WW XCIX: Seville High, Book Two: The Janitor Lives!!! Game Over - Blakekin Win!!!!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Why woudl the BG come out...... this is solidifying your wlfiness! your fishing for a BG reveal that makes no sense!

If he has a wolf he should come out.

I'm not fishing at all - I'm trying to make sense of the information we have to play with. In a shortened (for today) time frame.

I'm leaving my vote on Jackal only because it helps us learn more about yesterday but I think the chances are damn high that you are both wolves. I'm just about positive that one of you is, and you certainly are not making me feel any better about the possibility of you being a villager this morning.

[hoopsguy]

Off to catch my flight - hope that the villagers have a good day. We're overdue for one.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Clap, you still have not answered the question I've asked - why do you distrust me more than Jackal? What is the separator for you?

This kind of information starts to become important down the stretch ... having some justification for your votes is helpful in determining your sincerity of purpose.

I distrust you more, because you have said a number of things that set really wrong with me.

A. Dissmising any possibility of EFs reveal (bad play as it was)
B. suggesting the BG should reveal so you can night kill him.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If he has a wolf he should come out.

I'm not fishing at all - I'm trying to make sense of the information we have to play with. In a shortened (for today) time frame.

I'm leaving my vote on Jackal only because it helps us learn more about yesterday but I think the chances are damn high that you are both wolves. I'm just about positive that one of you is, and you certainly are not making me feel any better about the possibility of you being a villager this morning.

BG blocks dont usually come up with who the wolf is......

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Off to catch my flight - hope that the villagers have a good day. We're overdue for one.

well keep the right coast warm for you!

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

List of Roles:

Guard – During the even numbered chapters, submit to me the name of any player. During that chapter, no Blakekin can get to the person, but other people can. If you successfully block a Blakekin, you will know, but you will not be told who you blocked. The target will not be informed. The Blakekin will know that they were blocked but not by who. You may not guard the same person on two consecutive nights.

If there was a BG block, they won't get to find out who the attacker was...

[Abe Sargent]

Morning all

[Abe Sargent]

Offically we'll go with 10 pm tonight, and then the next deadline not until Sunday evenimng.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK - hopefully we had a bodyguard block last night. That would make the day easier, obviously.

Is there any other way that there would be no night-kill? We would have been told if the Diseased had been night-killed, and I can't believe that the wolves would voluntarily pass on a night-kill. There's a chance that the Drug Abuser could have been a bodyguard for the night, I suppose...

MartinD - Vote for Hoops on D4, where would he have gone if he was around near deadline? Would love to see him pick up where JAG left off with vote analysis, as he has shown some inclination to think along those lines in previous games. Mild suspicion.

I'll do my best, but can't guarantee that I'll be doing much straight thinking today - still not feeling right (tried to go to work, but had to come home at lunchtime...)

[PurdueBrad]

I'm throwing in a placeholder for now. I'm debating between him and Jackal, so I'll be doing a ton of re-reading today. This is where I'm at now...

vote Hoopsguy

[The Jackal]

I'll be interested to see what happens with Schmidty/Norm, I think there has to be a wolf in that pair.

I will be around to see what discussion is generated today, I'm not dead set that hoops needs to be the target.

It looks like the argument against either hoops or I is that we voted for Pass on day 1, and along with clap are the only ones alive who did so, correct?

I'm not sure we shouldn't be focusing on the late switches the last two deadlines, but to get a vote out there:

VOTE HOOPS

Puts hoops in a hole but there's a lot of hours left. At this point I don't know if I find it more likely that clap or hoops is a wolf, if we're positive that there had to have been one wolf on Pass (which I think is a fairly smart percentages game, but we shouldn't accept this as absolute).

[The Jackal]

As far as the BG revealing, I think it's up to that person whether they think a more positive impact will be expanding the COT or remaining hidden and trying to extend the game with blocks.

[TheNorm]

Placeholder for now, can't guarantee I'll be around much later today.

Vote Hoopsguy

As for suspicion on me, I'll just paraphrase Schmidty and say 'I don't really care anymore, I won't be around much this weekend, blah blah blah'...

[claphamsa]

so everyone is voting hoops?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

so everyone is voting hoops?

With their placeholders, at least

[The Jackal]

I just noticed this forum just went past 200k posts, not sure if it was mentioned elsewhere, but damn.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

At this point I don't know if I find it more likely that clap or hoops is a wolf, if we're positive that there had to have been one wolf on Pass (which I think is a fairly smart percentages game, but we shouldn't accept this as absolute).

Actually, thinking about this, I may want to swing this an entirely new direction. I think we can also assume that there was probably a wolf on Danny as well, and there are only two uncleared players left there, as opposed to three uncleared players left on Pass. So we've got a 1/2 shot on the Danny voters and a 1/3 shot on the Pass voters.

I will, for now

unvote Hoops

vote the Norm

[The Jackal]

unvote hoops

vote norm

I'll definitely see if it gets some traction, because your numbers do make sense PB.

[lerriuqs]

Right now my trust list is as follows:

Trust - PB

Don't trust - Jackal, norm, clap - just something about the approaches they're taking isn't sitting right with me...

Leaning towards trusting - hoops

No idea - the rest.

I like going a different route today as well...

Vote thenorm

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Actually, thinking about this, I may want to swing this an entirely new direction. I think we can also assume that there was probably a wolf on Danny as well, and there are only two uncleared players left there, as opposed to three uncleared players left on Pass. So we've got a 1/2 shot on the Danny voters and a 1/3 shot on the Pass voters.

I will, for now

unvote Hoops

vote the Norm

What if there were two wolves on Pass and none on Danny. I know I am clear so that leaves the Norm but why would there be a wolf on Danny? I mean I think we have taken all the liekly candidates off of him. Is Norms position implicating? Just talking this out..

[claphamsa]

well that was interesting.

[MartinD]

Vote count (up to 920):

hoopsguy: 3- nfg22 (883), claphamsa (887), TheNorm (913)
The Jackal: 1 - hoopsguy (886)
TheNorm: 3 - PurdueBrad (917), The Jackal (918), lerriuqs (919)

4 votes to come...

[Schmidty]

Good morning.

You all know where I'm going:

VOTE TheNORM

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by nfg22

What if there were two wolves on Pass and none on Danny. I know I am clear so that leaves the Norm but why would there be a wolf on Danny? I mean I think we have taken all the liekly candidates off of him. Is Norms position implicating? Just talking this out..

Yeah, I'm wondering it as well nfg, but right now, it makes more sense than possibly offing Hoops or Jackal (both valuable villagers if good) wrongly.

I, at the very least, don't mind a run off between Norm and somebody else rather than a repeat of yesterday with one less candidate.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Yeah, I'm wondering it as well nfg, but right now, it makes more sense than possibly offing Hoops or Jackal (both valuable villagers if good) wrongly.

I, at the very least, don't mind a run off between Norm and somebody else rather than a repeat of yesterday with one less candidate.

Im all down for going The Norm. I dont have a read on him. I think that also hoops and Jackal make great wolves. As you can tell I have been gunning for hoops for a while and I think he is bonafide wolf but your idea is very good if your conviced the wolves had one on Danny.

[nfg22]

Vote count (up to 923):

hoopsguy: 3- nfg22 (883), claphamsa (887), TheNorm (913)
The Jackal: 1 - hoopsguy (886)
TheNorm: 4 - PurdueBrad (917), The Jackal (918), lerriuqs (919) Schmidty (923)

[Poli]

Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng!

[nfg22]

guys...im out for work and wont be back till after deadline...have a good day and get soem wolves...

[ntndeacon]

Both candidates look good to me. Unfortunately I shant vote today. If I could, I would have at least at the start leaned toward hoops. This plan involving TheNorm is a good one though.

[claphamsa]

shant vote?

[claphamsa]

so you hit on the conciencious obector? interetsting.... who has missed votes? anyone? anyone?

[claphamsa]

someone? anyone? this could be big.... if someone has missed votes i would be comfortable upping the COT, and if they havent.... then NTN is.... crazy?

[claphamsa]

ok ntn and norm issed day2

no one missed 3
no one missed 4.......

[claphamsa]

so ntn is abusing a role that is not in the game....

[ntndeacon]

No I am only saying that I picked up the role for today. Since I voted yesterday I can not vote today.

[ntndeacon]

And I like my use of shan't.

[ntndeacon]

And clap this does fit into my role that has been figured out. I am the drug addict.

[TheNorm]

Go for it then...your mistake. I'm about as vanilla it can get in this game and you still want to go that way, have at it.
I've already explained my reasons for my vote and don't feel the need to do it again.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

ok ntn and norm issed day2

no one missed 3
no one missed 4.......

I had actually thought that Norm was the Objector until he put down his late vote last night. One of the reasons I'm on Norm is that it then became a role that wasn't in the game but a day 2 no vote and he waited to vote until he was able to help seal JAG's coffin made me think he was setting up an objector reveal.

That being said, if Norm is a wolf, I think Jackal is too. Sorry Jackal, I'll lay out that logic when we find out what Norm really is.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I had actually thought that Norm was the Objector until he put down his late vote last night. One of the reasons I'm on Norm is that it then became a role that wasn't in the game but a day 2 no vote and he waited to vote until he was able to help seal JAG's coffin made me think he was setting up an objector reveal but broke off of it to help keep Jackal alive.

That being said, if Norm is a wolf, I think Jackal is too. Sorry Jackal, I'll lay out that logic when we find out what Norm really is.

See bold for clarification on previous post.

[hoopsguy]

OK, if the idea is to test TheNorm because you believe that there is a wolf that was on Danny on Day 1 then the person you should be lining him up against is NFG22 - those were the two guys that were on him.

If you are going to pair me off with someone then make it one of the other people on Pass from Day 1 - either Jackal or Clap. At this point I honestly don't care which of them you choose since I don't have any hard info on one versus the other. But with Jackal we learn something from the vote yesterday. So that is my choice today and I think the one that helps the most.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - just a quick check-in from my brothers place prior to hitting the soccer game tonight. If people have questions, please ask them quickly.

[TheNorm]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Good morning.

You all know where I'm going:

VOTE TheNORM

Yep--blind leading the blind.

[hoopsguy]

Also, if you are considering me for a lynch I do in fact have a role - I'm not going to claim vanilla villager. Obviously you would learn the role if you choose to lynch me, but I'm not going to reveal it now and I'm certainly not going to be around tonight leading up to deadline to give a reveal.

[MartinD]

Looks like a two-horse race today, although it's still early enough for The Jackal (or someone else) to become a contender if there's a late run...

Hoopsguy: Has been playing 'helpful villager', with quite a lot of solid analysis. Won a coin-flip to avoid being lynched in Chapter 3 (Day 2).
Votes: Chapter 1: Passacaglia (confirmed villager)
Chapter 3: Passacaglia (confirmed villager) in self-defence
Chapter 5: EagleFan (confirmed villager)
Chapter 7: The Jackal (not known)

Voting record is obviously not good, but there aren't many people out there with good records at this point, with only one Blakekin found so far.

TheNorm: Relatively quiet so far, so harder to get a good read.
Votes: Chapter 1: Danny (confirmed Unknown - Blakekin)
Chapter 3: No vote
Chapter 5: ntndeacon (not known)
Chapter 7: JAG (confirmed villager) - last vote, when vote count was 5-4

The Day 1 vote looks good on the surface, but there's at least the possibility that at least one wolf voted for Danny - losing a Blakekin, yes, but with the potential upside of gaining trust. (That said, his Day 1 vote was RP-based...)

The Jackal: Very active poster, but not always providing much information - a lot of his posts have been a bit negative or defensive. There has been some good analysis in there, though.
Votes: Chapter 1: Passacaglia (confirmed villager)
Chapter 3: hoopsguy (not known)
Chapter 5: ntndeacon (not known)
Chapter 7: JAG (known villager) in self-defence

Not much to be taken from this - certainly not enough to make me think that it's worth trying to start a run on him with this many votes already out there, and two other candidates with more votes that have somewhat similar levels of suspicion.

A few thoughts on others:
PurdueBrad: Cleared by the confirmed seer in a game that doesn't appear to have a cunning wolf - about as certain to be one of the good guys as you're going to get while still being alive

ntndeacon: While I can't be sure, I'm fairly comfortable that the various hints he's given mean that he's the Drug Abuser, and one of the good guys - pretty good level of trust.

Schmidty: The deciding vote to lynch the seer/sleuth on Day 3/Chapter 5 does not look good at all, but it's easy to say that in hindsight - unless there's a game mechanic I'm missing, there was no way to know that EagleFan was the Sleuth until his reveal, and that was no guarantee. (The only possibility I'm seeing is potential unknown powers of the Lone Blakekin role, but it's a huge reach to go from 'separate set of abilities' to 'Schmidty knew that EagleFan was the seer when he cast his vote'.) Suspicious, but only a little at this point.

lerriuqs: Very quiet, but he does tend towards being one of the less active players, and did have other things going on early in the game. Keeping quiet is a good way to avoid attention, though, so I do have some mild suspicion at this point - that might change, though, if there's more backwards squirrel activity going forward.
(Yes, I do realise the irony of me commenting on another player being on the quiet side... )


One thing that hasn't had a lot of attention so far - the people targeted by the Slut:

People claiming to have been enslutted:
Night 1/Chapter 2: EagleFan (295)
Night 2/Chapter 4: PurdueBrad (436)
Night 3/Chapter 6: hoopsguy (619)
Night 4/Chapter 8: lerriuqs (882)

Not sure if there's much value in this (as it's possible that the Blakekin might have targetted one of their own to try to build trust), but thought that it was worth throwing out there as additional information.

[MartinD]

One advantage of not feeling too good - means that I don't use up most of my free time between pounding the streets on a training run or working on my golf game, so I have a bit more time to spend on WW... (That's assuming that I'm thinking straight, of course, which definitely wasn't the case last night - am feeling a little better today, though).

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I just noticed this forum just went past 200k posts, not sure if it was mentioned elsewhere, but damn.

Awesome!

[MartinD]

I suppose that I should put a vote out there - probably about the only thing I didn't do in my earlier post!

While my votes have been on hoopsguy for the last few days, I can see the case for voting for TheNorm - it seems fairly likely that the wolves will have tried to 'hide' a vote on Danny on Day 1.

VOTE THENORM

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

And clap this does fit into my role that has been figured out. I am the drug addict.

yes it does... except you only pick up roles from people in game, right?

the roll hat can only vote every other day isnt here... so how did you pick it up?

[claphamsa]

if im missing somehitng let me know!