05-29-2009, 10:18 AM | #901 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
Hey Hoops, I think I said it earlier but just in case. I got no notification of a block. HOWEVER, there is also apparently one wolf that when blocked, doesn't show up as being blocked. I am assuming cultist though, which makes me lean towards a couple people as possible lynches today. See, I went back and re-read the roles like I said I would. |
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05-29-2009, 10:20 AM | #902 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Quote:
This is him, so we may not even know. |
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05-29-2009, 10:20 AM | #903 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I have lunch duty but I think I may present several lynch candidates for discussion afterwards. Sorry not doing it first but it has been pretty hectic.
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05-29-2009, 10:35 AM | #904 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
It's also possible the real body guard blocked a wolf and DID get a confirmed block. |
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05-29-2009, 10:35 AM | #905 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
Anyone Dubb clears is not the cultist as the rules state the believed seer can find the cultist. |
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05-29-2009, 10:37 AM | #906 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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05-29-2009, 10:38 AM | #907 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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05-29-2009, 10:39 AM | #908 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Trust Lists:
High - PB (close to making this a game assumption, as in 'if he = wolf then we are screwed') Pretty High - Dubb (still would like to see a scan on him at some point) Moderately High - Saldana (can't be cunning if Dubb = good), Tyrith (more recent scan than Chief, which may be important with potential cultist conversion), Chief Rum No real opinion at all - NTN, Telle, Lathum (this is weird for D3), Schmidty Confused by - Danny (thinking either roled villager or wolf at the moment, but doesn't seem to be playing his 'usual' game to me) Slight distrust - Lerri, USFL, Racer. All three of those are kind of jumbled for me after yesterday. Going to review posts from yesterday to work on some kind of separation and/or better categorization of these guys. Hmm, it felt like we had more players than this. I'm really thinking that our trust list is somehow busted. The list at the top feels a little bit "too good to be true" to me. Maybe random.org really liked us, but our voting patterns have been doing their best to look a gift horse in the mouth ... but I kind of doubt it. |
05-29-2009, 10:41 AM | #909 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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The seer roles...
Quote:
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05-29-2009, 10:41 AM | #910 | ||
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
I'm pretty sure that Dubb can find the cunning but not the cultist. Quote:
No mention of cultist in there for either seer, which makes sense because the cultist is actually a villager. |
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05-29-2009, 10:42 AM | #911 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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05-29-2009, 10:42 AM | #912 | ||
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Possible he got a block, but he would not know. Only the believed would know, based on my reading of the rules. Quote:
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05-29-2009, 10:43 AM | #913 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Duh...I can't read today...got them confused sorry guys...
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05-29-2009, 10:44 AM | #914 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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No worries, it is good to have the conversation in the thread so we are all on the same page and can ask the moderator for clarification when needed.
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05-29-2009, 10:45 AM | #915 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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05-29-2009, 10:47 AM | #916 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Anyway, I don't have myself on my own trust list. Obviously everyone else can slot me where they think it is appropriate.
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05-29-2009, 10:49 AM | #917 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Just woke up. Mixed results about the night. I think it is good that our COT is growing, but I think we b=need to scan some of the people with questionable voting records.
With the info today I see myself looking at one of those people. |
05-29-2009, 10:50 AM | #918 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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So if I'm clear on the strategy - unless the seers find a wolf tonight, we lynch Saldana tomorrow and get a wolf right? And then repeat until the Brutal is dead?
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05-29-2009, 10:51 AM | #919 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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05-29-2009, 10:53 AM | #920 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Yeah, I probably should be on the slight distrust list. I'm one of the few people still alive who voted for Daddy Torgo that hasn't been cleared by somebody (Danny and Lerriuqs being the others). I've also played in such a way that might seem cultist. - placing a single vote on Schmidty -pushing to wait to lynch Martin until there was no kill so him turning up clean looks slightly bad for me -talking about the cultist role more then anyone else. Two of those three can also be said for Chief Rum though. I'm not actually the cultist though (or a converted wolf if the cultist was converted last night). |
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05-29-2009, 10:53 AM | #921 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Hrrrmm.. I was thinking that if saldana got night killed that he'd take a wolf with him, but re-reading the rules that's not right. I'm not sure we're in a position yet to need to be trading 1-for-1 with wolves and villagers. Perhaps there's a better role for him to take? |
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05-29-2009, 11:03 AM | #922 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
Better now than when we're running out of villagers isn't it? |
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05-29-2009, 11:07 AM | #923 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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05-29-2009, 11:10 AM | #924 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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I think that pretty much lies with Saldana - if he is willing to get swapped 1:1 for a wolf then I'm willing to vote him into the spot. The question arises of when do we use it?
If we go 0-2 tomorrow then do we take it tomorrow to ensure a 1-2? Right now we have 14 players left, with a ratio of either 9-5 or 10-4 (maybe 11-3 if you assume a block last night and three starting wolves + cultist, but that seems optimistic). 9-5 + (0-2) = 7-5 + (1-2) = 5-4 heading into Day 5. Only gives us benefit of not getting skunked, but I would like to think with two seers that we are pulling at least one wolf today + tomorrow. 10-4 + (0-2) = 8-4 + (1-2) = 6-3 heading into Day 5. Again, I would like to think that we are getting a wolf on our own over the next two days. Anyway, I guess after looking at the numbers I'm fine with putting Saldana in another role or letting him stay right where he is so he could act as a potential fail-safe for Day 4. |
05-29-2009, 11:18 AM | #925 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
If we're going to assign that role to somebody, I think it would be best to assign it to whoever the other seer is. That would do a couple of things: 1.) Provide temporary not bodyguard protection for one of our seers 2.) Build a bigger CoT (with at least PurdueBrad and the other seer in it. We would know both were telling to the truth if a 3rd person didn't claim to be the seer. We would also know who everyone had scanned). |
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05-29-2009, 11:25 AM | #926 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Well, Dubb cannot be believed into that role because he is already believed as a seer.
So that would mean the other seer (assuming he is in the game) would need to come forward in order to take on the brutal wolf role. And we would have to believe them enough to want to assign that role to them. I think that is pretty high risk/reward. Don't the wolves know which roles are in the game? Hmm, went back to review the rules and saw this: Quote:
Given the number of vanilla villagers that we've seen so far I'm guessing that not all listed villager roles are in the game. If they know that "false seer" is not in the game then they can step up and grab that role uncontested. Color me nervous about this plan of attack. |
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05-29-2009, 11:27 AM | #927 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Quote:
True, but the key part is that I have been scanned. We still need to verify the allegiance of said seer and whether he's the real or fake seer, but fact is, he read me as good (which is true, but you guys know I wouldn't say otherwise were I a wolf).
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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05-29-2009, 11:29 AM | #928 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Okay, I guess I didn't read the rules very closely (the part about the wolves knowing what roles are in the game). I agree that my plan is heavily flawed then. |
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05-29-2009, 11:30 AM | #929 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Yeah, I wasn't saying you were a wolf when you were scanned, but I was suggesting you could have been a cultist. If you were the cultist, you would have come up as a villager. |
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05-29-2009, 11:34 AM | #930 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Secondary discussion for the village: how many roles are in the game (from the start, not talking believed)? And which ones? I believe it states in the rules that not all roles will be present in the game. We may want to consider how far that was likely to go, given our wolf number assumptions. We're already talking a Tough Wolf consideration with last night's missing kill/block info. Well, that's pretty deep into the Wolf roles. Did BK go that far?
If I had to guess, I think the wolves got most of their roles (including cultist), the villagers only got the most basic, probably with a fake seer (so, BG, seer, fake seer, duke, but no manic, tough villager, etc.). I think he would set it up this way for balance, since by and large, the village will control the believed roles. Something to chew on, though.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
05-29-2009, 11:43 AM | #931 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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The places I am most willing to look today:
Lerriuqs and USFL- Both give us some decent voting information but as we learned from last game, wolves are usually the best voters and villagers the worst so I'm slightly leaning away from this. Hoops and Lathum- We know how much I always distrust Hoops. And Lathum has played a very non-Lathum game thus far. Telle and CR- I have trouble reading Telle and am probably colored by last game when she was a wolf. CR could've been the cultist (and wouldn't necessarily be surprised) so it's a possibility. I've paired them up because I think as pairs, they make interesting plays (but it also doesn't mean if A is bad, B is good for vice versa). The info group of lerriuqs/Tecmo does net us some more voting data. The veteran group of Hoops/Lathum are both incredibly valuable as villagers but frankly, very scary as wolves. The wild card group is just that, a complete mystery. The only reason I'm thinking CR could've been the cultist is that by making him day 1 seer, he would eventually have drawn an attack when he wasn't guarded (like last night). So yeah, don't know if that helps at all but if you have any reads on any of those players, throw them out there. |
05-29-2009, 11:46 AM | #932 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Also, just because I don't know how the rest of the day will go:
BG guards dubb tonight I self-protect (hehe, I could make some dirty jokes) Dubb scans his list, I scan mine I recommend that the other 'seer' scans Saldana to see if they get the same result as dubb, who's scans we know are right. I'm not doubting dubb, trying to verify which seer is real. |
05-29-2009, 11:52 AM | #933 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Shouldn't there be at least one scan of dubb? I lean heavily toward him being who he says he is, of course, but we can't really attach serious meaning to his scans without it. With it, we can be absolutely clear on his scans, without reservation.
PB, is your connecting me to Telle purely a hypothetical based on your own arbitrary construct of criteria, or do you have in game reasons, like similar votes or posts or something like that? Same question with hoop/Lathum. I think it's just the former, but I felt it was unclear in your post. As someone who is completely unsure of Telle, I'm not particularly pleased to be linked with her at the moment if it is without cause. If it is with cause, well, then, rail away.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
05-29-2009, 11:54 AM | #934 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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PB, lets make sure when you are planning the guarding stuff that you are factoring for three days for the real bodyguard and carefully considering your own personal double-up.
Quote:
I'm not sure if this has been a problem yet, but it could start to be as we get deeper into the game. |
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05-29-2009, 11:56 AM | #935 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
I think the only way he isn't who he says he is if the Duke role isn't in the game. If it isn't, we're probably screwed. |
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05-29-2009, 11:57 AM | #936 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Never mind, it has to be in the game since a tie was broken.
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05-29-2009, 11:58 AM | #937 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Seems to me that something is going horribly wrong, but I don't know what...
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05-29-2009, 11:59 AM | #938 |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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05-29-2009, 11:59 AM | #939 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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PB, I haven't been able to pay very close attention to this game and to be honest alot of it has gone over my head.
Like I said earlier, I am sure there are people who would testify it takes me some time to get going in more complex games and I just haven't had that kind of time between being away and the quarter winding down at school. |
05-29-2009, 12:00 PM | #940 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
I believe Telle is tied with the fewest posts of any living player with USFL. She has struck me as very UTR so far. |
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05-29-2009, 12:01 PM | #941 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Vote Racer
He has gone all villager with his votes and now it seems today he is either trying to put a plan in place that is bad for us and he has also thrown out stuff that isn't accurate. My vote is subject to change barring further info, but we need to get started and this seems like a good spot |
05-29-2009, 12:02 PM | #942 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Quote:
Considering I just surmised a few posts back about the likelihood that BK didn't give the village many roles, and the further submission that the wolves likely know what roles are present in the game, I think we should seriously consider the possibility that the Duke role is not in the game. dubb as a wolf knowing this would easily be able to "reveal" as the Duke if he knew no one in the game could countermand him. Look, it's a serious stretch, and I acknowledge that, but it goes back to what level of trust we can put into these scans. I see the scenario above as entirely possible, even a likely play if the Duke's not in the game. Getting a scan to be sure would remove this and give us almost absolute clearance on dubb's scans.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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05-29-2009, 12:03 PM | #943 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
USFL is a villager? How do you know that? |
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05-29-2009, 12:05 PM | #944 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
Agreed - it also tells us whether we need to look at the votes from Day on how they got it down to a tie. Especially with Dubb being a very late vote on DT... |
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05-29-2009, 12:06 PM | #945 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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I said this yesterday a time or two, but few seem to acknowledge it. The tiebreakers don't end with the Duke. DT would have been lynched by the second tiebreaker as well, as he received the last vote among the tied candidates. BTW, the final vote was set to be dubb's before the Danny thing. I forget how the Danny vote ended up, but I know at some point, it was dubb's vote that was last on DT.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
05-29-2009, 12:07 PM | #946 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
If we were going to check Dubb's story as Duke, I think it'd be best we go after Danny (since he currently doesn't have a believed role). He's the one who pushed for the tie vote thing. If Dubb is a wolf, then Danny probably is as well. |
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05-29-2009, 12:09 PM | #947 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Those of you that commented on stuff so far, thanks a ton. I've had a busy day and a really long post I just made disappeared so I'll post it later. I need to teach for a bit.
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05-29-2009, 12:11 PM | #948 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
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Quote:
Danny was actually fighting the tie and wanted to test Dubb's duke story. If Dubb's a wolf, Danny isn't. |
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05-29-2009, 12:12 PM | #949 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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05-29-2009, 12:16 PM | #950 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Chief, I'm in agreement that a scan on Dubb would make a lot of sense. It would help me feel a lot better about our trust list, which at the moment has me pretty uneasy.
I know how it got where it is, but it feels too big (5 out of 13) with too many good players on it in a game where we aren't actually lynching any wolves. |
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