WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection - EVIL WINS!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

On 6/4/12.

And you found out about EF on the morning of 6/5/12 (this morning)? That does not make sense.

[bhlloy]

It's a nice try Simbo. There's absolutely nothing you could possibly say to get me to change sides on this one and I think you will find everyone else thinks the same way. For things to go down the way you said they went down, the chances of that are absolutely astronomical. If by some one in a million shot you are telling the truth, this will be the most epic game ever.

If you all thought Narc was going to flip out last night, imagine when he gets on tonight. Hi Narc.

[bhlloy]

I'm also wondering given the nice back and forth you have going with EF if you aren't transformed and he's either the other transformed or the mummy. I suspect the latter, but we'll find out soon enough I guess

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Glad you're so confident, just remember you screwed the pooch big-time on this one.

Bh has played a great game so far

[EagleFan]

Oh well, I'm out. I'll keep following, good luck village.

For what it's worth:

I would go Simbo for the day three lynch and then have one of the seers scan Danny to make sure he is still good while the other should go after another player (based on how they have been plahing so far, though slam dunk votes won't really help with that analysis). The longer you can keep trust in Danny the better it will be for the village as you'll have a known member in the CoT.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not really. How many day two slam dunks are there? If I'm a wolf at that time all I do is vote and say nothing (except maybe a generic "great job seer".

I've been infected. Lynching me will prevent a night kill so I have no issue with being lynched.

Day 2 is usually either a slam dunk or a repeat of day 1, in my experience. And even though it's now 1-for-1, I still think the go-to Mummies/Transformed line is "I'm infected." Why would they choose to infect you when you were confirmed to be scanned in the thread?

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

And you found out about EF on the morning of 6/5/12 (this morning)? That does not make sense.

No, I sent the PM in this morning. I get the results after nightfall so I just found out about EF. I sent it in last night at that time.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It's a nice try Simbo. There's absolutely nothing you could possibly say to get me to change sides on this one and I think you will find everyone else thinks the same way. For things to go down the way you said they went down, the chances of that are absolutely astronomical. If by some one in a million shot you are telling the truth, this will be the most epic game ever.

If you all thought Narc was going to flip out last night, imagine when he gets on tonight. Hi Narc.

I think I'll find that too, I'm sad to say. I know I'm fighting a losing battle on this one.

[Zinto]

Eh, I wouldn't have either of the Professors scan Danny. One of the nurses can and then the doctor can cure him if he is infected. It just doesn't make sense for the professors to scan someone they know can be cured.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Danny

Bh has played a great game so far

I'm sure everyone but me, including the Mummy and Transformed, think so.

[Danny]

Zinto it was coming from a known baddie, ef is not posting to help the village,

[Zinto]

I know I just want to make sure we do not waste what maybe our last scan on you.

[Zinto]

And when I say maybe I mean may be.

[Danny]

I agree

[Danny]

Especially as im motivated to want to die at some point

[CrimsonFox]

so let me get this straight. Both seers are outed now? *facepalm*

[Narcizo]

Can people stop voting nightfall until we've had a proper chance to think this through? I don't have time now but really why is everyone in such a hurry to lock their votes up?

For one thing I think there's very little chance that EF is infected - Simbo might be. To keep both our seers alive another night we maybe should target the person we think most likely to be infected.

For another I want to read through Simbo and mau's reveals. I don't have much time now but I think everyone should take a deep breath and stop rushing to instant conclusions and voting nightfall on it.

[Narcizo]

Ahh! Ok. It's only mau who has voted nightfall.

Sorry about that then.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

so let me get this straight. Both seers are outed now? *facepalm*

On the plus side it's a pretty good game to have your seers outed. BH has already lasted one night. One seer is going to last at least one more night.

[CrimsonFox]

okay so EF is a bad guy but we don't know what kind?

[CrimsonFox]

I'm surprised we don't have 10 nightfalls again by now

[CrimsonFox]

bhlloy on a hotstreak. hotstreakarino. makin-some-copppppieeeeeees.

[CrimsonFox]

what's with people not knowing that nightfall locks in your votes. Autumn has been whining about that for half a year now that's why he made nightfall lockable in all his games. *hides from autumn*

[JAG]

I don't buy Simbo's story as mathematically it's unlikely. Once you remove Danny, bh, and themselves as scan possibilities, there was a 4/15 chance for the seer to scan a wolf last night. For the cultist, they would have had a 1/14 chance to scan the seer last night assuming their other two scans were still alive, or else 1/15 / 1/16 otherwise.

[CrimsonFox]

Raiders Army

kwhit, raiders, and britrock have been astoundingly quiet in all this. I'd like to hear their thoughts.

[CrimsonFox]

Going here for the slamdunk
Vote Eaglefan

but will see what happens

[Raiders Army]

As someone mentioned yesterday, I don't understand why the seers are outing baddies so early in the day. Great we got a few, but wouldn't it be better to establish some voting history? When/if both seers get whacked we're going to have very little to analyze. My two cents.

[Raiders Army]

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

As someone mentioned yesterday, I don't understand why the seers are outing baddies so early in the day. Great we got a few, but wouldn't it be better to establish some voting history? When/if both seers get whacked we're going to have very little to analyze. My two cents.

Yeah. We better hope we get two perma-bad guys out of this or this is not going to go well.

I still have my doubts about mau's story. I would have liked a bit more of a backstory out of him at the reveal rather than dribs and drabs later. Then again he does get the benefit of revealing first and the raw numbers being in his favour. Then again I doubt Simbo would claim bhlloy as n0 if he was making it up, nor EF for n2. Just makes his story instantly dodgy sounding.

At the moment I imagine lynching eagle and having the doctor cure Simbo is the way forward for today. I want to read the rules again for tomorrow to see what we potentially lose by keeping Simbo alive - standard theory in a potential Sorceror vs Seer is to let the wolves sort out the argument with a nk. This has the added bonus of the wolves likely to be doing the killing not knowing for sure which is which.

Vote EagleFan

[mauchow]

At this point in time with EF having more of a chance being an infected than Simbo. Simbo is fake revealing which isn't going to be an infected saying that. It's a transformed or the mummy.

I was early to jump on the EF wagon last night because I didn't think it would matter either way and the quick nightfall vote ruined that for me. I saw people unvoting nightfall yesterday so I assumed that I'd be able to as well. It doesn't matter to me a whole lot if we go EF tonight and Simbo tomorrow but honestly Simbo's fake reveal tells me we have something here.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It's a nice try Simbo. There's absolutely nothing you could possibly say to get me to change sides on this one and I think you will find everyone else thinks the same way. For things to go down the way you said they went down, the chances of that are absolutely astronomical. If by some one in a million shot you are telling the truth, this will be the most epic game ever.

If you all thought Narc was going to flip out last night, imagine when he gets on tonight. Hi Narc.

I don't know if it's one in a million. The chances of you hitting two wolves in a row are less than the cultist hitting one professor in two scans.

Is it unlikely? Definitely. Simbo came out with his reply really quickly though, and mau isn't inspiring super confidence in me. But it will be pretty hard to justify voting mau over simbo at this point.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't buy Simbo's story as mathematically it's unlikely. Once you remove Danny, bh, and themselves as scan possibilities, there was a 4/15 chance for the seer to scan a wolf last night. For the cultist, they would have had a 1/14 chance to scan the seer last night assuming their other two scans were still alive, or else 1/15 / 1/16 otherwise.

The cultist would have had two nights to scan for the professor, increasing the odds slightly. But the math is still in mau's favor here. I think the only thing that's nagging at me is the timing of his reveal.

[bhlloy]

I have to admit I have completely the other viewpoint on this one. I find the math that would have to be involved in Simbo's claim pretty incredible, and I think EF is very likely to be the mummy trying to save his team's NK tonight. Autumn was very clear about play within the spirit of the game and for the side you are currently on. EF being honest about being the infected and asking for a cure seems to go completely against that.

As for the Simbo math, there's also the math that he randomly hit another wolf yesterday AND it happened to be the exact same person that I ended up picking, which is another 1 in whatever shot. And you guys really think that Autumn gave him the other professor as his n0 negative scan? I'm sorry, I think he picked a story that he could prove without thinking how unlikely that whole sequence of events was. I think if we step back and look at this objectively, it's a bit of a no brainer and I'm a little confused that some strong players don't agree. I have some concerns about Mau's reveal but to go with Simbo's version seems insane

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't know if it's one in a million. The chances of you hitting two wolves in a row are less than the cultist hitting one professor in two scans.

I'd like to think there were great reads in both my scan choices thank you very much

If you can go back and find any reason that cultist Mau chooses to scan Simbo, I'll give you a cookie. I've looked and can't see any reason he'd choose to do that other than taking the 1 in 14/15/16 shot and getting really lucky

[mauchow]

I think the cultist is laughing his ass off somewhere.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

standard theory in a potential Sorceror vs Seer is to let the wolves sort out the argument with a nk. This has the added bonus of the wolves likely to be doing the killing not knowing for sure which is which.

I don't understand this Narc. Why on earth would the wolves kill one of them and clear it up for us?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The cultist would have had two nights to scan for the professor, increasing the odds slightly. But the math is still in mau's favor here. I think the only thing that's nagging at me is the timing of his reveal.

Just want to say my math should be correct. 18 players left, minus 2 scans, themselves, and bhlloy = 1/14, or 1/15 / 1/16 if their scans are dead or they got bhlloy but didn't reveal before he did or missed a scan.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

At this point in time with EF having more of a chance being an infected than Simbo.

I don't understand this logic. After bhlloy announced he was scanning EF, the wolves decided to infect EF, this guaranteeing our seers two more scans? I think it's a near certainty that EF is one of the starting wolves, probably the mummy since he wants us to vote for him and even self-voted.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Yeah. We better hope we get two perma-bad guys out of this or this is not going to go well.

I still have my doubts about mau's story. I would have liked a bit more of a backstory out of him at the reveal rather than dribs and drabs later. Then again he does get the benefit of revealing first and the raw numbers being in his favour. Then again I doubt Simbo would claim bhlloy as n0 if he was making it up, nor EF for n2. Just makes his story instantly dodgy sounding.

At the moment I imagine lynching eagle and having the doctor cure Simbo is the way forward for today. I want to read the rules again for tomorrow to see what we potentially lose by keeping Simbo alive - standard theory in a potential Sorceror vs Seer is to let the wolves sort out the argument with a nk. This has the added bonus of the wolves likely to be doing the killing not knowing for sure which is which.

Vote EagleFan

Incredibly good sense coming right here, just about everything I thought about in the car on the way home- though I really don't want a Doctor cure as I'm not infected, and would hate to see something that can help us go to waste.

Here's the rest of what I'd say:

You have your trusted Seer with a good result that he announced he was doing beforehand, reducing the probability that Wolves would select him for an infection.

Right after that, mau comes out and reveals me, and even tries to throw some suspicion on bhlloy.

I put out an immediate defense for every question you guys had-

Why would mau choose me? (Ill-fated teamup in the Dungeon... won't mention the fact that the only true WW game I've played here so far resulted in a shutout victory for my team... Or maybe I just did. )

When/why did I pick EagleFan? (I went and grabbed the post that tweaked me in like 14 seconds.)

Look back, I explicitly stated that I was worried about bhlloy revealing his random viewing after he outed himself as the Professor, because it might be a roled villager. Why would I say that? Because I got him, and as the other Professor, I thought it was possible that Autumn just gave us each other as a "the professors would know each other" thing, and I wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

The logic is all there, sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I don't understand this Narc. Why on earth would the wolves kill one of them and clear it up for us?

We're the only ones capable of finding them through non-lynching means. With all professors spoken for, the Cultist is no longer useful, I don't even think he counts for parity. It's a minor loss for them versus a large potential gain. And even if they're wrong, they'll then be right the next night.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

We're the only ones capable of finding them through non-lynching means. With all professors spoken for, the Cultist is no longer useful, I don't even think he counts for parity. It's a minor loss for them versus a large potential gain. And even if they're wrong, they'll then be right the next night.

dola (I actually searched for that for a long time to understand it )

Until the Mummy Hunter shows up, I should say.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

what's with people not knowing that nightfall locks in your votes. Autumn has been whining about that for half a year now that's why he made nightfall lockable in all his games. *hides from autumn*

[JAG]

Just to keep things organized with scans:

Not one of the starting Evils:
Danny
Pass (claimed good by two players claiming Professor)
bhlloy (uncontested Professor reveal)

Highly unlikely to be one of the starting evils
mauboy (99% chance to be professor or cultist)


The rest we'll sort out later.

[britrock88]

Nice, Autumn.

Why are we headed EF's way at this point? It does us little good to lynch an infected (taking EF at his word) when Simbo has offered us a story with far less than a 1 percent probability of being true.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't understand this logic. After bhlloy announced he was scanning EF, the wolves decided to infect EF, this guaranteeing our seers two more scans? I think it's a near certainty that EF is one of the starting wolves, probably the mummy since he wants us to vote for him and even self-voted.

To add to this, EF as mummy would know whether or not there was a successful infection last night. If he knows it was successful, he would be satisfied with a lynch because he knows he'll still be in the game and bhlloy will be night killed.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

Just want to say my math should be correct. 18 players left, minus 2 scans, themselves, and bhlloy = 1/14, or 1/15 / 1/16 if their scans are dead or they got bhlloy but didn't reveal before he did or missed a scan.

This is just for one night though right? I meant there would have been two chances to scan for the professor, not just one night as people had been hinting at, but either way the chances are pretty low and we can agree on that.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't understand this logic. After bhlloy announced he was scanning EF, the wolves decided to infect EF, this guaranteeing our seers two more scans? I think it's a near certainty that EF is one of the starting wolves, probably the mummy since he wants us to vote for him and even self-voted.

My point is that simbo is claiming my role. Ef is claiming to be infected. At worst simbo is a transformer or mummy trying to create problems for us. Ef may also be those things but somebody claiming my role as an infected is not gonna happen.

I also was on board w ef right away without waiting to see what simbo said and voted nightfall . That was dumb on my part and I'm not sure why I thought it could be undone. Nothing in rules.

Again I've got no issues with waiting until tomorrow for simbo getting lynched but I believe now that simbo is the play for today.

[Danny]

Cooked up the rest of the spicy Italian sausage for breakfast, oh yeah!

[Danny]

So we know Mau is either the cultist or a seer. Simbo is either the mummy, infected or transformed or the seer. In general there is more reward in lynching Simbo and the pure mathematical odds are against him. That said, his reveal was better than Maus actually and why would he have made up EF. Still its difficult to vote against the odds.

Overall, it may be best to make the wolves decide for us.

[Narcizo]

Why is anyone paying any attention to what Eagle says? If he were infected he sure as hell shouldn't be claiming it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Why is anyone paying any attention to what Eagle says? If he were infected he sure as hell shouldn't be claiming it.

I've just been skimming, but isn't there a chance bhlloy could be infected?

[bhlloy]

No, professors can't be infected

And yes, I find it very unlikely that EF is infected. If he was transformed he'd be trying to avoid drawing votes. Which leads me to believe he's the mummy