Werewolf XXXIII: To Crown a King 2 (Game Over)

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

it is good that the assasins have positive points. it gives them that much further to go to cause a revolt

But also likely makes it far more likely they voted for qwik, which is the largest group to sift through.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Don't forget the clever assassin. With no kill in night 1 or night 2, they might have (particularly on night 2) elected to plant evidence on Qwikshot. If that's the case, the next point total could look very different.

I bought this point up about 3 pages ago and think it at least bears watching

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, do the points speak in terms of the "Clever Assassin" planting evidence?

We learned that Qwikshot was an assassin and we saw point totals that suggested strongly that we had made positive actions.

Does the planted evidence impact point totals around the assassin as well, or just how they are revealed on death?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, do the points speak in terms of the "Clever Assassin" planting evidence?

We learned that Qwikshot was an assassin and we saw point totals that suggested strongly that we had made positive actions.

Does the planted evidence impact point totals around the assassin as well, or just how they are revealed on death?

Per the rules

Clever Assassin
Once per game this Assassin, instead of killing a target, may instead plant evidence on the victim, so if that victim is later killed he will appear to have been an assassin. Point totals will act as though the Noble was an assassin for one day, before being reflected properly the next day.

[hoopsguy]

I'm teh sux at cut/paste from spreadsheets, apparently:

NTN:
Day 1 Jail: Bullet
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute
Day 2 Jail: Real (1st)
Day 3 Execute?: No Execute
Day 3 Jail: Grey

Anxiety:
Day 1 Jail: Blade (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: Grey (1st)
Day 3 Execute? No Execute
Day 3 Jail: Grey (1st)

Qwikshot:
Day 1 Jail: Bullet
Day 2 Execute?: -
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? -
Day 3 Jail: -

LSG
Day 1 Jail: Cronin
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: Qwik
Day 3 Execute? Execute (1st)
Day 3 Jail: Grey

Bullet
Day 1 Jail: Cronin (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: -
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? -
Day 3 Jail: -

Bek/SnDvls
Day 1 Jail: -
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute
Day 2 Jail: Cronin
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail: King

Hoops
Day 1 Jail: Bullet (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: Qwik
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail:LSG (1st)

Grey
Day 1 Jail: Fouts (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute
Day 2 Jail: Qwik
Day 3 Execute? -
Day 3 Jail: -

Cronin
Day 1 Jail: Bullet
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: Fouts (1st)
Day 3 Execute? No Execute
Day 3 Jail: LSG

RealDeal
Day 1 Jail: Lathum (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute
Day 2 Jail: King
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail: King

Blade
Day 1 Jail: Bullet
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: Cronin (1st)
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail: Cronin (1st)

Fouts
Day 1 Jail: Qwik (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute
Day 2 Jail: Qwik
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail: Grey

King
Day 1 Jail: -
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: Lathum (1st)
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail: Grey

Lathum
Day 1 Jail: Mr W (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: King (1st)
Day 3 Execute? No Execute
Day 3 Jail: King (1st)

Chief Rum
Day 1 Jail: Hoops (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: No Execute
Day 2 Jail: Qwik
Day 3 Execute? No Execute
Day 3 Jail: LSG

Dodger/???
Day 1 Jail: NTN (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: -
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? -
Day 3 Jail: -

BrianD
Day 1 Jail: Chief (1st)
Day 2 Execute?: Free (1st)
Day 2 Jail: Qwik (1st)
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail: LSG

WVUFAN
Day 1 Jail: Blade
Day 2 Execute?: -
Day 2 Jail: -
Day 3 Execute? -
Day 3 Jail: -

MrWednesday
Day 1 Jail: Blade
Day 2 Execute?: Free
Day 2 Jail: King
Day 3 Execute? Execute
Day 3 Jail: LSG

[hoopsguy]

Planting evidence would have been a very strong move for the assassins. Qwik didn't give much information out in his posts for his teammates to learn about him.

One way or another, we'll find out soon enough.

[ntndeacon]

It is possible that Qwik had a role. Just to remind you. he could be the Vengeful Assasin..(the spitting made me wonder) or the Tricky Assasin and we would not know the difference. We will probably find out tomorrow whether he was Vengeful, if one of us ends up with a dart in us. (I am assuming here that we would not know whether he blew a dart before then since the corpse is seen to be a normal assasin)

[hoopsguy]

I'm working with a few assumptions here on points:
- I don't know who any faction leaders are
- I don't know who cast the lynch votes on anything, since leaders count double
- DC got -.5 for Day 2, but didn't lose the 1/2 point today while being replaced
- don't know stacked points for "Free votes" with Bullet, although I'm assigning one to Brian for speaking out for him

NTN: 0
Anxiety: +0.5
Qwikshot: +1 (no votes either day not helping his teams cause)
LSG: +4 (oops on voting her first)
Bullet: -0.5 (no votes today)
Bek/SnDvls: 1
Hoops: 1.5
Grey: 0.5
Cronin: 0.5
RealDeal: 1
Blade: 1.5
Fouts: 1.5
King: 1.5
Lathum: 0.5
Rum: 0.5
Dodger: -0.5
BrianD: 3.5
WVUFAN: -1 (no votes hurting him, would be +1 if he is assassin)
MrW: 1.5

Total Points: 19.5
There are still 4 more "tipping point votes" (-1 on Bullet Day 1, +1 Qwik Day 2, +4 Qwik Day 3)

[hoopsguy]

Faction A 9.5
Faction B 4.5
Faction C 2.5
Faction D 6
Faction E 4.5

There are a total of 27 points, which means that 3.5 more points were accumulated over the first 3 days beyond the "tipping point" votes. I would assume these were votes to jail leaders and votes from Brian's teammates to free Bullet.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum and/or NT - I'm trying to figure out if the Faction # here matches up with the faction number I got in my PM at the start of the game. Knowing what you do about your own factions, do you think that the PM/Listed Faction correspond?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum and/or NT - I'm trying to figure out if the Faction # here matches up with the faction number I got in my PM at the start of the game. Knowing what you do about your own factions, do you think that the PM/Listed Faction correspond?

Thats cool, dont ask blade...

[hoopsguy]

Please answer - they were the guys in the thread at the time.

[Lathum]

I think there are 4 factions of 4 and 3 assasins. I am confident of 2 of my faction members as of right now. I have a theory but right now I need to see if the point totals change tomorrow, if they stay the same through the next day or so I have a theory that I need to keep private for now.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, are you comfortable matching up the PM you received with your faction with a faction listed on here?

I'm not asking if you are in Faction C or anything like that. Just if the points for the Faction listed here come close to what you think your faction listed in the PM should have.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum and/or NT - I'm trying to figure out if the Faction # here matches up with the faction number I got in my PM at the start of the game. Knowing what you do about your own factions, do you think that the PM/Listed Faction correspond?

Yes I do. If you were told faction A then the Faction A shown is your points...etc.

I do not think we would be fooled in that manner by BarKeep.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, are you comfortable matching up the PM you received with your faction with a faction listed on here?

I'm not asking if you are in Faction C or anything like that. Just if the points for the Faction listed here come close to what you think your faction listed in the PM should have.

Mine does not ad up yet but that is cuz I do not know the 4th member of our faction (if there is 4 as we think) plus ifigure that some of those points could be for voting for faction leaders etc.

[ntndeacon]

By the Way Hoops, did you also not assumethat Qwik was an Assasin? that wuld change his point total.

[hoopsguy]

Every assassin execution vote today would have been +1. I would be surprised if multiple assassins did this today, given that we did not have an overwhelming majority of players vote for the execution (9-5, with some no votes).

People with either No Vote or No Execute today:
NTN, Anxiety, Qwik (now dead) Bullet, Grey, Cronin, Lathum, Chief, DC (out of game), WVUFAN

[Lathum]

hoops, I'm not really sure what you are asking me. Do you want me to use your assumed point totals in combination with who I know to be in my COT to see if you are on track?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

By the Way Hoops, did you also not assumethat Qwik was an Assasin? that wuld change his point total.

I did assume he was an assassin. +.5 per day of not voting is the penalty for assassins. The nobles get -.5 per day of not voting.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, no I don't want you to use my assumed point totals because they only capture about 60% of the total points.

However, if the assumed point totals for you show 6 points for your faction and you got a PM saying you were Faction C (2.5 points) then that would seem odd at this point ...

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I did assume he was an assassin. +.5 per day of not voting is the penalty for assassins. The nobles get -.5 per day of not voting.

I got that. idont see any other points that he would have gotten (am assuming for the sake of arguement that Bullet is a noble so he gets 0 for jailing him)

[Lathum]

my factions point total seems a little off but my theory may tie into that, I just need to be alive tomorrow to test it out.

[Blade6119]

Well hoops, im not much help on this question. I know myself and my faction leader, and only have a small list of suspects for my team members. Working under almost any condition though, the faction total seems a bit low to me for my assumed group.

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, what assumptions (exactly) went into that point total? I'm trying to figure out where missing points for my faction might be, exactly.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Hmm... I think this whole tolerated faction thing has some interesting nuances. Among them is that, it's not entirely in my interest to cooperate fully, to the extent that I could help out a rival faction.

[hoopsguy]

Here is a little closer look at the people who did not vote to Execute on Qwikshot today. Note that this analysis will suck quite a bit if it turns out that there was evidence planted ...

I'm going to say that none of these people are aligned with my faction. I may or may not be telling the truth on that point.

NTN
Day 1: late vote for Bullet when tied with Blade, possible tipping vote on this day.
Day 2: did not vote to free Bulletsponge. Voted for RealDeal when there was opportunity to be tipping vote on Qwik.
Day 3: did not vote to execute Qwik. Cast vote for Grey. This followed instructions of Blade's PM that he posted on the board today.

Summary: not aligned with BrianD/Bullet. Likely aligned with Blade, based on Day 1 and Day 3.

Anxiety
Day 1: listed as first vote on Blade
Day 2: pretty weird late vote on Grey, voted to free Bullet
Day 3: returned to voting for Grey

Summary: having a very hard time placing him in this game. His Day 3 vote also followed Blade's public PM.

Bullet
Day 1: voted for Cronin after somewhat suspicious statement
Day 2: in lockup, cleared by BrianD
Day 3: did not exercise his vote as fairly cleared noble

Summary: affiliation with BrianD buys him a decent amount of leeway. No chance of being turned Night 2 while in jail by himself.

Grey
Day 1: voted for Fouts, who "never trusts him". Late vote, but could potentially have tied it up between Bullet/Blade who were 4-3 at time.
Day 2: casts pretty significant vote on Qwik, some chance he is tipping vote here. Does not vote to free Bullet.
Day 3: Didn't get his vote in despite being in the middle of the vote on this day.

Summary: Based on Day 2 vote I don't think he is an assassin, but missing votes is a pretty damaging habit. Forgot to subtract the -.5 from his score for missing today so he should be listed at 0 for the game. Cronin did not want him jailed today.

Cronin
Day 1: 2nd vote on Bullet. Fairly strong "faction tell" that was started by others early in day.
Day 2: Fairly early vote for Fouts, voted to free Bullet
Day 3: Cast vote for LSG in close race with King and Grey. Hard for me to be too critical of being on same person as me here and Day 1.

Summary: I think I have him lined up with a faction and do not consider him a high likelihood assassin, unless he was converted Night 2. Spoke out on behalf of Grey today. Dodgerchick posted a code in response to his request on Day 2.

Lathum
Day 1: Voted for Mr W in middle of Blade/Bullet runoff
Day 2: First to vote for King, voted to free Bullet
Day 3: Very early vote for King, did not vote to free Bullet

Summary: SnDvls initially followed his votes on Day 3, but having a very tough time placing Lathum so far this game.

Chief
Day 1: voted for me
Day 2: 2nd person on Qwikshot, did not vote to free Bullet
Day 3: voted for LSG near the end, outside chance of being tipping vote.

Summary: another person who followed Blade's PM for vote Grey/no execute. However, he moved his vote to LSG after Cronin spoke up for Grey. Just above average trust, laregly for Qwikshot vote on Day 2.

DC (out of game)
Day 1: voted for NTN, gave faction tell
Day 2: dropped out of game after apparent miscommunication with Cronin

Summary: a bit above average trust for replacement player

WVUFAN
Day 1: voted for Blade, was 4th man on him at the time (4-2 margin)
Day 2: no vote
Day 3: no vote

Summary: is raging against the machine over the new WW board. I would like to see him re-join the game currently in progress

[hoopsguy]

MrW, do you know who your tolerated faction is? I honestly have no idea about mine. Not sure if this is leader information or what.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Hmm... I think this whole tolerated faction thing has some interesting nuances. Among them is that, it's not entirely in my interest to cooperate fully, to the extent that I could help out a rival faction.

This is why i think its smart for the badguys to hide in plain sight, as well as why im having troubles locating the rest of my faction. No one wants to reveal information that would really help the whole village find the bad guys, as to do so you must severely hinder your own faction's ability to crown you faction leader. Its frustrating, to say the least, but also quite fun to try and work around.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

hoops, what assumptions (exactly) went into that point total? I'm trying to figure out where missing points for my faction might be, exactly.

I listed my assumptions at the top of Post #858. So I know there are points that are not captured because I don't know who has the "lynch" vote on Day 1 JAIL, DAY 2 JAIL, and DAY 3 EXECUTE. Along with a few other 1/2 points here and there, most likely ...

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrW, do you know who your tolerated faction is? I honestly have no idea about mine. Not sure if this is leader information or what.

Do all factions have one "sister" faction? I was not aware of this, and what does it mean?

[Lathum]

let's also not forget that factions may have been comprimised early. There is a chance a faction message was intercepted and considering the lack of night kills there is a chance there was a fast talking noble converted who may have betrayed his factions codes.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, exactly right. I suspect that the fast talking noble would accumulate points for the assassins team at this point.

[Lathum]

hoops, i was thinking of it more from the point of view that people may think someone is in their faction who really isn't. thus sleeping with the enemy.

[hoopsguy]

If someone thinks that their faction should have more points than they show here, it would be a decent idea to speak up on that topic. I think that is the way that we narrow in on a fast-talking noble who has been turned.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I listed my assumptions at the top of Post #858. So I know there are points that are not captured because I don't know who has the "lynch" vote on Day 1 JAIL, DAY 2 JAIL, and DAY 3 EXECUTE. Along with a few other 1/2 points here and there, most likely ...

What do you mean you don't know who has the lynch vote? If the execute vote was 9-5, wouldn't the 6th vote (SnDvls) get the lynch points?

[Fouts]

Well, I went back and searched the posts, trying to find the 4th member of my faction. Just can't do it. Either they messed up the clues or never posted.

Also, anyone find it odd that the assassins have a positive number? Does that mean a couple of them slipped in a vote on Qwik?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrW, do you know who your tolerated faction is? I honestly have no idea about mine. Not sure if this is leader information or what.

I'm not aware of the arrangement of tolerated factions, which is to say that I do not know which factions are "good" and which factions are "sort of in between". (The assassins are "bad", obviously. )

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think the main one I was after was, you are counting points both for jail/execute qwikshot as an assassin, AND jail/free bulletsponge as a noble.

I'm going to hazard a guess (without doing the actual math) that the points are completely out of whack unless bulletsponge is a noble. (If he is a noble, there are a lot of bonus point implications that I will not be discussion.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Fouts

What do you mean you don't know who has the lynch vote? If the execute vote was 9-5, wouldn't the 6th vote (SnDvls) get the lynch points?

I think hoops is talking about the faction leaders' votes counting double.

hoops, do note that only applies to jail/free votes. If nobody voted to free qwikshot, then we actually can exactly identify the lynch vote.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, exactly right. I suspect that the fast talking noble would accumulate points for the assassins team at this point.

I think the fast-talking noble accumulates points according to his/her affiliation at the time the vote is cast. That is, all votes on day 1 are "straight", but there is the possibility of a changed allegiance thereafter.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

It is possible that Qwik had a role. Just to remind you. he could be the Vengeful Assasin..(the spitting made me wonder) or the Tricky Assasin and we would not know the difference. We will probably find out tomorrow whether he was Vengeful, if one of us ends up with a dart in us. (I am assuming here that we would not know whether he blew a dart before then since the corpse is seen to be a normal assasin)

I think when "Vengeful" uses their role (if they use their role), their target will know that they are poisoned. We've seen these delayed actions in past games. I've already speculated about "Tricky", although we can be fairly certain that if Qwik was Tricky, he never used his ability. In consequence, it's actually not particularly important, since neither impacts point totals. You can speculate about it if you want, but I'm not going to worry.

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

By the Way Hoops, did you also not assumethat Qwik was an Assasin? that wuld change his point total.

Regardless of whether Qwik is an assassin or is framed, according to the rules, the current point totals are reflective of him being an assassin. Therefore, it's entirely correct for hoops to proceed on that basis.

[Chief Rum]

I'm a bit disappointed in Blade right now, because it was his reasoning on Qwik that had me No Execute on him. If Blade stayed No Execute that would be one thing, but he switched to Execute. That lowers Blade in my estimation considerably.

I think it's already been settled that there are four players per faction (not counting the assassins, I would guess, who probably started with three), but just wanted to say it seemed clear to me that it's four. So anyone thinking they only have three faction members (who aren't assassins) should probably keep a better eye out for clues.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm a bit disappointed in Blade right now, because it was his reasoning on Qwik that had me No Execute on him. If Blade stayed No Execute that would be one thing, but he switched to Execute. That lowers Blade in my estimation considerably.

My reasoning? My faction leader said vote to free, and to jail grey. I came out with this info to allow my group to being our own COT. I ended up voting against both ideas. I never said qwik was good, or that you should vote no execute.

Please explain what reasoning mislead you...was it when i said its possible he was my teamate. I can see that maybe taken as a hint, even though it wasnt. Im sorry you are in a bad spot, but i think your actions speak as loudly as mine. We can address that in due time though.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

My reasoning? My faction leader said vote to free, and to jail grey. I came out with this info to allow my group to being our own COT. I ended up voting against both ideas. I never said qwik was good, or that you should vote no execute.

Please explain what reasoning mislead you...was it when i said its possible he was my teamate. I can see that maybe taken as a hint, even though it wasnt. Im sorry you are in a bad spot, but i think your actions speak as loudly as mine. We can address that in due time though.

That was exactly it. You said you thought he was your teammate, and asked us to hold off on executing him. So I did. I'm not concerned about "my actions" because I know I'm about as noble as you can get in this game. I have tons of doubts about you, though.

[Barkeep49]

The morning comes and when it comes two nobles are not to be found. Two parties are sent.

The one from Blade's room reports that they found his corpse. He seems to have been killed by a few wounds, likely made by a knife of some sort. Plans are also found clearly indicating what Blade would do were he crowned king. The plans are detailed and complete. It should come as no surprise to anyone that knew him that Blade was a Faction Leader.

Meanwhile the report from Hoop's room reports equally grim news. His body has been found, dead, collapsed on his bed. There are no signs of a wound, but all agree hoops was a healthy and fit guy. There is no way that his death was natural.

The shocked populace mourns the loss of two good nobles. So much so that the points needed to crown a king drops to 17. However, there is uncertainty created and so it also becomes easier for a Revolt to occur as the Assassins now need only negative 15 points.

I realized that I had failed to take into account a key difference between this game and the others I had run when I set the points total, thus the changing of the points needed. Consider these the numbers that it should have started at last night.

[hoopsguy]

Good luck guys. I'll be reading along, waiting to see my faction leader crowned next week.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm a bit disappointed in Blade right now, because it was his reasoning on Qwik that had me No Execute on him. If Blade stayed No Execute that would be one thing, but he switched to Execute. That lowers Blade in my estimation considerably.

I agree with this. Blade seems suspicious to me, somewhat more so than usual.

[st.cronin]

uh, never mind

[LoneStarGirl]

Good grief this is a total change. I didn't realize they could kill two people a night. Or is this making up for the lack of a death the other night? This kind of makes me suspicious of Chief.... I will be back at 4 to catch up and put in my votes.