Werewolf CXXIX - Doctor Who and his Trusty Yak - WOLVES WIN

[Autumn]

A lot of action in Medieval town that night!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I really think we need to get a wolf today. Losing two more villagers is going to put us in a giant hole. I am not totally against Autumn today and to be honest I wouldn't be against Jag today since he hasn't done as much analysis that I usually expect out of him. I know it maybe rough to try and get him to be spot on or super active every game but from the few games I have played it is what I expect.

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am not really gung-ho on going for Autumn or Lathum tonight since they are one of the few players that have been consistently talking through out the game.

Originally Posted by Zinto

I have had a good feeling about Autumn this whole game and I am not going to jump off that at this point.

I find this progression of posts where Zinto goes from being OK with voting for Autumn to claiming he has felt good about him the whole game interesting

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Guys?

You know you're supposed to vote for the WOLVES, right?

i always used to have the same problem in my games...no one understood the rules.

[EagleFan]

Think I'm going to sleep on it and look at it again in the morning. There are good valid reasons to vote for any of us remaining uncleared players.

[thejuggler3]

Originally Posted by Autumn

A lot of action in Medieval town that night!

Originally Posted by Lathum

Maybe it is just me, but this post screams at me as a wolf laying the groundwork for why they haven't been night killed.

Lathum, your post really confuses me. I can only assume one of two things: 1) you are accusing me of not being the warlord, in which case I would be mighty interested in your basis or 2) you are randomly sowing discontent for people who are cleared, which concerns me greatly.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by thejuggler3

Lathum, your post really confuses me. I can only assume one of two things: 1) you are accusing me of not being the warlord, in which case I would be mighty interested in your basis or 2) you are randomly sowing discontent for people who are cleared, which concerns me greatly.

tbh I had no idea you revealed as the warlord...

was that during the chaos of the deadline the other night?

[thejuggler3]

Originally Posted by Lathum

tbh I had no idea you revealed as the warlord...

was that during the chaos of the deadline the other night?

Yepper, right before Autumn.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by thejuggler3

Yepper, right before Autumn.

ok, my bad.

the deadline is at 6 my time. I get home from work around 5:30 and play with my son for a while before we have dinner at six. If I am on near the deadline I am usually getting the stink eye from my wife and am usually just glossing over posts so I can get through them fast as possible.

[Chief Rum]

Bummer. I underestimated how busy I would be at work this week. Then I check in earlier today, but don't post, wanting to hold off until later. Then I forget I never actually posted and just remember now. And then I find out I am dead anyway.

Well, shoot. Sorry, guys. Good luck, villagers!

[Darth Vilus]

Vote Zinto

[JAG]

Vote tyketime

[mauchow]

vote eaglefan

[JAG]

Autumn, depending on your time availability today, I would try to take a look at likely and unlikely pairings of wolves among the six unknowns, with the idea that there are four wolves among them (if there are five, it should make things even easier, so we may as well be as accurate as possible). I have my own conclusions, but after yesterday I would prefer to have a second opinion (and I feel people would be more willing to trust you).

[EagleFan]

We're in decent shape if there are 5 in the uncleared but we lose if we don't hit the brutal last. Regardless of where they are, if there are 5 we need to avoid being led by them towards the brutal today.

What screws us is if one is scan cleared and if there was a conversion which is a very real possibility.

[JAG]

DV, at what point will you be offline til after deadline? In the case that you're a villager and there are five wolves, the scanned / otherwise cleared should come to a target and vote as a block along with the remaining villagers, otherwise we risk splitting the vote to where the wolves can simply vote as a block and win with the lynch. Even though I believe four is more likely at this point, for voting purposes we should take the most conservative approach and assume there are five.

[Autumn]

I'll be available more early in the day than later on, JAG.

I'm curious if you can explain the vote in the Ancient era which got Mckerney killed. Do you know if you had an unusual effect on the vote count on Mckerney?

I haven't done the level of analysis you've done. I know that with Lathum's last minute moves the other night it seems unlikely he and Darth are both wolves.

[Autumn]

Paranoid theory of this moment. I wonder if Darth and Zinto are both wolves and worked out their medieval citizen story together.

I also wonder why we have so many medieval citizens.

[Coffee Warlord]

We are in THE FUTURE!

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Paranoid theory of this moment. I wonder if Darth and Zinto are both wolves and worked out their medieval citizen story together.

I also wonder why we have so many medieval citizens.

If DV is a wolf, then Lathum and EF would look better IMO and Zinto would look worse, though his vote on Zinto the past couple days is somewhat puzzling, no? How good do you feel about that theory of trusting EF + Lathum when they both started the vote on J23 yesterday though? I thought Lathum's post re: Zinto yesterday looked like he was trying to capitalize on the suspicion on Zinto posted by you and DV yesterday and last night.

[Autumn]

1 Autumn - chief rum (537)
3 thejuggler - darth vilus (506), tyketime (530), dubb (539
1 eaglefan - J23 (497)
4 mckerney - JAG (570), autumn (584), zinto (598), dwardzala (613)
5 darth vilus - eaglefan (580), mauboy (621), thejuggler (603), mckerney (627), lathum (629)

The only day of voting that might actually mean something, if Darth's a wolf.

[Autumn]

Green is scanned, light blue is uncontested role reveal.

Night kills is another subject. The wolves are whittling down the scanned people,despite the fact that there's a chance the scanned are cunnings. If one of the scanned people was cunning, this would make it mcuh easier to find the cunning once we get around to that.

This suggests that there is no cunning scanned, or if there is, that they're much more worried about not whittling down the uncleared list.

It made sense to not bother killing me last night since they interfered with my scan. But why not kill JAG? Kill a supposedly cleared villager, and one that has a chance of defending me. Even if they have no intent to kill me, which at this point may be the case as they've nearly run out of time to try, JAG would still be a better target than Chief Rum, one would think.

[Autumn]

I'm not sure what to make of lathum's last minute moves the other night. He moved to Mckerney to put him up by two and then back to darth to put darth up by one. He claims he was trying to break a tie both times. The movement was so fast that it's possible people weren't sure what the vote count was, and Lathum has been clear that he's busy at deadline.

If Darth is a villager, Lathum's making some last minute moves which will look bad on him either way, but he will say he was breaking a tie, like he did the first night. If Darth is a wolf and Lathum a wolf, I wouldn't think Lathum makes that move back to Darth. He could easily claim he wasn't around or didn't know the vote count.

[Autumn]

Worst case scenario, we have 5 wolves and I've scanned two cunnings. Dwardzala is the Cyberman, Mauboy is the Master. There are three wolves out of:

Lathum
EagleFan
Tyketime
Dubb
Zinto
Darth Vilus

Well I suppose worst case scenario might even be four wolves, with two cunning scanned, since that would give us even less of a shot today.

I am going to ignore the possibility of conversion. If there was a conversion without it replacing a night kill we're just done. Just thinking out loud here.

[JAG]

The other unknown who have received votes:

D1: Tyke and EF
D4 pre reveal: EF and Lathum
D5: Zinto and tyke

[JAG]

And EF D5 at one point during J23's vote shifting.

[Autumn]

Right now we have four people claiming Medieval roles, I believe. Juggler claims to be the Warlord. Darth claims to be able to follow people, Zinto claims he can search for roles, Dubb claims to have a slut power.

Assuming five wolves, 8 villager roles, that leaves 8 villager citizens, in five eras. It would be odd for there to be more than three villagers in one era then (including the Warlord). Even if there were only three wolves, you would expect a max of 2 villagers plus the Warlord.

So either there was a very uneven distribution of eras or one or more of those four is lying.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

If DV is a wolf, then Lathum and EF would look better IMO and Zinto would look worse, though his vote on Zinto the past couple days is somewhat puzzling, no? How good do you feel about that theory of trusting EF + Lathum when they both started the vote on J23 yesterday though? I thought Lathum's post re: Zinto yesterday looked like he was trying to capitalize on the suspicion on Zinto posted by you and DV yesterday and last night.

At this point I think it's much more likely EF and Lathum are both wolves, and not Darth.

[EagleFan]

Very little time as I am about to head into a meeting and I have a migraine like you wouldn't believe.

The DV/Zinto connection theory makes me wonder about following DV onto Zinto due to the possibility that we could lose with a lynch of the brutal if we are sitting 6-5.

There is one more post that I am curious about. I could easily be missing it but I don't see anywhere that DV says he will be out until after the deadline today.

[Autumn]

Juggler has claimed a role we fully expect to be in the game, so I'm going to believe him at this point.

Zinto has corroborated Darth's story. So either they're both telling the truth, one is lying but has a wolf power similar to what they claim, or they're both wolves.

Dubb was the last reveal, and uncorroborated, so somewhat suspect. Occam's Razor tells us to assume he's the only lying if one is.

Am I missing any medieval citizens? Did anyone die and reveal as medieval (CW it would really help me out if you'd put that in the first page )

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Autumn

J
Am I missing any medieval citizens? Did anyone die and reveal as medieval (CW it would really help me out if you'd put that in the first page )

It's nothing but problems with you. :P

Gimme a minute, I'll put that on the death list.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

At this point I think it's much more likely EF and Lathum are both wolves, and not Darth.

Agreed. Also Warlord is an Ancient role, not medieval.

[Autumn]

I think there are several possibilities, but I want to vote together with JAG, so I'll follow him for now.

VOTE TYKETIME

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Agreed. Also Warlord is an Ancient role, not medieval.

That just occurred to me as I was siting here and was going to double check. Hmm.

[Autumn]

All right, so the Count was the medieval role, and he just died. So, still seems odd to have three other villagers claiming medieval roles. I'll wait and get a count from CW's work to see if that's true though.

[Coffee Warlord]

Death list has eras where applicable. Where's my FUTURE! cookie?

I'd also like to note Chief Rum was the Tycoon, (as reported in the result post from last night), NOT the Count as originally noted in my death list. Saldana was the Count. My bad there.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

At this point I think it's much more likely EF and Lathum are both wolves, and not Darth.

Another point to consider, and it could be a red herring or Lathum trying to be tricky. Presumably they could have blocked your scan the night before last but didn't. The expectation was that you would scan Lathum. Last night they did block you, after you posted your list of suspects before night orders were proceesed. Does that bit of info suggest anything?

[Autumn]

Thanks, CW, here's where cookies will lead you in the future

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Another point to consider, and it could be a red herring or Lathum trying to be tricky. Presumably they could have blocked your scan the night before last but didn't. The expectation was that you would scan Lathum. Last night they did block you, after you posted your list of suspects before night orders were proceesed. Does that bit of info suggest anything?

It definitely feels like Lathum has been trying to draw a scan, yes. and yes, the heat went away from him yesterday, it seemed likely I was going to scan elsewhere. Though I don't know about their block mechanic, maybe it had to be unlocked or something.

[Autumn]

So for the dead we have

1 Ancient
2 Industrial
1 Modern
2 Future.

For the living we have claims of:
1 Future
3 Medieval
1 Modern

Not as off-base as it seemed.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It definitely feels like Lathum has been trying to draw a scan, yes. and yes, the heat went away from him yesterday, it seemed likely I was going to scan elsewhere. Though I don't know about their block mechanic, maybe it had to be unlocked or something.

Am I supposed to say I DONT want to be scanned? That would go over like a fart in church.

[dwardzala]

I'm playing follow the Doctor:

Vote Tyketime
Time Future

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by JAG

3-5 wolves (3 if cunning has been scanned, 4 if cunning not scanned or if cunning scanned + neither EF/DV are wolves, 5 if not + neither EF/DV are wolves) or 2-4 wolves if there were only 4 wolves to begin (which is where I'm currently leaning)

J23
Zinto
dubb
tyketime
Lathum

JAG - I've come to appreciate your analysis. And while you picked the wrong one to focus on yesterday, I like your strategy based on the percentages. But here's the problem - we are out of time. If we don't get this right today, we'll be down to our last out.

I do think Darth is a wolf, but I don't see him gaining a lot of attention today. I haven't gotten a great vibe about dubb, so that leaves me with two choices: Lathum or Zinto.

I was already suspicious of Lathum, and would gladly entertain switching my vote to him. But instead of putting up a 4th candidate, I have to hope you'll reconsider. If not, I will wish the remainder of you good luck tomorrow.

So while this is partly defensive, it's also a plea for you to change your mind. We can't afford for you not to...

TIME FUTURE
VOTE ZINTO

[EagleFan]

One quick post. I haven't seen it answered yet. How does jag know that Darth won't be around for the deadline tonight? I still don't see it mentioned in thread and jag mentions it like a fact in his earlier post.

Maybe I am missing something?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by JAG

DV, at what point will you be offline til after deadline?

This is what I was asking about, from this morning.

[EagleFan]

Darth's only post today is to vote Zinto.

[EagleFan]

Gotta grab lunch and may be offline most of the afternoon. Will check back in later.

[JAG]

Quoted for EF.

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

I'm the Darth! I do as i please! JK I know i know, I'll vote again tomorrow if I'm still alive. I just won't be around when the Night results come in

[dubb93]

Am I the only one who thinks we should go back to Medieval considering the number of role claims we have in that era? To be fair without digging I'm not 100% sure of everyones claimed role so I'm not sure how powerful they are but I know I have a shot of blocking a NK in that era with my ability.

[JAG]

In my opinion no, but I don't want to elaborate at this time.

Time Future

[mauchow]

The lack of anybody leaning towards eagle fan is concerning to me.