Werewolf XLVIII - The horror of sorcery hill (Game over)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

While we're requesting things, I'd like to reiterate my request for glass ground fiber.

Umm, wouldn't let's say an artificial lens be something that could be ground into glass fiber?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Pass it seems like you just wasted a potion. I presume this was one where you just mixed ingredients to see what would happen?

What waste? We have a lock now for someone not being a wolf. This is a step in the right direction. Let's not knock it just because it didn't kill/unveil a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Oh it's good for the village, no doubt. It's just that I don't feel like I've won if the village wins and I'm a dead villager.

Heh heh that's your problem. Myself, I don't care if I die if I helped the village win. Don't be getting selfish now.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm a bit surprised that path never got that blinding potion. I really thought Swaggs had planned to pass it to him. Hopefully he passed it to someone else? If that happened, you don't have to speak up or anything, but path -- do you think it might be wise to announce how to use it? I'm pretty sure Swaggs made the potion -- you passed me an ingredient for it, which I passed to him, and he had another ingredient to make it. So hopefully Swaggs passed it to someone he trusted. If not, the wolves must have it.

Then I'd rather not say how to use it.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I figured you'd done something besides just doused me with the holy water. That there was some other effect.

Hopefully path will come through for us soon with the passing of ingredients to you.

Just sent the PM.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

What waste? We have a lock now for someone not being a wolf. This is a step in the right direction. Let's not knock it just because it didn't kill/unveil a wolf.

Aren't we throwing around the word 'lock' fairly easily? The holy water might protect him, we don't know do we?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Aren't we throwing around the word 'lock' fairly easily? The holy water might protect him, we don't know do we?

Who's talking about protection? Fact is, holy water plus evil is usually a bad thing for evil. Ergo, BK is likely not evil. And since Pass would probably be thinking the same thing, he likely isn't a wolf either because it would make more sense as a wolf to just keep that potentially dangerous potion in wolf hands.

For at least a day, IMO, it likely removes two people from our lynch discussions. There are nine of us left, and the general reasoning has been probably three wolves. So that means we have a 3/7 chance of finding a wolf today--I will take those odds right now.

And there's still more we may be able to do with other potions and ingredients before this day ends. We get one wolf--just one--and we likely knock over the domino that will point us to the rest of them.

If BK is protected, too, well, that's just a bonus.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

For at least a day, IMO, it likely removes two people from our lynch discussions. There are nine of us left, and the general reasoning has been probably three wolves. So that means we have a 3/7 chance of finding a wolf today--I will take those odds right now.

I don't mind leaving Barkeep out of the voting conversation today for reasons I've previously stated. I just questioned the idea of saying he is now proven good. Elevated chance, sure. Proven, no.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't mind leaving Barkeep out of the voting conversation today for reasons I've previously stated. I just questioned the idea of saying he is now proven good. Elevated chance, sure. Proven, no.

Isn't that semantics though? Is it 100% sure? I suppose not. We don't really know exactly what Holy Water does or what effect it has on good or bad. But we can make a pretty reasonable guess based on the traditionally good nature of Holy Water, and I hardly think something that brings up angels and harp music when it's around someone is an indication that person is bad.

Until further evidence comes out to suggest he is not good, I am fairly confident we can rule BK out of our calculations for who is a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

hoops, I see you in this thread -- you'd been pretty suspicious of BK up to this point -- thoughts?

[hoopsguy]

OK, I've made up my mind where my vote is heading today.

Path has earned himself an elevated position of trust through the passing of items this game. However, when looking closely at the actions in Day 3, heading into Night 3, you can build a strong case for him as a wolf.

1.) He knows Pass has items, as this has been announced in the thread. Holy water is one of these items, something that just might concern the wolves, no?
2.) Potions are passed as a day action, results are received prior to night completion
3.) Path doesn't get notice on receiving the potion of holy water, so who else might have it given that Pass said he was going to move the item
4.) Kill Swaggs

However, Pass held the potion thus foiling that plan. They still took out a largely trusted villager, while retaining a villager that trusts Path nearly completely. So it isn't a waste, but the holy water was still in play. And has now been used, pseudo-clearing both Pass and BK for today. That isn't the result they are looking to achieve.

VOTE PATH12

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I think BK was exactly the right person to test. Because it provides - for me, at least - clarity about Day 3. There were late votes coming in for him that comdemned Lathum to death. We know that those were not orchestrated by the wolves to save one of their own if the Holy Water works the way we think it does. Which means Day 3 just sucked and that at least three of the four people in Day 2 were villagers (LSG as the sole person who is not determined for me, I recognize the rest of you do not know that I'm a villager).

[Passacaglia]

So I take it this means BK is cleared in your mind as well?

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I'm making that assumption for today. It requires a bit of a leap of faith that holy water helps us and hurts them, which seems reasonable to me.

[hoopsguy]

Going through Barkeep's list of posts by Path, he left out a detail in #92:

"laying the groundwork early" in response to Lathum saying I'm likely a wolf if I'm around on Day 3. We now know that Lathum was a villager. This statement set off some minor alarms for me at the time towards Path, since I didn't see a reason for him to defend me. Similar to how Barkeep felt yesterday that Path didn't have reason to defend him for playing his normal game when others didn't see it.

In post #814 he is willing to try to make the eternal bond potion if he gets the ingredients. In post #842 he thinks that I'm being "wolfish" by suggesting that we try naming two people and that he isn't the one listing the names and I get his vote.

[Passacaglia]

In all fairness to path, he did pass me the ingredients for the eternal bond potion. I guess the village might have been pressuring him to do it, though.

So far I know that path has passed to the village:
the holy flask (used for making holy water)
newt tail and vine (used for eternal bond potion)

And maybe the peppers. That's a lot to pass.

[Passacaglia]

Checking my PMs, he definitely sent me the peppers. Going back into the thread, I'm wondering if Swaggs didn't notice that I passed them to him.

[hoopsguy]

Passing items is worth it if it
- buys trust, which means you might get them back
- know where to go to get them if you need them, given public/small trust lists

I'll go searching for order of posts this afternoon (about to disappear for a few hours) but wasn't Swaggs the first person to work with you, and Path joined in afterwards?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Passing items is worth it if it
- buys trust, which means you might get them back
- know where to go to get them if you need them, given public/small trust lists

I'll go searching for order of posts this afternoon (about to disappear for a few hours) but wasn't Swaggs the first person to work with you, and Path joined in afterwards?

Yes, that's right.

[Barkeep49]

I really want to examine the posts of LSG and hoops, but I am leaning towards voting for path as well. His reactions just seem a little off the whole game, especially as he became more prominent in Day 4.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Umm, wouldn't let's say an artificial lens be something that could be ground into glass fiber?

I don't believe so. I'm pretty sure they're separate things.

[Poli]

Heading out for two birthday party things. Not sure when I'll be back.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Heading out for two birthday party things. Not sure when I'll be back.

Lemme guess, kids' birthday parties, kids of "couple-friends" of you and your wife?

Did I mention before how strenuously I am avoiding marriage?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I think BK was exactly the right person to test. Because it provides - for me, at least - clarity about Day 3. There were late votes coming in for him that comdemned Lathum to death. We know that those were not orchestrated by the wolves to save one of their own if the Holy Water works the way we think it does. Which means Day 3 just sucked and that at least three of the four people in Day 2 were villagers (LSG as the sole person who is not determined for me, I recognize the rest of you do not know that I'm a villager).

Well, it removes the wolfish element from the late vote on Day Two, yes, as it would be supposed if Barkeep is not a wolf (as it appears) that saving a wolf is not a reason for the late run or switching of votes. I wouldn't say it clears us involved, though. If a player was a wolf but simply holding his vote for some other reason or maybe because he really wasn't certain who to go for (after all, if you're a wolf and there's a fight between two villagers in a vcote, is it at all clear who you should vote for? not necessarily...), then a late voter could still be a wolf. Not saying there isn't some grounding for your theory on that part, but I would advise caution making assumptions on that basis.

As for path, I'm up in the air on that. I'm not sure how much we have to go on here, but am listening to the theory and will try to work out some things myself. One thing that bothers me is that, hoops, you are not some person cleared in my mind at all, and my fear is (as a potential wolf), you might actually be attempting to steer us all in the direction of a villager.

But I am listening to all viewpoints at the moment.

[LoneStarGirl]

I am going to go ahead and vote hoops and hope that we have a run off today between path and hoops, both of which I think are wolves

vote hoopsguy

[Passacaglia]

LSG, can you run down your argument for hoops again? You've been on him for a while now, and I forget why.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

LSG, can you run down your argument for hoops again? You've been on him for a while now, and I forget why.

We're past day 2 and he's still alive?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

We're past day 2 and he's still alive?

Right. I guess I was hoping for something more serious than that from her. Plus, she's been accusing him since well before Day 2.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, it removes the wolfish element from the late vote on Day Two, yes, as it would be supposed if Barkeep is not a wolf (as it appears) that saving a wolf is not a reason for the late run or switching of votes. I wouldn't say it clears us involved, though. If a player was a wolf but simply holding his vote for some other reason or maybe because he really wasn't certain who to go for (after all, if you're a wolf and there's a fight between two villagers in a vcote, is it at all clear who you should vote for? not necessarily...), then a late voter could still be a wolf. Not saying there isn't some grounding for your theory on that part, but I would advise caution making assumptions on that basis.

As for path, I'm up in the air on that. I'm not sure how much we have to go on here, but am listening to the theory and will try to work out some things myself. One thing that bothers me is that, hoops, you are not some person cleared in my mind at all, and my fear is (as a potential wolf), you might actually be attempting to steer us all in the direction of a villager.

But I am listening to all viewpoints at the moment.

Right, it doesn't absolve late votes from being wolves, per se, but reduces their motivation to rig the vote. If we had seen something different with BK + holy water, then we would have to look really hard at the Day 3 (and Day 2) votes.

[LoneStarGirl]

After what happened with Lathum, I don't know why everybody isn't suspicious of Hoops. I think that Path is a wolf too, and if need be, I will switch my vote to him later today, but I would like more people to put pressure on Hoops.

[LoneStarGirl]

Also nobody has really questioned ntndeacon and he has been very quiet as of late... maybe pressure needs to be put on him also

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, I've made up my mind where my vote is heading today.

Path has earned himself an elevated position of trust through the passing of items this game. However, when looking closely at the actions in Day 3, heading into Night 3, you can build a strong case for him as a wolf.

1.) He knows Pass has items, as this has been announced in the thread. Holy water is one of these items, something that just might concern the wolves, no?
2.) Potions are passed as a day action, results are received prior to night completion
3.) Path doesn't get notice on receiving the potion of holy water, so who else might have it given that Pass said he was going to move the item
4.) Kill Swaggs

However, Pass held the potion thus foiling that plan. They still took out a largely trusted villager, while retaining a villager that trusts Path nearly completely. So it isn't a waste, but the holy water was still in play. And has now been used, pseudo-clearing both Pass and BK for today. That isn't the result they are looking to achieve.

I feel even better now about my vote for hoops. Again, one of our most careful players has just made two misstatements:

1) The only reason we have holy water is because I passed the holy flask to Pass. If I was a wolf, there was really no reason for me to introduce that into the game.

3) The potion that Pass thought Swaggs passed to me was blinding potion, not holy water. A flat out misstatement used to justify his vote on me.

I'm very confident that hoops is a wolf.

[path12]

Dola, but going forward I see he is either swaying some folks with another false argument (as with Lathum), or else he has some fellow wolves trying to point the finger in my direction since he knows I'm onto something.

When you're deciding whether to vote me, go back through Barkeeps log of my posts. I maintain there is nothing there that says anything but a villager.

If you still want to vote me, fine. We're probably losing the game anyway.

[LoneStarGirl]

Well path... you do make a convincing argument for yourself, so I won't be voting for you today

[LoneStarGirl]

I really wish you would have passed me your ingredients path... We have only used one spell/potion all game, I know this isn't what Alant had planned for this game

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I really wish you would have passed me your ingredients path... We have only used one spell/potion all game, I know this isn't what Alant had planned for this game

I gotta tell you LSG that I think you're a wolf. I don't know if the votes are there today to vote you off, but I think that I wish that they were. Your posts this afternoon just scream wolf to me.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- I'm going to go back and do a post recap of hoops.

[hoopsguy]

Path, if you want to try and get into a game of semantics to discredit what I'm saying, that is certainly your perogative. However, this has nothing to do with Pass thinking Swaggs was passing you a potion. It has to do with you not ending up with the holy water -which you had knowledge of prior to the night actions - and then acting in a manner to simultaneously take out a trusted player and go hunting for items.

The act of passing the items is considerate and all, but it really doesn't mean all that much if you think you can just go retrieve them before they are used. Which is what I position that you intended with the public passing of the flask. Buy the trust, then take the item back ASAP.

If I was just trying to build an argument for who I think I should go after to try and live another day, I don't think you are the best choice. But I'm going after the person who has the most to gain by the wolves play, and whose play I can associate with the game I've seen the wolves run up to this point.

I didn't ever think I was going to convince you that you are a wolf. Either you are, and you know exactly what team we are both on, or you aren't in which case I'm wrong again and you obviously should object. Either way, of course you are going to take my approach as justifying your vote for me.

LSG is a lost cause this game in my eyes. If she isn't a wolf, then her fixation on me being alive past Day 2 and all that crap is completely driving bad decisions. However, there are still plenty of others here who can try to make the right decision between now and the deadline. First, figure out if I'm wolf/not wolf. If the latter, then lets work together to see if this game is still salvageable. I think it is, and I think it starts with taking out Path today.

[Barkeep49]

Still going through the 100+ posts of hoops (I'm on Day 3). But LSG is looking more and more suspicious as I go back and see some of her posts as I do the recap on hoops. I'm going to go that way with my vote for the moment.

Vote LSG

[RendeR]

(begin diehard impersonation) I got me a real bad headache(/end impression)

I will in in and out all night, no idea if I'll be on around deadline time or not, I got a migraine thats blacking out my right eye currently (c'mon excedrin migraine...)

Currently the two people that seem the most suspicious in everyone's eyes (including mine) are hoops and LSG, I've had a real bad feeling about LSG all game long (note my votes for her on earlier days before popular sentiment caused me to change votes later on)

I'm going to stick with my guts on this and keep my early vote today on her:

VOTE LSG

[Passacaglia]

I'm going to put in a vote on hoops. I really think he's barking up the wrong tree with path, and in a very misinformed manner.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

LSG is a lost cause this game in my eyes. If she isn't a wolf, then her fixation on me being alive past Day 2 and all that crap is completely driving bad decisions. However, there are still plenty of others here who can try to make the right decision between now and the deadline. First, figure out if I'm wolf/not wolf. If the latter, then lets work together to see if this game is still salvageable. I think it is, and I think it starts with taking out Path today.

If I ever said that I was voting for you because you were alive past day two, (which I might have, but I dont remember and dont feel like looking) it was a joke. I am tired of people following you because you are Hoopsguy and believing every piece of BS you throw out there. Just because I don't have the time or patience to go through and analyze every post like you and Barkeep, doesn't mean that what I say or believe is crap. You made a big mistake with Lathum and people have already forgiven and forgotten... but if I would have done that, or ntn or path, we would be on the chopping block right now.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, do you still believe that your entire COT from earlier was wolf-free when we are down to nine players?

Help me understand why you think I'm barking up the wrong tree with Path. I want the conversation around this, both for the benefit of today and for the next day of action whether I'm around or not.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I got up until today with hoop's post recap and I will be leaving work soon so I will likely finish later. I do feel much better about hoops though I will point out that Swaggs was pretty fericously anti-hoops and Swaggs is now dead, just as DT was on D1 and DT ended up dead. But like I said I feel slightly better about hoops after what has transpired during D4 and after doing this recap.


Day 1
58 – Says he has name an item but doesn’t want to say what they are
64 – In response to me says there are pro/cons to item reveal. Is concerned about giving wolves a roadmap. Generally favors free information just not in this game.
66 – Is also concerned about reveal names due to power in magical cultures
96 – Feels that there is only between 10-20% of finding wolf [favoring no lynch]
97 – Wishes there had been a Night 0

Night 1
142 – Wants his no vote considered a vote for no lynch. Claims to not really understand impact of rules

Day 2
150 – Was in kitchen and found nothing. Asks Pass questions about how recipes work
158 – Suggests if people are going to help Pass not to post about it in thread. Suggests eternal bond as lovers potion
168 – Agrees with CR that PM suggests future kitchen searches to be more successful
190 – Suggests I drop my no lynch questions
192 – Asks if recipe is a potion or magic item
215 – Says that DT was more likely killed for his ingredient than because DT was suspicious of him
224 – Got no idea of who else was in the kitchen
225 – Suggests location of DT’s body is important
236 – Asks if item passing is done in “real time” or at end of day
242 – Asks what happens to items of lynched person
244 – Beginning to think name is not important
245 – Thinks a villager who is going to lynch passes items rather than risk a random dispersal
247 – Wonders where everyone went
250 – Asks how wolves would have played with their information (report vs not report)
258 – Clarifying that I did not see anyone in my PM
260 – Lists what everyone has posted about their night results
261 – Asks Ardent and I if we saw each other
265 – Defending against a vote says he doesn’t have a cool role but that he is a conversation starter
267 – Explains to LSG that he didn’t realize that she had also failed to send in an order
270 – Feels that putting out info about who has done what is helpful to village [vs. keeping this to himself[
273 – Reviews all the Izulde related posts
277 – Vote count
309 – Feels I have been close to the vest. Is interested in the fact that others have suspected me
310 – Encourages Izulde to pass items before he’s lynched
316 – Thinks LSG is more likely wolf than Izulde.
317 – Is closely scrutinizing me and path over current vote leaders
326 – Asks who I trust
336 – Feels that I am off track with my assumptions about him
338 – Votes for LSG and gives vote count
342 – Fixes mistake from vote count
343 – Leaving vote on LSG, distrusts her more than me
346 – Feels she has multiple posts ignoring run on Izulde
352 – Sent in conditional order to pass item if he’s tied or in the lead
259 – Unimportant post

Night 2
370 – Explains to LSG that his vote on her was not throw away as she had multiple votes when he cast his vote
372 – Explains to path that path is suspicious from Day 1

Day 3
389 – Found nothing in the kitchen again
390 – Would like explanation for why Lathum voted for him
392 – Would laugh if Day 1 after Lathum votes for him with no explanation in 391
395 – States when he is bad guy biggest goal is to randomize results in eyes of the good guys. Also points out that he more frequently is dead by Day 3 when Lathum is a wolf
399 – Encourages Lathum to think of risk/reward of voting him out
400 – Encourages Pass to use judgment about making recipe publicly available
414 – Thinks cronin was killed for destroying recipe. Is reluctant to name his starting ingredient
423 – Names starting ingredient as cactus bulb and states he will be giving it away by end of the day
430 – Explains again he has no items and that the second search was more likely to result in something
433 – Encourages people not to be afraid to move items to Pass as they can be moved again
434 – Posts information about rooms/people/items
445 – Thinks the game is about to be interesting [as path is passing Pass container]
472 – Doesn’t think bad guys are anything but humans. Suggests holy water might be a tone time seer
481 – Thinks there is overlap in spells/potions
482 – Thinks holy shield would include using holy water
510 – Tells Pass that yellow flower counts as an item
534 – Is less opinionated about vote than on D2. Assumes Pass is a good guy. Gives elevated trust to those who have helped pass, Swaggs and path. One of the four D2 people was a wolf. Wants to know why LSG got leeway for yesterday
541 – Asks if I think that it was four villagers on D2
542 – Explains about leeway for LSG: People removed votes from her but not Izulde after Alan clarified rule regarding not receiving a PM
549 – Shows LSG that when he voted for her that she was still in contention
553 – Gives Izulde vs LSG timeline. Asks LSG if she’s voting for him because of his vote on her or because she suspects him
566 – States that while he is wrong frequently he is willing to reevaluate his assumptions fairly quickly
569 – Asks Pass if he made something besides holy water
579 – Lists posts which caught his eye. Seems to find contradiction by Lathum
580 – Vote count
582 – Suggests Lathum could have been playing it close to the vest
585 – Suggests to Swaggs that I have been inconsistent for several days but he hasn’t pulled the trigger
586 – States that Izulde was always in vote lead on Day 2
589 – Votes for Lathum
593 – Vote count
597 – Admits he misread Lathum’s post. Votes for me
606 – Insists Lathum mistake was honest and is why he gives post # so info can be validated
612 – Vote count
617 – Says Swaggs should vote for him if Swaggs feels like hoops was double crossing
618 – Vote count
626 – Points out that AE and Chief still haven’t voted and I can move my vote
641 – Vote count for 9:59 and 10:00
649 – Gives reasons for voting for me. I pushed for info on Day1 but didn’t reveal on Day 2. Had better flow of info on D3
651 – Thinks it will be 10:00 vote count

Night 3
711 – Is confident that he will not be night killed
713 – Unimportant post
724 – Explains why he would be a bad night kill after yesterday’s Lathum controversy
743 – States he was passed a recipe and ingredient by two different players.
745 – Is happy to say who passed things to him
746 – Wonders why NTN is on Pass’s trust list
749 – I’m not sure what this post is referring to. I believe it is something to do with Pas
751 – Wants to know if Pass will talk about what he did with the potions

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I gotta tell you LSG that I think you're a wolf. I don't know if the votes are there today to vote you off, but I think that I wish that they were. Your posts this afternoon just scream wolf to me.

and Barkeep, in all the games I have ever played I dont think I have ever said anything that screamed wolf, I dont know how to be a wolf, just like I obviously dont know how to be a villager. You are wrong here bud.

[Barkeep49]

I want to be very clear: My vote is on LSG but I believe both she and path are wolves. Just feel stronger about LSG.

I do think she has a fair point, however, that hoops has gotten off pretty lightly for his mistake. Of course I now think hoops is a good guy so I'm not sure what all that point has accomplished

[LoneStarGirl]

We have all pointed fingers at path, hoops, bk, me and a little at Pass but we have basically ignored NTN, AE, Chief and Render. One of those four have to be a wolf that is just staying out of our way. And from what I know about playing wolf with ntndeacon in that Marvel Comics game, he is a great wolf because he likes to stay out of the limelight.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

and Barkeep, in all the games I have ever played I dont think I have ever said anything that screamed wolf, I dont know how to be a wolf, just like I obviously dont know how to be a villager. You are wrong here bud.

I don't think you're a bad player.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, do you still believe that your entire COT from earlier was wolf-free when we are down to nine players?

Help me understand why you think I'm barking up the wrong tree with Path. I want the conversation around this, both for the benefit of today and for the next day of action whether I'm around or not.

Yes. I don't know why you thought path said anything about having the holy water, but it was always me who had it. Path sent a bunch of things, without question, and didn't ask for anything back. I guess my thinking is that he's done so much to help the village (gave us an ingredient for the holy water that I used, gave me an ingredient for the blinding potion, gave me both ingredients for eternal bond potion), so much more than several other people around here, it's hard to be looking at him as a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

We have all pointed fingers at path, hoops, bk, me and a little at Pass but we have basically ignored NTN, AE, Chief and Render. One of those four have to be a wolf that is just staying out of our way. And from what I know about playing wolf with ntndeacon in that Marvel Comics game, he is a great wolf because he likes to stay out of the limelight.

I agree that we have 1 if not two wolves in that list. And if we get a wolf today I think going after that group tomorrow would be helpful.