Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

Assuming there are 3 US (former) military captured, I think the best we can do is tell Putin to treat them like prisoners of war or else we'll escalate how we see fit.

We shouldn't give any concessions (or at least not right now) like not shipping weapons to Ukraine to get them back. Pretty sure they knew the risks and there'll likely be others as this goes on and on and on.

Pretty amazing this is still going on with no end in sight.

There's news blurbs on how Russia is winning the fight in the East, Ukraine needs more weapons etc. My guess is Russia will own a part of Ukraine and dig in. They didn't accomplish their main objective of controlling all of Ukraine but they're going to get their secondary objective of controlling the Eastern part.

[GrantDawg]

I think it will end as a win/lose for Russia. They will expand and take complete control of the east. They will have also successfully damaged Ukraine that will take a generation to recover from. But they will fail in removing the Ukraine government to install a puppet, and will have completely tarnished their reputation as a fighting force. Their military will come out majorly depleted, and there will be no fear of further expansion as NATO will have them completely surrounded and outgunned. It will be a "victory", but will end Putin's dream of a Greater Russia.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think it will end as a win/lose for Russia. They will expand and take complete control of the east. They will have also successfully damaged Ukraine that will take a generation to recover from. But they will fail in removing the Ukraine government to install a puppet, and will have completely tarnished their reputation as a fighting force. Their military will come out majorly depleted, and there will be no fear of further expansion as NATO will have them completely surrounded and outgunned. It will be a "victory", but will end Putin's dream of a Greater Russia.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Optimism for sure. This depends on Ukraine accepting change, and Russia deciding it's ok with it's gains. Because if both of those things don't happen something totally different is going to happen here. The longer this goes on, the closer we get to a "Lusitania Moment". If not for the US, from another country in the region. If Belarus enters the war on a new front, or Moldova comes under attack, who knows where it's going to go?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Optimism for sure. This depends on Ukraine accepting change, and Russia deciding it's ok with it's gains. Because if both of those things don't happen something totally different is going to happen here. The longer this goes on, the closer we get to a "Lusitania Moment". If not for the US, from another country in the region. If Belarus enters the war on a new front, or Moldova comes under attack, who knows where it's going to go?

If Ukraine can't counterattack and take back their eastern territories, then what Ukraine wants is irrelevant.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

If Ukraine can't counterattack and take back their eastern territories, then what Ukraine wants is irrelevant.

I think this is true.

[PilotMan]

Tell that to Ukraine. You're looking at it from a rational outside view, not from the inside and under attack.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Tell that to Ukraine. You're looking at it from a rational outside view, not from the inside and under attack.

Zelensky probably knows the situation better than anyone. Russians aren't going to the leave the territory unless they're forced out or some kind of negotiations take place that gives Russia something they want, for example the dropping of sanctions or something.

[CrimsonFox]

The solution is easy...

Write an essay question in 25 words of less...

"I hate Russia/Ukraine because _____"

best answer wins the war.

Mine:

Spoiler

I hate Russia because they kidnapped Hopper .

[Edward64]

Nice to know some capitalism + patriotism is still alive in Ukraine

Ukrainians Will Write Your Message on Munitions Aimed at Russians for Donations

Ukrainian soldiers raise money by writing custom notes on artillery shells for $40 before firing them at Russians

[Edward64]

2 Harpoons hitting the Russian tug boat.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...zAn0nRDVEkhAwA

[sabotai]

If zombie movies and TV shows have taught us anything, it's that you always double tap.

[GrantDawg]

Lithuania blocking support trains to the Russian naval base in Kalingrad might be the development that pulls NATO into this war. They are just doing what the EU agreed to with their sanctions, but it still very brave for such a small country.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[sterlingice]

Was at Pearl Harbor last weekend and it's striking just how alike the situations are. Japan and the ABCD sanctions (ABCD line - Wikipedia) sound way too similar to what is going on with Moscow and the West now. From the "west" uniting against an "eastern" foe to cutting off raw materials and oil in response to that foe's invasion to the widespread freezing of bank assets to Japan's belief that the west had no business dictating what they do in their part of the world. And this ultimately backed Japan into a corner where they felt that Pearl Harbor was their only option

SI

[Edward64]

We were there the Dec before Covid hit. Pearl Harbor was definitely sobering.

Enjoyed walking through that submarine. Can't believe they lived in such cramped quarters. Today's nuclear submarines must be a mansion by comparison.

[Edward64]

Snopes said it did do a U-turn but it didn't really return to sender (the angle is misleading). Regardless, pretty amazing footage.

Did Video Show Russian Missile 'Boomerang' in Ukraine, Striking Troops Who Launched It? | Snopes.com
https://twitter.com/i/status/1540214406549749766

[Edward64]

Biden in Europe for the G7 summit. Supposedly to also beef up, reinforce support for Ukraine.

Does look like this will drag on and the Russians will retain some control of eastern Ukraine. I'm guessing there really is war weariness (e.g. Civ) right now but it's across the board with Ukraine, western allies, and also Russia. Thinking that Russia will soon hunker down on territories it owns and declare victory.

[GrantDawg]

Interesting:

Arestovich last night said when asked why we are suddenly shooting down so many more Russian cruise missles..
"We have something new".

Like 80% now. Before 15%. https://t.co/AHVa7Upigx

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) July 6, 2022

[Edward64]

Good to see US/NATO weapons (and assume tactics) being field tested.

[Edward64]

Good news conference by Pentagon. Essentially stating we are continuing to support Ukraine with weapons. HIMARs were stressed quite a bit.

Also ...

lock

And most importantly, I would say, for the Russians to know that the Ukrainians are going to be able to continue the fight. Because if the Russians think they can outlast the Ukrainians they need to rethink that because this effort -- we are already pivoting towards thinking about what the Ukrainians will need in the months and years ahead.

I'm going to bet the Ukrainians can continue fighting just as long as the western allies continue to provide support. I doubt Putin can "defeat" Ukraine. I think he'll have to declare victory and consolidate his gains in eastern Ukraine ... essentially stalemate and rebuild for next time.

[Edward64]

HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) is the hot topic right now.

Apparently our US supplied HIMARS has been used effectively to blow up Russian ammo dumps far behind the front lines.

[PilotMan]

War creep...I'm telling you guys, our Lusitania moment is coming.

[Flasch186]

Agreed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

War creep...I'm telling you guys, our Lusitania moment is coming.

I've said this before but there is no way Biden can send billions of dollars in aid and still have Russia win. He's in too deep right now.

I'm not going to say he made the wrong call but it's going to be hard to spend billions of dollars and have nothing to show for it.

[PilotMan]

I don't think it's a win/lose sort of moment. There are certain things that you spend money on because you have no other option. Things you spend money on that you might not see the return, or even recognize the return when you get it. This is one of those things, imo.

[Edward64]

It is like a slow burn with incrementally more and more US & allied involvement - logistics, weaponry, intelligence, training (apparently UK is openly doing a lot of that now).

I really want to believe Ukrainians have the will and determination to continue the fight with western assistance. But can also see where Ukraine loses the war of attrition (of their experienced and effective troops) which will cause a collapse of their defenses. But hey, I can see that happening to Russia also.

5 months into this ...

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I don't think it's a win/lose sort of moment. There are certain things that you spend money on because you have no other option. Things you spend money on that you might not see the return, or even recognize the return when you get it. This is one of those things, imo.

I can guarantee you that Republicans will not let the country see it that way. If Ukraine falls then they'll put the blame squarely on Biden. They'll say he squandered billions of military aid and it's just more proof that Biden doesn't know what he's doing.

[PilotMan]

Oh no doubt. They would say the sky was red if it would help them get votes.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I can guarantee you that Republicans will not let the country see it that way. If Ukraine falls then they'll put the blame squarely on Biden. They'll say he squandered billions of military aid and it's just more proof that Biden doesn't know what he's doing.

IMO if Ukraine falls, then yeah, Biden gets the blame in the US.

If Ukraine fell in 4-8 weeks back in Feb, then Biden could easily say that Russia overwhelmed Ukraine, or Ukrainians not willing to fight.

We are 5 months in. The best and brightest western logistics, intelligence etc. are now coordinating with Ukraine etc. Congress has an open checkbook for military supplies. We probably have some special forces boots on the ground advising etc.

If we cannot win or stalemate this fight, the buck stops with Biden and his selection/approval of military advisors.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'm not going to say he made the wrong call but it's going to be hard to spend billions of dollars and have nothing to show for it.

We've wasted more money making any number of things worse instead of better for decades, the only way this would be different is if you believe there's THAT strong a differentiation made with foreign vs domestic spending.

It's only taxpayer money, they'll just print more.

[Edward64]

Great news. Hope it keeps. Nice win for Turkey also as essentially the cop.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/22/europ...ntl/index.html

Ukraine and Russia have agreed a deal that would allow the resumption of vital grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, a major diplomatic breakthrough aimed at easing a global food crisis sparked by the war, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Friday.
:
As part of the deal signed Friday, grain ships would navigate through a safe corridor in the Black Sea under the direction of Ukrainian pilots, and then pass through the Bosphorus strait -- an important shipping corridor in north-west Turkey -- in order to reach global markets.

Vessels would be inspected before they arrive in Ukraine by Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish officials, to ensure weapons are not being smuggled into Ukraine.

The ships will be monitored by a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) which will be established immediately in Istanbul and include representatives from Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.

Both parties have agreed that there should be no attacks on any of the vessels going from those ports out of territorial waters into the Black Sea by any party

[RainMaker]

Good news if you like hummus.

[JPhillips]

I don't trust the Russians, but I'm unsure what their angle is here.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't trust the Russians, but I'm unsure what their angle is here.

They will create some mythical transgression (Grain ships held cannabis cartridges intended for smuggling to Britney Griner) so they had no recourse but to sink the ships, bomb the trucking convoys and take out two day cares and a movie theater as well.

[Edward64]

Supposedly some 1K+ Russians have been surrounded and somewhat confirmed by Ukraine government. All the news have been one sided so hard to really understand if this is "real" or the ramifications.

Would be nice if the Pentagon weighed in with weekly/bi-weekly briefings (or maybe they do but just not reported by MSM?) and let us know things on the ground (in addition to what military weapons & supplies we are sending over there). But I guess, understandably, they don't.

The inevitable behind-the-scenes book by some General will be interesting reading.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

They will create some mythical transgression (Grain ships held cannabis cartridges intended for smuggling to Britney Griner) so they had no recourse but to sink the ships, bomb the trucking convoys and take out two day cares and a movie theater as well.

Well

Russia hits Ukraine's Black Sea port in wake of grain deal

[JPhillips]

I'm not sure how pissing off Turkey helps the Russians, but this was certainly expected, if not expected so soon after the agreement.

[Edward64]

Starting to become real money now at $8.2B but still a good deal to better understand Russian tactics, weapons, rally the allies and bring us closer together, no US military lives lost (that we know of), keep Ukraine semi-independent, and ultimately make Russia a pariah for the next X years.

(It'll probably boost US weapons sales also with allies and frenemies).

I didn't find a summary of what EU/Nato $ are but would like to know. Because they've been in the news the most, I assume US, UK, Poland, Germany are the big contributors.

U.S. to send Ukraine additional $270 million in military aid

The U.S. will send Ukraine an additional $270 million in military assistance to help the country thwart Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion, John Kirby, the White House National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications, announced Friday.

Why it matters: The new aid package, which brings the U.S. total security assistance to Ukraine to $8.2 billion since the start of the Biden administration, will include four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 36,000 ammunition rounds for howitzer artillery pieces and 580 additional loitering munition drones.

It's the U.S.'s 16th drawdown military aid package to Ukraine since the start of Russia's invasion and comes as Moscow's offensive in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine has recently slowed after making costly gains over the past several months

[PilotMan]

I could see Europe aggressively accelerate their war stance if the overall economy starts to falter. Fuckery with the global food supply and an energy crisis could pull the entire region in eventually. As the simple desperation for something different loosens those anti-war constraints when you have a common enemy to point it against.

[Edward64]

Pretty cool.

Crowd sings to wounded Ukrainian soldiers arriving in Minnesota to be fitted for prosthetic limbs

https://youtu.be/FbMyLDJ0JsA

[Edward64]

My guess is EU will have a harder time than the US in the next several months economically and through winter.

Surprised the natural gas wasn't cut off even earlier but I'm sure Russia had their strategic interest/timing in mind. Their enemies have increased type & quantity of military weapons to Ukraine, and there is no doubt this is a war by proxy ... effectively Russia is at war with the western allies.

US has a lot of natural gas. It would be great if we can supply the EU but suspect logistics & transportation makes that a limited option in the near future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/puti...rationing.html

Europe’s descent into an economic contraction looks to have been confirmed with Russia squeezing natural gas supplies to the bloc and heavy industry facing tough rationing in the coming months.

Just days after Europeans breathed a sigh of relief as Russian gas giant Gazprom announced that it would resume supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, it then announced Monday that flows would be reduced yet again.

The announcement, with Gazprom saying it would be for maintenance of a turbine along the pipeline, was greeted with incredulity and condemnation in Europe.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the move — which will see flows to Germany fall to 20% of its capacity from an already low level of 40% — was tantamount to a “gas war” with Europe. Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the excuse that maintenance was the reason for the supply cut was a “farce.”

It puts Europe in a tricky situation as it contends with rampant inflation, the war in Ukraine and an already troubled supply chain following the Covid-19 pandemic.

[Edward64]

Supposedly a switchblade drone attack vs Russians.

I guess it accomplished it's mission but I'm somewhat disappointed by the blast, seem smaller than I would have thought. But I clearly know nothing here.

https://youtu.be/U5b6Ir_jVQg

[Edward64]

Probably a nothing burger considering the source ...

This would be a horrendous escalation but the old Avalon Hill grognard (and Red Dawn(s) fan) in me would find this absolutely fascinating to see how it plays out.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...8ad2d9fa38dff0

Up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Vladimir Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine, according to Russian reports.

A leading defence expert in Moscow, reserve colonel Igor Korotchenko, told state TV: “We shouldn’t be shy in accepting the hand extended to us by Kim Jong-un.”

North Korea has made it clear through “diplomatic channels” that as well as providing builders to repair war damage, it is ready to supply a vast fighting force, reported Regnum news agency.

They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.

“The country is ready to transfer up to 100,000 of its soldiers to Donbas,” said the report by the pro-Kremlin news agency.

“Pyongyang will be able to transfer its tactical units to Donbas.”

In return, grain and energy would be supplied to Kim’s stricken economy.

The claim was seized on by Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of Russia’s National Defence journal on Rossiya 1 channel, who said: “There are reports that 100,000 North Korean volunteers are prepared to come and take part in the conflict.”

[sterlingice]

Meanwhile, Ukraine has fired missiles at a Russian air base 200 km into Crimea following recent attacks on anti-air batteries. Or, at least, that's the speculation. Russia claims they were blowing stuff up on their own base.





SI

[Edward64]

Nice if true. Hopefully there are more military targets in Crimea they can target.

[Edward64]

Funny stuff.

Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar has said on Facebook.

"About the fire at the Saki airfield near the village of Novofedorivka in Crimea temporarily occupied by Russia. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine cannot establish the cause of the fire, but once again reminds you about fire safety rules and the ban on smoking in improper places," she said.

If I was a murderer rotting away in a Russian jail, this would be very appealing to me.

"They will accept murderers, but not rapists, pedophiles, extremists, or terrorists", he said. "Amnesty or a pardon in six months is on offer. Somebody talks about 100,000 rubles a month, another 200,000. Everything is different." He said the offer was made when unidentified men, believed to be part of a private military contractor's firm, came to the prison in the first half of July, and that acceptance into the program would lead to two weeks of training in the Rostov region in southern Russia.

[Groundhog]

Murderers released from some of the worst prisons in the world, given 2 weeks training, and sent into combat. What's the worst that could happen.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Murderers released from some of the worst prisons in the world, given 2 weeks training, and sent into combat. What's the worst that could happen.

Maybe all the raping and murdering of citizens is actually a "feature" and not a "bug" with this invasion.

[Edward64]

FWIW, a reddit sub with pics & videos from both Ukrainian and Russian POV.

Ukraine/Russia War Report

[Edward64]

The Wagner group HQ in the Luhansk region was destroyed. Ukraine was able to identify where the HQ was based on a published pic of operators/mercenaries standing close/in front of it and ... there was a sign with the address visible in the pic.

Pics show the building demolished but no idea on casualties. Not a lot of OpSec there.

Wagner base in Luhansk hit: Social media videos geolocated to the Russian-occupied town of Popasna show that a base used by the Wagner military contractors was hit by artillery or rocket fire at the weekend. The Wagner group of private military contractors has played an active role in the fighting in Donbas, often deployed as infantry to advance on towns from which Ukrainian forces have withdrawn. The paramilitary group is sponsored by Russia.

Makes me wonder if there are US Blackwater-like mercenaries in Ukraine, secretly "funded" in a round about way by US government. I'm going to guess yes.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The Wagner group HQ in the Luhansk region was destroyed. Ukraine was able to identify where the HQ was based on a published pic of operators/mercenaries standing close/in front of it and ... there was a sign with the address visible in the pic.

Pics show the building demolished but no idea on casualties. Not a lot of OpSec there.



Makes me wonder if there are US Blackwater-like mercenaries in Ukraine, secretly "funded" in a round about way by US government. I'm going to guess yes.

Me, too. Or something like that.