WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection - EVIL WINS!

[bhlloy]

Danny - can you explain why the wolves would want to clear this up for us? Especially as they have no idea who the real seer is and who is the cultist (beyond what is in thread)

[Danny]

Because if they don't we get more scans.

[Danny]

Yes we won't know exactly which of the two is telling the truth, but once we do finally confirm the right one, we have more information.

[Danny]

If Simbo is telling the truth for example, there is little risk in waiting since we would only be lynching the cultist. If Mauboy is then there is more of a potential reward.

[LoneStarGirl]

Hey guys, sorry I was MIA yesterday. They had me on some hard core drugs and I slept until 4 this morning. I thought yesterday was going to be a boring unanimous vote Chief day yet I see I've missed 7 pages.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So not ideal then all in all.

Wish Julio had realised that there would be no night kill night one and the possibility of none night two. Easy for me to say but he should have revealed.

Chief could have been infected and then scanned right? I guess that's what Chief's hinting at. You know, what with chief being a likely target for infection and all. Shame you guys have ALL LOCKED YOUR VOTES IN AL-BLEEDIN'-READY! Bhlloy knows he probably didn't do the right thing here but then again neither has anyone else. What can you do about it now.

Worst case scenario is that Chief was a nurse.

Dont judge too harshly, I had to vote before I left for the day, would hate to not get a vote in *coughKwhitcough*

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Careful, that edit button angers the werewolf gods..... right CF?????

I laughed

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Because if they don't we get more scans.

Possibly. But I'm almost certainly going down tonight, and not resolving the simbo/mauboy situation the next day will also give the wolves an extra bite if Simbo is the infected. I'd definitely trade that for a random seer scan if I am a wolf. This isn't a normal game and I think we need to resolve that question today.

EF can wait. We know he's bad. I don't understand the rush to lynch a guy who seems like he wants to be lynched. That always ends up going well.

[bhlloy]

Sorry, meant to say if Simbo is the transformed, not if Simbo is the infected

Also on the very off chance that EF is telling the truth and is just an infected (which would be disappointing to me) then he could be cured this evening. We still have a doctor in the game.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Danny

You don't play that often, but I'd say my average length in games before being night killed is about 2 days.

If I remember correctly this happened to Lathum and AlanT a lot... but they were always thought of as great players.... so I dont know what the reasoning behind killing you early is.

[LoneStarGirl]

I just read a lot and its hard to digest at this point. It looks like either MAuboy or Bhlloy is lying? But If Bhlloy gave us Chief last night then he's probably telling the truth about EF.

Or is the debate that Simbo or Mauboy is lying? I know we have four seers, three still alive, is that right?

[Danny]

No, bh is telling the truth. Its either Simbo or Mauboy who is lying

[GoldenEagle]

I need to get caught up here, but I am a bit suspicious of bhlloy. If the scans are accurate, then obviously that is a good thing. But this is all surpressing all discussion of candidates and vote history, which would be very valuable to the wolves.

So I think it is possible that these scans are to through us off our game and the wolves are just sending us who they infected.

[JAG]

If EF is Transformed, of which the odds are better mathematically (2/4, or 2/3 if you dismiss he's infected)it there is significant upside in lynching him, as we'll get at least five more scans in (worst case is there's another infected that is promoted to Transformed and they don't get a conversion that night, so it would be at least two nights before they could get a night kill in). That's practically game over village wins good.

If EF is the mummy, bhlloy is probably dead unless we get fortunate with a cure (presuming EF as mummy would play this way knowing there would be a night kill) so we probably don't get more than one scan the rest of the game which increases the difficulty quite a bit. There would potentially be a couple of infecteds running around then too. On the plus side, the mummy hunter gets a straight shot at getting the mummy out of the game.

In the very unlikely event he is infected, it's another free pair of scans for our seers.

[bhlloy]

That would be kind of genius GE, but very easily disproven with a counter reveal. Plus if the wolves did do that they would never ever get a NK, which is very counterproductive for them.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I need to get caught up here, but I am a bit suspicious of bhlloy. If the scans are accurate, then obviously that is a good thing. But this is all surpressing all discussion of candidates and vote history, which would be very valuable to the wolves.

So I think it is possible that these scans are to through us off our game and the wolves are just sending us who they infected.

I rate that possibility as highly unlikely. Aside from the fact that the real professor could call him out at some point, the wolves would get no night kills to remove the most dangerous villager roles following such a strategy and our seers would just continue accumulating scan information.

[Narcizo]

I think that mau's reaction means there's reasonable doubt about him vs simbo and we should leave them. Still think it's worth the doctor curing simbo. Don't think we should analyze more between simbo och mau. Let the infected worry about that.

[bhlloy]

Let's discuss the remaining doctor tonight for a second. Is it worth him targeting Simbo if we are seriously talking about not lynching him tomorrow? I'd say no but on the off chance he is infected and not a roled evil it could deprive them of a NK tomorrow night, if we get lucky with tonight's bite

[bhlloy]

wow, great minds even if we came to a different conclusion

The issue with that Narc is that obviously Simbo says "I'm cured" and we have no idea if that's true or not. Unless we use our potential last scan on him as well. I'm not a fan of that at all.

[GoldenEagle]

Never mind, my post makes no sense.

[bhlloy]

So Narc, you are happy to roll the dice on 1/14 odds that Mauboy chose a real professor with his scan plus the other unlikely things with his story? Don't we usually play the odds in this situation?

[bhlloy]

correction... other unlikely things with Simbo's story

[bhlloy]

Also if Simbo is transformed or the mummy (basically anything other than infected so a 3/4 chance) the wolves aren't going to resolve this for us I don't think. They aren't going to give up that valuable a role just to stop the seer who will be back to shooting in the dark

Sorry for the stream of consciousness, working from home this morning so have more time to think about this than usual weekday

[The Jackal]

Well, since the only evils that can communicate with each other are transformed, any infected NK's won't be coordinated, they wouldn't know if either simbo/mau or anyone for that matter was transformed/mummy/infected

[The Jackal]

If we think EF is the mummy it might be worth going elsewhere but EF could also be a transformed trying to goad us into thinking he's the mummy so that we don't vote him off and go elsewhere. Hard to vote against bhlloy's scan, unless we feel really strongly about mau/simbo.

[bhlloy]

Which is funny because I think I'm the one that feels the strongest about voting against my scan and going after Simbo

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Which is funny because I think I'm the one that feels the strongest about voting against my scan and going after Simbo

Still, are we overthinking it here, or playing it smart?

[The Jackal]

Sadly, my break is over

[bhlloy]

Here are my reasons for that thinking:

1) nasty feeling that EF is the mummy and won't go down tonight, leaving ourselves completely open to NK for the rest of the game
2) thinking that Simbo's story is just too much of a longshot to be true and
3) thinking that in this particular ruleset the wolves are unlikely to resolve this for us and it's the most pressing thing we need to resolve

Honestly, the more time goes by, the more I am overthinking it and wondering about mauboy. For a supposedly revealed seer who is probably going to survive the night he's not around contributing much, which makes me wonder. And there are definitely things around Simbo's reveal that would make it more believable than Mau's, if the math just wasn't so much in his favor.

[mauchow]

I'd likely change my vote but I'm locked in ef which is fine.

[bhlloy]

Typing that out was actually good, as I think I'm back on the EF first bandwagon and this is why. If Simbo is the true seer, he can at least get a scan in tonight, while if we lynch him the wolves can eliminate both seers in a single day. That's a bit of a scary thought. So I'm fine with going down the EF road today I guess

unvote simbo
vote EF

[mauchow]

I'm at work and on phone for another 5 hours. Tough for good contribution.

[bhlloy]

And even a wolf simbo claiming to be the seer has to pick somebody to clear, and that is information the village can use as well.

[GoldenEagle]

What percentage do we have to think that EF is the mummy before we go in another direction? I am guessing about 80%.

I will go ahead and state that i am 90% sure EF is the mummy.

[JAG]

Worst case (and by gut I think the likeliest), EF is the mummy and we should be able to take him out by night five or end of D5 depending on when the hunter kill happens. That takes down the number of bad guys we have to kill to 2 and prevents them from making any new Transformed if we lynch them. Sucks to probably lose our seers, but confirming that info for the hunter is probably worth it, otherwise we're just taking a low probability guess for today.

[bhlloy]

Uh, does that mean you think neither mauboy or simbo is bad then JAG? I'm on the EF train for now but I hardly think we're taking a low probability guess here if we don't go with him

mau/simbo, whichever one of you is the real seer might want to take a look at JAG after that statement

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Let's discuss the remaining doctor tonight for a second. Is it worth him targeting Simbo if we are seriously talking about not lynching him tomorrow? I'd say no but on the off chance he is infected and not a roled evil it could deprive them of a NK tomorrow night, if we get lucky with tonight's bite

It's worth curing him if we don't lynch him today whatever. Seems like the percentage play. He would claim seer to keep himself alive if he was infected - unless anyone has any better ideas about who the infected could be, why not chance curing him - whether we're going to lynch him tomorrow or not. We get to keep both seers alive another night if he is infected.

Didn't want to get drawn on mau but the way he's pressing to lynch Simbo instead of EF (who really can't be infected as far as I'm concerned) and the way he's been playing today makes me think he might be lying and trying to get the most out of the situation by keeping EF alive another day. Not sure by any means but I think there's an element of doubt.

Bear in mind that mau has cleared me. There's a chance that I might have been infected last night but even if I was then I don't actually know if mau or simbo is telling the truth. Maybe I think it's obvious that mau is telling the truth but I can't know it.

[JAG]

Don't get paranoid bh. I meant if we leave mau/Simbo alone and vote for unknowns, it's a lower percentage play than hopefully taking out a Transformed or guaranteeing our Hunter a mummy target.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Also if Simbo is transformed or the mummy (basically anything other than infected so a 3/4 chance) the wolves aren't going to resolve this for us I don't think. They aren't going to give up that valuable a role just to stop the seer who will be back to shooting in the dark

The "wolves" don't have anything to do with it. It will be the infected person who will decide what to do. And if they want to leave a seer alive to clear people and possibly find another bad guy then that works for me. It will come out in the wash sooner or later.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

It's worth curing him if we don't lynch him today whatever. Seems like the percentage play. He would claim seer to keep himself alive if he was infected - unless anyone has any better ideas about who the infected could be, why not chance curing him - whether we're going to lynch him tomorrow or not. We get to keep both seers alive another night if he is infected.

I think you are right here. Worst case scenario the doctor wastes a cure that was probably going to be wasted anyway.

Doctor, Doctor I think I'm a bell?
Take these and if it doesn't help give me a ring!
Shut up Doctor. Also cure Simbo tonight. kthxbye

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

The "wolves" don't have anything to do with it. It will be the infected person who will decide what to do. And if they want to leave a seer alive to clear people and possibly find another bad guy then that works for me. It will come out in the wash sooner or later.

I must be really dense here, I don't seem to get what everyone else clearly understands. How will the infected decide what to do?

[Narcizo]

I don't get the certainty that Eagle is the Mummy. Anyone checked his posts to see any evidence? I'd do it but I don't have the time. If he's the Mummy he saw that everyone was going to vote him. Why throw a spanner in the works by getting all cryptic about it?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I must be really dense here, I don't seem to get what everyone else clearly understands. How will the infected decide what to do?

It's the infected who make the night kills. The infected have no way to communicate with any other wolves except in this thread.

[bhlloy]

So we're relying on the infected to out themselves in thread? Doesn't sound like a great plan to me

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I don't get the certainty that Eagle is the Mummy. Anyone checked his posts to see any evidence? I'd do it but I don't have the time. If he's the Mummy he saw that everyone was going to vote him. Why throw a spanner in the works by getting all cryptic about it?

Yes, I did. There was one interesting post a little after bhlloy revealed Rum as bad where he tries to play down the reveal and talks about how he was thinking of looking at a Julio voter.

[JAG]

Here:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

vote Chief Rum

Seems like a slam dunk but that itself can be troublesome as nothing is ever that easy on day two, is it?

Was going to look at voting a Julio voter. Not sure if Chief is on that list.

Sorry that I missed the deadlines but I was exhausted (very little sleep last night, damn insomnia) and fell asleep. There seemed to be a lot of changing after I laid down.

Here's the D1 vote count:

CrimsonFox (4) - raiders army (141), EagleFan (178), Chief Rum (248), JAG (429)
Zinto (4) - the jackal (145), Darth Vilus (240), Lonestargirl (370), GoldenEagle (384)
Danny (4) - Britrock88 (149), Simbo Klice (260), Cougarfreak (373), Julio (428)
Julio Riddols (6) - Bhlloy (192), Narcizo (261), mauboy1 (368), CrimsonFox (406), Zinto (408), Danny (414)
Cougarfreak (1) - passacaglia (331)

No vote: KWhit


So of the Julio voters, we know bh, Danny, and Mau were not Transformed or Mummy. EF voted for CF, which speaks well to him not being a Big 3 Evil. I think he might have wanted to vote a Julio voter because he knew there were no Big 3 Evil players there, which he could only know as the mummy.

That's my two cents.

[Darth Vilus]

Vote EagleFan

Off to work again, oh so fun. AT least it's not really detrimental today, EF is getting lynched for sure. I should be around most of the day tomorrow and fri

[Zinto]

Even if you think EF is the mummy, going somewhere else today makes no sense. Knowing who the mummy is puts us in a much better position to win, since he would be going down in the first go around to the hunter.

[GoldenEagle]

I just feel like we are not making any progress other than the scans. I am also just not sure why he is announcing these scans so early to kill our debate and voting history.

[Zinto]

Well, bhlloy already announced that he was going to scan EF. Everyone probably would have been waiting for him to reveal the results of his scan before really discussing anything. More than likely in a couple of days we will have lots of discussion since both seers will be dead.