03-01-2010, 01:11 PM | #901 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Well I'm not coming up with any better theories on my own, so I'm going to go along with Pass's idea..
vote Poli |
03-01-2010, 01:33 PM | #902 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
I would not have any need to play that kind of game in an endgame scenario if I was a wolf. I would just push like crazy for you with every possible reason I could construct, try like hell to talk known villager PB into joining me on the vote, and call it a day. But I'm not a wolf, so I'm trying to actually listen to what other people are saying and how they are playing the game. For better or worse, the Poli theory showed me that you are trying to actively engage with the data rather than playing defensively like I thought you were earlier. I'm much more inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to players whose thought processes make sense to me. Even if I don't agree with them as optimal play. |
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03-01-2010, 01:36 PM | #903 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Thomkal, I'm extremely interested in hearing from you at some point about the reward for winning yesterday. I understand that there may be some hesitation, but you only have the choice to share info with one person. And I'm the 2nd safest person in the game to share with based on data we have to evaluate (PB = demonstrated ability is 1st).
So I'm growing more concerned by the hour that you are not being forthcoming with this info. It is certainly not building any level of German solidarity |
03-01-2010, 01:38 PM | #904 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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Hoops, I agree 100% with the above post. I actually just came on to move my vote, in case I have access issues later.
unvote Pass vote Thomkal |
03-01-2010, 01:41 PM | #905 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
I hear ya. But of course I was playing defensively earlier. I assessed the situation this morning and saw three votes out of 8 players on me -- that's time to flip out. I felt that with that many votes on me, I needed to have a clear read on what I was up against. This might be construed as playing defensively, but I also showed why I was good this morning as well, based on the way I acted when Lathum used his Judge power. Anyway -- so where you're at now is that you recognize that I'm trying to find wolves, therefore I'm worth keeping around, but you don't agree with my interpretation of the situation? That's cool -- now that you've wised up regarding me, where are you looking now? |
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03-01-2010, 01:47 PM | #906 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Pass, I'm not fully "wised up" on you yet but enough to pull the vote for the time being. I remain focused on you + KWhit + Thomkal for now, although over lunch I did come to the conclusion that we are really unlikely to win this game if NTN is a villager.
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03-01-2010, 01:55 PM | #907 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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03-01-2010, 02:00 PM | #908 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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Quote:
Currently Ido think you are a possibility, Pass. But I think more likely that Thomkal is a wolf. Of course you both could be. I am trying to weigh my options. and if Ihad not a class I might have voted that way. |
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03-01-2010, 02:17 PM | #909 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Because it is going to be really hard to get anything from the votes over the first four days. We don't have any other actions, that I know of, that are going to produce any meaningful info for us. So we pretty much would have to go 3-3 on wolves the rest of the way. The next two night kills will be PB + me, which means it will be 50% every day mathematically. If we get a wolf today it is probably better than that, but how much? 60%? I just figure that our odds are pretty long to win this, no matter who the wolves are. Maybe 30%. But I would cut those in half if NTN ends up being a villager because of the lack of vote record issue mentioned above. |
03-01-2010, 02:18 PM | #910 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Day 1 vote record:
Day 1 (someone feel free to color-code this for me ): 129 - PB votes Lathum. 1-0 134 - PB unvotes Lathum 0-0 140 - Lathum votes Schmidty 1-0 141 - Pass votes Schmidty 2-0 161 - Autumn votes Telle 2-1 Schmidty over Telle 162 - MartinD votes NTN 2-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN 163 - Danny votes Poli 2-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli 164 - Lathum unvotes Schmidty 1-1-1-1 Telle/NTN/Poli/Schmidty 166 - KWhit votes DV 1-1-1-1-1 Telle/NTN/Poli/Schmidty/DV (at time of this vote there is one known villager and 3 unknowns with votes on them. Also all votes are by known villagers with exception of Pass vote) 168 - J23 votes Schmidty 2-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV 169 - Telle votes Autumn 2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Autumn (same thoughts as KWhit's earlier vote) 173 - PB votes Lathum 2-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Autumn/Lathum 181 - Thomkal votes CrimsonFox 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over cast of thousands (bizarre to see such a wide net of 1 votes an hour before deadline) 183 - NTN votes Autumn 2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Autumn over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Lathum/Crimson 184 - DV votes Lathum 2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Autumn/Lathum over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Crimson 188 - Lathum votes Schmidty 3-2-2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Crimson 190 - Lathum unvotes Schmidty, votes Darth 2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 Autumn/Lathum/Schmidty/DV over Telle/NTN/Poli/Crimson (all four top vote getters are villages, most put there by villagers) 196 - Poli votes Darth 3-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 DV over Autumn/Lathum/Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/Crimson 199 - Autumn unvotes Telle, votes Schmidty 3-3-2-2-1-1-1 DV/Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum over NTN/Poli/crimson 212 - Lathum unvotes DV, votes Schmidty 4-2-2-2-1-1-1 Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum/DV over NTN/Poli/Crimson 213 - Crimson votes DV 4-3-2-2-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over DV over Autumn/Lathum over NTN/Poli/Crimson |
03-01-2010, 02:19 PM | #911 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Quote:
I've been away from the computer the past couple hours Hoops. I'm leaning towards telling you, but I just want to see how things play out a bit. I go back and forth between Poli and Pass right now as to who to vote for, while not forgetting Telle and KWhit. I like Pass's reasoning behind Poli's potential wolfhood, but Pass has been the main person to push me about the bonus I got for winning the last event. Which no doubt the wolves would love to find out about. |
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03-01-2010, 02:20 PM | #912 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Dude you have got to stop feeding me this crap about you being cleared! I know it's almost your birthday and all, but seriously -- you are not cleared in anyone's book!!!
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03-01-2010, 02:21 PM | #913 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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03-01-2010, 02:36 PM | #914 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Jesus, it's like one wolfish post after another with you guys. I feel like there's like five or six of you, you've all won a long time ago, and I'm the only villager left (oh and PB). |
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03-01-2010, 02:40 PM | #915 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Okay, I'm trying to get through the grr.. of you calling yourself cleared and make some sense of this. So are you saying that because NTN got a lot of votes on a lot of different days, but kept living every time, that our only shot of winning is to hope he's a wolf and see what analysis we can do from that -- who tried to save him, etc? |
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03-01-2010, 02:46 PM | #916 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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I'm not very optimistic about our chances in this game no matter what. But my feeling right now is that ntn and Poli are the top two players likely to be wolves. As for #3, I don't know.
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03-01-2010, 02:55 PM | #917 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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Vote Thomkal
I said earlier this was where my head was. and now Ihave the time to actually put it on the keyboard so to speak. |
03-01-2010, 03:14 PM | #918 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Pass, I'm seer scanned. How much more cleared are you getting at this point in the game?
If there was a soothsayer, I've given them a ton of options for statements by me to scan. But I'm not banking on this at all. We've had four villager roles already revealed (seer, BG, duke, and judge). I'm just trying to figure out if I buy there being five villagers with roles in this game. |
03-01-2010, 03:16 PM | #919 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Day 2 voting record:
272 - Autumn votes NTN 1-0 278 - Lathum votes Poli 1-1 NTN/Poli 286 - Darth votes Crimson 1-1-1 NTN/Poli/CF 287 - Pass votes Autumn 1-1-1-1 NTN/Poli/CF/Autumn (first unknown vote of day) 296 - KWhit votes Poli 2-1-1-1 Poli over NTN/CF/Autumn (earlier said he was going to vote Poli or 'schmidty D1 voter') 305 - Crimson votes DV 2-1-1-1-1 Poli over NTN/CF/Autumn/DV 314 - MartinD votes NTN 2-2-1-1-1 Poli/NTN over CF/Autumn/DV (both NTN votes at this point by villagers) 317 - PB votes Poli 3-2-1-1-1 Poli over NTN over CF/Autumn/DV (2 of 3 Poli votes by known villagers, other is KWhit) 319 - Danny votes NTN 3-3-1-1-1 Poli/NTN over CF/Autumn/DV 337 - NTN votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1 Poli/NTN over Autumn over CF/DV (hmm, interesting vote by NTN here, 64 minutes before deadline. Explained in #341, felt Autumn was targeting Russians) 344 - PB unvotes Poli 3-2-2-1-1 NTN over Autumn/Poli over CF/DV 351 - Thomkal votes J23 3-2-2-1-1-1 NTN over Autumn/Poli over CF/DV/J23 (hugely odd vote by Thomkal, going for Schmidty voters) 354 - PB votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1-1 NTN/Autumn over Poli over CF/DV/J23 357 - Telle votes Autumn 4-3-2-1-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV/J23 (country lines, but not a good vote by voting known villager instead of unknown) 362 - Poli votes Autumn 5-3-2-1-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV/J23 365 - PB basically says he is duking away from Autumn 367 - Thomkal unvotes J23, votes NTN 5-4-2-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV |
03-01-2010, 03:17 PM | #920 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Well, there's PB... Anyway, is the Fool really a villager role? I usually see him as more of a distraction to the Seer. Then again, it's still another cleared villager, which does have benefit. I have to head out soon, but I'll think about this on my drive. |
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03-01-2010, 03:18 PM | #921 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Fool is a listed villager role. So it is 100% villager, even if their data is worthless.
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03-01-2010, 03:20 PM | #922 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Will do, but the longer it takes the more it feels like you are consulting with other wolves on a fake reward story. Just sharing my feelings here rather than spending PMs to do so ... |
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03-01-2010, 03:21 PM | #923 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Yeah, I don't get all of the secrecy, Thomkal.
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03-01-2010, 03:21 PM | #924 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Yes. But you were talking about justifying five villager roles. I assume you meant the imbalance of five "plusses" for the villagers. I'm not sure the Fool counts as a "plus" for the villagers. I can see both sides on it, but I'm not sure which is more powerful. |
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03-01-2010, 03:22 PM | #925 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Gotta go. Hopefully, I'll be back online before deadline.
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03-01-2010, 03:22 PM | #926 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Reading this again, it was a bad choice of words. I think my most recent post corrected this. |
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03-01-2010, 03:24 PM | #927 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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03-01-2010, 03:31 PM | #928 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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Pass I agree that the fool is not a plus for the village except that clears the fool themselves.
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03-01-2010, 03:57 PM | #929 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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You will see the reason why, but I have now told Hoopsguy what my bonus is, so hopefully he can now understand my hesitancy in telling him in case he is indeed the cunning wolf. With that, I will be afk for a while for dinner and such, but should be around for a while before lynch. |
03-01-2010, 04:41 PM | #930 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Checking in, I see not much is going on. I'll be back after I get to the coffeeshop to study -- unless they don't have internet, in which case I'll be back after I'm done studying!
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03-01-2010, 04:56 PM | #931 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Got message from Thom, can understand not going public with it.
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03-01-2010, 04:58 PM | #932 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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I hope so too, because otherwise I might have to feel a little guilty about this. But your play is way out of whack with your engaged villager game. I think this is my best chance of getting a wolf with the vote today. VOTE KWHIT |
03-01-2010, 05:17 PM | #933 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
Whoa, dude. You dropped da bomb! I can't say I haven't thought about KWhit at all, but with all the other targets, he was pretty low on the list. Why him out of everyone? |
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03-01-2010, 05:23 PM | #934 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
Well, you're wrong. I don't always have the same playstyle from game to game. Some of that is intentional, some is just based on my availability. This has been one of the games that I have had to lay back a little bit. I'm just a vanilla villager. Your wolfdar is out of whack. |
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03-01-2010, 05:26 PM | #935 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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03-01-2010, 05:28 PM | #936 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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One thing that has been bugging me, though. Why is all of team Russia still alive? I would think that the wolves would want to keep as few villagers from being able to PM each other as possible - villagers sharing knowledge of any kind is bad for them.
It makes me feel better about voting for someone on team Russia as at least one possibility is that there are 2 wolves on that team. It would also help explain some of the block voting dynamic we've seen from them. |
03-01-2010, 05:33 PM | #937 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
Also, is part of your "reasoning" (isn't funny how I used quotes around that?) still your conviction that there cannot be 2 wolves on a team, so there must be a wolf between me, Pass, and Thomkal? Because I don't think that EF could state that isn't the case more clearly. |
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03-01-2010, 05:47 PM | #938 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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UNVOTE POLI
VOTE NTNDEACON I thought hoops was going to put a vote on NTN, but now that I see where his vote went, I'm going to put some heat here. |
03-01-2010, 05:47 PM | #939 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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KWhit, math alone suggest that the probability of wolves being on same team = about 30%. So there is a 70% chance that he did not have to fudge the teams at all, thus making his statement and reality consistent.
Wolf 1 - assigned a team Wolf 2 - 2/14 chance of being assigned to same team Wolf 3 - 2/13 chance of being assigned to same team if 2 not assigned to that team, 1/13 if 1+2 on same team But I'm glad to draw some kind of reaction out of you. I like playing with you when we're both villagers. But I haven't seen anything from you since Friday night that suggests this is the case. |
03-01-2010, 05:56 PM | #940 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
I think this is probably a good vote as well, but the villagers really do need to circle the wagons around one candidate today rather than being split across multiple options. That would allow the wolves to steal it with late switches in an end-game scenario. No reason to let that happen. I'll have some availability to discuss where we should go in the hour leading up to deadline, but won't be around the entire last hour. Hopefully there is some really good conversation the rest of the way. |
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03-01-2010, 05:59 PM | #941 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
I'm definitely up for more discussion here. I'm not sure about my availability -- lurker's going to show up any minute, at which point she'll be using the laptop, probably for an hour or so, then we'll head home. But somewhere in there, I'll need to figure out dinner. |
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03-01-2010, 06:09 PM | #942 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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As of 941:
Thomkal 2 - PurdueBrad (904), ntndeacon (917) Poli 2 - KWhit (889), Telle (901) KWhit 1 - hoopsguy (932) ntndeacon 1 - Passacaglia (938) |
03-01-2010, 06:45 PM | #943 |
FOFC Survivor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Wentzville, MO
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Just got home. Will read and catch up. Mercy I have a lot tondo
__________________
Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum. |
03-01-2010, 06:46 PM | #944 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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I'm happy with a vote for either Thomkal or Poli, but I agree we need to get behind one or the other.
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03-01-2010, 06:59 PM | #945 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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KWhit, do you think Thomkal and Poli are the best choices for today or are they the ones you mention because they have two votes?
If you had no concerns about having to vote defensively who would you vote for and why? |
03-01-2010, 07:06 PM | #946 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Conyers GA
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Quote:
Well, I was thinking the best 2 candidates were ntn and Poli, but then Thomkal has shot up my radar today. I would most likely vote for Poli (which I did), but ntn and Thomkal are very close behind. |
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03-01-2010, 07:07 PM | #947 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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I'm back in the thread now. KWhit you no longer think Ntn is a wolf like you stated above?
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03-01-2010, 07:07 PM | #948 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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Ah crossposts how I love thee. forget my question Kwhit.
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03-01-2010, 07:10 PM | #949 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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So hoops, do you feel better about me now that I've told you my victory bonus?
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03-01-2010, 07:19 PM | #950 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Thom, a little bit. Enough that I'm willing to risk not voting for you today, I suppose.
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