02-08-2008, 11:38 AM | #901 | |
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I'm not sure "a ton of money" is an outlier. Up until last night, there was no risk of it going anywhere, so it would be silly to keep any money as cash onhand — getting killed would give cash onhand to the wolves, whereas money in the bank would go to the beneficiary. You're right, though, that no money in the bank is one heck of an outlier. I think we've mentioned that before, so I'd imagine the cutthroats have tried to avoid being conspicuous there, but one never knows.
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02-08-2008, 11:42 AM | #902 |
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Here's a thought. When path died, he had 10K in the bank -- the rest of it was in a CD. However, my thinking before this had been that the wolves were killing people with no money in the bank. hoops and wednesday -- can you guys verify this?
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02-08-2008, 11:45 AM | #903 | |
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how can you have so much money? you did bid 40K on the theif right? you should have about 50K, if im off let me knw, cuz this is raising a flag for me.
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02-08-2008, 11:47 AM | #904 | |
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We need to lynch the wolf to have people we can TRUST. We aren't going to win this game by blindly giving away money or having people die and give money to random people. Our money needs to stay on OUR SIDE, and lynching a wolf gives us an actual voting record that we can use to figure out who is on our side. To assume that we're going to win by playing only defense is the height of folly in my opinion. |
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02-08-2008, 11:48 AM | #905 |
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02-08-2008, 11:48 AM | #906 | |
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I'm not assuming we're going to win by playing only defense. I'm coming up with a strategy on how to deal with the power of the thief. |
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02-08-2008, 11:50 AM | #907 | |
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Obviously the more recently someone has won it, the more value there is within the information. But yes, I think that anyone who has held this power could feel free to chime in here. If they have comments that pique the interest of another person who had it because of big discrepancies, then that could be useful information to have. |
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02-08-2008, 11:51 AM | #908 | |
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The main point is to identify the people who are outside the norm. People who have inherited money should have more money than people who have not. So I think there has to be a level of reason applied to the "outlier" status on the high end, if that is where you are going. |
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02-08-2008, 11:55 AM | #909 |
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i think i sort of like pass' point about bankrupting Mr. W tonight
we all need to remember that it's not NUMBERS that win this game, it's $$$ |
02-08-2008, 11:57 AM | #910 |
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02-08-2008, 12:01 PM | #911 |
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OK, did some post digging on Pass and I'm not as convinced now as I was going in that he is the right vote. His arguments aren't as "pick the hot candidate" as I thought they were before this exercise.
Post #156 - vote off Swaggs, almost exact same time as Lathum (4 hours before deadline), he is third vote on candidate who has been discussed all day Post #163 - Pass defends Lathum to Tyrith as not starting landslide on Swaggs. My initial reaction was being uneasy that he defended another player on D1. Why defend someone if you don't have any idea about guilt/innocence? However, Lathum was Rich and Pass may have been worried about guilt by association on run-up - this makes sense on either team, to some extent. Not a huge deal on its own looking back, imo Post #394 - votes for SnDvls, thinks he was misleading on DT vote and "double vengeance vote" on Mauboy got his attention Post #601 - Pass asks Path if Schmidty is also on his shortlist Post #642 - Path says Pass is "much higher on my list than Schmidty". Path did mention other people (me, SnDvls, and Arles) at other points, but think this is worth noting with him now being night killed Post #665 - Pass asks what we think of SnDvls as candidate, who was mentioned earlier by Alan in context of vote yesterday Post #668 - Pass says that Tyrith helped save SnDvls during Day 2 Post #674 - Pass presses SnDvls, saying that he may have been "saved" during vote despite dead villagers playing a role in "saving" him Post #698 - Pass votes for Tyrith Pass #718 - Pass voted Tyrith partly for going after me with high money count, partly out of thinking he was trying to save SnDvls yesterday. He obviously has a lot more posts than this, but these are the ones I pulled where he was discussing other people and his votes. |
02-08-2008, 12:33 PM | #912 |
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I'm always guilty of thinking the worst of AlanT in these games, even today when it doesn't seem like he is going to come after me.
Yesterday I felt like he was questioning me in a way that he was basically trying to get me to change my facts. It didn't feel like a give-and-take conversation where he was trying to understand my play, but to question it and draw others towards it. That is a big part of why I was getting frustrated yesterday afternoon - I didn't want to be part of a dog-and-pony show where I'm answering questions for wolves who are going to vote to lynch me anyway. While, in the process, diverting conversation from all other directions. Today he has completely backed off looking at me. He has questioned Chief Rum Re; the seer and he has voted for Passacaglia, who I have indicated is my most likely target. I think what we are supposed to infer is that he picked up the seer last night and that he scanned me and I showed up as Rich. Meanwhile, I'm supposed to be grateful to not be in the line of fire today. However, the wolves had quite a bit of incentive to land the seer yesterday since it was a two-day option. They haven't had a scan released yet and having the ability to shut us out for another two days on top of that must have been appealing for them. If the wolves actually could communicate yesterday (which would mean Alan was lying about shutting down their communications) then I have to believe they would have put in a big order for this. Alan had 21K for the Telecomm and 40K for the seer. This could happen in the framework of the game, but it doesn't give him much wiggle room. 30K starting 45K for votes -10K for changing beneficiaries So he would have about 4K available - close enough that I should look up the numbers to get exact figures on the cost of services. The game will get easier for me if I actually believe that he is on my side. But after re-evaluating Pass I'm having a harder time trusting Alan. I strongly suspect that these two are on opposite sides right now. |
02-08-2008, 12:33 PM | #913 |
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Damn, that killed the discussion.
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02-08-2008, 12:37 PM | #914 |
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OK, so now there is something new to chew on (see my last post)
Kills of Lathum, Saldana, and Path go against the idea that Saldana floated earlier about an inexperienced wolf team, in my opinion. That also supports the idea of Alan as a wolf, although the same could be said for me or Pass for that matter. |
02-08-2008, 12:38 PM | #915 |
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Oh, looks like there is something to discuss! Comments will probably have to wait until after lunch for me.
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02-08-2008, 12:43 PM | #916 | |
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I honestly don't know why you are pushing me on this.. you are smart enough to figure out what happened. What you are doing is setting me up to be night killed on a night with no bodyguard instead. I don't think its a good idea for me to spell it out completely right now. I'll say this.. if you get the Lawyer service tommorrow and decide to use it on me, you will be able to figure out how I had a little extra money than what you might think. I've taken some educated risks in this game in what I think was best for our side. I will say the following, which is the truth. If the wolves come after me tonight to kill me, they aren't going to get a whole lot of cash from me. |
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02-08-2008, 12:48 PM | #917 |
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02-08-2008, 12:49 PM | #918 |
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Well , actually since you came right out and said what I bid on and gave people the exact direction to look into seeing it.. I guess my attempt to not just spell it out is rather blown.
I had 30k to start. Tried to get the government insider night 1 and failed. had 45k to bid from day 2. I bid something like 21,455 for the telecomm service. (I would have to go back and look to see the exact amount), which left me with 23.5k roughly + 15k from voting that day.. According to Barkeep I had a bit over 38k yesterday to bid, of which I spent all but like 500 dollars. I did get 15k from voting however and now have 15.5k. I can now say the following are true thanks to Hoops blowing my cover =\ 1) Hoopsguy is good, I scanned him last night. 2) I still have Swaggs as my beneficiary. I have not changed it as of yet, and I know that was a risk, but I figured if I spent all of my money there wasn't much to deal with anyhows. I would ratherr spend the 10k trying to make sure I got the telecomm or seer services than to change my beneficiary. This is also something provable with the lawyer service tommorrow. 3) I will not say if my money is on hand or in the bank, but I obviously have very little cash right now. I am hoping that is enough to keep the wolves away from me. Without a bodyguard I guess I am a goner tonight though. |
02-08-2008, 01:04 PM | #919 |
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Alan, anyone paying attention should have been able to pick up your change in direction on me from yesterday to today. That, plus the comments to Chief Rum about the two days, clearly indicated that you were at the very least indicating you were the seer.
You are either exactly who you are now saying you are or you are working with the Cutthroat team and had access to information that the team has purchased. That is what I was working through with my post. The Lawyer thing is interesting, but of course it requires us to wait until Night 5 to use it. Ideally, I would rather catch a wolf today or tomorrow and not ever get to Night 5 by voting the game over. Alan, have you ever invested any of your money into CDs along the way? |
02-08-2008, 01:09 PM | #920 | |
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No, I have kept all money up until now on hand usable each day in which I bid a good chunk almost every day on services. I went back to pull up how much money I had daily to provide for "accounting" purposes: 30000 - start 45000 - Day 2 38545 - Day 3 15045 - Day 4 Day 1 I bid 30k on the Govt insider, and failed to get it. Day 2 I bid 21,455 on the Telecomm service Day 3 I bid 38500 on the private investegator. Today I haven't decided what to do with the money however. |
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02-08-2008, 01:16 PM | #921 |
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And your numbers match up with Swaggs still listed as your beneficiary.
So, since you are clearing me lets work through some of the remaining players together. As I noted earlier, I don't think you are on the same team as Passacaglia at this point whichever way it breaks out. Why do you think that both Pass and Chief, who you mentioned yesterday, sat back and allowed yesterday to be a tie? |
02-08-2008, 01:26 PM | #922 | |
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I wasn't around at the deadline so didn't quite see how things worked out in real time so to speak. Just going back through it, assuming either or both were around at the deadline.. if they were not eager to get you voted off, it has to ask one of the following questions: 1) What does that tell us about the other options for the day at the time which I believe was you, Tyrith and TheJackyl. THis doesn't apply only to Pass or Chief, but to everyone who was around.. If they had no incentive to save one over the other, does this mean that none of the three were wolves? 2) With the way rules are set up here, asuming the wolves could pool money or move money once a day, you could assume any one wolf could force a player to be lynched regardless of what other votes are out there by simply paying $50k or $70k or something and voting 7 times at deadline for the same person which at least up till now would be sufficient for a lynch. The reason they don't do so is that it financially is not worth it for them. In this game people are expendable, its money that is important. So my instincts say at least that since the wolves couldn't communicate yesterday they had no ability to really move money around at deadline to save one of their own, thus the way things went down at the deadline helps me feel better about both Tyrith and TheJackyl today (Which my initial post this morning seemed to give that indication that I felt going after the Jackyl again today was a mistake). |
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02-08-2008, 01:26 PM | #923 |
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The cliff notes version of what I just wrote for those who like to skip my posts:
I think yesterday's vote probably says less about Chief or Pass and says more about Tyrith and TheJackyl likely being good. |
02-08-2008, 01:28 PM | #924 |
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Next question - what do you think the night kills say, given that both of us are Rich and not Cutthroats?
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02-08-2008, 01:32 PM | #925 |
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Going back over the voting chart from yesterday:
Barkeep's post in 802: 1 Hoopsguy (575) - Schmidty 2 Hoopsguy (696) - Tyrith 2 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith (698) - Passacaglia 2 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 1 Jackal (701) - Sndvls 3 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 1 Jackal (704) - Alan T 3 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 2 Jackal (706) - Hoopsguy 3 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 3 Jackal (709) - Mr. W 4 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 3 jackal (728) - Jackal 4 Hoopsguy 1 Tyrith 4 Jackal (743) - Claphasma 4 Hoopsguy 2 Tyrith 4 jackal (758) - Chief Rum 4 Hoopsguy 2 Tyrith 4 jackal 1 Chief Rum (763) - Daddy Torgo 4 Hoopsguy 3 Tyrith 4 jackal 1 Chief Rum (780) - Path I guess it makes me feel better about jackal than Tyrith. Tyrith didn't seem to be in too much danger until a late run on him. However I think its still enough for me to lean ok on Tyrith too for now. |
02-08-2008, 01:33 PM | #926 |
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Barkeep, the Wiretapper gets a % of the bids on the day that we bid for the Wiretapper? It lists Days 4 and 5 (and today is, duh, Day 4) under the description.
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02-08-2008, 01:36 PM | #927 | |
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I have been trying to get a handle on that. I think someone already suggested the most likely scenerio earlier in the game.. They probably were trying to find people who possibly had named them as beneficiaries. Based on your reports of what you got from Lathum, it seemed unlikely that the wolves got much if anything from him. Killing people isn't enough in this game, they need to try to figure out where to go to get the money. I wonder where we would end up if we took the opposite approach of normal night kill analysis. Instead of trying to figure out why the wolves were scared of an individual, perhaps we should look to see who the person killed trusted the most? Of course this entire approach could be a big red herring as we aren't sure how much money they started with and if they are in the driver seat for day 5 vote or not (the ending the game vote). I see one of two scenerios as far as that is concerned.. either the wolves started with substantially more money than us but less ability to gain it daily (Thanks to the number of villagers who get 15k a day with votes), thus the wolves actually would want to end the game on day 5 while they still have an edge... or scenerio #2 is they started with more money but not enough to be at an advantage. if that is the case, most of their moves have to be ones that maximize their cash intake, otherwise they've lost the game already. |
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02-08-2008, 01:36 PM | #928 |
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Alan, looking at the voting chart if you believe that wolves are going to put votes on the leaders, and that they are going to be incented to put votes up there, then what are your relative thoughts on the people who voted for me and Jackal?
Jackal and I voted for each other You voted for me That leaves Tyrith (who you have already discussed), MrW, Schmidty, Chief Rum, and Clap. Or do you think looking at the alternate selections is better? That leaves DT, SnDvls, and Pass. |
02-08-2008, 01:38 PM | #929 | |
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Quote:
Correct. The wiretapper gets a refund of sorts. Last edited by Barkeep49 : 02-08-2008 at 01:39 PM. Reason: It's nice being able to edit your posts |
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02-08-2008, 01:38 PM | #930 |
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The problem is that you are guessing who people trusted the most on Night 0. You are an example of someone who didn't bother to change their beneficiary - there are probably others out there.
I may or may not trust my beneficiary, but I haven't been moved to change it a second time quite yet. |
02-08-2008, 01:50 PM | #931 | |
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Well I've commented with Schmidty that he is pretty much playing the game he normally does. I'm not really looking too hard at him. Chief Rum I already expressed a bit of a poor feeling about whereas I feel probably the opposite about Mr.W I don't really trust him, but he has said things in a way that doesn't come across to me as having some agenda at least. I'm willing to leave him alone if my intention is to try to catch a wolf today. Of the people who voted for you, Chief Rum and Claphasma are the two that ping my radar a bit. I haven't played much with Claphasma, I think last game was my first. So its hard for me to get a feel if he normally is spacey or its somehting new in this game. My initial impression of him is that he has been hopping around with what popular opinon is and hasn't had much original thought himself. In the other group, I've talked enough about Pass probably, and I'm thinking if he is a wolf I feel better about Sndvls. Other than defending himself Sndvls hasn't really said alot this game, but he usually plays fairly quiet through the first half of games anyways. DT is odd though, his vote yesterday on Chief Rum seemed weirdly timed, but other than that the only thing I can recall him doing or saying this game is attack me last night because I had to leave for work.. |
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02-08-2008, 01:52 PM | #932 | |
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Well other than that idea, the only other idea I would have about the people who have been killed are all people whom have played for quite some time. And in that case it would turn the spotlight to you and myself (both of whom I know are good), Chief Rum and Passacaglia (both of whom I feel uneasy about), or Mr.W and Sndvls off the top of my head. |
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02-08-2008, 01:53 PM | #933 |
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Alan, was your money in the bank or on hand each night?
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02-08-2008, 01:53 PM | #934 | |
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I guess Schmidty should be added to this list too. I think he's played for longer than I have so thats been quite a while If you were to go down this avenue, I guess it would be interesting to see which of the people on this list also pushed for others on this list (not necessarily ones that are dead) to try to lynch during the day time as well. |
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02-08-2008, 01:54 PM | #935 | |
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wow, one game and you completely nail m personality
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02-08-2008, 01:55 PM | #936 |
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Up until now i've had my money on hand each night. I wasn't (and actually still am not) sure if you can use your money in the bank to bid on things. My objective each day has been to try to bid a large amount on the more important services.. thus if I got killed at night, it would leave very little for the wolves anyhows. That backfired on day 1 as I whiffed on the bid, but other than that I haven't had a ton of money any given night to worry about. That may or may not change starting tonight however. |
02-08-2008, 01:57 PM | #937 |
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Can someone who has had the Friend of the Bank please confirm that Alan has never had money in his bank account up to this point?
Obviously, having money in the bank and having it confirmed by others would build a stronger case for you. I wish that you had given this answer as I would feel a whole lot better moving along in this direction if you had some 3rd party vouching on your financials (not the lack of them, as the case is that you are presenting). |
02-08-2008, 02:01 PM | #938 | |
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Well.. unfortunatly I didnt really build my money strategy based on trying to "prove" myself. I hadn't intended to even reveal today and was waiting till tommorrow anyways. So you caught me a bit off guard. |
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02-08-2008, 02:03 PM | #939 |
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Understood, but I'm a little surprised that you didn't understand cash on hand vs money. I get the "you are too detail-oriented a player to make that mistake" thrown at me from time to time, and it isn't a fun one to respond to. So I won't belabor that point after having just made it.
We've had two players who have had the service, hopefully one of them can confirm your empty bank account status. |
02-08-2008, 02:04 PM | #940 |
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er, cash on hand vs cash in bank.
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02-08-2008, 02:04 PM | #941 |
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Wow, this discussion really detoured while I was out to lunch. Hoops, your level of suspicion in me started today pretty high, then went down, and is now back up? Does that mean I missed my chance to talk about my thoughts today free of your suspicion?
To respond to why I sat back and let it remain a tie (even though you asked Alan, not me) -- I didn't think it was worth wasting 10K to vote either way. I didn't have much of a read on either hoops or The Jackal at that point to say either way. Plus, I wasn't as immersed in the thread as I usually am -- that happens to me in the evenings. Also, I had no intention of pulling deadline shenanigans -- doing that would make it so that we'd bankrupt someone without letting them have a chance to transfer their money. While the tie was good in that we didn't lose money, what we DON'T want is a late lead-change. |
02-08-2008, 02:06 PM | #942 |
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I'm going to read what happened in the last couple hours before deadline (which I hate doing -- I feel like I already skimmed it, so I know what happened, but have to read it again -- it's like checking my work on a test). Then I'll catch up on what happened during lunch.
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02-08-2008, 02:10 PM | #943 |
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Pass, I'm open for a healthy discussion this afternoon if you are.
However, for me personally the first order of business is deciding if I believe Alan. If I do, then there is a pretty good chance I'll join him in voting for you. If I don't, then my vote will go towards Alan. |
02-08-2008, 02:10 PM | #944 | |
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I guess you could clarify my stance on that was more indifference than lack of understanding from trying. Like I said, I didn't expect to really have much cash day to day anyways so didn't figure it a big deal. I'm pretty sure that if I was actually a wolf I would have made sure to do my due dilligence in having all my dollars and cents show up in places to try to back up any story I came up with. To be honest, I don't think any of what I have said in response to your questions really should clear or condemn me. I'm pretty sure that wolves probably have some ability to hide their money in CDs or pass it around to keep from looking suspicious. I'm more answering your questions rather than attacking back because.. well I guess I deserve it after yesterday. |
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02-08-2008, 02:11 PM | #945 | |
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Actually all of your money will be lost if we lynch you. It will only be passed out if you actually pass it out in thread to others. |
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02-08-2008, 02:14 PM | #946 |
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Well, if you know that I'm a good guy from a scan there probably isn't a reason to attack back.
Barkeep, can you give a little clarification on the assets viewed by the Friend of the Bank? Does it represent money in bank account + CD? Strictly bank account? |
02-08-2008, 02:14 PM | #947 | |
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Well.. all I can say is do what you think is best, but please try to do it in the next hour or 90 minutes so I have time to move the little cash I have over to you. Even if you're coming after me, you're the only one I trust really to send the cash to. I'll be on the road for springfield after that and won't be able to do much. I would rather stay around though another day to get another seer read in, and perhaps someone could then use the lawyer service and verify that part of my story if that is the reason you have doubts. |
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02-08-2008, 02:15 PM | #948 | |
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I guess I worded that poorly. You understand what I am saying though I assume and are just ribbing me. I figure its only fair that since yesterday I grilled you when I suspected you being bad that you have the opportunity to today. |
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02-08-2008, 02:16 PM | #949 |
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Well....now I'm just confused.
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02-08-2008, 02:19 PM | #950 |
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Alan, it really isn't about giving you the business today as some kind of payback. It is trying to make a good decision. Just like I'm sure you were doing yesterday with me if you were/are Rich.
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