Werewolf XXIII - Lost - Game Over! Survivors win!

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I've got no alliances wiht anyone but survivors freckles so don't be grouping him with me.

I meant swaggs, not you...sorry

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, the reason that I would like to put it out there is because I think that the relative sanctity of the role reveal hint is only going to decline.

Take the numbers we have, however many you think that is, and be happy with it.

Keep in mind that we are providing some information of value to the others as well if we offer full disclosure. Have you guys thought through that aspect of it? Just want to make sure before opening it up ...

I'm fine with reveal or no reveal. But going forward I won't be using the codewords as validation for anyone's role.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Once KWhit confirms he is okay with telling the secret, I think you will start to trust penny.

Spleen1015 and KWit are definately in my circle of trust.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

He just TKOd that idea...back to distrusting penny

Well, we're telling you that a vote for penny right now is a bad idea. He is no where near 50-50. Is it possible that he is an other? Yes. But it is highly unlikely.

We have a good idea that he's clean. If you keep your vote on him you will look unbelievably suspicious in my book.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I don't think he needs to tell the secret.

I feel like he already has.

Probably not.

I like KWhit's idea of having hoops tell it to show us another sign of trust.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I've got no alliances wiht anyone but survivors freckles so don't be grouping him with me.

What does this mean? I don't understand the freckles references, can someone fill me in?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by saldana

holy crap, i cant think of a game where we were all running around in like chickens with our dicks cut off like this. i am out for work soon, and might be back in before i go, otherwise, i am out until 9pm eastern....hoops, i have reason to trust spleen, and by association you and kwhit. i have never been a big fan of following along with the leader in these games but if you guys got anything to give us a target, i will be back in time to change my vote, and i trust you more than i trust blade right now (read: i dont like the push on penny at all)

Your just jealous im dead sexy

In all seriousness, im just still feeling out this whole circle of trust you guys are forming...mine circle of trust would look far different, so im just poking and prodding

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

What does this mean? I don't understand the freckles references, can someone fill me in?

Freckles is the nickname that Sawyer has for Kate on the show.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Keep in mind that we are providing some information of value to the others as well if we offer full disclosure. Have you guys thought through that aspect of it? Just want to make sure before opening it up ...

That's why I say sit on it. I feel pretty good about penny, but other than that, I think our ship has sailed on the use of our hint.

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, just say the word and I'll put it out there. It isn't all that hard, once you know what to look for ... I think collectively we may have been a little too cute with this information over the last 15 or so hours for our own good.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I don't think he needs to tell the secret.

I feel like he already has.

Maybe I'll be completely suprised, but I agree.

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Im asking you this though? What evidence has been presented on anyone else that is better then the 50/50 odds i feel i have with you. If you give me actualy evidence to vote for someone else i will swap my vote...we have a deal?

Deal. I have a feeling the evidence will be presented soon. The problem is the 50/50 odds you have right now. I don't think there is a 50-50 chance on anyone right now of being an "other". I can't blame you for thinking that way, as with your train of thought it makes sense, I just think your train of thought is wrong, unless RA turns out to be an "other".

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

KWhit, just say the word and I'll put it out there. It isn't all that hard, once you know what to look for ... I think collectively we may have been a little too cute with this information over the last 15 or so hours for our own good.

It is a little vague, IMO. I do believe that someone could have figured it out, but it is highly unlikely to me.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Well, we're telling you that a vote for penny right now is a bad idea. He is no where near 50-50. Is it possible that he is an other? Yes. But it is highly unlikely.

We have a good idea that he's clean. If you keep your vote on him you will look unbelievably suspicious in my book.

Thats fair enough...you guys build your circle of trust and support it....raiders is far closer to my circle of trust then the word your group has put out so far....if i hear a reason to vote for someone else besides penny ill change, but telling me not to vote for penny alone doesnt do much. Ill go to player x and suddnely he will ally with player y and ill be in the same boat

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Maybe I'll be completely suprised, but I agree.

Now desnudo is acting with this group....this group has gotten too big. Somebody is lying

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

Deal. I have a feeling the evidence will be presented soon. The problem is the 50/50 odds you have right now. I don't think there is a 50-50 chance on anyone right now of being an "other". I can't blame you for thinking that way, as with your train of thought it makes sense, I just think your train of thought is wrong, unless RA turns out to be an "other".

Evidence for someone else or just not for you?...

[hoopsguy]

Done - it stays vaulted.

I stated earlier that Penny may have cracked the code. For what it is worth, I don't think that is the case. His vague information, when looked at correctly, is almost 100% sure to vindicate him as a villager to a subset of the survivors.

This is why I'm struggling with the Day 1 vote - I do believe that there should be an "other" on him, based on observed voting patterns from previous werewolf games. But the people who are alive that had their votes on him at the end of the day all are in the upper 1/3 of trust for me. So am I off in trusting Blade and Raiders (not coupling them) or am I wrong in thinking that the others left a vote on King? Just trying to work this through in my mind ...

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Thats fair enough...you guys build your circle of trust and support it....raiders is far closer to my circle of trust then the word your group has put out so far....if i hear a reason to vote for someone else besides penny ill change, but telling me not to vote for penny alone doesnt do much. Ill go to player x and suddnely he will ally with player y and ill be in the same boat

How very odd.

[spleen1015]

I think I am going to go ahead and makes this play because I don't think it being a secret will be as much benefit as it being public knowledge. I also think it will make today's vote much easier.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I think I am going to go ahead and makes this play because I don't think it being a secret will be as much benefit as it being public knowledge. I also think it will make today's vote much easier.

Then have hoops do it. That's fine by me.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

How very odd.

How very odd?...you guys are acting off your trust, so am i...seems perfectly logical...if you think i going to bow down to you just becuase you say your right i wont...facts sway me, i havent seen any

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Then have hoops do it. That's fine by me.

Works for me. hoops, spill it, dude.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

How very odd?...you guys are acting off your trust, so am i...seems perfectly logical...if you think i going to bow down to you just becuase you say your right i wont...facts sway me, i havent seen any

I think you are about to.

[Blade6119]

i look forward to this

[Swaggs]

If it is more than a simple keyword, then I am lost.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

How very odd?...you guys are acting off your trust, so am i...seems perfectly logical...if you think i going to bow down to you just becuase you say your right i wont...facts sway me, i havent seen any

Facts? Ummm.... There are no facts yet, certainly none to implicate penny or exonerate Raiders.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Now desnudo is acting with this group....this group has gotten too big. Somebody is lying

I'm not associating myself with this group. I just think I know who they are.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If it is more than a simple keyword, then I am lost.

Indeed.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Facts? Ummm.... There are no facts yet, certainly none to implicate penny or exonerate Raiders.

I could say that same thing back to you

[Blade6119]

dola, meaning to exonerate penny or implicate raiders

[spleen1015]

The history between Blade and KWhit is working aginst us, a little me thinks. You guys are on the same side...

...I think!

[hoopsguy]

OK, will take me a couple of minutes to put this together because I want to reference post #s and my detailed notes are at home. Information coming up on the "code".

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, will take me a couple of minutes to put this together because I want to reference post #s and my detailed notes are at home. Information coming up on the "code".

You'll do better than me then. I wasn't going to reference the post #s.

[Swaggs]

My interest is certainly piqued.

[KWhit]

My point was that I find it illogical that you would think your "gut feel" would give you a better indication of who to vote for than a group of 3-4 people who are saying - "We're villagers. We absolutely have reason to trust one another. We have a very good reason to believe that you are voting for a villager. Vote for somebody else. We'd rather not tell you why at this point."

So either we're all Others (which would be incredibly stupid to group ourselves like that) or we're telling the truth. Either way it makes no sense to leave your vote where it is.

[KWhit]

Above post to Blade - I forgot to quote his post.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

My point was that I find it illogical that you would think your "gut feel" would give you a better indication of who to vote for than a group of 3-4 people who are saying - "We're villagers. We absolutely have reason to trust one another. We have a very good reason to believe that you are voting for a villager. Vote for somebody else. We'd rather not tell you why at this point."

So either we're all Others (which would be incredibly stupid to group ourselves like that) or we're telling the truth. Either way it makes no sense to leave your vote where it is.

If im to play along, where would you have me move it then?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

If im to play along, where would you have me move it then?

Hell if I know - I haven't gotten that far yet.

You're the one convinced that there was an Other in the voting block for King. Either vote for Raiders or yourself!

[hoopsguy]

Earlier I had stated that Blade earned some trust by coming out of the gates as the first person to vouch for himself as "survivor". That term was in my PM, he was the first to use it, so I gave him some credit for that. Right or wrong ... to be determined.

However, I should have paid much more attention when KWhit came out on post #69 and said

Hey guys. Just a simple survivor checking in.

The word "simple" is the flag, as that term was in my PM as well. It is a short PM, very little of substance in there. I had mentioned that earlier in post #128:

Blade, if you are a garden-variety survivor, then you can probably guess the other reason why I don't think it would be particularly cool for people to try and elaborate on their PMs. I don't want to spell it out and help the "others" with this message, but people who are survivors may be able to start building trust based on this non-reveal of a PM.

Anyways, I didn't catch the hint on the "simple" in KWhit's PM until after I had posted my trust list on Sunday in post #575. However, I did pick up with it when KWhit repeated this in post #640 about an hour later.

I'll be happy to say the same for the empath:

I'm not an other. I am a simple survivor.

Now, at this point Spleen had already started to align himself with KWhit. So I reviewed his posts, and noted his near-certainty in this, and formulated that Spleen either shared his role or had some connection to KWhit that allowed him to know the role.

I did a search for the use of the word "simple" over the first 500 posts of this thread to see who else might have used the term. There were two others who did use the word at some point, but not in the same context as KWhit. One was Blade (who is not indicating that he is a 'simple survivor' at this point) and one was mckerney. I'm not convinced that mckerney was dropping it as a hint for the rest of us, although I have considered the possibility.

I personally felt that this touched a little too closely to a PM reveal, but I did send a message to Ardent asking him about the use of the word. Once I received a reply from him I was more comfortable proceeding in this direction in terms of using it as some kind of a beacon for the others.

A little while ago Pennywise used the term, which is about the time that KWhit and Spleen said that they were starting to trust him. And I pulled my vote off of him, although only partly because of the word simple. The rest was because of the more detailed paraphrase of his PM, which closely aligns with my own.

KWhit, Spleen - please feel free to add any details you think I may not have covered.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

If im to play along, where would you have me move it then?

I've already asked that everyone vote for Raiders.

[SnDvls]

penny - I haven't vote for you FYI. I wanted to hear something from you. I think I have that makes me a little less suspicious of you. I'm waiting for hoops info now, but it looks like one of our quiet people might find themselves in a bit of a bind once they log on.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Hell if I know - I haven't gotten that far yet.

You're the one convinced that there was an Other in the voting block for King. Either vote for Raiders or yourself!

Neither are viable options in my mind with where i currently feel players are...and i have to go take a test so this revelation for me and my views will have to wait until micro economics has consumed my emotions

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Earlier I had stated that Blade earned some trust by coming out of the gates as the first person to vouch for himself as "survivor". That term was in my PM, he was the first to use it, so I gave him some credit for that. Right or wrong ... to be determined.

However, I should have paid much more attention when KWhit came out on post #69 and said

The word "simple" is the flag, as that term was in my PM as well. It is a short PM, very little of substance in there. I had mentioned that earlier in post #128:

Anyways, I didn't catch the hint on the "simple" in KWhit's PM until after I had posted my trust list on Sunday in post #575. However, I did pick up with it when KWhit repeated this in post #640 about an hour later.


Now, at this point Spleen had already started to align himself with KWhit. So I reviewed his posts, and noted his near-certainty in this, and formulated that Spleen either shared his role or had some connection to KWhit that allowed him to know the role.

I did a search for the use of the word "simple" over the first 500 posts of this thread to see who else might have used the term. There were two others who did use the word at some point, but not in the same context as KWhit. One was Blade (who is not indicating that he is a 'simple survivor' at this point) and one was mckerney. I'm not convinced that mckerney was dropping it as a hint for the rest of us, although I have considered the possibility.

I personally felt that this touched a little too closely to a PM reveal, but I did send a message to Ardent asking him about the use of the word. Once I received a reply from him I was more comfortable proceeding in this direction in terms of using it as some kind of a beacon for the others.

A little while ago Pennywise used the term, which is about the time that KWhit and Spleen said that they were starting to trust him. And I pulled my vote off of him, although only partly because of the word simple. The rest was because of the more detailed paraphrase of his PM, which closely aligns with my own.

KWhit, Spleen - please feel free to add any details you think I may not have covered.

Exactly.

Here is the post I was going to make...

When my motives were questioned concerning my Day 1 vote, I felt I needed to do something to prove I wasn't a bad guy. I read my PM to see if there was anything in there that would be useful to those who got the same PM.

The words "simple survivor" were in the PM and figured I would use those as a clue.

When I was trying to dig up dirt on Blade, I noticed that KWhit used the same phrase when he checked in after roles were given out. It wasn't a coincidence.

Then, later on, this morning, hoops included the same phrase in one of his long posts. So, I started to trust him at that point.

penny used the same words in the post that KWhit and I noted.

I also think Swaggs recieved that same PM. That is why he thinks he can trust us, if we are who he is talking about.

So, the answer is simple, really.

I am a little surprised that this has been able to last this long. With all of the talk of PMs, I figured someone smart would figure it out. That's why we need to be leary of penny for now.

So, anyone else who got the same PM should know we're simple survivors as well. Of course, anyone claiming to be at this point can't be trusted on that alone.

[SnDvls]

where does this lead us back to then?

RA or king in my book

[Blade6119]

Alright then, ill play along...

Spleen, you ask me to follow you in not voting penny...fair enough...follow my lead in this one

VOTE ALANT

You have somewhat earned my trust...now get your friends to follow me in this vote(for alan, who started the vote against mr. w)..i have played up trust for him all day to see if he would react. He reacted how i expected. Nothing about odds, this is about play. If i had to bet anyone right now it would be ALANT...you want me to trust you, then you gotta give a little back too

[Blade6119]

dola

UNVOTE PENNY
VOTE ALANT

Never unvoted

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Alright then, ill play along...

Spleen, you ask me to follow you in not voting penny...fair enough...follow my lead in this one

VOTE ALANT

You have somewhat earned my trust...now get your friends to follow me in this vote(for alan, who started the vote against mr. w)..i have played up trust for him all day to see if he would react. He reacted how i expected. Nothing about odds, this is about play. If i had to bet anyone right now it would be ALANT...you want me to trust you, then you gotta give a little back too

I'm not aginst voting for Alan, but I need something to go by here. Right now, I want to vote for Raiders. I need something to convince me other wise. I think we have given you something good to trust penny and the rest of us by.

[Schmidty]

Good lord. 5 more pages to read.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Good lord. 5 more pages to read.

just read the last two and you'll be caught up.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I'm not aginst voting for Alan, but I need something to go by here. Right now, I want to vote for Raiders. I need something to convince me other wise. I think we have given you something good to trust penny and the rest of us by.

Unfortunately i cant give you what you want at the current time for various reasons, so i can only reccomend this course of action over the one you want to take...trust me when i say that pains me not to help, but i cant at the current time on this matter