Legends of Sri Lanka

[Christy]

Intodia and Kayeeda will do nicely for me! Was beaten to the punch on Vermireddy though (could only get two anyway but would have left Intodia).

[thehitcat]

Originally Posted by Christy

Intodia and Kayeeda will do nicely for me! Was beaten to the punch on Vermireddy though (could only get two anyway but would have left Intodia).

Very Cool I'll be very interested to see how our young'uns all develop.

[Brian Swartz]

Now I spose I got to add them to the list of players to update too … :P.


I did a whole big rankings update and then accidentally deleted it. Don't feel like writing it again. Short version: 'Little John' Hart won Miami, with epic matches over Pargeter in semis and Karl Kaspar in the final. He's not waiting on anything, and is up to #8. Sbai is up to #3, and Chiba beat Dudwadkar soundly in Miami, is now 5th and looking to push higher. Last two years he's stumbled at RG early after winning a clay Masters, so that'll be key as the will KK's ability to repeat there. Still lots of the young players pushing upwards; Prachuab is 13th, Andrejova 14th, Henrikkson(31st) and 21-year-old Harald Balzer(29th, SWE) on the move as well further down. Also made a bad joke about not knowing how many of them have the Hart to succeed.

Amrik Kasaravalli is past the Amateur stage at 924th, preparing for his push into futures. He's actually a little ahead of Chiba's pace, which is surprising. My new players are about to take their first events when the week flips over. Ritwik Dudwadkar has new and unproven management, but he helped us beat Mexico 4-1 to complete a perfect trip through our group in the WTC. We'll see how things sit when we get to the knockout rounds a few months down the road.

The big deal now is seeing who steps forward in the clay season. If Karl Kaspar is going to crack, this will probably be the time.

[Brian Swartz]

Clay Masters

The year started living up to the prediction of chaos some here. Sushant Chiba won Monte Carlo in a tight match over Karl Kaspar, who didn't even play here last year. Sbai was a semifinalist, losing narrowly to Kaspar. Chiba then stumbled early in Madrid for the second year in a row, and ultimately John Hart won his first Masters as a 7-seed, with Kaspar again the runner-up. Another close SF loss for Hamal Sbai, to Hart ... and Chalerm Prachuab, seeded 11th, made a surprise run. In Rome, His Karlness broke through to beat Hart in the semis and Chiba in the final, with former RG champ (10)Gilberto Chinaglia the oddball there.

So heading into RG, it looked like Kaspar was the favorite as the most consistent, but then there was Chiba and Hart who'd each beaten him. The steady but unspectacular and underachieving Sbai couldn't be counted out either.

[Brian Swartz]

2061 Roland Garros

Young Frenchman (26)Willy Bochette was a surprise as the only seed to exit in the first round, in four sets to Sorel. I would have figured home court advantage to guarantee him at least a couple of wins here. Three more fell in the second round, including Edleman and Stachovsky, both of whom will be quite disappointed in such an early exit. The next couple of rounds held a surprise here and there but nothing major. (12)Brian Meikeljohn and (8)Chalerm Prachuab contested the most epic match of the tournament to date in the fourth round, with Meikeljohn eventually prevailing 8-6 in the 5th.

One of the most significant factors was who was not here, as Mateo Kaspar had abandoned singles play completely months ago in pursuit of his doubles goals. (6)Stuart Pargeter lost in the first week, largely due to his doubles work as Kaspar's partner, but still most of the top players made it through to the quarterfinals.

The first match was a stunning one, with Karl Kaspar's bit for a 3-peat here prematurely derailed by American Hugo Cordova, an 11-seed considered past his prime. 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 was the final, and it was a match that Karl should have won. He was the more consistent player but managed not to find many break chances despite that, and it was close in terms of quality. Just a really stunning result. Cordova was a semifinalist here two years ago but aside form that has done nothing at RG. Hamal Sbai lost as well, a four-set match to Hart that was not as much of a shock. For the second straight round, Meikeljohn won 8-6 in the 5th as Ritwik Dudwadkar waved goodbye, and Seamus Hughes was the only player not to win a set, against Chiba.

None of the top four players in the world rankings made the semifinals. This was truly to be a bizarre end to the tournament. Cordova worked his magic again, winning another match in which he was slightly outplayed over John Hart, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3. In the end, Hugo was more steady here over the majority of play, but had that one terrible set in the 4th. A surprisingly easy win over Meikeljohn for Sushant Chiba set up an unexpected finale. This time his US foe had no surprises up his sleeve, and a trio of 6-3 sets later it was over. Chiba claims his first Slam title, and with it moves up to #3(effectively #2 with Mateo gone) in the world! It's rare to see somebody win this event without losing a set. He had a couple of tiebreakers earlier on(Chinaglia and Hughes) but neither of them were close. So for this year at least, Sushant is overall the best on the dirt.

[thehitcat]

WTC Finals should be fun this year. May the best team win

[Brian Swartz]

Hope not … it'll be Ireland if that's the case

[thehitcat]

Competitive then? But yes it should be fun to watch

[Brian Swartz]

Haven't posted on this in a while, but congratulations to John Hart, who ascended to world #1 recently after winning Roland Garros - his third Slam title. I knew he'd make it eventually. And Hughes is up to #4 as well, having beaten Chiba in a coin-flip QF there (blasted fourth-set tiebreaker!).

[thehitcat]

Thanks Brian. All down to you and this thread. I look forward to our continued duels in the coming years. For now I just want to ride this wave with my Irishmen.

[Brian Swartz]

So Ireland beat Sri Lanka 4-1 in the World Team Cup again, this time in the SF. That's not a surprise, but I was annoyed at the way it came, with two 5-set losses by Sushant Chiba. Both were epics, 8-6 in the final stanza against Hart and 11-9 against Hughes. Should have won one of them.

I'm sure a 'luck of the Irish' joke is appropriate here, I'm just not sure how to word it.

[thehitcat]

Lucky indeed as my guys aren't great on the mental side and in my experience that's where long tiebreakers/sets tend to get decided.

[LEONARDSMITH]

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Thank and Regards
LEONARD SMITH
Founder of Green Lands CBDOil

[Brian Swartz]

Ireland wins its second straight WTC championship. Over the last five years, every since they re-entered the competition following a ten-year hiatus, they have played 33 WTC ties. And won all of them. This makes Sri Lanka's rise through the WTC ranks many years earlier look like bumbling efforts of a small child; we ran into Hammerstein's Austria early on and didn't even make it to the top level right away, then had rivalries with Benda's Germans and Iglar's Czech Republic to keep us from any such run of success.

Sri Lanka still holds a narrow lead in national rankings, 2535 points to 2484. That will assuredly go away next year.

[Brian Swartz]

Now I'll toot my own horn briefly. Sushant Chiba, after I didn't even have him in the AO last year due to an oversight, proceeded to run the table including an 11-9 5th-set win over #3 Meikeljohn in the quarterfinals. A four-set SF win over clear #1 Hart and then a straight-sets victory over a cinderella foe in the final gave him his fourth Slam title - vaulting him back up from #5 in the rankings to #3, and nearly 2nd as Kaspar is only a few hundred points ahead. Chiba will be my first major player never to reach #1, but he's still up to 4th in the Sri Lanka legends rundown now ahead of Dudwadkar and it's a great title for him being a little past his prime now at nearly 28 years old. Cool to get a word in edgewise and move back into the Top 4 with him.

On the other hand, for the first time nearly in memory Sri Lanka isn't #1 in the national rankings - a group loss to India started off the year and put our chances of even getting out of that stage in serious jeopardy. It was also enough for Ireland to claim the top spot.

[Brian Swartz]

More bad news for Sri Lanka as we drop another group tie in the WTC, 3-2 again, to the United States. In this group Mexico - which entered the year 15th or worse overall and has never really done anything - has two wins and will make it to the knockout rounds, while India and the USA are fighting for that second spot. As the standings sit now two Top-5 nations (us and the Americans) would both not make it. I've never seen anything remotely like this. Chiba won his two matches but got no help.

The last time Sri Lanka failed to make it out of group play was … wait for it … 2041. It is currently 2064. Almost a quarter-century. And that's literally the only other time, because the year before was the season we promoted up from Level 2. This stuff just doesn't happen to us.

[Brian Swartz]

More interesting news from the life and times of Sushant Chiba. We at Roland Garros in the schedule, and while the clay season didn't start well for him - QF at Monte Carlo, embarrassing third-round loss at Madrid - it has improved. Made the final at Rome, coming up just short in a third-set TB against Molyneaux. Heading into the SF, Chiba has guaranteed himself to surpass Prince Karl 'First of His Name' Kaspar for the first time and get back to #2 in the world. Kaspar suffered an early loss in the round of 16, and I've been hovering just behind him for months. Karl may have 12 more Masters than Sushant (19-7), 3 WTF crowns to my 0, and double the Slam count (8-4), but my prediction that I could surpass him for a time late-career is finally coming to fruition when it seemed it wouldn't.

And that's not all. Next up is defending champion and world #1 John Hart. Hart holds a 12-8 edge in the H2H, but in two meetings on clay Chiba has won both times. The last one was a Rome SF this year, a gross travesty of a match in which Chiba won all his BP, scattered 8 of 11 chances against, and basically performed highway robbery to win in three sets. If he can muster up another win against the pride of Ireland on this larger stage and claim a second RG title against whoever comes out of the other side - won here three years ago - he would be less than 600 points out of the top spot when next week's rankings come out. There's a chance, albeit not a very good one, that he could somehow find his way to #1 in the world before the sun sets on his time in tennis.

[Brian Swartz]

None of that matters now as Hart looks on track to repeat after a 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win in the semifinal. My Irish foil was a little better, and a little luckier each in this match. Chiba played well enough to give himself a chance, but the right player won. Still, getting back to #2 at age 28 is a very nice thing in and of itself.

[thehitcat]

Sushant Chiba just chopped through both my Irishmen at the Canada Masters. 6/7(12) 6/4 7/6 (3) in a tight match over Seamus Hughes in the Quarters and then in another squeaker 6/4 5/7 7/6(9) over Little Johnny Hart in the Semis. Best of luck in the Finals against Brian Meikeljohn.

[Christy]

No. 1 in the world doesn't seem that tough! Beaten by some upstart who has been playing mostly on the challenger circuit. Need to get my boasting in quick before any potential rematch when he is not out of form!

First time since he first made a QF 4 years ago that Hart has not been involved in a slam second week.

[thehitcat]

Originally Posted by Christy

No. 1 in the world doesn't seem that tough! Beaten by some upstart who has been playing mostly on the challenger circuit. Need to get my boasting in quick before any potential rematch when he is not out of form!

First time since he first made a QF 4 years ago that Hart has not been involved in a slam second week.

Sorry I didn't get on earlier to congratulate you. Nothing like having one of your up and comers knock off a top seed or in this case the #1 player in the world. Good luck in the future (against everyone else )

[Christy]

Thank you.

In the end Solberg was a bit too tough but took him to 5 sets (looking back at the US there appears to be a lot of 5 setters actually).

Still it is a good omen going forward. I had some passable careers in gw3 testing things out and Perez seems to be tracking ahead of them so far.

Good to see some Irish doing well. Created some myself but all my created players so far have been below par.

[Brian Swartz]

Perez is a good one. Not a challenger player anymore - and he's going to kick Kasaravalli's arse.

[Christy]

He is. And kicked on well from the US with a 250 final and a 500 victory! Had hoped for all this in a years time. Goals have changed to see if he can make a serious dent in the top 10 next season. Seeding will be important for him. He is defending 325 points before the Australian Open so will likely not make much ground before then but during and after the Open some ground could be made.


Kasaravalli is definitely one of your academy's weaker prospects over recent years but that is not saying much.

[Brian Swartz]

My tracking has him as THE worst - previous players were emerging from Challengers by now, he's got another year. So he'll merely be like Top 5 or something. #EntitledManagerProblems. Just beat the #2 seed at CH2 Tiburon in the QF in a 3-tiebreak match, a Top-50 scalp . .. and then got beat by an unseeded player in the semis. There's been a lot of that kind of inconsistent crap coming out of his results.

I'd say your goals for Perez are quite reasonable. I currently grade him out at 8.32, which is usually good enough for the 5th-8th range. Comparatively, Hart is 8.86, or a hair better than any of my players have ever reached. And it doesn't hurt any of us to have stuff like Meikeljohn's manager criminally overplaying him a lot of the time. The main problem you'll have I think is the strong 'in-their-prime' group that is currently in place. Chiba, ex-Prince Karl, and Andrejova are the only ones who are over-the-hill at all right now. So might have to be a bit patient. World Tour Finals next year would personally be my goal.

.02

[Christy]

I would argue Rodriguez is a serious banana skin at that level due to automatic competition scheduling keeping his ranking down. I would say it is just take the results as they come and not worry about ranking till Kasavaralli is a bit better.

You are probably right on Perez. Getting to top 16 early would be a big help. He should have plenty of improvement in him anyway so probably won't push the schedule to far just yet.

Rodriguez was one of my before actually!

[Brian Swartz]

Chiba is now 0-for-5 in getting past the round-robin stage of the World Tour Finals. Won a close 3-setter against Kaspar, then got beat down by Meikeljohn … and lost to Harald Balzer 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4 to decide it. Meikeljohn wins all three, Kaspar advances among three 1-win guys for second place on the tiebreaker. So the one guy Chiba beat, goes through anyway. I've lost four of five to Balzer now after winning the first five matches against him, but three of the four losses were indoors. Overall played better than he did but a 19-7 disparity in aces did me in.

I just wanted one semi. Ah well. Congrats to those dorks from Ireland, who both advanced out of Group 1.

[britrock88]

The very productive Pargeter-M. Kaspar partnership has concluded as of the recent WTFs, as the Kaspar manager has now paired Mateo with Karl for the doubles circuit. I went down the doubles ranking list to find a new partner for Pargeter and landed on Christian Castelgali, currently ranked 18th. Stuart and Christian should land as the #2 or #3 ranked pair in the early going next season.

[britrock88]

FTR, Pargeter/Mateo landed 8 GS wins and 10 Masters titles in 4 seasons.

From my end, I just wish Pargeter had notched a singles GS win--a crushing 5-set final defeat to Karl at Roland Garros comes to mind--so that he could rank among the American legends.

[Brian Swartz]

That's one heck of a doubles career. Pretty sound choice in partners

[Brian Swartz]

National Rankings

1. Ireland - 2604
2. Argentina - 2372
3. Sri Lanka - 2219
4. France - 2195
5. Spain - 2038
6. Sweden - 2037
7. United States - 2012
8. Thailand - 2000
9. Italy - 1876
10. The Netherlands - 1869

Look how far we've fallen; Ireland remains a dominant force, and we were thrown into the once-unthinkable position of being in a relegation playoff. Kasaravalli made his WTC singles debut, and we beat Morocco 3-2 ... but have started the new year off wrong with an indoors loss to Russia (3-1 pending the final rubber). Russia is ranked 15th, and we also have #6 Sweden and #8 Thailand in our group. We could very easily fail to escape the group round again. Sri Lanka is only a shadow of our former selves. We will rise again, but man is this ugly.

Also, the Americans are definitely down a lot further than I'm used to seeing them; always a Top-4 or 5 nation most of the time.

[Brian Swartz]

Not sure how far I'll go with it in the coming year, but with my two youngsters coming out of juniors I want to try to do some proper end/start-of-year update stuff.

2065 Player Rankings

1. John Hart(IRE, 27) - 14,330

At midseason there was some question as to whether Hart would retain the top spot. That doubt is long-gone. The world's best player is in his prime and has won 90+ singles matches three years running, with a personal-best 97-6 mark this past season. 5 Masters, 2 Slams, and the WTF - a blind bet on him to win any big event would do better than 50/50.

2. Sushant Chiba(SRI, 28) - 9,880

Finally did ascend past Prince Karl this year, aided mightily by the 'second Kaspar' deciding to go doubles. I predicted this would happen eventually - but I thought it'd carry Chiba to a brief stay at #1. It happened far too late for that. One Slam (Australia) was his only big success, but six more runner-up appearances make him the clear #2 and help ease the pain of yet another crap showing at the WTF. 77 singles match wins is a personal high ... but 18 defeats is the most in the last four years. The nation's struggles in the WTC have a lot to do with those facts.

3. Barry Molyneaux(USA, 26) - 7,355

The American standard-bearer is an enigma, champion at the USO and Rome but had early exits at RG and half of the Masters events. If he can find more consistency, he could be the top challenger to Hart's throne.

4. Brian Meikeljohn(IND, 26) - 6,035

The top player in Indian history - and it's not close, nobody else has cracked the Top 10 - Meikeljohn's speed is legendary. Unfortunately, the mismanagement of his schedule and training is a close second in notability. The Canada Masters was his only big title this year, and we're still waiting for that breakout season that may well never come.

5. Karl Kaspar(FRA, 30) - 5,550

An All-Kaspar doubles pairing of King and Prince was inevitable, and will be the bane of the pairs tour. It also will leave a hole, as Prince Karl 'First of His Name' has won 8 Slams, 3 WTFs, and 19 Masters shields in a sparkling career in which he spent almost three full years as the #1 singles player on the planet.

6. Harald Balzer(SUI, 25) - 4,850

Balzer is the highest-ranking Swiss since the first decade of the international tour, and Harald hopes to become just the second from his country to win a singles major. Or Masters, for that matter. He made the second week of three Slams including runner-up at RG ... but exited by round of 16 in every last Masters he played. Something's gotta give there.

7. Seamus Hughes(IRE, 27) - 4,820

The 'other Irishman' was once ranked as high as 4th, and it's not too late for him to get back there. This season was his worst in the last four years, but it was mostly just bad luck I think. He's not quite over the hill yet.

8. Ali Solberg(SWE, 25) - 4,780

6-8 are all jockeying for position here, and almost withing striking range of 4th-ranked Meikeljohn. Things could get very interesting. Solberg was inconsistent, but reached the Wimbledon final and had three other big semis to his credit. He's becoming an increasingly feared name in the draw.

9. Valery Stachovsky(RUS, 26) - 3,880

AO finalist ... and third-round loser at the other three Slams. A trio of Masters quarterfinals ... and he skipped two mandatory events there as well. Stachovsky could do something, or nothing. He's got stuff to figure out here.

10. Isa Solheim(25, DEN) - 3,360

Do not adjust your reception, we have a Top-10 player from Denmark. Solheim's ranking is twice as good as that of Jens Petersen, who flourished a generation ago and was the previous standard-bearer. Former doubles no. 1 Egon Bengtsson is the only bigger name in Danish tennis history. A handful of strong results include the highlight of a Monte Carlo runner-up showing, but it's another mixed bag here.

11. Mike Rhodes(26, PHI)

Somebody tell Rhodes that you have to do more than win 250s at this level. Seven of them last year. Only five counted towards his ranking. And that doesn't include the crapton he didn't win. Meanwhile, 4th round or worse at the Slams. He can break into the Top 10 without even working at it if he schedules better.

14. Jorge Campos(26, MEX)

A semifinalist at Wimbledon ... and that's it. Is he going up or down?

15. Fabrizio Abinati(26, ARG)

Same thing here. QF at RG was his one good result.

16. Srba Dogic(23, CRO)

Just turned 23, and had deep runs at the USO and Cincinatti. Likes the summer hard-courts apparently. At this age one would expected greater things are ahead.

17. Tim de Jong(23, NLD)

A Challenger player at this point last year, de Jong is on the rise. How far is an open question though.

19. Nicolas Perez(22, ARG)

Youngest player in the Top-32 by almost a full year, Perez likewise is up from the Challengers. QF at the USO and champion at the Japan Open (500), he broke through late in the year and big things are expected. Timing is the only question.

20. Constantino Gonzoles(24, ARG)

Argentina is swimming in rising youngsters these days. Gonzoles can point to multiple 250-level successes and a QF run at Roland Garros.

21. Samuel Aas(24, SWE)

Consistent at the 250/500 level, Aas still has time to show he can aim higher.

22. Clavet Moniotte(23, FRA)

Another guy transitioning from the challenger circuit. Jury's still out.

26. Patrick Sanchez(26, ARG)

Hey Argentina - how many of these guys do you NEED?!?

27. Stefan Baloch(25, ITA)

A weird batch of results - didn't win a title at any level last year. Looks like a guy who tried to make the jump to the big time too early and kind of floundered around.

30. Matteus Ameen(30, SWE)

13 Challenger titles just last year. Never got by the second round in three Slam appearances. That's stupefying, but the others floating around the Top-50 level will be glad to get a word in edgewise with Ameen presumptively joining the elite group.

32. Guillermo Valturri(25, MEX)

Limited 250 success, CH+ Helsinki a few weeks ago was his biggest trophy. We'll see if he sticks.


Overview

Looks like a decent mix with a little above-average group pushing up, and a bunch of in-their-prime guys set to start declining in a year or two. A good year to be patient ... and then make your move in '66. Of course, patience is not something most players enjoy, even when it's required.

[Brian Swartz]

2065 Preview

1. John Hart - 91%, 8.84

Athletically only a little above-average, Hart has no peers technically. He's an elite player from the back and I don't often see a better serve (5.3/4.3). No reason he shouldn't continue to easily stay on top.

2. Sushant Chiba - 87%, 8.61

The elite mental game allows Chiba to still be better than almost everyone else, but he's just hanging on technically and what modest athleticism he did have is quickly going away. If he can avoid an early AO loss, he could well retain the #2 spot just by virtue of being competitive with the rest of the pack and having favorable draws.

3. Barry Molyneaux - 90%, 8.61

Elite strength and even better mentality than Chiba, Molyneaux is missing only consistency and, critically, ability to hang in the rallies. He's fast, but not fast enough to make up for that against the better-serving players. That's really his biggest weakness and it probably keeps him about where he is.

4. Brian Meikeljohn - 90%, 8.89

Meikeljohn has excellent mental skill, and I've still not seen anyone close to matching his incredible footspeed. Technique is now typical top-player fare, and that combination should make him a serious competitor for Hart. As I said years ago. Without the mismanagement, we wouldn't being talking about Irish ascendancy in such unqualified terms. But it appears he'd rather play on both tours - Brian is ranked 34th in doubles as well - and so the world's best player on paper continues to sabotage his chances of becoming that on the court.

5. Karl Kaspar - 84%, 8.27

The doubles diversion has sapped his ability to maintain his level, clearly. It's remarkable he continued to play as well as he has, but Karl is now leaving the singles fight to others.

6. Harald Balzer - 91%, 8.46

Balzer is a quality athlete with fairly good mental habits, and you seriously don't want to mess with him if the crowd favors his fortunes. A subpar serve is what holds him back at the top level, and he's a meteoric talent who won't be around long. All of that adds up to him never going any higher than 5th most likely.

7. Seamus Hughes - 90%, 8.57

Second only to his countryman in technique, Hughes unfortunately has cement feet even moreso than Chiba. Still, he's arguably the guy who should take Kaspar's spot behind the Top 4.

8. Ali Solberg - 93%, 8.60

The highest-ranked player who still has his best tennis ahead of him, at least in theory, Solberg is also a serious competitor for that #5 spot. The draw system is really the only thing keeping him from aiming higher this year, but a Top-4 berth in the future certainly seems like a strong possibility. Speed and mental game are quite good, and Ali isn't all-time great material but he checks all the important boxes. Rally skill is just a hair low ... but again he's a year away from his prime so that may well come.

9. Valery Stachovsky - 92%, 8.41

A gifted player whose serve is the envy of almost anyone from not-Ireland, Stachovsky isn't much of an athlete. He's focused on the indoor courts, which could make him a real WTF threat if he can slide up a spot. Relative to other top players though he has a real weakness on hard courts, and doesn't have the game to make up for it.

10. Isa Solheim - 93%, 8.47

Quite good in pressure situations, solid technique, reasonably mobile ... but the power game just isn't there for Solheim. Close to the full package, but not quite the whole thing. Still, Solheim should be a fixture in the lower reaches of the Top-10 for a few years. And for a Dane, that's rarefied air.

11. Mike Rhodes - 91%, 8.29

Mismanagement kills, and you have to do more than serve. Mike's first-strike weapon is the best in the game, and he still has quite impressive physical power. He's slow, mentally weak, and never bothered to figure out how to rally effectively enough to hang with the best. Ultimately those weaknesses count for qutie a bit more than the strengths, but he's nobody's idea of a safe opponent.

14. Jorge Campos - 91%, 8.01

Slow and technically subpar, I'm going with overrated here. Campos shouldn't be a threat to the Top 10.

15. Fabrizio Abinati - 92%, 8.32

Abinati is a solid athlete, just isn't quite there technically. Still could improve some and should be ranked a bit higher. Close ... but it's getting a bit late for him to make the improvements he needs to. Probably will sneak onto the first page for perhaps a year.

16. Srba Dogic - 96%, 8.26

Good power and better mental focus, Dogic is lacking significantly in baseline play but still has time. Dedication isn't all that impressive but it's good enough - Croatia's first Top-10 player since the decline of Svajnovic would appear to be in the near future here.

17. Tim de Jong - 96%, 8.23

de Jong is a natural (5.0 talent), his serve is at least good enough right now, and he has pretty good power. The rally skill is lacking, however. Another guy that should get on the top page eventually. It'll be interesting to see whether Tim or Srba ends up with the better career. From this vantage point it could go either way.

19. Nicolas Perez - 98%, 8.41

Hard work overcomes many obstacles. Perez is proof, as he's nothing special as an athlete but dedication to his craft (4.7 endurance) has him playing at a Top-10 level right now, just past his 22nd birthday. The success he found at the end of last year is no fluke, but he's not enough better than those ahead of him to make immediate further progress a gimme. Still, Nicolas seems primed to eventually give Argentina a serious run at having the next #1 after Hart. I don't see any serious rival at the moment.

20. Constantino Gonzoles - 95%, 8.49

Gonzoles is the flip side of that coin. He has fine physical gifts, and is a mental powerhouse. Constantino is also lazy, which shows in his technique. Probably slightly the better player right now, and he figures to have a fine career, but he won't hold a candle to Perez in the long run.

21. Samuel Aas - 93%, 8.24

A weak mind holds Aas back, but technique is strong and athleticism adequate. Still looking like an odd man out in this generation, just not quite as good as the others.

22. Clavet Moniotte - 97%, 8.10

Abysmal baseline play, partly due to too much time spent on doubles concepts, spoils an otherwhise fine French package. Moniotte already has a good serve, so how far he goes depends largely on how much he concentrates effort on that one glaring weakness.

** Note: This is a really good group overall, lots of 8+ improving players. Impressive generation.

26. Patrick Sanchez - 94%, 8.25

Best athlete in a generation that has some quite good ones. Too much doubles though, and the technical abilities just aren't there. Sanchez is an interesting curiosity, but too much ground to make up.

27. Stefan Baloch - 93%, 8.14

Baloch has been very well-developed, but lacks the endurance or athleticism to really threaten the best competition. It's rare that I see a player who doesn't have elite gifting but has been pretty much optimized - Baloch has quality technique from a somewhat limited skillset. That deserves a round of applause, and I'll be rooting for him to do well. A bit of a clay specialist who does well at home, so Rome could be a big event for him.

30. Matteus Ameen - 97%, 8.15

Solid across the board really. Ameen is missing only some technique improvements, and very average endurance is to blame for that I think. Another player who won't be a pushover at his peak and has been well-handled.

32. Guillermo Valturri - 94%, 7.94

Weak baseline play, solid serve with some power, but definitely a cut below the others.

69. Amrik Kasaravalli - 98%, 8.07

True to what Christy mentioned, Kasaravalli isn't as bad as his late-developing ranking would indicate. He's still behind the pace in terms of abilities compared to my other players, but the quality of competition plays a part here as well. That's a serious pack of players to fight through ahead, in terms of depth and variety probably the best I've seen. The lot of you in this thread have a good deal to do with it. As the lagging technique improves, Amrik will be making a push to break out of the Challengers around the end of this year or beginning of the next. Among the players his age, from what I've seen so far Perez is clearly a couple of cuts above but we're in the same ballpark as the others here.

1495. Nasir Chittoor - 87%, 5.64

Just slightly ahead of the pace of Dudwadkar(+1 raw skill at the same age), my best player from a technical training point of view, Chittoor has won both amateur events he entered. Only finished about 30th in juniors, but he was younger than most of the others on purpose and that played a role. Partering with Guha really bolstered him as they made it deep in many doubles events; on the other hand I screwed up a lot of weeks his first couple of years to slow him down. A power outage just this past week didn't help things either.

NR, 2212(D). Satyajit Guha - 89%, 4.92

If that looks like a big gap between two players who are basically the same age ... well, it is. Guha, as shown by his early singles exits, isn't quite ready for even amateur events. He's close though. The big elephant in the room is the fact that he's at 3.7 in doubles ability as he leaves the junior ranks. Scheduling will be interesting at times - so far the pairing has won both amateur events in doubles. I'll have to stagger some what events they enter, at times Chittoor's singles will push us to bigger events and Guha won't be ready for them, etc. Overall though, Guha's presence allows Chittoor to get experience more efficiently, and I continue to be intrigued by just how high I can get the 'lesser' player in singles, what his doubles career will look like, and so on. Eventually I'll need a proper higher-ranking partner for him.

Many questions to sort out, but for now we're progressing smoothly towards jumping into futures. If anyone wants me to look at any of the younger players you are training, I'll add a blurb on them as well.

[thehitcat]

Tommy Fitzpatrick? Wouldn't want you to have the top ten to yourself... Oh and that Morroco you took out was the last gasp of Hamal Sbai keeping his country in the top flight more or less by himself for 3 years.

[Brian Swartz]

NR. Tommy Fitzpatrick - 91%, 5.98

Fitzpatrick made several SF his last year in juniors, and has now progressed to the senior tour. Decent but unimpressive athleticism and mental game, he has excellent endurance and won't be unranked for long - he's playing his first amateur event at press time. Same age class as Guha/Chittoor, but a little bit older with corresponding development.

Morocco definitely deserved an easier matchup. Usually a player as good as Sbai is enough to keep a nation up.

[thehitcat]

"Decent but unimpressive athleticism and mental game" is the hallmark of my players...with as much Endurance as I can get Thanks!

And don't cry for Hamal yet, he just won 3 matches against China himself more or less. He and Morocco may bounce back up.

[Brian Swartz]

I decided to just go ahead and add the other players, at least those who are relevant, from the other people who post in this thread whether they asked me to or not, want me to or not. Then I'll use these are part of the reference for future reports, should I make any.

84. Joao Narcisco - 99%, 7.30

Looks like he was picked up after about a four-year spell on AI control. Impressive that it didn't totally ruin him. Narcisco is a good athlete who has Doubles Diversion Disease and is behind technically, though not as much as you might think. He won't be a star, but he'll at least rise far enough to be worth mentioning in his own right if well-handled.

NR. Ritwik Intodia - 88%, 5.78

One of a couple of my cast-offs, Intodia's junior high was 41st. Still, he's a little ahead of Chittoor at the moment and appears to be off to a good start. Good mentality, above-average athleticism.

NR. Rakesh Kayeeda - 88%, 5.54

Slower and not as good in pressure moments, Kayeeda doesn't look as promising. Still, if both of these plus Fitzpatrick keep getting developed, it'll be quite the competitive generation. I've got others out there under the control of unknown management - we'll see if they prove themselves relevant down the line.

[Christy]

Thanks for all the work on these! Including on the (now ex) juniors.

If you ever need any help with them just ask.

Rhodes showed you were right in your analysis. Took two tie break sets on hard courts which he doesn't like for Perez to take him out. Winning more points only helps so much when you can't get breaks. Will probably end up 2nd to Hart but the form was the main goal of the competition (and likely the year) which I already have by making the final.

I had to look back at previous generations to get an idea of this one is doing and it definitely comes in swings.

I reckon De Jong over Dogic BTW as de Jong has managed to keep up with him so far and Dogic is meteoric.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Christy

If you ever need any help with them just ask.

I want Chittoor to have 5.5 strength and speed. Oh, not what you meant? Probably a good pick with De Jong, we'll see what happens there.


Nasir Chittoor and the Quest for 8.9
Juniors Overview

By 8.9 of course I refer to my 'overall rating'. All of my players have hit around 8.75, and Dudwadkar had the highest - although a bit brief - peak AFAIK at 8.83. So if I can get to 8.90 or better, that would definitely make Chittoor my best ever, and I think it's achievable. I also wanted to do a bit of a walkthrough through his career and show how it compares to other players of mine around the way - and what I've changed in my approach over time.

Raw Training Comparison

The raw skill/service/doubles numbers from my previous players. I didn't start tracking Girsh till age 21, and Mehul till age 24, so this isn't complete. But at age 18, here's how the others fared:

** Moojee 72/46/1
** Dudwadkar 67/54/0
** Chiba 69/48/2
** Kasaravalli 64/51/0
** Chittoor 68/54/0
** Guha 51/40/71

We can see how much including the doubles is affecting Guha, and also that I used to do skill a lot more early on. Now I keep it more even between skill/service at first, and gradually 'tilt' the balance to the desired ratio by the time they hit 4.0 service, as I've previously discussed. Among the others, Chiba and Kasaravalli were definitely the ones lagging behind at this age. Chittoor is just a hair ahead of the pace set by Mooljee and Dudwadkar here.

Juniors Results

This is the7th 'generation' of Sri Lanka talents I've raised and trained. They are listed in chronological order here. As you might imagine, what was once a matter of literally being alive and able to draw breath to get into the national Legends roll now takes a bit more doing. Kasaravalli just debuted at #10 - you've got to be well inside the Top 100 now to make it, so my latest proteges have some work to do before that happens.

** Anil Mehul - 9 titles, 15y 14w to 18y 32w, peaked at #15
** Girish Girsh - 10, 15y 19w to 18y 16w, #6
** Prakash Mooljee - 17, 14y 46w to 17y 43w, #11
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 8 , 15y 6w to 18y 9w, #8
** Sushant Chiba - 19, 15y 1w to 17y 44w, #3
** Amrik Kasaravalli - 10, 15y 33 w to 18y 5w, #6
** Nasir Chittoor - 11, 15y 29w to 16y 38w, #13
** Satyajit Guha - 4, 15y 51w to 17y 28w, #68

I've made this point before, but the biggest thing to get from all this is that juniors results don't tell you much of anything about how good as a pro a prospect will be. Chiba was my finest junior, and my first player never to make it to #1 as a senior thanks to the Kaspars and Irish. Aside from Guha, Mehul was among the worst and is recognized as the nation's finest ever player, justifiably. He was an 'old' junior on the opposite end as Chittoor, but also had a rock-bottom aging factor of 95%. And then there's Mooljee, who found success early but his later development years were not so kind. find these measures a lot more useful though as we go through the higher levels of competition. Along with the raw training comparisons, they provide a useful yardstick or framework to measure whether a player is progressing more quickly or slowly than my previous attempts. While I'm only going to include my own players here, those of you who have others of similar age like Fitzpatrick or Intodia may wish to see how your results compare as well.

As a general rule, it's been mentioned you want a good doubles partner in this stage. First year(age 14-15) is about establishing the player as JG5 and you'll lose a lot the first few months. Second year at JG4, third year at JG3, final year at JGS/JGA/JG1s primarily, the big events. And of course any JTC apperances you can make will help a lot. I continue to favor, at all levels, the idea of playing the biggest event you can confidently be a Top-4 seed at. Sometimes you can find a favorable spot in the schedule with a busy week to 'play up' a level above what you'd normally be able to do.

[Brian Swartz]

Amateur Results

** Anil Mehul - 3, 19y 4w to 19y 16w
** Girish Girsh - 3, 18y 38w to 19y 5w
** Prakash Mooljee - 4, 18y 9w to 18y 45w
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 3, 18y 44w to 19y 10w
** Sushant Chiba - 3, 18y 41w to 18y 51w
** Amrik Kasaravalli - 3, 18y 33w to 18y 41w
** Nasir Chittoor - 1, 17y 51w to 17y 51w
** Satyajit Guha - 0, NA

Amateur tournaments are for anyone ranked outside the top 1000. This doesn't last long, and generally requires players rated approximately 5.0-5.25 to succeed in. Strong players will be at this easily upon turning pro and leaving the junior ranks, which is why none of my prospects stayed here long. It takes four tournaments to get through at 6 points for a win; 20-21 points are required to get you to 1000th in the rankings. Of course you can skip them entirely, but as 64-draw events both singles and doubles they are worth the matches you can get, unless you are too good for practicing against players of this level. That would require a particularly prodigious talent (i.e., Kaspar/Gorritepe level pretty much) or a high aging factor. I'm getting pretty good practice results even with Chittoor. And you can see that only Mooljee actually won four tournaments at this level, meaning the others lost at least once.

Contrary to what I said before, Chittoor actually lost a close final in his second try, so he's already joined the well-stocked 'didn't sweep the amateurs' club. It was the usual deal against a high-skill, no-serve player who had 24 doubled faults but won over half of Chittoor's serve points. That kind of match is annoying and we'll see them for a while. Mehul being a late starter in terms of age is also seen here - but he plowed his way through in little time. With the later players I started doing, as I have with my latest pair, a tournament or two late in their final juniors year after the USO(J). Mooljee is the only one who seems to have sort of stalled a bit here, taking a lot longer between first and last amateur titles.

Chittoor got his first amateur win 10 weeks faster than Mooljee and a lot faster than anyone else - it'll be interesting to see how long it takes him to get through. You can pretty much count on Guha to have not won any events by that time; he'll sort of just get dragged up to futures 'before his time'. The other factor at play here is that Nasir, due to getting all the way through the doubles draw with having a top-quality partner for that and all, will be able to take more practice weeks in-between events. This is beneficial in terms of training efficiently, but will also serve to keep him at the Amateur level longer than otherwhise due to tournaments being more spaced-out.

[Christy]

Figured I would add my own for comparison. This is any player I kept long enough to get to the top 32.

GW1:
Samuel Aas (17yr 47wk ) 5.95 73/50/4 Junior: 21 (Inc. 4 JGS)
15Yr*9wk 18Yr*22wk
Amateur: 1
18Yr*14wk 18Yr*14wk


Nicolas Perez (17yr 43wk ) 5.82 75/51/0 Junior: 14(Inc. 1 JGS)
14Yr*47wk 18Yr*5wk
Amateur: 1
18Yr*14wk 18Yr*14wk


Ritwik Intodia (17yr 50wk) 5.46 69/46/0 Junior: 11
15Yr*28wk 17Yr*3wk
Rakesh Kayeeda (17yr 49wk ) 5.29 71/48/0 Junior: 7
15Yr*7wk 16Yr*44wk

GW3:
Bruno Corbolan (18yr 1wk) 5.38 67/44/4 Junior: 7
15Yr*23wk 18Yr*13wk
Amateur: 3
18Yr*30wk 19Yr*1wk


Natalio Arvizu 17yr 49wk 5.79 71/48/9 Junior: 18 (inc 2 JGS)
14Yr*30wk 18Yr*9wk
Amateur: 2
18Yr*39wk 18Yr*43wk

Stevan Cason 5.88 18yr 7wk 73/48/3 Junior: 11
15Yr*0wk 18Yr*7wk
Amateur: 4
18Yr*20wk 18Yr*38wk


Santa Claus 5.68 (I didn't name him) 18yr 17wk 72/45/5 Junior: 10
15Yr*26wk 17Yr*16wk
Amateur 3
18Yr*29wk 18Yr*40wk


Shows your junior point to be true. Aas dominated at that level far more than any other player I have had.

Comparing to you I might be too timid putting them into high level competitions. I suspect my junior wins are inflated by the lower levels (except Aas who was great then).

For the GW3 players. Cason went nowhere. Generally around Aas' current level.
Bruno was a decent teens player. Made a masters final. Arvizu was about the same level but clay specialisation brought him to 3rd. Two Masters and Two GS to his name (all clay). Did make two WTF finals but lost them both.
Santa Claus was incredible. Reached 8.68.
And achieved nothing. Reached 2 GS Finals and a Masters final. Lost 9-7 in the final set in Wimbledon and massacred twice. In the end he was around at the same time as two all time greats and couldn't get by them. He reached 14 GS quarter finals in 4 years and couldn't bring home a trophy.

Shows timing and specialisation can make a difference. For all the speed of the game there are still some really good GW3 players somehow.

[Brian Swartz]

January

It was a month to forget for us. After losing to Russia 3-2 in the WTC, though Amrik Kasaravalli did manage a five-set win on the final day to make that pill a bit easier to swallow, we proceeded to other matters. Kasaravalli managed a 3-seed at CH1 Sao Paolo, where he lost in three sets in the quarterfinals. To an unseeded player who would win just four games against the 2-seed in the semis. Sushant Chiba did even worse, losing to unseeded players in the QFs of back-to-back 250s; local WC William Todhunter in Brisbane, and eventual finalist Harald Wentz in Sydney. So undistinguished is that pair that it's entirely possible I'll never have cause to mention their names again. .

Both youngsters took the time to train - Chittoor isn't due for another tournament until early March. Chiba, the world no. 2, enters the Australian Open at 3-3 on the young season. Either he pulls his head out of his arse, or the defending champion will be fortunate to so much as make the second week this year.

[Christy]

That was frustrating. Perez had beaten Stachovsky in the US Open and thought he could do it again. He proved he could though but also simply didn't. In position to win all 5 sets, only managed 2 of them. The draw was very nice to Perez here though it has to be said. He might sneak into a top 16 berth after that. Gains 135 points and a few ahead of him are not moving or falling backwards. Should get to 17th and Kaspar seems to have given up all singles matches.

A match that bodes well for the future but definitely would have been nice to get through. Especially as Solheim would have been a winnable quarter final. Need to figure out scheduling before IW now, a win might have kept me out of competition till then. Now might dip into the Argentine Open to keep up form.

You had me worried as my round 1 match was vs William Todhunter and I read your post right before the match! We also had a rematch against Il Sung Jung who was a rival when they were both juniors (Ollie Haas being the number 1 at the time).

Aas pushed Balzer (who also struggled vs an unseeded opponent in the 4th round).


Chiba is doing well though had a bit of an armchair ride to the quarter finals. Now he gets some serious tests to keep going to defend his title.

I expected Kasaravalli to lose vs Solberg. He returned fine against him (28% is not bad in that match up) but his serve seemed to go to pieces and Solberg ate him up badly.

We also had De Jong beat Dogic though the latter will remain ahead in the rankings.

[Brian Swartz]

It was Kasaravalli's first-ever Slam victory, so I'll definitely take the good draw I got in the first round for him. Also managed to luck out with a blast from the past, Ruben Piazzola, as his doubles partner and won a round there. He was never going to beat Solberg so definitely a good tournament for him. Chiba continues to have epic matches with Seamus Hughes, this time rallying from two sets down to win in five. Five consecutive best-of-five matches between the two have gone the distance. That's just wacko. Solberg's won the last two HC matchups so it'll be a tough semi, but either way Sushant has done enough to keep a solid grip on the #2 spot which is good enough for me.

[Christy]

Indeed. It was good to get a win and I never expected a win there in the second round. Just expected a different game. I think he could have taken a few of the weaker seeds but getting one of them in round 2 might have been asking a bit much.

A good win for Chiba against Hughes. This is a big moment for Solberg to kick on or wait in the wings for a while longer.

I think a lot would have needed for Chiba to lose the number 2 spot. A host of strong Masters performances and another runner up Grand Slam spot last year means he was not too reliant on one result. The fact that he is kept up a good showing here probably means he can also afford slip ups in future competitions and still keep number 2. Going down in ability he may be but there are still few who will match him (from a technical point of view I think it is just the Irish)

2 other random points.

I was checking back on last years results and noticed how much Mateo Kaspar's name kept coming up. With my players in the lower leagues I had not realised his dominance. Especially in Australia with 11 in a row!!! He didn't fade either, he left the GS scene on a win. Looking at his history is incredible.


I have been checking up on how many experience points my players get over time. I took away any of the experience that was down to talent and just focused on matches/training. I worked out that each 0.1 of experience gives you about 7.3 extra experience per week. Roughly. Obviously this will go up if you are in Grand Slams and WTC matches a lot near the top of the rankings or down if a player is mismanaged/competing in lower level competitions/getting one sided matches. The trend from my various players looks pretty linear so I am happy that is how it is done.

[Brian Swartz]

Re: Chiba and the #2 - I'd already lost 200 points with the 250 results, and if I'd gone out in even the QFs, I would have lost most of the cushion I had on the 3-5 spots.

As it is, things worked out pretty well. After a bad first set, he rallied to beat Ali Solberg in four despite getting severely out-aced. 2nd and 4th sets were tiebreaks, so the mental game came up big there to get the win. Then it was John Hart in the final. He hadn't lost a set all tournament - and still didn't, claiming a 7-6(5), 6-1, 6-4 victory. I think Hart is going to rip the tour a new one for the next couple of years and potentially post a couple of historically great seasons. That's partly because he's an excellent player, and partly because nobody else is better than 'very good'. The Irish champion holds four of the five big titles right now, last year's early USO loss being the lone exception. And, one would think, a rare one. I don't see him going unbeaten or anything like that, but he's going to be tough to defeat in a 5-set format, regardless of surface.

[thehitcat]

From your lips to god's ears. EdIT I thought the Australian completed Hart's career Grand Slam which would have been pretty exciting having raised him up from his 14 year old days, but it turns out he's still never won the US Open Whoops!. Hughes is an interesting case to me. He's just slightly worse than Hart but he's never won anything bigger than a 250. A 3-15 record against Chiba doesn't help but with the new generation starting to make its mark I'm not sure he'll ever get over the hump.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group 4, Round 2
Sri Lanka(3rd) vs. Sweden(4th)

Before Russia threw a wrench into things, one would have thought this would be the pair who would tussle for the group's top spot. An unceremonious loss in doubles put us down 2-1 with Sushant Chiba grabbing the only win. Chiba had a second 4-set victory in as many weeks over Ali Solberg to level the tie, and then a stunning turn of events as Amrik Kasaravalli upset 19th-ranked Jorgen Henriksson, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 to give Sri Lanka an unlikely and much-needed 3-2 win!

I thought we'd be facing Thailand in the final group round to avoid going back to the relegation playoff. We still rank behind Sweden on tiebreakers despite having beaten them though. If they defeat Russia, we could still find ourselves not getting through even if we beat Thailand. They have two Top-30 players so they are no pushovers, and yet are likely to find themselves in the relegation playoff.

Basically, Group 4 is just plain stupid.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by thehitcat

Hughes is an interesting case to me. He's just slightly worse than Hart but he's never won anything bigger than a 250. A 3-15 record against Chiba doesn't help but with the new generation starting to make its mark I'm not sure he'll ever get over the hump.

I don't think the gap between them is that small. 8.84 compared to 8.57. Hughes has definitely gotten unlucky, but basically Hart is good enough that he doesn't have to be lucky. Hughes is merely one of several very good players: Chiba, Solberg, Molyneaux all very comparable, Meikeljohn quite a bit better. He does seem to be missing that 'something extra' that champions have, but in most generations I think he's be peaking at #2 or #3 and not for all that long.

.02

[Christy]

Question on trainers:

It says in the help section that they retire at 60 but you still seem to have Manohar at 62. What is the retirement age as I have just realised my own is getting on in years.