WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387)

[The Jackal]

It's kinda scary how many dukes are left, honestly

[Chief Rum]

Day Three Vote Tally (as of Post #851)

EagleFan (3)-- The Jackal (815), fontisian (821), Grover (844)
fontisian (3)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807)

Yet to Vote: timmae, Raven, EagleFan, britrock88, Narcizo, MrBug708

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Is my math off? I didn't deduct 1 for JAG/Zinto because they didn't use their kill, but out of the 5 living hunters there should be up to 3 kills left because EF used his and the blank is still out there.

The math is probably fine, I just noticed he wasn't on the list.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The math is probably fine, I just noticed he wasn't on the list.

yeah in that respect Zinto isn't on the list either, I put vaimes down there as -1 because he actually used his kill but he isn't alive either.. so it's moot.

[The Jackal]

This seems like it could be an interesting vote.. which is better than yesterday

[Grover]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

And it also prevents any other hunters from taking a shot today.

Excellent addition. That had slipped my mind. But EF's play completely blocks font from taking a shot at someone until tomorrow at the earliest.

[EagleFan]

We probably want a third option. Ideas?

[Autumn]

Which, since I was her target, I know to be a pro-village move. I think it's possible EF's story is the truth, he hasn't been following along as closely and maybe didn't buy the blocked kill story, which many of us didn't at first. Unfortunately, killing someone it seems the wolves are also trying to kill doesn't give you a great look.

[timmae]

Vaimes took a shot to clear possible villagers. EF took a shot on a known duke which cost us a villager.

vote Eaglefan

[EagleFan]

Known duke does not equal known villager.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We probably want a third option. Ideas?

My suspect list right now goes, outside of Font and EF, from most suspicious to least:

Timmae
Raven
cheekimonk
Grover

[Grover]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We probably want a third option. Ideas?

Self preservation much?

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Raven

So Martin is def not the Cultist, since he duked, and Cultist does not have that ability.

Since the bg is a village role - wolves would not target wolf Martin in hopes that bg would be guarding him.

This means Martin is confirmed village, and isn't lying about being protected last night. Also means Cultist was not converted last night.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Or, you know, he could just be making up the story.

He was clearly not the Cultist because he Duked.
If he was a wolf, he would not have been targeted by wolves, so bg would not have saved him.

If he lied, he is a wolf. A scan would have revealed it, unless he was Cunning. So the only reason to lie would be if he was Cunning.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We probably want a third option. Ideas?

Maybe you're a disengaged/busy villager, it happens to the best of us, but you know that we want YOU to give us ideas, so that people can look at your reasoning, etc.

[EagleFan]

I gave reasoning and was shouted down. Right about now I've got nothing. I trust only Autumn so far.

Don't turn your back on font.

[Narcizo]

I hate this game. What a waste of a lot of my day.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I hate this game. What a waste of a lot of my day.

Life's too short to worry about it

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Don't turn your back on font.

Not planning on it

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I hate this game. What a waste of a lot of my day.

Shut up, you love it.

[MrBug708]

vote EF

Pretty much guessed MartinD was a villager but it was my first time playing with him and didn't think he was bold enough to be a wolf.

[cheekimonk]

I think I'm staying where I am. I could go with EF, but haven't been convinced to come off font, either. The duke/hunter analysis above makes me think there's going to be a duke today in any case.

[Narcizo]

Hats off to the bodyguard. Dunno how you called that. I really don't want to vote or even think about this. For what its worth (very little) I think I believe Eagle. I don't see why a wolf-Eagle takes that shot. Why draw attention to himself? I can see village-Wolf doing it. Then again I couldn't see village-Martin duking to Vaimes. So what do I know? Also if the wolves think Martin was the bodyguard why didn't they just night kill him again? Absolutely no reason for them to expose themselves just to take him out.

Reasons why wolves tried to kill Martin
a) Prove his innocence so wolf-font doesn't have to be killed
b) Assuming he was going to duke to a wolf, thus clearing himself. Probably wolf-Autumn.
c) weird stuff that apparently the bodyguard has insight into but I don't.

[Chief Rum]

Day Three Vote Tally (as of Post #871)

EagleFan (5)-- The Jackal (815), fontisian (821), Grover (844), timmae (859), MrBug708 (870)
fontisian (3)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807)

Yet to Vote: Raven, EagleFan, britrock88, Narcizo

[The Jackal]

I'm not totally thrilled at the group of people voting for EF with me at the moment..

Any thoughts, brit/raven?

[Autumn]

The most obvious answer just hit me in the face. Wolves kill Martin because they figure he's the least likely to be protected by the bodyguard. We're having to stretch ourselves so hard to figure out why he would be killed ... maybe that's why he was killed.

[The Jackal]

Interesting take, Autumn

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Reasons why wolves tried to kill Martin
a) Prove his innocence so wolf-font doesn't have to be killed
b) Assuming he was going to duke to a wolf, thus clearing himself. Probably wolf-Autumn.
c) weird stuff that apparently the bodyguard has insight into but I don't.

I would add

D) trying to hit the cultist, suggesting a wolf-font.
E) Trying to avoid the bodyguard.
F) Thinking he was seer, suggesting a villager-font.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Hats off to the bodyguard. Dunno how you called that. I really don't want to vote or even think about this. For what its worth (very little) I think I believe Eagle. I don't see why a wolf-Eagle takes that shot. Why draw attention to himself? I can see village-Wolf doing it. Then again I couldn't see village-Martin duking to Vaimes. So what do I know? Also if the wolves think Martin was the bodyguard why didn't they just night kill him again? Absolutely no reason for them to expose themselves just to take him out.

Reasons why wolves tried to kill Martin
a) Prove his innocence so wolf-font doesn't have to be killed
b) Assuming he was going to duke to a wolf, thus clearing himself. Probably wolf-Autumn.
c) weird stuff that apparently the bodyguard has insight into but I don't.

I could go along with your area sons but I want to hear more explanation from EF. Maybe he'd just trying to kill off Dukes?

[Grover]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

I could go along with your area sons but I want to hear more explanation from EF. Maybe he'd just trying to kill off Dukes?

You want to hear more from EF on this, but why are you giving him a potential explanation in the process?

[MrBug708]

Seems very antivillager then

[Raven]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm not totally thrilled at the group of people voting for EF with me at the moment..

Any thoughts, brit/raven?

I'm still processing all this. Looking for some motive.
I realize I need to move on this quickly, because time is ticking.

I don't know why EF would target Martin, when he was arguing with font directly. He could have easily realized that Martin was likely not a wolf based on the previous NK actions. I have pretty much spelled out why Martin was most likely not a wolf.

Only thing I can come up with is that EF targeted a known Duke so he wouldn't kill himself if targeting a hunter. (Which others are also saying). But that of course puts EF in the spotlight. IF EF was a wolf, only reason he would be OK with spotlighting himself is if he was Brutal? Which means wolves would (potentially) get 3 kills today (Martin, EF's Brutal kill at lynch, and a NK).

[Chief Rum]

Third day of this, so you all should be used to this now... I am headed to lunch! Be back in an hour.

[Raven]

Thinking about it some more, EF being Brutal doesn't make sense to me.
Assume we started with 3 wolves.

That means 3 wolves and 9 villagers remain.
If EF was brutal, it seems too early to spotlight himself.
Otherwise he gets possibly lynched and takes out someone with him, then wolves NK tonight. (All this assuming no Dukes). That then leaves 2 wolves and 7 villagers.

Just seems too early for that play to be used by the Brutal.

[EagleFan]

I pretty much stated my reasons. Thought I was going to look really good with that move but instead I put as all further behind the eightball. I put the request in last night and thought I would see good news this morning.

It was a screw up, big time.

I will try to get it on from my laptop if I can.

[Narcizo]

So we're currently 8:3:1 I guess. If we miss then we're probably 6:3:1 unless we have MVB evah. If the wolves have all their powers left we're boned. That alone would explain Eagle taking the kill. Maybe they're playing endgame already. As the village is whittled away there's increasingly more chance of the wolves getting items.

I can't see a third candidate emerging. Dunno who it would be anyway. If we lynch village then the seer and bodyguard probably should reveal tomorrow, if they're still alive. And the vote should be left in the hands of any cleared that emerge. If the seer is a hunter he might want to make his best shot as early as possible.

Of the two on the table I'll

vote fontisian

[britrock88]

Sorry to be totally absent--been swamped at work.

Nothing leaps to mind to explain EF's shot at Martin other than the explanation he gave us--which is that he was just reading Martin as bad and wanted to take his chance. The time lag between order and execution may mean that information we're taking for granted was not something EF had to rely upon in deciding to use his shot. Not that I mean any of this to be exonerating.

At this point, our track record with hunters' shots makes me wary of our continued use of them. Font is, for her part, on the warpath to shoot Autumn. I'm not terribly fond of the idea.

vote Fontisian

[Shoveler]

that puts us at 5/5.. with two votes remaining

[Raven]

EF and I are the two remaining votes then...

[Raven]

And since EF will def vote font and if I vote EF then I create a tie. So my only vote (unless someone switches), will be to vote font.

[Raven]

I am assuming the Cultist knows who the wolves are?

If I vote Font, and font ends up Wolf...
Grover, timmae, The Jackal - are the wolves and cultist.
MrBug is the only other possibility, but he voted font on day1.

If EF is a wolf.
The wolf/cultist possibilities are Shoveler, cheeki, Autum, britrock, Narcizo.

Since EF will be voting font, my hands are tied...
vote fontisian

[Autumn]

Don't discount the possibility of wolves voting wolves, Raven, either when it doesn't matter or when it's a runaway. It's a common strategy to earn trust later. That's actually why I suspected JAG early on day one because I thought he might have been putting a vote on a possible wolf cheekimonk only to take it off later.

[The Jackal]

Especially when the odds of a duke happening are pretty high no matter what .. that's why I was saying on D1 that vote analysis won't be as useful this game.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Don't discount the possibility of wolves voting wolves, Raven, either when it doesn't matter or when it's a runaway. It's a common strategy to earn trust later. That's actually why I suspected JAG early on day one because I thought he might have been putting a vote on a possible wolf cheekimonk only to take it off later.

I'm not including runaways, so don't think that applies here.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Raven

I'm not including runaways, so don't think that applies here.

Yeah sorry, I just meant generally.

[Chief Rum]

I'm back. Doing a vote tally.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Especially when the odds of a duke happening are pretty high no matter what .. that's why I was saying on D1 that vote analysis won't be as useful this game.

Circled back around. Yep, certainly can't rule this out.

[Autumn]

No EF vote. That bodes well that he is probably just a villager.

[The Jackal]

I mean, if we're in a tie, I generally can't in good conscience support that

[The Jackal]

Seems like it's 6-5 for font

[Chief Rum]

Day Three Vote Tally (as of Post #895)


fontisian (6)-- cheekimonk (799), Autumn (806), Shoveler (807), Narcizo (885), britrock88 (886), Raven (890)
EagleFan (5)-- The Jackal (815), fontisian (821), Grover (844), timmae (859), MrBug708 (870)


Yet to Vote: EagleFan