Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Wait a minute. After us going back and forth for an hour and a half and you getting suspicious of me because I was arguing the other side of your 99.1% certainty you are thinking about flipping????

And here I was leaning back towards Vaimes' direction. Goddamn I hate this game sometimes.

I haven't flipped...and I doubt I will. Vaimes action was just way, way too improbable to ignore.

[cheekimonk]

If you are the other Aes Sedai, along with timmae, and you're village you need to speak up now!

[path12]

Leaving work, heading for home. Be back before deadline to vote.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

If you are the other Aes Sedai, along with timmae, and you're village you need to speak up now!

No, no you don't. We don't need any more dead Aes (Ass) Sedai.

[cheekimonk]

If timmae is Black Ajah, then the village Aes Sedai has to counter his claim. I need options for this channeler artifact. Right now, it's give it to timmae or keep it.

[Glengoyne]

Who haven't we heard from. I'm sitting in the waiting room at urgent care so I can't Easilly research it.

There is too much riding on tonight, and too little input.

I dont think we've heard from Zinto or Narc. Any one else?

[cheekimonk]

I'll give it to timmae or keep it. That probably means one of the 2 of us is going to be the NK target.

[Zinto]

Sorry everyone it has been a hellish day. I have a commute home and then I will be on.

[britrock88]

Narc and I have previously stated our ability for today (Narc's totally unavailable, I'm traveling and checking in daily). Pings to those who have questioned us since then (CW and Path).

[britrock88]

Btw, Cheeki's math is wrong. He squares the probabilities for item-stealing unnecessarily, so he's understating the odds of successful night actions in order to implicate people.

[cheekimonk]

Ha! Ok...trust me, the math is right for the specific scenarios described. If you knew what I do for a living...

[britrock88]

At this point, I'm inclined to thing that cheeki is emboldened by having survived the lynch with Grover. Someone else pointed out how many evil might have piled on to Grover that day, and I'm inclined to think that they may have gone all-out to do so if cheeki has an important role... Such as the Forsaken.

I know much less about the theme than others of you, so feel free to disabuse me.

[Zinto]

More than the cloak thing for me is that yesterday Vaimes seemed to be pushing for trust because he wasn't voting for Grover. It is a smart move for a wolf to do at that point. Knowing that Grover was going to come up a villager and making sure that you were not a part of it.

[britrock88]

You multiply the probabilities of players holding items by the probabilities of selecting those players. Those are independent probabilities...

[britrock88]

Anyway, my strongest reads for good are Vaimes and Raven, who seem to be among the least popular surviving players.

[britrock88]

vote cheekimonk

[Zinto]

I also hate the exchange that Coffee and Vaimes are not going to vote for each other because they are Aiel and it is their secondary goal. That is great and all if we aren't close to end game but I don't think it makes sense at this point.

[cheekimonk]

Then take the math away. Vaimes picked the one player being targeted for NK and stole the item that would have prevented said target from being killed. I say it's 0.9% likely that was chance, but eleventy-billion times awfully suspicious. Objective or subjective...take your pick and vote.

[britrock88]

Come on. It's a 1 in 12 chance. Lucky coincidence. You're ginning the math to make a case on a good.

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [3] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[Raven]

I agree cheeki's math is wrong, but it's been a long time since I took a stats course. He says his own prob of finding an item is 16% but I believe it's actually 40%.

Not exactly positive on vaimes prob of picking an item off the NK, but it's higher than .9%. He likely made the same mistake that he did in his previous math on himself. To his credit, it's still a very low number. But again I agree with Brit that they are independent.

[cheekimonk]

brit, I'm not getting into a geek fight with you, the players having items and choosing a player who has an item are not independent when the final outcome being calculated is the probability of one player choosing a player who actually has an item. Vote as you will.

[Zinto]

vote coffee

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [3] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [2] - Raven (737), Zinto (923)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[Zinto]

I don't feel good about coffee at all. He has pretty much just repeated that the wolves spread their votes out on day one and that is where we should be voting. I hate his exchange about not voting for fellow Aiel because it doesn't help us out at this point

[Raven]

Cheek, write down the numbers 1-10. Circle 4 of them (they each have an item). Close your eyes and pick one. There's a 40% chance you pick correctly.
This of course assumes no one holds multiple items.

[Zinto]

I will probably have to move for self defense soon but I really feel life coffee is a baddie

[Zinto]

I think we are getting a little caught up in the numbers here hahaha

[cheekimonk]

It is, indeed, a 1-in-10 (you counted available players given the info incorrectly) to choose a specific player (i.e., Vaimes choosing Chief, period). However, the pool of players to choose from have a low probability that they would have one of the 4 items - 3 in Vaimes case because he already had an artifact. So, it's not the probability of Vaimes choosing Chief. It's the probability of Chief actually having an item AND being chosen by Vaimes. Then factor in the probability of Chief having an item, being chosen by Vaimes, AND being chosen for NK.

fin

[Raven]

Zinto, what's your feeling on vaimes/cheeki?

[cheekimonk]

Zinto? Whom I've already said is likely Dark? Can't wait to read his answer...

[cheekimonk]

Again, ignore the numbers if you want. It's [i]x[/] probable, but bagoogily

[timmae]

Question for anyone who knows the books... what roles does the blue ajah play and/or what powers do they have? I still suspect that the blue ajah is indeed our black ajah (there has to be one since it is mentioned in the ruleset, right?). I was hoping for a counter claim for this to emerge but I think the blue is on to what would happen and instead chooses to remain silent. I don't know where to go from here really.

[cheekimonk]

...sorry, TapaTalk.

...bagoogily times suspicious.

[Raven]

I was doing the math you did on yourself which you claimed was 16%, but it's not it's 40%. I wasn't doing the math on Vaimes. But if your math on yourself is wrong, then your math on Vaimes is likely also wrong.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Raven

Zinto, what's your feeling on vaimes/cheeki?

I don't like how Vaimes was pretty UTR until he could start pushing trust from the results of the Grover lynch. He was doing so even before the results were known. Why wouldn't you push for trust if you knew the village was about to blow a lynch.

Cheeki on the other hand I don't have a great read for. I thought for sure Grover was a wolf thus almost assuring that he was good. Other than the item exchange that he is having now I don't remember much more of what he has done.

[Raven]

Just a side conversation while we're waiting on things to shape up here

[path12]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Narc and I have previously stated our ability for today (Narc's totally unavailable, I'm traveling and checking in daily). Pings to those who have questioned us since then (CW and Path).

Apologies for forgetting that one post in the thousand in the thread. I did remember you were traveling during the week but for some reason thought that was over. I don't remember Narc's at all but that is on me.

[cheekimonk]

The math on myself is not wrong either. It would be if the dispersal of items wasn't random from the players' perspective, but it was random. Your calculations oversimplify the circumstance.

[path12]

Originally Posted by britrock88

At this point, I'm inclined to thing that cheeki is emboldened by having survived the lynch with Grover. Someone else pointed out how many evil might have piled on to Grover that day, and I'm inclined to think that they may have gone all-out to do so if cheeki has an important role... Such as the Forsaken.

I know much less about the theme than others of you, so feel free to disabuse me.

I was questioning him on the percentages because I know I've seen weird shit happen when running games that wasn't expected because of low probability.

But the thing with him is the admission of having the Ter'Angreal and wanting to find where to place it reads good to me. So I'm leaning OK with him.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by timmae

Question for anyone who knows the books... what roles does the blue ajah play and/or what powers do they have? I still suspect that the blue ajah is indeed our black ajah (there has to be one since it is mentioned in the ruleset, right?). I was hoping for a counter claim for this to emerge but I think the blue is on to what would happen and instead chooses to remain silent. I don't know where to go from here really.

Among other things the blue ajah secretly found the Dragon Reborn.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

Among other things the blue ajah secretly found the Dragon Reborn.

Well, shit.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I don't feel good about coffee at all. He has pretty much just repeated that the wolves spread their votes out on day one and that is where we should be voting. I hate his exchange about not voting for fellow Aiel because it doesn't help us out at this point

I didn't like that either. I'm not trying to bond with the other Illian, matter of fact helped lynch one of them. And day 1 votes mean little to me.

[Zinto]

Well I don't think I can or should wait any longer to....

[path12]

Going with the person I have the better town read from.

VOTE VAIMES

[Zinto]

unvote coffee
vote Vaimes

[path12]

Nope, changed my mind.

UNVOTE VAIMES
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote

Vaimes [5] - Cheekimonk (760), Glengoyne (820), Timmae (874), Path (945), Zinto (946)
Zinto [2] - Coffee Warlord (871), Vaimes (878)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Cheekimonk [1] - Britrock (916)

[Zinto]

I would ask for a two vote cushion so that there isn't any shenanigans

[Shoveler]

TEN MINUTE WARNING