Werewolf LXIII - Fall of the Elementals (Game Over - Avatars Win!)

[hoopsguy]

OK, I had a night kill order in on Path. I was blocked from being able to act by someone.

VOTE PATH

[Lathum]

Well lets hope that person fesses up.

And how do you have a night kill?

[hoopsguy]

That was my Rhino power.

It is also why I was OK with the vote yesterday - I figured whichever of Path/Heinz was not getting the vote was getting a call from me.

Also, MrW seems to be a really curious kill given that there are a couple of trusted people who are still going to be around today and MrW was not universally trusted.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I was only going to use the Night kill if we voted for an Elemental last night. I was willing to go 1:1 trade on those guys at this point in the game.

That option was taken away from me. Just to be clear, the power that was directed at me kept me from using any power last night. It was not, at least as I read it, someone acting as a bodyguard on Path. I was the target of a "negation" power which took precedence over my night kill power.

[hoopsguy]

As we are now under the sign of the Trout, I won't be able to do anything today. I used the Trout option to guard Lathum earlier.

Coffee, I'll ask the question in the generic form so you hopefully feel comfortable answering it publicly: Does a player who had a power negated retain use of the power if/when their day (for example, Rhino) rolls around again? Or is that power gone as if it had been used?

[Coffee Warlord]

If you receive a results PM that says you were utterly unable to use a power that night, you do NOT lose it. If it says stuff along the lines of "you do this, but it doesn't work"', that's a different case.

[st.cronin]

Ok, reading back through the thread, I see I need to clarify something once again:

I did not say my ability was BLOCKED on night 1. One of my abilities was ALTERED.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, what have you been up to night by night? Or are you still insisting on keeping your actions to yourself?

Night 1: power ALTERED by SnDvls. But what were you trying to do and what happened?
Night 2:
Night 3:
Night 4:

I think we are far enough along in the game where we need to have this kind of information to start making judgements on people.

[hoopsguy]

In the interests of full disclosure:

Night 1: sent Ethereal Servant to view SnDlvs. I saw him target Cronin with his power, altering his intent. No info on what Cronin was trying to do, did, or who he was targeting
Night 2: I did not use a power. I had an option to use a day power that would have allowed me to add another vote to someone. But I didn't feel like I had a good enough feel for the candidates that I wanted to hijack the process
Night 3: I protected Cronin, who was the target of someone trying to negate his powers (much like mine were negated last night)
Night 4: I attempted to night kill Path, but someone targeted me to keep me from using any powers

[st.cronin]

Nights 1 and 3 I protected myself. Day 2 I had the duke. Last night, keeping that one to myself for now.

[hoopsguy]

Er, Night 3: I protected Lathum (not Cronin)

I have Cronin on the mind, I guess, since I'm asking him for answers on this stuff. Well, technically I'm asking everyone for answers but he is in the thread at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Nights 1 and 3 I protected myself. Day 2 I had the duke. Last night, keeping that one to myself for now.

So you had the same power for two different days? That sounds odd ... anyone else have duplicate powers?

Also, was your intent Night 1 to protect yourself? If so, what happened instead? If not, what were you initially trying to do?

[st.cronin]

Day 3, I used the ability that had been altered - it was originally something else, became a bodyguard action.

[st.cronin]

I originally had: 1 bodyguard action, 1 duke action, 1 uber-bodyguard action (would protect somebody from everything, not just attack), and 1 other action.

Night 1: bodyguarded myself, had my uber-bodyguard ability downgraded
Day 2: duked the vote
Night 3: bodyguarded myself again

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, that doesn't sound like what Path described. He definitely felt like he got a weaker power as a result of being "altered" on Night 1. I can't think of many powers that are weaker than a bodyguard option.

And you felt like you were the best candidate to guard on both of those days? I understand the "I only trust me" thought process, but the chances of you being a target on Night 3 seemed pretty damn slim from where I sat with Lathum and Schmidty as trusted players and you still having some suspicion (as most of us do).

[st.cronin]

I did get a weaker power. What I had was a bodyguard +. It was changed into a bodyguard.

I've actually never had the bodyguard role in any game, believe it or not. I used the most basic strategy: guard the one person I know is an elemental.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, did you use your power to negate me last night? If you say "no" to that, it still leaves you a fair amount of anonymity about what you did last night.

Also, will someone else be able to see the impact of your action? For example, Swaggs knew that he was negated but not that it was Lathum back at the start of Day 4 (I think). Or was it something that is a personal impact, such as bodyguard (no witness)?

[st.cronin]

No, I didn't do anything like what you described.

I don't know if anybody would have seen what I did or not, but I kind of doubt it.

[hoopsguy]

See, that presents a challenge. You've had four powers, three of them night powers. And none of them can be validated by another player.

In my case, I've had two powers that have been validated by the target (SnDvls and Lathum) and a third that was blocked - the person who blocked me should be able to validate doing so if they are so inclined. This is why I'm having a hard time trusting people who have a lack of verifiable actions. Your Duke is verifiable, but it is a daytime power and doesn't mean anything in terms of tracking you at night when you could be completing kills if you are an Avatar.

I think there are other people who merit at least as much scrutiny (Path for sure, Swaggs to a lesser extent) but they aren't here to answer questions at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, did your power last night help you build trust for anyone?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

See, that presents a challenge. You've had four powers, three of them night powers. And none of them can be validated by another player.

In my case, I've had two powers that have been validated by the target (SnDvls and Lathum) and a third that was blocked - the person who blocked me should be able to validate doing so if they are so inclined. This is why I'm having a hard time trusting people who have a lack of verifiable actions. Your Duke is verifiable, but it is a daytime power and doesn't mean anything in terms of tracking you at night when you could be completing kills if you are an Avatar.

I think there are other people who merit at least as much scrutiny (Path for sure, Swaggs to a lesser extent) but they aren't here to answer questions at the moment.

If you feel you want to vote for me, go ahead. I think that would be a pretty far-out choice, though.

How did Mr. Wednesday get off the hook yesterday? I thought for sure he would be the runaway choice.

[hoopsguy]

MrW - the only way it made sense to go after him is if you bought into the idea that it was Avatar vs Avatar the previous day. After re-reading through the posts I didn't feel that was the case.

Easy to say now, as he is listed as Elemental upon his death. But if you look at my posts yesterday it is pretty clear I was targeting Heinz/Path with Swaggs as a further out 3rd option based on the voting records.

[hoopsguy]

While we are on the topic of MrW, why do you suppose that the Avatars would kill him when there are two trusted players out there in Lathum and Jonathan?

Also, you didn't answer the question about whether your power last night helped you in building trust towards any of the remaining players.

[Lathum]

I think the Mr. Wed kill was bacause the odds of him being guarded were slim

[Coffee Warlord]

To add one thing to the day notice.

The spirit of SnDvls was seen briefly during the night. His spirit was in horrid condition, looking even more battered and beaten than he did in life.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think the Mr. Wed kill was bacause the odds of him being guarded were slim

But the previous night they took the most likely target in Schmidty.

Lathum, do you have anything to report from last night? Are you willing to play along with the posting of actions for each day/night?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

But the previous night they took the most likely target in Schmidty.

Lathum, do you have anything to report from last night? Are you willing to play along with the posting of actions for each day/night?

sure. I had nothing for last night.

Night 1 I used my ability to protect myself.
Night 2 I used my ability that if I was killed I would be reincarnated
Night 3 I used my ability to mess with Swaggs

[hoopsguy]

And you are keeping N4 under wraps as well?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And you are keeping N4 under wraps as well?

Originally Posted by Lathum

sure. I had nothing for last night.

--

[hoopsguy]

Er, reading is hard.

Just didn't have an attractive option for the night, or banking it?

[Lathum]

didn't have an attractice option

[hoopsguy]

1) Barkeep49 - Death by A Very Unhappy Ball of Cheese. (Elemental)
2) hoopsguy
3) claphamsa - Eaten by a Trout. (Avatar of Fear)
4) PurdueBrad - Death by Avatar. And Calamari. (Elemental)
5) path12
6) Jonathan Ezarik
7) saldana - Death by Athlete's Foot. (Human)
8) Lathum
9) Passacaglia - Death by Squid Molestation (Elemental)
10) Swaggs
11) st.cronin
12) jeheinz72 - Death by Rhino charge. Ow. (Elemental)
13) Schmidty - Death by Goo (Elemental)
14) Mr. Wednesday - Death by the TPS Report (Elemental)
15) SnDvls - Death by Exploding Yak (Elemental)

Trying to figure out what we can read from these deaths. PurdueBrad's is clear that he was killed by an Avatar. We know at one point that Saldana was in the game as a 3rd faction but have no idea if he could kill.

Here are the night kills:
Night 1 - PurdueBrad, clearly identified as Avatar
Night 2 - Barkeep, "cheeseball"?
Night 3 - Schmidty "goo"
Night 4 - MrW "TPS report"

Also, Saldana was a day kill - "Athlete's Foot". Just trying to see if we can find anything about the Avatar's through this information. I'm really perplexed by the MrW night kill move.

[hoopsguy]

Best guess I can figure on MrW is that they were concerned about why he forced the Rhino event, and feared he had some kind of power that was threatening to them. I think that makes more sense than "low probability of being guarded" when they took the trusted guy one night earlier.

[Swaggs]

My vote will, unless someone comes out and pins someone else, be for hoops or path.

Hoops looks eager to throw suspicion around today, which smells of desperate wolf. But, I've also had similar feelings in this game, because I honestly feel like accusing most everyone left, so that makes the behavior a little more reasonable.

Path has been totally under the radar, as usual, the entire game. He is one of two (if I'm not mistaken) people that voted for MrW over Clap that are still alive. Plus, I still remember killing us during hoops' super hero game.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, would you be willing to give an action recap for Day/Night 1-4?

I would agree with the strategy of voting for either me or Path today. I just hope that you make the right decision between the two of us.

My vote is on Path and I would need a compelling reason to change it. But with that in mind I still want us to get as much information as possible out there to help make decisions the rest of the way, be it night actions or votes tomorrow. So, yeah, I'm probing hard today.

[Swaggs]

Hoops, with all due respect, I'm not sure it is wise to do a recap in this game. With the powers aligned with the days, I'm not sure we want to hand that info (and who they are tied to) over to the wolves.

[Swaggs]

That said, I'm not opposed to hearing from you and path, because I feel like one of you is, almost certainly, an avatar.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I've posted mine already. If you have any questions for me I'll answer them.

I do think it makes sense to put this information out because I'm concerned with the people whose actions are unverified and unknown. Maybe I partially feel this way because people have been able to vouch for two of my night actions and someone could (if they were so inclined) vouch for inhibiting me last night from acting.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

In the interests of full disclosure:

Night 1: sent Ethereal Servant to view SnDlvs. I saw him target Cronin with his power, altering his intent. No info on what Cronin was trying to do, did, or who he was targeting
Night 2: I did not use a power. I had an option to use a day power that would have allowed me to add another vote to someone. But I didn't feel like I had a good enough feel for the candidates that I wanted to hijack the process
Night 3: I protected Lathum, who was the target of someone trying to negate his powers (much like mine were negated last night)
Night 4: I attempted to night kill Path, but someone targeted me to keep me from using any powers

Here is a re-post of my actions, correcting the error I had from Night 3 earlier (I think it was post 909 or something like that).

[hoopsguy]

Night 1 - SnDvls confirmed my action (recall the Ardent Enthusiast conversation from that day)

Night 3 - Lathum confirmed my action (not that it was me, but I posted details about it that he confirmed)

Night 4 - someone should be able to confirm blocking me if they aren't an Avatar

Let's see if Path is willing to provide similar disclosure.

FWIW, you (Swaggs) didn't vote for Clap either time but you didn't have an impact vote on Day 3 as you left it on Saldana. I also am pretty sure you have your own victory condition related to eliminating humans and think that is more likely to be an Elemental role than an Avatar based on the previous Coffee Warlord game.

[st.cronin]

2) hoopsguy
5) path12
6) Jonathan Ezarik
8) Lathum
10) Swaggs
11) st.cronin

If there are two avatars, which I think is likely, we need to hit one today. Can somebody remind me: Did Jonathan E clear jeheinz, or was it the other way around?

[hoopsguy]

Heinz cleared Jonathan E. I can find the post if needed.

[hoopsguy]

An Elemental should have three people in their circle of trust: themself, Lathum, and Jonathan. This should be valid, barring a conversion or a "cunning wolf" role.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - that information also assumes that the views are "non-Avatar". It doesn't necessarily mean they are Elemental. I would ask for clarification from the people who completed the views, but they are dead (Schmidty and Heinz).

[st.cronin]

Ok, and Schmidty cleared Lathum.

That leaves 1 or 2 avatars from: hoopsguy, path12, swaggs. The vote will probably include me as well.

I still trust path12, due to him having the exact same experience as me night 1. That may prove ill-founded, but its more than I have on the other 2. The saldana/Swaggs thing makes me uneasy, but I'm not sure if it makes me want to vote for Swaggs or not.

[Swaggs]

stcronin, can you recap the reason that you have path in your CoT?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Oh, by the way, I trust Lathum. Other than that, I'm not sure what to do as far as a vote.

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Dola.

And yes, I did spy on Lathum last night, and was given the STRONG impression that he was good. I also saw what power he was using.

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I can honestly say that I don't know what an Ethereal Spirit is, so I guess. My abilities are based upon what the daily sign is (i.e. Yak, Squid, etc.). Yesterday was Squid, which allowed me to see everything a person did at night.

If that makes you trust me, awesome (if you're good). If not, oh well. I don't know what else to say.

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I don't know if there are avatar-shades and such, but I can say last nigh that I scanned Jonathan Ezerik and he came back Elemental.

Here are all the posts that I was able to locate on the views of Lathum by Schmidty and Jonathan by Heinz.

[st.cronin]

Night 1, SnDvls performed an action on me. This action was very accurately described by path as something that happened to him, as well, that same night. It was never revealed who did that to path.

Now, path could be bad if:

1. Avatars have the same abilities as elementals, and somebody who is dead did something to him. Based on clap's play, it seems unlikely that avatars and elementals ahve the same sort of abilities. But, I'm really not sure - the opening post describes them as "scary things" that can do "bad stuff," or something.

2. Alternately, path, as an avatar, may have had some ability to read my pm (or SnDvls pm, I suppose).

[st.cronin]

Hm, that's actually not a very convincing clear of Lathum.

[Swaggs]

FWIW, I also trust Lathum, a bit.

I know he was not the killer on Night 3 (I believe), because he cast a block on me and quickly fessed up to it.