Werewolf LVI: Beneath the Iron Cross - GAME OVER, VILLAGERS WIN!

[jeheinz72]

I guess one main question I'd pose is...

If we're guessing here, if the 7 people I listed earlier all really do have an equal chance of being the wolf, then how many whiffs do we make until we do entertain the idea that Hoops wasn't lying?

Keeping in mind that the longer we wait, the greater the chance that the wolf that remains does find the Unholy Mark? We've got the numbers right now at no worse than 9:2 right now, probably 10:1. If we mis-lynch

[jeheinz72]

(continued) it's potentially 8:2 if the wolf hits the Unholy Mark.

[RendeR]

I voted Ant because Olie did =) and he only other person garnering votes was me and well, yeah I'm not voting to lynch myself.

I'm not looking to lead a charge on you jeheinz, I'm just deducing the situation of those lists based on what I know, of that first group, I don't have a reason to trust you. I know I'm not a wolf and as I said, I don't believe Real Deal would defend me as a wolf. He might, as BK pointed out, but I don't think so in this case.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

1. We both know it's a bigger leap of faith that hoops would pick some dolt off the street (aka me) to be a Wolf than it is that he would double-bluff and provide the actual wolf game

And just to cover this point, I disagre completely, it would be far simpler to believe he actually chose you than to buy the seling out a teamate to buy trust tactic.

[jeheinz72]

Antmeister: 3 (saldana, oliegirl, RealDeal)
RendeR: 4 (Barkeep49, ArlingtonColt, Antmeister, ntnDeacon)

No Vote From: jeheinz72, ChiefRum, path12, RendeR (I see the unvote, but I didn't see the actual Ant vote)

[oliegirl]

I voted for Ant for 2 reasons...

1. We need to lynch someone tonight, and we need to "stand together" as much as possible. I don't feel right voting for RendeR just based on Hoops accusations.

2. Ant seemed fairly quiet the first day or two...however once Hoops was gone, he got a bit more vocal...this makes me wonder if he's stepped into the "head wolf" role. He hasn't played that much so I'm thinking that maybe he was laying low while he could to avoid the dreaded paw in mouth syndrome that points out the wolves to us villagers...

I'm willing to move my vote, but not to RendeR. If someone else has a good argument against someone else, let's discuss it and see if we can figure something out.

[RealDeal]

Wow. exciting vote. Assuming render votes for Ant, we got a tie with three votes outstanding.

[jeheinz72]

Vote Antmeister

[jeheinz72]

I can't say I feel great about it, but people (ok, at least someone) I trust is flat out saying they won't vote RendeR. I'm willing to go with the group here and give Ant a shot. If he's villager though, I'll be wanting to take another look at RendeR, I think we can only ignore that elephant in the room for so long.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Its terrible WW play to be perfectly honest. You have to think that if they're right, then Hoops made what I would see as a really unethical play to oust his team and end the game early, which goes against the game itself. So even barring blind man-love (sorry bk, couldn't resist) that point should tell you that he's lied about fingering me.

So pretend it's not you. Let's say he called me out as the other wolf. Are you telling me you would just accept the fact I must be good then? You act like you don't see the logic at all and that everyone is just bandwagoning on what hoops said without any other thought or consideration.

I think it's very possible you are not a wolf. But here is what is not in your favor:

1 -- You make sense as a choice for hoops to pick as a fellow wolf. That is a compliment, by the way.
2 -- You are one of maybe six or seven of us that don't have a role attached or assumed. The only logical roles that are still unknown are the seer/fool, cultist, or various types of wolves. Per Olie, you don't have a role, so you're not the seer/fool. You are as valid a choice in that mix as any of the rest of us -- myself included.
3 -- In a game of second guessing, you could actually get called out by hoops if he knew you were a wolf that would scan villager and likely get away with it for at least a couple of days, since we are prone to not believing things that are told to us (RealDeal's reveal in the 40K game he mentioned being a prime example). Hoops could out you with the thought that we would squabble for a couple days whether or not to lynch you while you extra chances to hit the Unholy Mark (which, if we think that BK is the Holy Mark, we've got to think someone is Unholy).
4 -- As a non-role, we don't risk killing the seer/fool.

I think those are all valid reasons for a vote -- they may be wrong, but they are not illogical.

[path12]

Oops, looks like all the above was already talked about. I should always read before typing.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I can't say I feel great about it, but people (ok, at least someone) I trust is flat out saying they won't vote RendeR. I'm willing to go with the group here and give Ant a shot. If he's villager though, I'll be wanting to take another look at RendeR, I think we can only ignore that elephant in the room for so long.

If Ant turns out to be a villager then I'm totally willing to revisit the RendeR thing tomorrow.

FYI - I'll be around in the morning, but am leaving about 11 or 12 to go out of town...so I'll be out of touch until around 5 or so. I'm staying with the family of a friend of mine, so I'm not sure how much access I'll have to the internet, but I'm sure I'll be able to check in and see what's going on.

[path12]

Current trust levels:

High Trust: Arlington, Oliegirl, ntndeacon
Some Trust: Barkeep
No Read: saldana, Antmeister, jeheinz
Some Distrust: Render
Somewhat More Distrust: RealDeal, Chief Rum

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I see both sides of RealDeal's point...we did a mass reveal in the last game (upstairs downstairs) and it worked great, but that was kind of an odd game and I've never been in another game that did a mass reveal like that.

We need to get some conversation/dialogue going today so we have something to base a vote on tonight. I'm pretty slow at work now so I'm going to be going through to see who has not checked in and stuff like that...I'll be in here pretty much all day for anyone who wants to talk and try and formulate a game plan.

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Not sure if I'm going to be able to get on again before deadline so I'm going to be voting before I leave at 6:30...Barkeep was a villager in the past game I played with him and he played well, I know he's also an excellent wolf, so right now I'm leaning toward putting my vote on BK. If anyone wants to persuade me otherwise, you have an hour before I leave work...

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Someone needs to do something suspicious and wolfish...it's been very quiet today.

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Vote Barkeep49

Originally Posted by Antmeister

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Hmmm....this is always a difficult day to vote. No one has really said anything worthwhile and we have some no-shows, but that is normal from the few games that I have played. So this is going to be an interesting to watch.

Originally Posted by Antmeister

And what would your reason be for forcing a tie. On day 1, no one knows jack*bleep*, so by not trying to narrow down your suspects seems silly to me.

oliegirl, I had one less post than you on from the beginning to the end of day 1 and yet you tell me I was way too quiet. Not understanding that logic at all.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

oliegirl, I had one less post than you on from the beginning to the end of day 1 and yet you tell me I was way too quiet. Not understanding that logic at all.

Umm, I didn't say you were way too quiet...I said you were somewhat quiet until Hoops was cornered/killed and then you got more active. Two totally different statements...

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by path12

So pretend it's not you. Let's say he called me out as the other wolf. Are you telling me you would just accept the fact I must be good then? You act like you don't see the logic at all and that everyone is just bandwagoning on what hoops said without any other thought or consideration.

I think it's very possible you are not a wolf. But here is what is not in your favor:

1 -- You make sense as a choice for hoops to pick as a fellow wolf. That is a compliment, by the way.
2 -- You are one of maybe six or seven of us that don't have a role attached or assumed. The only logical roles that are still unknown are the seer/fool, cultist, or various types of wolves. Per Olie, you don't have a role, so you're not the seer/fool. You are as valid a choice in that mix as any of the rest of us -- myself included.
3 -- In a game of second guessing, you could actually get called out by hoops if he knew you were a wolf that would scan villager and likely get away with it for at least a couple of days, since we are prone to not believing things that are told to us (RealDeal's reveal in the 40K game he mentioned being a prime example). Hoops could out you with the thought that we would squabble for a couple days whether or not to lynch you while you extra chances to hit the Unholy Mark (which, if we think that BK is the Holy Mark, we've got to think someone is Unholy).
4 -- As a non-role, we don't risk killing the seer/fool.

I think those are all valid reasons for a vote -- they may be wrong, but they are not illogical.

When did Olie state that I had no role? if she did that, she saw me as a villager, based on her rules, granted that could mean I'm a wolf, but it also could mean I am a vanilla villager as I've stated.

Wy am I any more likely than the other 7?

Oh yeah, because HOPPS tols you so....really, get passed that.

If Hoops had pointed at you and said you wre the other wolf I'd have laughed in his face and trusted every damned thing you said. (within reasoning ) So if the roles were revered you can damn well KNOW I wouldn't be voting for YOU in this situation.

[RendeR]

And basically people are bandwagoning on what hoops said and Barkeep is the one driving the wagon. There is no excuse in the universe to put faith in hoopsguy's rantings especially when it comes to making a flat statement than someone is a wolf. He would NOT do that.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Umm, I didn't say you were way too quiet...I said you were somewhat quiet until Hoops was cornered/killed and then you got more active. Two totally different statements...

Then I guess you missed the part where I voted for hoopsguy after ntndeacon said he was a witness, while Render had voted for Arlington Colt.

[RendeR]

VOTE ANTMEISTER

[RendeR]

Sorry, I guess i never did update my vote earlier. I don't have anything specific on Ant, but I'm certainly not voting for myself and as he's the only other one with votes I'm going there.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Then I guess you missed the part where I voted for hoopsguy after ntndeacon said he was a witness, while Render had voted for Arlington Colt.

Nevermind this. I see they posted in the same minute. So it is very possible he didn't know the information when typing it. Yet I do admit, it did take him a while to unvote and vote for hoopsguy. However, I am not sure this implicates him or not. To be honest, Render is still an enigma to me.

[oliegirl]

When did Olie state that I had no role? if she did that, she saw me as a villager, based on her rules, granted that could mean I'm a wolf, but it also could mean I am a vanilla villager as I've stated.

I never said that, b/c I haven't scanned you...I've scanned BK, NTN and Antmeister, in that order...still need to put in my order for tomorrow's scan, but obviously I've got time.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I never said that, b/c I haven't scanned you...I've scanned BK, NTN and Antmeister, in that order...still need to put in my order for tomorrow's scan, but obviously I've got time.

I didn't think you had. Thank You Olie.

[jeheinz72]

Well it's only a slim shot I'll be back on pre-deadline. I'm pretty ok with the Ant vote, if people for whatever reason refuse to vote RendeR. We can tackle that tomorrow.

[RendeR]

wow, 11 in the thread and only 2 are dead...go WW!

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well it's only a slim shot I'll be back on pre-deadline. I'm pretty ok with the Ant vote, if people for whatever reason refuse to vote RendeR. We can tackle that tomorrow.

I am of the same mind. The only added bonus if we do manage to kill RendeR and he does come up innocent. we couuld hit the Unholy Mark. (Wouldn't that just be hilarious!)

[path12]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

I never said that, b/c I haven't scanned you...I've scanned BK, NTN and Antmeister, in that order...still need to put in my order for tomorrow's scan, but obviously I've got time.

Sorry, my bad. I thought you did. Believe I got Render and BK mixed up there.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Wy am I any more likely than the other 7?

Oh yeah, because HOPPS tols you so....really, get passed that.

I do very little that I'm told to do. The delightful yet focused Ms.Path would vouch for that.

Because you have votes on you that others don't? Also, as I said before, I think you're the most likely candidate of the 7 to have been looked at by the seer/fool. And since most scans are going to come up villager (especially considering the possible roles still not claimed) it may help them.

Personally, I'd rather vote RealDeal or jeheinz, but that's a wasted vote right now (though I might end up doing that anyway). I can see the cases for hoops picking each of them a bit clearer than yours.

[path12]

VOTE REALDEAL

[path12]

What the hell. I can always change it later, but I'm actually more curious about this one than Render.

[path12]

Just had to see if I could get the elusive quintuple dola.

[path12]

YES!

[Lorena]

Post hussie Too bad they don't count

[RendeR]

Dola whore =)

Honestly, Jeheins or Real Deal would make more sense to have been picked than me. I'm a prety well known entity currently and I'm also constantly under suspicion, cause I breathe I guess...

If someone else went with you on Real Deal or Jheinz I'd move there as well.

[RendeR]

I gotta learn to read more closely...I skimmed over DC's sig and I swore I reqd "pornograhic Dynasty"

[Barkeep49]

Here's the thing. Ant is leading the vote getting, yet there seems to be far less passion about him than about Render. So let's say we kill Ant, and he turns up human, as I feel that even some of the people voting for him feel is more likely to happen (though less likely than for Render), then what's going to happen tomorrow? Why the people who feel real strongly about Render are still going to try and kill Render. Someone pointed out that my distraction argument is self fufilling. And that's true to a certain extent; it's because I think killing Render is in the best interest of the village and I'm going to keep acting in what I see is the best interest of the village. Let's kill Render. We have a close vote now so we even gain voting information if there are multiple wolves out there. I think for the people on the fence that it's revealing how strongly several of us feel about killing Render, and how there is more apathy about killing Ant.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Post hussie Too bad they don't count

I was weirdly surprised at how happy I was to get over 1,000.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

VOTE REALDEAL

This is weak stuff. You're throwing your vote away. You have two compelling choices. This is, in essence, a wasted vote. Considering you're on the non-cleared list, this smells wolfish to me.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This is weak stuff. You're throwing your vote away. You have two compelling choices. This is, in essence, a wasted vote. Considering you're on the non-cleared list, this smells wolfish to me.

i would tend to agree...i am never a big fan of throw away votes...voting patterns mean too much later on...this always seems like someone trying to avoid being tracked.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This is weak stuff. You're throwing your vote away. You have two compelling choices. This is, in essence, a wasted vote. Considering you're on the non-cleared list, this smells wolfish to me.

Think what you want. I'm putting out an alternative to see if there is any interest in it, and I notice you've conveniently ignored the following post about how I can always change the vote. I've been stating my reasons all day to vote Render, but I have some real curiosity about the other two I mentioned.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

Think what you want. I'm putting out an alternative to see if there is any interest in it, and I notice you've conveniently ignored the following post about how I can always change the vote. I've been stating my reasons all day to vote Render, but I have some real curiosity about the other two I mentioned.

Fair enough. I didn't frankly see it that way but I'm at work and so I clearly didn't read as carefully as I should have.

[saldana]

anyone have a count?

[RendeR]

Antmeister: 5 (saldana, oliegirl, RealDeal, jeheinz72, RendeR)
RendeR: 4 (Barkeep49, ArlingtonColt, Antmeister, ntnDeacon)
RealDeal: 1 (path12)

[RendeR]

Interesting to see who moves off ant to save him, and prove my innocense too.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Interesting to see who moves off ant to save him, and prove my innocense too.

I'll say right now that if I end up moving my vote (what's the tiebreaker here?) it will be to you rather than Ant. I don't see what we learn from lynching Ant, and I can see the logic in finding out about you.

[path12]

OK, tiebreak is longest standing vote. Time to check posts.

[Barkeep49]

Path can we explore Real a little while we're both around, since the other conversation has died. What is triggering your alarm bells? I'm having a hard time with him since I have these vague impressions from games past, but no real memories of him. So it's not a clean slate like with a newer player, but it's not really informed either. So, to be honest, I've been kind of ignoring any thoughts of him as a wolf and assuming him to be a villager and considering his analysis as such. Obviously you've seen something different. I'm curious as to what.

[saldana]

i will save you the trouble...i was the first vote of the day

[Antmeister]

Oh geez. So it will possibly come down to Chief Rum for the tie or tie breaker and there is no telling if he will show or not.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Antmeister

Oh geez. So it will possibly come down to Chief Rum for the tie or tie breaker and there is no telling if he will show or not.

Yeah. It sucks.