Werewolf CXXIX - Doctor Who and his Trusty Yak - WOLVES WIN

[Autumn]

I don't know that nobody's leaning toward him. He stands a very, very high chance of being a wolf. Unfortunately we can only vote for one at a time!

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by JAG

Quoted for EF.

But that was for yesterday's night deadline. He specifies that.

[Zinto]

I have to assume Darth is a villager because I would assume if the wolves found out I was spying on Jag wouldn't they assume I was the seer and would attempt to night kill me. That being said I would love to hear the theory on what I could have been doing to Jag had I been a wolf that night.

[Zinto]

Also unless Autumn and Jag think that it is a bad idea I think vanilla villagers should say what their two powers are in their time period.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I have to assume Darth is a villager because I would assume if the wolves found out I was spying on Jag wouldn't they assume I was the seer and would attempt to night kill me. That being said I would love to hear the theory on what I could have been doing to Jag had I been a wolf that night.

That's a fair point. On the other point, wolves sometimes have a power to check people for what role they are too. Or for example one of them might be able to search for The Doctor, etc.

[EagleFan]

tyketime - 3
Zinto - 2
EagleFan - 1

That look right?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't know that nobody's leaning toward him. He stands a very, very high chance of being a wolf. Unfortunately we can only vote for one at a time!

At this point everyone but you stands a high chance of being a wolf to be honest. Claimed villager or scanned; not talking just cunning but conversion. I thought that there may not have been a conversion but re-reading the roles it looks like it is a specific power of one of the wolves to convert and it's not like the usual "if night killing the convert they are turned" type of conversion.

I can't imagine that they have not converted by now.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

At this point everyone but you stands a high chance of being a wolf to be honest. Claimed villager or scanned; not talking just cunning but conversion. I thought that there may not have been a conversion but re-reading the roles it looks like it is a specific power of one of the wolves to convert and it's not like the usual "if night killing the convert they are turned" type of conversion.

I can't imagine that they have not converted by now.

If there was a conversion, could it be safe to say we should have lost today. If not then there where only 4 wolves to began with and not 5.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

tyketime - 3
Zinto - 2
EagleFan - 1

That look right?

Yep.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Zinto

If there was a conversion, could it be safe to say we should have lost today. If not then there where only 4 wolves to began with and not 5.

With 21 players I can't see how there could have been 5 starting wolves with a conversion power as well as that would seem a little unbalanced, in my opinion at least.

I think we may be at end game today if we pick wrong or pick the brutal.

[Autumn]

Well, with a regenerating doctor and companion, I wouldn't consider it impossible.

[Lathum]

Jumping on really quick, I have been uber busy and one of our big bosses is here today so my time is limeted.

I think there is a likely chance a conversion has happened. I think Jag would be an obvious choice for that target, so I am actually inclined to believe it was someone else.

[Darth Vilus]

I am on the West Coast and I had to close last night so I haven't been around because I was asleep.

[Darth Vilus]

I still think that Zinto might be the way to go here. and I'm not really sold on JAG either to be honest, I'll explain why in a minute

[Darth Vilus]

nevermind, I reread something and JAG doesn't look as bad as I thought he was

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

I still think that Zinto might be the way to go here. and I'm not really sold on JAG either to be honest, I'll explain why in a minute

While I think Jag is a possible convert target I don't think it is the best place to go today. Based on his voting record and his insistence to try and clear himself based on following someone around one night I would like to subscribe to your newsletter on Zinto.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

While I think Jag is a possible convert target I don't think it is the best place to go today. Based on his voting record and his insistence to try and clear himself based on following someone around one night I would like to subscribe to your newsletter on Zinto.

If we are going to decide who to lynch on voting record alone I would say that their are a bunch of people with as poor a voting record as I have. Also following Jag around who usually is spot on with his analysis is not a poor decision plus if I was a wolf and knew that we would be lynching a villager wouldn't it be a poor decision to latch on to Jag to try and get cleared?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

If we are going to decide who to lynch on voting record alone I would say that their are a bunch of people with as poor a voting record as I have. Also following Jag around who usually is spot on with his analysis is not a poor decision plus if I was a wolf and knew that we would be lynching a villager wouldn't it be a poor decision to latch on to Jag to try and get cleared?

Obviously we all have pretty poor voting records since we haven't caught a wolf yet.

I'm not sure about your second point about latching onto Jag, but following a trusted player makes sense as a wolf because you can always say "well I was just followin Jag who is trusted"

[JAG]

I would like to point out first of all that obviously anything said by the unknowns should be viewed by the role claims / scanned and actual villagers among the unknowns especially as highly suspect.

The talk about conversions is almost completely irrelevant for today. There is no way it is a high percentage play to go after the convert as they can only be one of the possible wolves, same as the scanned players (except dward who could be any of two). Meanwhile the unknowns could be any of the 4-5 wolves. Whether there were four starting wolves and still four or there were five to begin with or there are now five, two things are absolutely the best percentage plays:

1. Voting an unknown
2. All villagers among the remaining unknowns should vote in a block along with the cleared / scanned villagers to avoid splitting the vote when it could potentially be 6 villagers to 5 wolves.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Obviously we all have pretty poor voting records since we haven't caught a wolf yet.

I'm not sure about your second point about latching onto Jag, but following a trusted player makes sense as a wolf because you can always say "well I was just followin Jag who is trusted"

Wouldn't I have said that already? I accept that it is my decision to follow a trusted player and would accept the ramifications if it looked bad in any other situation then this one where we need a wolf since lynching me does not get a wolf.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I have to assume Darth is a villager because I would assume if the wolves found out I was spying on Jag wouldn't they assume I was the seer and would attempt to night kill me. That being said I would love to hear the theory on what I could have been doing to Jag had I been a wolf that night.

No they would not. Why? Becuase the Seer had already revealed before I revealed. There are also alot of people claiming to be medieval citizens. I know i am (so that clears me) so that makes me look at the others. Zinto agreed with what i said about the reveal which would have been the smarter wolf play don't you think? Just go with what a villager says instead of deny it and have the truth come out later? it just doesn't sit right with me at all, too coincidental

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Wouldn't I have said that already? .

Have you needed to at this point?

[Darth Vilus]

And since everyone is talking about conversion couldn't Zinto have converted JAG at that time? It doesn't say they have to be in the future to make a conversion and JAG didn't come out with any of his analysis or suspicions until after I was pushing Zinto

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

No they would not. Why? Becuase the Seer had already revealed before I revealed. There are also alot of people claiming to be medieval citizens. I know i am (so that clears me) so that makes me look at the others. Zinto agreed with what i said about the reveal which would have been the smarter wolf play don't you think? Just go with what a villager says instead of deny it and have the truth come out later? it just doesn't sit right with me at all, too coincidental

That is not what I am saying. I am saying that you seeing what I was doing on night 3 could lead to me being thought to being the seer which would cause me to be night killed if you where a wolf so I am saying in my mind it buys you some trust with me at least.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Have you needed to at this point?

I am not sure why I would be the only wolf to follow him as you are pointing out I did if there was a belief that it would give someone trust.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

That is not what I am saying. I am saying that you seeing what I was doing on night 3 could lead to me being thought to being the seer which would cause me to be night killed if you where a wolf so I am saying in my mind it buys you some trust with me at least.

except there is no seer listed in the roles

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am not sure why I would be the only wolf to follow him as you are pointing out I did if there was a belief that it would give someone trust.

I'm not saying you are the only one, but you currently are the only one trying to buy trust by doing it.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

except there is no seer listed in the roles

So are we going to assume that the wolves thought there was no seer. Darth's following of me happened before Autumn's reveal so unless you are going to say that the wolves thought because there was no seer role listed in the rules that there was no seer then I think that point is moot.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

So are we going to assume that the wolves thought there was no seer. Darth's following of me happened before Autumn's reveal so unless you are going to say that the wolves thought because there was no seer role listed in the rules that there was no seer then I think that point is moot.

I have no idea what the wolves assumed, all I know is the was no seer listed in the rules.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have no idea what the wolves assumed, all I know is the was no seer listed in the rules.

I haven't played enough games or read enough games but I would say that the thinking of their is no seer in the rules so there is no seer is crazy to me. It seems like it would be difficult to catch wolves if there was no seer. Also there is the fact that two of the wolf roles have a cunning ability which pretty much should tell anyone there is going to be a character with the seer ability.

[JAG]

Darth, I do believe you have the best of intentions, but let me pose you a question. Can you tell me a situation where with six villagers and five wolves (which you are assuming if there was a conversion) it makes sense not to vote with Autumn, an unconvertible role? Absolute best case scenario is there is a 5-5 split with villagers and wolves and you're banking on a tie-breaker.

[JAG]

Worst case scenario, you're voting for a villager and it's guaranteed game over when the wolves put in their switch.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I haven't played enough games or read enough games but I would say that the thinking of their is no seer in the rules so there is no seer is crazy to me. It seems like it would be difficult to catch wolves if there was no seer. Also there is the fact that two of the wolf roles have a cunning ability which pretty much should tell anyone there is going to be a character with the seer ability.

To answer your question I think a veteran wolf would assume in place of a seer there are people with scan abilities that they can use in certain eras. Once they are out of that era or use those abilities they really arent a harm to the wolves at that point.

Generally if a role isn't listed, especially one as important as seer, there are likely other mechanics at play.

Of course, the other, more logical reason why you are still alive is you are a wolf. Occams razor and all.

[Darth Vilus]

First, I'm not saying there was definitely a conversion, only that there is a possibility.

Second, why does voting with Autumn matter? He's a good guy, ok fine, why does his opinion matter more than anyone else's? Unless he scanned a wolf his vote isn't any better than any other player

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

First, I'm not saying there was definitely a conversion, only that there is a possibility.

Second, why does voting with Autumn matter? He's a good guy, ok fine, why does his opinion matter more than anyone else's? Unless he scanned a wolf his vote isn't any better than any other player

Because you should trust that all the real villagers will vote with Autumn for the same reason that you should be, because otherwise we will be outnumbered by the wolves voting in a block if we are at 6-5. I don't mind the debate over who to vote for, but in the end it's his decision since hes the only one who is 100% guaranteed to be a villager.

[dubb93]

Time Medieval

As I said above I personally think this is our best bet. I will hold my vote for later in the day to see where the doctor is going to go and to see what shakes.

[Darth Vilus]

I don't really see how that makes sense. Say we all vote with autumn, if he votes for a villager the wolves could easily vote with him as well which wouldn't help in the slightest.

if we don't hit a wolf it's over, so I'm voting for the person I believe is most likely to be a wolf. I'm not switching just because a roled villager votes for someone else, that's idiotic

[Darth Vilus]

CW, just tell us who one of the wolves is. Be a pal

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Lathum

To answer your question I think a veteran wolf would assume in place of a seer there are people with scan abilities that they can use in certain eras. Once they are out of that era or use those abilities they really arent a harm to the wolves at that point.

Generally if a role isn't listed, especially one as important as seer, there are likely other mechanics at play.

Of course, the other, more logical reason why you are still alive is you are a wolf. Occams razor and all.

I think this little back and forth moved away from what I was trying to say in my initial post. I am not saying it clears me at all I in fact was not trying to argue that what so ever. I was trying to say that since I know I am a villager I believe that Darth is a villager.

[EagleFan]

Heading home for dinner, scanning quickly now and I see a few things that I want to address. I will try to get on before I go out tonight (not sure if I can do much but check in from my phone after that).

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

I don't really see how that makes sense. Say we all vote with autumn, if he votes for a villager the wolves could easily vote with him as well which wouldn't help in the slightest.

if we don't hit a wolf it's over, so I'm voting for the person I believe is most likely to be a wolf. I'm not switching just because a roled villager votes for someone else, that's idiotic

Darth, the fact is if Autumn chooses wrong, then we stand a good chance of losing no matter who you vote for. What I'm proposing is not idiotic at all. We have to ensure all villagers vote the same way to make sure we outnumber the wolves. How can we make sure we do that? We have to follow a completely trusted villager. Juggler and I have uncontested roles but could have been converted. Mau and dwarf have been scanned but could be cunning. So it stands to reason to make sure we lynch a target decided on by villagers and not wolves to vote with Autumn.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

I don't really see how that makes sense. Say we all vote with autumn, if he votes for a villager the wolves could easily vote with him as well which wouldn't help in the slightest.

if we don't hit a wolf it's over, so I'm voting for the person I believe is most likely to be a wolf. I'm not switching just because a roled villager votes for someone else, that's idiotic

It's not a question of who we vote for, you can suggest we vote for whoever. The point is, if all the villagers don't vote together, we can get outvoted. If you vote for someone and I vote for someone else, and you're a villager, we've lost the advantage of numbers. Five wolves will just switch to one target and win.

If you think I should switch, convince me, but we can't afford to fragment the vote.

[Darth Vilus]

Autumn, vote for Zinto, Yay or Nay?

[Autumn]

I think Zinto is a much lower percentage choice right now. He has at least claimed a role. We have several people who haven't even done that much.

[Darth Vilus]

lower than who? and why?

[Darth Vilus]

we have 11 people left, evryone should say who they want to vote for and why. That's the best way to see where everyone's head is at.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think Zinto is a much lower percentage choice right now. He has at least claimed a role. We have several people who haven't even done that much.

What role is that?

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Lathum

quoted for new page

Let's look at this

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Lathum

quoted for new page

.

[Darth Vilus]

Whatever, i don't know how to do it. look at post #706