2024 NFL Offseason, Free Agency, and Draft Talk

[CrimsonFox]

ex-Bears/Steelers/Dolphins WR Chase Claypool has signed with the Bills

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This. "Leaving a scene of an accident with injuries" should carry the same consequences as a third DUI.

this article has video footage of both the crash AND him and his friends leaving the scene.

https://foxsportsradio.iheart.com/fe...e-is-revealed/

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

This. "Leaving a scene of an accident with injuries" should carry the same consequences as a third DUI.

Agree. I think leaving the scene in general should be treated like a DUI. We charge people with DUI if they refuse the breathalyzer, but we don't if they run away and sober up?

I remember Lance Briggs did something like this years ago in Chicago.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2992847

[flere-imsaho]

DUI is one of those things I don't think we punish hard enough because too many rich white guys worry they could easily get caught for it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Agree. I think leaving the scene in general should be treated like a DUI. We charge people with DUI if they refuse the breathalyzer, but we don't if they run away and sober up?

I remember Lance Briggs did something like this years ago in Chicago.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2992847

I remember that. For a while the next morning, the story on the radio was "they found his car by the freeway" like they didn't want to say what happened, but everyone could put 2 and 2 together.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

To echo some of the stuff that QS wrote, the fact of the matter is that, as we have discussed upthread and in previous threads, it is a) very difficult to obtain a good-to-elite QB and b) having a good-to-elite QB has become pretty much a requirement to getting to the postseason and potentially doing well in the postseason.

The number of QBs who can lift an average team or below-average offensive unit (with a competent defensive unit) into the playoffs is probably in the single digits. The number of QBs who can do the same when paired with a stellar OC or HC operating as an OC (e.g. McVay or McDaniel) is also in the single digits.

When I did my tiering exercise, you basically get through, generously, 16 QBs before you get to the "fuck it, start tanking" tier.

So I think that if you're a team that's drafting and has a need for a QB either now or potentially in the next few years (see the Favre & Rodgers situations), and you come across a candidate that you think has the chance to be competent-to-good (with caveats of course around teams' ability to judge talent) you should just take him, regardless of draft position. The position is simply that important.

Anyway, I'm probably super wrong, but I've spent far too much time thinking about this on my commute and so you all get to be the beneficiaries of that lol.

This was basically my point. I just think quarterback is so important in today's NFL that if your staff - between scouts and coaches - comes to the consensus that a player could be in that Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lamar tier (or even Herbert, Dak territory) and you don't have an otherwise long-term solution at quarterback, then you take that player.

Now, will Atlanta be correct in their assessment about Penix? Probably not, but they have to trust their own evaluation process.

In an ideal world, they wouldn't have signed Cousins. As much as I like Cousins, he's never been named to the All-Pro team nor has he ever garnered any MVP or OPOY votes. So giving a soon to be 36-year-old quarterback coming off Achilles surgery that contract was debatable given the track record of quarterbacks at that age.

If their plan was always to sign Cousins and draft who they felt was the best quarterback available, then they're idiots. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt though that it was a situation where they never initially intended to draft a QB and simply fell in love with a player as they continued to get closer to the draft. And again, I think they have to trust their own evaluation. So assuming they have Penix scouted as a top-tier quarterback - and not just the best QB available - then I don't have a problem with the process of spending the pick on your potential long-term franchise QB.

In the same vein, and I know this seems somewhat contradictory, but I have no problem with the fact that the Giants didn't take a quarterback, despite them not having a long term answer at the position. If their assessment is that McCarthy/Penix/Nix don't have that elite tier potential, then they shouldn't be reaching there. At the end of the day, teams have to trust their own evaluations.

[CrimsonFox]

Rashee Rice: WR under investigation for assault, police say | wfaa.com

Rice reported to have hit a photographer.

And he's being sued twice for the crash too.

And...all 8 counts he's charged with are felonies.

I don't see how he doesn't go to jail for at least a year.

[RainMaker]

I wonder if the Chiefs don't just cut him soon.

[Danny]

Chiefs are amazing at winning but Im not sure they give a crap about ethics and character.

[CrimsonFox]

Pee Wee Jarrett is available again!

[CrimsonFox]

If someone is signed as an UDFA, and then is later cut. Do they get the total amount of money they signed for? Or do they only get paid for the amount of time with the organization?

[Brian Swartz]

Depends on the contract.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

If someone is signed as an UDFA, and then is later cut. Do they get the total amount of money they signed for? Or do they only get paid for the amount of time with the organization?

The latter. I think there have been some UDFA contracts with guaranteed money, but they are pretty rare.

[stevew]

They would get the guaranteed money and then they probably also get a certain amount of money for each week that they practice with the team in the off-season. It’s most likely in the hundreds of dollars range.

[GrantDawg]

The signing bonus is guaranteed. Some players get up to $70k, but most guys that are in some kind of demand get in the $10-20k neighborhood. There is a team cap on UDFA signing bonuses at around $180k.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[CrimsonFox]

Okay let me rephrase then.

Guys that aren't big names or high in the draft.
I mean really if they were undrafted they weren't high anyway.

What brought up this question was that I've read that some UDFAs have been cut already!

I can't imagine UDFA contracts having any sort of bonus signing if they are still having to "audition" for the team to see if they make it!

[CrimsonFox]

also Grant, could you be my agent and get me signed to a team please?
Just get me the lowest signing bonus and I'll be good. Then I'll audition and....take my money...

[RainMaker]

From my understanding, they almost all sign for the league minimum. That contract has no guaranteed money. Now teams do offer a signing bonus which is guaranteed but is usually small (like $20k). The higher sought after UDFAs can command 6 figure bonuses though.

As for players being cut, my guess is they were either not given a signing bonus or a small one where $10k is not altering your cap number much at all. And they likely needed to cut the person because they wanted to sign someone else and needed the roster slot.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

And they likely needed to cut the person because they wanted to sign someone else and needed the roster slot.

yeah, those crazy chiefs

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

What brought up this question was that I've read that some UDFAs have been cut already!

I can't imagine UDFA contracts having any sort of bonus signing if they are still having to "audition" for the team to see if they make it!

It's probably also worth mentioning that there's still a roster limit for NFL teams, even during the offseason (though it is significantly expanded), so any team that has already at that limit would have to cut someone before they could sign anybody else.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Okay let me rephrase then.

Guys that aren't big names or high in the draft.
I mean really if they were undrafted they weren't high anyway.

What brought up this question was that I've read that some UDFAs have been cut already!

I can't imagine UDFA contracts having any sort of bonus signing if they are still having to "audition" for the team to see if they make it!

Most guys that simply get "camp invites" aren't getting much in the way of bonus money. Those are the guys you are seeing getting cut. Teams have so many roster spots to fill, and they need certain numbers in each position to fill out practice squads to scrimmage against. That's why teams right now will have at least 4 if not 5 quarterbacks. They are mostly practice arms to throw passes in inter-mural scrimmages.
But there are plenty of guys that teams scramble for that are un-drafted. Every team will usually end up with a couple of those guys hanging on the roster. Sometimes it is easier to make a team as an UDFA than as a low round draft pick. The more in demand guys are at least very likely to get on practice squads. They are usually guys with either high athleticism but very rough technique, or they lack athleticism but are very fundamentally sound.

[bronconick]

NFL probably tossing Xmas day games on ...Netflix

[weegeebored]

Crazy money for Goff

https://www.si.com/lions-lock-up-jar...n-01hxswhqbasd

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bronconick

NFL probably tossing Xmas day games on ...Netflix

This sucks. I sort of get the Thursday Night shit but it feels like I'll need 3-4 subscriptions on top of cable to watch the NFL.

[CrimsonFox]

They will eventually name teams not after cities and animal mascots but after companies and stream platforms.

Division:

Netflixes
Yahoos
Hulus
Disneys
Peacocks

[stevew]

I just don’t know else who was lining up to give Goff that much money.

[albionmoonlight]

Goff's new deal will make him the NFL's second highest-paid quarterback on a per-year basis. His deal will average $53 million per season, trailing only Joe Burrow ($55 million), and ahead of Justin Herbert ($52.5 million), Lamar Jackson ($52 million) and Jalen Hurts ($51 million). It will effectively set the market for the league's next round of quarterback contracts.

Based on those numbers, it does feel like $45 million is a better fit for Goff.

But I can see two things motivating the Lions' thinking here.

(1) Dak's extension is looming, and he's getting closer to $60/year than $50/year. And you are going to have extensions for Jordan Love, etc. coming up, too. It's generally smart to get in on the front end of the extension train because the numbers always go up.

(2) This is the Lions. They have been a joke for years. And now they are not. And adding this to the St. Brown and Sewell extensions sends the message to the fans and the locker room that they are in it to win it. I like that. You are trying to wash away 50 years of bad karma. You've got to take some bold strokes to do that.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Based on those numbers, it does feel like $45 million is a better fit for Goff.

But I can see two things motivating the Lions' thinking here.

(1) Dak's extension is looming, and he's getting closer to $60/year than $50/year. And you are going to have extensions for Jordan Love, etc. coming up, too. It's generally smart to get in on the front end of the extension train because the numbers always go up.

(2) This is the Lions. They have been a joke for years. And now they are not. And adding this to the St. Brown and Sewell extensions sends the message to the fans and the locker room that they are in it to win it. I like that. You are trying to wash away 50 years of bad karma. You've got to take some bold strokes to do that.

I agree with all of this.

$45 million, or, at most, around $46-48 million felt right for Goff given the type of quarterback he is. He's just limited. He has no mobility and when things aren't perfect - pass rush, weather, etc. - he falls apart, but when things are clicking he's fantastic. He shouldn't be making more money than Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, and that group of quarterbacks, but likely a little more than the Daniel Jones' of the world. The Kirk Cousins deal feels right, given he and Goff seem pretty comparable, though Cousins is older and coming off that Achilles.

Goff's value to the Lions is likely higher than it is to other teams. The team and whole city rallied around him big time last year and it would be very hard to keep what Holmes and Campbell have built going if they let him walk.

I'll ask Chris Spielman all about it when we hangout!

[Swaggs]

Just for fun, if you had to win a playoff game right now, which QBs do we take ahead of Goff?

Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson

Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen

Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow

Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson

Denver Broncos
Jarrett Stidham*
(Drafted Bo Nix)

Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud

Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson

Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence

Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
Las Vegas Raiders

Aidan O’Connell*
(Signed Gardner Minshew)

Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert

Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa

New England Patriots
Jacoby Brissett*
(Drafted Drake Maye)

New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers

Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson
(Traded for Justin Fields)

Tennessee Titans
Will Levis

Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins
(Drafted Michael Penix Jr.)

Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray

Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young

Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams

Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott

Detroit Lions
Jared Goff

Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love

Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford

Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold*
(Drafted J.J. McCarthy)

New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr

New York Giants
Daniel Jones

Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts

San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy

Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield

Washington Commanders
Marcus Mariota*
(Drafted Jayden Daniels)

[thesloppy]

Goff and that OLine are a package deal. With any kind of pressure he turns into a pumpkin, but keep him clean and he can play at the highest level. I'll agree that he's not as good as some of the QBs that are getting paid less, but as mentioned the Lions have managed to sign Sewell and St Brown to extensions as well, so as long as their cap is in good shape & there's no sacrifices to make, why not give Goff his flowers?


The QB pay scale is so fluid these days it's hard to say anything is ridiculous when the ranks might look entirely different in 6 months. I think the Lions made Stafford a top-3 paid QB at one time, for worse results.

[stevew]

I’m taking 9 over Goff

(healthy)Lamar/(Healthy)Burrow/Allen/Mahomes/Purdy/Hurts/Prescott/Stroud/Herbert

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by stevew

I’m taking 9 over Goff

(healthy)Lamar/(Healthy)Burrow/Allen/Mahomes/Purdy/Hurts/Prescott/Stroud/Herbert

I'd put Goff between Purdy and Hurts on that list.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by stevew

I just don’t know else who was lining up to give Goff that much money.

It's one of those weird situations where both sides sort of need each other. Goff is unlikely getting paid that much on the open market. But the Lions are unlikely to find a better QB on the open market and there window is now.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

They will eventually name teams not after cities and animal mascots but after companies and stream platforms.

Division:

Netflixes
Yahoos
Hulus
Disneys
Peacocks

Most of the baseball teams in Japan/Korea have been named like this. Nippon Ham. Toyo(Mazda) Carp. LG Twins. Etc. People would adapt.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I'd put Goff between Purdy and Hurts on that list.

Same

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

I’m taking 9 over Goff

(healthy)Lamar/(Healthy)Burrow/Allen/Mahomes/Purdy/Hurts/Prescott/Stroud/Herbert

This is about where I got, but then I kind of got hung up around Stroud and Herbert. Like, I would trade Goff for either (I still like Lawrence, too - maybe he never quite gets there, but he had such a clusterfuck situation his rookie year, he gets a little more time from me), but if I had to win one game in the playoffs, I might take Goff.

Goff has 4 playoff wins, is only 30 this season, has the pedigree of being #1 overall. I may be nuts, but I can talk myself into him.

[stevew]

I would put Goff in the next group of five. Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tua, Love. If I knew, Rogers was staying healthy, all season and Stafford would be healthy I’m taking both. I know it’s been like a while since Watson was a functioning quarterback, but if you were getting 2020 him I’d have him way up in tiers.

So I don’t know maybe Goff Is actually the fifth or sixth best QB in the league at any given point due to injuries/weirdness/handjob addiction But he could easily be 12th best or something.

It’s a lot of coin for someone who looks like total trash from time to time.

[Brian Swartz]

I agree with Rainmaker on this. The main question is who they are going to get who is going to be better for the Lions right now. I think that's a list with no names on it, if they are going to keep the rest of their team intact. He's their best chance for the next couple of seasons. There's also always weirdness when the cap increases of players who make more than those who were signed under the previous salary cap who are 'better' players.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I agree with Rainmaker on this. The main question is who they are going to get who is going to be better for the Lions right now. I think that's a list with no names on it, if they are going to keep the rest of their team intact. He's their best chance for the next couple of seasons. There's also always weirdness when the cap increases of players who make more than those who were signed under the previous salary cap who are 'better' players.

I guess it is a feature not a bug? It is a really strange system, but that is the case. The best players are often not the best paid players. It is all on when your contract comes up. That relates to all the noise about Cousins making so much money on his contracts. He has always hit the market at the best times to get paid.
As for Goff, there are maybe 13 QB's who are +quality starters at the most important position in the game. That means more than half the teams in the league need an upgrade. No surprise whenever one of those guys are up for a contract it is record-breaking.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by stevew

I would put Goff in the next group of five. Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tua, Love.

I'm taking 12. I'd take all four of these plus everyone off your first list besides Dak so I have him at 13 on my list.

[Honolulu_Blue]

What were the Lions realistic options if they didn't sign Goff?

They could have let him play out the final year of his contract. That would have given them additional data points to assess whether to re-sign him and then either sign him to an extension (at a price point that would almost certainly be above the $53M/year) (note that the Cowboys are getting ripped for waiting so long to sign Dak, which will just make his value go up and up), tag him (not sure what the price would be), or let him walk. The downside of this, is that it would hang over the team all year long and who knows how it would effect Goff and the team.

Maybe they're in a better spot if they do that, but there are still a lot of variables there.

I think we all agree that Goff isn't an elite quarterback and definitely shouldn't be the second highest paid player in the NFL based on talent, skill, etc. That being said, as others have noted, this is how contracts work in the NFL and what other options do the Lions have to actually get better at the position, if they decided not to re-sign Goff?

Unless something really weird happens (DeShaun Watson and that has turned out terrible), no one is trading any of these elite quarterbacks. So, trading for one of these types of players isn't an option.

They really don't get to free agency either. Lamar Jackson was a RFA a year ago, no one signed him, because the Ravens would have just matched any deal and top-end UFAs are rare or when they happen they come with their own risks like Cousins, who is 34 and has that Achilles. So, signing an elite quarterback in free agency isn't really an option either.

So, that leaves drafting one. That's a massive crapshoot. First, one of these elite quarterbacks needs to be available in the draft class. Second, you need to be in a position to be able to draft that player. Third, that player actually needs to reach his full potential. A franchise can be stuck trying to get all of those stars to align for decades, while they wallow in mediocre QB play.

The majority of the elite QBs are top 10 picks. I imagine if Lamar Jackson was coming out of college today, he would be a top 10 pick given how the league has changed since he was drafted.

The Lions window is now. They almost made the Super Bowl last year. They have a really strong roster.

Re-signing Goff was really their best and only realistic option.

Let's hope it works out!

[CrimsonFox]

*goff goff*

[stevew]

Big fuck you to a Christmas Day Weds game at 1pm. As someone who relies on there being as many Sunday at 1 games as possible for work purposes, this completely blows.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The Lions have five prime time games - Rams, Seahawks, Houston, Green Bay and San Francisco, not including Thanksgiving (the Bears). Tough games all around.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by stevew

Big fuck you to a Christmas Day Weds game at 1pm. As someone who relies on there being as many Sunday at 1 games as possible for work purposes, this completely blows.

i mean what else are we gonna do on christmas? talk to each other?

[Thomkal]

Not a fan of the hype around the schedule release, but bonus points to the Chargers for their Sims schedule:


https://twitter.com/chargers/status/...serId=12743780

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Not a fan of the hype around the schedule release, but bonus points to the Chargers for their Sims schedule:


https://twitter.com/chargers/status/...serId=12743780

I've only seen a couple, but I have a hard time seeing anyone beat the Patriots release this year.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I've only seen a couple, but I have a hard time seeing anyone beat the Patriots release this year.

I would have never thought to look that up and watch it, but ya, that was fun.

[albionmoonlight]

AFC 2023 Playoff Teams:
1. Ravens
2. Bills
3. Chiefs
4. Texans
5. Browns
6. Dolphins
7. Steelers

NFC 2023 Playoff Teams:
1. 49ers
2. Cowboys
3. Lions
4. Buccaneers
5. Eagles
6. Rams
7. Packers

Every season, teams we think will be good fall short and teams we don't see coming rise up.

Pick 6-8 of the teams above that you think are least likely to make the playoffs this season. And then what teams you think are most likely to replace them.

[albionmoonlight]

I'll guess that: Bills, Browns, Steelers, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Rams don't make it.

And that they are replaced by Bengals, Chargers, Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals, and Bears.