if any team in the AFC North won 6 games or 11/12 games next season.

I think the AFC is significantly better this year than last and any team that can't score 30 is going to be in trouble. There are just too many good QBs and WRs to think that a team can win with defense and average QB play.

It doesn't always work out this way, but I think it's generally safe in this era to think the team with the best QB will win. How many times will the best QB be in black and gold?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...you would not be surprised by the Bengals or Ravens going 6-11 this year? Seriously? Maybe some allohmon-colored glasses in effect?

No. I think they both have injury prone quarterbacks and it doesn't have much to do with how I personally feel about the Steelers.

Lamar Jackson having the top 3 and 4 of the top 7 seasons of rushing attempts by a QB leads me to believe that there is a non-zero chance that he eventually gets injured or worn down (a la most NFL running backs that carry the ball too much).

The Bengals would be more of a surprise to sink to 6 and have made some good moves, but Burrow took 70 sacks last season between the regular season and playoffs and is playing on a reconstructed knee. He apparently injured his MCL in the Super Bowl and there was at least some talk that he would need to rehab it or have surgery (which ended up not being the case). I'd rather have him than any other QB in the division and probably would rather have him than anyone other than Mahomes and maybe Allen (just because of Burrow's knee), but there is some risk there.

It looks like the Bengals, Browns, and Ravens all have an over/under of 9.5 and the Steelers have one of 7.5, so the 6 to 11/12 win range seems about right to me, with a lot of potential for variability at the QB position for all the teams.

How do you see it?

[stevew]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Dan Marino only got a 16!

That’s cause he had a coke problem

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think the AFC is significantly better this year than last and any team that can't score 30 is going to be in trouble. There are just too many good QBs and WRs to think that a team can win with defense and average QB play.

It doesn't always work out this way, but I think it's generally safe in this era to think the team with the best QB will win. How many times will the best QB be in black and gold?

I entirely agree with what you are saying and I'm not trying to make it sound like I think the Steelers will win the division (I'd probably pick them last today, depending on what Watson's situation is), but at the same time, Ben ranked like 26th last year and they won 9 games with him and with their interior defensive line decimated (their starting tackles, Aluala and Tuitt, combined for two games - both are expected back healthy, although they have been oddly quiet about Tuitt's absence all of last year and this, presumably out of respect of his loss), which made their run defense last in overall yards and YPC and rushing 1st downs allowed. I don't think it would be a surprise if either of those two things improved this year, if even marginally. The Steelers have have had below average QB play the past three years and have won 29 games. I don't think it would take a whole lot for them to have a better team/metrics this year, but as you said, the rest of the AFC may be better to the degree that the Steelers record and placement will be worse.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola: I think that Pittsburgh is handing the post-Ben era just right. Sign Trubisky to 2 years with a $5,000,000 signing bonus. And then draft Pickett at 20 instead of panic trading up for him.

Those are both low cost lottery tickets. If neither works out, then you are out the 20th pick. That's not nothing, but it also isn't like blowing a top-five pick or giving up future assets or committing long-term money to anyone.

These two, along with Mason Rudolph, all fit the lottery ticket concept for me. As did Haskins. Sort of feels like when I don't have a QB in FOF and just grab a bunch of average guys and hope one of them breaks out once they have the opportunity. Other than mortgaging the next few years of picks for Watson or Russell Wilson, it isn't like they could have traded up this year and done better, so I guess if they had Pickett scouted in the neighborhood of BPA, it makes sense. Obviously, I am very happy they didn't trade up to get him or Willis (which there was clamoring among the fanbase to do), with what we know now.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

It looks like the Bengals, Browns, and Ravens all have an over/under of 9.5 and the Steelers have one of 7.5, so the 6 to 11/12 win range seems about right to me, with a lot of potential for variability at the QB position for all the teams.

How do you see it?

If your catch-all is that key players might get hurt and therefore any team is just a bad break or three away from a 6-11 season... okay fine, but that's not really the same thing as singling out these teams.

I'd gladly work out a friendly way to book your bet for you. I will take the parlay of CIN>6 + BAL>6 and will pay a reasonably adjusted price for the wager. If those outcomes don't sound like surprises to you, would you make that play as a 2:1 bet? I put up $200 on that parlay to win $100 from you if both teams hit the over?

[Swaggs]

Megadola -

As for the rest of the Steelers' draft, I had them passing on a QB this year (assuming they would have a higher pick and a better class to choose from this year) and wanted a WR, an interior DL, and a T (that could be a swing, third tackle this year with hope to develop into a starter). The mock on the Athletic had them getting OT Bernhard Raimann in the 2nd and DT Phidarian Mathis in the 3rd, which would make me happy, but they are really thin at receiver after losing JuJu and James Washington (who I think could break out with the Cowboys this year if given a decent shot) and just having Johnson and Claypool left. I see both of them as marginal starters to begin with, so hopefully they can shake someone loose from another team at some point.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

If your catch-all is that key players might get hurt and therefore any team is just a bad break or three away from a 6-11 season... okay fine, but that's not really the same thing as singling out these teams.

I'd gladly work out a friendly way to book your bet for you. I will take the parlay of CIN>6 + BAL>6 and will pay a reasonably adjusted price for the wager. If those outcomes don't sound like surprises to you, would you make that play as a 2:1 bet? I put up $200 on that parlay to win $100 from you if both teams hit the over?

Are you even being serious? While I appreciate you challenging me, I'm here to talk football and not to gamble. If you are looking for gambling sites, there are plenty of smarter folks around here than me that can point you in the right direction.

I tried to give you the benefit of the doubt by giving thoughtful responses to my opinions and share some insight on what I was looking at, but you've come through and just swatted that away, so thanks. I'm sorry that I wasted your time and, more so, my own. Carry on.

[albionmoonlight]

I like what Philadelphia has done.

Much like Miami with Tua, you are a team with a young QB, and you are not sure whether he's a franchise guy, and you are about to have decide whether to commit franchise guy level money to him.

So you just surround him with weapons; get rid of all his excuses. Then you know. If he performs like a superstar, then you happily pay him like one. If he does not take the leap and really looks to have a ceiling, then you have really good information before you decide whether to commit big term money to him.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Maybe Pitt's not that good of a college?

wonderlic correlates more with college nobel-prize winner numbers than to any football stat

[QuikSand]

+1 on Philly, assuming they know what they're doing cap-wise, I felt like last night was a major move to max out their situation...

And again, they emerge as a candidate to become a franchise that can pursue "win with an affordable but good enough quarterback" as its strategy in the (fairly likely) case that Hurts doesn't look like the "pay him since he's that good" guy.

[JPhillips]

I like what Philly did yesterday, but it also makes me dislike the previous trade more. They aren't going to be able to move up to one or two next year to get Stroud or Young, so they should have added another weapon this year to maximize what they can achieve on the QB's rookie deal.

In the NFC, they might be the third or fourth favorite to get to the SB.

[stevew]

Raiders declining all 3 of their 2019 picks 5th year. Jacobs/Ferrell/some safety.

[Bobble]

How's come no one's talking about how the Lions slayed this draft so far? Yawl jealous? ;-)

[thesloppy]

The Lions won every draft of the Matt Millen era too.

[thesloppy]

...but as a Lions fan I really can't complain. For most of the pre-draft process it seemed like Hutchinson was the entirely obvious match, but Jax was going to ruin the story, so it's hard for that not to feel like a huge win. Likewise I don't think anybody was expecting to end up with a talent like Williams with their second first-round pick, even though they had to give up some of their later capital to get him.

[thesloppy]

Criss Angel mindfreaks the draft crowd into complete silence. Goodell half-heartedly blabbers something about "now that's how you start a draft in Vegas!" and the crowd boos violently. Perfection.

[thesloppy]

If Malik Willis slides to the Lions even after their trade, would seemingly put a cap on a dream draft.

[sabotai]

Ed Marinaro was the best part of the draft. That was hilarious.

[Atocep]

I mocked Brisker to the Bears when I did my PFF mock the other day. I like that pick and I think he pairs really well with Eddie Jackson.

[Coffee Warlord]

Bears secondary on paper is now actually pretty damn good.

[rjolley]

I like the Bears pick, but thought it was a bit early. I wonder if there were chances to trade back a few picks to get some more draft capital. Probably tried to and that's why the clock ran down before the pick was in.

[Atocep]

Either the Patriots know something that no one else knows in this draft or they're just reaching for players.

[GrantDawg]

50 picks in, and only 1 QB taken. I really expected more teams to gamble on guys in desperation.

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[Swaggs]

I saw a tweet saying that the Steelers actually tried to trade with the Texans to move up to #15, but the Texans rebuffed because they thought the group of guys they liked wouldn't be available at 20. Sure seems like Steelers could have traded back.

I'd like to see the Steelers grab the DT out of UConn here in the 2nd.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by rjolley

I like the Bears pick, but thought it was a bit early. I wonder if there were chances to trade back a few picks to get some more draft capital. Probably tried to and that's why the clock ran down before the pick was in.

Poles has been pretty much openly saying he wanted to trade down. Just no takers, I guess.

[GrantDawg]

You will be happy with George Pickens.

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[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You will be happy with George Pickens.

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Yeah. I think he looks like a good fit. I'm pretty happy with that one. Plus, the last Steelers WR that I can recall out of Georgia is probably my favorite player of all-time.

[QuikSand]

Willis and the other QBs just falling, falling... Atlanta at 58? TB at 60? NYG at 67? Titans at 69? (nice) Seattle at 72? WTAF

[Coffee Warlord]

Nakobe Dean has gotta be asking for some whiskey in the green room at this point.

[Coffee Warlord]

And ... as much as I like the massive upgrade to the Bears secondary, the second big run on WR's right after their pick is disconcerting.

[GrantDawg]

Hines Ward was a baller. He carried my fantasy team for years by his consistency.

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[rjolley]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Nakobe Dean has gotta be asking for some whiskey in the green room at this point.

I would've liked to see Dean go to the Bears instead of Brisker if they were going defense. Him with Smith would be a good duo.

Will the Bears just go best WR available at 71, or just best overall?

[GrantDawg]

Dean size and injury history is scaring teams off. He has a great heart, but his size might endvup being a problem.

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[Thomkal]

Wow Cards finally get to pick and take a TE?