The NBA 2014-15 Regular Season Thread

[BishopMVP]

Bill Simmons sent me down a rabbit hole of 80's love. So jealous at how loud that crowd was.

Larry Bird (36pts, 12rebs, 9asts) vs Detroit 1987 Game 5 (Bird Steals it!) - YouTube

Imagine Parrish's punch @ 2:45 now. He didnt even get a foul!

Btw, still a G.O.A.T., but Larry Bird had a fugly shooting motion...

[miami_fan]

The "Robert Parish is a thug" columns would have been incredible.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

What is that vision? If the goal is trying to be a "top 4" team in the conference/legitimate contender, we just saw Phoenix with a better version of Brandon Knight in Dragic come in 9th for a season then project to finish 9th pre deadline this year.

The vision is that, in 2-3 seasons, have enough talent through FAs/picks or assets moved for a player that you can compete for the top 4. The team isn't there right now. Moving Dragic for Knight was a good move for multiple reasons: First, it sets the odometer back 6 years as Dragic will be 29 in May and Knight is still 23 until December. All the key players for the Suns are all under 26. So, instead of having a 32-year old Dragic when everyone else is hitting their prime, they now have a nucleus that will all be 26-29 together.

Next, Dragic is a better player, but he doesn't compliment Bledsoe well. 538 did a great study on how poorly Dragic played with Bledsoe compared to when Eric was out with his injury last season. Both Dragic and Bledsoe need the ball, Dragic is a poor defender and struggles against bigger 2s/3s and Dragic isn't the outside shooter than Knight is - his value is in getting to the basket. Knight is more of a combo guard, he has a 6-7 wingspan and can guard most 2s and he is a very good spot up shooter. It's like trading Korver for Carmelo in Atlanta - Carmelo is the better "player", but Korver is a better fit.

Finally, Knight will probably cost 20-30 million less over 5 years and be much younger throughout the end of the deal.

What changes going forward? Maybe Alex Len does develop into a stud? Maybe you hit on your own lotto pick? I don't think Morris or Bledsoe are getting markedly better, and either way, a SG the quality of Brandon Knight isn't the difference between 4th and 10th... (And Brandon Knights can be signed for $14m/y)

Markieff Morris has made enormous progress in two years and Len is a lot better than last year. Bledsoe is also accepting his role as team leader and having his best season. The Suns have Bledsoe (25), Knight (23), both Morris' (25), Len (21) - with Goodwin (20) and Warren (21) as 1st round pedigrees who could also become quality players. They should have around 15-20 mil in cap space this summer (much more in 2016) and have 5 1sts in the next 3 drafts. That is a pretty good position to be in. If they can get a high level 3/4 and Knight/Bledsoe/Kief/Len continue their progression - there is a chance they are top 4.

Which team is falling off? SA and Dallas are getting old, but those are the two best run/coaches organizations in the league, you can't write either off. OKC might fall off when Durant goes to DC in 2016, but that's 50/50 and they'll still have Westbrook/Ibaka. Minnesota (oh, and New Orleans) has an absolute stud now, the Lakers are the Lakers, etc. Brandon Knight's and Markieff Morris's are nice but they aren't going to cut it, so yeah I'd take the risk and swing for the fence, or hope I could package assets for another Harden.

There's nothing to stop the Suns from making a play for another RFA/pending UFA on the market. They have a ton of cap space, 5 first rounders in 3 years (plus the unprotected Miami pick down the road) and some intriguing young players on cheap deals (Archie Goodwin, TJ Warren, Reggie Bullock). Throught the entire trade dealine fiasco, the only real trade asset they lost was the Lakers pick. But, again, if they Lakers finish in the top 3-5 as expected, the value of that pick takes a hit.

Picks 8-15 the previous season were Caldwell-Pope, Trey Burke, McCollum, MCW, Steven Adams, Olynyk, Shabazz and Giannis, why are we limiting it to 8-15 when there's a decent chance its higher, and if my goal was to compete in the next 2-3 seasons why wouldn't I have done everything to hold on to Goran?

Because, in 3 seasons, Goran will be 32 and making 22 million a season. Bledsoe and Goran played the same position and the Suns had to make a decision on who to pay/keep. They made the call that Bledsoe at 12-14 million over 5 years (from ages 24-28) was a better investment than Goran at 20-22 over 5 years (from ages 29-33). I happen to agree. But, paying two PGs like Goran and Bledsoe a combined 34-35 million would have been a bad move.

I actually like McDonough (one of the few, possibly only, from that media crowd), enjoy watching the Suns play, and feel bad they're in the Western Conference, but I think he clearly messed up in loading up on PG's last summer and probably messed up here (but am willing to admit I'm wrong if Brandon Knight develops). I also totally swear none of this is because I'm watching a Celtics team starring Jae Crowder, Tyler Zeller, and now Jonas Jerebko play better after each trade.

He did mess up on the PG experiment. But, remember, the original plan was to bring in Thomas as leverage on the Bledsoe negotiations. There was a real chance that summer that the Suns would have moved Eric (for the same reasons the Bucks moved Knight). But, partly because the Suns had Thomas, they were able to play chicken a little longer and Bledsoe agreed to a deal below the max. Once that happened, Thomas wasn't needed. Still, the Suns tried to make lemonade out of lemons and play all the guards together, but it became clear that wasn't a winning solution. So, McDonough did what smart GMs do and he pulled the plug. The Suns had a pending UFA who didn't want to stay and play with Bledsoe, plus a 5-9 PG who had cost them a 2nd round pick and $7 mil of cap space last summer (as Bledsoe insurance). He turned both those assets into 3 first round picks and 2 expirings (Thornton may actually be a decent bench player once integrated as well). Those trades allowed him to move their 11th player (Plumlee) with a cap number of over $2 mil next year, a PG asset (Innis) and the Lakers pick to get a bigtime upgrade at the 2/combo guard in Knight. Without the cap room from moving Thomas and Plumlee, it would have been hard to resign Knight.

There's no exact plan to being a good GM. Usually, if you can make incremental improvements, keep upgrading assets and stay as young as possible until your window, you are in pretty good shape. I think the Suns have done this. In the 2012 offseason, the Suns had an expensive and aging roster without much promise (guys like Nash, Gortat, Scola, Shannon Brown, Beasley, ..). In two seasons, they moved all those players plus Jared Dudley and Dragic for 6 first round picks, a 7th and 8th 1st that became Knight, Bledsoe, Marcus Morris, Gerald Green, Archie Goodwin and Brandon Wright. They also drafted Alex Len and TJ Warren. That's a very impressive turnaround in 2 seasons and McDonough deserves a lot of credit.

Just think about the Bledsoe deal. The Suns traded Dudley and a 2nd round pick to the Clippers for Bledsoe. Then, one year later, the Clippers dumped Dudley and a 1st on the Bucks for cap space. So, in essence, the Clips traded Eric Bledsoe and a 1st for a 2nd and one year of Dudley (when he was mostly injured).

[RainMaker]

I don't think it was a mistake to load up on PGs. Thomas was actually a good signing if you're talking straight value. He's a PG who should be making $10 million a year that they signed for under $7 million.

And in the end, even though I think they should have gotten more from the Celtics, they basically turned half a season of Isaiah Thomas into a future 1st round pick.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Arles

Just think about the Bledsoe deal. The Suns traded Dudley and a 2nd round pick to the Clippers for Bledsoe. Then, one year later, the Clippers dumped Dudley and a 1st on the Bucks for cap space. So, in essence, the Clips traded Eric Bledsoe and a 1st for a 2nd and one year of Dudley (when he was mostly injured).

Actually, it was a three team deal involving the Bucks as well. The Clips got Dudley and JJ Redick, the Suns got Bledsoe and Caron Butler, and both the Suns and Clips sent 2nd rounders to Milwaukee.

But, hey, details, you know.

[nol]

Here's the graph of the Suns' vision:



X axis is average age differential between 2 lineups, Y axis is net rating difference. You'd expect about a +3.5 to +4 net rating improvement over 4 years, so if the Suns' starting lineup with Knight instead of Dragic is a little less than 0 now (so corresponding to a slightly below .500 team), it would be the equivalent of that of a 50 win team in 4 years.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Yeah it was weird earlier in the year when the Cavs were being written off. They have by far the most talented team in the league. Should cruise to the Finals this year.

I think this is overreaction in the other direction FWIW. I think they'll make the ECF, but Atlanta is fully capable of giving them a stern test and it still wouldn't shock me to see Cleveland lose to them there.

This is probably as good a time as any to point out that I was wrong about OKC. I still hate the fact that Davis will probably not even be in the playoffs.

[RainMaker]

Atlanta can win a series against them but Cleveland will have the 3 best players in it and it would be embarrassing for them to lose.

[Lathum]

RIP Anthony Mason

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

RIP Anthony Mason

Damn.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, it was a three team deal involving the Bucks as well. The Clips got Dudley and JJ Redick, the Suns got Bledsoe and Caron Butler, and both the Suns and Clips sent 2nd rounders to Milwaukee.

But, hey, details, you know.

I spaced on the Redick piece. It ended up being Bledsoe, Caron Butler, a 1st and a 2nd for Redick and one season of Dudley. My point was more on how the Suns sold an asset at its peak (Dudley) to get Bledsoe.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Lathum

RIP Anthony Mason

sad, always liked him as a player.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Arles

sad, always liked him as a player.

Yes....very sad. He was a tough player, perfect fit for those 90's Knicks teams. Waaaaay too young.

[RainMaker]

One last thing on the Suns moves.

My issue is that the Suns gave up more to get Knight than they got for trading away Dragic. Dragic is the better NBA player.

Now I understand the fits and such, but I just think they gave too much away to get Knight (who really wasn't in demand by other teams). I still contend that Lakers pick is valuable. It could be 4 or 5 in the 2016 draft.

[nol]

That's the gamble you make between value (3 pretty good players signed for like $20 million a year combined) and the real-world stuff (all 3 do mostly the same stuff, diminishing returns when there aren't enough touches/minutes, then somebody's getting pissed off and wants to leave, then you have no leverage).

If Gordon Hayward and Chandler Parsons can find max offers from other teams there will be a similar demand for Brandon Knight, especially with a rising cap much more imminent.

The Lakers pick could be in a range where you could get player who could be good, whereas Brandon Knight is good and will still improve. For all anyone knows, the 2021 pick Phoenix got from Miami could be even better than Dragic, but when making a decision you have to look at the downside too.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Yes....very sad. He was a tough player, perfect fit for those 90's Knicks teams. Waaaaay too young.

He personified a guy who had minimal talent but made it with hard work

[nol]

Brian Shaw just got fired. I know the Sixers and Knicks are just terrible overall, but if you had to rank the worst single-game performances in the NBA this season the Nuggets would probably have 5 of the top 10.

[stevew]

Yeah. He was secretly an awful coach. Well I guess after their recent tailspin it wasn't a secret.

[stevew]

I do kinda wonder if Beasley can provide about 80% of Bosh. I know that the CBA is junky but he averaged almost 30PPG. There could be a really fun 2/7 CLE vs MIA first round.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by stevew

Yeah. He was secretly an awful coach. Well I guess after their recent tailspin it wasn't a secret.

yeah, definitely. The Nuggets were having a crappy season so far.

You know who is secretly having a terrific season relative to their roster and are being coached rather wonderfully ? The Jazz. After a rough start they are 18-16 in their last 34 games and added another impressive win last night (after beating New Orleans, San Antonio, Portland and Milwaukee in the last 2 week) by beating the Grizzlies.
All while featuring the youngest roster in the NBA and starting a rookie PG in Exum who is clearly a couple years away from being a legit NBA starter (he is actually not at all hurting the team though, his terrible boxscore stats notwithstanding, he is playing pretty smart basketball already)

Rudy Gobert is a future DPOY candidate, the guy is a octopus-shaped wall near the rim and does a great job already reading offensive movement and is even mobile enough to get out to the perimeter and cover PnRs excellently. On offense, he would even now put up 15 a game on a team like the Mavs due to his ability in the PnR alone. Heck, he even discovered a some sort of passing ability.


The Knicks loose to the Kings by 40 at home ... For the Kings, i love that Karl is playing Casspi good minutes. The guy is a flat out good player and a terrific glue-guy.

[Alf]

fwiw, the French national team has kind of sent an ultimatum to Joakim Noah to know if he would play for the national team for Euro2015 (which is in France) and Olympic games 2016. Noah has only played once (euro 2011 for France).

The fact that Gobert is playing at that level currently is more than a nice alternative to Noah not coming to play for France.

[RainMaker]

As a Bulls fan, I hope he doesn't. Has a bad knee and getting older. Needs the time off more than anything.

[Neuqua]

Agreed. Noah needs to rest. And I think he told French media officially last night that he's going to sit it out.

[stevew]

Ray Allen to play on his sofa for the rest of the season. Will be interesting to see if this is it, or if he attempts to make a real comeback next year.

[nol]

Is anyone with Insider able to summarize this article? Pelton/Ford: Scouting vs. Statistical Analysis

I've reached out to Kevin Pelton before to ask if he's ever considered putting a parameter in his statistical model that incorporates recruiting ranking or preseason mock draft position to avoid overreacting based on 20-30 college games, so it would be interesting to see the differences between scouting favorites and statistical favorites.

[AENeuman]

The Kobe doc was amazing. So Kobe top 5 all time?

[Vince, Pt. II]

Russell Westbrook is playing out of his mind right now.

[korme]

He has made a quick ascent to the top of my list of favorite players this season.

[Sublime 2]

Celtics on the verge of signing JaVale McGee for the remainder on this season and next season. He's an intriguing reclamation project, and there's definitely minutes for him at the 5 to rebuild any sort of value. First real rim protector the C's have had since Perkins.

Good luck to Coach Stevens, but I'm a fan of the move...for now.

[Arles]

Evan Turner, Isaiah Thomas and JaVale McGee... Maybe the Celts should bring in Lance Stephenson and complete the clubhouse cycle

[lungs]

Bucks just aren't the same team without Brandon Knight. That's OK though. It's not as if they were going anywhere in the the playoffs this year and I understand they didn't want Knight taking up so much cap space for when it comes time to extend Giannis.

But for the time being, the product on the court is worse off.

On the arena front, Governor Walker wants to get something done and I'm sure something will get done. But he also turned down an offer from the Menominee Indian tribe that would make the state's contribution nothing if they'd allow the tribe to build a casino. Walker turned that deal down but has proposed taxpayer funding in his budget.

[Arles]

Yahoo is reporting that the McGee deal fell through in Boston because the Celtics wanted a team option for the 2nd year and JaVale wanted it to be a player option. Golden State and Toronto are rumored to be interested.

[nol]

Still can't get over this. If you gave most people 5 dribbles in a straight line to go full court they couldn't get close enough to shoot a layup, and Westbrook took about the most circuitous path possible.

[stevew]

Let's say OKC realizes that KD is gone, and he's going to walk. You still have Russell for 2 years.

1. What is the best sequence of trades you can make to keep Russell happy and maximize the return for one year of KD?

2. What is the best player/package of players you can get for KD? Right now I'd only assume NY/LA/WAS are likely destinations.

3. Can you allow him to walk for nothing?

My answers.

I'm thinking BOS could chuck you a ton of picks for KD, but it would never be enough. Is Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, Jr. and some picks the best KD deal you can get? Or is it Randall and the Lakers pick(especially if it's #1). I guess you just hope he elects to stay? Maybe you can team up Love and Russell in OKC this summer?

Such a weird thing in OKC

[nol]

I think they can "allow" him to walk for nothing just because even if he does leave, their odds of winning a championship either this year or next are going to be greater than winning in the future with whatever they get for him.

I really don't think there's that big of a chance he's going to return home to the Wizards, but either way he wouldn't be traded unless he pulls a Goran Dragic. If that happened, a few teams in playoff contention would absolutely make an all-in trade offer for even a half-season rental of Durant (maximum number of first-rounders and their best young player at the very least) and OKC would absolutely ship him wherever for the best offer. I think Durant is image-conscious enough that he wouldn't want to change teams twice in less than a season, so even if he ultimately does want to leave he'll be saying/doing all the right things as far as being committed to OKC until the end of next season.

[RainMaker]

They allow him to walk unless he flat out demands a trade. The problem with any team trading for Durant is they would have to give up good assets to do so. Leaving him with a team that is likely worse than OKC. Minnesota got pretty lucky with the Love situation.

The only team that makes some sense is Washington. Mainly because it's his hometown and they have a player in Beal who is a better asset than most teams have to offer. Maybe something like Beal, Nene's expiring, and some 1st round picks. Still a terrible deal for OKC but if Durant wants out and they want to remain competitive for the future, it's about all they can do.

Boston has a bunch of crappy first round picks which are more suited for a team looking to rebuild. No clue why Durant would want to play for the Knicks or Lakers.

Probably smart for Durant to play out his deal and then see what the landscape looks like. Also for OKC to try and win with him and Westbrook while they're in their primes.

[Groundhog]

5 dribbles, 4 seconds, full length of court dunk.

[Neon_Chaos]

Ugh. Wes Matthews appears to have torn his achilles.

[Groundhog]

Eek. The Afflalo trade is looking even better now, although good bye bench scoring once again.

[korme]

Poor Rip City. Centers and 2guards have no luck in Portland.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Fantasy basketball question: would you accept an offer of Elfrid Payton for Wesley Matthews in a keeper league?

I have Matthews and he is one of my better performers, but my team is horrid. I just joined this league this year, but this is a long running league where this team was more or less run into the ground by the previous owner.

This league uses the standard stats and it literally keeps everyone over from year to year, with no rules to lose them. So you can draft a guy and keep him forever.

Matthews is 28 and is pretty much proven. I have no quality PG talent (best guys currently Avery Bradley, Kirk Hinrich, CJ Watson yuk). I'm a little deeper with decent talent at SG (Bradley, CJ Miles), and I consider the swing spots (SG, SF) easier spots to get good talent more easily.

So I am leaning to doing it. I am pretty much out of the playoffs, so this season doesn't matter much.

Is Payton's ceiling enough to trade away a productive current player in his prime? Payton feels like a mix between Bledsoe and Rondo to me, but not sure if he can reach the level of either one. But he's just 20.

any chance the trade request is still pending? Click yes.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by stevew

any chance the trade request is still pending? Click yes.

Haha right? Yeah, that pretty much sucks because this puts Matthews out for next year too, really.

That team is not really going anywhere right now, but it is a massive keeper league (you keep 15 guys or something like that, and no limitations on who you protect). I'll have to decide if it is worth it to keep Matthews around because there only six bench spots.

Two of those bench spots currently have Blake Griffin and Jabari Parker on them, so my injured player list grows. Good thing Blake might be back as soon as Sunday.

[whomario]

I am not sure his style of play is actually the best for the team and actually think other players would do better with a different aproach (this is not a d-league roster, the Thunder do have quality players) and i am definitely sure it is not sustainable no matter how much of a physical marvel he is. With that caveat: Russel Westbrook is a freaking spectacle right now

26/10/15 already again tonight at the end of the 3rd, that makes 5 Triple-Doubles in 6 games. 35/10/11 in his last 8 games.

[Young Drachma]

Someone needs to turn up the difficulty. Surely Westbook is playing NBA2K with the difficulty for CPU way lower than the rest of the league.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Steph Curry is insane.

[albionmoonlight]

Unless one of the other seven teams in the West drops, it looks like either Westbrook or Anthony Davis will not be in the playoffs this season. That's a shame.

[miami_fan]

Thank you Chris Bosh for playing for a few weeks with the blood clots but don't do that dumb shit again.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Unless one of the other seven teams in the West drops, it looks like either Westbrook or Anthony Davis will not be in the playoffs this season. That's a shame.

But we get do watch the vast collection of talent in Indiana and Charlotte get 7-8 seeds in the East. I agree with the idea that you take the top 16 teams overall and seed accordingly. The thought that a 35-29 Pelicans team will be sitting while a Kemba Walker-led 28-34 Charlotte team makes it in the East is difficult to stomach. Heck the Suns (who basically punted the season in the West), would have a 3-game lead for the 7th seed in the East.

What's even crazier is that Indiana, Charlotte and even Milwaukee have been able to buoy their win totals with games against teams like Philly and New York. Outside of the Lakers, everyone in the West is dangerous. Utah and Sacramento are "bottom feeders', but actually playing good basketball right now (Utah has won 9 of the last 12 - including wins over Memphis, San Antonio and Portland). Even Minnesota is a little dangerous with KG and Wiggens (recent wins against Portland and Memphis as well).

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by whomario

I am not sure his style of play is actually the best for the team and actually think other players would do better with a different aproach (this is not a d-league roster, the Thunder do have quality players)

Since Feb 1, Russell Westbrook had created 346 points via his assists. That's more than Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving COMBINED (332).

— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) March 9, 2015

[Subby]

Hassan Whiteside is insane.