03-25-2010, 11:18 AM | #901 | |
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This is true and it is possible multiple wolves didn't get a chance to vote but we do know that they would have wanted to save DV so this is the best jumping off point we have today. I would hope everyone recognizes that it wasn't a complete day though. |
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03-25-2010, 11:20 AM | #902 |
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Because yours tied somebody else up with DV when DV was ahead. From the point that Darth got 4 votes, and the lead four people voted for someone else. Thomkal could have voted CF and put him in the lead instead. Lathum could have voted Henry and tied it up. Dubb could have voted CF and put him in the lead. You however voted CF and tied it up. Now granted you had a 4-3-3 situation and the others didn't. But they just have better arguments at this point. I think we have to assume that with Darth in the lead several hours before seeming deadline that one of the people who voted next for someone else was probably a wolf. As I said earlier Dubb is my next suspect RA votes darth 4-3-2 lathum votes cf 4-3-3 bk votes cf 4-4-3 dubb unvotes henry 4-4-2 thomkal votes henry 4-4-3 dubb votes henry 4-4-4 |
03-25-2010, 11:21 AM | #903 | |
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It's certainly not bulletproof, but it's the best arguemnt we have so far I think. I haven't had time to do a full color coded vote history, which might prove illuminating. Other than that the voting stretch I highlighted above is the most information we have I think. |
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03-25-2010, 11:25 AM | #904 |
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Actually looking at what I wrote to BK, his vote doesn't stand out as much to me on analysis. He didn't have any choice but to tie it up. At this point maybe I would rate them all equal: BK, Thomkal, Lathum and Dubb.
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03-25-2010, 11:27 AM | #905 |
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A vote history could surely help, I'd do it but I'm posting on the road from my phone all day
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03-25-2010, 11:29 AM | #906 |
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I will say that the following a known villager vote is a popular way for wolves to avoid having to explain a vote on someone they know is a villager, elevating my suspicion on thomkal, and did dubb say that also?
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03-25-2010, 11:31 AM | #907 |
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FWIW, all drama aside from yesterday I stand behind my theory about Poli and the way he reacted to that theory and my vote will likely go that way unless I need to defend myself with my vote.
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03-25-2010, 11:35 AM | #908 | |
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Yes, and I found Dubb's following more suspicious. He seemed relieved to have a reason to jump back on Henry despite having just unvoted. I posited last night the idea that maybe the wolves knew who CF was, perhaps he got a block in last night. They therefore might have wanted to get in on Henry rather than risk CF revealing and the votes moving to DV. |
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03-25-2010, 11:37 AM | #909 |
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With the scroll of wrath used on Thomkal it doesn't make sense to vote him today. Better to see if his lack of a night action results in anything (and allow him the chance to defend himself).
So I'm voting between Lathum, BK and Dubb. I'm kind of talking myself into switching to Dubb, but I'll wait and see. |
03-25-2010, 11:39 AM | #910 |
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I will also say this, if Dubb is a servant Poli likely was a conversion target and vice versa.
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03-25-2010, 11:40 AM | #911 |
Favored Bitch #1
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Vote Poli
will change if need be |
03-25-2010, 12:27 PM | #912 | |
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The question is when was he blocked from night action? Last night or tonight? If it is tonight, and there are multiple Red Death acting in concert, then there is no clearance at all. If it was last night, then there is some small potential clearing in my mind. But not much. |
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03-25-2010, 12:49 PM | #913 |
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I'm not going to vote Lathum, because I don't think wolf-Lathum would've attempted to bow out. He may have taken a break after but his response to everything yesterday was exactly how I would've been as a villager. As a wolf, I probably would've tried to "use" it somewhat.
That leaves me with a Henry voter (but Thomkal is frozen) or Jackal actually, who did strike me a bit as well vibe-wise. So Dubb, Autumn, and Jackal are on my short list, although I do see why people are looking BK too. This really came down to a coin toss, thus far, between dubb and Jackal. For now, and this isn't meant to be hit and run as I'll be on this afternoon but am afraid of a repeat of the deadline moving again: vote dubb |
03-25-2010, 12:50 PM | #914 |
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I think he said Thomkal couldn't take an action tonight, not last night.
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03-25-2010, 12:53 PM | #915 |
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From my point of view, I felt good about henry after the discussion on D2. I changed my vote late in the game in fact because I felt good about him. Barring new evidence I wasn't going to vote for him D3, so I didn't.
That left me two candidates: DV and CF. I felt worse about CF. I also knew I'd be around for a discussion to progress. If it had been a full day it's entirely possible I'd have changed my vote, just as I did on D2. In fact if in the end it looked like it was going to be DV and Henry I'd probably have voted for DV. |
03-25-2010, 12:59 PM | #916 |
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Where's Poli?
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03-25-2010, 01:10 PM | #917 |
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I'm somewhat astounded that multiple people have me on their shortlist after voting for DV yesterday
vibe votes are used when there is a lack of knowledge on someones voting history and is it wrong for me to feel like I shouldn't be near the top of peoples lists after voting DV yesterday? |
03-25-2010, 01:16 PM | #918 | |
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03-25-2010, 01:16 PM | #919 |
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03-25-2010, 01:20 PM | #920 |
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I believe I had already said I was unlikely to be back pre-deadline and that my vote was sticking, but oh well, guess I can't vibe people the right way even with a good vote, I'll just have to keep guessing right
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03-25-2010, 01:30 PM | #921 | |||
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Thats pretty damn meta-gamey. Quote:
Not sure how I defend myself here against a "coin toss."
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03-25-2010, 01:33 PM | #922 | ||
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If I am a wolf I vote CF. Especially if I know the day is about to end as DV implied the wolves knew and did when he returned to the thread following his death. For better or worse the DV info is out there and I think it would be silly to ignore it at this point.
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03-25-2010, 01:41 PM | #923 |
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If what dubb says is true, I simply don't see how they end the day with 0 wolves on DV. I just don't see it happening.
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03-25-2010, 01:51 PM | #924 | |
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Can you explain this. I guess I just don't see the vote for CF being over the top suspect as you are claiming. How about your vote? You threw the first vote out for Henry, right after the first vote was out for DV. In fact your vote was at post 620, really close to the first DV vote and the next two votes weren't until posts 627 and 651. I would assume the wolves would have wanted a villager on the block after DV drew the first vote of the day, I'm not sure your vote doesn't look the most suspect of all the votes yesterday.
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03-25-2010, 01:52 PM | #925 | |
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I'm voting early to avoid any potential deadline shenanigans.
Vote Autumn
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03-25-2010, 02:30 PM | #926 |
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Pretty sure this is accurate for yesterday's votes:
Danny votes Darth (612)- Darth 1 Autumn votes Henry (620) - Darth 1, Henry 1 Darth votes CF (651) - Darth 1, Henry 1, CF 1 Dubb votes Henry (687) - Darth 1, Henry 2, CF 1 PB votes Darth (705) - Darth 2, Henry 2, CF 1 Jackal votes Darth (707) - Darth 3, Henry 2, CF 1 Henry votes CF (712) - Darth 3, Henry 2, CF 2 ntn votes Henry (714) - Darth 3, Henry 3, CF 2 RA votes Darth (720) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 2 Lathum votes CF (721) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 3 BK votes CF (723) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 4 Dubb unvotes Henry (725) - Darth 4, Henry 2, CF 4 Thomkal votes Henry (726) - Darth 4, Henry 3, CF 4 Dubb votes Henry (728) - Darth 4, Henry 4, CF 4 ECLIPSE Poli votes Henry (731) but does not count. |
03-25-2010, 02:31 PM | #927 | |
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I didn't say BK's vote was "over the top suspect". I said it was the most suspicious out of the late votes off-DV. I think I've explained it well enough several times today - his vote was the only one that nearly got DV out of trouble. That makes it in my mind more likely to be a wolf save than the other ones. I have also already said earlier in the thread that looking at it closer it actually seems less suspect, and that I now rate all those votes equal in terms of suspicion. And in fact that if anyone I consider you more suspect out of the group. Interesting that you ignored all of my posts which A, explained what I meant, B, modified my initial post, and C, cast suspicion on you. I've also already explained my vote a couple times. I was the first vote on Henry because i needed to vote early in the day, I wanted to vote based on whoever was a lead vote getter the day before and there was nothing else to base my vote on. I'm much more worried about people who voted after DV was on the block than people who voted for the same person as was on the block the day before. |
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03-25-2010, 02:33 PM | #928 |
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Has anyone been able to give an item to the scientist to prove he's in the game yet? I know this has been asked a couple times, but I don't believe anyone has said they've done it (and I passed my item n1, so I can't try it now).
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03-25-2010, 02:35 PM | #929 |
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This is not a revenge vote, though it may seem like it. If you're reading along you'll see that I said this morning that I would most likely switch to Dubb. I'm going to go ahead and do that. Looking at his voting yesterday it just seems off. Yes, he didn't vote CF, which he could have done and saved DV. But clearly DV thought someone could have saved him and didn't. He just strikes me yesterday as wanting to make it look like he was willing to vote DV, for posterity's sake, but not actually willing to vote him.
We also have to consider the possibility that some of the bad guys have their own win conditions or the ability to gain extra powers if they take "charge" or some such thing. There might be incentive for the bad guys to let one of their own get offed. unvote barkeep vote dubb |
03-25-2010, 02:36 PM | #930 | |
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I didn't get any response to that. I didn't want to waste a pass just for that if it's been done, but mark me down as planning to pass something to him tonight if no one speaks up. |
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03-25-2010, 02:41 PM | #931 | |
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Autumn seems to know alot about the bad guys.
I have information I am trying to hold close to the vest that could be used to save me if need be, but it might force a roled villager to out themselves, and I'm not sure we are in a position where we want to go down that path.
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03-25-2010, 02:42 PM | #932 | ||
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If the village wants, I will come forth with it and if it looks like the mob is going to swing my way today I will also come out with the information.
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03-25-2010, 02:57 PM | #933 |
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03-25-2010, 02:57 PM | #934 |
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Why must all sports jobs be entry level sales positions, sigh
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03-25-2010, 03:00 PM | #935 | |
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The more I think about it the more it makes sense to just come out with it since I don't think the exorcist will need to out himself to confirm this.
I received an exorcism last night. If I was evil at that time per the rules the whole thread would have known about it and I would be on the side of good now. Rather than the Exorcist revealing himself and confirming he exorcised me last night I would say that if I am lieing the exorcist could just simply perform the exorcism on me tonight.
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03-25-2010, 03:02 PM | #936 | |
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no one has been successful at passing me anything. |
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03-25-2010, 03:02 PM | #937 | |
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I also have a new theory about the dark charm. I think we were on the right path with dark=night, but I think it might make me aware at night. Nevertheless it was destroyed last night. So it must just be a one time use.
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03-25-2010, 03:04 PM | #938 |
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Why was it destroyed?
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03-25-2010, 03:05 PM | #939 |
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what do you mean by aware at night?
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03-25-2010, 03:07 PM | #940 | |
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By incentive I mean something like a win condition. The newly created vampires might get a major win if they become the head vampire, or something like that. In a game this complex I think it's possible there is something like that going on with the bad guys. |
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03-25-2010, 03:09 PM | #941 | |
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Like I said. My theory is that it was destroyed b/c I "used" it last night. All I know is that it said it was destroyed in the exorcism. I'm pretty sure the dark charm works like an aware role in that if someone takes a night action against you, you will remember it.
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03-25-2010, 03:10 PM | #942 |
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That's interesting info, Dubb. I definitely wouldn't want our exorcist to out themselves to confirm that though. And my read is that someone who's "possessed" doesn't necessarily equal all the bad guys out there (for example I assume the vampire wouldn't be considered possessed). So I'm not sure how much weight we can give that.
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03-25-2010, 03:11 PM | #943 | |
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I think this makes sense. That is unless the exorcist is not in the game. |
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03-25-2010, 03:15 PM | #944 |
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well we know there is a possibility of minor undead. skeletons and such. At least they were used in examples along with wolves. (I am assuming one of each type ) I assume that there are no more vampires. at least as a working hypothesis is a decent one.
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03-25-2010, 03:17 PM | #945 |
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03-25-2010, 03:18 PM | #946 |
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03-25-2010, 03:20 PM | #947 | |
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It's a good guess, though I wonder what kind of bad guys the vampire "converted" people into. |
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03-25-2010, 03:22 PM | #948 |
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03-25-2010, 03:31 PM | #949 |
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Also not a big concern at the moment, but we should probably look at those that were unable to vote. I think it was about 5 people, but I would need to go back and check. Also I do think that some of the so called questionable voters should be looked at as far as excorcisms and the Adept looking at them.
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03-25-2010, 03:32 PM | #950 | |
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Here's the list of those who did not get a vote in before the early deadline (and unfortunately I'm one of them): Poli J23 Telle hoopsguy KWhit |
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