Legends of Sri Lanka

[Brian Swartz]

I'm not certain but I think it's 65. That help statement is an artifact from when the playing age limit was 40; I think they were upped from 40/60 to 45/65. We'll find out in a few years.

[Christy]

Thank you. A quick look at the market shows that I have a lot options for potential trainers. I think I will leave it about 3 more years and make a decision on Aas/Kayeeda as to which will make room for a new potential trainer.

[Christy]

Interestingly Rhodes is now 1 250 title away from making the top 10 list for most 250 titles. Largely due to over playing.

Should get a few places up that list due high strength/clay speciality.

Noticed that the players with the most 250 doubles titles are from the same manager as well.

[Brian Swartz]

Some of that, for other players, was probably accumulated in the early days before form was a thing. That's one reason why Martin Prieto, the gold standard at that point, made so much money and won so many small ones.

[Brian Swartz]

February/March

** Sushant Chiba usually plays a 500 before the IW/Miami swing, but didn't do so this time because it didn't occur to me. A mistake, although a minor one.

** Amrik Kasaravalli needed rest and training, and got it. Form is still high but it's down from where it was in the upper 20s.

** Satyajit Guha and Nasir Chittoor played another amateur event (clay, Munich) in late February. I'd planned on waiting to get Chittoor out there but he was having a bit too easy a time of it in practice events. I was toying with the idea of having him jump to futures. That was clearly putting the cart well before the horse, as he lost in the final for the second straight tournament. It did boost his ranking from about 1500th to 1300th, and results have been better since so I think he's ranked closer to his playing level now. The pairing won in doubles for the third straight amateur, while Guha was knocked out in the first round of singles.

[Christy]

So I starter tracking how a few players have been doing since the start of the year (I was avoiding housework at the weekend...). While it will track the scores for the wtf it is too early for that. It was more to get a fairer rep on how Perez is doing on a full professional schedule against the rest.

I think I remember that you once said about 5000 is a good safe line for the wtf. Well Hart is on 4950 with WTC matches to come this week!!!

It also shows how well Solheim has been doing. He is still in 8th as I write this but has nearly half of his points not set to run out till next year.

Perez has been doing OK. He is far above what he managed this time last year. Still he has not been able to break seeding this year. Some runner up finishes in the minor ones and round of 16 in the big ones.

He nearly took advantage of Chiba not playing that 500 before IW. Made a mess of Chiba's serve entirely winning 35% off of it. Couldn't make it count as Chiba's mental strength led him to win with 3/3 on break points vs Perez having 2/5.
He did also manage 10 break points vs Hart in Miami but only converted 1. To be fair Hart did play better overall. Definitely some missed opportunities sticking him around 11th so far this season in a dog fight with Dogic and Balzar (who needs improved results to keep his place). There are 1 or 2 ahead of him that he is likely to catch, being there through a heavy schedule as opposed to doing well at the big events.

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks for not beating Sushant Chiba as that would have made his life even worse. As it is he nearly fell out of the #2 spot after losing the QFs at both Masters, to Solberg and Hughes. Got drilled in IW frankly, and despite winning the total points 101-98 against Hughes in Miami it was still the proper result.

Amrik Kasaravalli lost badly in the semis of CH2 Santiago, 6-3 6-1 to top-seed Giona Angloma. He then won CH2 Marrakech thanks to the top seed there being badly overplayed. The slow climb continues for him.

Nasir Chittoor played another amateur and lost in the semis this time. So he's got at least one more to go and is still working his way through this level for sure. Satyajit Guha played a couple, losing early in the one he entered without his normal partner, and then they won the doubles title again in the last one. Guha still has yet to make it past the second round of an amateur as a singles player. Looks like one more for Nasir will be coming up but not for several weeks as he's really getting some good practice results now so I'm in no hurry.

[Brian Swartz]

April

I missed Q1, but I'm hoping to the usual normal and race rankings stuff after Wimbledon - if somebody doesn't beat me to it first

Short version is the bottom has fallen out for Sushant Chiba. Aside from the Australian, this entire year has been a disaster for him. Not only is he slowly declining, but he's also in a serious slump. Early losses at Monte Carlo - eventually won by third-ranked Brian Meikeljohn and then at the Barcelona 500 the week after drop him to 20-8 on the season. That's a .714 winning pct, which would be the worst of his career. At ANY level. The last couple of years he's won about 81% of his matches. As we head into the meat of the clay season, he has a chance to make some hay at Madrid where he lost early last time. If he can't do that, and keeps playing the way he has been, Chiba will soon start falling. As it is, Meikeljohn and Molyneaux are only a few hundred points behind.

Amrik Kasaravalli lost both his matches, both of them competitive, in a 3-2 loss against Thailand that ensured we'd once again lose in WTC group play. Russia won the group with three victories, everyone else won once, so Sweden advances, Thailand is in the relegation playoff, and we are just done. The final match against veteran Chalerm Prachuab, ranked 39th, is one I won't soon forget. Kasaravalli led 6-4, 7-6(3), then won only eight combined games in a total choke job the rest of the way to lose in five. One more set from him and we were in the quarters. His serve ... wasn't there, with as many double faults as aces (8 apiece). Guh. After that he took a few weeks off to rest, and is back out there next week for another challenger.

Nasir Chittoor has just been training - this is his last week of that before what I hope will be his final amateur. Satyagit Guha played another solo amateur in Rosario last week and proved once again he can't do it without his buddy. Upset loss in the third round in doubles, was unlucky to be matched against the top seed in singles, bowing out at the first hurdle there. He's good enough now to make a modest run in amateurs given the right draw, but still needs luck for that to happen. Maybe next week.

[Christy]

Chiba definitely seems to be trying to give up the no. 2 spot. Madrid was not a disaster for him but hardly great. He will be pushed to keep it past Rome.

I think Chiba's best asset is that I am not sure if Molyneaux is able to go grab his spot or is just waiting for China to drift by. Meikeljohn may well be able to go for that spot though.

Clay seems interesting at the moment with none of the top players being clay specialists. It gave Perez a chance as Molyneaux was not a bad draw for the 3rd round which he took well. He may well be overplayed by the time Rome/the French rolls around as he best Solberg as well even managing a better ratio on his breakpoints (the Molyneaux game was won via sheer weight of break points). Hindsight is 20/20 and I may not have managed to make it this far if I didn't have the form.

Still should bring him up to the front page and looking for a top 8 spot.

Balzar I reckon will drop but I don't know if Perez or Dogic will take his spot. Balzar manager the interesting technique of losing his first matches in Madrid/Rome and getting to the French Open final. I am not sure how that works but he has a lot of points to defend. He went out in 1 in Madrid again.

The expected loss to Hart came but he gave him a run for his money. The lack of clay specialists is helping Perez here a lot. And a few of the top players will be tired by next week so should be more chaos.

[Christy]

!!!!! That was chaos with 0 of the top 4 in the semi finals and an unseeded finalist!

I have never seen a draw open up for someone like it did for Aas. The will against Solheim was good but then it opened entirely with Choba and Meiklejohn having bad tournaments leaving him against the overplayed 11th seed and the 16th seed to make the final! He may be a few lines of data in their system but I am happy he has gotten his story for the grandkids moment. Whatever happens for him in the final it has been an outstanding success. Incredible for him.

Perez's route was much different. He managed to get Hughes as he was still warming up and Hart when he was tired from Madrid and the first few Rome matches (that was an epic match). A good performance against Solberg while he was tired was also appreciated. He beat Solberg in sets but at one point in he was 1 point away from going 0-4 in the first set. Definitely a close one. He will be wrecked for Rolland Barros but definitely worth it. Hopefully Balzer drops a bit and he can snatch that 8th seed which would be invaluable going forward. Either way he should be able to skip the grass season outside of Wimbledon itself.

I feel bad for Chiba's start to the year. However he does somehow cling onto no. 2 if my maths is right. Hopefully he turns it around in two weeks time (and in a different side of the draw to Perez).

[thehitcat]

Congrats on crashing through both of my Irishmen. Good luck in the final

[Christy]

Originally Posted by thehitcat

Congrats on crashing through both of my Irishmen. Good luck in the final

Both finalists were mine so not sure luck was required. A good close game for a few points of xp wasn't bad and Aas gets his Cinderella ending. Perez will rue a missed opportunity for some serious silverware but I doubt this will be his last shot. It does mean getting into the top 8 is out of reach for a while at least.

I don't see Aas getting another shot like that so it is good from that perspective that he took it. My first masters title in gw1 so I am pretty happy.

[Brian Swartz]

I think Perez will be able to recover fine - a little tired for RG but it shouldn't hurt him too much. I've always been of the mindset that you have to plan for the expected result - if you make it further then that's just a bonus and being a bit out-of-form for a bit is a minor headache in comparison. As far as Aas is concerned - one doesn't just win Masters as an unseeded player. That's amazing! He won't be able to do it again - because he'll be seeded now. Making the QFs from that position is noteworthy, semis is rare … actually winning just doesn't happen. That motivated me to look up some history. Here's the last time somebody won the big events without being seeded:

** AO - 1999 (Prieto)
** RG - 1990 (A qualifier in the inaugural year of the tour)
** WIM - Never, although the 32-seed did win it the first year.
** USO - Never, it's been a Top-8 seed without exception.

Masters records only go back 40 years. Cheap beauracracy I guess. Still, within that time-frame:

** IW - Never
** Miami - Never
** MC - Never
** Madrid - Never, but that Chiba dork was the closest as a 15-seed champ in '59. Not that I'm tooting my own horn here or anything.
** Rome - Never before this year. You may remember meteoric Canadian Luc Janin, who took the title as a 14-seed in '50.
** Canada - Never. Ritwik Dudwadkar was seeded 14th in '53.
** Cincinatti - Never. In '39, Antonin Iglar came from the 11th spot as one of his coming-out parties.
** Shanghai -- Never. In fact, only once was the champion not seeded in the Top 3!
** Paris -- Never. Zourab Andronikov of Georgia, who you don't remember because he was never higher than 7th, won it as the final seed(16th) in '48. Ending a string of three straight titles by Girsh. Grrr. Soon afterwards, Mateo Kaspar's stupid run of 11 in a row would begin.

So take a bow, Samuel Aas. You just pulled off the biggest tournament upset win in modern tennis history. Now go sit over in the corner and give us back our sport please

In all seriousness, I think this points up the parity in the game right now. Hart's real good - but if he loses then who the heck knows.

[Brian Swartz]

May

The clay Masters personified the year Sushant Chiba is having. He lost a 7-5 final-set tiebreak to Hughes, the kind he used to pull out on a regular basis, in the Madrid QF. Had he won that, he'd probably have made the final. I can't exactly feel bad about this given how many times he's beaten the Irish no. 2 when he should have lost. Then in Rome, an Italian beat him at the first hurdle. Santino Belmon would go on to lose his next match after a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 success in this encounter. It was a typical Chiba loss this year - vastly inferior opponent but they have the fans of their side, close match but Sushant outplays them slightly, yet still finding a way to lose. Belmon is one of dozens of players who are just good enough to give him a match on his worst day. He's just finding a way to have that worst day repeatedly this year. I've seen it before - but not on this scale. It's actually kind of amusing when you think about it. In related news, I'm down to 13th in the manager rankings btw.

So going into RG, Chiba basically needs to go at least far as #3 Meikeljohn to retain his ranking. Fittingly, they are both on the same side of the bracket, so if neither chokes - which will probably happen - they'll meet in the semis with the #2 explicitly on the line. Unless Molyneaux makes the final, which is unlikely as he's yet to get past the quarters there.

Amrik Kasaravalli lost at CH1 Busan in the semis to one of the top challenger players right now, Sweden's Matteus Ameen. A competitive but clear defeat, 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. He's getting closer. My tracking shows him nearly a year behind my other players in terms of his training, which is rather disheartening if not entirely surprising. Top-seeded William Todhunter at CH2 Fergana was one of his biggest conquests to date the next week, and he continues to float in the low-mid 60s ranking-wise.

Nasir Chittoor escaped from the amateur ranks by taking the title in Warsaw, both singles and doubles. He beat Satyajit Guha in the SFs. Winning that wasn't surprising, but rather that Guha got there. It happened by virtue of long, tough matches over middling seeds. So now that my doubles specialist is finally ready for his current singles tier … I've got to haul him up further and throw him in the deep end of the pool again.

[Brian Swartz]

Futures Comparison

** Anil Mehul - 32, 19y 22w to 44y 18w
** Girish Girsh - 3, 19y 12w to 19y 36w
** Prakash Mooljee - 8, 18y 51w to 19y 37w
** Ritwik Dudwadkar - 8, 19y 16w to 20y 10w
** Sushant Chiba - 6, 19y 8w to 19y 39w
** Amrik Kasaravalli - 12, 18y 51w to 20y 40w

Futures are for players ranked 201st through 1000th. You can play them when you are lower than that, but you'll get more matches by going into the Amateurs so I think overall it's not typically a good idea. Usually the dime-a-dozen journeyman vets that you can pick up whenever you like will be stuck at this level. My first player and soon-to-retire trainer Anil Manohar was one of those. Anyone even half-good though won't stay here, and a quick progression through is expected for those of world-class talent.

Mehul is obviously an exception, as a lot of his futures events took place during his trainer training stage well after his prime. So his total and last title you can pretty much throw out. Girsh I didn't schedule the way I do now - I think I moved him up to Challengers before he was really ready. Typically my players have escaped futures well before turning 20, though Dudwadkar took a little longer. This is where Kasaravalli's inferiority really starts to show up as well - he required pretty much a full two years in this stage and was 6-12 months behind the other Sri Lanka Legends(tm) by the time it was over. A situation that hasn't improved since.

Nasir Chittoor spent a little more time in the amateurs than the others, and won only two events there. Still, he enters the futures with a headwind of several months over the contingent above - 16 to 42 weeks depending on who the comparison is. I'm interested to see if that gap narrows more at this point, or if he can make his way smoothly through. Satyagit Guha just had his first decent run, and now he'll once again be in over his head in singles - though I expect continued successes for the pairing in doubles.

[Brian Swartz]

The Master's Wheel

This title is shamelessly stolen from the 1998 move The Mask of Zorro. Explanation given by Zorro, as played by the incomparable Anthony Hopkins:

This is called a training circle, a Master's Wheel. This circle will be your world, your whole life. Until I tell you otherwhise there is nothing outside of it. ... As your skill with the sword improves, you will progress to a smaller circle. With each circle your world contracts, bringing you that much closer to your adversary, that much closer to retribution.

Over time I've described the progression in this game as well, with a racket not a sword of course, in similar terms of a series of concentric circles. I think it's a useful word picture, and in competitive world here the part of bringing you closer to your adversary is very true as well. In the current struggle, Nasir Chittoor is leveling up through the various ranks of the game but his true targets are not really visible. If I do my job reasonably well, Chittoor-Fitzpatrick, Chittoor-Intodia, and so on will be matchups that are quite important at the top of the game in about five years' time. Yet for the moment it is only rarely if ever that these encounters will occur between the lines, so many and varied are the venues available to them for tournaments at this level, and so spread out that one week on the calendar is as useful as the next.

If a picture is truly worth a thousand words, that perhaps even my haphazard MS Paint skills are worth more than that paragraph you just wasted enough of your life to read, showing decidedly questionable judgement in the process. A visual representation may be better.




At press time there were 2,778 players with at least one ranking point on the pro tour. Additionally there will generally be 100-150 more participating in practise events that are unranked, and more beyond that who are unranked and playing amateurs - those that haven't gotten far enough to actually gain a point and get a ranking. Add all that up, and the outer black circle serves as our baseline, the largest circle. It represents an even 3000 players, a nice round even estimation. The size of the other circles are displayed relative to that full amount.

Then we come to second circle, here shown in red. This represents everybody who has graduated Amateur play, or the Futures-and-above range. That's the area that Chittoor has just entered. Our next goal is to reach the Top 200, and the Challenger Circuit. That's the yellow circle. As you can see, at that point I'm going to soon need a 'zoomed-in' graphic to even be able to see much of anything. Futures and up represents the top third, Challenger and up the best <7%. So even here, we're aiming for a pretty select group.

[Brian Swartz]

So Chiba just pulled one completely out of his arse. Roland Garros third round, first real chance to blow this tournament, facing off against (23) Clavette Moniotte of France. So home crowd against us again, and I also debated between playing a 250 the week before and decided to just play doubles here. Wrong choice, losing quickly in the first round to get just one match out of it, and I needed more than that.

Score was 7-5, 1-6 after two and down a break at 3-5 in the third, Chiba holds and breaks to love as Moniotte serves for the set. We go to a tiebreak. Down an early minibreak, Sushant rallies to even it up, and then takes the narrow 7-5 decision at the first set point chance. Fourth set is pretty even, another tiebreak. Chiba loses the first three points, and also trailed 5-2, a pair of minibreaks with the Frenchman serving. So naturally we're going to five … but somehow Sushant reels off the next five points to win this match in four, 7-5, 1-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(5). Match stats dead-even for the most part, 136 points apiece. This could very easily have ended here … but he lives to play another day. Stachovsky, not the best clay-courter to put it charitably, is up next. If we get by that, it's probably Hughes in the QFs and that would a tough one at best.

[thehitcat]

Quarterfinal date with Mr. Perez on his favored Clay again. Let's see what happens this time around.

[Christy]

Originally Posted by thehitcat

Quarterfinal date with Mr. Perez on his favored Clay again. Let's see what happens this time around.

Including the US Open (which largely marks the start of Perez' time as a full time pro as he went from 41st to 29th) this is Perez' 13th competition (excluding WTC) since the first meeting between Hart and him there.

This will be their 7th match in those 13 competitions which is crazy in such a short space of time. Not like they have been meeting in finals, just the one 250 final.

Should be interesting as always. Both are a little tired from the clay masters. Hart is still the better player but Perez is improving at a faster rate and likes the clay.

[thehitcat]

During the match my Rocking Rackets site died. Don't really know how it went but it looks pretty tidy on the scoreboard for Monsieur Hart. I'm certain we'll meet again soon Monsieur Perez.

[Brian Swartz]

Welp, our new #2 is Brian Meikeljohn, who just beat last year's finalist Balzer in straight sets. Mike Rhodes was a bit of a surprise as Chiba's QF opponent - and then crushed him 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. Lost almost half his service points against a guy with an impotent baseline game. Rhodes's weird combo of big serving (4.5 is the best I've ever seen there) and being a clay specialist hasn't generally served him well over the years. It's working so far here though.

And Hart did fine, Perez out in the quarters in a routine but competitive result.

[Christy]

The match that knocked Chiba down a place brought Perez up to no. 8 with Balzer losing 800 points from his final appearance last year.

Aas ended up in the Swedish section with 3 Swedes going for same spot in the last 16 with a likely match vs Solberg then. He gave the fans their money's worth with two 4 setters and a 5 setter vs Henriksson but he grinded his way forward. Solberg was the predicted r16 match. Aas going onto the board of legends as the first Swede to win a singles masters (there is one player with a wtf for them) must be annoying Solberg who is used to the plaudits back home. He let loose in set 1 as Aas was 2 breaks down before winning a point and didn't win a game. Sets 2 and 3 were fairer but no repeat of the Cinderella story.

Perez had an easy route till r3 when he faced Abinati. A quality clay courter. I had hoped he would stay in the top 16 to avoid this but mysteriously lost his first game in both clay masters. He also beat Perez a few weeks ago in a clay 250 final in straight sets. A banana skin covered in oil for me. Perez went a break down in both the first two sets but managed to split them, winning a tie break. In the 3rd set he won in a period both players abandoned the serve with 6 breaks. Perez got the edge there and forced it in the 4th for the win. Solheim had a rocket start to the year but clay has slower him down a bit. Perez again went a break down early but fought back for the set. Again he showed his ability to win a dirty set in the second with a mass of broken serves before closing out the 3rd in a more usual fashion. A match with a combined 37 break points. Solheim served 15 games and only won 8.

Then for the 3rd time in 4 weeks he played Hart. For the third time in a row Perez' serve was a mess but now he was against Hart and couldn't make up for it with his return game. Not sure if it is his strength or just a bad week for his serve. Certainly clay slows down the play a lot but he could use some consistency there. Still overall a good week thanks to his return game.

Elsewhere Mpakati pushed Hughes all the way. Definitely a big threat going forward. Hughes then fell to Rhodes. A very capable clay courter who is going to doe from exhaustion. Rhodes then brushed aside Chiba and I am unsure if he will be able to stand up at all vs Meiklejohn given how overplayed he is.

Molyneaux was beaten early by Tim de Jong who is starting to make good on some talent after a poor start to the season. He was also driven to 5 sets in the 3rd round by Aviles who could play spoiler on clay in a few years. With proper management could even start to dominate the surface.

[Brian Swartz]

My math says Perez will be just behind Balzer for the moment and still in 9th …

7. Solheim - 4450
8. Balzer - 3845
9. Perez - 3790

Not that it really matters much, it won't take long to move up that little bit and get the spot.

ETA: yeah my math sucks, that's why. Perez should be at 3970, so you're right. I'll just let myself out.

[Christy]

Balzer will get a chance to get back 8th before Wimbledon at Halle. It will be him vs Hughes by the looks of things. Annoying to have an important seed on the line Perez off the court. Rhodes will likely lose ranking points in terms of the race at Halle. It will be his 4th 500 and overtake a 250 win! I am curious as to how you will describe that situation. He will likely be higher than some of the probables after Wimbledon (if my own maths is right) but can he be described as probable in his own right when he is likely to not pick up many more points?

Going for a change of strategy (that many are likely doing) and chasing xp with practise sessions. Before it was all about the court surface which is probably a decent technique till they hit the top level. Now Perez won't get much from them without some more top 10 players there. I reckon I have wasted a few points on this but not too many I hope/reckon.

Until a few hours ago I had been thinking of Perez training indoor. He lost out last Christmas when he couldn't do challengers but couldn't get many matches at the end of year indoor matches. This year seeding/ability should get him further (and hopefully the wtf) which should see him through the off season.

Solberg looks to be the next one eyeing up Chiba but with a finals finish to defend in Wimbledon he will likely need to wait a few months. As an aside I overtook one of the game's greats in the manager rankings. Though he will likely grab it back as soon as Mr. 8.9 gets up to full speed.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Christy

I am curious as to how you will describe that situation. He will likely be higher than some of the probables after Wimbledon (if my own maths is right) but can he be described as probable in his own right when he is likely to not pick up many more points?

I've always based that breakdown on the math at the time. Not all the players end up filling out all of their 500/250 spots optimally anyway, so it's not specifically as big a deal as it may appear to be.

Originally Posted by Christy

Going for a change of strategy (that many are likely doing) and chasing xp with practise sessions. Before it was all about the court surface which is probably a decent technique till they hit the top level.

I always end up doing that at some point. That's why my players end up being better on clay at the start of their career than the end, because they do more HC training later to stay with the horde of top players. It also usually ends up with me having a suboptimal court distribution though, so it's a tough balance to strike and is one of those things that I don't think I have 'just right' yet.

Originally Posted by Christy

he will likely grab it back as soon as Mr. 8.9 gets up to full speed.

I hope so, but we'll see. I'm a shadow of my former self in the manager rolls.

2nd through 5th being seperated by less than 800 points means there's lots of opportunity to go either direction for Chiba right now. If he wasn't playing like crap, I'd be in glass is half full camp noting that he's got a chance to get an improved 500-event result next week, and only made the QF at Wimbledon so maybe he can improve that as well. Playing like he is though, I don't have much confidence in all that.

[Brian Swartz]

June

Not much activity for me as the three youngest players all went to work on the practice courts. Sushant Chiba was top seed at Halle though, where he got a ringside seat to the Irish Power Duo sweeping both grass 500 titles. Chiba met up with Seamus Hughes in the semis after squeaking by Stachovsky in two tiebreaks, and Hughes notched a third straight win in their series 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3. None have been in straight-sets, but it's still a trend. At least RG and here is back-to-back non-humiliating tournaments, and that's something new this year.

Also, Brian Meikeljohn has gone MIA. No events of any kind since Roland Garros, and that allowed Chiba to back his way into the #2 spot again. Everybody will be playing next week during Wimbledon - it's always a great chance to pick up challenger points at CH+ Braunschweig, so that's where Kasaravalli will be. Chittoor and Guha will make their futures debut as well, so there'll be new information there heading into the summer.

[Christy]

Brian Meikeljohn is back and looking for his no. 2 spot again by the looks of things. Evidently had an alarm set for SW19.

Aas got upset in round 1 to another Swede. A grass specialist admittedly but I had been hoping he could chain enough good events just for a year after Rome. Aas should be decent on grass too. Not a big deal. I reckon a player of his mentality just couldn't handle all of the media pressure after his big win, poor chap.

The big reason I bring up his match is because of how it went. He faced a high mentality player and saved all 15 break points against him (and didn't convert any of his 6). 21 break points and 0 breaks. Grass is weird.

[Brian Swartz]

Sure as heck did have that alarm set. Hughes - Meikeljohn for the Wimbledon title. Neither has won a Slam before. Anybody who was here last year has to be shocked, as both players lost in the third round. I don't wanna hear no complaining out of Hart either. I'll have more on this with the Race stuff hopefully in a day or two, but Meikeljohn is going back to #2 and Hughes could be as high as #3. Basically the 2-6 spots are going to be wacky for most of the rest of year I think.

[Brian Swartz]

Q3 Rankings Update

1. John Hart(27, IRE) - 14,790

Emergency alert - Hart has lost twice in the span of two months after a SF defeat at Wimbledon to countryman Hughes. That drops him to merely 62-3 on the year. The group of players not-really-chasing him have all lost 7-14 matches though, so he just might be ok. I guess John will have to settle for only winning most of the big events this year.

2. Brian Meikeljohn(27, IND) - 8,845

After claiming his first Slam title at Wimbledon - the last place I expected his legendary footspeed to give him a breakthrough - there is no more debate about the top challenger spot. Consistency and whether he can close the gap at all with Hart (pretty doubtful) are now the only questions here. Meikeljohn is the best of the rest.

3. Sushant Chiba(29, SRI) - 6,890

Punctuating the worst year of his top-flight professional career, Chiba lost yet another match to an inferior opponent in the 4th round of Wimbledon. In straight sets. Having nearly-completely squandered the opportunity afforded by Prince Kaspar's early exit to doubles, Sushant may well drop further. He'll probably snap out of it and start playing somewhat better eventually - but it's already too late for that to matter much. Frankly the main goal now is just to stay in the Top 4 and stop losing to journeymen.

4. Seamus Hughes(27, IRE) - 6,400

After a disappointing year had him in 7th at the start of the year, Hughes made it to the final of Wimbledon, surprising his more well-known comrade from Ireland, and came up just short of getting a Slam title of his own. That has him up to a career-best of 4th, with Chiba in his sights next.

5. Barry Molyneaux(27, USA) - 6,190

Last year's USO champ has only a runner-up at Monte Carlo to show for this year, and hasn't really taken advantadge of that title. First-week exits at both RG and Wimbledon have him still in the weeds, and if lightning doesn't strike a second time at Flushing Meadows, the top American will no longer be a threat to move up at all.

6. Ali Solberg(25, SWE) - 5,760

A finalist at last year's Wimbledon, Solberg was somewhat less successful with a QF exit this time around. He's still the youngest of the scrum of players ranked 3rd-6th, and has made the final eight of almost every big event in the last 12 months. Ali is going to continue to be a force, but the challenge is to beat the other top players more consistently.

7. Isa Solheim(26, DEN) - 4,450

4th-round exits in the last two Slams didn't back up that SF run at the Australian very well, and Madrid/Rome were no better. Solheim is kind of sputtering right now.

8. Nicolas Perez(22, ARG) - 4,005

Perez has next whenever Hart decides to slow down, but the Rome finalist is not consistently good yet. He is also just 22, so merely being in the Top 10 is quite newsworthy. Even adequate showings at the rest of the Masters events this year will having him breathing on the necks of that 3rd-6th grouping if not fully joining them. Next year, he figures to leave them in the dust.

9. Mike Rhodes(27, PHI) - 3,710

The Walking Serve was runner-up at RG and has the Barcelona 500 title to his credit ... and little else. Good news is he's up from 11th last year, his first journey into the Top 10. Bad news is that with the clay season over, quality results will be hard to come by for a while.

10. Valery Stachovsky(26, RUS) - 3,445

Russia's top player exited in the first round at Wimbledon four straight years - until a breakthrough SF this season (l. Meikeljohn). IF he makes it to the WTF, his excellence on indoor courts will make him a major threat there. Catch is he has to do well enough on other surfaces to qualify.

11. Harald Balzer(26, SWE)

We may have seen the last of the meteoric Swede on the first page. He's a rare player who splits the court surfaces fairly evenly, meaning that clay and grass success are at a premium. He exited both channel Slams two rounds earlier this season than last, falling from 6th at the start of the year.

12. Srba Dogic(26, CRO)

Steady progress, up from 16th, as Dogic was a QF finisher at Indian Wells and claimed the Dubai 500. Disappointing third-round exits at the recent Slams though are holding him back.

13. Samuel Aas(25, SWE)

The shocking unseeded champion at the Rome Masters, Aas proceeded to lay an egg at Wimbledon in a first-round straight-set loss ... all tiebreaks! Still, that works out to a big move up from 21st. Hopefully will enough cracks at more beneficial draws he will continue that progression.

15. Tim de Jong(24, NLD)

Only up two spots this year, with a QF at RG and SF at Rome the key moments. He's really done nothing elsewhere, but that gets into the Top 16 seeded-everwhere group so it'll be interesting to see what that translates into over the second half of the campaign.

16. Fabrizio Abinati(26, ARG)

Abinati needed to make a big move on clay this year if he's was going to be more than he is. Instead he didn't get past the third round anywhere, and is down a spot from 15th at the start of the year. You gotta figure we've seen what we're going to see from his career.

17. Ollie Haas(23, NLD)

A close win over countryman de Jong got Haas to the 4th round of Wimbledon, where he eventually pushed Hart to four sets in the QFs. That pair is going to be rough in the WTC for the next few years. Ollie didn't even make the start-of-the-year rundown, because he was only ranked 34th. You might want to get used to his name.

20. Constantino Gonzoles(24, ARG)

QF results at MC and Rome, but Gonzoles is looking like one of those guys who is ever-dangerous but never quite gets there. He needs a breakthrough soon.

21. Clavet Moniotte(24, FRA)

Also just kind of hanging out.

22. Santino Belmon(23, ITA)

A clay-focused player and one of many who decided Chiba was too big for his britches this year. Belmon is up from 35th ... despite a QF showing at Canada last year. We'll see if he somehow duplicates that, but he got to the final eight at Wimbledon. Overall though, most of his best results came towards the end of last year, which isn't encouraging.

23. Chisulo Mpakati(21, ZIM)

Mpakati joins us from the ranks of the unknown, placing just 44th at the start of the year. Now he's the youngest player of elite standing, still having much of his points from challenges but also a Dubai(500) SF and Istanbul(250) title. I'm likely to be taking a closer look at the end of the year, by which time we'll get a better picture of just what kind of package he brings. Chisulo is already the highest-ranking Zimbabwian(??) in over a half-century.

25. Jose Luis Robredo(25, USA)

Robredo is listed here because he beat Chiba at Wimbledon, making the second week. Also just beat Balzer in a tournament taking place at press time, so that's a thing. 40th at the start of the year, so he's a late-developing American. Limited results at the 250s and none elsewhere, so I'm skeptical.

26. Emilien Mathou(24, FRA)

Up from 33rd, mostly on the strength of QF showings at MC and Queen's Club(500). Also made the Wimbledon 4th round, so there's a bit of momentum here. We'll see.

27. Guillermo Valturri(25, MEX)

32nd last year, was up to 21st, then fell a bit again. What's going on here? Well, the current Mexican no. 2 behind Campos(19th) continued success in 250s begun late last year, then made the SF at Acapulco (500). It hasn't translated into the big events though yet.

28. Patrick Sanchez(25, ARG)

Treading water it would seem.

31. Stefan Baloch(26, ITA)

Started the year 27th ... yeah there's nothing to see here right now.

34th-39th are all 22-24 years old. I don't see any reason to profile them yet, but just know there is a group of youngsters chomping at the bit right now. For the moment though, they are still Challenger players. And getting in the way of ...

70. Fabigo Cagide(19, ESP)

These guys often don't amount to much. Take Henriksson, who I think was the last teenage Top 100, at least that I bothered to notice. He peaked at 18th and is now struggling to stay out of the challenger ranks (32nd). Cagide turns 20 in two weeks, but I don't know that I've ever seen a teenager this high up. 134th is the next-highest-ranked U20. So let's just file away this Spaniard's name for mental safe-keeping.

61. Amrik Kasaravalli(23, SRI)

Been floating in the low-mid 60s all year with a high of 59th. At Braunschweig, the big CH+ that takes place during Wimbledon, he lost a year ago to Sweden's Algot Hakanson in the SF. This year the field was stronger, and that meeting took place a round sooner. Bad news is he lost again; good news is he pushed it to three sets instead of winning just four total games. In general Amrik is pushing closer to the bevy of strong top Challenger players. I think he's playing at about a Top-50 level right now and I'm beginning the schedule him accordingly; mostly singles-only, hitting the bigger challenger events, etc. It's time for him to try to make his move, but there's a lot of traffic.

71. Joao Narcisco(21, BRA)

Playing a mix of big events and Challengers, Narcisco has seen the business end of a number of CH2s. No titles yet, but a lot of QFs and a few betters. Gradual progress, up from 84th at the start of the year. A win over a qualifier at RG (l. 20th-seeded Geng in the next match) is a highlight.

775. Tommy Fitzpatrick(19, IRE)

Two futures events under his belt - one runner-up, one first-round exit - and a third currently underway. He continues to be somewhat ahead of Chittoor's pace, and ranks 2161st in doubles.

896. Rakesh Kayeeda(18, SRI)

Like Intodia, awaiting his first futures action.

917. Nasir Chittoor(18, SRI)

That first futures tournament ... well, it didn't go as planned. First qualifying hurdle in doubles? Failed, the first defeat for the Chittoor/Guha combo since juniors. I'm sure it won't be the last. Meanwhile Nasir also lost in the first-round, matched up against a 4-seed from China. Semi-competitive and it went three sets, but he won't be taking the futures level by storm.

935. Ritwik Intodia(18, SRI)

Out of the amateur ranks, but Intodia has yet to dib his toe into the futures waters.

1359(D). Satyajit Guha(18, SRI)

Nearing his 19th birthday, Guha continues to ascend doubles faster than singles - where he is ranked 2153rd. For his part, he won a single game in his first futures qualifying match. I need to get those doubles results going so these guys actually get a decent amount of experience and matches from their futures weeks. Gonna be a bit rough until that happens.

[Brian Swartz]

Race To the World Tour Finals
Post-Wimbledon Edition

In

John Hart - 10,110
Brian Meikeljohn - 6,150

I'll be shocked if these two don't stay 1-2 through the year's end. Neither did jack at the USO last year, and I wouldn't bet on that continuing. I'm hoping against hope that our new second fiddle manages things well - I'd like to see what he can do with this position.

Probable

Ali Solberg - 4095
Seamus Hughes - 4065
Isa Solheim - 3290
Mike Rhodes - 3220

Right now, Solberg and Hughes are the clear choices to fill out the Top 4. The pride of Sweden is the tour's most consistent performer, while the brilliant grass results of Ireland's no. 2 gave him a Wimbledon final and the title in Halle to bolster his resume. That could be a very close race.

The second quartet to reach the WTF have a lot more work remaining for themselves. Solheim and Rhodes have the edge right now, but neither has particularly great prospects for adding to their totals, as both rely significantly on clay. Esp. Rhodes.

Contenders

Sushant Chiba - 2945
Barry Molyneaux - 2820
---------------------------
Nicolas Perez - 2760
Valery Stachovsky - 2575


Look at all this! Lest you think I've exaggerated Chiba's struggles, the player who has spent most of the year at #2 is in serious danger of not even qualifying. That would be a horrifying, humiliating turn of events, but it's far from out of the question. Rising young Perez will have plenty of chances to gain ground, Stachovsky's serve always makes him a threat and he could finish strong at Paris, while Molyneaux will have a partisan fan advantage at Cincinatti and the USO to make use of. You can make an argument for any two of this quartet to make it for sure.

I'm picking Perez and flip a coin between Molyneaux/Chiba. He is way too good not to make it ... but once again this stuff is going to happen if he doesn't pick up the pace, and now. He's still got seeding/draw preference to the rest of the group, which gives him the advantage for now. Obviously I'll try to grind it out for him with points from the smaller events - but he's got to not faceplant on those opportunities.

Long Shots

Harald Balzer - 2135
Tim de Jong - 2075
Ollie Haas - 1975
Samuel Aas - 1865

I have a hard time seeing any of these players break through the logjam ahead of them; the real drama is taking place between the contender quartet I expect.

[Christy]

My pick is that Rhodes gets dragged back down into contender status by the US Open and eventually loses out.

Chiba, Molyneaux and Perez all make it in in some order.

I think Solheim will fix himself up a bit. He has a lot of points from the early year hard courts and so could slip back into that groove.

As for pushing up next year. Perez should manage that a bit through people falling off. He is still improving and getting a ton of xp (620-640 a week on average) but those skill jumps get pretty pricy fast.

[Christy]

Not sure if you get notifications for this thread but if you do. Or happen to check it. Go schedule competitions for your players! Looks like you have forgotten

[Christy]

So we have a bit more info before the Two Masters/ US Open.

Chiba/ Perez and Molyneaux all only managed semi final results. Not a disaster for any of them but not enough to really stick their hands up again. Feels tough for Perez, another match he deserved to win and indeed was serving for it at 1 point. Stachovsky was a little behind with a final appearance and makes up that ground. Balzar takes a step towards being relevant with a win in Germany. Still off the pace of the other contenders but potentially within striking distance of reaching with a good hard court season. I think the 4 contenders all missed a good chance in the 500s to really stick their necks out.

One other point is that your scores seem to include the points from the later rounds of the World Cup from last year. Out of the group in contention for spots Balzar is defending 50 points that won't happen. Molyneaux is defending 150 which he will probably make up most of. Perez and Stachovsky are not defending anything and can get some free points though Perez is probably more likely here to pick up a few with both sets of matches happening on clay. Chiba is not defending anything but won't be scoring more points that way.

On the lower probables:
Solheim was absent during the warm ups and stayed in practice. Surprising and may struggle for form if he gets a bad draw in Canada. Rhodes is also out of sorts having played 3 weeks in a row and wrecked although only 250s so does not add anything to his total. Even with another win. Going off the above calculations 5th - 10th are within about 500 hundred points of each other.

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks for the warning - on the week I missed, it was just one of those brain fart things. I thought I had the tournaments set up, and had even done a couple training sessions in preparation for it. Happens to me a couple times a year usually - it's easy to miss stuff once in a while. As far as the WTC points, I don't worry about subtracting those out going in and checking all the players for when they lost the previous year, etc. That will all take care of itself as the calendar progresses this season.

August

Sushant Chiba played in the Washington 500 and lost in the semis as mentioned. He was lucky to get that far, needing a third-set TB in the quarters against Wentz who had beaten him early in the year. I went back and recalculated his rating to make sure nothing weird has happened. It's still up there at 8.57, a small decline from the 8.61 the start of the year. He's just not playing like it. Losing to Srba Dogic on a hard court is not a crime, but it's the first time he's lost in their matchups.

Amrik Kasaravalli got his first-ever big challenger win at CH+ Bogota, beating a couple of Top-50 players in the last rounds in close matches. He should be Top 50 himself by the time the next ratings supplement is released after the USO.

The younger players have mostly tripped and fallen over themselves. In two more futures outings they have yet to go anywhere in doubles, and Satyagit Guha is still winless in futures qualifying singles. Nasir Chittoor had a second straight bad-luck draw in his second attempt, drawing an American #1 seed at a tournament in the United States. Lost in three sets. The most recent try went better for him, as he won a few matches to reach the semifinals. Remarkably, Chittoor lost the first set in all four matches he played there, but came back three matchups in a row to win until his luck finally ran out. At least it was a decent tournament week for him, and he finally got a result to start moving up again. We're not really going to be happy about things until they start winning doubles matches again, but its a start.

[Brian Swartz]

Chiba continues to do his darndest to achieve the greatest single-season collapse in modern pro tennis history, losing in the third round of Canada to unseeded Jorgen Henriksson, 7-6(8), 2-6, 7-5. Slightly better on the key match stats but didn't play well enough at the most important times. That's a disturbing pattern when your calling card is having a 4.4 mentality. This is frankly quite comical at this point. The door is not only being held open for the other contenders, but there's a big flashing neon sign displaying TAKE MY SPOT above the door as well. Meikeljohn, Hughes, and Solberg all out as well so there's quite a bit of chaos in the draw.

[thehitcat]

Any Interest in creating a club amongst our Operations Sports brethren? Between Zorromorph, Christy, Britrock and me we have some pretty awesome firepower and other than Christy none of us are currently in a club. Perhaps we could even field a tourney for the dead period post-tour championship. Thoughts?

[Brian Swartz]

My main question would be, since I've never done it, what do clubs do? I.e., what would be the reason for making one, what good does it do us if we decide to, etc?

Congratulations to the managers whose players aren't stinking it up: Hart beat Perez in three sets for the Canada title! Then it was off to Cincinatti … where Sushant Chiba lost in the third round to an unseeded player. AGAIN. Gonzoles this time, in dual tiebreaks. This one I just flat-out deserved to lose. The other players have done better the last couple of weeks and I'll get to that tomorrow, but egads. Chiba is now below 70% on the season.

[Christy]

Perez has now faced players now ranked 1-7 14 times this season. Hart has accounted for 7 of them!
Still he has started running him closer on hard courts which is a good sign.

I get the feeling Chiba booked a holiday for the same week as the wtf and wants it off. He is sending out invites to other players at this point. Still he may be saved as no one wants that last spot. Stachovsky has gone out in r1 the last two weeks. None of the players in your long shot list took advantage of the chaos in Canada, generally going out to lower ranked players. Dogic was the exception and probably shouldn't be too harsh on himself going out to Hart!

That still leaves Chiba around 9th since Molyneaux and Perez have both done well but Rhodes has certainly not driven home his advantage and will likely slip further.

Perez did well in Canada alright. He got lucky with Jung upsetting Meiklejohn and being wrecked from a decent doubles run. Still Perez struggled against him and Rhodes when he shouldn't have before picking up a great performance vs Molyneaux.

Cincinnati was fine. Not much he can do about meeting Hart in the quarters. He tried anyway and came close but didn't manage it.

I have no idea what happens in a club. I joined one to find out and am none the wiser.

[thehitcat]

The one club I was in hosted a tourney at the end of the year (in the dead(er) period between the WTF and the first week of the new year. Other than that, and that's what I was suggesting as it would give us a place to play if we wanted to when others were idle. I don't know that there is much to do. Just a thought, if folks are interested I'll create it and we can join. If not no biggie

[law90026]

Originally Posted by thehitcat

The one club I was in hosted a tourney at the end of the year (in the dead(er) period between the WTF and the first week of the new year. Other than that, and that's what I was suggesting as it would give us a place to play if we wanted to when others were idle. I don't know that there is much to do. Just a thought, if folks are interested I'll create it and we can join. If not no biggie

Yup pretty much what happened at one of the worlds I was in when I still played. It’s useful to maintain that match form during that dead period and it’s best of 5 sets so decent for experience. Especially helpful if some of the best players are in the club.

[Brian Swartz]

Guh, I didn't know you could do that. I should have made a club and played my own players against each other. I'd be up for it if the others want.

[Christy]

Indeed. I had presumed such competitions were just for fun with no form/exp benefit.

[thehitcat]

What do we want to call the club. Ops Sports? Sri Lankan Devotees? Swartzhalle? No wait I've got it Anilophiles. The man who brought us all into this. I'll start it and then I'll put up the numbers here and two other folks need to put in the numbers. The three of us will then be founders and anyone else here can join.

[thehitcat]

Here's the numeric code for Club Anilophiles. First two to add it are founders the rest can just join at that point.

6A4QKE

[Christy]

I am in.

Interesting with the top 2 having little to no points to defend we could see a big shake up lower down with other players defending a lot of points across the board. Including Perez's biggest points defense yet.

I am also hoping his ranking bug goes away. It is in his favour (an extra competition is being counted) which I think is the game bugging out on his last challenger and counting it when it shouldn't.

His last challenger win times out this week so hopefully it will fix itself then.

[britrock88]

Great idea, and thanks for extending the offer.

[britrock88]

Re: Brian's summary on Narciso's progress above (I always appreciate the objective perspective), I'm probably being a bit too aggressive in trying to get Narciso some opportunities at 250s on clay. That said, there's a fair number of Brazilian challengers later in the calendar that will help buoy Joao's place going into next season, where perhaps a top 50-to-top 32 push will be in order.

[britrock88]

A note on Pargeter while I'm here: while the Kaspar doubles duo is excelling as anticipated, I'm having trouble convincing Castegeli's manager, kirchoff, to play 500s. That has accelerated the points dropoff for Pargeter, though it seems likely that the partnership should still settle at 4th-ranked (if not 3rd with some good results) by season's end.

[thehitcat]

And we have a club Here's the bit on club tournaments. Figure we'll plan it for sometime around Week 50-52 based on how people want to do it on here.

Club Tournaments
Here you can find the tournaments organised by your club. Only players from your club are allowed to enter club tournaments. They do not count for the ranking, but your players do get experience from playing in these tournaments. If a tournament gets less than 50% of the required number of participants it is cancelled. Players who registered for this tournament can then join another tournaments if they had multiple registrations. Senior tournaments with 16 or 32 participants play best of 5 sets.

[Brian Swartz]

Summer Masters

Sushant Chiba is down to his last chance here basically. After tripping and faceplanting in Canada and Cincinatti, he is down to the 4th seed for the US Open, where he was runner-up last year. Solberg and Hughes, despite not playing as well lately themselves, are close behind. Chiba will not be a Top 4 player anymore if he doesn't make a big run here, and maybe even if he does. It'll matter little at that point if he makes the WTF by the skin of his teeth, because he won't accomplish much there, never has. So this is pretty much it if he wants to remain relevant at the top of the game - which, by all appearances, he couldn't care less about.

Amrik Kasaravalli is starting to make his move. Lost a fairly close final in CH1 Beijing to Matteus Ameen, who is become a bit of a rival and has become a long-term top Challenger player … but will he ever ascend above that? Anyway, Kasaravalli then won CH1 San Marino in the next week, his second-biggest title ever after the CH+ he won a few weeks ago. He's working his way into that elite challenger class, now firmly into the Top 50 at #46. It's hyper-competitive to get into the Top 32 right now with over 1500 pts required; just over 1k at the moment so there's still a lot of work to do and further progression will be very slow. He should definitely be among that best of the Challengers group in the Top 40 by year's end though if he keeps playing well. He'll be defending last year's title at CH2 Como during the USO.

Satyagit Guha had a tournament week without Nasir Chittoor, due to Chittoor having actually done something in that last futures event. So Guha won an Amateur for the first time. Then it was Nasir's turn, blasting his playing partner 6-1, 6-2 in an unfortunate first-round meeting at FT3 Ghana. He would go on to get his first futures title, 12 weeks earlier than any of my other players so he remains ahead of schedule despite the growing pains. There were a couple of fairly close matches, but he was able to get through them. We got a doubles win before losing in the quarters, so gradual progress there. Another win or so at this level will have Chittoor, who gains almost 200 spots in the rankings with this one, ready to move up a tier. Both players will get a few weeks off now.